LA Vikes Fan

Agreed. Is he worth SWR or Festa and a non-pitching prospect in the 10-20 range? Sure. Is he worth Miller, Woo, Duran, Ober or Ryan? Not even close. Boston hasn't been able to trade Casas because they are asking for too much in return.

Interesting, but PECOTA tends to be late to the party as teams improve. I think Detroit will win more than the predicted 75 games, KC more than 81 and Cleveland more than 80. I think it will take 90+ wins to win the division and that all 4 teams have a shot at that number. I see those 3 plus the Twins all between 81 and 92 wins, with the Twins finishing at around 88-90 wins, finishing second in the division, and making the playoffs as a Wild Card. Who finishes first? I say Detroit now that they signed Flaherty to pair with Skubal, who is an absolute beast and one of the few ace starters out there. Detroit wins 90-92, Twins 88-90, KC 85, Cleveland 82, White Sox 65.

This is an issue that I've wondered about and can't find any real statistics to evaluate. Your information is helpful, although a little anecdotal, but a good way to think about OPS by position. Obviously you can hide a low OPS plyer who is extraordinary on the defensive side if you have a high OPS player at an unusual position. like SS or C. I think the analytics show that while Vasquez is an above average to good defender, his bat simply is far below average even for a catcher. I don't see Vasquez as that extraordinary defensive player whose glove makes up for his bat. Having said that, I agree that none of the backup options are ready for 40-50% MLB use. I just don't see that as preventing us from trading Vasquez for value since he is replaceable by a veteran FA like McCann, Grandal or Diaz. All have about the same or better WAR as Vasquez, the difference is that they get it on the hitting side more than the glove side. I have no idea if we can construct a deal with SD to get Cease with Vasquez and prospects. I do think that if we have that opportunity and the prospect cost is reasonable, we shouldn't let our lack of depth behind Vasquez stand in the way of a deal when there are veteran options available as free agents.

Looks like many of us are willing to give up a high end prospect with Vasquez, Paddack, and cash for Cease., but we disagree on how high end we're willing to go. I think if the Pads would include a young, cost controlled effective so far LH reliever with upside like Jacob or Morejon, I'd be willing to include any prospect except Jenkins, Emma, and Festa, or 2 from the list that doesn't include those 3, Matthews, Raya, or Keaschall.

I could see trading Vasquez, Paddack, and a good pitching or hitting prospect along with cash for Cease and a LH reliever like Jacob or Morejon. The relievers are younger and with more control. We get the younger reliever and a year of Cease, they get a catcher and Paddack for this year and a starting pitcher with upside. Twins eat half to 2/3 of the Vasquez salary so they dump $10.5-$12.5m and pick up $13.5-$15m. I wouldn't include Festa, Matthews or SWR, but Morris, Lewis, and Raya would all be potentially available. Would be willing to part with a hitter instead, not in addition, if that's what the Pads want since most of their good prospects are pitchers. The hitter couldn't be Jenkins, Emma, or Keaschall but anyone else is available, including Martin, Keirsey, and Helman. Also would be willing to consider more than 1 prospect if they are farther down the list in quality. Would love the prospect to be Varland but I don't think he has that kind of value unless combined with someone else.

Agreed, with a little more emphasis on on field performance impacting everything else in the short term. This year's team is the "Falvey" team - most of the players are ones his regime drafted or got in trades and he owns the minor league players. The payroll restrictions hurt but not enough to prevent this regime from fielding a competitive team in a weaker division. If they are not competitive in the first half and new ownership takes over by mid-season, I would expect to see at least a managerial change and a full house cleaning next off season. The bigger long term issues are the financial resources new ownership is willing to invest, how to broadcast the team, and how to rebuild enthusiasm in the fan base. To be blunt, this franchise has little chance for long term success without ownership investment beyond what a prudent businessman only interested in profit would make. The market is too small and the local economy isn't dynamic enough to compete with the big boys if the team is simply run like a business. To make this work, an owner needs to see the team as a hobby and, even more importantly, needs to get 2.5 - 3 million butts in the seats over the course of the year. I agree that this is a critical year in the franchise's history. The change in ownership gives us a fighting chance that we now don't have.

This payroll debate is always been confusing to me for the coming season. Based on the reporting I've seen, it appears that the Twins are not going to add to their payroll but they are not under a mandate to cut their payroll. It looks like they are simply going to run things back as they were last year, hope for better injury luck, and hope that guys like Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Mirnada, Festa, and SVR take steps forward so they can go from 82 to 90 wins. Add to that the team is for sale so there is no incentive to spend money or make big changes before a new owner steps in (hopefully soon). Is it a reasonable plan? Maybe, depending on what you think about the chances for improvement from the younger players in the lineup and the rotation. Is it a boring plan? You betcha. My real point here is the only reason to trade guys like Paddack, Castro, and Vasquez is to free up payroll to sign free agents. The problem is that even trading one of the three doesn't generate more than $5 million to $10 million. Is there someone out there that could meaningfully move the needle at that price point? I don't know of anybody but maybe some of you guys do – a relief pitcher maybe? Bottom line, is the off-season plan is pretty clear. We're running back the team from last year without Santana or Kepler and hoping for better results by younger players improving and better injury luck. Doesn't really make for a fascinating off-season.

I'm right with you. It all depends on what the team thinks about Festa and Matthews. Personally, to me it's all about Festa. Matthews should go back to AAA. He may be ready by mid-season, it may be next year but he is no higher than the #7 starter on the current roster. Festa doesn't really have anything left to prove at the AAA level and I would like him to get 20-25 starts or more at the MLB level in 2025. Also, Paddack is worth more than a salary dump. He's worth a 15-20 rated prospect from a solid system plus a flyer. Given that pitching is always more important and more expensive than hitting, particularly starting pitching, Paddack is worth more than dumping his salary to sign an aging 1B. Before you say the payroll has to be reduced, remember that it doesn't have to be reduced NOW, it only has to be reduced by Opening Day. I think it's all timing. Go to ST with the starters we have. IF they are all healthy we can make a trade then to a team looking for SP. We will probably get a better return then. However, if one of our top 4 starters is injured having Paddack will be critical in the early going. FWIW, I don't anything is going to happen pending potential sale talks. There's no reason to reduce the pool of buyers by either adding payroll or stripping the team until you know the likely buyer and what that buyer wants to do. I'm still hoping that a random billionaire who wants in to pros sports will buy the team and try to buy a championship.

I agree here. Keirsey doesn't have to be the 4th OF - that should be a RH hitter who plays in the corners platooning with Larnach. Keirsey is the 5th OF, backs up Buxton in CF and fills in the corners as needed for injury or rest. I see him playing 2 days a week in CF, with Buxton out there 4 days a week and at DH a day a week. Given Keirsey has options and the state of the payroll, he's the logical choice for that role. The Twins then can and should look at a Grichuk, Canha, and similar guys as the 4th OF. Martin belongs in AAA playing on the OF every day as an injury back up trying to prove he can hold down a defensive position and working on his offensive game.

In contrast to earlier comments, I think the Twins organization drafts well and has done a very good job with player development at the minor league level leading to MLB ready players. Just looking at the current roster you see a robust group of players developed in the system from Duran, Jax, Ober, and Sands on the pitching side with more on the way (Festa, Matthews, etc.) to Lewis, Miranda, Wallner, Larnach, and Jeffers, in the field, with Lee and hopefully Julien and others on the way. Not all of these guys are or will be stars but they are or soon should be quality MLB level players who deserve to be on the roster of a winning team. We can argue about how they use these players once they get to the MLB level with the excessive platooning and emphasis on positional versatility over excellence at one position, but those are not development issues. They're how you use the guys once they get there issues. To me, the bigger issue is the penchant for signing replacement level veterans to fill out the roster and the multiple swings and misses there in 2024. That's the weak spot in my opinion. Going into 2025 I would rather see them take a shot with "younger" guys in the org rather than sign placeholder vets to fill out the roster. Only sign free agents if they have an MLB track record of being better than average. Keirsey and Morgan as the 4th and 5th OFs (along with Castro), not another Margot type. If we can't re-sign Santana (or think he's done), go with Miranda and/or Julien at 1B, don't sign a retread. Only upgrade to Walker or someone like that, don't sign Ty France or even Anthony Rizzo. Either get higher end free agents, trade for good younger players, or lean into the organization. Don't fill the team with mediocre veteran guys. If that means taking some lumps in the first half of 2025, so be it. We'll be better for it in the long run.

While I think this is a good approach, there is a fit problem with Castro on the roster. The problem is that he's been a consistent .660-.680 OPS guy against LH pitching over the last 3 years so he really isn't a viable platoon guy or replacement for the guys that struggle against LH pitching like Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Julien etc. Those are the guys for whom you'd like to have a player who excels against LH pitching playing a couple of days a week. Still, he has value so don't just give him away for salary relief or a B/B- prospect unless you take that money and use it on a starting pitcher or quality bat at 1B or in LF. My thought is that if we can get a quality reliever or B+ prospect near the MLB level, trade him in the offseason. In the more likely event we cannot, he is on the roster as a quasi super utility player (starts 3 days a week or so mostly against RH pitching, late inning PH or PR, good injury replacement), Have him really focus on 2B, 3B, and LF. Then look at the trade deadline where teams are looking to fill holes created by injury or subpar performance and trade him for a B+ prospect or a decent reliever. If he's hitting, that should be available. If he's not, we lose the gamble. If he's somehow stepped up to being a true key piece on a contending roster, we keep him.

This kind of matches my eye test and what we've seen the last 2 years. This is about an 85 win team with the current roster. If they have significant injuries - last year Ryan was the big one - they drop to 80 or so. If everyone hits at the same time, they win 90ish games. Good enough to make the playoffs if things go right and maybe even win a series; not good enough to contend for a WS berth unless they bring in outside talent or every single young player takes a big step forward at the same time. Deja Vu all over again.

Agreed. They're slimming down the organization by losing some of the less successful players. There's no way they could hire a good baseball GM right now - nobody good would take the job when ownership is likely to change in the next year and they could be forced out by a new owner., Rightly or wrongly, St. Peter wears the attendance drop and recent marketing failures. He gets kicked to the side in favor of the guy who presided over the team's improvement on the field and they promote and keep a guy as GM who has a good pedigree but to whom a new owner doesn't have to have any loyalty. No long term contract or commitment but maybe an opportunity. These are classic moves to reposition a business for sale. I would expect some additional slimming down/ retirements in other front office positions. The goal is to reduce overhead and give a new owner maximum flexibility to put his or her own stamp on the club coming in. Conversely, I don't expect any on the field changes until they have a buyer identified. Then we might see Correa kept or traded, free agents signed or not signed, trades to reduce payroll, etc. I think that when we see those kind of things that's a signal that a buyer is closing in and will get a sense for how that buyer intends to operate. I personally think they were down to a handful of potential buyers when the announced the club was for sale.

I got to the end of hte article assuming that the proposed trade would be Paddack to Milwaukee for Perkins and a decent prospect. You know, a combination Salary dump/ bench upgrade. Sending Ryan or Ober is frankly ridiculous. Now, Paddack? Maybe...

Agreed. Let's stop complaining about Sonny Gray leaving. Not paying him $25m a season was the right decision. Now, we can complain about not spending that $25m or even $15m on someone else.....

I think the truest statement in this article is that mangers get too much credit when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses. I live in LA and Dave Roberts is regularly savaged as an "idiot", yet he is the best by the stats listed above and the Dodgers just won the World Series. Before you say "Roberts gets no credit, it's the payroll", the Dodgers won by playing better fundamental baseball at the margins to beat a Yankees team with better pitching, far fewer injuries, and better middle of the order bats. Roberts deserves a lot of credit for this year's championship. And to think I thought he was an idiot. The stats above point out the objective truth - Rocco is an average to maybe slightly above average manager. His weaknesses are at the margins. The Twins don't and really can't really play small ball on offense to eke out runs and wins, the baserunning is ok but not an asset, and the defense is adequate but not above average except at SS and in CF when the starters are playing. Yes, part of that is the talent and the FO staying a little too long with the three true outcomes approach after 2019. The Twins don't have small ball players and have no speed to speak of. But that's not the whole story. Rocco doesn't seem to emphasize the running game or defense. On the positive side, he seems to have good rapport with his players and the team competes hard for him. He's fine, but not a guy who will elevate the team. The truth is there aren't very many guys who will so it's more likely that a change would hurt rather than help.

Reading the contrary postings on Miranda, I really am wondering what the plan is for 1B if it isn't Miranda. Santana is more $$ than the team is spending these days and at 39 more likely than not to regress as a hitter. Julien hasn't played there and can't hit. Larnach or Wallner could play there I guess but haven't. There's no one in the Minors knocking on the door. Kirilloff is no longer an option - maybe he was the first choice before. Add to that the video showing Miranda was working out at 1B while on injury rehab and it sure seems like he is at least an option and at this point, the option. Nick, you have more sources in the org than the rest of us. If playing Miranda at 1B isn't the plan, what is? And where does that leave Miranda? As trade bait, a part time player, a DH? I'm genuinely curious.

This is important. The Twins biggest offensive issues are too many low wOBA guys combined with a glaring lack of speed. That makes it very difficult to manufacture runs with less than 3 hits unless you hit a lot of HRs. The Twins did for awhile and then didn't, resulting in a offensive drop off that led to collapse. It's easy to diagnose the problem and see the theoretical solution, but it's really hard to actually make that solution happen. The Twins need to replace/augment the roster with some speed and higher OBP guys. The problem is we don't have those guys just sitting around in the Minors with the possible exception of DaShawn Keirsey and Michael Helman, and the FO legitimately questions whether either will be able to hit at the MLB level. Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda aren't going to get faster anytime soon (although Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda at least have a reasonably strong OBP). To me, this is a key issue the Twins need to address in the off-season. We need to get some on base percentage/speed kind of guys who are good enough to play every day or at least be good platoon players. They don't have to be superstars, just guys who can hit .260 – .280 and have an OBP over .325. We have openings in LF, at 2B (I think Lee is going to wind up at 3B or 1B, and may start next year in AAA working on his hitting) and at 1B. We could also use one of these speed/OBP guys in the field assuming they have a strong glove and move Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, and/or Miranda to be a 50% DH type rather than everyday fielder. We need to fix this in the off-season to be successful next year.

Agreed. What we're really talking about here is the back end of the bullpen - pitchers 5-8. We actually may have the top 4-5 for 2025 in Jax, Duran, Sands, and then a healthy Topa, bullpen Varland, and roughly 30 innings of Stewart. What happened last year is everything we tried at the back end basically didn't work or if it did, it only worked for a few weeks. Frankly, I think that's pretty typical of every team's experience in MLB with the exception of those occasional years were one team seems to get a great run from everyone. My view would be that going forward we should either populate those back ends with either (A) starters from our own system simply couldn't seem to handle the heavier workload or five innings plus outings; (B) pitchers that we specifically develop as relievers in the minor leagues; and (C) failed starters from other systems who might be available. I think we should stay out of the "I was once a good reliever but I'm coming off a down year" market because that seems to almost always fail. Everything is a complete crapshoot in this market and will be every year.

Indeed they are. They are having an intrafamily fight over ownership and direction of the company. This has lead to less concentration on operations and innovation as management gets drawn into that fight and/or gets conflicting policy direction. An intrafamily ownership squabble can then lead to a loss of focus on the business leading to some significant operational issues, including the listeria issues. That's why I think the two situations may be parallel. For example, for all we know Joe Pohlad wanted to pay to add Kikuchi at the deadline and was overruled by other family members who wanted to maximize annual operating profit.

This makes a lot of sense to me. Moving a family business through multiple generations is incredibly hard to do and usually breaks down over time. Boars Head is a great example. The problem is that there may be internal agreement on what to do amongst an older generation and then you have some people in subsequent generations who have different viewpoints. Here, I could easily see that some of the family wants to treat the team as a business and maximize profit, while some see it more as a hobby and value winning over profit, and some don't care about the business and may want to cash out their their share. The only way to solve that is to either have one person or a small group buy out everyone else's shares or to sell the asset.

Two thoughts. First, if there is a major trading of assets for prospects it is much more likely that is being done at the behest of a certain buyer group who want to see that happen without taking the PR hit. I don't think that the sell off would improve value so I don't see it happening unless that's what a new buyer wants. Inertia is more likely. Second, I think they have something(s) already in process. I think they know that the sale is likely to happen either to one or maybe multiple bidders and they announced it to see if there is any other interest out there and to leverage suitors. I expect a relatively quick process.

I agree that the Twins should be open to trading almost anyone on the roster for the right return. The issue is what constitutes the "right return". The premise of the article appears to be that we would trade Duran for high-end prospects and thus save money as well as potentially improving future years. I didn't see anything in the article that Duran could or should be traded either individually or as part of a package for a middle of the order bat or quality starter. I think this one is simple. If you can trade Duran alone or with a package that might even include someone as good as Keaschall and get a true middle of the order bat or middle of the rotation starter with multiple years of control at relatively low cost then you should absolutely trade him. Otherwise, no. He is more valuable to the Twins as a closer during the upcoming years where the expensive veterans are still hopefully nearer their prime than their decline than he is as trade bait to get even 2 or 3 of another team's top 20 prospects. So in short, trade him for something that makes the 2025 Twins demonstrably better like a middle of the order bat or quality starter? Sign me up. Trade him for prospects? Really bad idea IMHO.

Don't forget that Moreno had a sale lined up and bailed because he just couldn't bring himself to leave the exclusive "owner of a pro sports team" club. He got the price he was looking for, at least the price he said he was looking for. He also still thinks he can develop around the parking lots and make big bucks. I don't think the Pohlads will have that problem. Their problem is they may have waiting one year too long, so they're selling with a negative TV situation.

Guys. I think this one is pretty easy. Every team needs at least 7 starters a season, most need 9-10. With Paddack we have 7 counting Festa and Matthews, both of whom are likely to start at AAA. Varland proved this year that he is a relief pitcher, not a starter. There simply are very few decent starting pitchers out there one can get for $7.5 million and to get one, you have to take a major risk on someone knowing that at best you're throwing away your money on a mediocre innings eater and it's usually worse. Every now and then you see a Flaherty, but not very often. I really think this is a no-brainer. Start the season with Paddack in the rotation. Hope you can get 100 – 120 starting innings out of him with an ERA under 4.25. That means probably two trips to the IL during the course of the season. He can always be moved to the bullpen if he is ineffective but there's no reason to start him there. Festa and Matthews start in AAA and are up in that order for the inevitable injury or ineffectiveness of one of the starting five. We can also hope that guys just now hitting the AAA level like Raya, Lewis or Morris would be additional depth and show enough to get an opportunity in 2025 at the MLB level. What you don't do is deprive yourself of someone who showed he can at least be an average starter at the MLB level by making him a middle reliever or trading him for not very much.