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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Pre-arbitration contracts, like Mejia's, aren't really "guaranteed" at the MLB minimum rate. Those players get the MLB salary while they are in MLB, but get a lesser salary if they are sent to the minor leagues during the season. (I assume it doesn't matter whether they get to the minors by option or outright assignment.) If such players are released during the season, they can get the rest of the contract -- but at the minor league rate, rather than the MLB rate. (And I assume if they sign elsewhere, it offsets.) If they are released before the season, they get some termination pay. https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3534 Of course, as noted by others, Mejia has yet to be released or even outrighted to the minors, so none of this applies to him quite yet anyway.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite -- Vargas spent the 2018 season at Rochester on that outright assignment first. Players with less than 3 years service time who have never been outrighted before can't refuse the outright assignment. That's what likely gives guys like Vargas any value, in terms of waiver claims -- the potential to stash them in the minors for up to a year off the 40-man roster. Once the season was up, and the Twins hadn't yet put him back on the 40-man roster, Vargas was a 6 year minor league free agent. Then he signed in Japan.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    No, you do need to roster the player for at least 1 MLB game (or 48 hours, whichever comes first): "8. A player acquired off waivers cannot be Designated for Assignment for at least 48 hours after the club is awarded the waiver claim or until the player has been on the claiming club's MLB Active List for at least one MLB regular season game (whichever comes first)." https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3535
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    For roughly a half season of relief pitching, I'd guess home/road splits are pretty meaningless. He had 4 games with multiple runs allowed this year, and all 4 came on the road. All four were night games, on grass* too. I don't know that those splits would have much predictive power. * No, not that kind of grass!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Only August waiver trade waivers prioritized league before record, and those indeed don't exist anymore, starting this year. Outright assignment waivers and release waivers have used record regardless of league at least the past few years.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems quite a bit different than the Strasburg situation to me, I guess. Strasburg was dominating MLB, and these guys aren't exactly doing all that great at AA (not poorly, but modest enough to question their MLB readiness).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Kubel had just hit for a 1.119 OPS at AA, then .958 at AAA before his call-up. Larnach has a .773 so far at AA.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Even with Buxton out, though, we've got Marwin for corner OF duty, plus we've put Arraez out there, and it wouldn't kill us to do the same with Adrianza as long as his bat is solid. We may only need to play Cave when we give Kepler or Rosario a day off.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be all for bringing them up, but Larnach is striking out 33% of the time in AA, and Kirilloff isn't exactly doing great down there either. So I'd anticipate scuffles in MLB from them that could likely last through September and October, which sort of nullifies the value of calling them up now. Given our roster, I don't think Cave needs to play all that much anyway. So I'm not that desperate to find someone better than Cave at the moment.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    You know, with Sano walking slowly out of the batter's box, the pitcher hunching over as if he dared not look back to see where the ball would land... I really doubt that Acuña will get singled out for his reaction on that play.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. Rooker isn't Rule 5 eligible until after 2020. Now, he's old enough and close enough that I don't necessarily think they will wait that long, but obviously an injury has delayed him. Even if he comes back in August, he might be due for a bit of an adjustment period if promoted to MLB. Perhaps we'll have a big enough lead in September to check him out, for potential postseason inclusion?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the info. Here's the tweet: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1158123550315831301?s=20 It's cool to say he's similar to Verlander, but that's not much context for how useful "Bauer units" are. Below is the top 45 in 4-seam fastball BU for 2019, per Baseball Savant (apologies for the image quality). Some good pitchers, some bad pitchers. (Luke Bard!) The 2019 Twins leader would be Mejia. Cody Allen makes an appearance. Jerad Eickhoff and Tyson Ross are right there with similar velocity and spin as Smeltzer -- but very different results.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    From my head? As a general comp, I thought it wasn't bad -- Duensing was a non-overpowering LH SP who had a nice run for two Twins playoff teams. And while it's unlikely, Smeltzer isn't that far from being in our top 4 SP which would set him up for a playoff start. Some folks here want him to be top 5 even when Pineda comes back, which would mean he's only an injury away.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not picking on Smeltzer, or the Dozier trade, or trying to project him to Duensing type career. And obviously Smeltzer only has 27 MLB IP so far, so we're not at a great confidence level with any of these stats. Just noting the similarities, and pumping the brakes in my head on the thought that he should be a permanent rotation member right now, especially in the postseason. Here's another stat look, K% vs league SP K% 2009 Duensing 15.3% vs 16.6% 2019 Smeltzer 20.4% vs 21.9% Same comparison for first AAA season 2007 Duensing 17.8% vs 18.2% (age 24) 2019 Smeltzer 23.1% vs 22.7% (age 23)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Does Carlos Torres count as an ex-Twin? The Giants just signed him, albeit to a minor league deal. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/giants-sign-carlos-torres.html
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Smeltzer has certainly impressed so far. But does anyone get a 2009-2010 Duensing vibe from Smeltzer? Down the stretch in 2009, Duensing was pretty strong as a SP -- 5-1, 2.73 ERA in 9 starts -- before he finished with an uninspiring start vs NYY in the playoffs. 2010, Duensing was moved to the rotation again just before the trade deadline and almost certainly contributed more to our division title (7-2, 3.05 ERA in 13 starts) than Matt Capps. But Duensing then capped it off with another poor start in the postseason vs NYY. I guess Smeltzer did neutralize NYY once already, albeit in a mop-up appearance. Cleveland should be an interesting test, he gave up 4 HR to them last time. ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- 2009 Duensing 62/88/99 (as a SP) 2010 Duensing 73/95/93 (as a SP) 2019 Smeltzer 49/98/100 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2009&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4064&startdate=&enddate=
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    What a difference a week makes! The Yankees just completed a 4 game sweep of the Red Sox this weekend, bashing both Sale and Price. One game was a bullpen game in a doubleheader, but the other 3 featured solid starting performances from German and Paxton (the latter whom the Twins have largely missed this season). I still agree the Yankees should have added a starter, though, and outside of Houston, the Twins SPs match up fairly well with the other AL contenders.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    "he doesn't have the AL competition that he's had in those years" is the key point here. There is no 2018 Mookie Betts in the AL this year. Not even close. There isn't a 2012-2013 Triple Crown winning Miguel Cabrera either. There probably isn't even a 2015 Donalson (8.5 bWAR) or 2017 Altuve or Judge (8.1 bWAR each) this year -- 2nd place is currently Marcus Semien, who is only on pace for 7.2 bWAR and would likely split some votes with 4th place teammate Matt Chapman, who is on pace for 6.9. 3rd place is Bregman, who could split with Springer and Verlander. The best pitchers, ahead of Verlander, are both teammates too, Minor and Lynn. The best Boston player is still Betts, but everyone acknowledges his season is not up to 2018 standards (6.5 bWAR pace, on a team that might miss the postseason). LeMahieu is the only remotely close Yankee, on pace for the same 6.5 bWAR. I'm sure we'll hear LeMahieu's name bandied about in the media, but I highly doubt he beats Trout (already at 7.1 bWAR) in 1st place MVP votes, barring a sudden injury for Trout. Nothing it 100% guaranteed, but betting on Trout for MVP in 2019 is a much, much better bet than the in every previous season where he failed to win the award.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No, we got the medicals. It was likely a quick review, to be sure, but "medicals" just don't offer 100% precision or foresight. For a guy like Dyson, who hasn't been on the injured list since April 2017, there is little in those "medicals" that differs from every other MLB pitcher. From https://www.twincities.com/2019/07/31/twins-add-veteran-reliever-sam-dyson-at-deadline/ : “I’m never confident until you hear the final, ‘OK, we’re in agreement. The medicals have cleared.’ Because up until then, it’s still all potential,” Falvey said. Falvey heard those words Wednesday afternoon and shortly after, the Twins made it official From https://theathletic.com/1110160/2019/08/01/no-blockbuster-deal-but-twins-happy-to-bolster-bullpen-with-sam-dyson/ (subscription required): At 2:50 p.m., the teams began to exchange medicals on the players involved and the deal was cleared five minutes before the deadline
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I know it's just one factor, but Colina isn't Rule 5 eligible until after the 2020 season. So I'd imagine that Graterol, Duran, and even Alcala would all get preference for a 2019 MLB relief audition.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    There was talk of the Rangers cashing in Danny Santana before the deadline, but I don't think anyone was buying -- he has a .403 BABIP, shades of his .405 mark with the Twins in 2014. Remarkably, even though his power appears to be up significantly over 2014 (.271 ISO over .153), his wRC+ is only modestly better, 137 over 132. I guess league and park factors contribute to that, plus his K% has risen which neutralizes the high BABIP a little.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, even though he's a DH, Cruz is still accumulating WAR at pretty much an equal or better rate than Polanco or Kepler. But he's at least 20 games / 100 PA behind those two. But yeah, assuming Trout stays healthy, it would appear to be his award to lose without a standout competitor like Betts in 2018.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. I guess the Braves do have a solid lead in the division already this year, and they seem to have 4 decent starters at the moment -- but how many innings will Fried be able to go? His pro high is 120, and he's already at 115 with 10 more rotation turns left in the regular season, then the postseason. Personally I'd prefer Greinke, on anything close to the Astros deal, with an eye toward using Fried out of the pen this postseason (that could have saved you from Melancon's deal too). There's going to be some competition for Cole this winter, the contract could be quite long/large, and even if you do land him, that doesn't help for 2019.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And in terms of effectiveness, Shane Greene has given up 7 hits and 4 runs in 2 IP in his first two outings since his trade to the Braves, resulting in a blown save and an extra inning loss. (Hopefully he keeps that up this week!)
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