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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed! I can buy an argument for a particular pitcher to stay at his current level, working on something specific with the coach there, etc. But the Twins aren't promoting anyone worthwhile for the pen, anywhere. The only mildly interesting bullpen guy to switch levels so far this season is Nik Turley, from AA to AAA, and he's almost 28 years old. Meanwhile, stuck in AA, we have Melotakis and Rosario, both on 40-man, in their second option years. Plus Burdi, Bard, Van Steensel, and Curtiss, all of whom would need 40-man protection after the season. Same for Hildenberger at AAA. All while Rucinski, Tepesch, and Wilk have been added to the 40-man and given MLB innings.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that would be the plan with Breslow too, but his usage so far doesn't really support it. Pretty hard to "flip" a mop-up reliever. That said, Breslow doesn't have a strong "LOOGY" history -- he usually averaged an inning per appearance in his career. He even got the Red Sox to give him a couple starts at the end of 2015 season. Could be reinventing himself a bit late in his career? Not sure it would be a particularly valuable re-invention for player or team, but there you go...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine for Burdi, if they are willing to do it. But there are other interesting arms in AA too, and none of them are getting promoted anywhere yet, even though there is obvious need in MLB and in AAA too (Wimmers' spot, for one).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Breslow has generally been effective this year -- but he's clearly become the mop-up man. His 0.52 game-entering leverage index is among the lowest in the league. We are 3-12 in Breslow's 15 games this year, which gives you an idea of when he is being used. Can Breslow get stretched out to be the long man, so we can drop Adam Wilk to add a 5th starter? Otherwise, as we've seen with Tonkin, having your mop-up man be a short reliever isn't a good use of resources.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    We're past the Chargois 2016 AAA promotion date -- he made his AAA debut on May 10th, 2016. I don't think we want to push this back any further -- if a young pitcher doesn't debut until July, that gives you very little time to evaluate their readiness and adjustments before you have to make important trade deadline decisions.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Players get a fourth option year if they've used all 3 of their options before they have 5 "full" pro seasons. "Full" generally means above short-season leagues (i.e. rookie ball) but there is a disabled list component too, and I think Rosario would be eligible based on his 2014 not being "full" (he spent fewer than 30 days active before spending the rest of the season on the DL). http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Would still like to see more K's from Rosario, even if it mean throwing fewer innings, but he is definitely better in the pen this year than starting last year. I think Rosario's injury in 2014 will make him eligible for a fourth option year in 2019, but still, it would be nice to see some urgency in potentially getting near-future MLB contributions from someone among our bullpen prospects.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he is still in that range. Seems unlikely that he finishes at .850 this year, based on components thus far. Just regressing his BABIP to .355 (which would still be a career high for him), which is simply taking away 4 singles from his 2017 line, and he'd be having a .798 OPS so far. Downgrade two triples to doubles (which would give him a career normal triples rate, and a career high double rate) and he'd be at .784.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    IBB are included in total walks, so it's not "2 more". It's actually 2 less "real" walks. Which is worth noting, because it cuts his 9.5% BB% down to 8.3%. Still a big improvement on 2016, although he was at 7.3% in 2015.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Gordon is looking pretty good, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. He has a .391 BABIP this year, and his ISO bump is largely dependent on triples. His BB% is up, but his K% is too, and his SB are way down. He's still a solid prospect, no doubt, but I think it's early to suggest he's ascending to elite status.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Tommy Milone too. The Twins need a starter for Saturday, though...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, De Leon is back! On a rehab assignment anyway, pitched his first game last night. Obviously no guarantee of health going forward, but we could have some data coming in for him soon.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    For me, I'll be happy with the right components (Buxton driving the ball, showing patience, limiting K's, and Berrios limiting walks/HRs and maximizing K's). Of course, if they do those things, they will probably hit those modest AVG/ERA targets anyway. Buxton would only have to hit ~.266 the rest of the way to finish at .250. And a 4.50 ERA may only be a 90 ERA+ in the current offensive environment.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Neshek was pitching in a lower strikeout environment. League average K/9 is 8.4 in the International League this year; in 2006, that figure was only 6.9.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there was a side discussion of Nick Burdi going on here... unfortunately with a lot of pronouns in place of proper names!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I don't think it is quite "much ado about nothing." There is still the matter of whether Wilk has much promise as a reliever, why we are trying that midseason instead of last offseason, etc. Also, has it been announced that they are permanently moving him to the pen? Or is he just not starting Saturday, but could start in 10 days or so like Tepesch did?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Any hint on the corresponding move yet? Tepesch DFA? Haley back to the DL? Wilk through waivers again?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Adam Wilk(es Booth) was the Mets replacement starter for Matt Harvey (Oswald). Kind of a metaphor for the Mets season thus far...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Even though I don't understand the move, if he is still on the roster when the team returns home next week, I will be the first to greet him -- Wilkommen!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins are busy preparing a new promo video, extolling the virtues of their latest acquisition. It'a called "Triumph of the Wilk."
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Rostering marginal pitchers is taking a Wilk on the wild side!
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Also -- if Adam Wilk is really an effective relief candidate, why not sign him in the offseason? Then you would have more time to prepare him, in spring training and perhaps even in a brief minor league assignment. There is a cost to attempting this conversion on the fly in MLB. Also, Adam Wilk has been a free agent in each of the last FIVE offseasons. Never been signed by the Twins or either of Falvey's or Levine's clubs. Either they have been ignoring his relief potential for a long time... or he's just another stopgap addition to this staff.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Goodrum is an interesting player. Basically every year of his pro career, he finished between 97-114 wRC+, until he spiked up to 133 in a partial season repeating AA last year. Down to 85 is his AAA debut but it is still very early. A switch-hitter with pretty even splits, plays a variety of positions (I don't know how well). He was a second round pick in 2010, so he had some pedigree to start out with too. K rate is a little high, but it seems possible that Goodrum could be better than, say, Danny Santana (faint praise, admittedly).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No one is concerned with using Rucinski's last option year. It's a nice bonus for flexibility, but he's 28 years old. If he's somehow still around and can't crack the roster next year at age 29, he can be DFA'd just as easily then.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I would generally agree with you -- but we already know that MLB players do get concerned when their GM doesn't sign or trade for players they think the club needs to win. Sometimes I'd take the GM's side in those disputes, but It's not too much of a stretch to think similar feelings might be brewing in the Twins clubhouse now, as it becomes apparent that the Twins Plan A for the bullpen (and perhaps Plan B for the rotation?) was to rotate whatever minor league mediocrities through the spots, regardless of whether the alternative would be prospects or MLB acquisitions. And it would be awfully hard to take the FO's side in this one, without resorting to "I trust the plan" platitudes (which can still mask all sorts of misgivings).
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