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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Adderall Mejia. His starts will be the ones to stay awake for and pay attention to.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    To focus on the positives: Very exciting that Mejia made the rotation! While I also wanted to see Duffey continue starting, I guess it will be nice to see him in the majors too. Hopefully with Haley around, Duffey isn't just put into mop-up spots either.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Grossman has never played a professional inning at first base. Has he been worked there this spring?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I love that Gimenez owns a 1B mitt and has played a few games there in the past, but I hope that's not their 1B platoon partner for Mauer...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That is a good observation. Who is the backup 1B? If the backup is the LHB Kepler, that probably doesn't bode well for platooning Mauer. Or could it be Sano? Has he taken any reps there this spring? He only has 14 career pro innings at the position.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    In other words: Danny Santana is kind of the position player equivalent of Tonkin at the moment, no?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope not. There was nothing to really suggest that was going to happen, or that it would be a good thing.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with all of this. Belisle was kind of a "meh" way to commit a bullpen spot, with Kintzler already in the fold, not to mention Pressly. Plus Breslow? Plus Haley? We should have been able to target some kind of upside there instead, and still give Tonkin one last shot if no one else pushed him aside this spring.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Single season in the current decade, you mean? Millenium would be Morneau's 2006. Total this millenium or decade, Delmon is only 10th in Twins RBI.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Melotakis was slowed by injury early in camp, no? And Hildenberger ended last year with some elbow issues and isn't on the 40-man. And neither has pitched in AAA yet. I think it makes sense to let them both debut at AAA to open the season. I fully admit Tonkin shouldn't hold those guys back in a month or two, or even hold back a decent waiver claim starting today, but at present time, he's the most logical option to occupy that bullpen spot.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Which looks suspiciously like the strategy of the old FO too...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt, he had issues. But would you rather trot him out there again and see what happens? Or cut him to add a warm body like Wimmers? That's the choice we face today.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    10 K/9 over a full MLB season, versus only 3 BB/9, is a sign of success. If Chargois or one of the relievers you listed had already done that, I'd probably want them on the roster too. Is there a better alternative than Tonkin to plug in today? Surely not Wimmers. Probably not quite Chargois yet either. I could have gotten behind a theoretical winter acquisition taking his spot, but today I just don't see one in the org. No point in flushing that away today for no good reason.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I still think Vogelsong would have had the inside track (at least for a bullpen job) with any kind of acceptable performance this spring. But he sort of made the decision for us. Although that's definitely a step up from TR/Antony, who wouldn't even let Jason Bartlett retire after a 4-for-43 spring...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't quite put Tonkin in that group today. Beyond K rate, he's actually dominated in the high minors and shown signs of success in MLB too. And not necessarily because he's older -- he first reached AAA and MLB at age 23, although he's hung around now for a few years. He's obviously not a sure thing, but I think he clearly deserves one more chance over the alternatives available today. Even if reliever moves are by definition pretty low-margin, I would have been upset had we cut him today in favor of Wimmers.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    While looking at reliever stats, I noticed Minnesota native Brad Hand had a pretty good relief season with the Padres last year. He was claimed off waivers from the Marlins last April. Off the top of my head, Will Harris was an Astros waiver claim from the 2014-2015 offseason and has turned out pretty good too. Hopefully the Twins can make some good claims in the next month (and hopefully they have the lowest waiver priority in the league after that ).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, league is only the top priority for August trade waiver claims. For outright assignment/release waiver claims, the first priority is record regardless of league. http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3525
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be huge, but so far Sano is trending the wrong way. Here are Bryant's spring training K rates: 2014: 55% (11/20) 2015: 32% (14/44) 2016: 24% (15/62) 2017: 21% (12/58) Here are Sano's to date: 2016: 31% (20/64) 2017: 43% (22/51)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Three Rule 5 relievers have already been returned. Any of them more interesting than Tonkin or Haley? Caleb Smith: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=smith-005cal Tyler Jones (former Twin!): http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jones-002tyl Hoby Milner: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=milner001hob Jones is actually slightly older than Tonkin...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I too would have liked more interesting options acquired this winter. But not much more you could do with this group, right now. Given their past usage of Tonkin, I don't think they will hesitate to drop him when a better option comes along, so that's good. In the meantime, might as well roll with him again.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    To get his 2016 line up to a .260 AVG, Sano would need to add 10 hits, for a resulting BABIP of .371. That K rate is going to have to come down for that average to go up, and it doesn't look like he's made any progress toward that goal so far this spring. (Although to be fair, leaguewide AVG is down about 15 points in the last 10 years -- .259 was the MLB non-pitcher average last year. Maybe there's not so much shame in a lower average, although it would cap his upside at "good hitter" rather than "great hitter")
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer moved back to Minnesota in 2013 after the birth of his daughters: http://www.twincities.com/2016/02/16/fatherhood-has-grounded-joe-mauer-but-twins-first-baseman-anxious-to-win/
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    But at this point, the Twins will pretty much have to pay free agent market rate to extend him. Especially if he continues to produce. They could actually trade him, collect the prospect(s), and then re-sign him after 2018 if they are willing to pay the price to extend him. Whatever they might save in an extension now (assuming he'd be willing at all to accept a discount, which is not clear), they'd probably more than make up in the prospects acquired and in the extra ~2 years to evaluate Dozier.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    But we don't have Dozier for the next 4-5 years -- only 2. And in this hypothetical midseason trade, only 1.5 years, and only 1 with any chance of contention (assuming we'd already be out of contention to trade him midseason this year). Also, judging by your .786 OPS prediction for 2017 Dozier, it would appear that circa 2012 Pedroia, Cano, and Kinsler would be a different class of player, no? A .786 OPS in 2017 would easily be the second-best of Dozier's career to date. A .786 OPS in 2012 would have represented a career low for Pedroia or Kinsler. Cano at that point had 5 seasons clearly better too, including the previous 3 in a row. I agree that any trade return wouldn't be a sure thing, but it wouldn't be quite so hard as you suggest to match Dozier's expected value under his remaining contract. Heck, one of the examples of a bad return you cited (Jarrod Parker) actually put up 5.7 bWAR in 2 seasons for league minimum salary -- obviously not ideal but not a disastrous return on 1-2 years of Dozier either. Zach Wheeler might still return some cheap production too. Montgomery as well, although it will be harder if he is relegated to a bullpen role. Again, that's not the outcome you target with a Dozier trade, but that kind of outcome can still help balance the ledger.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't have a dog in this particular fight, but I suspect the Dodgers have innings concerns about Urias which would not apply to Berrios.
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