Linus

Does Margot have any trade value? He’s free so something?

Normally I would say no way but they are one starter injury away from a big problem. Never thought I would say this but I have more confidence in Sands than Festa or Dobnak or even the current version of Varland. Of course the question is how much stuff will he lose having to pitch multiple innings?

I think you nailed it. I’ve enjoyed watching Martin - he adds something to the lineup.

Tough play but if Miranda can come up with that shot in the 5th or even knock it down Pablo might have got out of that inning. He’s making the routine plays so that’s a start. Martin giving a glimpse of what could be. His profile as a hitter could really round out this lineup.

Yes. At a minimum we shouldn’t need to sign the Margot and Santana types next year. Both players provide some diversity to the lineup.

The DeSclafani part of the trade has been widely discussed. I don’t buy the “he was just a throw in” argument. The FO needed to add starting pitching and DeSclafani was the only starter added. So regardless of the circumstances of the trade it was a major fail for 2024 on the part of the FO.

No

We traded Berrios with a year and a half left of control. So we traded a year and a half of Berrios plus the QO pick for Martin and SWR. Right now advantage Toronto but that could change as early as this year.

Laz Diaz cementing his reputation as being a horrible umpire. And he is better than Angel Hernandez.

Legion ball.

Count me in the camp of skeptical of Festa. Pitchers with his lack of command rarely make it in the bigs. Obviously hope for the best but whips of 1.5+ in AAA doesn’t work.

That’s a straw man. Nobody is saying that. It’s about the bench players you choose.

I will tip my cap to Julien last night. One of his later at bats he had two strikes and the pitcher threw a beauty back door cutter right on the black. No chance but Julien flipped his bat out there and managed the weakest foul ball. Next pitch was a cutter down but middle and Eddy had a good rip at it and just missed it. That was a good at bat. He spoiled the pitchers pitch and the reward was a shot at a much better pitch to hit.

And our guy Max has been to the IL 8 times in the last couple seasons. You are crazy if you don’t plan on them getting hurt.

Or they chose out of Couleme when they should have chosen coulemB

I think it’s complicated. Data is pretty clear that walks and power correlate to scoring the most runs. So the Twins clearly try to work counts and try to do damage when they get a pitch they are looking for. They are literally looking for a certain pitch in a certain spot and are using this prepared game plan to know what that pitch should be. They use this approach even with two strikes. Sounds good. Now here are the practical realities of this approach. As you work the count a game of chicken begins: the closer you get to a walk the closer you get to a strikeout. The more strikes you have against you the more your batting average plummets. If you don’t walk but you don’t get your pitch you strike out looking. If you don’t walk but get your pitch and swing and miss you strike out swinging. Doing damage in modern baseball means yanking it to the pull side which leaves you vulnerable to pitches on the outside part of the plate. In consideration of all of these factors what you get is an approach where the success rate is going to vary highly which we clearly see. Within a game it might be acceptable- as long as it works a couple of times you are likely to put up crooked numbers. What we see is the variability stretches across games and series leaving us with games where we literally have no chance to win. I think this is the reason Rocco pinch hits so early in games. This style is predicated on getting a couple of ripe chances a game and putting up all the runs needed in those couple chances. Two last thoughts- I’ve always believed the old adage that in the big leagues you are likely to get only one good pitch to hit in an at bat. If that pitch comes in the early part of the at bat and isn’t one the scouting report says to look for it is taken for a strike and the at bat is likely lost. We see this all the time and is what is eating Julien up right now. Second thought is that the strict adherence to the game plan has essentially turned our lineup into guess hitters. Not long ago that was a derogatory term for someone who had lost bat speed and had to guess to get the bat to the zone on time. End result is that you end up with very little ability to adapt to something unexpected. This would also be a big reason why they don’t go the other way anymore. They can’t adapt to a pitch on the outside part of the plate that they aren’t looking for so they just don’t swing at it and hope it gets called a ball. If it’s a strike they just go sit down. People smarter than me figure this stuff out so I’m sure there are several layers of nuance to it but the basic premise and its outcomes (good and bad) are what we see every game.

You nailed it. I would qualify coaching staff to be hitting approach.

Lucas - thanks for these articles. Just so helpful to get science based info. Is manual manipulation of the disk part of the therapy?

Just hope Pablo is ok. 91 mph fastball at the end doesn’t sound good.

Good start by Paddack. Which is really important given the lack of depth in the starting rotation.

Yea well no kidding.

Henriquez with almost 40 pitches. The Uber to take him to St Paul is idling outside Target Field.

I love Varland but he isn’t going to be a good starter. His secondary pitches aren’t good enough. When he was in the pen he threw his cutter harder and it was really good. Now they have to keep him as a starter because they have no starter depth at all. What a fiasco of an off season.

Write ups like this a very interesting but almost always focus on offensive potential. What are his fielding attributes? Is this another Twins draft pick that is all bat and no glove?

We burned through the bullpen depth in a hurry.