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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering that Glasnow had been an elite prospect, with never so much as a hiccup in the minors (with good health too). Yes, he was bad in Pittsburgh, but in limited use, he was better than ever at AAA in 2017, and he was still young because he was a HS draftee. I think a lot of teams still valued him, not elite (top 10-20) prospect value anymore but top 100 or maybe even top 50 Meadows-type value. (Would be interesting to see guys like that ranked even if they have too many MLB IP/PA.) That might be close to a Balazovic ranking now even though it's a different profile. (Meyer was older, never that elite, and his value tanked with a rough year at AAA in 2015.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    This link is a good sanity check for trade proposals: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ Your Mets proposal fails badly, even without accounting for the fact that Graterol is still on the shelf with shoulder issues. Your Giants deal is only "maybe accepted" but they list Watson with 1.5 years control when 2020 is actually a player option. So that might be close, although I suspect it may not be all that distinguishable from other offers -- 40 FV prospects are fairly fungible.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And at Fangraphs, Archer had a career 92 ERA- / 87 FIP- / 84 xFIP-, compared to Stroman's 89/85/84. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,to&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=6345,13431&startdate=2012-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31 Previous 3 years by ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- Archer 98/93/80 96/80/76 104/88/86 Stroman 71/88/82 130/92/91 67/78/88
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you sure about that? At the time of the trade, Archer had a career 107 ERA+ and his three most recent season marks were 100, 103, 97. Stroman has a 113 career mark, and his three most recent are 145, 76, 148.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, Morin, Magill, and Mejia all had disastrous final games for the Twins. It wasn't at all clear that these were guys you'd want to keep around until July 31st.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Tim Mayza, maybe? He has some good numbers vs LHB, although his K% is actually lower vs LHB than RHB. And he might be a bit too much of a project for a pennant race acquisition...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. Diekman, maybe? But I'd be wary of adding too many current KC relievers if I am try to compete right now!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Biggio is getting deployed as a utility guy right now, but the Jays probably wouldn't prioritize adding another MLB-ready middle infield prospect like Gordon right now (unless they really, really like him, of course). I could see them wanting to replace Gordon with a pitcher, an outfielder, or a catcher.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that. That's not a bad package (and it passes at baseballtradevalues.com), but I think Detroit will be looking for more quality than just quantity with their best trade asset. And with 3.5 years of control remaining, they have some time to decide too. Unless of course Detroit suspects Boyd's 2019 K rate is just a mirage (or won't translate into sustained success) and want to cash him in now, in which case maybe *we* don't want to make that deal...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    No worries. It's admittedly confusing!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Waiting until you actually make trades to DFA Morin and Magill doesn't really gain you anything, though. It just prevents you from seeing Littell, Stewart, and now Stashak in the meantime. (Yes, Littell did have one bad game vs Oakland, but it's not like Magill or Morin would have been better bets, especially after Magill's disaster against the Mets).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    No, that kind of league priority was only part of August trade waivers, which no longer exist. Outright assignment and release waivers go by record first, regardless of league (with league used as a tiebreaker if two teams have the same record). Link: https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3527
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Philadelphia and Seattle both have waiver priority over Cleveland by a considerable amount. And of course, if Cleveland wants them, there's nothing stopping Seattle from flipping Magill to Cleveland. (Technically Philly could flip Morin too, although it might be harder for them to justify letting a bullpen option go right now!) But, if we explored their trade value, and found no one offering anything more than the $50k waiver fee, we might as well just sell them for that waiver fee to a preferred destination rather than actually putting them on waivers. Even though Cleveland is our top competitor, we don't want to strengthen the rosters of our other divisional foes (CHW, DET, KC) who we still play many times yet this season; nor do we want to help any potential wild card competitors (chiefly OAK, TB, BOS). The primary reason for putting a guy on waivers would be to hopefully pass them through to AAA. That was likely not an option with Morin and Magill, as both have the right to reject such an assignment and elect free agency -- and likely would have done so.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Nothing concrete has been reported, other than they've had discussions but no agreement. I don't think it's necessarily anything controversial. Berrios was still a year ahead of schedule for a Severino/Nola type extension. It's quite possible he wanted that kind of money, but the Twins wanted a little more discount for committing to it a year early (i.e. something more like the Polanco/Kepler deals). By next winter, they may both be on the same page.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems unlikely. The Phillies gave Morin a 25-man major league roster spot (in a pennant race, no less); seems doubtful they would think he's not worth at least the $50k waiver price. It's maybe slightly more possible with Magill and the non-contending Mariners, although a guy worth a 25-man roster spot to any team is still probably worth the $50k waiver fee. This isn't even a "sneak a guy through waivers soon to stash them at AAA" situation, as both Morin and Magill can elect free agency if they clear waivers. (Which is all the more incentive for the Twins to look for a deal, even a cash deal, rather than request waivers on them.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    No, May is out of options. I suspect Stewart or Littell could get sent down.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I read this more as Berrios reassuring Morin (like "it's not you, it's them"), rather than complaining about the front office.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    International dollars isn't even actual cash -- it's just the right to add that amount to your pool. If it was international bonus pool money, it would be specified as such. Generally, cash considerations is comparable to the waiver fee (probably a little bit more, to entice the Twins to make this trade instead of just putting Morin on waivers). The waiver fee for outright assignment waivers is $50k.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Waivers always last for 3 days, regardless of how quickly anyone puts in a claim. At the end of the 3 day period, the player is assigned to whatever team claimed him with the highest waiver priority. The DFA period is a max of 7 days. So given that you need 3 days for the waiver period, you basically have up to 4 days to work out a trade, and if that fails, you put him on waivers.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think those levels are like MLB spring training: they seem to only log the minimum number of pitches necessary for the PA outcome. So regardless of what pitch sequence actually happens, they log 3 (all strikes) for every strikeout, 4 (all balls) for every walk, and 1 strike for every ball in play. Cantorino had 4 Ks and recorded 5 other outs to complete 3 innings, and gave up 1 hit and no walks. Thus we see (4*3) + 5 + 1 = 18, all strikes. Basically, no one is recording the actual pitches, so the software just makes something up to satisfy itself.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Gordon has a 94 wRC+, his 2nd worst minor league stop to date, ahead of only his 2018 disaster at AAA. Out of 15 Red Wing players with 100+ PA this year, he ranks 12th in wRC+, and 2 of the 3 guys behind him are gone from the org already. (And after a hideous start, Ronald Torreyes might still catch him.) And that's with the benefit of a .360 BABIP for Gordon. Hard to judge defense from afar, but Gordon also has the lowest fielding percentage of their top 3 SS and top 3 2B, although he does lead those SS in range factor. He's still relatively young, and he's light years ahead of his epic 2018 slump, but objectively, it's hard to see how his prospect stock hasn't fallen in 2019 (or hasn't recovered much among those who downgraded him after 2019).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless he is added back to the 40-man roster, Moya will be a minor league free agent at the end of this season anyway. So it seems the Twins won't have to release him to be rid of him soon, but nor will they be able to take much advantage of his relative youth anymore.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Who cares about the miles on his arm if he's a short term rental? And if the prospect price reflects the fact that he's a rental, that should be fine too. And Bumgarner is FAR more likely to be actually available (especially to the Twins) than Greinke.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the Twins tidbit: Hasn't this been reported before? Doesn't seem like much at this point.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Would Gardy even know any of our current prospects? That was 5 years ago already. I think only Gibson, May, and Polanco (barely) even played under Gardy in Minnesota: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.shtml Unless by "Gardy's boys" you mean we somehow trade them Ft. Myers manager Toby Gardenhire.
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