LA Vikes Fan

I think the opening day lineup has Julien at second base and Lee at third. France is the 1B and Miranda, DH, or vice versa. Miranda will get time at 1B and 3B, with Castro filling in across the infield, particularly at 2B against left-handed, pitching, and sometimes in LF. We will get a month to see how that alignment works defensively and who can hit. Chances are an injury or nonperformance will make the decision as to who hits the bench or the shuttle back to AAA when Lewis is ready to return.

Miranda has been on the 26 man for a month. I suspect that there is really only one battle going on for the last spot. Lee is hitting and on the roster out of ST. Martin is not and is not. The other 3 are battling for that last spot. It comes down to what skill set do want? Semi - Proven hitter with some defensive flexibility between 1B and 2B - Julien. Unproven hitter and older, but good ST hitting, can play 2B, 1B, and be a 3rd Catcher - Gaspar. 5th OF with good defense but unproven bat who tore up AAA last year - Keirsey. My guess is Julien stays, with Gaspar down as AAA IF depth and Keirsey the first OF called up for injury, especially if the injury is to Buxton or Bader. I could see Gaspar over Julien but I would pick Julien if I were betting. Like John says, it all depends on what skill set you value most. Watch. we'll have an injury or two and they will all make the team.

Look, I'd be short term thrilled if France got 400=450 PAs, hit .255/.325/.405, with 20 HRs, and gave us close to average IB defense this year. That's probably the high end of his range but he has done a little better than that in 21021 and 2022 and close to that in 2023, so it's within the realm of possibility. What concerns me is the lack of opportunity for Miranda in that scenario. He's hit .284/.322/.441 (.763), 112 OPS+ in 429 PAs, 401 ABs last year, all at age 26. He needs a place to play every day or at least 4-5 days a week. Why? Because his first 1000 ABs have shown that he is at least an above average hitter and with only a 5% improvement could be a middle of the order mainstay for a team that desperately needs 2 or 3. If this team is going to have a 3-5 year championship competitive run, we need middle of the order type production from three of Lewis, Miranda, Wallner, and Larnach, ideally from all 4. I think there is a reasonable chance that we can get that level of production from at least 3 of those 4 but we can't if they don't get to play enough. The DH spot is properly going to be on a rotation for partial days off, so we have to have a place for Miranda to play in a fairly regular basis. Where is that going to be if not at 1B? 3B, LF, and RF are all taken. Maybe the plan is 2-3 days a week at 1B, 1-2 at 3B, and 2 at DH. It does make wonder how anybody gets good at any position in that kind of scenario. The bottom line is Miranda needs ABs, and he should get them at 1B at France's expense if that's the only available place unless we think France can perform like he did in 2022 AND will be here for the performing at that level for the next 3-5 years. I don't think either of those things are likely to be true.

I agree on Keaschal, Gaspar, and Keirsey but its hard to see a path to the 26 man roster for any of those 3 players unless there is an injury or Julien opens up one spot by being sent to AAA. Julien is hitting in ST. It does seem most likely all three wind up in AAA with their likely opportunity later in the season.

Good article, but I wonder if Lee really is "penciled in" as the starting 2B. He didn't hit last year and hasn't hit in ST. I do think he'll be a long term above average starter in MLB (not a star), but he may not yet be ready. We do have decent 2B options in Castro and Julien. I think Lee stays if he's the starter and because he can back up SS, but if he doesn't win a starting job it makes a lot more sense to send him to AAA as the starting SS playing every day than to play 3 days a week at the MLB level. That gives us some real SS depth if Correa gets hurt again. If we really look at it there is a competition for two position player spots - Buxton, Bader, Larnach, Wallner, France, Correa, Castro, Miranda, Lewis, Jeffers and Vasquez are locks unless they get hurt. The Twins could go with Lee at 2B, and a competition between Julien (2B/1B), Gaspar (2B/C), and Martin (5th OF) for the last spot. If, on the other hand, the team decides to go with Castro or Julien at 2B, then I think Lee goes to AAA and they keep either Gaspar or Martin. I think the Twins want Lee to win the 2B job but he needs to show he can hit MLB pitching and as of yet he hasn't.

I agree. I actually expect Varland to open up as the Closer in St. Paul. He would then be the first guy up for the inevitable injured or ineffective bullpen member assuming he is doing well in AAA. I expect him with the Twins by May 15 and once up, I think he stays up. There's really 3 potential pen spots after Duran, Jax, Stewart (assuming he's healthy),Sands and Coulombe. I think the top 3 likely to make the team are Tonkin, Alcala, and Castellano. Tonkin may be a trade candidate to some desperate team in return for an A ball lottery ticket. If he's gone, the last spots are Castellano and Topa with Varland at AAA. If Tonkin is still with the team, Topa goes to AA because Topa has options and Tonkin does not. I don't think a trade with Philly is likely, so we are going to have to carry Castellano for the year to keep him. They wouldn't have picked him up if they weren't prepared to keep him. My likely bullpen is Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, and Castellano. Topa makes the team if one of those guys is traded or hurt. Varland starts as the AAA closer so he can get used to high leverage relief experience and then comes up when Stewart goes on Il.

While it seems weird to lead off Wallner to us guys who have been watching baseball since the 60s, it actually does make a lot of sense to have the top5 spots be occupied by your top 5 hitters. Identifying the top 5 hitters on this year's Twins team is pretty easy - Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis and Larnach. Miranda and Jeffers are 6 and 7. I would go Correa, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers myself, but I could see going Wallner, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, and Lewis for the reasons you mentioned. Will be weird to see but probably the best approach. The differences in plate appearance by batting order number is pretty interesting. Hitting first gives you 13 more PAs per year than 2nd on average, 28 more than third, etc., about 13-15 PAs per spot in the lineup. Each spot in the lineup is worth 13-15 PAs per season than the one directly behind and those amounts accumulate. Better to give those PAs to our better hitters,

Agreed. All of the guys in this price range are a crapshoot and all have warts. Grichuk is a below average fielder, Bell may be cooked and is a poor fielder, Bader can field but is not much of a hitter, France is Bell with a slightly better glove and slightly worse bat, etc. Did we get the "right" guys? Who the hell knows. The FO went for gloves over bats. Fielding tends to last longer so I get the idea. Only time will tell if it's the right call. Frankly, if my choice were two of the above 4, I would probably have gone with Bader and Bell but I would have had to find another $4m or so for that combo. And, by the way, I would keep Keirsey as the 5th OF and keep Castro in the IF UTL slot rather than Julien as a backup IF with Castro as a backup OF assuming the bench will be Vasquez/Jeffers, Lee, Castro and one of Julien, Martin, Gaspar, or Keirsey. Any bets of which of those last 4 makes the team? While I'd prefer Keirsey, my money's on Julien.

Don’t these stats prove that the Twins were right to platoon these hitters except for Kepler? The goal is to win games. Guys being put in situations where they consistently fail doesn’t help you win games. I think Wallner and Larnach will get a chance in ST to show they can hit LHs since we appear to be going with 4 OFs plus Castro, who also doesn’t hit LH pitching.

Agree on Lee, at least for ST, but I think they need him to make the team to be the backup SS. Castro stinks at SS and we don't have anyone else unless they think Lewis can still play SS (and he can't). I think it's a 60/40 time share at 2B between Castro and Lee, with Castro getting some time at 3B but not a lot. I think 3B is 70/30 Lewis and Miranda, with Miranda also getting the short end of a 60/40 split at 1B with France. The DH spot is an amalgam of Lewis, Buxton, Miranda, France, and off days for Correa, Wallner, and Jeffers. Larnach and Bader are a pretty strict LF platoon, with Bader also on the short end of a 60/40 split in CF and a late inning defensive replacement. This all leaves one more spot. Who gets it - Julien, Keirsey, Gaspar, Ford, or Martin? I think you look to the most unsettled positions and see who fits those positions. Those are 2B, a RH hitting corner OF, and a LH hitting 1B.. Julien can play 1B and 2B (sort of) and Martin can play OF and 2B (sort of). I have to think those two have the best shot in that order. Although I'd love to see Keirsey force his way onto the opening day roster by continuing to play this well throughout ST, I think it requires an OF injury for him to make the club out of ST or during the season for that matter. I think Gaspar and Ford are AAA depth unless they have a strong desire to have an emergency C on the 26 man roster and they keep Gaspar.

I'm in on 7 of the 10. I htink you're right on with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 9. Contraries: 6 - Ty France makes the roster and starts at 1B or DH 4-5 days a week. Hits around .255/.325/.410 (.735) with meh defense and is lauded for his "veteran leadership". Plays somewhere else in 2026. 8 - Twins don't trade for Framber Valdez at the deadline because the Astros are in their division race and he costs too much ($18m). Instead go with who they have in pitching, with Festa in the rotation by June 15 for the rest of the year due to an injury to one of the starting 5. Do trade for a 2B and/or RH hitting OF/DH who hits LH pitching well (my predictions on who below). 10 - Twins win right around 88-90 games, finish second in the division to Detroit (!), who wins 93. Twins get a Wild Card, beat Baltimore in WC round, beat Texas in ALDS, lose to Yankees or Boston in ALCS. And now for #11 - 11- Twins announce new buyer by All Star break, group lead by random billionaire you've never hear of with Tori Hunter or Justin Morneau part of the group. Allows Pohlads to swallow hard and trade good prospect(s) for Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward from the Angels to play 2B and RH hitting OF/DH, respectively .

I'm wondering if maybe Varland starts out as the AAA closer to get him used to late inning, high stress relief work. He's then the first RP up and pitches in late inning situations and as the "backup closer" so Jax can stay as the guy that faces the heart of the other teams' lineup in the 7th or 8th inning. Those two plus Duran and the 30-40 innings we get from Stewart this year could be a pretty formidable back end of the bullpen.

Bader is here as the platoon RH hitting OF, the question is with whom he will platoon. It's early but I'm betting that both Wallner and Larnach will get more ABs against LH pitching this spring to see who can hit it. Wallner is the leader in the clubhouse, especially with Rocco saying that he wants Bader's defense in LF. My money is on Wallner as a most every day player in RF with Larnach in a pretty strict platoon with Bader in LF and Bader getting a day or three in CF with Buxton at DH or sitting. With Castro able to play a passable OF, there's no pressing need for a 5th OF and probably no room at the inn for Martin or Keirsey as a backup OF. Fight for the last two position player roster spots (unless there's trade, but I don't think there will be) - Lee, Julien, Martin, Gaspar, and Keirsey, and one of them has to play 2B so Castro can be the UTL. Lee gets in if he hits at all because he's able to play 2B and also be the backup SS. Of the other 4, it cold be any of them for the last spot but I'm guessing Julien.. .

Agreed. Classic negotiating move of playing one against the other. Ishbia used the Twins opportunity to cut a better deal on taking over the White Sox. He wasn’t the only potential buyer, he’s the only publicly identified potential buyer. I think we all got a little head of ourselves because we’re hoping for improvement with Pohlad gone. We went through this drama in LA before the current group bought the Dodgers. My guess is that this isn’t the last twist and turn in the saga. Well, I guess we’ll find out how robust that market really is.

Agreed. We need a total of roughly 60-65 starts from the starters vying for the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation if the top 3 are healthy all year - more if they aren't. Most likely we will need 70 plus starts from that group. We aren't going to get that from 2 pitchers or even 3. We will need at least 4 and maybe more. My guess is that Paddack gets 20-25 starts, same for SWR, 15-20 for Festa, 10-15 for Matthews, and 5 or so from "other". To me, that's why we keep Paddack unless some team wants to trade us a starting caliber OF bat for him, which seems unlikely. If we can get 23-25 starts, 120-140 innings of 4 - 4.3 ERA work from Paddack he will be a great addition to the rotation at a very good price. I'm hopeful we can. I put the odds at 60/40 in favor but hey, I'm an optimist.

I think this is right on although I think the floor is a little higher (around 80 wins). The pieces are there IF they all or mostly perform. We could have one of the group in #4 fall off if Bader, Martin, etc. are at least league average or slightly better. The top 3 points pretty much have to happen though for the Twins to win 90 plus games. A 2 or 3 month injury to any of the top 3 starters, Correa, Lewis, or Buxton, probably dooms the season. 2 of the "other 4" potential starting pitchers have to perform at an average or better level or we also have big problems. With that said I'm actually pretty optimistic that we will win 85+ games with our pitching and could hit 90-94 wins if everything comes together. The talent is there but the margin for error is small. The real question is health.

I'm not as high on Lee as others here. I would love to see him have the defensive chops to play 2B at a high level because I think that's where his bat profiles. From here, he looks like a .265/.335/.420 type guy with a below 20% SO rate IF things go well. Nothing wrong with that; that's a solid to above average regular at 2B and maybe even at 3B. His bat is certainly good enough for 2B but probably not good enough to play 3B because of the lack of power unless the team gets power from an unusual position like 2B or SS. You also have to add in the complete lack of any speed (man runs like a catcher) and the fact that he may have a chronic back issue to manage. I think his highest and best use is as a great glove, solid to good bat 2B that hits in the 6 or 7 hole although I can see the temptation to make him the 3B and Lewis the 2B given their throwing arms (Lee good, Lewis erratic). Frankly this is kind of similar to the scouting report when Lee came out. Advanced bat, close to MLB ready, good chance to be a solid MLB regular, limited ceiling. And I'm just fine with that. Let's just not assume he will be more than a complimentary player on a good team if things work out. His "make" level is not as high as some others if we are realistic about what he brings to the table.

I think we need to put the Rocco has a “quick hook“ narrative to bed. I’ve been around a while and I remember when you expected every starter to go seven innings. Baseball isn’t played that way anymore, mostly because of the increased injury risk from those extra innings and the cost of starters. Starters did not last as many seasons in the old days because they pitched them so hard. Now we expect starting pitchers to go well into their mid 30s and we pay them so much that is just not worth taking a lot of extra risk, especially during your average midseason game. The Twins averaged 5.28 innings per start last year. The highest was the Braves at 5.58 innings per start, the average was 5.2. The Twins were tied for 12th Place in MLB for innings per start, so a little above average. Bottom line is that Rocco doesn’t pull starting pitchers any earlier than anybody else or at least didn’t last year. The evidence suggests that it’s unfair to criticize him for having a “quick hook” overall. He’s frankly more patient than many.

It may even be simpler than this. tell Buxton he could hit better with better core strength and have him exercise in a way to improve that strength. He will then increase his swing speed if his swing doesn't change or his body will naturally compensate with a slightly shorter swing to maintain his balance, both good results. With Lewis, tell him to swing had and to worry about SOs, his swing lengthens, and his bat speed increases. I know its not this easy but this would help both guys.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Twins traded Michael Helman to St. Louis for cash. It does not say how much cash. Well, I guess we now know how the team is paying ofr Bader and one of the players going to create a 40 man vacancy. Not very exciting.

I think the Twins have had the 2nd best offseason in the division. Detroit added Flaherty and Cobb to the rotation, Kahnle to the bullpen, and Torres to the IF. They are really improved on the pitching side (Torres is a meh addition) and now can run out Skubal, Flaherty and Cobb for a 3 game series. That's better than our top 3 because Skubal is probably the #1 or #2 starter in the American League depending on Gerrit Cole's health and Lopez = Flaherty. The bullpens are pretty similar, maybe ours a little better, and the Twins hit a little better last year but the Tigers have some guys coming back from injury sop they may hit better than we do in 2925. I predict the Central to be a very close race this year. My guess is that it will be won by Detroit with 90-92 wins, followed by the Twins at 86-90, KC and Cleveland both at 82-87, and the White Sox at below 70 wins. Frankly, all of the top 4 teams could finish 1st to 4th and win 82-92 games. Should be an exciting year.

I understand that mindset but just don't agree. I think the Twins plan on playing Miranda at 1B every day and the backup plan is Julien. To me, 1B is an offense first position and it is not worth playing a guy there who can't hit much no matter who good the glove. Plus, Rizzo is at most a 1 year stop gap who does nothing for the the next 2-4 years for this team. We need to develop the core for the hopefully opening window to really contend. Rizzo does nothing to help us do that.

I disagree. My view is that Larnach and Wallner play 5-6 days a week, 4 in the OF and 1 at DH for at least the first half of the season. That includes starting against LH pitching. Bader get his ABs in CF with Buxton playing 4 days a week there and 1-2 at DH, plus the inevitable Il stint for Buxton. The DH spot is a rotation of guys that includes Lewis and Mirnada. Bader gets his 200-250 ABs in the 50-70 games he has to start in CF for Buxton. This is the year to find out if Larnach and Wallner can be everyday players or are platoon guys. Play them every day.

I think you're right on Mountcastle's value. He should fetch a younger high upside pitcher plus. That plus could be a back end starter type now or an MiLB pitcher with upside. Something like Festa or Matthews plus Paddack or Culpepper. Probably a little more than I would do for a guy who's a Free agent in 2 seasons. I would trade Paddack plus the MiLB pitcher, say their choice of Culpepper or even Cory Lewis, but that probably isn't enough.

I love the Mountcastle idea but God, I hope you're wrong on Rizzo. He is cooked. OPS of .706 is 2023 and .638 in 2024 playing in that LH hitting bandbox called Yankee Stadium. He hits LH and his OPS was even worse against LH pitching at .536 in 2024. He'll be 36 this year. He does nothing to address our actual needs except give us a better glove at 1B. Mountcastle, sure for the right price (AAA starting pitching or Paddack, not any of the top 4). Rizzo? Please dear God, no.