In general, I agree, but: MIN SP vs NYY this year: 29 IP, 7.45 ERA, opponents batting .333/.423/.624, .431 wOBA NYY SP vs MIN this year: 26.1 IP, 8.54 ERA, opponents batting .312/.394/.651, .424 wOBA Yeah, Berrios didn't get a start vs. NYY, but Tanaka didn't get a start vs MIN (and Paxton only got 3 innings due to injury too). The Yankees were also missing Judge/Gregorius/Hicks/Encarnacion for half of these games, and Stanton for all of them. Among Twins regulars, only Sano/Arraez missed the first 3, and Buxton the last 3. So who knows how a short series could play out. Plus the Twins have a solid starting 5, but only the top 4 matter in the playoffs. The Yankees will have a bigger advantage being able to lop off their worst performer, be it Sabathia or Happ, than the Twins will have being able to lop of theirs (Perez?). Yankees top 3 SP by FIP right now: 92 FIP-, 89 xFIP- Twins top 3 SP by FIP right now: 82 FIP-, 91 xFIP-