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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    Through 125 votes, which is an estimated 32.6% of the expected vote totals: Beltre, 123 votes, 98.4% Helton, 103 votes, 82.4% Mauer, 102 votes, 81.6% Wagner, 100 votes, 80% Sheffield, 95 votes, 76%
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    Never mind…Manaea to the Mets for 2/28.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    The rules of the election state that the “elector shall sign and return the completed ballot no later than December 31.” By December 26 there were already 50 ballots made public on the tracker. So the late-voting electors absolutely can look at the early trends before they cast their vote.
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    How about they sign Sean Manaea? One thing I’ll note that these guys have in common: Lopez-Ryan-Ober-Paddack-Varland-Woods-Richardson - Festa - Canterino - Raya…. …All right handed. Only lefties of note are Prielipp.and Headrick.
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    But….the Mariners traded away Robbie Ray, so is their pitching depth now deeper, or shallower?
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    Excellent point, and Polanco has a $12mm option. So Castillo would cost ~ $10mm this year and next year, then $21mm each of 26-27. That does change the math quite a bit and may mean he would be within the realm of possibility. He would cost more than Polanco, though, that’s for sure.
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    Woot.
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    Is it possible that Pablo is top five…and Buxton is not top 20?
  9. AlwaysinModeration
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    Heard that Ryan, Jax, Lopez and Thielbar were there.
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    Last year there were 20 voters who either voted for one person (12) or zero (8). So far this year there is only one such voter. Meanwhile, Helton has edged ahead of Mauer, 91 to 90 out of 109 votes, while Wagner is over 80%.
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    I agree, he would be a great addition to the rotation. But I just cannot see this FO trading for a player that is under contract for four years and $85mm.
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    I think Manoah has more upside than Cabrera and would be my target.
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    The Twins FO MO is to trade for pitchers with multiple years of control, usually on an affordable contract, that don’t have astronomical trade values (ie wont cost a top prospect to get). Corbin Burnes (1 year) and Luis Castillo (owed $80mm) Jesus Luzardo and Logan Gilbert (both cost too much) do not fit their MO in my view. Alek Manoah and Edward Cabrera do.
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    To answer the question, no, he’s not viable. Signed by the Reds for $16mm, with a $20mm mutual option.
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    I say they trade him to Toronto for Alek Manoah straight up.
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    Travis Sawchik’s column https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2800615/explaining-a-hall-of-fame-vote-and-process makes 100 ballots. Beltre 98 Mauer 83 Helton 82 Wagner 79 Sheffield 73 In answer to your question, DJ, I’d say he definitely has a chance.
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    Interesting analysis.
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    Ten votes posted in the last 24 hours after Christmas. Not doing a full update, but I think it’s worth noting this development in the voting pattern: Helton 81.4% Mauer 81.4%. Mauer pulls even with Helton for the first time, by getting 9 of 10 ballots from 50 to 60, while Helton only got 6 of those 10. Last year Helton fell just 11 votes short of enshrinement, with 72.2% of the vote. His public total via the tracker last year was 78.6%, so he lost 6.4% of that public total when the actual vote totals were released. This year so far, Helton has a net loss of one of his votes from last year—remember he only needs to add 11 measly votes to get in. Historically, if a player is right at the cusp, a bunch of voters add him to their ballot the next year and they get in the following year. This is definitely worth tracking - if Mauer can keep even with Helton, he’s got a good shot of eking in this year on the first ballot.
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    50 votes in: Beltre: 98% (not unanimous) Helton 86% Mauer 80% ————————- Sheffield 74% Wagner 72% A Jones 66% Beltran 62% Utley 52% Everyone drifting down a bit.
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    One other thing helping his candidacy—Ichiro played in the season opening two-game series in Japan at the Tokyo Dome in March of 2019. Those two games delayed Ichiro’s eligibility from this year’s ballot to next year’s. If Ichiro and Beltre were both on this ballot, I think Joe would be receiving less support. It’s still going to be close this year, but fingers cross he can stay above 75%.
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    25 vote mark: Beltre, still 100% Helton, 88% (22 votes) Mauer, 84% (21) Sheffield 76% (18) ———————————- Wagner 72% (17) Andruw Jones 68% (16) Beltran 68% (16) Utley 60% (14)
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    I’m not sure where exactly to start here
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    And Jason Kelce says the play is an absolutely brutal, draining play.
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    Who liked her?
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