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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I pretty much assume that by the end of his career, LaTroy Hawkins had been teammates with everyone on Earth.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    What would you have said if the Mariners took Enlow at 55 and signed him for $2 mil? That the Twins passed on him and made it pretty clear they had other priorities? Teams don't readily admit when and how their drafts don't go as planned. In any case, I just thought it was interesting. I don't necessarily have any grand theory here, it is just fun speculation and another player to track in pro ball.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Some have suggested they were hoping he fell to the third round, like Enlow. Or speculated that perhaps the Mariners would be unable to sign him, or have to do crazy slot gymnastics to do so.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Carlson signs with the Mariners for $2 mil: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article157506834.html So it sounds like we could have taken/afforded him instead of Rooker or Leach. Probably Enlow too. Should be interesting to watch unfold.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Any thought to sending Berrios out for the 9th? Only 97 pitches, after throwing 108 last time. He has averaged 102-103 so far this season. I think starting the 9th would have been reasonable usage. Although Kintzler would have had to warm anyway, and he ultimately got the job done too.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    It only had to be in the offseason if we accept your premise that virtually none of the remaining AA-AAA arms are even worth a timely AAA promotion. I don't accept that premise, and don't trust it coming from this FO yet. These pitchers are obviously not perfect, but I don't think they should have been prejudged as irredeemable for 2017 given the alternatives. Although even in the offseason, Blake Parker and Dominic Leone were available to us on waivers. If they really didn't like anyone behind Chargois or Burdi, this FO had an odd way of addressing that concern. Anyway, I'll bow out here, I've sidetracked this thread long enough!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The second tier was already a pretty injury prone group (Chargois, Burdi). Relying heavily on them and Belisle/Breslow/Haley, and failing to adapt to fairly predictable injuries/ineffectiveness, was a bad plan. So yeah, I am a little skeptical at this point when the same minds that cooked up that plan tell me it's not worth pushing basically any minor league arms. Obviously the book on this FO will be written about more than just this season's bullpen, but so far it is a demerit. But I digress.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Not late on Reed, obviously -- late on doing anything with any minor league arms. Obviously there must be something this front office *thinks* they don't see in this group of minor league relievers. The question is, should we trust them? And more importantly -- have they offered a compelling alternative?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not really "looking at numbers over stuff"-- I guess that's a tangent of a tangent. : ) I was just skeptical that there was enough difference between Reed and guys like Bard or Melo to explain the last few months of org bullpen inactivity (even just AA to AAA movement, since these level of arms are unlikely to successfully skip the AAA step). I'll gladly give Reed a chance, and I hope you are right about him replacing Breslow very soon, even if it seems awfully late.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't mind ranking them that way, but I don't hold up the line for going on 3 months to wait for Reed either. No reason other guys couldn't have gotten a look in the interim, either at AAA or in MLB. Where would you put Curtiss? Same age as Reed, taken one round after him, much better numbers than Reed over the past year since going to relief full-time (35% K% at AA this year, 0 HR, .138 BAA). Seems like enough interesting arms, and enough dead weight ahead of them, and enough of a need at the MLB level, that they shouldn't be looking at their first taste of AAA in late June or July.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Reed's best numbers were from 3 years ago. It's his more recent numbers that aren't very exciting. ~25% K% at AA last year and again this year, ranking about 8th on the team, similar to Van Steensel and Nick Anderson. 22% at AAA so far last year and this year, admittedly smaller sample. His BB rate doesn't stand out either. Thought about giving him credit for minimizing HR -- but same career HR rate as Bard, a tick higher than Hildenberger, etc. I'll grant that I missed the reports out of spring training, but his numbers didn't look very good there either before he was reassigned.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I get that, but it doesn't seem terribly consistent with being our best minor league shot at helping the pen in 2017. For example, Melotakis finished 2014 at AA, missed the whole 2015 season, and started back at AA in 2016. Reed feels a lot closer to guys like Bard, Hildenberger, Melotakis, etc. than our definitive best minor league pen option.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure. Was brought up as evidence that maybe the Twins were right not to promote any other relievers. I'm not picking on him, I've barely seen him.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Hmmm... why Reed and not Bard, even just for a AAA look at this point? 2 years age difference, but the same number of minor league innings. Bard was a first round (supplemental) pick, way back in 2012 but he basically missed his first 2-3 years with injury. Reed was a 5th round pick in 2014, and has been relatively healthy among Twins relief prospects since then, but he just hasn't performed all that well since 2014. And if Reed is our best hope, why did they have him first report to AA this year, and not AAA where he finished 2016? He could have been ready for a MLB look right now.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    In non-Twins draft news, I found this on Sam Carlson from Sunday: http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-sign-first-round-draft-pick-evan-white-and-25-other-draftees/ Using this tracker, it seems like the Mariners have gone underslot enough to offer Carlson about $2.035 mil (his slot value at #55 was $1.2 mil). They could tack on an additional $336k if they are willing to pay the $252k tax on it (75% tax on the overage, I believe). Assuming the money's not needed in rounds 11+, of course. https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/6/15/15812484/2017-mlb-draft-signings-tracker Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    At this point, I think Randy Rosario's struggles are more indicative of more bad bullpen judgement on the FO, than any kind of blanket condemnation of all of our minor league relievers. (And I still think Rosario's presence was more about his 40-man status than anything else, which likewise isn't an excuse when we've had 40-man spots to play with.) I mean, the guys who are committed to Belisle and Breslow -- it's not much of a stretch to say they might pick the wrong reliever out of a group of minor leaguers too. (Which is why cycling through a couple more and letting performance dictate who stays may have been the more prudent strategy.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the issue many of us had is that they weren't cycling guys like that. Randy Rosario wasn't called up until June 1; he and Busenitz have a combined ~14 days of MLB service so far. They still aren't cycling guys like that, really, considering Breslow is still soaking up short low-leverage work for no discernible gain.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so. I certainly don't remember Gee's name from back then (and as the puns attest, it's a notable name ). Technically the Mets wouldn't have been allowed to trade Gee at that time (2007-2008 offseason), since he was just drafted in June 2007 -- and even though they could have done the Trea Turner "player to be named later for 6 months" trick, it would have been an odd move considering Gee was only a 21st round pick and relatively unknown at the time. He was not listed among Sickels' top 20 Mets prospects entering 2008, and never really rose above C/C+ later anyway. By comparison, Humber was the lowest graded prospect we received per Sickels, at B-, and even he had been a B+ the previous winter and snuck into some national top 100 recognition. Gee's MLB results remind me a bit of Kyle Gibson's, but for Gibson it has been seen as an under-achievement, while Gee probably gets over-achiever credit.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that it affects the larger point, but Romero's surgery was in 2014-2015, and he returned at single A last year.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, there is. Not sure if it's terribly accurate without Statcast data, but It's part of defensive metrics like DRS: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, that game was against the Rays. The next day was the blown lead against the Astros.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    There is probably something to this. Twins pen ranks 7th in MLB in save/hold percentage, and not for lack of chances -- we also rank 7th in total saves + holds. A league-average save/hold percentage across our opportunities would have yielded an additional 3-4 blown saves thus far.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Any of Tonkin, Wimmers, and Baxendale could be sent to AA, based on middling AAA performance alone not to mention lack of a future in the org. Nobody has to be given walking papers yet, if there is any concern about losing minor league depth or filling the vacated AA spots. (Mickolio would be another option for demotion, although I'm guessing we promised him a longer leash?) On the starter side, now that we've added Melville, Heston, and Wilk to the AAA starting ranks since the season began, Pino and Tepesch could be near future releases if we want too (assuming they don't want to be sent to AA, or we have better replacements in mind for AA). Most of these guys will be minor league free agents at season's end anyway, except Baxendale. (I'm assuming Wimmers gets removed from the 40-man again by that point.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Why shouldn't there be a rush to promote Bard to AAA? Like you said, he's Rule 5 eligible this winter unless we add him to the 40-man, but that decision and his 40-man future are a lot more up in the air than someone like, say, Gonsavles. I would think we'd want to push Bard and get more data to better inform those decisions. Also, given his injury history (and perhaps his family history?), who knows how long this success will last for Bard? I think we'd want to make the most of it while we can.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Not so much the system, but in MLB and at the upper levels, Tampa has quite a few starters. That affords them some freedom to experiment with Hu's role, if they want.
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