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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    If Mauer starts in a platoon role and hits well -- what are the odds that Molitor would remove the platoon restrictions and we'd see his numbers fall?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that the one opening day start that Mauer missed was in 2009.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    So Dozier's rookie season struggles, when he never batted leadoff, is going to be used as evidence that he's just not as productive outside the leadoff spot? Also, RBIs is a poor measure of anything meaningful. It is a counting stat. You would want to look at opportunities and how many he converted -- after all, you wouldn't want to judge Dozier as a less productive hitter down in the order if it was a function of batting behind worse hitters.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    A single season split (like PA with men on base, etc.) is, by definition, a subset of a single season.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, if you need a fresh arm at some point, call up Wimmers to pair with Haley. I don't care. But it shouldn't be plan A. If they didn't like Tonkin, they've had all offseason to find a better project on which to invest that roster spot. I'll be disappointed if the best they could manage was Wimmers, a guy who cleared waivers himself at the beginning of the offseason despite having all 3 options remaining.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Wimmers can be autocorrected to Winners, so I guess that is a point in his favor.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt. I don't have any great affinity for Tonkin anymore, and I am fine if the team wants to cut him now. I just don't want to see him replaced with a redundant, low-upside mop-up guy. That would lead me to question the new FO, not about Tonkin, but about an obviously substandard allocation of roster spots. This team shouldn't be trotting out Haley AND Wimmers in its opening day bullpen, regardless of how they feel about Tonkin.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although I think there are some combo's here that would be cause to question them. Keeping both Wimmers and Haley would be one of those -- that's just too much of a roster investment in low-upside mop-up work for my tastes.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct, Jay can still absolutely be a good reliever. I do agree with Cody, though, that based on his record and profile, his ceiling is likely more Glen Perkins than the Miller/Chapman names thrown around.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Just looking at the current closers in MLB: Kimbrel, Holland, Robertson, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera, Jansen, Melancon, Edwin Diaz, Osuna, Seung Hwan Oh, AJ Ramos, Street, and K-Rod were never starters in AAA (and often never starters at all). http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/REcloserorgchart/closer-depth-chart
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to take this off track, but I think this is a mischaracterization. I don't know of any "saber" argument that bullpens aren't important. They may have argued that the save stat isn't particularly important, nor is limiting good relievers to 1 inning appearances, but I don't think there has ever been a general "saber" argument against the importance of bullpens in general.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier was better with the bases empty in 2016, but a subset of a single season is such a small sample it is pretty meaningless. He was also poor in high leverage situations in 2016, but you wouldn't suggest pinch hitting for him because of that, would you? You wouldn't use single season platoon splits to make him a platoon player, would you? That's basically what you are doing by using his 2016 bases empty split to justify batting him leadoff.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    At +34 PA for the season, with his 2016 rates, Dozier would hit 2 extra HR, 2 other XBH, and 8 more times reaching first, while batting leadoff. All more likely with no one on base. At +81 PA with men on base, it would add baserunners to 5 solo HR, 5 other XBH, and 18 more times reaching first. It seems pretty evident which is the bigger contributor to team run scoring, no?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins leadoff batters had 34 more PA than Twins #3 batters last year. Which is worth more? +1 total PA every 5 games (likely with no one on base) or +1 PA with men on base every other game If you've got a ton of great hitters in your lineup, it probably doesn't matter. Likewise if Dozier was surrounded entirely by scrubs, maybe it doesn't matter so much. But the Twins have some very strong OBP guys in Mauer and Grossman, with hopefully more to join them soon. And some sizable question marks in their projected middle of the order bats (Sano, Park, etc.). And a few terrible OBP guys at the bottom of the lineup. Seems very wasteful to bat Dozier ahead of the best OBPs, and behind the worst OBPs, without a compelling reason.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you want your best HR hitter hitting behind Castro/Gimenez, Escobar/Santana, and whoever else they stick at the bottom of the lineup? (For 10 games this season, we will even have a pitcher batting.) Or would you rather have them hitting behind Mauer, Grossman, Polanco, etc.? Also, Dozier's 2016 numbers are skewed because he only batted leadoff slightly less than half the time. For a better comparison, look at Detroit -- they had a pretty steady lineup last year. Conveniently, their regular leadoff hitter Kinsler and regular number 3 hitter Cabrera each had 679 total PA, but Cabrera had 81 more PA with men on base. Basically every other game he was coming up an extra time with men on, as compared to the leadoff spot in the lineup. Is that an advantage worth flushing away, for uncertain player comfort? (As has been pointed out in this thread, no matter what he says about preferring the leadoff spot, Dozier's numbers in the cleanup spot were great last year.) Unless your lineup is overflowing with talent, I don't think so.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Tonkin is out of options. Wimmers has options, but he is not on the 40-man roster, he is on a minor league deal, so he can be assigned to the minors this season without being optioned or clearing waivers. Chargois is on the 40-man but of course he has options left.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, JR Graham actually had a similar spring 2 years ago: Haley, 2017: 7 G, 10.2 IP, 15 H, 10 R, 7.59 ERA, 3 BB, 11 K, .333 AVG, 1.69 WHIP Graham, 2015: 10 G, 14 IP, 18 H, 10 R, 5.79 ERA, 6 BB, 7 K, .333 AVG, 1.71 WHIP
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Marco Hernandez has two option years remaining. He was added to the Red Sox 40-man in Nov. 2015, so 2016 was his first option year. Here's a list of out of options guys -- it obviously includes a lot of players who have zero risk of hitting waivers this spring (Zach Britton!) but it is a good reference point: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/out-of-options-2017.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, that was Opening Day Starter Livan (On a Dream) Hernandez! If he was ever in a "backend competition" that spring, it probably related to the size of his posterior.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    4th option year is same as all others. The Twins are free to option and recall Vargas as many times as they wish this season.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario did in fact improve his K rate significantly after moving to the pen in 2016. (It was pretty abysmal as a starter.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if the Tigers pen is all that bad. If Mark Lowe's leash is shorter, plus more innings from Bruce Rondon and a debut by Joe Jimenez, they could be solid.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that Dombrowski is gone. I too have been cautious about writing off the Tigers in recent years, but it could be their new brain trust can't keep up like Dombrowski did. (And of course, the money thing with Illitch's death could be big.) They got through 2016, but how they adapt in 2017 will be pretty telling.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Melancon has been rock solid in that role for 5 years, though. I think Hughes is going to need the better part of 2 years to regain any real value around the league -- he's just way too fragile and inconsistent at this point.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I got a chance to go to a game inside this weekend, Sunday afternoon. It's a little weird -- you have to enter the stadium on the NW side, and then walk all the way around the concourse inside to sit on the SW side. Makes it quite a trek for a family. (The concession stand seemed pretty disorganized too, in contrast to my experiences at Target Field. We waited for 5 minutes at a register, received no service, and we left.) It did feel a little lacking compared to the Dome, although I remember the Dome feeling most inadequate during afternoon games too. I probably would have enjoyed the experience more if it wasn't ~60 degrees and dry outside.
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