Back in the 2017 off-season I pulled up some comps for Ervin, concluding in that offseason, and then again at that trade deadline in July of 2017, while he was having a great year, that they needed to trade him as soon as possible: Offseason before 2017 season: "Peavy pitched a 101 ERA+ at 33, then pitched two more years, 108 and 74 at age 34 and 35.Guthrie posted a 132 at age 33, then went 102-95-72, done at 36.Lohse posted 133 at age 33, then went 115-107-68, done at 36.Millwood posted 88 at 33, then 127-81-115-90, done at 37.Loiaza posted 108 at 33, then averaged 83 and was done at 36.Doug Davis (106ERA+ age 29-33) posted a 108 ERA+ at age 33, then bombed to 57 over the next two years, done at 35.Steve Traschel posted a 107, then posted 88 and 94 in his age 35 and 36 season, playing sporadically at age 34 and 37, done at 37.Miguel Batista posted a couple of 103/102 seasons as a starter after 33, and became a solid closer for some of those years, lasting until 40.Javier Vasquez posted 81 and 106 in his age 33 and 34 seasons and then retired.Brad Radke, who posted a 110 ERA+ from age 29-33 posted a 104 at age 33, and then was done.Finally, Ervin Santana pitched a 124 ERA at age 33, with a 101 ERA+ from age 29-33 (including years of 74 and 90 in that stretch.). He's headed toward his rapid decline phase, although he might post another 100+ year or maybe two if he is lucky. He also has a history with PEDs, which may have helped him more in the past than going forward. The Twins should trade him for whatever they can get." July, 2017: "I stick by that assessment. He's been good this year. He won't be good for long. Trade him now." Epilogue: He posted an ERA+ of 135 in 2017, and helped the Twins get to the WC game (and then bombed out in NY in that game). Since then, ERA + of 54 and 48. It was quite the fall....but it was pretty easy to spot that coming.