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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Furthermore, nowhere in his article does Lavelle attempt to put the Buxton thing in any kind of post-Stroman trade context, or in the context of his initial Lewis/Kirilloff report 4 days ago (which he completely ignores). I'm guessing the Twins and Mets have not discussed Syndergaard since the Stroman trade occurred.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That doesn't make sense. The Mets originally wanted Lewis/Kirilloff, then got Stroman, and then decided they didn't want Lewis/Kirilloff but rather Buxton? What does Buxton have to do with Stroman? They were never planning on punting 2020, not with deGrom, Conforto, etc. If anything, getting an MLB player like Stroman separately should make it *less* likely that they'd have to demand an MLB player be included in the Syndergaard deal.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    This "established MLB player" stuff isn't entirely clear either. Some reports just said they wanted a SP to plug in Syndergaard's place (which could even be a guy like Perez?). I am pretty sure if the Padres offered Gore tomorrow, the Mets would forget all about the "established MLB player". Likewise, I think if the Twins had been willing to engage on Lewis/Kirilloff, as was the Mets reported ask 4 days ago, then Buxton's name likely doesn't come up today. (Not to say the Twins should move Lewis/Kirilloff for Syndergaard -- but you have to admit, in PR terms, it's much harder to justify holding on to those two than to hold on to Buxton.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Graterol has to be added to the 40-man by November anyway. And I'm not sure we'll fill our empty spots by September. I agree, it seems unlikely given the shoulder rehab. But maybe they want Graterol to get some September innings anyway, to make up for lost time...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    This is exactly what I was talking about. And this is the reaction that Lavelle's source was likely looking for by naming Buxton (a reaction they probably weren't getting 4 days ago after the initial report naming Lewis/Kirilloff).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Why was there no mention of Buxton when Lavelle and his sources first reported on this four days ago? The Twins and Mets had already talked about Syndergaard at that point, and Buxton wasn't mentioned at all -- just Lewis/Kirilloff. Buxton as a requirement of any Syndergaard package doesn't seem like the kind of thing that could possibly be overlooked, does it? Mind you, I don't think Lavelle has an ulterior motive here -- it's likely his source, trying to paint the Mets as the more unreasonable party. And it's a lot easier to do that by invoking Buxton than Lewis/Kirilloff -- even if the former was only brought up after the latter were denied.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    From the Syndergaard thread: Sure enough, Lavelle was among those who reported 4 days ago that the Twins had talked to the Mets about Syndergaard, and that the Mets were interested in Lewis and Kirilloff: http://m.startribune.com/twins-interested-in-noah-syndergaard-but-mets-asking-price-high/513224672/ So reporting this Buxton thing now seems like an effort to deflect from the Lewis/Kirilloff question. In any case, I knew it was a long shot, but my hopes for Syndergaard are pretty much dashed.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure enough, Lavelle was among those who reported 4 days ago that the Twins had talked to the Mets about Syndergaard, and that the Mets were interested in Lewis and Kirilloff: http://m.startribune.com/twins-interested-in-noah-syndergaard-but-mets-asking-price-high/513224672/ So reporting this Buxton thing now seems like an effort to deflect from the Lewis/Kirilloff question. In any case, I knew it was a long shot, but my hopes for Syndergaard are pretty much dashed.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    While I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets had an unrealistically high asking price for Syndergaard, I wonder about the context of this. It has already been reported that the Twins feel Lewis and Kirilloff are untouchable -- if they told that to the Mets, there probably wasn't much for the Mets to do but ask about a player on our MLB roster, or hang up.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas is 36 years old with the following stats over the last 2 years: 125 ERA- / 117 FIP- / 114 xFIP- That's like Ricky Nolasco Twins numbers (134/104/104), but 3 years older. Getting $2 mil salary relief for that guy seems like they did all right. Heck, they might even beat him when he starts for the Phillies!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the values change that frequently. Also, they have been keeping score with all the trades as they happen here: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/real-life-scorecard-tracking-our-values-against-the-2019-summer-trade-deadline/
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The 18 year old has been in A ball all season, not rookie leagues. Maybe he's the next Deolis Guerra.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I mean, we certainly could have beat it. If not Balazovic and Duran, then Graterol plus one of those two, I would think those offers could have topped the Mets. (Not to mention, Lewis or Kirilloff could do it too!) The question is, do you want to beat it by offering that much? I'm not sure, for Stroman. Especially if those prospects could be part of a Syndergaard deal instead. Now, maybe a Syndergaard deal is a long shot at best and we should have grabbed Stroman instead. It's worthy of debate. Hopefully the next few days give us some more data.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    And those guys are all rated at 40 FV or lower at Fangraphs, below the two Mets guys. Obviously we don't exactly how the Jays view all of these guys, but it's not clear-cut that we could have easily beat it.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It could be competitive but I don't know about "easily beat". Fangraphs has these two at 50 and 40 FV, while both of the Mets guys were 45 FV. MLB Pipeline seems to grade higher, and has them all at 50. (Another factor could be that Thorpe is on the 40-man right now and Duran will need to be added this winter. The older of the Mets guys will need to be added this winter, while the younger one won't be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2022 season. Again, not a deal-breaker or anything, but it could be a factor.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor doesn't have any track record of this kind of success, he's way out-performing his FIP this year, and his July performance looks like he might be coming back to earth. I'd take him over Leake for sure, though.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say the Mets got him for almost nothing. For example, those two prospects are 45 FV at Fangraphs. The only Twins pitching prospects at that level or higher are Balazovic (45), Duran (50), and Graterol (50). 2 of those 3 probably beat the Mets offer -- but 2 of those 3 is a fairly steep price for Stroman too!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I really doubt this. Stroman doesn't have any leverage in the matter. If it's a guy stuck in AAA or a mediocre veteran or something, sure I could see a team doing him a "solid" and sending him to his hometown. But Stroman has too much value for that.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    2 years less, actually. Ray has 1.5, Boyd 3.5.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Matz/Vargas/Syndergaard are currently lined up for the 3 Cleveland games. But obviously it depends on if/how they fit Stroman in there. (If they simply insert him into Wheeler's spot, it may not matter.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. And also with the structure of Parker's contract, with a lower base plus incentives for appearances. (Although if they had doubts about Parker finishing the season way back then, they probably could/should have aimed higher last offseason too.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Why should the Mets rebuild? They have Alonso, Rosario, and McNeil for 4-5 years, and Conforto for 2 more after this year too. They have deGrom for 3-5 more, Diaz and Lugo for 3 more, Syndergaard for 2 more. They're far from perfect, but I'm not seeing the need to rebuild.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically and precisely, yes, 0 WAR is replacement, but in reality, we'd expect replacement level player performance to fall within a range. And that range actually ventures further into positive WAR territory than you might think, because guys who are in negative WAR territory tend to get cut. In full-time play, I think of -1 to +1 WAR as a a general replacement level range. Cron has had a few seasons in that range, but is a still a little bit above that. So I agree that I wouldn't call him replacement level -- but one doesn't have to be replacement level to be replaceable either!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    They were both in the all-star game bullpen in 2018 too, which could have involved some further fraternization. I also wonder if there were some off-field, cross-team events during the Twins-Cleveland series in Puerto Rico...
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