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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Still can't believe that 4 years of Andrew Miller cost less than the 3 year Phil Hughes extension...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not opposed to a trade but I wish we had been looking more aggressively internally. Hildenberger should have a month-plus of MLB experience by now, including some leverage appearances. Reed and Bard could be getting looks by now as well. (Why is Bard still in AA?) No offense to Jorge, but Romero could have a spot start already in preparation for a possible pen assignment later. We had 4 months before the trade deadline to find internal solutions and I don't think we've done a good job of that. Breslow, Wimmers, Belisle, Haley, etc. Hard to get excited about a potential deadline deal in light of that approach.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't worry about it. Maybe just an asterisk note if one of those teams had a game in-progress at press time? Even then, you'd probably only have to note it for teams around the top / around the Twins -- I don't suppose we're too concerned with the day-to-day jockeying of Detroit and Chicago right now! In theory, B-Ref has some nice embedding tools, that can be defined by date --- but they don't update promptly enough to be of any use here. Not sure of any others. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2017-07-03
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I posted this elsewhere too, but the Angels don't need a 5th starter for a while, thanks to an off day and the all star break.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You are right. Minor league players can have their contract renewed 6 times, so parts of 7 seasons if you count their original contract. So Rodriguez, as a 2011 draftee, is eligible after this season. Bard and Zack Jones would be after 2018, as 2012 draftees.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    On that note, last week I heard that Molitor said the Breslow DL stint was timed so he'd get a little extra time off with the all star break too. Not sure if that was just an empty statement to add authenticity to the transaction, but in theory that could mean another pitcher would have to be removed by that time to activate Breslow.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if this deserves it's own thread, so I'll just put it here: Vargas optioned to AAA, Adrianza activated So we still have 13 pitchers. On the horizon: Haley set to make a rehab start in AAA today (Tuesday)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Bard apparently has some good spin rate: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/25111-depue-gonsalves-on-spin-rates-haley-on-his-role/
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Burdi is already out with TJ surgery. Bard is still buried at AA. Help us, Jake Reed, you're our only hope. (And John Curtiss)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Gonsalves threw 7 IP last night for the third consecutive start. 25 batters faced, 101 pitches.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. His IP/GS average since his pitch count debut this year (6 starts) is pretty much equal with Berrios' AA stint in 2015. His pitches per batter faced are a hair higher, though, which sounds like what you are getting at (3.72 for Berrios, 3.94 for Gonsalves). I have to admit I don't really have a frame of reference for pitches per batter faced, but just eyeballing other AA starters, the following guys have already been promoted to AAA or MLB this season: Luis Castillo (Reds) - 3.93 pitches per batter faced Andrew Moore (Mariners) - 3.86 Brent Honeywell (Rays) - 3.86 Chance Adams (Yankees) 3.96 A reliever, but Burdi was at 3.90 this season before he got hurt. Should Gonsalves' 3.94 really be considered a deal-breaker, just for a promotion to AAA at this point? It's already an improvement on his 4.18 mark from his AA debut last year.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand your point, but I wonder if you're expecting an unbiased precision to the whole thing that even the Twins couldn't possibly deliver. I am sure they have lots of data, but I am sure a lot of decisions are as much art as science. There's a limit to how long you can shrug your shoulders about sample size and such over an already mediocre 37 year old reliever.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt Breslow bravely facing this injury is what inspired the offense to score twice in the first inning tonight.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure I understand. Right now Gonsalves is on pace to have 117 innings when the minor league season ends. My point is, if you want him to get more than that, in preparation for 2018, you'd like him to work beyond the end of the minor league season this year. And given his performance and proximity, that should potentially be in MLB. But, the longer they wait to promote him to AAA, the less likely they will promote him to MLB yet this season. I know, in theory they could promote him whenever and wherever they want, but we all know in practice it's not as likely with notably less AAA time (think of it as an extension of the general disinclination to promote directly from AA). And if they wait until September 1st to even consider it, they are probably more likely to push the whole thing off by saying there's not enough time left in the season to justify clearing a 40-man spot, etc. So, to ensure he could be up for September, he should probably be ready for consideration to debut anytime in August. He's almost certainly already disqualified from making his MLB debut on August 5th, like Duffey did in 2015 (Duffey made his AAA debut on May 23rd that year). Given his performance, I don't think his injury should have held him back from potentially debuting in early August. (Obviously if he didn't adapt well to AAA or anything, you wouldn't have to promote him, but it would be nice if the option was more realistically -- not just theoretically -- on the table.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If we fall out of the race, they could activate Breslow and let him finish the season/career gracefully, and give him a nominal chance to "showcase" himself for other teams, to the extent that's possible anymore. In the meantime, I guess he can hang around the team in a coach/leadership capacity too, at least until he needs a rehab assignment. I'd rather have the 40-man spot, personally.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Rogers and Duffey are young, in terms of experience. You'd pretty much have to credit Breslow and Belisle with most of their 2017 improvement, though, to justify their continued presence on the roster (and like I said in my previous post, that would also justify an extravagant coaching deal).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    This is basically an appeal to authority argument, which isn't necessarily bad in truly nuanced cases, but I don't think we're at a truly nuanced case here. Belisle has been consistently allowing runs in close games for 3 months now. Whatever his issue is, it's not a blip in the radar. He's 37 years old with a modest recent track record, and no recent history of high leverage usage. That's enough evidence to draw some conclusions. In order to credit Breslow with enough leadership, leading to tangible results in others, to offset his own performance and roster concerns, we'd probably be justified offering him a multiyear contact as pitching coach at ~$4 mil annual salary.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    No one is really saying we'd have to rely on those three, are they? Just keeping the possibility open. If we don't promote them to AAA until after the Futures Game or something, we pretty much preclude the possibility. They can still be aggressive at the trade deadline, but having those guys with some innings under their belts at AAA would give them options to augment that (or cover for it, in case the trade deadline isn't fruitful, which is a definite possibility regardless of our willingness to be aggressive).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't the injury actually open the door to expect Gonsalves in Minnesota in September? If he had been healthy opening day, he'd almost certainly be viewed as a candidate to be shut down at the end of the minor league season like Berrios 2015, Meyer 2014, etc. But when he missed the first part of the season, we had to be looking ahead at a plan to keep him active through September. So I would have probably pushed him to AAA already, so he could potentially be an option to start in August if needed like Duffey circa 2015. If the AAA transition wasn't smooth, you could always fall back on an AFL stint to give him some more innings instead.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure the bullpen was that beat up heading into Tuesday. Thanks to Berrios, only Belisle (4 pitches), Boshers (4 pitches), and Busenitz (15) threw on Monday. And thanks to Santana, only Boshers (18) and Kintzler (9) threw the day before that. So for our Tuesday pen, we had 4 guys with at least 2 full days of rest, 1 more with 1 whole day, and 1-2 more coming off fairly minimal use the day before. The problem is not that they were beat up, it was the composition. A rested Breslow means nothing for contributing either innings or effectiveness. We've got a few guys who are too good to use when we're trailing, and a bunch of guys who aren't trusted / able to get many outs regardless of game situation.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    How much are they giving back through poor performance? Belisle actually blew a lead in his only appearance in Cleveland this past weekend, and was bailed out by the offense, Rogers, and Kintzler. And how much are they complicating the roster? Breslow was unavailable for the series opener in Cleveland after an inefficient attempt at mop-up relief on Thursday, which necessitated adding Gee apparently and playing with a very short / nonexistent bench. And even if they had a positive effect, at what point can they remove one or both of these training wheels from the roster?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Hildenberger and Busenitz have already met the Breslow standard -- any lingering doubt about them being unable to replicate Breslow's recent results is almost certainly outweighed by both of them being optionable. Boshers too. So they can be rotated for a fresh arm as needed. This is only going to get more important as Hughes returns and we try to roster Haley again, without any SP upgrades on the immediate horizon (and more doubleheaders). And again I dispute your assertion that Belisle has the ability to pitch effectively in the highest leverage situations, but give up multiple runs on a regular basis otherwise. His outings may have followed this general pattern so far in 2017, but that does not prove this specious ability exists. Relying on it to continue is a bad bet. If they want to keep Belisle in the Breslow mop-up role for a bit, that's fine, but again I'd be ready to drop him for a fresh optionable arm as needed. Maybe Reed or Curtiss or even Romero for a look before the trade deadline.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I totally get the argument that one bad game can torpedo a reliever's ERA for while. But Belisle has had multiple bad games, evenly spaced through the season. Capable MLB relievers don't just give up multiple runs in close games every other week. And they certainly aren't capable of "pitching to the score" by only giving up runs when we're already behind. We should consider ourselves lucky that it hasn't burned us more up to this point and move on. I'm not sure Belisle and Molitor can keep up this jujitsu for much longer.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry for the analogy, it was just a joke. Was navigating around some neighborhood kids today (didn't hit any, for the record!). Belisle has in fact blown 3 leads this year, in his 32 appearances. And he has given up a run in ~30% of his appearances. And he has a 6.99 ERA. Jason Grilli just got DFA'd, with a 6.97 ERA, 2 blown saves in 26 appearances, having allowed runs in ~30% of his appearances. I don't expect perfection, but the fact that he is still on the team is rather unusual given his performance, much less being run out in high leverage situations still, no matter how you slice it.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The Blue Jays just DFA'd Jason Grilli and his 6.97 ERA. Grilli's plea that he hasn't allowed in run in ~70% of his appearances must have fallen on deaf ears. Belisle and his 6.99 ERA must be feeling the heat!
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