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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup! But since then, we've lowered our projection by 2 wins -- and Cleveland has improved theirs by 10. I would hope a streak like Cleveland's would change those odds considerably! We're still favored for the division, about 60% to 40%, probably due to the schedule -- but if we don't want this to be a photo-finish, we've got to play like Cleveland has since June 2nd, and/or hope that Cleveland plays like we have since then.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The Straker comment makes sense -- we needed a third starter, and he was clearly the only viable starter beyond our top 2 that season. But Hawkins had the top game-entering leverage index on the staff in 2003. Pitching him in a tight spot in the 7th inning, even after pitching the day before, certainly "helped get them there" more than Rincon and his average leverage index that season. (Rincon wound up walking 4 Yankees in his 2.1 lower leverage innings anyway, so I sort of doubt he would have fared much better in Latroy's spot in game 2.) Romero's leverage index was higher than Rincon's, but of course he was a lefty specialist -- bringing him in to face Soriano and then Jeter with a runner in scoring position and only 1 out was certainly not part of what "helped get them there". (FWIW, Romero came on after Hawkins in game 2 and gave up a single anyway, to a LHB no less, an outcome which would have lost the game just the same.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking at the replay, I wonder if Naquin should have been playing deeper, so he could have had a play on that ball? It wasn't a high fly, but it was far from a line drive either, and it bounced before the wall. As you note, the runner on first was so important, Cleveland should have been playing its best "no doubles" defense, and Marwin was batting RH and Hand was consistently pitching him inside, so it would make sense to have the left fielder playing as deep as possible, to be able to make a play on exactly this type of hit behind him. A lot of factors involved! I totally understand the criticism of the send with only 1 out and the game already tied, but we were sure battering them around that inning -- it was frankly a bit surprising that all of Naquin, Lindor, and the catcher made solid plays.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not as if Gardy had a lot of options that year though, especially after Johan exited early in game 1. Rincon wasn't that good yet, and Romero had a tough year. That pen was basically Hawkins and Guardado (and Guardado gave up runs in both of his appearances too).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Your count is correct. 25-19 seems pretty doable for Cleveland though too. Fangraphs takes into account strength of schedule, and that's basically what they project for Cleveland the rest of the way (technically 24.7-19.3 ). They project the Twins as 1 game better, at 26-18.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey -- it's still technically possible! We just have to get Ervin back in the organization by August 31st, and the Syracuse Mets are just about eliminated from the IL playoff picture...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't disagree, but take it up with this article's author, who wrote 20.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Team LOB was 10, but if you add up the individual player LOB, I think you get 20, as a few were left on by more than 1 guy.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    If you read the whole article, it says Carrasco "has thrown a few bullpen sessions already, he didn't bounce back well after the last few times. This will be a resumption of that process."
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Mejia is doing his best to prove himself fungible, it seems. In his two appearances with St. Louis, he recorded 9 outs... and allowed 9 baserunners. In his first two games back with the Angels, he's recorded only 1 out and allowed 5 base runners (3 by walk). If he keeps pitching like this, I'm not even sure it's possible to stretch him back out for starting at the MLB level in 2019...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Compared to league average, I think 1963-1964 could still be considered more prolific HR hitting seasons than 2019 too.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Carrasco has been throwing bullpens, apparently, but still not clear if he will return this season: https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-carrasco-bullpen-sessions-for-indians There's also Salazar, but he's very much a wild card too (and he was only an iffy starter the last time he was healthy too, in 2017).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    "Dumpster diving" is a common enough expression that, by itself, I don't think it's really "equating a human to trash".
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, by my count, the Twins have been below .500 since June 2nd vs. non-awful teams, 13-18. While Cleveland has been 18-10 vs non-awful teams. That difference is over half of the 11.5 game swing in the standings. (And the other almost-half could be characterized either as Cleveland beating up on awful teams at 23-6, or as the Twins underperforming vs awful teams at 17-10.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Plutko looks like a good match for our Twins. Career 2.4 HR/9 -- 37 HR in only 139.2 innings.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Saturday starter, Plutko, looks like a good match for our Twins. Career 2.4 HR/9 -- 37 HR in only 139.2 innings.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, just after our most recent Keuchel discussion here, he was lit up for 8 runs on 10 hits (3 HR) in 3.2 innings by the Marlins! He'll need some more good performances to get his season numbers back to respectability now...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Mets took game 1 of a big series vs the Nationals last night; now only 0.5 games out of the 2nd wild card, and 1.5 behind the Nats for the top wild card. Four teams separated by only half a game for that second NL wild card spot. Six teams within 2.5 games for both spots.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    An update on my two posts from yesterday... Since June 2nd, when we had an 11.5 game lead: Cleveland has gone 23-6 against truly bad teams (DET, KCR, BAL, TOR). But they've also gone 18-10 against the rest (not all world-beaters, of course, but not truly awful like the aforementioned clubs). The Twins have only managed 17-10 against truly bad teams in the same stretch (DET, SEA, KCR, CHW, MIA), and 13-18 against the rest. (Our trend may be improving vs bad teams, though, 8-2 in our last 10.) So we're in this position, in part, due to the Twins own relative under-performance vs awful teams, and in part due to Cleveland's strong performance against non-awful teams. The Twins have 26 games remaining against truly bad teams, while Cleveland only has 16. That's an advantage for the Twins, but we'll still need to reverse the trends of the last 2 months to prevail.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins bullpen sitcom title: "Just the Ten of Us" Theme song, appropriately, "Doin' It the Best I Can" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq74ud4Ra2M
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The other Randy Dobnak descriptions would seem to suggest "sitcom neighbor" rather than sitcom dad. Although I suppose it depends on the sitcom!
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    A guy like Diplan, or Eades? Perhaps -- they're not really needed in 2019 anymore, and not likely to survive the offseason on the 40-man either. But more likely, it could first involve a 60-day DL move, with Gonsalves and Hildenberger as the likely candidates.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    In the time our division lead has gone from 11.5 games to zero, our lead over the 2nd wild card has also dropped from 9.5 to 3.5 games.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In a minor league trade (the only kind the can happen in August now), the Twins have acquired outfielder Ian Miller from the Seattle organization. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=miller000ian Could be more AAA depth, but could also be a potential pinch runner once rosters expand -- he's averaged 56 steals per 162 games in the minors, with an 83% success rate, and he is only 27 years old.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Not so sure. With Stashak already replacing Cruz, we still have 7 rested relievers. And only Eades and Romero are eligible to return anyway. Poppen is eligible to return Sunday, I think.
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