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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Just curious, when were those streaks? (Honestly just looking for a good tool to easily identify them!)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, it's not a binary issue. His arm didn't fall off in Colorado, he started noticing an issue then. An issue one could expect to get progressively worse. Similar to what you'd expect if a batter tweaked his wrist. Maybe he shakes it off, plays through it, and does all right for a few games -- but it could get worse over time.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Nick Nelson's not a troll. It's a small sample, to be sure, but wouldn't you also expect the effects to get worse over time? It's not a binary thing. If he noticed the problem in the COL series, it may have affected his performance more later. In which case, the most recent results would seem to be most relevant to the discussion. Has he had other streaks of 1 swinging strike out of 42 pitches? How normal is that? (I honestly don't know.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Good news for Mejia, is that we're only 3 weeks away from roster expansion. And the Angels were a good fit for Mejia before, and probably an even better fit now -- SPs Pena, Canning, and Heaney have all hit the DL since Mejia's last stint in LA. A couple relievers to the DL too.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll absolutely join you in rooting for Dobnak! I didn't mean to cast aspersions on his chances, but you have to admit, he's already been overlooked a few times in North America. That profile profile doesn't preclude success here, of course, but suggests he may eventually find greater opportunity elsewhere. "Most succesful run prevention SP in the org" may not be all that meaningful. Albers may have held that title in 2013. Remember Dietrich Enns? 1.73 ERA in a full minor league season in 2016, 2.05 the year we acquired him in 2017. Yohan Pino may have been close at times. Kris Johnson, Pat Dean, Dave Gassner, they all had some very good run prevention seasons in the minors.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The Angels claimed Mejia back again: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/angels-claim-adalberto-mejia-waivers-cardinals.html
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the attempt to look on the brighter side, but isn't this a "good teams should beat up on bad teams" situation too, like the Twins recent successes? It's not like Clevinger's track record of success is limited to the last 6 games. He should be a tough opponent (although certainly not impossible to beat).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sac flies count in the denominator of OBP, but not in AVG. So Cave likely has a SF in that sample, but zero BB or HBP.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Or, they have plenty of room on the 40-man right now to give Dobnak a look, and they're not too concerned about the risk of losing Dobnak on waivers eventually. We promoted Andrew Albers to the 40-man in August 2014 too, it didn't mean he was a part of our future. (I wouldn't be surprised if Dobnak eventually wound up in a foreign league too, although he is young enough he can probably ride the AAA shuttle for a couple years first even if he doesn't stick in MLB.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Stroman had 28-30% K% at AA/AAA. Soroka was around 30% at AAA. Even Hendricks, who was kind of an unheralded prospect, reached 23.3% at AAA before he got the call to MLB, in a league with a 19.8% rate. (Dobnak is at 19.0% in a 22.7% league at AAA right now.) That's not to say success is impossible for Dobnak or anything. But his ability to miss bats in MLB will be something to watch.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Dyson had two poor months with the Rangers to begin 2017 (April and May), and his time with the Giants that year was better but not really very impressive -- 4.03 ERA, 4.08 FIP, only 6.4 K/9. I'm comfortable saying his entire 2017 season was sub-par. (His 2015 with the Marlins was pretty mediocre too, especially considering his relatively low leverage use.) But otherwise, you are correct -- Dyson had excellent, high-leverage seasons in 2015 after he left the Marlins, 2016, 2018, and 2019 (before coming to the Twins ). That's more like 3 seasons of really good performance.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so. Returns weren't much higher around the league -- Wood, Kolarek, and Phelps each returned a single non-top-30 guy; Diekman, two. Daniel Hudson returned the Jays current #30. Strickland and Elias combined returned the Mariners current #22 and #27, but the Mariners system quality might be suspect? There really isn't that much difference between 20-30 and 30-40 rankings in most systems either (or at least, different evaluators could easily flip guys between the the two ranges). Add to it that Dyson was heading towards a ~$7 mil arb award for 2020, and the return looks to be in line with the market.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I suppose many MLB success stories have some part inspiration and some part desperation. The 1990 and 1995 teams certainly had some pitching weaknesses, but they also didn't have too much urgency to rush anyone -- neither club was contending. Same for 1998 and Eric Milton, also straight from AA. When I think of true desperation, I think of Brad Thomas straight from AA in 2001, as part of a merry-go-round to find 1-2 acceptable starters in a contending season. This year's pitching promotions have felt a little different than that so far, thankfully!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Liriano had 14 starts at AAA before his first call-up. Radke and Erickson skipped AAA, though.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not even sure they waited that long. Falvey and Levine probably sprinted to make the move before Acuña's HR even landed in the 8th.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I wasn't really arguing xFIP vs FIP superiority or anything, just noting it to give the FIP some additional context.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No prob. Here's the link: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this rhetorical?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios is still very good, but one does wonder if he is really kicking his performance into a higher gear quite yet. His ERA looks good this year but his FIP/xFIP still lag behind: ERA/FIP/xFIP 2017: 3.89/3.84/4.51 2018: 3.84/3.90/3.89 2019: 3.24/3.76/4.34
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Keuchel has gotten good luck on balls in play it seems -- but he has had some bad luck on HR rate. His xFIP is only 4.06 which is much closer to his ERA and rest of season projection, and ahead of Perez.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Over .500 as of now: 6-9
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    This would put the Twins 40-man roster at exactly 40 again. Hasn't been that way for awhile! If they need to add Graterol eventually, I'd guess Diplan would get the boot. Eades would be another candidate. And Astudillo could go to the 60-day DL at any time now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Almost certainly Stewart.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Mets have a bit of the Cleveland problem coming up -- they've got a tougher schedule remaining than some of their competitors. But still, they've won 12 of 13. They are definitely taking care of business vs worse teams right now! And they're only 1 game out of the wild card (PHI), 2 games out of the wild card lead (WSN), with plenty of head-to-head matchups with those clubs. Even if they ultimately come up short of the postseason, they should be playing very meaningful games for awhile yet.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    At that point, though, you're pretty much just doing the same thing as looking at his overall numbers for 2019, which aren't that impressive.
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