Danchat

(article has been re-located to Blogs, so when all parts are finished they can be read together)
The phrase “pitching pipeline” has been a phrase uttered frequently on Twins Daily. A search reveals that the first mention of that exact phrase occurred in 2015, and the term was lighted used through 2021 when we notably had the first article that mentioned it, Seth Stohs’ Building a Pitching Pipeline. The article makes the classic comparison to what Cleveland had going in their starting rotation – filling it with the likes of Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Aaron Cavle, and others. Since then, the phrase has been used a total of 850 times as the discourse has ramped up – whether it exists, how strong it is, and how it has lived up to the various expectations we have given it.

I’ve split my plans on this into three parts – the first two going over a smatterings of opinions since the debate began in 2021, the last part going covering my opinions on the matter with analysis of the many pitching prospects that have been through this organization since the “Falvine” regime took over in 2017. Let’s try to understand the arguments that have been offered by taking a look at a variety of articles and comments on the matter, and I'll provide some commentary.

March 2021, Nick Nelson’s Starting Pitcher Analysis
"After four years of assembling the infrastructure and creating a culture of fearless development," wrote Dan Hayes at The Athletic recently, "the Twins front office feels as if its pitching pipeline is finally ready to churn out impressive arms at a more consistent rate." The Twins' top three pitching prospects – Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino – are verging on big-league ready.
FYI, at the time of this writing, Balzovic and Canterino hadn’t yet pitched in AA. 
June 2021
chpettit19: I firmly believe we'd be starting to see the "pitching pipeline" (not that they'd all come up and be great, but we'd have a better read on if there's real MLB arms in the system) at this point if 2020 had been a normal year. They went into that season, I believe, looking to make it through that season with a mix of veterans doing their thing and rookies getting test runs as injury replacements. Then they planned to be able to hand a spot or 2 in the rotation and pen to youngsters in 2021. Instead they got nothing from rookies last year because the world shut down.
Seansy: I think Falvey has delivered the pipeline of pitching talent but it's just been delayed due to COVID cancelling the minors season last year and all of the injuries now in the following year. Canterino, Enlow, Sands, Ober, Winder, Duran, etc. are all guys they have acquired and developed since taking over… I definitely think Falvey has held up his end of the pipeline even if we're only just barely starting to see the fruits of those labors.
This was an opinion shared by several users, as it was reasonable to suggest the 2020 season altered the timeline. But some began to see it as an excuse:
USAFChief: Did 2020 only happen to Twins minor leaguers?
June-July 2021, Tom Froemming’s On the Minnesota Twins Front Office, Faith and Being Fickle
The overall team success has been there (well, prior to this season) but this front office has not delivered a pitching pipeline nor impact pitching through free agency. About a month ago, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic took a look back at every Falvey-Levine era free agent signing. It wasn’t inspiring. Their record in trades isn’t looking so great, either.
Another article shared that of July 1st 2021, the Twins pitching staff was 29th in WAR. 
August 2021: Matthew Taylor’s 5 Free Agent Options for the Minnesota Twins to Replace José Berríos
Dman: They have about 10 guys that they have drafted or traded for that have a chance to be mid rotation starter types (i.e. throw hard enough, Have above average secondary's, Have had minor league success).  If they can't get that pitching to work at the MLB level time to find guys with a better idea how to accomplish that goal.  Once they have two or three solid young pitchers they should be set for another 3 to 4 year window and if they keep the pitching pipeline going maybe sustainable good to great seasons. If it doesn't the whole thing falls apart.
February 2022, Jamie Cameron’s The Michael Pineda Conundrum
The Twins have essentially been Cleveland’s opposite organization in recent seasons, struggling to create any meaningful starting pitching pipeline to the majors. This may be on the verge of changing with the Falvey led front office, with Jhoan Duran beginning to dominate at AAA and several other standout options working their way through MiLB.
After a surprisingly poor 2021 campaign left the Twins in last place, questions began to rise about the pitching understandly after the likes of JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Randy Dobnak, and Griffin Jax started games and had ERAs over 6.00. 
 
February 2022, Ted Schwerzler’s Twins Trading Offers Exciting Opportunity
Looking at the prospect rankings and, more importantly, the organizational location for Minnesota, it’s clear they need external help. The Twins farm system shows up consistently at the bottom of the teens, and outside of Jordan Balazovic, there isn’t an arm on the farm that’s a top 100 talent and ready to immediately contribute. An explanation for much of the feelings regarding the Twins system relates to the missed time the past few seasons.
Quite a shift in tone from the 2021 preseason article. Different authors, of course, and some key injuries happened in 2021.
mikelink45: Are we all over-rating the minor league arms?  Reading TD and following the threads it seems like we have lots of good arms, but stepping outside our community it seems a little sparse. 
bean5302: (In response to Balazovic being the only top 100 prospect pitcher) Winder and Balazovic are both potential mid-rotation guys, maybe even higher than that.
March 2022, Nash Walker’s Playoff Expansion Leaves No Excuses for Twins Front Office
The belief that the Twins, coming off a horrifically disappointing 73-win season *can’t* improve enough to win is giving too much slack to this front office. Ownership hired them to build a sustainable winner, a team that would compete every year. I understand there's a pitching pipeline coming.
cHawk: I’ve said this before and I still stand by it, the # of games the Twins win in 2022 will depend on how much the pipeline produces. If it does produce, I think the Twins could have a fighting chance in 2022. But this is the year which that needs to start happening, if there is baseball this year. If it doesn’t then it’s a failure.
DocBauer: Regarding sustainability, that doesn't mean, and has never meant, the Twins would be in contention EVERY season. NOBODY can guarantee that EVERY season. It's about being a good, solid team with a chance to win and be relevant MOST years. (Same with any sport) … But 3 of 5 years, to me, is a mark of sustainability, even with unexpected disaster in 2021.
For the record, the Twins won 78 games and have been to the playoffs in one of three seasons since the expansion and are not on track to do so in a fourth.
April 2022, Nick Nelson’s Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher
There's a lot of talent in this pipeline. It started coming to fruition a year ago, when Bailey Ober emerged as the team's steadiest starter and Joe Ryan arrived late with an eye-opening first impression. The Twins will be looking for more of where that came from this year, with a bevy of their top prospects in the high minors and at an age (23-25) where players tend to enter the big-league ranks.
THE BAD - I read the words now and they haunt me. Like corrosive acid, they eat away at my very soul. "If the Twins have ever fielded a better and deeper rotation than the one they're set to line up this year, I can't remember it," I wrote when introducing last year's starting pitching analysis. "From top to bottom (and beyond) this unit looks stacked."
I must give credit to Nick, he acknolwedged how off his 2021 starting pitcher analysis was.
Injuries and ill-fated signings ravaged the club's depth in 2021 and left the Twins scrambling for answers. It was understandable as a one-year blip. Another season of dreadful pitching performance will not be nearly as tolerable, and would leave Derek Falvey and Thad Levine open to all the criticism they'll receive. Their defiantly minimalist approach to the offseason pitching market will only be excusable if their methodically developed pitching pipeline pays off, and fast.
MikeSixel: This is the year their beliefs in not signing top FA pitchers and their ability to develop them has to pay off. Or I'd fire them. They've had long enough to draft and develop pitching..... And we're still waiting.
Mike8791: Falvine in 5+ years has not even been able to develop one reliever, no less a starter. 

In contrast, here is an April 2022 minor league update:
Wabene: There are some arms in the Saint's bullpen. Let's move quick the big league pen is doing us no favors. Overall you gotta like the pitching SWR, Raya, Hajjar, c'mon now we aren't even talking about Canterino, Varland and Enlow yet. And yet there are more.
Seth Stohs: The pitching pipeline is strong. No doubt about it.
 
July 2022: Various Game Threads
USAFChief: I sure don't read much about the vaunted pitching pipeline(TM) anymore.
Vanimal46: It’s been very disappointing with the lack of progression in the pitching pipeline. During the preseason, TD had 10 pitchers in the top 20 list. Chase Petty traded for Sonny Gray, so 9 remain. Ryan, Duran, and Winder are the ones contributing and the rest are struggling or injured. Balazovic in particular has been an utter disaster this year.
Bunsen82: Isn’t the goal to have a hitting and pitching pipeline? Compared to 4 years ago we have so much more pitching depth than we did back then.  We will have a lot of pitching options for next year.  Obviously the bullpen will need help.  
Negativity was the common attitude around the idea, as you’d expect in the midst of a second straight losing season, but there were some stragglers that had hope.
Danchat: And the pitching pipeline... we've had a few breakthroughs, but still not close enough to what Cleveland's (like we expected). Outside of Winder, we don't have any prospects on the near horizon that will be able to help this year.
I have news for you, past me. Winder ain’t it!
 
August: The Tyler Mahle trade
Dman: We needed another starter for this year and next year.  Let's hope a pitching pipeline develops in our lifetime and we don't have to make trades like this.
Wabene: Cleveland's vaunted pitching pipeline the Twins are trying to emulate was largely constructed through trades.
Gotta disagree big-time with Wabene, Cleveland wasn’t making trades like moving 3 prospects for 1.5 years of control of a mid-rotation starter. 
 
August 2022: Cody Christie’s “3 Reasons the Twins Farm System Ranking Continues to Drop” 
Linus: The vaunted pitching pipeline is turning out to be a garden hose.
KirbyDome89: Am I concerned about the continued inability to develop pitching? Absolutely.
LastOnePicked: 2022 was supposed to be the make-or-break year for this FO's ability to deliver on the pipeline. It hasn't happened, and there are no promising arms on the horizon. Time to move on.
Nicksaviking: So we were expecting everyone to pop up and be Atlanta circa ‘95? You’re being unreasonable with the expectations of inexperienced pitchers.
USAFChief: I'm not sure I was ever the one on the unreasonable side of expectations. But I hope I'm proven wrong, and we get some reliably above average pitching next year beyond Duran.
With the hindsight of 2023, I can tell Chief that we did get more “reliably above average” pitching, but it came from veteran additions / better play from the likes of Pablo Lopez, Brock Stewart, and Emilio Pagan. The pipeline produced Griffin Jax as a reliever and Ober finally broke through as a quality starter, but that was about it. Louie Varland was a passable fifth starter/long reliever and likes of Sands and Funderburk cleaned up some low leverage innings.

DJL44: Part of the problem is they are incredibly reliant on the MLB draft to fill the pitching pipeline. They are getting nothing from their international scouting.
A+ comment, I rarely ever see anyone talk about this but we’re three years in the future and we still have absolutely nothing developed from minors to majors from our international prospects. I will be covering this in a later part of my series.
September 2022: Nick Nelson’s Will Louie Varland Be Falvey's First Pitching Development Success Story?
Varland's got everything you could want: outstanding performance at every level, legitimate high-octane stuff, and -- perhaps most critically, where the Twins are concerned -- a seemingly strong bill of health and durability. Of course, those things were also true of Ober and Winder, and any number of other promising ascendant arms in this organization ... until they weren't. Petty is gone. Matt Canterino's out of the picture until 2024. Winder's health is an ongoing question mark. Jordan Balazovic has seen his stock plunge amidst a nightmare season. 
For even as pessimistic as I can be on the subject, I wouldn’t claim that there hadn’t been a single pitching development success story. Seth agrees with that sentiment:
SethStohs: Ryah, Duran... I would say Jax has absolutely been a success. Thielbar was older and had been around, but they got the best out of him. And, what's exciting is the pipeline. Obviously not all will make it, but the more that develop well, the more options down the line. David Festa was a Day 3 guy in 2021 and he's been dominant at two levels (this year's Varland). Jaylen Nowlin, their 19th round pick last year, has been very good.
KirbyDome89: The "pipeline," is a meme at this point. Every organization has a Festa or Nowlin; guys in low minors who maybe if things break right find themselves in a major league rotation. That can't be where the goalposts are shifting.
Dman: The OP is right I went into the year defending the FO for a pitching pipeline that had Balazovich, Sands, Henriquez, Winder, Duran, Enlow on the horizon, Varland, SWR, with some young guys coming up in Povich, Hajjar and Petty with outside chances in SGL, Headrick, Mooney and Festa.  Almost all of it has cratered or been traded away. It almost feels like they are back to square one.
I don’t remember this one! The article name certainly fits into my analysis.
September 2022: Cody Christie’s “Minnesota's Pitching Pipeline Plan Failed in 2022” 
Derek Falvey was brought to Minnesota because of his experience with the Cleveland organization. During his Cleveland tenure, one of his calling cards was cultivating young pitching, which has been a staple of the Guardians organization. Minnesota was going to start the 2022 campaign with Ryan and Ober in the rotation, but there were expectations that other young pitchers would join their ranks. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case, and Minnesota's pitching pipeline may have taken a step back this season… Many will blame injuries for the Twins' failures during the 2022 season. However, the lack of contributions from the pitching pipeline is also concerning. Not every pitching prospect can be successful throughout their professional careers, and there is hope that some of these arms will get healthy in the offseason. As Minnesota's focus turns to 2023, the front office might not be able to rely as heavily on the pitching pipeline when building next year's roster.
Ted Schwerzler: They’re hoping to have the likes of Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow, and Cole Sands give them real starter innings. Everyone mentioned there is close ...
USAFChief: And there we have it, folks...the first use of the vaunted "pitching pipeline" meme for 2023!
September 2022 marks the transition of “pitching pipeline” transitioning from talking point to meme. And the frustration continued to boil over:
 
December 2022: Brock Beauchamp’s “That’s it. I’m pretty much done with this front office.” 
I’m tired of trading for injured pitchers. I’m tired of the lack of pitching development. I simply don’t see many reasons to keep them around anymore. They’re not exceptional at anything and have significant flaws.
Twins Daily hit a low point when it was announced Carlos Correa had inked a massive deal and wasn’t going to be a Twin, you can imagine the responses in this article echoed Brock’s frustrations. However, as we know in hindsight the 2023 season went on to be a fairly successful one with the team winning 87 games, the division, and finally getting over that playoff bugaboo.

In Part 2, I’ll do some more analysis of the discourse over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. How did the successes of the 2023 season mold the opinions of Falvine and the so-called pitching pipeline? And then how did the big step back in 2024 effect it? Tune in next time to find out.

I think a great "soft sell" move would be the Twins trading 1 or 2 of Martin, Julien,  Miranda to Oakland for Luis Severino.
Severino is having a perceived bad year, He actually has value.
His split are solid away from that minor league ballpark the As play in, with an ERA of 3.03 on the road vs. 6.68 at home. while he is not a strikeout machine, he i slimiting hitters to a .212 avg on the road vs .303 at home.  Giving up .820 OPS at home but just .605 on the road.
He just signed a 3 year $67M deal this past offseason.  Part of the reason for that is the league mandate that Oakland had to spend to a certain threshhold.
I am sure MLB woudl frown on them just trading to slash salaries after that mandate, but they couldnt block a deal based on "baseball sense" 
 
So lets say Twins send 1-2 of Julien, Martin, Miranda to Oakland for Severino where Twins take on 100% of remaining salary this year, but Oakland retains 50% the next 2 years.
 
That would basically mean the Twins get Luis Servino on a 2 year deal (after this year at an average of $12M per). 2 years at $24M total would be a great sign as a FA signing of a pitcher of Severinos potential!!
If we get the "away" version of Severino for that money that is a STEAL!!!
Oakland is not contending this year, and most likely nto until they move to Vegas which is still not until 2028.  There is ZERO need to have Severino on the roster, and he wouldn't have been if they weren't forced to spend.
 
Would Severino be better than... Paddack? Zebby? Fest? Bullpen Game?  I think so!!
 
and next year with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, a potentially healthy Ober, Severino, would be a great base for a new ownership group to play with.
And none of Martin, Julien, Miranda, etc will be part of the future anyways.
 
Build for the future without "selling" now.
 

Well, it sure has been a while hasn't it? 2024 into 25 has been super hectic for me planning a move and the like but spring training starting finally got me the motivation to get writing again. But that's enough about me, you're here to read about Trevor Larnach, not some bozo living in a cheap apartment in Uptown.
So by now we all know Trevor Larnach's story, first round pick with tons of talent but had lingering injury issues holding him back, as is normal for 90% of the top prospects in the Twins system over the years. Now in the majors and turning 28 in two days (Happy early birthday Larchad!) and with elite talent below him in the minors, he's at a career crossroads and I believe this is the year he really puts it all together. So why am I gassing him up to such a huge degree? Well it comes down to three major things you can see in his hitting profile.
Statcast Batting Statistics
  Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity Max EV Launch
Angle LA Sweet-
Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% 2021 24 1211 158 15 9.5 5.0 90.0 116.0 13.1 34.8 .212 .376 .300 .306 .411 41.1 34.6 10.3 2022 25 724 105 12 11.4 6.7 90.1 112.4 13.1 36.2 .227 .442 .309 .322 .437 43.8 31.7 10.0 2023 26 915 113 15 13.3 7.1 90.1 112.0 17.5 41.6 .215 .431 .313 .323 .443 49.6 34.0 12.7 2024 27 1576 268 27 10.1 6.8 92.0 113.2 12.4 36.2 .259 .458 .336 .345 .405 45.1 22.3 10.0 Player   4426 644 69 10.7 6.3 90.9 116.0 13.6 36.8 .233 .428 .317 .326 .419 44.7 29.5 10.6 MLB       82372 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.5 22.2 8.4  
First off, Larnach hits the absolute **** out of the ball. looking at his batted ball data (shown above) you can see his average exit velocity in 2024 was 92 MPH compared to the league average of 88.5, which was good for top 10% of the league(!!!!), this along with an impressive max exit velo of 113.2 shows off the insane power Larnach has in his bat, but if you need an example here's a video of him hitting a no-doubt nuke into the Delta Sky 360 Club, something only 7 Twins hitters have accomplished (including Twins legends like Jake Cave, Tyler Austin and Byung-Ho Park): 
Twins - 1398716900658630662.mp4   Next up, Larnach has massively improved his strikeout and whiff rates. Referring back to the table (yeah I know I'm leaning on Statcast data to a pretty sad degree, but it is by far the best source imo) we can see Larnach brought his K rate down from a pretty sketchy 34% in 2023 to an almost exactly league average 22.3%. It's not elite or anything, but that mixed with his well above average walk rate combines for a player with the tools to be selective with his pitches and punish the ones he gets with the wrath of god.
Batted Ball Profile
  Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA 2021 45.6 24.7 25.9 3.8 39.9 33.5 26.6 4.4 32.9 23.4 23.4 6.3 9.5 5.0 2022 41.9 36.2 18.1 3.8 38.1 36.2 25.7 1.9 32.4 23.8 20.0 10.5 11.4 6.7 2023 34.5 38.1 23.0 4.4 38.9 42.5 18.6 4.4 20.4 28.3 21.2 12.4 13.3 7.1 2024 44.0 26.9 25.4 3.7 42.5 33.6 23.9 1.9 30.2 25.0 23.9 8.6 10.1 6.8 Player 42.4 29.8 23.9 3.9 40.5 35.6 23.9 3.0 29.5 25.0 22.7 9.0 10.7 6.3 MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8  
Now let's hop to the batted ball profile. So, to put it simply as my caveman brain loves to, what you want in a player with pop like Larnach does is two things, putting the ball into the air and pulling it, and shockingly Larnach does both well above league average. Looking at his spray chart from last year you can pretty clearly see it, literally all of his Home Runs are pulled at least a little bit

Now, as someone who has some ooga booga brain from time to time (I blame the brain damage from concussions back in High School Football), I have definitely fell into the eye test trap crying about how Larnach always hits the ball 5 million MPH into the ground for outs but this just isn't true. His GB rate is literally league average, I suppose it's bias seeing the ball smoked all the time leading you to think it happens more often than it does.
So with all this in mind we just need to touch the final but also most important thing, that he's gonna finally be a full-time starter on opening day! 2024 was a solid year that bought him a starting role that will finally give him the chance to put destiny in his own hands.
To conclude this rambling mess of stats and word vomit, Larnach has the tools to be a solidly above average corner OF.  I'm buying all the stock possible in him and even if you're jaded now I hope this might've fooled you into having some hope for our in-house players again. I leave you with perhaps the single greatest HR of Larnach's career, I honestly think this absolute monster could not be matched by even the likes of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, heck even Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds aren't hitting this kind of peak performance

Twins - 1660284314574106625.mp4    
 

Saint Paul, Minnesota - A critical fielding error from Wenceel Perez allowed Alex De Goti to hit a three-run home run, which helped the Saints pull away from the Mud Hens. Toby Gardenhire secured his 200th victory as a Triple-A manager on Sunday afternoon in a 7-2 Saints win over the Toledo Mud Hens in front of 8,212 fans. The Saints won four-of-six games on the homestand and improved to 59-42 on the season. 
In the first, Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick hit back-to-back home runs, which gave the Saints a 3-0 lead. 
In the third, Austin Martin singled with two outs. Next, Ernie Yake reached on a throwing error by Mud Hens second baseman Wenceel Perez, which allowed Martin to move to second. Finally, De Goti hit a three-run home run to left, which gave the Saints a 6-0 lead. 
Toledo would get on the board in the fourth when Parker Meadows hit a solo home run. 
Joe Rizzo hit a solo home run in the eighth off Andrew Bechtold. Bechtold has been used out of the bullpen recently for the Saints; however, he is listed/considered an infielder on the Saints roster. This was Bechtold's sixth pitching appearance this season. 
In the bottom of the inning Anthony Prato doubled. Later in the inning Garlick hit an RBI single, which gave the Saints a 7-2 lead. The Saints would win by that score. 
Louie Varland started for St. Paul. Varland worked six innings allowing one run on two hits. He struck out seven, and picked up the win, his fifth of the season with the Saints. Cole Sands worked a scoreless inning while allowing one hit. Bechtold and Boyle made appearances for the Saints on Sunday, but Ronny Henriquez pitched a perfect ninth to close out the game. 
Once again, the Saints left a ton of men on base. On Sunday afternoon 23 Saints players were left stranded on the base paths. 
Prato went 2-for-3 at the plate with two runs scored and two walks. His average improved to .345. 
The Saints are off on Monday and return to action on Tuesday night. The St. Paul Saints and Columbus Clippers (Cleveland Guardians) will play game one of a six-game series at Huntington Park in Columbus, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. (CT). St. Paul will send LHP Brent Headrick (3-1, 4.13) to the mound while Columbus will counter with RHP Zach Plesak (2-4, 6.18). The game can be seen on MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM. 

System overview:
A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
Hitters:
Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
-------------------------
Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
-------------------------
Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
-------------------------
Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
Pitchers:
Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
-------------------------
Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
-------------------------
Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
-------------------------
Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
 

The Good:
The ballpark was amazing. It had such a nice feel, the people were friendly and the cost of concessions were far less than an MLB game. I think the ballpark fit around 10,000 people and I think the attendance was around 7,000.  Most of the players were no names, but the fans definitely get behind their team. The players I did recognize were Seth Gray, Yunior Severino and obviously Brooks Lee.  One player I hadn't heard of was a young kid from the DR Yoyner Fajardo. He had 4 hits and scored 2 runs and was aggressive on the basepaths, one at bat he dug for 2 right out of the box and slid in safe with a double. He also stole 2 bases, which was quite enjoyable. He may never make it to the majors but I became a fan of his. He plays the game the way I like, always looking for the extra base. The Bad:
To say I was disappointed that Brooks Lee didn't get the start would be an understatement. He came in as a pinch hitter where he walked and then was caught stealing which really killed the little bit of momentum the team had. He ended up taking another walk in the bottom of the 10th. The 10th inning. It was ugly. A 2-2 game quickly became an 8-2 final due to 2 HBP, a walk, a fielders choice that ended with 0 outs. a sac fly, a single, a double, another walk, and yet another walk before they were finally out of the inning. The bullpen was wild and ineffective. The Wind Surge weren't able to get a run across in the bottom of the inning. What was a close guys quickly became a blow out and most fans were heading to the exit before the top of the 10th ended.  
My take:
Great place to catch a game! I will definitely be going back and hope to see some of the names in the big leagues in the future. 

For those who may be new to this game, I’ll give a detailed breakdown.
So when a pitcher faces a batter, three dice are rolled. The white die determines which card will be used; 1 to 3 summons the hitter card, and 4 to 6 summons the pitcher card. The two red dice will determine the outcome of the play. In a standard game, one would switch out the hitter cards for each batter and the pitcher cards during any pitching change. However, for my setup, I will be using the Master Hitting and Master Pitching cards. This prevents the need for a card for each player, which is also great because I’m cheap and hate spending money to buy more stuff!
Here’s part of my custom-made hitting card:

 
But how random and how varied can each player be if they’re all using the same card? The answer to that would be in the player’s skill level. At the current moment, here are the skills that are recorded:
Hitting 1 to 8 (higher number being the better value)
Power 1 to 8
Speed E to AA
Fielding 1 to 5
Drawing walks 1 to 5
Strikeout tendency 1 to 5
 
And for the pitchers:
Preventing hits 1 to 8
Preventing HRs 1 to 5
Allowing walks 1 to 5
Getting strikeouts 1 to 5
Here is an example; the current Twins squad:


 
This roster was created with stats from Baseball-Reference with specific cutoffs for each rank for each skill. Now here is a picture of some of the cuttoffs:

 
It can take a little while to come up with the teams since I have to research every single player, but this process helps me becoming more informed about other teams’ players
If you’re unfamiliar with Strat-O-Matic baseball, there are also a few supplemental charts. There’s the X-Chart, which either sees a groundball or flyball get hit at a certain position that will be difficult to play. Great defenders will almost always make the play, but the poorer the fielder, the higher chance of an error or a hit (lack of range, I guess). Here’s a screenshot of the X-Chart:

 
And there’s also the Strategy Chart. This determines how groundballs and flyouts will be fielded, and allows for managers to try bunting, hit-and-run, bringing the infield in, and more. Since I’m playing alone (is that weird to you guys?), I get to decide what strategy for each team might be the best. This also applies to pitching changes and offensive substitutions. Here’s part of the chart:

 
With all this put together, let’s test a plate appearance and see how things work:

 
In this scenario, Jorge Polanco faces Ryan Yarbrough. He rolls a 4-5, which goes to the pitching card, with the number 5. With this roll, the batter will groundout (though all runners on base will advance); however, if the pitcher is a #4 or 5 in strikeouts, the batter will strike out. Also, if the pitcher is a #1 or #2 hitting-wise, the batter will hit a single. Since Ryan Yarbrough is a #3 strikeout-wise and #5 hitting-wise, Polanco grounds out.
 
I hope you understand how the Strat-O-System works a little better now, and I’ll be bringing you another game this weekend. Post any questions or suggestions you may have!

Since roughly 2009 the Twins have had some well... rough seasons. When a team is bad, they become sellers at the deadline, and at least me personally, stop caring as much about the active games, and switch to focusing on prospects and the future.
During those bad years I become pretty fixated on prospects, so lets go over some that I really thought were gonna be good.
1. RHP Dakota Chalmers
Woof. I was so high on this guy when we acquired him from Oakland for Fernando Rodney in 2018. I blame Garvin Alston, the Twins pitching coach at the time, for talking up Dakota from his time coaching in the A's minor league system. I can't quite remember what he said but I'm almost certain he called him a "potential system changing arm" and I was hooked. Chalmers had a myriad of injuries as well as off the field mental health stuff that lead to him not pitching a whole lot before coming to the Twins, but once he did he had success. In 2019 he even pitched in the AA playoffs, and everyone seemed to be talking about his stuff, I was so intrigued. He was added to the 40 man roster in 2021 and I envisioned all his success, and it was followed by struggles and a pretty quick DFA. I was devastated. Since then he has been on a few different teams with little success, and is currently in the Dodgers system.
2. RHP Fernando Romero
Most Twins fans will probably remember this one, and probably at some point felt the same I did. A top arm in the Twins system for years, what wasn't to like about him. A fastball that reached 100 mph (This was pre Graterol and Duran so the Twins just frankly never saw that) and a wipeout slider to boot. We all remember his electric 2018 rookie season, where he had immediate success. He did drop off slightly as the year went on but still, the sky was the limit. That was followed by a ton of control issues in 2019 and after the season, he was out of the MLB completely (Although he potentially had a chance to re establish himself in 2020, but it was stopped completely by Visa issues. Because well... there were some things going on in the world that made it tough to travel) He is currently pitching in Japan.
3. OF Adam Brett Walker
This one was more me just being young and naïve more than anything. ABW was a 3 true outcome guy before it was cool. High power, high strikeout, and not a whole lot else. I really had no reason to be high on him besides the fact he had some really exciting homeruns. Wow could he hit the ball when he connected. He really was never much of a true prospect and never even got added to the 40 man in a Twins uniform. His last year with the Twins was in 2016, he bounced around the league until 2018. He then moved to indy ball, and actually some some success as recent as 2021, but it never materialized into a second MLB chance. He's currently playing in Japan.
4. OF Oswaldo Arcia
Much like Romero, I feel like most fans will remember this name. Arcia was an international FA signed in 2008, who quickly worked his way up through the levels and had a TON of success at each level. He reached the majors in 2013 and had some initial success, but really couldn't put together any consistency year-to-year. from 2013-2016 he was basically on the Twins taxi squad going up and down multiple times a year. The Twins eventually gave up on waiting and traded him to the Rays, but that didn't last very long. Altogether he was on 4 total teams (TBR, SDP, MIA, MIN) in 2016 but really had no success with any of them. In 2017 he had somewhat of a renaissance in the DBacks system, but I don't think anything could've happened to get him up with the team. Arcia was pretty much the definition of a AAAA player. He is currently playing in an Independent league.
5. RHP Alex Wimmers
I don't really have an explanation on this one. He was a first round pick I suppose so that always makes you hope they work out. Wimmers had a 22 game cup of coffee from 2016-2017 and had very mediocre results. in 2018 he struggled at AAA and was released. He had a short stint that year with Miami but registered no official playing time. He is currently not playing baseball anywhere.
Some of these are more defensible than others, but I just wanted to talk about them.
Thanks.

Royce Lewis I have been conservative about Lewis for a while, and it is time to admit that he is the best prospect in the Twins system. His hit tool looks real, at least much better than before, and the eye test shows that he can currently play a passable shortstop, a significant point in his development. The Twins are lowering him into a super-utility role, which is fine given his athleticism, but I would prefer to have him challenged at shortstop every day. There is no real easy answer to that conundrum until Carlos Correa no longer calls that position home. For now, we shall appreciate watching a unique talent perform at the highest level for years to come.                                                
Austin Martin  2022 has not been the best season for Martin. He is striking out at a lower rate but is somehow hitting for less power than before; his season wRC+ sits at 95. While I have supreme confidence in his bat turning around eventually, his glove is a different story. He is not a shortstop; that is clear now. I’m not sure what position he can play, but the Twins will have to find one, and his value is now much lower as a super-utility guy unable to cover such a crucial position. He also has a ridiculous 20 steals, perhaps hinting at a skillset philosophy leaning closer towards a traditional, scrappy type of player. I think he’ll figure it out and become a useful major league player, but his future is far hazier than one prefers from one of their best prospects.                                  
Jose Miranda           Although not because of his performance, Miranda moves up one spot in my ranking. He hasn’t hit during his time in the majors, owning terrible batted ball data during his brief stint that ended with Lewis’ re-appearance on the Twins. One should never overreact to 70 plate appearances, and Miranda’s 2021 was so legendary that I tend to believe this to be a fad and not an indictment of his hitting ability. He owns a rare batting average/power combo that few in baseball can claim, and that alone is what keeps Miranda sitting near the top of this list. Time shall tell whether Miranda can find his groove again.          
-------------------------       
Jordan Balazovic       I’m still a firm believer in Balazovic as the team’s best pitching prospect, but it has been an extended period since he last unquestionably dominated hitters for a significant stretch, and it’s fair to lean into doubts. Early returns at AAA have been ugly, although the eye doesn’t catch exactly what the problem for him seems to be. He’s avoided major injury, but the nicks and dings are starting to add up, holding him back from being the “set-it-and-forget-it” ace that many thought he would become after his excellent 2018 and 2019 performances. Again, let’s not overreact, but it’s time for a correction of sorts for Balazovic.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Noah Miller    Miller is good, and people should recognize this as soon as possible. 19-year-old shortstops are not supposed to dominate A-ball like this, and the ones that do tend to become exceptional players. He’s hitting for a 146 wRC+ with reportedly silky smooth defense that could play if the team called him up tomorrow. He isn’t hitting for much power (ISO of .113), but that feels like an extreme nitpick for an otherwise otherworldly performance this far into the season. Get used to his name this high on prospect lists.
Emmanuel Rodriguez Rodriguez could have easily claimed the five spot, but Miller’s shortstop potential broke the tie, and Rodriguez ends up here. He’s also just 19, which is ridiculous, and he’s walking at a 27.3% clip while slugging .475. If one wanted to nitpick, he’s also striking out 28.5% of the time, a number digestible given his age, but one to keep an eye on given how sticky strikeout numbers tend to be as a player changes levels. His profile will clear up with time (mainly whether he owns discipline or is plain passive against wild pitchers), but things are exciting for the former international big shot signing. 
Spencer Steer I don’t think that Steer is legitimately a 147 wRC+ batter, but it is apparent that he is a well-rounded player with a potentially rare batting average/OBP/power combination. His best comp is probably Jose Miranda’s 2021 season which was equally impressive in how he didn’t have to sacrifice batting average for power. We’ve seen that combo struggle in the majors over a short sample with Miranda, but a player like Ty France proves that it can work with refinement. He can pass at both 3rd and 2nd base, giving the team options if they ever decide to clean out their gutter at 3rd or trade Jorge Polanco. 
-------------------------
Simeon Woods Richardson I originally had Woods Richardson above the previous three hitters, but I kept questioning whether I was more excited about him or the other batters, and you can see the answer I came to. Woods Richardson’s ERA is excellent, but his FIP is merely passable, and his xFIP is dreadful; combine that with a suspicious BABIP, and I’m not sold that he has improved significantly since struggling at AA all of last season. He’s still just 21, which feels impossible, but his stock remains stagnant in my eyes.
Matt Canterino Canterino is a reliever. Usually, I don’t consider relievers prospects, but his stuff is so otherworldly that it’s not out of the question that he becomes a 2-3 inning fire-breathing dragon, which can be extremely valuable to every team in MLB. He has already bested his innings total from last season, and he should be up with the team down the stretch if he can remain healthy. Walks are up this year, but I believe that to be a mirage and not a loss of command for a pitcher who has otherwise thrown strikes during his time in the minors. 
Cole Sands I like Sands more than I probably should. He flashed an incredible sweeper during his cup of coffee, a pitch that I believe can carry him to some sort of helpful niche in the team’s pitching staff. The rest of his profile is pretty vanilla, and he’s currently on the IL, a statement often too true about Sands, but the power of his breaker keeps him elevated on my list.
Ronny Henriquez Henriquez is still a somewhat mysterious prospect. He came over as an afterthought in the Mitch Garver deal and has flashed some major league playable stuff but has yet to play enough for me to get as good of a read on him. It’s been a rough go at AAA so far, but he’s not even 22-years-old yet, and his development feels like it will be more of a slow burn a la Woods Richardson rather than a fiery explosion like Jhoan Duran. 
Edouard Julien Julien is unfortunately injured at the moment, but his profile is far too intriguing to ignore. It’s not every day that one comes across a player practically guaranteed to get on base at a .400 clip, but Julien is precisely that kind of player. His OBP is true, a sign of patience over passivity, which will carry him across all levels of baseball. He’s more positionless than one would like, but his bat projects so well that the Twins will find a way to make it work.
Marco Raya Raya was a popular pop-up pick in the pre-season, and he’s impressed so far with an 18.8 K-BB%. His stuff is electric, the classic mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider combo that fans can dream on with a curve and change that will need refinement as he elevates through the minors. It has been less than 30 innings into Raya’s professional debut, but it’s easy to see why the Twins were so high on him in the 2020 draft.
David Festa The Twins system has lost top-end credibility due to some graduations and players in that tier struggling, but their middle area has beefed up considerably thanks to arms like Festa. Festa came out of nowhere in 2022, dominating hitters with Fort Myers before enjoying a promotion to Cedar Rapids. His K-BB% sits at 28.9%, the highest in the system amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Encarnacion-Strand went supernova to begin the season, netting all the RBIs before gently cooling off and settling in as a merely great, not Bondsian hitter. Evaluators are still baffled by Encarnacion-Strand; he fits into the scary right/first baseman/college bucket from which hitters go to die (or become Pete Alonso), and it’s unclear if he’s made proper adjustments since joining the Twins organization. For now, it’s best to shrug your shoulders and continue to ride the wave.
Cade Povich Povich, like Raya, was also a popular breakout pick for 2022. He’s responded with an eye-catching 27.4 K-BB%, a total bested only by Shane McClanahan amongst qualified MLB pitchers this year. It’s not a 1:1 comp, but his success should not be understated, and he could find himself at AA sooner rather than later at this rate.
-------------------------   
Blayne Enlow I remain a firm believer in Enlow. Tommy John surgery derailed his path to AA in 2021, but he recently returned from the procedure, and his performance the rest of the season will help illuminate his prospect status; it says a lot that the Twins protected him in the rule 5 draft despite his injuries and underperformance. 
Brayan Medina Medina has yet to pitch in an organized game for the Twins, so this ranking is an aggregate of other publications rather than a personal evaluation.                                                                             
Louie Varland    Varland is not having as fine a season like 2020, but he has still settled in as a consistent, reliable arm at AA. The walks have crept up while his home run rate has ballooned, perhaps an ominous sign of regression waiting in the wings. Back-sliding has not hit yet, so he remains solidly in the mid-tier of prospects until otherwise.      
Steve Hajjar Hajjar, like Povich, was an intriguing breakout arm to keep an eye on in 2022. He’s punched out a small army but has also walked far too many batters for his good; less than 50% of plate appearances against him have ended with a ball put into play. It has been less than 30 innings, but I’m far leerier of his skillset translating unless he tames his walks. 
Brent Headrick Like Gipson-Long in the next spot, Headrick is an old-for-his-level starter who has easily crushed his competition. His command is much improved in 2022, and hitters are now overwhelmed by stuff that they can no longer just wait out for the inevitable walk. He’s so similar to Gipson-Long in this regard that I gave him the one-spot nod for better peripherals (28.3 K-BB %).
Sawyer Gipson-Long Gipson-Long is an old-for-the-level starter but should not be ignored when looking at this system. He has picked up right where he left off in 2021, owning the 9th best K-BB% rate amongst all pitchers with 30 innings in the system this year (22.4%). He should get a taste of AA soon, which will help illuminate his prospect status more than feasting on A+ hitters. 
-------------------------
Kala’i Rosario Rosario is a raw, toolsy prospect dipping into the full-season waters for the first time. His 94 wRC+ is far from disastrous, but his 39.2% strikeout rate is ghastly, perhaps a sign that he’s still too green. As a 19-year-old, he exists in that frustrating “potential” sphere of prospect evaluation where his struggles are summed up as him “learning,” and no actual analysis is gleaned from his performance. In summary: early returns are not favorable but not indictable yet. 
Matt Wallner  To be blunt, I have little faith in Wallner becoming a valuable major league player. Hitters who strike out 34% of the time need legendary power to negate their whiffs, and Wallner seems to have merely great, not jaw-dropping power. He can still walk and bop homers, but I remain skeptical of his skillset translating at the major league level; Brent Rooker soured any ability I have to overlook one’s strikeout rate.
Aaron Sabato Speaking of hitters striking out too much, Sabato has been disappointing since the Twins took him in the 1st round in 2020. He can take a walk, but his ISO is far lower than one wants from a pure 1st baseman (.163). At this point, I don’t expect Sabato to become a useful contributor for the Twins, and he can join Keoni Cavaco in the club of “Falvey and Levine’s unwise 1st round picks.” Speaking of which…
Keoni Cavaco Cavaco has never shown any consistent ability to hit at any level during any extended period of play. His career minor league OBP begins with a .2, which should tell you everything you need to know. Yes, injuries have played a role in his poor performance, but injuries can’t excuse his immense strikeout problems, and his ranking on any prospect list is honorary at this point. I’m holding on to his draft pedigree, but he will be dropped soon unless his performance turns around.
John Stankiewicz I have no idea what to make of Stankiewicz. He was an undrafted free agent in 2020 and has performed very well during his time in the Twins system. Time will tell if it’s a lower-level mirage, but he should still be a name to remember throughout the remainder of the season. 
Jake Rucker I just wanted to get Rucker a mention on one of these lists. Since the Twins drafted him in 2021, he's held his own and has improved his ISO (.059 to .111) despite the rest of his stat-line not falling in line. He feels like the kind of prospect who can suddenly be in AAA despite flying under the radar for the entirety of his professional career. 
Misael Urbina Urbina showed great peripherals in 2021 (12.3% walk rate, 18.7% K rate), which lost out overall to his otherwise poor slash line. Visa issues have delayed the start of his season, which is both a shame and a detriment to his development. Hopefully, he’ll be playing baseball in the Twins system soon.
Drew Strotman The clickbait 30 spot goes to Strotman out of deference towards teams far wiser than I. The Rays added Strotman to the 40-man roster, and the Twins targeted him in a trade now overshadowed by Joe Ryan’s success, showing that there are franchises that believe in him. He is now a reliever, limiting his upside, but I’ll wait to give up on him when the Twins do.
 

I went off on a tangent in mikelink45’s extremely well written and thought provoking post “When Baseball was King”. But started thinking about why baseball isn’t king. In my mind a significant shift happened in the late 70s and early 80s. The sport that I think was a major contributor was the NFL and not just that the NFL broadcasted it’s games to wide regional audiences scheduled to minimize overlap and put premium matchups in prime time, there was one man…
If you’ve been watching NFL games lately, you probably know who I’m talking about: John Madden. The man was a superstar of TV broadcasting. The formula was simple, teach the game in understandable jargon, show everyone how much you LOVE the game.
1988’s John Madden Football video game has the quintessential story about it. The narrative is that Madden wouldn’t lend his name to the game unless it taught kids the strategy and critical thinking.
By the 90s many NFL commentators copied Madden, pulling out the telestrator and yelling “boom” but Madden’s legacy lives today through new teachers of the game like Tony Romo.
Henry Ford was quoted once "I will build a motor car for the great multitude...constructed of the best materials, by the best men to be hired, after the simplest designs that modern engineering can devise...so low in price that no man making a good salary will be unable to own one-and enjoy with his family the blessing of hours of pleasure in God's great open spaces."
What Madden, the NFL, and Henry Ford got right is achieving accessible consumer products and experiences. By making them affordable, available and understandable the products/services blossomed into dominant actors in their segments.
But alas, this is not a football blog. This, is a baseball blog. In the early days of cable, the MLB didn’t coordinate on an mlb schedule or TV contract that facilitated the growth of the league or airing prime matchups to nation wide audiences. They let the individual teams reach their own TV contracts, competing not only on the diamond, but limiting viewership on the air waves.
Has there ever been an MLB teacher of the game, a John Madden-esque commentator who taught deeper insights, strategies? A superstar? Not just describing what happened, but why. There’s many Bert Blylevens’s and John Smoltz’s while on air, talk about why they don’t like the game, and bad-mouth the math nerds, while saying stuff that is antithetical to the strategy of why the shift or pitch call was actually happening in the game.
I fall into the camp of fan that the analytics enhances my enjoyment of the game. That is not the case for every fan. The analytical math nerds have taken over many of the successful teams, but of course we don’t want math lessons live on TV. How can baseball more thoroughly democratize the data? Teach the strategies that make the game so slow and confusing for casual fans? Accentuate the minutia that Madden did with the telestrator 40 years ago?
Who can be the baseball equivalent of Henry Ford and John Madden?

Prospects are exciting, but they do come with some risks. The Twins currently seem to have as deep of a system as ever, but until the prospects reach the majors, it doesn’t matter. Today I will be revisiting the 2018 Twins Top 30 Prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, going through #1 to #15 on the list, and give some reason for hope, and some for fear for the current crop.
 
#1 Royce Lewis
Acquired: Drafted 2017, 1st Overall
Current Team: Twins Organization
Royce Lewis was a bit of a surprise being drafted #1 overall in 2017, many believed it would be high school flamethrower Hunter Greene going to the Twins instead. He is still currently the #1 prospect in the Twins system. Royce Lewis has shown plenty to be excited about, but also has shown some concerns, especially tearing his ACL right before spring training in 2021. He figures to be the most important piece to the Twins success in the coming years, will he be able to live up to the hype?
 
#2 Fernando Romero
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2011, $260,000 Signing Bonus
Current Team: Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Japan)
Likely the biggest letdown on this list, Romero was a late find for the Twins, who had some competition in signing Romero. Ultimately, it all worked out and the Twins got a deal done. Romero played well in his first couple years of minor league ball before tearing his UCL and requiring Tommy John surgery, knocking him out of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. He came back and worked his way up to his debut in 2018, pitching well for a few starts and ended the season with a 4.69 ERA. The Twins tried to turn him into a bullpen piece in 2019, but to no avail. It failed miserably and he was sent back to the minors. In 2020 he could not get into the United States for Spring Training due to visa issues, and was ultimately released late in 2020.
 
#3 Stephen Gonsalves
Acquired: Drafted 2013, 110th Overall
Current Team: Cubs Organization
Another massive letdown. Unlike Romero, Gonsalves never found any big league success, even for a few starts. He was expected to go higher, but an incident where he lied to the dean of his high school was made public and as a result, he fell lower in the draft. The Twins signed him away from his San Diego college commitment. He only pitched 24.2 innings in the majors for the Twins, all in 2019 ending with a 6.57 ERA. He has been in multiple other organizations throughout the past 2 years, only having big league time with the Red Sox in 2021.

 
#4 Nick Gordon 
Acquired: Drafted 2013, 5th Overall
Current Team: Twins
Gordon has had a rather long journey to the big leagues. He was drafted very high in 2013 and posted solid stats in the minors, and was finally added to the 40-man after the 2018 season. Gordon’s season was limited in 2019 due to injuries, and he endured a rough battle with Covid-19 during the cancelled 2020 minor league season, knocking him out of any possible baseball activity. He finally made his long awaited debut with the Twins, playing his way into a possible future role as a super-utility man. I personally am a big fan of Gordon and think he will be a good player for the Twins in the coming years. Fun fact: Outside of baseball, Nick Gordon also raps with his stage name of G Cinco.
 
#5 Wander Javier
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2015, $4 Million Signing Bonus
Current Team: Twins Organization
When the Twins signed Wander Javier out of the DR, they gave him the highest signing bonus in franchise history, breaking Miguel Sano’s $3.15 Million in 2010. The first 2 years of his professional career looked good, and he could be a big contributor for the Twins in the future. Since then, not much has gone right. He has battled injuries and has been inconsistent to say the least. On the bright side, he is still only 22 years old, and plays a premium position, shortstop. If he can find what he seemed to once have he still has enough time to become a solid Major Leaguer.
 
#6 Alex Kirilloff
Acquired: Drafted 2016, 15th Overall
Current Team: Twins
Alex Kirilloff was drafted out of Pennsylvania as a good hitting corner outfielder. He didn’t disappoint in his first taste of pro ball in 2016, but in 2017 he needed Tommy John surgery, knocking him out for the year. He really broke out in 2018 and earned a top 20 rank in most prospect lists. Kirilloff had a good first showing in the MLB in 2021, but just had some bad luck on batted balls as well as a wrist injury ended his season early. Although he can play outfield, it appears he will be the Twins first baseman of the future.
 
#7 Brusdar Graterol
Acquired: Signed out of Venezuela in 2014, $150,00 Signing Bonus
Current Team: Dodgers
Saying Brusdar throws hard is an understatement, he throws extremely hard. He also has good offspeed. The Twins traded him along with Luke Raley to the Dodgers in exchange for Kenta Maeda. Graterol has only been used in the bullpen by the Dodgers, and rightfully so. He had posted mixed results. Personally, I am content with the trade. Sure, Brusdar could have been a good bullpen arm for the next 5+ years, but we got a near Cy Young season with Maeda. An elbow injury ended his season early and will likely eat up his whole 2022 season, but he has shown how good of a pitcher he can be, and in my opinion, you cannot be too upset with the trade.
 
#8 Brent Rooker
Acquired: Drafted 2017, 35th Overall
Current Team: Twins
What could have been, and what might still be. Rooker has shown off the light-tower power he was drafted for, but also hasn’t been very consistent. He has proven just about everything he has needed to in the minors, but can’t quite figure it out in the majors. Over his 2 partial year Major League career, he has had a 32.1% strikeout rate. He also plays below average defense in right and left field. If he can find his swing in the majors, he could be a great DH or good corner outfielder, but time is running out, especially since he is already 27.
 
#9 Blayne Enlow
Acquired: Drafted 2017, 76th Overall
Current Team: Twins Organization
The Twins paid Enlow over twice slot value at $2 million, to keep him from going to LSU. He had pitched very well in the minors, but has been injured a fair amount too. A few weeks into the 2021 season it was revealed that he would need Tommy John surgery, keeping him out until mid-2022. The Twins have shown they have faith in him though, adding him to the 40-man roster this offseason rather than risk losing him. He is still young enough though, he is currently 22 and will be 23 on opening day. I think he will become a good starter in the majors.
 
#10 Lewin Diaz
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2014, $1.4 Million Signing Bonus
Current Team: Marlins
Lewin Diaz was the guy we traded for Sergio Romo at the 2019 trade deadline. More importantly, along with Romo, we obtained Chris Vallimont, who has shown signs of brilliance, but also has had trouble. Lewin Diaz can hold his own at first base defensively, but he has had trouble hitting in the majors. He has hit well enough in the minors, but like Rooker, has never figured it out at the major league level. In his Major League career over 161 AB’s, he owns a .193 batting average. He is currently 25 years old.
 
#11 Akil Baddoo
Acquired: Drafted 2016, 74th Overall
Current Team: Tigers
The one that got away. The Tigers selected Akil Baddoo in the 2020 Rule 5 draft. Nobody could have expected he would play this well. He only had one really good season in the minors, that being in 2017. In 2019, early in the season it was revealed he would need Tommy John surgery, which seems to be a recurring theme in Twins outfield prospects on this list. Anyways, the Tigers selected him in the Rule 5 draft and he was a well above average hitter in the majors, posting a 113 OPS+.You cannot really blame the Twins for losing him, they appeared to have all of the outfield depth in the world, and Baddoo still looked multiple years away from the show.
 
 
#12 Lewis Thorpe
Acquired: Signed out of Australia in 2012, $500,000 Signing Bonus
Current Team: Twins Organization
There were reports that he was finally reaching his potential this past spring training. He had increased fastball velocity and was in the best shape of his life. None of that translated to games that mattered. He was signed as a crafty lefty out of Australia in 2012, with a fastball sitting around 90 MPH. He has had no big league success to this point, in all 3 years he has appeared in a major league game (2019 ,20, 21), he has been below average. The only way that seems possible for him to stick in the majors is if he becomes a bullpen arm, and like many other Twins fans, I am not buying it.
 
#13 Lamonte Wade Jr.
Acquired: Drafted 2015, 260th Overall
Current Team: Giants
Another one that got away. Lamonte Wade Jr. looked like he could have been a decent 4th outfielder for the Twins. The Twins chose Jake Cave over him, and sent Lamonte packing to San Francisco in exchange for project piece Shaun Anderson. Anderson ended up pitching less than 10 innings for the Twins before being released. Wade Jr. on the other hand, broke out in a huge way. He posted a 117 OPS+ for the Giants and looks to be a big piece of their future. He even received MVP votes in 2021. For the record, I always liked Lamonte Wade over Cave, but no one could have expected he would be this good. I am happy Wade broke out, and even happier it wasn’t for an AL team.
 
#14 Travis Blankenhorn
Acquired: Drafted 2015, 80th Overall
Current Team: Mets
Blankenhorn was pretty average throughout his minor league career for the Twins. His ceiling seemed to be a good utility player. He made his debut in 2020, going 1 for 3 with a double. He played one game for the Twins in 2021, as a defensive replacement. He made a costly error against the Athletics, which was paired with a Luis Arraez throwing error, which cost the game. That game seemed to send the season to the trash can and kind of lost hope for everyone. Days after the error, he was DFA’d and picked up by the Mets, which is where he currently plays. It never seemed meant to be with the Twins, and I hope for the best of luck in the future for Travis.
 
#15 Zack Littell
Acquired: From Yankees (Traded for Jaime Garcia at 2017 Deadline)
Current Team: Giants
Littell was originally drafted by the Mariners, then a few years later traded to the Yankees. Soon after, he was sent to Minnesota along with Dietrich Enns, in exchange for Jaime Garcia and cash considerations, in one of the most puzzling trades in team history. Littell had success out of the pen in 2019, and then looked lost in 2020. I was always a believer in him but it doesn't really matter what I think. He was eventually released and picked up by the San Francisco Giants. Littell rebounded in a huge way in 2021, posting a 2.92 ERA for the Giants in 61.2 innings. He looks to be a reliable bullpen arm for them in the coming years.

Notable 16-30
#19 Mitch Garver
Acquired: Drafted 2013, 260th Overall
Current Team:Twins
Garver broke out fairly late in his career, during his age 27 season. However, he broke out in a huge way, cementing himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the MLB. As a result of Garver breaking out late, he is already getting up there in age for a catcher. He will be 31 on opening day, which is decently old for a catcher. If he is still with the Twins after this offseason, he looks like he will catch for a few more years, and then it is likely he will transition over to a 1B/DH role. There is also a small chance he will play one of the most physically demanding positions in sports, catcher, for 5+ more years, due to how Baldelli rests his catchers.
 
#23 Luis Arraez
Acquired: Signed out of Venezuela in 2013, $40,000 Signing Bonus
Current Team: Twins
You always know what you will get with Arraez, high average, not a whole lot of power. That is what has made him one of my favorite Twins to watch. Some people believe Arraez will be dealt this offseason, but only time will tell. He currently holds down a utility role for the Twins. He broke out defensively this year, becoming a top 5 defensive 3rd baseman in 2021. He may have found his defensive home for the future, but he will have to beat out young buck Jose Miranda, who is mentioned soon in this list. Arraez also carries injury concerns, he has torn an ACL during his minor league career, and overall has “balky” knees. I think he could be a great leadoff hitter for the next 10 years if his body can hold up.
 
#25 Ben Rortvedt
Acquired: Drafted 2016, 56th Overall
Current Team: Twins
Like Arraez, you know what you are getting with Rortvedt. Rortvedt isn’t a force with the bat, but does have some power. He is highly regarded for his defense, profiling as the best in the system. With the Twins surplus of catching, he will likely serve as the 3rd catcher, playing most of his games in Saint Paul. It is nice to have him on hand though, as there could be some moves involving catchers after the lockout, and freak injuries happen with catchers. If he can bump his offense to average for a catcher, his defense will carry him to being an above average MLB catcher.
 
#28 Jose Miranda
Acquired: Drafted 2016, 73rd Overall
Current Team: Twins Organization
It wasn’t until this year that Miranda broke out, and he did it in a big way. Everybody knew Miranda had good tools, maybe they didn’t know they were this good though. He finally put them all together and hit over .340 on the season with 30 bombs between AA and AAA. He looks like he will be the 3rd baseman of the future for Minnesota, but stats don’t matter until the show, so we'll just have to wait and see. He is still fairly young, being 23 years old and he is one of, if not the best hitter in the whole system.
 
This list should provide a good realization that prospects are just prospects. Some are more likely to contribute at the MLB, hence the rankings, but odd things can happen. Also, it should show that lower ranking prospects can provide a big impact in the big leagues, so don’t always write them off. This list likely brought up some names you have forgotten, and some you wish you could forget *cough cough Baddoo* The future of this team is resting on their current farm system, which should hopefully provide fun baseball for years to come. After all, even Mike Trout was a prospect once. Thank you for reading. Leave a comment. Go Twins!!!
 

Like Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach has failed to impress in his rookie season, but Larnach has a lot more wiggle room for many fans. Larnach is, after all, 2 years younger than Rooker and Larnach barely played above the A+ ball level with only 181 plate appearances in AA in 2019. The loss of the 2020 season made a mess out of a lot of the projections for prospects with the prospects who were getting their first taste of the high minors in AA probably being hit the hardest. Larnach’s production this year hasn’t been what fans had hoped for, but with his limited upper MiLB experience, there’s reason to hope it was bad luck or a single pitch that troubled him on way to his .223/.322/.350, .677 OPS, wRC+ 89, OPS+ 88, wOBA .301 performance across a significant 301 appearances at the plate.

Since Larnach doesn’t have the MiLB track record Rooker does, it’s important to take a peek at who Larnach was expected to be. Prior to his draft year in 2018, Larnach was a 40th round draft pick out of high school in 2015 and wasn’t considered a high round pick before his breakout junior season at Oregon State.
Year Level Age AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS 2016 Oregon St. Freshman .157 .271 .176 .019 .448 2017 Oregon St. Sophomore .303 .421 .429 .126 .850 2018 Oregon St. Junior .348 .463 .652 .304 1.116 2018 Rk / Low-A a21 .303 .390 .500 .197 .890 2019 A+ / AA a22 .309 .384 .458 .149 .842 2021 MLB a24 .223 .322 .350 .127 .672 2021 AAA a24 .176 .323 .373 .197 .695 After the draft, MLB.com had Larnach as the Twins’ 6th ranked prospect and gave him scouting grades as follows: Hit 55, Power 55, Run 40, Arm 55, Field 50, Overall 50. Larnach was widely considered a bat only prospect due to his poor speed limiting Larnach to projections of a serviceable defensive option in left field. Larnach’s hit tool was considered very advanced as he drove the ball hard off the bat, had experience in the Cape Cod league with wooden bats against high levels of competition and used the entire field which largely made him immune to shifts. That said, Larnach’s hit tool wasn’t considered plus-plus because of the fair amount of swing and miss at the plate. Once in college, Larnach had raw strength and bat speed from putting on 50lbs of weight to his high school frame, but his draft stock stayed low through his sophomore year as he needed to hit for power to generate high interest levels. When Larnach’s power appeared to blossom with 19 home runs in 2018 as a junior in a tough college division, scouts rocketed Larnach up the draft ranks despite the limited track record as it was always felt he had the potential to grow into the long ball. 
Unfortunately, Larnach’s swing looks to be more like Joe Mauer than Justin Morneau so the home run power hasn’t re-materialized and 2018’s long ball show is beginning to look more like an aberration than the norm. Larnach’s ceiling is likely far lower now, but it doesn’t mean he can’t provide value at the MLB level using only an advanced hit tool and serviceable defense in the corners; he’s just not going to be projecting as a regular All Star. That would still be a huge win for the front office. So let’s dive into the metrics to see what’s going on cause this year was ugly.

First off, was Larnach just unlucky in his first taste of the big show? Luck can bounce both ways and a half season worth of baseball can quickly shift around across a full season of plate appearances.
  AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Actual .223 .322 .350 .672 .301 Expected* .208 .309 .369 .678 .304 *BaseballSavant has xBA at .209 which results in 54.34 hits, but since that’s not a real number, I rounded down to 54 hits. His xSLG was .368 which resulted in 95.68 bases so I rounded up to 96 for xSLG calcs. I used Larnach’s actual walks and hit by pitch numbers to calculate his new xOBP so I could calculate his xOPS.
There isn’t an obvious luck factor to see in the numbers. A few points of AVG loss is more than made up for by some SLG improvement. As a player who was touted as using the whole field, Larnach has been pretty pull heavy with a 39.9% / 33.5% / 26.6% pull, center, opposite ratio, from BaseballSavant, but it’s not a profile where the split would be particularly effective. Still, Fangraphs reports MLB teams frequently deployed the shift against Larnach anyway. None of Larnach’s home runs went to the opposite field this year with virtually everything in left field just winding up as a single. The lack of home runs and extra base hits is to be expected once Larnach’s batted ball data is reviewed; he’s been a heavy ground ball hitter at about 45% grounders. Fangraphs and BaseballSavant differ in the fly ball data with Fangraphs showing 35.4% vs. BaseballSavant’s 29.7%. Despite the relatively poor outcomes for Larnach, he does hit the ball fairly hard as advertised with an above average 90.0 mph exit velocity, and MLB average-ish 41.1% hard hit and 9.5% barrel rates according to Statcast metrics. Larnach’s reported launch angle should be a productive, but non-optimal 13.1* despite all the grounders. It’s also worth looking into his splits performance, since he is a lefty. In regard to that, he was utterly unplayable against LHP with a wRC+ of 44, but his performance against RHP isn’t truly good enough to justify a platoon role with a wRC+ of 109. It does provide some silver lining since southpaws throw less than 30% of innings at the MLB level. A step forward could make Larnach a platoon type player.
 
 
 All this brings us to plate discipline. Larnach’s solid enough 10.3% walk rate suggests he has a capable enough eye at the plate, but the 34.6% strikeout rate is well below MLB average so lets dig in here a bit. Warning… here’s where it goes off the rails. Larnach has a somewhat better than average O-swing% (swings outside the strike zone) which supports the argument for an MLB caliber eye at the plate shown in the chart.

However, the PitchFX and PitchInfo data from Fangraphs O-contact% rates at abysmal 38.2% and 32.9%, respectively. Expanding beyond the O-swing results shows Larnach is passive at the plate, swinging only 43.8% of the time (bottom 17.5%) with the 3rd worst contact rate among the 252 batters with 300+ plate appearances in MLB this year. Lending support to being passive at the plate, Larnach takes a called strike 18.1% of the time, which is more often than over 3/4 of other MLB batters. Honestly, it looks like Larnach is struggling to tell balls from strikes so he’s hoping for a walk or a meatball, but when he does swing, he often misjudges the pitch and winds up whiffing. In fact, whiffing more often than 96% of other MLB batters with 300+ plate appearances based on Fangraphs’ data. It’s bad. It’s real bad.

We know Larnach is struggling with pitch recognition based on the data, but is it a specific pitch or pitch category where he might be able to adjust his game to prevent being exposed? Unfortunately, no. Larnach crushes 4 seam fastballs, but he doesn’t really hit much else. The data from BaseballSavant shows he’s utterly outmatched by MLB secondary pitches in general.
  xBA xSLG xwOBA Whiff% Fastball .266 .515 .377 22.3 Breaking .155 .236 .260 55.0 Offspeed .158 .225 .192 54.0 Looking into Larnach’s run value by pitch on BaseballSavant shows Larnach cannot identify a changeup (18.4% of pitches), cannot handle sliders (19.0% of pitches) and also struggles greatly against sinkers (15.9% of pitches). Larnach has been a little better than MLB average against curveballs (11.3% of pitches), though. Essentially, don’t throw Larnach a 4 seamer or curveball and the opposing pitcher will probably be fine. It’s worth noting Fangraphs’ data from PitchFX and PitchInfo both back up BaseballSavant’s data. Comparing Larnach to other MLB hitters based on PitchFX data from Fangraphs, Larnach is in the bottom 5% for changeup and bottom 30% for the slider performance, but that’s a raw runs produced number without context of how many pitches he’s seen of each. Looking at BaseballSavant, Larnach is bottom 4% for changeup (7/175), 9% for slider (25/290) and 11% for sinker (25/245) per pitch seen, based on hitters with at least 50 plate appearances vs. those pitches. There are literally no pitches which Larnach produces positive value other than the 4 seam fastball… and maybe ever so slightly, the curveball depending on the source.
Defensively, Larnach’s speed is his limiting factor already at just age 24. Larnach’s sprint speed is 26.5ft/sec which is significantly below median for MLB or corner outfielders at 27.3 or 27.5ft/sec, respectively. That said, Larnach does accelerate to his top speed quickly and he’s been an average MLB route runner despite limited experience. This lives up to the scouting reports at draft day which said Larnach possesses good baseball instincts in the field to help make up for his disadvantage in speed. In addition, Larnach has arm strength which is graded above average which should help prevent base runners from confidently stretching their hits for another base or carelessly tagging to advance. Larnach is unlikely to ever be an average or plus defender on the field, but he may remain serviceable for a few years, especially with good positioning and a steady position to play.
Let’s summarize the good and bad here. On the good side of things, Larnach can clearly crush 4 seamers and was solid against curveballs despite his limited experience against high level pitching and loss of the 2020 season for development against full competition. Pitchers looking to get an out aren’t going to be able to do it with Larnach at the plate simply by throwing heat past him as he’ll catch up to it and make them pay and woe be the righty pitcher who with a 4 seamer and curveball as their bread and butter. When Larnach makes contact with his swings, he hits the ball a little better than the MLB average hitter with good exit velocity and he was able to accomplish those things despite having very little experience at the high MiLB level. Larnach’s instincts in the field are good, he makes the most of his physical abilities and the combination of skills and ability allow him to play corner outfield effectively enough so he’s not a glorified DH at this point in his career. Furthermore, Larnach was just getting a good taste of AA before the lost 2020 season and his call up to the MLB squad was potentially hastened by other player injuries, perhaps a bit earlier than the Twins wanted. With encouraging numbers from AA in 2019, the 2021 campaigns struggles may just be a bad season influenced by confidence issues and Larnach is still relatively young coming into his age 25 season next year. Finally, Larnach has plenty of MLB options left to give him room to take a step forward. Of course, that’s the optimistic view. On the not good side, Larnach is not particularly young for a prospect, either as he approaches the end point for prospect status at age 25, and while he did lose out on 2020 in terms of professional seasons, he was part of the Twins alternate site where he got a lot of valuable coaching time. Larnach was arguably more advanced than other college juniors when he was drafted because of his experience in the Cape Cod league which uses wooden bats and he was scouted as a polished bat who wouldn’t need much time to get up to MLB ready. He’s had some time now and his small, but somewhat  relevant sample size from his demotion to AAA wasn’t encouraging. There’s a big difference between AA and AAA when it comes to location and refinement of pitches, the polish, so to speak. There are a lot of players who can’t make that adjustment and given how poorly Larnach handled MLB pitches, it may not be a coincidence he wasn’t able to hit in AAA. In fact, Larnach was totally and completely outmatched by most pitches MLB pitchers throw and his track record, age, current swing and batted ball data don’t leave a lot of room for power projection so being the kind of hitter who can simply punish any mistake for a home run like Sano doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. 
Clearly, it would be foolish to write Trevor Larnach off at this point, but there's good reason to cool his stock dramatically. Let's hope he can make some adjustments to prove this data isn't the norm and he just had a bad season!
 

Time for the final update to my prospect rankings:

Any thoughts?

With the addition of several new prospects into the Twins' farm system, I've gone a bit overboard and expanded my prospect rankings to a total of 50 players now... enjoy!
Here is my new format:

 

 
We're pretty deep in the weeds here, so let me know what you think. Oh, and yes, I know, I'm really low on Chris Vallimont. I know.

Critique of a front office is easy to make in the midst of a deeply disappointing season. While many fans are languishing over the incoming July trade deadline, I've heard a lot of complaints about the lack of waiver claims made this season by the Minnesota Twins.
Why are the Twins continuing to trot out the likes of Colomé, Happ, and (formerly) Shoemaker, when the front office can claim replacement-level players from other teams for essentially nothing? 
The outright waiver transaction process is a deeply complicated one. Whenever a team wants to remove a player that is already on the 40-man roster, that player must first be offered to each of the other 29 major league teams. If another team claims that player, the player goes on that new team's 40-man roster. The full definition from MLB can be found here. 
Because I'm insane, and this season is awful, I decided to compile a list of every player that the Falvey/Levine front office has claimed from other organizations, in addition to players they've lost via waiver claims.
How have they fared in the waiver claim game?  Should they pick up the pace, now that they have nothing to lose? Do these claims actually amount to anything?
These questions are important... but so is the trip down memory lane, once you read some of these names. 
Players Acquired Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Claimed Position Team Claimed From fWAR in Minnesota 2/6/2017 Ehire Adrianza UTL IF San Francisco Giants 2.1 5/10/2017 Adam Wilk LHP New York Mets -0.2 6/7/2017 Chris Heston RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0 3/24/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 4/26/2018 David Hale RHP New York Yankees -0.2 5/28/2018 Taylor Motter UTL Seattle Mariners -0.3 8/3/2018 Johnny Field RF Cleveland Indians 0.1 8/3/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Cleveland Indians 0.2 10/31/2018 Michael Reed CF Atlanta Braves - 11/26/2018 C.J. Cron 1B Tampa Bay Rays 0.3 10/29/2019 Matt Wisler RHP Seattle Mariners 0.6 10/30/2020 Ian Gibault RHP Texas Rangers - 10/30/2020 Brandon Waddell  LHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.3 2/5/2021 Ian Hamilton RHP Philadelphia Phillies - 2/11/2021 Kyle Garlick RF Atlanta Braves 0.3 6/22/2021 Beau Burrows RHP Detroit Tigers -           Total fWAR 2.6 The Twins have claimed a total of 16 players from opposing organizations since Falvey/Levine took over after the 2016 World Series. Of these 16 claims, their most consequential claim was their very first one. Ehire Adrianza was never a star, but a very productive role player for a number of contending Twins teams. 

After that, the list isn't so impressive. Matt Wisler was great at slinging sliders in the bullpen during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but the Twins cut him last offseason in a puzzling move. C.J. Cron and the currently-injured Kyle Garlick have been the largest "successes" outside of Adrianza and Wisler, each account for 0.3 fWAR as right-handed hitters that were acquired to mash left-handed pitching. 
Most of these players did not remain on the 40-man roster for a long time. Quite a few were lost to waivers shortly after the Twins acquired them, which include Kenny Vargas, Johnny Field, Oliver Drake, and Brandon Waddell. Such is the life on the waiver wire for many MLB players. 
Players Lost Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Position Team Claimed By fWAR after Minnesota 11/18/2016 Adam Brett Walker LF Milwaukee Brewers - 8/26/2017 Tim Melville RHP San Diego Padres -0.2 9/14/2017 Engelb Vielma SS San Francisco Giants -0.1 11/3/2017 Randy Rosario LHP Chicago Cubs -0.3 11/3/2017 Daniel Palka OF Chicago White Sox -0.7 11/6/2017 Nik Turley LHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.2 1/22/2018 Buddy Boshers LHP Houston Astros 0.1 2/23/2018 JT Chargois RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.5 3/22/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 7/9/2018 Ryan LaMarre CF Chicago White Sox 0.4 10/10/2018 Juan Graterol C Cincinatti Reds -0.2 11/1/2018 Johnny Field RF Chicago Cubs - 11/1/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Tampa Bay Rays 0.4 1/11/2019 Aaron Slegers RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.4 5/26/2019 Austin Adams RHP Detroit Tigers -0.1 7/20/2019 Adalberto Mejia LHP Los Angeles Angels 0.0 8/14/2019 Ryan Eades RHP Baltimore Orioles -0.2 9/16/2019 Marcos Diplan RHP Detroit Tigers - 11/4/2019 Stephen Gonsalves LHP New York Mets - 9/5/2020 Ildemaro Vargas 2B Chicago Cubs -0.5 10/1/2020 Sean Poppen RHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.1 5/8/2021 Brandon Waddell LHP Baltimore Orioles 0 5/14/2021 Travis Blankenhorn 2B Los Angeles Dodgers -0.1 6/5/2021 Dakota Chalmers RHP Chicago Cubs - 6/18/2021 Shaun Anderson RHP Texas Rangers -           Total fWAR -0.5 You'll immediately notice this list of players lost via waivers during the Falvyey/Levine regime is a lot longer than the list of players they've acquired via waivers. All together, they have lost 25 players, which is 9 more players than they've claimed from other teams. 
The good news for the organization, is that this cumulative list has not come back to bite them. 10 of the 25 claimed players provided negative value for their new teams, after departing Minnesota. Daniel Palka's 2017 season really sunk this group, as he posted a -1.4 fWAR in only 93 plate appearances for the White Sox (after he provided 0.7 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ in 2018). 
The largest losses from this group have definitely been in the relief category, highlighted by JT Chargois, Oliver Drake, and Aaron Slegers. However, most of these players have had inconsistent careers, injuries, or both, in their time after playing for Minnesota. 
Even when factoring in some bullpen pieces this organization might regret losing, the total fWAR from these players after departing the Twins is -0.5 fWAR. The current front office has been right far more than wrong, when deciding how to churn the 40-man roster. 
Yearly Trends And Overall Takeaway
Year Players Claimed From Other Teams Players Claimed By Other Teams 2016/2017 3 6 2018 7 7 2019 1 6 2020 2 2 2021 3 4 Total Players 16 25       Total fWAR 2.6 -0.5 fWAR Difference   3.1 Overall, the Twins have gained 3.1 fWAR from their decisions to gain and lose players from the waiver wire. That's a pretty decent result for a type of front office transaction that is often overlooked. It averages out to about 0.69 fWAR per season, factoring in the 4.5 seasons of the Falvey/Levine regime. 
Most of that waiver activity came in 2017 and 2018, when the front office was still adjusting to their inherited players from the previous front office. Successful teams don't always gamble roster spots on players exposed to outright waivers, which is evident in the 2019 team. 
One major caveat to point out across the yearly trend is that teams were probably hesitant to claim players from other organizations during the COVID-19 pandemic, so 2020 and early 2021 should be viewed through that lens.
However, that didn't stop the Twins from claiming 3 bullpen arms (Ian Gibault, Brandon Waddell, and Ian Hamilton), and Kyle Garlick this offseason. The jury is still out on these claims, but Waddell did not go well. 
The most interesting thing about 2021 is that the Twins lost 4 players during their early season free-fall (Brandon Waddell, Travis Blankenhorn, Dakota Chalmers, and Shaun Anderson), before claiming Beau Burrows a few weeks ago from the Detroit Tigers.
Is former first-round draft pick Beau Burrows the tip of the iceberg? Now that 2021 is officially kaput, will the front office be more aggressive? 
I sure hope so. Moves will be made in the next few weeks, and this 40-man roster will be significantly different as we approach the trade deadline. The 40-man roster will likely be smaller, and the Twins will be in front of the line when contenders have to cut players to account for their deadline additions. 
Waiver claims are rarely sexy transactions, but sometimes you stumble into a Ehire Adrianza or a Matt Wisler. The Twins have proven to be more successful than not when it comes to their waiver claim game. It's time to play, because there's simply nothing to lose. 

Continuing from my Top 30 Prospect Rankings in the winter, I have updated my standings in accordance to how well things have gone for the individual players. I'll try to keep this brief, but I can promise nothing!
Format
#Num - Pos Player (Winter Rating)
Current Level - Quick Summary
Graduated
#1 OF Trevor Larnach
#2 C Ryan Jeffers
#3 OF Alex Kirilloff
DFA'd
#18 2B Travis Blankenhorn
#35 SP Dakota Chalmers
 
Top 30 Prospects
#30 - 2B Edouard Julien (Not Ranked)
A - A former 18th round pick, Julien is raking at Fort Myers. Has a long way to go, but he's on my radar now.
|
|
#29 - CF Gabriel Maciel (#24)
A+ - Maciel got off to a rough start and has shown zero pop in his bat. He profiles as a Ben Revere type.
|
|
#28 - 3B Seth Gray (#32)
A+ - Gray has shown improvement at the plate and has a high .368 OBP. Part of that is because of 9 HBPs (hit by pitches).
|
|
#27 - 2B Will Holland (#26)
A - Got a late start and has been a bit shaky in a small sample size.
|
|
#26 - SP Luis Rijo (#23)
A+ - Got a late start, pitched in one game, and hit the IL with a forearm strain. This reeks of a lost season.
|
|
#25 - SS Jermaine Palacios (NR)
AA - Palacios is quite the story. He was the only prospect in the Odorizzi trade with the Rays, but he completely flopped in AA Montgomery. He signed back with the Twins in free agency and is hitting up a storm (.850 OPS with great OBP and some power) and he already profiles well as a defender. He always had a high ceiling, which earns him a spot in the top 30.
|
|
#24 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (#29)
Not playing yet.
|
|
#23 - OF Alerick Soularie (#28)
Not playing yet / injured.
|
|
#22 - RP Yennier Cano (NR)
AAA - Cano crushed AA with a 13.7 K/9 ratio and doesn't hand out too many walks. The 27 year old Cuban is now pitching at AAA and should debut in August/September for the Twins as a reliever.
|
|
#21 - RP Edwar Colina (#15)
On the 60 day IL after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. Still the organization's best reliever prospect, Colina missing a year of development is awful for both him and the Twins.
|
|
#20 - C Ben Rortvedt (#20)
MLB - He's filling in as the backup catcher, and as I speculated before, he's a strong defender who can't hit. He'll do better than .140, but he's always going to be a liability at the plate.
|
|
#19 - SS Danny De Andrade (#25)
Not playing yet
|
|
#18 - 2B/CF Nick Gordon (#22)
MLB - Gordon went from potential DFA candidate to a quality bench player. Even with almost 2 years off, his swing looks good and his speed gives him SB opportunities and can fill in as a CF. This is likely his ceiling, though.
|
|
#17 - SS Wander Javier (#19)
AA - Javier is looking better at the plate, but is still only hitting .692 OPS. His future may be as a backup SS who can field better than most, but can't hit.
|
|
#16 - 2B Spencer Steer (#21)
A+ - Steer is absolutely raking at Cedar Rapids with a .915 OPS, 10 HRs, and .405 OBP. He may earn a late promotion to AA and has potential to climb higher if he keeps hitting.
|
|
#15 - SP Blayne Enlow (#16)
A+ - Looked great in 3 starts, but then needed Tommy John surgery. The first of a bundle of quality starting pitcher prospects, this injury sets him back at least a year.
|
|
#14 - 1B/DH Brent Rooker (#7)
AAA - Rooker plummets down the rankings after looking terrible in his short MLB stint and getting passed up by the likes of Garlick, Refsnyder, Gordon (for MLB ABs, not outfield play). He's hit well in St. Paul (.925 OPS 11 HRs), but he turns 27 soon, and if he can't hit MLB pitching, he has no place on any roster.
|
|
#13 - CF Misael Urbina (#14)
A - Urbina has struggled at Fort Myers, but he's only 19. It's too early to be concerned.
|
|
#12 - 3B Keoni Cavaco (#13)
A - Cavaco is hitting better, though with no power and too many Ks. At just 20, he has a long ways to go.
|
|
#11 - SP Bailey Ober (#33)
MLB - Ober takes a massive leap up as I originally projected him as a reliever. He's looked better than expected in the Twins' rotation, and while he has been hittable and given a strict inning limit, he's been able to strike out some of the league's best hitters. If he get more innings under his belt, he could solidify himself as a decent MLB starter.
|
|
#10 - SP Josh Winder (#27)
AA - I initially rated Winder too low, as he's now dominating AA with a WHIP under 1.0, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 innings per start. At this rate he will be able to graduate in 2022 and he profiles as a mid-rotation starter, not just a back-end guy.
|
|
#9 - 1B Aaron Sabato (#9)
A - Many thought Sabato might start at A+, but instead he starts at the bottom and he's been bad at the plate. A 33 K% in the minors is a big red flag. It is early, but like Rooker you have to wonder if his power-first approach will sink him at the plate.
|
|
#8 - CF Gilberto Celestino (#10)
MLB - Celestino went from AA to MLB in the span of two days, and unsurprisingly looked shaky at the plate. He needs more time to work on his bat, but 2022 will be his final option year (had to be protected from Rule 5 draft). It'd be nice to use Celestino as a Buxton substitute.
|
|
#7 - SP Cole Sands (#12)
AA - Like Winder, Sands looked very good at AA, albeit with a few too many walks. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with an undisclosed injury.
|
|
#6 - OF/1B Matt Wallner (#8)
A+ - Wallner was hitting at a ridiculous 1.005 OPS (.333/.384) before hitting the IL with a hamate bone injury. He did have a 38% K rate in that small sample size.
|
|
#5 - 3B Jose Miranda (#17)
AA - I mentioned last time that Miranda needed to take a big step forward, and that's exactly what he did. With an insane 1.0006 OPS (.348/.415), 12 HRs, and a microscopic 10% K rate, Miranda looks like the real deal despite his struggles in the lower minors. It's fair to debate if he can stay at 3B full-time, but his bat looks like it has MLB staying power.
|
|
#4 - SP Matt Canterino (#11)
A+ - Canterino looked flat-out unhittable until hitting the IL with elbow issues. Hope for the best, everyone.
|
|
#3 - SP Jhoan Duran (#5)
AAA - Duran has struggled with injuries and command so far, and has now been shut down with an elbow problem. This is looking like a lost season.
|
|
#2 - SP Jordan Balazovic (#6)
AA - After missing time with a back problem, Balazovic is ramping up and has been a bit shaky. He has nasty stuff, but needs to get more innings under his belt.
|
|
#1 - SS/CF Royce Lewis (#4)
Torn ACL - With my top three graduated, Lewis took over the top spot, but of course blew his ACL in Spring Training. He should be ready for the 2022 season where he will likely start in AAA. 
 

Rule 5 Eligible Prospects for Winter 2021:
Royce Lewis
Jermaine Palacios
Jose Miranda
Josh Winder
Cole Sands
Wander Javier
Gabriel Maciel
Blayne Enlow

Continuing from my Top 30 Prospect Rankings in the winter, I have updated my standings in accordance to how well things have gone for the individual players. I'll try to keep this brief, but I can promise nothing!
Format
#Num - Pos Player (Winter Rating)
Current Level - Quick Summary
Graduated
#1 OF Trevor Larnach
#2 C Ryan Jeffers
#3 OF Alex Kirilloff
DFA'd
#18 2B Travis Blankenhorn
#35 SP Dakota Chalmers
 
Top 30 Prospects
#30 - 2B Edouard Julien (Not Ranked)
A - A former 18th round pick, Julien is raking at Fort Myers. Has a long way to go, but he's on my radar now.
|
|
#29 - CF Gabriel Maciel (#24)
A+ - Maciel got off to a rough start and has shown zero pop in his bat. He profiles as a Ben Revere type.
|
|
#28 - 3B Seth Gray (#32)
A+ - Gray has shown improvement at the plate and has a high .368 OBP. Part of that is because of 9 HBPs (hit by pitches).
|
|
#27 - 2B Will Holland (#26)
A - Got a late start and has been a bit shaky in a small sample size.
|
|
#26 - SP Luis Rijo (#23)
A+ - Got a late start, pitched in one game, and hit the IL with a forearm strain. This reeks of a lost season.
|
|
#25 - SS Jermaine Palacios (NR)
AA - Palacios is quite the story. He was the only prospect in the Odorizzi trade with the Rays, but he completely flopped in AA Montgomery. He signed back with the Twins in free agency and is hitting up a storm (.850 OPS with great OBP and some power) and he already profiles well as a defender. He always had a high ceiling, which earns him a spot in the top 30.
|
|
#24 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (#29)
Not playing yet.
|
|
#23 - OF Alerick Soularie (#28)
Not playing yet / injured.
|
|
#22 - RP Yennier Cano (NR)
AAA - Cano crushed AA with a 13.7 K/9 ratio and doesn't hand out too many walks. The 27 year old Cuban is now pitching at AAA and should debut in August/September for the Twins as a reliever.
|
|
#21 - RP Edwar Colina (#15)
On the 60 day IL after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. Still the organization's best reliever prospect, Colina missing a year of development is awful for both him and the Twins.
|
|
#20 - C Ben Rortvedt (#20)
MLB - He's filling in as the backup catcher, and as I speculated before, he's a strong defender who can't hit. He'll do better than .140, but he's always going to be a liability at the plate.
|
|
#19 - SS Danny De Andrade (#25)
Not playing yet
|
|
#18 - 2B/CF Nick Gordon (#22)
MLB - Gordon went from potential DFA candidate to a quality bench player. Even with almost 2 years off, his swing looks good and his speed gives him SB opportunities and can fill in as a CF. This is likely his ceiling, though.
|
|
#17 - SS Wander Javier (#19)
AA - Javier is looking better at the plate, but is still only hitting .692 OPS. His future may be as a backup SS who can field better than most, but can't hit.
|
|
#16 - 2B Spencer Steer (#21)
A+ - Steer is absolutely raking at Cedar Rapids with a .915 OPS, 10 HRs, and .405 OBP. He may earn a late promotion to AA and has potential to climb higher if he keeps hitting.
|
|
#15 - SP Blayne Enlow (#16)
A+ - Looked great in 3 starts, but then needed Tommy John surgery. The first of a bundle of quality starting pitcher prospects, this injury sets him back at least a year.
|
|
#14 - 1B/DH Brent Rooker (#7)
AAA - Rooker plummets down the rankings after looking terrible in his short MLB stint and getting passed up by the likes of Garlick, Refsnyder, Gordon (for MLB ABs, not outfield play). He's hit well in St. Paul (.925 OPS 11 HRs), but he turns 27 soon, and if he can't hit MLB pitching, he has no place on any roster.
|
|
#13 - CF Misael Urbina (#14)
A - Urbina has struggled at Fort Myers, but he's only 19. It's too early to be concerned.
|
|
#12 - 3B Keoni Cavaco (#13)
A - Cavaco is hitting better, though with no power and too many Ks. At just 20, he has a long ways to go.
|
|
#11 - SP Bailey Ober (#33)
MLB - Ober takes a massive leap up as I originally projected him as a reliever. He's looked better than expected in the Twins' rotation, and while he has been hittable and given a strict inning limit, he's been able to strike out some of the league's best hitters. If he get more innings under his belt, he could solidify himself as a decent MLB starter.
|
|
#10 - SP Josh Winder (#27)
AA - I initially rated Winder too low, as he's now dominating AA with a WHIP under 1.0, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 innings per start. At this rate he will be able to graduate in 2022 and he profiles as a mid-rotation starter, not just a back-end guy.
|
|
#9 - 1B Aaron Sabato (#9)
A - Many thought Sabato might start at A+, but instead he starts at the bottom and he's been bad at the plate. A 33 K% in the minors is a big red flag. It is early, but like Rooker you have to wonder if his power-first approach will sink him at the plate.
|
|
#8 - CF Gilberto Celestino (#10)
MLB - Celestino went from AA to MLB in the span of two days, and unsurprisingly looked shaky at the plate. He needs more time to work on his bat, but 2022 will be his final option year (had to be protected from Rule 5 draft). It'd be nice to use Celestino as a Buxton substitute.
|
|
#7 - SP Cole Sands (#12)
AA - Like Winder, Sands looked very good at AA, albeit with a few too many walks. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with an undisclosed injury.
|
|
#6 - OF/1B Matt Wallner (#8)
A+ - Wallner was hitting at a ridiculous 1.005 OPS (.333/.384) before hitting the IL with a hamate bone injury. He did have a 38% K rate in that small sample size.
|
|
#5 - 3B Jose Miranda (#17)
AA - I mentioned last time that Miranda needed to take a big step forward, and that's exactly what he did. With an insane 1.0006 OPS (.348/.415), 12 HRs, and a microscopic 10% K rate, Miranda looks like the real deal despite his struggles in the lower minors. It's fair to debate if he can stay at 3B full-time, but his bat looks like it has MLB staying power.
|
|
#4 - SP Matt Canterino (#11)
A+ - Canterino looked flat-out unhittable until hitting the IL with elbow issues. Hope for the best, everyone.
|
|
#3 - SP Jhoan Duran (#5)
AAA - Duran has struggled with injuries and command so far, and has now been shut down with an elbow problem. This is looking like a lost season.
|
|
#2 - SP Jordan Balazovic (#6)
AA - After missing time with a back problem, Balazovic is ramping up and has been a bit shaky. He has nasty stuff, but needs to get more innings under his belt.
|
|
#1 - SS/CF Royce Lewis (#4)
Torn ACL - With my top three graduated, Lewis took over the top spot, but of course blew his ACL in Spring Training. He should be ready for the 2022 season where he will likely start in AAA. 
 

Rule 5 Eligible Prospects for Winter 2021:
Royce Lewis
Jermaine Palacios
Jose Miranda
Josh Winder
Cole Sands
Wander Javier
Gabriel Maciel
Blayne Enlow

Continuing from my Top 30 Prospect Rankings in the winter, I have updated my standings in accordance to how well things have gone for the individual players. I'll try to keep this brief, but I can promise nothing!
Format
#Num - Pos Player (Winter Rating)
Current Level - Quick Summary
Graduated
#1 OF Trevor Larnach
#2 C Ryan Jeffers
#3 OF Alex Kirilloff
DFA'd
#18 2B Travis Blankenhorn
#35 SP Dakota Chalmers
 
Top 30 Prospects
#30 - 2B Edouard Julien (Not Ranked)
A - A former 18th round pick, Julien is raking at Fort Myers. Has a long way to go, but he's on my radar now.
|
|
#29 - CF Gabriel Maciel (#24)
A+ - Maciel got off to a rough start and has shown zero pop in his bat. He profiles as a Ben Revere type.
|
|
#28 - 3B Seth Gray (#32)
A+ - Gray has shown improvement at the plate and has a high .368 OBP. Part of that is because of 9 HBPs (hit by pitches).
|
|
#27 - 2B Will Holland (#26)
A - Got a late start and has been a bit shaky in a small sample size.
|
|
#26 - SP Luis Rijo (#23)
A+ - Got a late start, pitched in one game, and hit the IL with a forearm strain. This reeks of a lost season.
|
|
#25 - SS Jermaine Palacios (NR)
AA - Palacios is quite the story. He was the only prospect in the Odorizzi trade with the Rays, but he completely flopped in AA Montgomery. He signed back with the Twins in free agency and is hitting up a storm (.850 OPS with great OBP and some power) and he already profiles well as a defender. He always had a high ceiling, which earns him a spot in the top 30.
|
|
#24 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (#29)
Not playing yet.
|
|
#23 - OF Alerick Soularie (#28)
Not playing yet / injured.
|
|
#22 - RP Yennier Cano (NR)
AAA - Cano crushed AA with a 13.7 K/9 ratio and doesn't hand out too many walks. The 27 year old Cuban is now pitching at AAA and should debut in August/September for the Twins as a reliever.
|
|
#21 - RP Edwar Colina (#15)
On the 60 day IL after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. Still the organization's best reliever prospect, Colina missing a year of development is awful for both him and the Twins.
|
|
#20 - C Ben Rortvedt (#20)
MLB - He's filling in as the backup catcher, and as I speculated before, he's a strong defender who can't hit. He'll do better than .140, but he's always going to be a liability at the plate.
|
|
#19 - SS Danny De Andrade (#25)
Not playing yet
|
|
#18 - 2B/CF Nick Gordon (#22)
MLB - Gordon went from potential DFA candidate to a quality bench player. Even with almost 2 years off, his swing looks good and his speed gives him SB opportunities and can fill in as a CF. This is likely his ceiling, though.
|
|
#17 - SS Wander Javier (#19)
AA - Javier is looking better at the plate, but is still only hitting .692 OPS. His future may be as a backup SS who can field better than most, but can't hit.
|
|
#16 - 2B Spencer Steer (#21)
A+ - Steer is absolutely raking at Cedar Rapids with a .915 OPS, 10 HRs, and .405 OBP. He may earn a late promotion to AA and has potential to climb higher if he keeps hitting.
|
|
#15 - SP Blayne Enlow (#16)
A+ - Looked great in 3 starts, but then needed Tommy John surgery. The first of a bundle of quality starting pitcher prospects, this injury sets him back at least a year.
|
|
#14 - 1B/DH Brent Rooker (#7)
AAA - Rooker plummets down the rankings after looking terrible in his short MLB stint and getting passed up by the likes of Garlick, Refsnyder, Gordon (for MLB ABs, not outfield play). He's hit well in St. Paul (.925 OPS 11 HRs), but he turns 27 soon, and if he can't hit MLB pitching, he has no place on any roster.
|
|
#13 - CF Misael Urbina (#14)
A - Urbina has struggled at Fort Myers, but he's only 19. It's too early to be concerned.
|
|
#12 - 3B Keoni Cavaco (#13)
A - Cavaco is hitting better, though with no power and too many Ks. At just 20, he has a long ways to go.
|
|
#11 - SP Bailey Ober (#33)
MLB - Ober takes a massive leap up as I originally projected him as a reliever. He's looked better than expected in the Twins' rotation, and while he has been hittable and given a strict inning limit, he's been able to strike out some of the league's best hitters. If he get more innings under his belt, he could solidify himself as a decent MLB starter.
|
|
#10 - SP Josh Winder (#27)
AA - I initially rated Winder too low, as he's now dominating AA with a WHIP under 1.0, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 innings per start. At this rate he will be able to graduate in 2022 and he profiles as a mid-rotation starter, not just a back-end guy.
|
|
#9 - 1B Aaron Sabato (#9)
A - Many thought Sabato might start at A+, but instead he starts at the bottom and he's been bad at the plate. A 33 K% in the minors is a big red flag. It is early, but like Rooker you have to wonder if his power-first approach will sink him at the plate.
|
|
#8 - CF Gilberto Celestino (#10)
MLB - Celestino went from AA to MLB in the span of two days, and unsurprisingly looked shaky at the plate. He needs more time to work on his bat, but 2022 will be his final option year (had to be protected from Rule 5 draft). It'd be nice to use Celestino as a Buxton substitute.
|
|
#7 - SP Cole Sands (#12)
AA - Like Winder, Sands looked very good at AA, albeit with a few too many walks. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with an undisclosed injury.
|
|
#6 - OF/1B Matt Wallner (#8)
A+ - Wallner was hitting at a ridiculous 1.005 OPS (.333/.384) before hitting the IL with a hamate bone injury. He did have a 38% K rate in that small sample size.
|
|
#5 - 3B Jose Miranda (#17)
AA - I mentioned last time that Miranda needed to take a big step forward, and that's exactly what he did. With an insane 1.0006 OPS (.348/.415), 12 HRs, and a microscopic 10% K rate, Miranda looks like the real deal despite his struggles in the lower minors. It's fair to debate if he can stay at 3B full-time, but his bat looks like it has MLB staying power.
|
|
#4 - SP Matt Canterino (#11)
A+ - Canterino looked flat-out unhittable until hitting the IL with elbow issues. Hope for the best, everyone.
|
|
#3 - SP Jhoan Duran (#5)
AAA - Duran has struggled with injuries and command so far, and has now been shut down with an elbow problem. This is looking like a lost season.
|
|
#2 - SP Jordan Balazovic (#6)
AA - After missing time with a back problem, Balazovic is ramping up and has been a bit shaky. He has nasty stuff, but needs to get more innings under his belt.
|
|
#1 - SS/CF Royce Lewis (#4)
Torn ACL - With my top three graduated, Lewis took over the top spot, but of course blew his ACL in Spring Training. He should be ready for the 2022 season where he will likely start in AAA. 
 

Rule 5 Eligible Prospects for Winter 2021:
Royce Lewis
Jermaine Palacios
Jose Miranda
Josh Winder
Cole Sands
Wander Javier
Gabriel Maciel
Blayne Enlow

Continuing from my Top 30 Prospect Rankings in the winter, I have updated my standings in accordance to how well things have gone for the individual players. I'll try to keep this brief, but I can promise nothing!
Format
#Num - Pos Player (Winter Rating)
Current Level - Quick Summary
Graduated
#1 OF Trevor Larnach
#2 C Ryan Jeffers
#3 OF Alex Kirilloff
DFA'd
#18 2B Travis Blankenhorn
#35 SP Dakota Chalmers
 
Top 30 Prospects
#30 - 2B Edouard Julien (Not Ranked)
A - A former 18th round pick, Julien is raking at Fort Myers. Has a long way to go, but he's on my radar now.
|
|
#29 - CF Gabriel Maciel (#24)
A+ - Maciel got off to a rough start and has shown zero pop in his bat. He profiles as a Ben Revere type.
|
|
#28 - 3B Seth Gray (#32)
A+ - Gray has shown improvement at the plate and has a high .368 OBP. Part of that is because of 9 HBPs (hit by pitches).
|
|
#27 - 2B Will Holland (#26)
A - Got a late start and has been a bit shaky in a small sample size.
|
|
#26 - SP Luis Rijo (#23)
A+ - Got a late start, pitched in one game, and hit the IL with a forearm strain. This reeks of a lost season.
|
|
#25 - SS Jermaine Palacios (NR)
AA - Palacios is quite the story. He was the only prospect in the Odorizzi trade with the Rays, but he completely flopped in AA Montgomery. He signed back with the Twins in free agency and is hitting up a storm (.850 OPS with great OBP and some power) and he already profiles well as a defender. He always had a high ceiling, which earns him a spot in the top 30.
|
|
#24 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (#29)
Not playing yet.
|
|
#23 - OF Alerick Soularie (#28)
Not playing yet / injured.
|
|
#22 - RP Yennier Cano (NR)
AAA - Cano crushed AA with a 13.7 K/9 ratio and doesn't hand out too many walks. The 27 year old Cuban is now pitching at AAA and should debut in August/September for the Twins as a reliever.
|
|
#21 - RP Edwar Colina (#15)
On the 60 day IL after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. Still the organization's best reliever prospect, Colina missing a year of development is awful for both him and the Twins.
|
|
#20 - C Ben Rortvedt (#20)
MLB - He's filling in as the backup catcher, and as I speculated before, he's a strong defender who can't hit. He'll do better than .140, but he's always going to be a liability at the plate.
|
|
#19 - SS Danny De Andrade (#25)
Not playing yet
|
|
#18 - 2B/CF Nick Gordon (#22)
MLB - Gordon went from potential DFA candidate to a quality bench player. Even with almost 2 years off, his swing looks good and his speed gives him SB opportunities and can fill in as a CF. This is likely his ceiling, though.
|
|
#17 - SS Wander Javier (#19)
AA - Javier is looking better at the plate, but is still only hitting .692 OPS. His future may be as a backup SS who can field better than most, but can't hit.
|
|
#16 - 2B Spencer Steer (#21)
A+ - Steer is absolutely raking at Cedar Rapids with a .915 OPS, 10 HRs, and .405 OBP. He may earn a late promotion to AA and has potential to climb higher if he keeps hitting.
|
|
#15 - SP Blayne Enlow (#16)
A+ - Looked great in 3 starts, but then needed Tommy John surgery. The first of a bundle of quality starting pitcher prospects, this injury sets him back at least a year.
|
|
#14 - 1B/DH Brent Rooker (#7)
AAA - Rooker plummets down the rankings after looking terrible in his short MLB stint and getting passed up by the likes of Garlick, Refsnyder, Gordon (for MLB ABs, not outfield play). He's hit well in St. Paul (.925 OPS 11 HRs), but he turns 27 soon, and if he can't hit MLB pitching, he has no place on any roster.
|
|
#13 - CF Misael Urbina (#14)
A - Urbina has struggled at Fort Myers, but he's only 19. It's too early to be concerned.
|
|
#12 - 3B Keoni Cavaco (#13)
A - Cavaco is hitting better, though with no power and too many Ks. At just 20, he has a long ways to go.
|
|
#11 - SP Bailey Ober (#33)
MLB - Ober takes a massive leap up as I originally projected him as a reliever. He's looked better than expected in the Twins' rotation, and while he has been hittable and given a strict inning limit, he's been able to strike out some of the league's best hitters. If he get more innings under his belt, he could solidify himself as a decent MLB starter.
|
|
#10 - SP Josh Winder (#27)
AA - I initially rated Winder too low, as he's now dominating AA with a WHIP under 1.0, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 innings per start. At this rate he will be able to graduate in 2022 and he profiles as a mid-rotation starter, not just a back-end guy.
|
|
#9 - 1B Aaron Sabato (#9)
A - Many thought Sabato might start at A+, but instead he starts at the bottom and he's been bad at the plate. A 33 K% in the minors is a big red flag. It is early, but like Rooker you have to wonder if his power-first approach will sink him at the plate.
|
|
#8 - CF Gilberto Celestino (#10)
MLB - Celestino went from AA to MLB in the span of two days, and unsurprisingly looked shaky at the plate. He needs more time to work on his bat, but 2022 will be his final option year (had to be protected from Rule 5 draft). It'd be nice to use Celestino as a Buxton substitute.
|
|
#7 - SP Cole Sands (#12)
AA - Like Winder, Sands looked very good at AA, albeit with a few too many walks. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with an undisclosed injury.
|
|
#6 - OF/1B Matt Wallner (#8)
A+ - Wallner was hitting at a ridiculous 1.005 OPS (.333/.384) before hitting the IL with a hamate bone injury. He did have a 38% K rate in that small sample size.
|
|
#5 - 3B Jose Miranda (#17)
AA - I mentioned last time that Miranda needed to take a big step forward, and that's exactly what he did. With an insane 1.0006 OPS (.348/.415), 12 HRs, and a microscopic 10% K rate, Miranda looks like the real deal despite his struggles in the lower minors. It's fair to debate if he can stay at 3B full-time, but his bat looks like it has MLB staying power.
|
|
#4 - SP Matt Canterino (#11)
A+ - Canterino looked flat-out unhittable until hitting the IL with elbow issues. Hope for the best, everyone.
|
|
#3 - SP Jhoan Duran (#5)
AAA - Duran has struggled with injuries and command so far, and has now been shut down with an elbow problem. This is looking like a lost season.
|
|
#2 - SP Jordan Balazovic (#6)
AA - After missing time with a back problem, Balazovic is ramping up and has been a bit shaky. He has nasty stuff, but needs to get more innings under his belt.
|
|
#1 - SS/CF Royce Lewis (#4)
Torn ACL - With my top three graduated, Lewis took over the top spot, but of course blew his ACL in Spring Training. He should be ready for the 2022 season where he will likely start in AAA. 
 

Rule 5 Eligible Prospects for Winter 2021:
Royce Lewis
Jermaine Palacios
Jose Miranda
Josh Winder
Cole Sands
Wander Javier
Gabriel Maciel
Blayne Enlow

Continuing from my Top 30 Prospect Rankings in the winter, I have updated my standings in accordance to how well things have gone for the individual players. I'll try to keep this brief, but I can promise nothing!
Format
#Num - Pos Player (Winter Rating)
Current Level - Quick Summary
Graduated
#1 OF Trevor Larnach
#2 C Ryan Jeffers
#3 OF Alex Kirilloff
DFA'd
#18 2B Travis Blankenhorn
#35 SP Dakota Chalmers
 
Top 30 Prospects
#30 - 2B Edouard Julien (Not Ranked)
A - A former 18th round pick, Julien is raking at Fort Myers. Has a long way to go, but he's on my radar now.
|
|
#29 - CF Gabriel Maciel (#24)
A+ - Maciel got off to a rough start and has shown zero pop in his bat. He profiles as a Ben Revere type.
|
|
#28 - 3B Seth Gray (#32)
A+ - Gray has shown improvement at the plate and has a high .368 OBP. Part of that is because of 9 HBPs (hit by pitches).
|
|
#27 - 2B Will Holland (#26)
A - Got a late start and has been a bit shaky in a small sample size.
|
|
#26 - SP Luis Rijo (#23)
A+ - Got a late start, pitched in one game, and hit the IL with a forearm strain. This reeks of a lost season.
|
|
#25 - SS Jermaine Palacios (NR)
AA - Palacios is quite the story. He was the only prospect in the Odorizzi trade with the Rays, but he completely flopped in AA Montgomery. He signed back with the Twins in free agency and is hitting up a storm (.850 OPS with great OBP and some power) and he already profiles well as a defender. He always had a high ceiling, which earns him a spot in the top 30.
|
|
#24 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (#29)
Not playing yet.
|
|
#23 - OF Alerick Soularie (#28)
Not playing yet / injured.
|
|
#22 - RP Yennier Cano (NR)
AAA - Cano crushed AA with a 13.7 K/9 ratio and doesn't hand out too many walks. The 27 year old Cuban is now pitching at AAA and should debut in August/September for the Twins as a reliever.
|
|
#21 - RP Edwar Colina (#15)
On the 60 day IL after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. Still the organization's best reliever prospect, Colina missing a year of development is awful for both him and the Twins.
|
|
#20 - C Ben Rortvedt (#20)
MLB - He's filling in as the backup catcher, and as I speculated before, he's a strong defender who can't hit. He'll do better than .140, but he's always going to be a liability at the plate.
|
|
#19 - SS Danny De Andrade (#25)
Not playing yet
|
|
#18 - 2B/CF Nick Gordon (#22)
MLB - Gordon went from potential DFA candidate to a quality bench player. Even with almost 2 years off, his swing looks good and his speed gives him SB opportunities and can fill in as a CF. This is likely his ceiling, though.
|
|
#17 - SS Wander Javier (#19)
AA - Javier is looking better at the plate, but is still only hitting .692 OPS. His future may be as a backup SS who can field better than most, but can't hit.
|
|
#16 - 2B Spencer Steer (#21)
A+ - Steer is absolutely raking at Cedar Rapids with a .915 OPS, 10 HRs, and .405 OBP. He may earn a late promotion to AA and has potential to climb higher if he keeps hitting.
|
|
#15 - SP Blayne Enlow (#16)
A+ - Looked great in 3 starts, but then needed Tommy John surgery. The first of a bundle of quality starting pitcher prospects, this injury sets him back at least a year.
|
|
#14 - 1B/DH Brent Rooker (#7)
AAA - Rooker plummets down the rankings after looking terrible in his short MLB stint and getting passed up by the likes of Garlick, Refsnyder, Gordon (for MLB ABs, not outfield play). He's hit well in St. Paul (.925 OPS 11 HRs), but he turns 27 soon, and if he can't hit MLB pitching, he has no place on any roster.
|
|
#13 - CF Misael Urbina (#14)
A - Urbina has struggled at Fort Myers, but he's only 19. It's too early to be concerned.
|
|
#12 - 3B Keoni Cavaco (#13)
A - Cavaco is hitting better, though with no power and too many Ks. At just 20, he has a long ways to go.
|
|
#11 - SP Bailey Ober (#33)
MLB - Ober takes a massive leap up as I originally projected him as a reliever. He's looked better than expected in the Twins' rotation, and while he has been hittable and given a strict inning limit, he's been able to strike out some of the league's best hitters. If he get more innings under his belt, he could solidify himself as a decent MLB starter.
|
|
#10 - SP Josh Winder (#27)
AA - I initially rated Winder too low, as he's now dominating AA with a WHIP under 1.0, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 innings per start. At this rate he will be able to graduate in 2022 and he profiles as a mid-rotation starter, not just a back-end guy.
|
|
#9 - 1B Aaron Sabato (#9)
A - Many thought Sabato might start at A+, but instead he starts at the bottom and he's been bad at the plate. A 33 K% in the minors is a big red flag. It is early, but like Rooker you have to wonder if his power-first approach will sink him at the plate.
|
|
#8 - CF Gilberto Celestino (#10)
MLB - Celestino went from AA to MLB in the span of two days, and unsurprisingly looked shaky at the plate. He needs more time to work on his bat, but 2022 will be his final option year (had to be protected from Rule 5 draft). It'd be nice to use Celestino as a Buxton substitute.
|
|
#7 - SP Cole Sands (#12)
AA - Like Winder, Sands looked very good at AA, albeit with a few too many walks. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with an undisclosed injury.
|
|
#6 - OF/1B Matt Wallner (#8)
A+ - Wallner was hitting at a ridiculous 1.005 OPS (.333/.384) before hitting the IL with a hamate bone injury. He did have a 38% K rate in that small sample size.
|
|
#5 - 3B Jose Miranda (#17)
AA - I mentioned last time that Miranda needed to take a big step forward, and that's exactly what he did. With an insane 1.0006 OPS (.348/.415), 12 HRs, and a microscopic 10% K rate, Miranda looks like the real deal despite his struggles in the lower minors. It's fair to debate if he can stay at 3B full-time, but his bat looks like it has MLB staying power.
|
|
#4 - SP Matt Canterino (#11)
A+ - Canterino looked flat-out unhittable until hitting the IL with elbow issues. Hope for the best, everyone.
|
|
#3 - SP Jhoan Duran (#5)
AAA - Duran has struggled with injuries and command so far, and has now been shut down with an elbow problem. This is looking like a lost season.
|
|
#2 - SP Jordan Balazovic (#6)
AA - After missing time with a back problem, Balazovic is ramping up and has been a bit shaky. He has nasty stuff, but needs to get more innings under his belt.
|
|
#1 - SS/CF Royce Lewis (#4)
Torn ACL - With my top three graduated, Lewis took over the top spot, but of course blew his ACL in Spring Training. He should be ready for the 2022 season where he will likely start in AAA. 
 

Rule 5 Eligible Prospects for Winter 2021:
Royce Lewis
Jermaine Palacios
Jose Miranda
Josh Winder
Cole Sands
Wander Javier
Gabriel Maciel
Blayne Enlow

Alex Kirilloff was the Twins first round draft pick in 2016. When the new front office took over, they went with Royce Lewis the next year, and then followed up with Trevor Larnach. Since that point I’ve contended the separation between Kirilloff and Larnach shouldn’t have been presumed to be much. We’re now seeing that take shape.
Kirilloff is playing through an injury, and while he’s having himself a nice debut, I don’t think it’s quite to the level he’ll reach in short order. That’s given way for Larnach to shine though, and he’s done exactly that. Trevor was thrust into a Major League role given the Twins outfield health issues. Having played just three games at Triple-A, and only 43 at Double-A two years ago, a premature call-up is probably fair to suggest.
Despite taking some time to acclimate, he’s begun to settle in. Now with 31 games under his belt, the former Oregon State Beaver owns a .263/.386/.421 slash line. The .807 OPS isn’t all that noteworthy, but the 131 OPS+ plays, and the number that jumps off the page is the .386 OBP backed by a strong 33/14 K/BB.
Larnach hasn’t yet ran into much power. He has just nine extra base hits, of which only three have left the yard. That isn’t to suggest the process isn’t sound, though. Drafted with notes of high exit velocities, that has played out at the highest level. Larnach owns a 37.1% hard hit rate and a 14.5% barrel rate. His xSLG sits 40 points higher at .466 and he owns a max exit velo of 116 mph.
I don’t think you’ll find anyone jumping to suggest that Larnach is otherworldly on either of the corners, but it’s more than apparent he can stick. With the bat profile he has, a traditional corner outfielder with pop is exactly what he’s trending towards. This isn’t a finished product by any means, but I think the Twins have to be thrilled with the early returns. Recently at Fangraphs, Paul Sporer also took a look into where Larnach could go from here.
Both Larnach and Kirilloff should be mainstays in the Minnesota lineup for years to come. We have seen both of them bat in the heart of the order this year, and while that’s more reflective of circumstance, they’ve held their own plenty. In lieu of so many injuries having piled up on the Twins this season, it’s been nice to see opportunity parlayed into production for a guy like Larnach.
Not every prospect comes up and flourishes. The Seattle Mariners just had to demote top prospect Jarred Kelenic after a terrible start. Baseball is hard, and even moreso when the runway for readiness hasn’t been there in a traditional sense. Give it to Larnach for battling that adversity and still producing at the level he is.
While Kirilloff is still my pick to be the better player with a more likely shot to win a batting title, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Larnach round out into a more complete specimen with an opportunity to bang 40 homers in a single season. It’s been a good start, and this is just the beginning.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

If you're expected to win, and then fail to do so in spectacular fashion, people are going to have thoughts.
It's also safe to assume that those thoughts don't stay surface level for very long. For the 2021 Twins, the last few weeks have been a long trudge past the acceptance of things as they are, and have begun to approach the next station down the line: Why?
"Why" is an important question that has consumed the game of baseball since its creation. It is a question that drives everyone involved in the game and almost everyone that follows it. Careers are made and broken attempting to answer it. Out of all the major spectator sports in the world, baseball is one of the most random, volatile, and unpredictable. The best team in the league facing off against the worst still isn't as heavy a favorite as you might expect. This makes answering the question even more important. But this game has been played for over a century, and despite front offices being invaded by every Ivy League sabermatrician with programming experience, there's a lot about the game that just cannot be accounted for.
It is within this vacuum that narrative begins to form, and like a gas, expand to fill every available inch of social media. Our emotional investment in the Twins demands an attempt to make sense of a senseless sequence. Words like "implosion" don't feel adequate, because it doesn't do justice to how much it feels like it's a force being inflicted upon the team, rather than the results of internal motivations. Regardless, we try and take an inventory of what hurts, and search for accountability.
Is the roster underperforming? Unquestionably. I can't recall ever seeing so much of a single roster falling to the bottom 20% of their preseason projections with such synchrony. Are the Twins seeing their share of injuries? Yes, and then some. Are the Twins unlucky? According to the stats, they're the unluckiest in the league, and have a lot of production stats in common with the Oakland A's, who have more wins than the Twins have losses. Everything is happening, it's all bad, and it's happening all at once.
And then, to rub salt in the wound, the White Sox got hot. They started their rebuild later, they were on a trajectory to give the Twins a bit more time to contend, and then they leapfrogged them in the standings while destroying them mercilessly along the way. They're doing this while also suffering from their best players sidelined and being managed by a guy who started his pro ball career when John F. Kennedy was in office, and hasn't updated his worldview since. Where the Twins are punished for their faults, the White Sox seem to glide through life. As a Twins fan, this was supposed to be our time, and the spotlight got stolen by the worst possible division rival.
Watching all this transpire, attempting to process it, you're left holding the bag and being asked to put a nice neat bow on a morass of misfortune. Unable to wrap your arms around it, the narrative becomes more and more tempting.
"The coaches are too calm, they need to fire up this team and yell more!"
"Rocco's lost the clubhouse, it's time to fire him."
"The players don't want it enough!"
Any time you hear missives like these, and they aren't accompanied by direct evidence from the clubhouse or a credible source, Colin Cowherd-sized alarm bells should start going off in your head. You are being asked to accept generalities to rationalize a giant sea of inexplicable fate. Explaining data points by assuming the motives of strangers is a task that should be reserved for criminal profilers, not Twins Twitter. Kenta Maeda isn't struggling because of some nebulous lack of leadership, it's because he's lost the ability to locate his slider.
There's a notable clip from ESPN's First Take in 2012, when Mark Cuban came onto the show, and used every available moment to go after Skip Bayless and his notions of 'narrative'. 
Throughout the exchange, Cuban lays out his argument for why statements like how the one team "played harder" aren't worth the airtime they're eventually given- because they're not backed up by any meaningful data and are fueled by apathy at best, and intentional ignorance at worst.
If you want to convince me how the Twins got to 13-26 and have someone to blame, you're going to have to do a lot more than sell me on a lack of motivation, clubhouse chemistry, or some kind of failing strategic approach, because in the words of Kronk, it doesn't make any sense.
Baseball is a cruel game. You can assemble the same roster and play the same way, and end up with radically different results by the end of the season. I have a hard time finding obvious fatal flaws in the approach by the front office, management, or the players themselves. Sure, I'll always agree that ownership could stand to spend some more money, but a few million dollars doesn't magically repair Byron Buxton's hamstring, and it doesn't solve why any game that doesn't go exactly 9 innings becomes an automatic loss.
I'm not angry at the team, the coaches, or the FO. I'm just sad. This roster- and by extension, this fanbase- deserves better than the hand they've been dealt, right as the window of contention seemed to be opening wide (and, by some accounts, ahead of schedule). And now, after six weeks of unprecedented horror- which is saying something for a team with this kind of history- the voices are growing louder that it's time to pack it in and start over from scratch.
All that said, I'm going to continue rooting for this team. They clearly want it enough. The clubhouse knows what they're capable of, and would love the opportunity to showcase it, if fate and luck would just get out of the goddamn way. In the meantime, I'll be watching, and screaming into the nearest pillow every time a barreled ball goes straight at an opposing fielder.
The Twins are dead. Long live the Twins.

The Minnesota Twins have played more than a handful of Spring Training games and Opening Day is less than a month away. Who will make up the 26-man roster in Milwaukee on April 1?
 
There’s been a couple of additions since roster projection 1.0 exactly one month ago, and spring performances may wind up influencing some of the roster decisions as well. It appears there will be fans in the stands no matter where you turn on Opening Day, so who will fans of the reigning AL Central division champions be seeing? Here’s the first revision:
 
Starting Pitchers (5): Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker
 
Randy Dobnak gets bumped from the group as the addition of Shoemaker on a one-year deal worth $2 million all but cements his place as the final starter. The former Angels pitcher has been good when healthy, he’s just rarely remained that for significant stretches of time. Minnesota has solid starting depth, even if the ceiling is lowered behind Pineda. This should be a solid group.
 
Relief Pitchers (8): Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe
 
I’m really uncertain what to do with this group. Only six spots seem like certainties, and despite Caleb Thielbar needing to be a seventh, he may miss the start of the season with an injury. Minnesota also seems likely to carry 14 pitchers given the workload differential in adding 102 games this season. That said, I have no idea how they get there. Shaun Anderson is on the 40-man roster already. Thorpe and Dobnak have looked good this spring, but both should remain stretched out to start. Ian Hamilton, Ian Gibault, and Brandon Waddell would all need a spot on the 40-man roster if they were to be included.
 
Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers
 
Removing Willians Astudillo here solely from the idea that the options elsewhere seem better suited for the roster. He’s not a true catcher and the top two should be able to split duties evenly.
 
Infielders (5): Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez
 
No changes here and the only thing that could make some sense would be a true shortstop to spell Andrelton Simmons. Jorge Polanco will likely be asked to play that role at times rather than including someone like J.T. Riddle, who would need a 40-man spot should he make the club.
 
Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave, Brent Rooker
 
Talk about a group brimming with options. Kirilloff should be the Opening Day left fielder. The team has suggested Arraez isn’t being groomed to play the outfield, and there’s no Triple-A action for a month. Jake Cave is the holdover fourth outfielder, but he’s a bit redundant as another left-handed bat. Keon Broxton is a non-roster guy that can truly play centerfield and he’s looked very good in the early going. Kyle Garlick is a right-handed hitter with a 40-man spot who’s also looked good, but he’s probably destined more for the corners. If you’re adding another bat, it probably needs to be Brent Rooker. He’s not a centerfielder, but he too is right-handed and looked the part before his injury in 2020.
 
Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz
 
No change here
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

#8 - Matt Wallner OF (1st Round 2019, Southern Miss)
|
Another bat-first prospect, Wallner has some serious power behind his bat after hitting 58 HRs at Southern Mississippi (in just 872 PAs!). He did alright at Elizabethton, and his main concern as a hitter will be limiting the strikeouts. Defensively he's a subpar runner and will be limited to corner OF, if not 1B. He also pitched part-time in college, which means he's got the arm to throw out runners.
|
#7 - Brent Rooker 1B (1st Round 2017, Miss State)
|
Rooker's very similar to Sabato and Wallner, but unlike them, he's ready to play in the majors. He did well in his first week of games in the majors before fracturing his wrist on a pitch, and we saw a glimpse into his upside. He's got the power to hit 25+ HRs a season and his batting average did not suffer much in the minors. Strikeouts will be a concern, as he had a dangerously high 33.8% strikeout rate at AAA. Despite that he still hit .928 OPS with a super strong .399 OBP. Defensively, he really shouldn't be playing in the outfield. He hasn't played a ton of 1B, but hopefully he's given plenty of practice there because that would be an ideal place to end up. Otherwise he'll be a DH his whole career.
|
#6 - Jordan Balazovic RHP (5th Round 2016, HS)
|
The Twins have gone through a drought of starting pitcher prospects for at least 10 years, and have been desperate to get a guy like Balazovic up and going. He mowed through Fort Myers A+ in 2019 with a strong 2.84 ERA, a phenomenal K/9 rate (11.8) without a bad BB/9 rate (2.6). He uses a strong mix of a 94-95 MPH fastball that acts a sinker, and sprinkles in similar-looking curveballs and sliders. He needs to get more innings under his belt and I don't think he profiles as a #1 or #2 starter, but he has a clean injury history and he'll likely be starting in AA at the young age of 21. Balazovic has a bright future in the big leagues if he continues down the path he's headed.
|
#5 - Jhoan Duran RHP (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade)
|
The top pitching prospect, Duran turned his career around once arriving in the Twins organization, going from a #20-30 prospect in Arizona to top-tier prospect. Duran's fastball has sped up the past couple season, sitting in the upper 90s and he'll hit 100 every once in a while. His secondary pitch is a splitter that can hit 94, and consistently fool hitters with its fastball-speed. His command can be a bit shaky at times, but that's even been a huge problem for him. Duran does have the toolset to be a dynamite reliever, but he's successfully pitched a starter's workload in the minors and should land in the rotation. Perhaps he pitches in the Twins' bullpen down the stretch in 2021 as his first dip into the MLB pool.
|
#4 - Royce Lewis SS (1st Round 2017, HS)
|
Most prospect rankers won't agree with this, but I'm not as high on Lewis as most are. The first overall draft pick in 2017, Lewis had very strong 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he hit poorly in 2019 at A+ and AA. He was promoted to AA despite hitting .665 OPS, and proceeded to hit .649 OPS there. Critics have pointed out that Lewis' swing does not look good and his approach at the plate needs heavy refinement, and his pitch recognition is currently poor. He's still young, turning 22 this summer, but I don't think he's particularly close to being MLB-ready. There has also been debate about whether he will end up at SS or CF, as he has the raw speed to handle both. This ranking has mostly been negative, but Royce has the potential to become a talented hitter with 60-65 power potential and has the highest ceiling of any prospect on this team. I just get the sense that Lewis will become a hitter whose approach at the plate won't click until Year 4 or 5 of his career.
|
#3 - Alex Kiriloff OF (1st Round 2016, HS)
|
The Twins are poised to make Kiriloff their starting LF in 2021, and it's not hard to see why. He has a career .317 batting average in the minors, and that's no fluke. Scouts rave about his ability to make consistent contact on tough pitches, he has has some serious power behind his swing, with the potential for 20+ HRs a year. Kiriloff's focus on contact has kept the number of walks low, but that's not a big concern if he hits > .300. He's had a couple of wrist injuries and missed the entire 2017 season. Defensively Kiriloff is one of the lower prospects on this list, and while he has a good glove and a great arm, he may end up at 1B. Hopefully his bat will end up somehwere in the #2-4 spot in the lineup one day.
|
#2 - Ryan Jeffers C (2nd Round 2018, UNC Wilmington)
|
This is probably the highest you've ever seen Jeffers on a prospect ranking, but I am comfortable putting him this high. Good catching prospects are rare, and Jeffers is the entire package. He was yet another 'questionable draft pick' in the 2nd round, but the Twins organization sculpted him into one of the best defensive backstops in the minor leagues after initial scouting reports claimed he wouldn't be able to stay at catcher. He ranked as a top-notch pitch framer, and showed as much in his 26 game debut in 2020. His bat was always his calling card, and it didn't disappoint in the minors with a very strong (.296/.383/.453 .836 OPS). He'll take a lot of walks and has the potential for more power. Jeffers is ready to graduate off this list and will push for the starting role as the Twins' catcher.
|
#1 - Trevor Larnach OF (1st Round 2018, Oregon State)
|
I conclude with another bat-first position player, of whom has the best minor league track record to this point. Larnach covered 4 levels of the minor leagues through only two years (2018-19) and held his own at every level, never dipping below a .295 batting average or .840 OPS. In total he's recorded a (.307/.385/.468) triple slash, and that's even with only 18 HRs in that stretch. He's got more power in that bat, no doubt. Larnach will take plenty of walks too, as his K/BB ratio was very healthy too. Defensively he's a bit on the slower side, but I think he will work as a RF with a decent glove and strong arm. Once he figures out the big leagues, Larnach is a hitter whose name should be penned into the #3 spot in the lineup and be let loose to rake to his heart's content.
||
I will add one more blog post soon going over my formula of how these rankings were calculated. Until then, let me know what you think!

#8 - Matt Wallner OF (1st Round 2019, Southern Miss)
|
Another bat-first prospect, Wallner has some serious power behind his bat after hitting 58 HRs at Southern Mississippi (in just 872 PAs!). He did alright at Elizabethton, and his main concern as a hitter will be limiting the strikeouts. Defensively he's a subpar runner and will be limited to corner OF, if not 1B. He also pitched part-time in college, which means he's got the arm to throw out runners.
|
#7 - Brent Rooker 1B (1st Round 2017, Miss State)
|
Rooker's very similar to Sabato and Wallner, but unlike them, he's ready to play in the majors. He did well in his first week of games in the majors before fracturing his wrist on a pitch, and we saw a glimpse into his upside. He's got the power to hit 25+ HRs a season and his batting average did not suffer much in the minors. Strikeouts will be a concern, as he had a dangerously high 33.8% strikeout rate at AAA. Despite that he still hit .928 OPS with a super strong .399 OBP. Defensively, he really shouldn't be playing in the outfield. He hasn't played a ton of 1B, but hopefully he's given plenty of practice there because that would be an ideal place to end up. Otherwise he'll be a DH his whole career.
|
#6 - Jordan Balazovic RHP (5th Round 2016, HS)
|
The Twins have gone through a drought of starting pitcher prospects for at least 10 years, and have been desperate to get a guy like Balazovic up and going. He mowed through Fort Myers A+ in 2019 with a strong 2.84 ERA, a phenomenal K/9 rate (11.8) without a bad BB/9 rate (2.6). He uses a strong mix of a 94-95 MPH fastball that acts a sinker, and sprinkles in similar-looking curveballs and sliders. He needs to get more innings under his belt and I don't think he profiles as a #1 or #2 starter, but he has a clean injury history and he'll likely be starting in AA at the young age of 21. Balazovic has a bright future in the big leagues if he continues down the path he's headed.
|
#5 - Jhoan Duran RHP (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade)
|
The top pitching prospect, Duran turned his career around once arriving in the Twins organization, going from a #20-30 prospect in Arizona to top-tier prospect. Duran's fastball has sped up the past couple season, sitting in the upper 90s and he'll hit 100 every once in a while. His secondary pitch is a splitter that can hit 94, and consistently fool hitters with its fastball-speed. His command can be a bit shaky at times, but that's even been a huge problem for him. Duran does have the toolset to be a dynamite reliever, but he's successfully pitched a starter's workload in the minors and should land in the rotation. Perhaps he pitches in the Twins' bullpen down the stretch in 2021 as his first dip into the MLB pool.
|
#4 - Royce Lewis SS (1st Round 2017, HS)
|
Most prospect rankers won't agree with this, but I'm not as high on Lewis as most are. The first overall draft pick in 2017, Lewis had very strong 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he hit poorly in 2019 at A+ and AA. He was promoted to AA despite hitting .665 OPS, and proceeded to hit .649 OPS there. Critics have pointed out that Lewis' swing does not look good and his approach at the plate needs heavy refinement, and his pitch recognition is currently poor. He's still young, turning 22 this summer, but I don't think he's particularly close to being MLB-ready. There has also been debate about whether he will end up at SS or CF, as he has the raw speed to handle both. This ranking has mostly been negative, but Royce has the potential to become a talented hitter with 60-65 power potential and has the highest ceiling of any prospect on this team. I just get the sense that Lewis will become a hitter whose approach at the plate won't click until Year 4 or 5 of his career.
|
#3 - Alex Kiriloff OF (1st Round 2016, HS)
|
The Twins are poised to make Kiriloff their starting LF in 2021, and it's not hard to see why. He has a career .317 batting average in the minors, and that's no fluke. Scouts rave about his ability to make consistent contact on tough pitches, he has has some serious power behind his swing, with the potential for 20+ HRs a year. Kiriloff's focus on contact has kept the number of walks low, but that's not a big concern if he hits > .300. He's had a couple of wrist injuries and missed the entire 2017 season. Defensively Kiriloff is one of the lower prospects on this list, and while he has a good glove and a great arm, he may end up at 1B. Hopefully his bat will end up somehwere in the #2-4 spot in the lineup one day.
|
#2 - Ryan Jeffers C (2nd Round 2018, UNC Wilmington)
|
This is probably the highest you've ever seen Jeffers on a prospect ranking, but I am comfortable putting him this high. Good catching prospects are rare, and Jeffers is the entire package. He was yet another 'questionable draft pick' in the 2nd round, but the Twins organization sculpted him into one of the best defensive backstops in the minor leagues after initial scouting reports claimed he wouldn't be able to stay at catcher. He ranked as a top-notch pitch framer, and showed as much in his 26 game debut in 2020. His bat was always his calling card, and it didn't disappoint in the minors with a very strong (.296/.383/.453 .836 OPS). He'll take a lot of walks and has the potential for more power. Jeffers is ready to graduate off this list and will push for the starting role as the Twins' catcher.
|
#1 - Trevor Larnach OF (1st Round 2018, Oregon State)
|
I conclude with another bat-first position player, of whom has the best minor league track record to this point. Larnach covered 4 levels of the minor leagues through only two years (2018-19) and held his own at every level, never dipping below a .295 batting average or .840 OPS. In total he's recorded a (.307/.385/.468) triple slash, and that's even with only 18 HRs in that stretch. He's got more power in that bat, no doubt. Larnach will take plenty of walks too, as his K/BB ratio was very healthy too. Defensively he's a bit on the slower side, but I think he will work as a RF with a decent glove and strong arm. Once he figures out the big leagues, Larnach is a hitter whose name should be penned into the #3 spot in the lineup and be let loose to rake to his heart's content.
||
I will add one more blog post soon going over my formula of how these rankings were calculated. Until then, let me know what you think!