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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Re: deferred money It should make intuitive sense that the team which incurs the expense (either signing bonus or past salary) is obligated to pay it, even if deferred to the future. But here's a MLBTR post about Zack Greinke which illustrates the principle in a real-world example: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/latest-on-zack-greinke-2.html
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    This is incorrect. Any deferred salary already earned (say, from the 2015 season) is the responsibility of the team that he played for at the time (in this case, the Nationals), even if it's not to be paid until later. Same for the signing bonus -- it is the responsibility of the team that signed him, even if its payment is deferred. So any team acquiring Scherzer would only be on the hook for his 2019-2021 salaries (pending any cash negotiation with the Nationals, of course). At this point, that's roughly 2.5 times 35, or $87.5 mil (to be paid in installments from 2022-2028).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Value isn't determined in a vacuum. I'm certain that several teams can and would beat that offer.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick Burdi out for the year after thoratic outlet surgery: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/nick-burdi-undergoes-season-ending-surgery.html
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, on the day of the trade, Pressly ranked 10th among MLB relievers in xFIP- (min. 40 IP). Also 11th in K%.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Pressly showed more in 2018 for the Twins than just his last 10 games. For his whole season with the Twins, 47 innings, he had the highest Twins reliever K% since Joe Nathan. Solid ERA- and even better FIP-/xFIP-. All with above average leverage deployment too. He wasn't top 10 in baseball but he was plenty valuable to the Twins. If Duffey gets up to 47 innings this year (he's at 22 now), with above average leverage (he's at .68 now), and still has his same rate stats, I will also be upset if the Twins trade him for a couple 40 FV prospects.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly was pretty great for the Twins leading up to the trade, and our pitching coaches have done well (the Taylor Rogers turnaround last year, and Johnson's work this year). I mean, obviously it's a hypothetical with no way to test it for certain, but I think it's safe to assume that Pressly would have continued being pretty great in a Twins uniform.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Who's going to want to rent Schoop in exchange for MLB pitching?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    If no one claims him, the Aaron Hicks trade tree can live on!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry to further the tangent, but this is incorrect. Eppler replaced Jerry Dipoto, and there's been a pretty stark difference. In his ~4 years at the helm, Dipoto signed Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton (and soon ate $62 mil just to get rid of him), traded Chatwood for Iannetta, traded Segura to rent Greinke, and traded Clevinger to Cleveland. (In fairness, Dipoto also somehow turned Trumbo into Skaggs and Santiago, and Kendrick into Heaney.) Since Eppler took over, the Angels have only sent away 1 prospect of note, Sean Newcomb. And before you say "they shouldn't have traded him either", Newcomb has produced 3.4 WAR to date and has already been shifted to the bullpen by the Braves, while the Angels have received 18.4 bWAR from Simmons for only $31.5 mil so far. Eppler has also only signed one "big" FA contract, Justin Upton, who didn't cost any draft compensation and he's worked out well so far (helps that he was younger/cheaper than Hamilton!). Eppler's made some modest strides in the farm system too, taking arguably one of the worst systems and turning it into something functional despite a lack of tradable assets or high draft picks. (Certainly could do better in this regard, though.) I'm no Angels or Eppler fan, but the evidence says that where Eppler has really fallen down -- modest FA signings like Cozart, Harvey, Cahill, Allen -- is really not much different than where the 2018 Twins fell down too, with Morrison, Lynn, Reed, etc.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Preseason ZiPS for Longoria was 95 wRC+, 1.7 WAR. Although ZiPS now pegs him finishing with a ~86 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR based on his season so far. And as Brock alluded to, the Giants still owe Longoria ~$55.25 mil over the next 3.5 years.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, May did approach a couple spring trainings as a starter (Duffey may have too?), and even started his TJ rehab last year as a starter in the minors (maybe just to catch up in innings?).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed on Littell and May, but hasn't Duffey been an exclusive reliever for 2.5 years now, almost as long as Rogers?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think teams generally make a move like this 2 days in advance. If Buxton had a setback and wasn't ready Tuesday night, Astudillo would be ineligible to come back. Maybe not a huge risk, but certainly not worth it to get Astudillo an extra day of AAA at-bats.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to what others have said, the Giants need the best talent back from Bumgarner/Smith/Dyson far more than they need salary relief from Longoria.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Top pitching prospects near MLB?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    It's sort of a catch-22. The only guys who could bring back affordable talent are already affordable talent themselves (Buttrey, Canning, etc.). You're just spinning your wheels if you trade that. It's not like they've been sitting on good assets and letting them expire -- their assets have all just comprehensively sucked or gotten hurt. I am sure the Angels would have loved to trade Shoemaker or Richards at some point before they hit FA -- but both of those guys were injured for pretty much their entire last 3 years before FA. And Skaggs, and Heaney... there's not much you can do when that happens except weather the storm. Yet we applaud the Twins for getting Castro, Schoop, Marwin, Pineda, Perez, etc. in this price range or lower. The Angels struggles in FA are not due to any limitation of payroll. They're only at $158 mil, in a huge market, with the most recent $43 mil sunk on Cahill, Harvey, Allen, and Cozart. The Angels just need to sign better players. If the current FO can't do that, I don't want them to tear things down or give them more financial flexibility -- I want a new FO. (And FWIW, the Angels did change their FO in late 2015. Given what they were tasked to do -- completely rebuild the farm and work under the shadow of the Pujols, Hamilton, Weaver, and Wilson deals -- I think they've done enough to at least finish their 5 year plan, which would take them through 2020 and give them a chance to see Ohtani back on the mound and deploy some of the young players they've collected the past few years.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    They will absolutely move Calhoun if anyone wants to buy him. They'd likewise deal Upton if the return outweighed the cash they'd have to eat. With his contract up after 2020, Simmons will be on the block soon too once he returns if they fall out of the race. Why tear it down to the extent of dealing Buttrey? I mean, I guess if someone is willing to give up a huge prospect package for him, but that's unlikely. They've got Trout; they've got Ohtani; they've got Simmons. They have some controllable relievers, they have prospects Adell, Canning, Suarez. They're far from perfect but I hardly see how tearing it down at this point helps them.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    "Not selling" or "not aggressively selling" is hardly "shooting for the moon." Especially not on June 24th. No one denies that there will be more teams selling by the end of July than the aforementioned 7, but they're not selling today and may not sell aggressively by the end of July either (i.e. we can't necessarily count on another Pressly trade).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure how you figured "top-11"? The MLB non-pitcher walk rate is 8.8% this year. So 7.7% would be below average. (Among MLB teams, 7.7% would rank 25th, just ahead of the Royals.) And walk rates are also higher in the minor leagues. 9.5% in the IL this year, for example. 9.1-9.2% in the Southern League this year and last year, etc. And I'm not sure minor league BB% is all that correlated with SLG -- see LaMonte Wade. Reflecting this, and the change in competition, ZiPS projects Arraez to have a 6.2% walk rate the rest of the MLB season, which is indeed up from their preseason projection of 5.5%, but a far cry from his current 16.7%! Of course, Arraez could still be good/useful with a below average walk rate, or a sub-.400 OBP.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Schoop's sore leg didn't land him on the DL so I don't think it was much of a phantom injury for rest.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The Cardinals control Carlos Martinez through 2023. Their pitching depth has been tested this year, though. There was talk of them moving Martinez back into the rotation after the all star break, but I could see them waiting until later in the season or the offseason too. They're still trying to salvage something out of Wacha, but they will have him and likely Wainwright to replace in next year's rotation. I think their asking price for Martinez would still reflect that.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You know the Angels have Buttrey now only because they decided to sell Kinsler at the 2018 deadline? They also got an interesting lefty pitching prospect for Martin Maldonado last year too. (Their #7 prospect at Fangraphs, and one of their primary infielders this season, Luis Rengifo, is a product of trading CJ Cron the previous offseason as well.) They made a small sell trade at the 2017 deadline, dealing reliever David Hernandez for their current #20 prospect Luis Madero, in addition to buying relatively cheaply on Justin Upton. They made a pair of minor sell-type deals at the 2016 deadline too, when they dealt Hector Santiago for Alex Meyer, and also dealt reliever Joe Smith for a prospect. That's some type of sell component of every Angels deadline since they changed GMs in 2015. The Angels problem has more been a lack of sellable assets rather than an unwillingness to sell. Most every shorter-term guy they've had has seemingly seen his performance crater and/or gotten hurt. Tommy La Stella this year seems to be the exception that proves the rule!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You're assuming that the first wild card is all wrapped up, which isn't nearly the case yet. Every team in the NL (except those already mentioned as clear sellers) is still within 5 games of the first wild card. Even in the AL everyone is within 5 games too except for LAA (6.5) and CWS (7.5). Undoubtedly, some of those teams will turn to sell by the end of July, but right now, most of them probably want to see how the next few weeks shake out. And of course, there's a difference between not buying and selling aggressively too. If teams decide not to "push" but are only willing to sell their versions of Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler, I'm not sure that helps the Twins a whole lot either.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but what assets will they actually be selling for reasonable returns that will interest the Twins? Keep in mind, all 3 of these teams are already invested in contending in 2020 too. I see Wheeler from the Mets as an interesting expiring contract. Maybe Doolittle from the Nats if they decide to sell his last 1.5 years of control. Nicasio from the Phillies... maybe Alvarez...
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