Nick Nelson

The article actually used the word "traditional" 200 inning starter, not typical. As in, starting pitchers were traditionally built up for a 200-IP type workload (not so long ago!) and Raya is an example -- albeit on the extreme end -- of how much the convention is being bucked these days.

For a while, Marco Raya was considered the best-kept secret in the Twins system. Now that he's had a chance to show his stuff on the mound, leaving no doubt of his ability, he just needs to prove he can hold up against a professional starter's workload... if that is, indeed, the plan. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Age: 21 (DOB: 8/7/2002) 2023 Stats (A+/AA): 62 2/3 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 ETA: 2025 2023 Ranking: 4 National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR What's To Like Selected out of a Texas high school in the fourth round of the 2020 draft, Marco Raya didn't make his official professional debut until 2022. By then, people in the organization had been raving about the young hurler's work behind the scenes for months, talking about how much promise he showed with a stellar fastball/slider combo. I made him my "pick to click" in that year's top prospect list recap at Twins Daily. The organization finally let Raya loose that season, and he definitely clicked, posting a 3.05 ERA in 65 innings at Low-A, where he was three full years younger than the average player. The outstanding performance vaulted him to No. 4 in last year's ranking, a spot he retains this time around following another impressive campaign. While the Twins have been ultra-cautious with Raya's handling on the mound, they've also been very aggressive in pushing the right-hander competitively. Despite a relatively short stint at Low-A in 2022, he opened the 2023 season at High-A Cedar Rapids, where he continued to overpower more experienced opposition. In 11 starts for the Kernels, Raya posted a 2.93 ERA and 39-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 ⅔ innings, holding opponents to a .192/.250/.325 triple-slash. Twins decision-makers were impressed enough that they once again promoted Raya, making him one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A after totaling fewer than 100 innings in A-ball. The 20-year-old righty struggled with the transition at first (11.08 ERA, 13/11 K/BB in his first six starts), but settled in and cruised to the finish line for Wichita (0.56 ERA, 13/3 K/BB in his last five starts). Raya throws a high-spin fastball that clocks at 94-96 MPH and is difficult to square up, but he mixes in a lot of breaking balls. That's where his real strength lies. In particular, the oft-used slider has been a tremendous weapon for him at every level, in large part because he can throw it where he wants with precision. "Raya’s slider has above-average horizontal movement, and he has the ability to get swings and misses in the zone with it," according to Baseball America. "He actually has better command of his slider than his fastball." When you have stuff like this and can throw it for strikes, you're going to be successful in the minors, even against more seasoned and accomplished competition. We've seen that play out consistently for Raya. It explains why the Twins have been comfortable advancing him so aggressively, and it's why we should feel good about Raya continuing to get results as he keeps moving up the ladder toward a not-too-distant MLB debut. What's Left To Work On When it comes to development, the Twins have clearly adopted an attitude that there's not much value in having young pitchers pile up a bunch of innings in the minors. Looking through game logs for any of their highly-rated starter prospects last year, you will rarely find an instance of someone pitching into the sixth inning or approaching 100 pitches. Raya has been on the extreme end, to the point where one could argue the organization is handling him with kid gloves. Although 39 of his 41 professional appearances have been starts, and he's obviously pitched well, Raya has only averaged a bit over three innings per outing. Last year, he never once pitched into even the fifth inning, nor threw more than 54 pitches. I can certainly see the logic in this philosophy. Throwing at max effort in game action is very hard on the body, and there's a cost to wasting bullets. Minor-league games ultimately don't matter for much other than development, and a lot of that can be handled on the side, as Raya's journey exemplifies. But the extent to which he's been held back does limit our ability to evaluate and project his potential as a major-league starter. Is his skinny yet athletic 6-foot-1 frame up to the task of sustaining velocity past 60 or 70 pitches? We don't know; we've never seen it. Will his stuff play against lineups multiple times? He never got through the batting order even two full times in a start last year, much less a third. Until he answers these questions, it'll be hard to envision Raya as anything approximating a traditional 200-inning starter. But the talent and performance have been so excellent that it's easy to envision him as an effective major-league pitcher, which is why Twins Daily has him ranked as the organization's top pitching prospect for a second straight year. What's Next Raya is likely to open his age-21 season back at Double-A. From there, he seems to have two paths forward in 2024. Either the Twins will start to focus on extending his outings and building him up toward a true starter's workload, or they'll continue to use him in shorter bursts with an eye on getting him to the majors quickly. Conceivably, Raya could join the big-league staff at some point during the season, perhaps as a multi-inning reliever. He'd be one of the youngest pitchers to debut for the Twins in decades. Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown Honorable Mentions 20. Zebby Matthews, RHP 19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 18. Ricardo Olivar, OF 17. Connor Prielipp, LHP 16. Matt Canterino, RHP 15. Yunior Severino, 1B 14. Danny De Andrade, SS 13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP 12. Kala'i Rosario, OF 11. Luke Keaschall, 2B 10. Tanner Schobel, 2B 9. Brandon Winokur, OF 8. Charlee Soto, RHP 7. Cory Lewis, RHP 5. David Festa, RHP 4. Marco Raya, RHP Check back tomorrow for a look at our No. 3 prospect of 2024, and this evening for a bonus insert to the list! For now, let's hear your thoughts on Marco Raya. What's the next step for his development? View full article

Writing about invisible factors like leadership and clubhouse character is difficult, as an outsider. But we can't ignore how intentional the Twins have been (and continue to be) about building their team culture, and the results they've seen. It's worth talking about. Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports What's leadership worth? How do you quantify the value of a veteran player who is well-liked in the clubhouse – someone the younger guys can look to for advice and guidance? These feel like impossible questions to answer, but at the same time, they need to be asked as we assess the front office's team-building strategy. As guests at the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown last month, Louie Varland and Matt Wallner were asked about the veteran teammates who made a difference for them in 2023 as rookies learning the ropes. Both quickly named Emilio Pagán, who was frequently commended throughout his Twins tenure as an approachable and helpful presence in the clubhouse. It's striking that even Wallner, an outfielder, felt impacted by a relief pitcher with such a different role and routine. Many fans wondered why the Twins felt so attached to Pagán after a rough 2022 campaign, bringing him back last year as one of their highest-paid relievers. I suspect his intangible qualities played a part, and the club's bet paid off on both fronts. Pagán's value clearly went beyond his 2.99 ERA in 70 innings, leaving Minnesota's front office with more than just quality innings to replace. Through this lens, we look at the signing of 36-year-old veteran Jay Jackson, made official Wednesday. It's a fascinating contract, given the circumstances: not just a guaranteed MLB deal for a 36-year-old who'd never had one before, but one worth $1.3 million, with a club option and $200,000 buyout for 2025. If that's exercised, Jackson will earn $3 million (plus incentives) in 2025. (For context, Caleb Thielbar is their highest-paid reliever in 2024, at $3.2 million.) The total risk here for Minnesota is only $1.5 million, so it's not some high-stakes gamble. But the contract shows there was a real market for Jackson, who spent years pitching in Japan and has no meaningful track record of major-league success. Meanwhile, the relatively lucrative team option suggests the front office envisions a future for this partnership. Not to downplay their belief in Jackson's on-field ability–his slider can be a weapon–but this signing seems to be about more than that. The well-traveled reliever will bring a unique and valuable perspective to a team largely reliant on youth and inexperience. This represents a common theme in how the Twins have invested their scarce resources this offseason. The decision to tender a contract to Kyle Farmer back in November, despite known budgetary constraints, was striking. His $6-million salary has to be considered a luxury given his on-field role, but again, the Twins recognize an impact beyond the OPS+ and WAR. Farmer was another player quickly named as a veteran influence in the Winter Meltdown interview. The signing of free agent Carlos Santana, also announced on Wednesday, carried a similar undertone as Jackson's: late-30s vet who's been around the block, and might add as much to the locker room as the lineup in a part-time role. “This is a guy who is a leader, a tremendous teammate who shows up every day to play,” Derek Falvey said in describing Santana. The Twins suffered some key losses to free agency in terms of veteran personalities. The front office has been more committed to mitigating that aspect this offseason than replacing the on-field production. Honestly, it may well be a smart strategy. Anyone who spent time around the team last year can tell you how infectious the energy was and how much that seemed to lift everyone. Pagán and Farmer (and another offseason loss, Jorge Polanco) played big roles in that. But it all routes back, of course, to Carlos Correa. The Minnesota Twins signed Correa to a $105-million contract, and then after scrapping that, to a new $200 million contract. These accurate historical statements would have felt so funny to write in the not-so-distant past. This organization pushed well past its comfort zone when the opportunity to lock up Correa arose last winter, and there is zero question the decision was motivated by much more than his production and performance in games. Even coming off his worst season statistically, I'd bet the Twins felt he was worth his $35-million salary last year, and are glad to have him for the same this year, financial restrictions and all. Miraculously pivoting from Josh Donaldson to Correa was perhaps Falvey's crowning achievement, and certainly reshaped the clubhouse dynamic in fundamental ways. Given the connotations about analytics-driven front offices, one might consider it ironic that the Twins have leaned into intangibles and leadership qualities as predictors of success. But Falvey, Thad Levine, and the rest of Minnesota's decision-makers are not ignorant to the human element. If they ever were, they sure aren't now, having lived through the Donaldson era, and having seen the effect of disgruntled mercenaries like Lance Lynn. Despite those hiccups, you could argue that this emphasis can be traced to Falvey and Levine's very first year at the helm, when they used the No. 1 overall draft pick to select Royce Lewis, whose exceptional makeup and character elevated him above others at the top of a much-debated 2017 class. We're seeing the payoff now, with Lewis becoming an integral part of the clubhouse culture that the front office has built, and that Rocco Baldelli spearheads as manager. Baldelli runs as committed and harmonious a clubhouse as anyone in baseball, but it helps that he and the front office have been so intentional about what kind of people they enfold into that group. View full article

Great question. This kind of summarizes where I'm landing with him at the moment. Performance against Double-A competition will be very telling. Be fun to see him and Raya both in the Wichita rotation.

Cory Lewis was named Twins' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in his first season with the organization. What's next for the righty and his intriguing high-speed knuckleball? Age: 23 (DOB: 10/9/2000) 2023 Stats (A/A+): 101.1 IP, 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 ETA: 2025 2023 Ranking: NR National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR What's To Like After joining the organization as a ninth-round draft pick in 2022, Cory Lewis took the minor leagues by storm last year. In nine starts at Low-A Ft. Myers, he posted a 2.75 ERA to quickly earn a promotion to High-A. Lewis didn't miss a beat, going 5-1 with a 2.32 ERA in 13 starts for Cedar Rapids to close out an extremely successful first season in the system. The 23-year-old right-hander works from a deep five-pitch mix, which he talked through with Twins Daily's Seth Stohs after last season. You've got all the standards here – four-seam fastball, changeup, curve, slider – but Lewis's repertoire is made unique by the inclusion of a knuckleball. It's not a conventional version of the pitch, buzzing to the plate in the mid-80s as opposed to the slow floaters that generally come to mind. He also doesn't use it like a conventional knuckleballer, throwing it only occasionally as a pace-changer rather than favoring it as his main weapon. Still, the pitch helped keep pro hitters off balance in Lewis's first foray against them, and looks like it will be a real asset in his growth. Between the two levels of A-ball in 2023, Lewis allowed only 74 hits over 101 ⅓ innings, holding opponents to a .198 batting average that was among the lowest for all starters in the minors. "Adding in the knuckleball is what turns a tough at-bat into a brain-scrambler," according to Baseball America's scouting report. "He only throws it a few times a game, but it’s a weapon because hitters usually have never seen anything like it." What's Left To Work On There's a reason Lewis fell to the ninth round, signing for a relatively modest $140,000 out of UC Santa Barbara. He struggled with command in college, issuing 42 walks in 88 innings as a junior, and his fastball was in the upper 80s. He's added a few ticks since joining the Twins organization, but still doesn't regularly pump his heater into the mid-90s like many other top pitching prospects. Lewis's fastball is known better for its riding movement than its velocity, and was an effective mainstay for him last year, but there are questions about how it will play against more advanced hitters. The same is true of his offspeed pitches, which aren't widely viewed by evaluators as plus offerings. However, Twins scouting director Drew MacPhail has stated that Lewis has "some of the best movement on his slider and changeup in our system." The organization's reigning Minor League Pitcher of the Year should get a shot at Double-A this year, and the way he responds to that challenge will be telling. What's Next Lewis deals from a bendy and flummoxing repertoire that dominated Single-A hitters when he threw it in the zone. His professional debut was a resounding success, convincingly placing him on the prospect radar. Entering 2024, Lewis stands out as most exciting from a group of college starters drafted in 2022 – including our No. 13 prospect C.J. Culpepper and No. 20 Zebby Matthews – that now comprises a bulk of Minnesota's pitching pipeline. These hurlers will all be tested in key ways by taking the step to the upper minors, which is a central storyline for the system this year. Lewis gives plenty of reason to believe he's up to the task, especially if he increases the use of his bat-dodging knuckleball or amps up the rest of his arsenal. A late-season MLB debut is not out of the question, but realistically, some growing pains should probably be expected. Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown 20. Zebby Matthews, RHP 19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 18. Ricardo Olivar, OF 17. Connor Prielipp, LHP 16. Matt Canterino, RHP 15. Yunior Severino, 1B 14. Danny De Andrade, SS 13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP 12. Kala'i Rosario, OF 11. Luke Keaschall, 2B 10. Tanner Schobel, 2B 9. Brandon Winokur, OF 8. Charlee Soto, RHP 7. Cory Lewis, RHP Check back tomorrow to read about our pick for No. 6 on the list! For now, let's hear your thoughts on Cory Lewis. Is he the real deal, or will his flaws be exploited in Double-A? View full article

The Twins awakened from their offseason slumber with a pair of significant moves that significantly reshape their 2024 team. Let's review these latest moves and how they impact the outlook for this season. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika and Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports With the start of spring training less than two weeks away, the Twins' offseason makeover feels like a work still in progress. From a fan's perspective, it's tough to feel enthused about a stagnant three months that saw several quality players exit via free agency, with zero corresponding additions. This past week, Jorge Polanco joined the list of key departures, but the Twins finally started to add at last. Let's start with the blockbuster trade that sent out a longtime franchise fixture. Twins Trade Polanco for Four-Player Package Minnesota was known to be shopping Polanco throughout the winter, as they sought to unload salary and free up their infield logjam. That lengthy journey finally reached a conclusion on when the Twins pulled the trigger on a deal with the Seattle Mariners, bringing back an interesting mix of current and future help: Gabriel Gonzalez, OF: The highly-rated outfield prospect is the centerpiece of the deal for the Twins, coming off an impressive season at Single-A. But he's only 20 and at least a couple of years away from making an impact. Anthony DeSclafani, SP: The veteran right-hander is coming off back-to-back seasons lost to injury, but has been a solid starter over the course of his career with a 4.20 ERA and 4.16 WHIP in nearly 1,000 innings pitched. Seattle is covering $8 million of his $12 million salary. Justin Topa, RP: Was a quality contributor in the Mariners bullpen last year, posting a 2.61 ERA over 69 innings while pitching in a lot of key spots. The 32-year-old righty didn't have much of a preceding track record, so the Twins will hope he can sustain the breakout. Darren Bowen, SP/RP: Lotto ticket on a Single-A arm with some upside. He was drafted last summer and pitched in A-ball. Sending out Polanco fully clears space for Edouard Julien to become The Guy at second base, with Kyle Farmer likely factoring in against left-handers. The door is also now open for Brooks Lee to potentially arrive midseason. While Polo is a good player, it's not hard to see the logic in trading him. At the same time, fans cannot be blamed for being underwhelmed by the immediate return. A couple of prospects who might make an impact for a few years? A reliever who's had one good season? A salary-dump starter? In isolation, this move arguably didn't do much to upgrade the 2024 Twins. But the front office was adamant that the money saved in this deal will be redirected to upgrades elsewhere, and they wasted little time. Santana Slides Into the Mix On Friday night, the Twins reached agreement with first baseman Carlos Santana on a one-year deal worth $5.25 million. The accomplished switch-hitter enters the mix alongside Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda at first base, and will also likely rotate through the DH position. Renowned for his patience, Santana adds another tough AB to the lineup, and figures to mainly be used as a weapon against left-handed pitchers. He's been a consistent producer over the course of his 14-year career but seems to offer little upside coming off an average year at age 37. With that said, the Twins will take his veteran stability and experience, as well as his renowned patience at the plate in a lineup featuring many aggressive swingers. DeSclafani Steps in as Presumptive Fifth Starter The 33-year-old right-hander has been tabbed as the presumptive fifth starter, with the team signaling that they now view the rotation as a finished product. As we've learned, it's wise not to always take their stated intentions at face value, but if true this would be very disappointing. The Twins set out this offseason with a goal of replacing the frontline talent they lost in Sonny Gray. The mission was to add another playoff-caliber starter. Settling for DeSclafani at the back of the rotation would be a glaring admission of failure. Don't get me wrong, I think he could be fine in that role, if healthy. He's a strike-thrower who can get through five or six innings on a fairly regular basis. But DeSclafani missed a bunch of time last year with an elbow flexor strain and received a PRP injection. The Twins don't exactly have a great track record acquiring pitchers with known arm concerns. (See: Chris Paddack and Tyler Mahle.) Even if he can get past the elbow issue, DeSclafani is far from a lock to provide more than Louie Varland can in the fifth spot. Waiver Churn: Duarte In, Jensen Out On Friday the Twins claimed right-handed reliever Daniel Duarte off waivers, making room on the 40-man roster by waiving fellow righty reliever Ryan Jensen. The Rangers may have been trying to sneak Duarte through waivers shortly after acquiring him from Cincinnati for cash considerations. Now the Twins might try to do the same with Jensen, who himself was added via waivers about a month ago. It'd be great if the Twins could keep a few arms like this stashed at Triple-A. The 27-year-old Duarte, like Jensen and many others found on the waiver wire, has intriguing traits but is held back by control problems. Current Opening Day Roster and Payroll Projection The sum result of trading Polanco, getting back DeSclafani and Topa (plus $8M), and signing Santana is that the Twins are, payroll-wise, pretty much exactly where they were before all of the moves. Their payroll is right at $120 million, which is on the lowest end of the suggested range of cuts according to early-offseason reports. Are they done? It seems unlikely. There's buzz of more action on the way, with a right-handed outfielder being the most obvious area of need at the moment. Perhaps the news of a TV deal, eliminating some of their revenue uncertainties for the coming season, will enable them to start pushing a little bit from their current position. If they're willing to go to $130 million, which is where loosely start our expectations, there's still another $10 million or so to spend. Let's hear your thoughts on the latest moves and where the front office should go next. View full article

And the big knock on Soto from almost every evaluator was the limited data. It was really hard to get eyes on him outside of these showcases. So eager to actually see him in games!

Rarely have the Twins invested draft capital in a high school pitcher like they did with Charlee Soto, who received a $2.5 million bonus as the 34th overall pick last summer. It's easy to see why the club is enamored with the big righty and his projectable upside, even if we've yet to see him pitch professionally. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Age: 18 (DOB: 8/31/2005) 2023 Stats: Did not pitch ETA: 2027 2023 Ranking: NR National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR What's To Like At the time he was drafted last year, Charlee Soto was still only 17 years old, making him one of the youngest pitchers in the class. Despite his youth, the prep star out of Florida already has plenty of advanced traits. His physical maturity and velocity are what really stand out. By the time he finished high school, Soto was already 6-foot-3 and over 200 lbs. His teenage growth spurt compelled the pitcher and shortstop to abandon his ambitions of being a two-way player, but his size helped him unlock new levels of heat on the mound. "As his position solidified, so did his work in the weight room and he added significant muscle, especially in his lower half," wrote Melissa Lockard in a pre-draft profile on Soto for The Athletic. "He also took on a six-month program focused on ensuring the health and strength of his scapula." The work he put in helped Soto's fastball velocity jump into the upper-90s. "He’s a power pitcher, through and through," said Lockard, "with a circle changeup that sits in the mid- to high-80s and a sharp slider." Keith Law, who ranked Soto as the fourth-best prep pitcher in the draft, rated all three as plus pitches, complimenting the changeup's "hard, fading action." "Ten years ago I would have argued for him as a top-10 pick," said Law, "but the history of high school pitchers works against him." What's Left To Work On The "history of high school pitchers" that Law referenced is what keeps optimism around Soto somewhat tempered, and is also what has generally kept Minnesota from taking these kinds of high-stakes gambles. Projecting pitchers from such a young age is exceedingly difficult. The flame-out rate is high, even for those who look like slam-dunks coming into the draft. Kohl Stewart is one example of the downside from recent Twins history. There's much to like about Soto based on what we've seen from the showcases, what we've heard from the scouts, and what we've read about his commitment to the game. Until he actually steps on a professional mound and performs, none of that means a whole lot. Soto needs to prove he can physically withstand through the rigors of a pro regimen, and that his stuff will play against pro hitters. Those are no givens, for anyone, although the strength-building work he's done and the standout quality of his stuff make Soto a great bet to hit the ground running this year. What's Next It will be very interesting to see how the organization handles Soto from a usage and workload standpoint. On the one hand, they've grown increasingly conservative about pushing minor-league arms in general; their most prominent prep pitching prospect, Marco Raya, has seen his workload strictly capped since being drafted. (Though he still managed to reach Double-A by age 20.) On the other hand, among Soto's most appealing traits were his "traditional starter's build" and all of the groundwork he's laid to be a durable workhorse type arm. It would come as no surprise if the Twins start slow with Soto and let him dictate his own pace. Extended spring training and rookie ball could be in his near future. If the right-hander spends a decent chunk of the 2024 season at Single-A, that would be a huge step, and could put easily put him in the mix as the system's top pitching prospect, if not one of the better ones in all of baseball. We just need to see it. Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown 20. Zebby Matthews, RHP 19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 18. Ricardo Olivar, OF 17. Connor Prielipp, LHP 16. Matt Canterino, RHP 15. Yunior Severino, 1B 14. Danny De Andrade, SS 13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP 12. Kala'i Rosario, OF 11. Luke Keaschall, 2B 10. Tanner Schobel, 2B 9. Brandon Winokur, OF 8. Charlee Soto, RHP Check back on Monday when we reveal our No. 7 prospect! For now, let's hear your thoughts about Soto and what this season will hold for him. View full article

The next installment in our annual spring countdown of top Twins prospects brings a balanced mix, with five different positions represented and plenty of 2023 breakthroughs to be excited about. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo Before you ask: no, you won't find Darren Bowen or Gabriel González in this piece. We'll enfold them into this process by giving them their own breakdown posts, and reveal their rankings within the system in due time. For now, we're sticking to the ranking we created by polling our top minor-league writers. 15. Yunior Severino, 1B Age: 24 2023 Stats (AA/AAA): 528 PA, .272/.352/.546, 35 HR, 84 RBI Severino really has only one standout tool: hitting for power. He's not fast, he's not good defensively, and he's not very disciplined at the plate. But when the 24-year-old switch-hitter gets a hold of a pitch, he can absolutely clobber it. Last year, he led the minors with 35 home runs between Double A and Triple A. One of his homers in late July was measured at 485 feet. Pure power as an isolated skill isn't valued the way it once was, meaning the slugging prospect is less in-demand than he might've been in the past. But the Twins still saw fit to add him to their 40-man roster this offseason, after previously leaving him exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Evidently, their confidence in his ability to play a future role has grown. 14. Danny De Andrade, SS Age: 19 2023 Stats (A): 475 PA, .244/.354/.396, 11 HR, 67 RBI De Andrade is pretty much the opposite of Severino: an assortment of intriguing tools, but still fairly raw and undeveloped. Making his full-season debut in 2023, he held his own in a tough FSL pitching environment while flashing a combination of solid power, speed and patience. He's always had a knack for making contact, but now the infielder is increasingly starting to drive the ball with authority, which is encouraging to see. Turning 20 in April, the righty hitter is filling out his 5-foot-11 frame, and while he has mostly played shortstop so far, it's considered likely he will move to third at some point along the way. 13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP Age: 22 2023 Stats (A/A+): 86 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 Derek Falvey and the Twins have built their pitching pipeline around arms in the same mold as Culpepper: mid-round draft picks who flew somewhat under the radar in college, but saw an immediate boost in stuff after joining the Twins organization. The 2022 13th-rounder was unleashed at Low A and carved up FSL hitters before moving up to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he mostly pitched well but struggled in his last few outings. Wearing down late in the season was a concerning sign from Culpepper, whose ability to stick in a starting role was a question mark when he was in college. But his strong performance and sharp sinking fastball have quickly established him as one of the system's most promising pitching projects. In 21 starts between two levels of A-ball last year, Culpepper allowed only four home runs. 12. Kala'i Rosario, OF Age: 21 2023 Stats (A+): 530 PA, .252/.364/.467, 21 HR, 94 RBI The bar is high offensively for Rosario to become an impact player, because he's already on the low end of the defensive spectrum: a right fielder with underwhelming range who may ultimately be best suited as a designated hitter. So far, though, the Hawaii native has hit at every level, and he's coming off a breakthrough campaign at Cedar Rapids that earned him Midwest League MVP honors. The right-handed slugger launched 27 home runs to lead that league in the regular season, then hit seven more bombs in 25 games at the Arizona Fall League, and also won the AFL Home Run Derby. Rosario's got a big prove-it year ahead at Double A, but his production up to this point and his improving patience make him impossible to ignore on the prospect radar. The future fit would be especially nice if his righty bat can emerge in the mix alongside lefty-swinging outfield and DH options like Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach and Emmanuel Rodriguez--plus the newcomer, González. (Coincidental side note: Before the Twins drafted him out of high school in 2020, Rosario was committed to play at Cal Baptist, where he'd have been a teammate of ... C.J. Culpepper.) 11. Luke Keaschall, 2B Age: 21 2023 Stats (Rk/A/A+): 140 PA, .288/.414/.478, 3 HR, 15 RBI The California native developed a strong hitting rep during his time in college and as a fixture in the Cape Cod League. He transferred from the University of San Francisco to Arizona State as a junior and blew up, hitting 18 home runs with a 1.168 OPS to convince Minnesota to draft him 49th overall last summer. A righty-hitting infielder who profiles best at second, Keaschall excelled offensively in his first exposure to the pro ranks, posting a .414 OBP across three quick stops in rookie ball and Low A. He drew 19 walks against 25 strikeouts, showcasing his vaunted control of the zone, and also went 11-for-11 on steals. There are strong "feel for the game" vibes with this one. As Jamie Cameron wrote for us recently, Keaschall also put up impressive and exciting batted-ball data along the way. So far, the 21-year-old looks like everything you'd want from a second-round pick. Proving he can hit for some power as he progresses will be key to cracking the Top 10 on this list. Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown 20. Zebby Matthews, RHP 19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 18. Ricardo Olivar, OF 17. Connor Prielipp, LHP 16. Matt Canterino, RHP 15. Yunior Severino, 1B 14. Danny De Andrade, SS 13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP 12. Kala'i Rosario, OF 11. Luke Keaschall, 2B View full article

I mean, it's not like it hasn't translated to results. Sano had the third-highest slugging percentage in Twins history. Gallo has three 35+ homer seasons.

Former general manager Terry Ryan and longtime coaching staff staple Rick Stelmaszek will be enshrined this summer. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Last year, the Twins inducted Joe Mauer into their team Hall of Fame, one year ahead of his formal induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. This year, he will be followed into the franchise's honorary club by the general manager who drafted him, and a man who coached Mauer during a large portion of his playing career. Terry Ryan overtook the GM reins from Andy MacPhail in 1994, with big shoes to fill after the Twins won a pair of World Series under his predecessor. Ryan spent several years rebuilding Minnesota into a contender and oversaw a flourishing decade in the 2000s, which saw the team win six division titles in nine years. Ryan's front office made many key moves and decisions to fuel this success, including the call to draft Mauer No. 1 overall in 2001. Other memorable moments for TR included the Johan Santana acquisition, the A.J. Pierzynski trade, and the deadline deal for Shannon Stewart in 2003. Ryan sat in the general manager's chair in Minnesota from '94 to 2016, with a hiatus from 2008 through 2011 during which he stepped down and Bill Smith took over. Terry Ryan is viewed in the game as a legendary scout, and also one of the most kind, honest, straightforward baseball executives to come around over the years. The time he gave to people covering the team, including lowly bloggers like ourselves, will not be forgotten. Rick Stelmaszek was a coach in the Twins organization for 32 consecutive years, starting all the back in 1980. Serving mostly as a catching coach or bullpen coach, "Stelly" worked under five different managers, including Tom Kelly during both of the World Series teams. He was a franchise institution up until the team parted ways with him in 2012. Stelmaszek passed away from pancreatic cancer in November of 2017 at the age of 69, so this will be a posthumous tribute to a man who was beloved by all who encountered him in the Twins organization. The Minnesota Twins 2024 Hall of Fame ceremony will take place on August 11th at Target Field. View full article

Two of the most prolific whiffers in major-league history, both of whom are very familiar to Twins fans, signed with new teams this week. Both nearly a decade removed from debuting in the majors, their continuing careers show that Minnesota is not alone in valuing prodigious power-hitting ability – even when it comes attached to an egregious strikeout rate. Image courtesy of Sam Navarro and Jay Biggerstaff–USA Today Sports Both Miguel Sanó and Joey Gallo made their major-league debuts in 2015. Since then, no other player has been given as much leash while striking out as much as these two. Among hitters with 2,000 or more plate appearances in the past nine years, Gallo ranks No. 1 in strikeout rate at 37.9 percent. Sano is right behind him with the second-highest rate at 36.4 percent. These are the Sultans of Swing-and-Miss. Despite striking out at historic clips, they've combined to play more than 1,500 games in the big leagues. Not only that, but they have three All-Star appearances between them. And now, at a time where it would be easy for anyone to look at the recent track records and write them off, both are getting another shot. On Tuesday, both former Twins sluggers latched on with new teams. Gallo got a $5 million, one-year deal with the Washington Nationals. Sanó signed a minor-league contract with the Angels, and will compete for a job in spring training. Twins fans have seen how poorly it can go with these two when they're not doing anything well to offset the K parade. In fact, those are our lingering final memories of both. Gallo had a nice start last year but become progressively unusable, to the point where he didn't come close to sniffing a postseason AB. Sanó batted .083 with a .345 OPS in 71 PAs during his final stint with the Twins, an injury-wrecked 2022 campaign. No team was interested in bringing him aboard last year. But it also needs to be acknowledged what comes along with these staggering strikeout propensities: power that registers a flat-out elite scale. And not just raw power but proven in-game power. While Gallo and Sanó rank first and second in K-rate since 2015, they also rank ninth and fifth, respectively, in average exit velocity during that span. You might say, exit velocity? Who cares. Can't be a terribly meaningful metric if those guys are up near the top of the leaderboard. But, these are the other seven names in the top nine: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Nelson Cruz, Matt Olson and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Talk about powerful company. None of the aforementioned sluggers strike out like Gallo and Sanó, which is why those two haven't approached the same MVP-caliber levels of overall production. But their offensive impact is real, and it can be game-changing. We saw it when Sanó obliterated the league for four months in 2019 or when Gallo launched 38 jacks as recently as 2021. And, for all the talk about these strikeouts presenting massive downside and bust potential, that isn't really born out statistically. Anyone who followed the Twins last year can tell you Gallo was beyond bad almost all season long, incapable of doing anything other htan launching a very occasional homer. Yet he finished with an above-average OPS. Sanó has posted an above-average OPS every season where he's made 300-plus plate appearances. Power with a little patience plays. Even when it comes attached to unprecedented levels of striking out. That's why we see Gallo and Sanó getting these chances despite both looking cooked the last time they were on a major-league field. Yes, this is a skill set that tends to degrade quickly, and it's possible they've both simply lost it age 30. Thus the low-stakes investments from two teams coming off 90-loss seasons. But 30 isn't that old, and rarefied power like that is worth betting on. Having said that, most Twins fans are surely not disappointed to see Gallo and Sano take their reclamation journeys elsewhere. Even if Minnesota remains committed to an approach that prioritizes power at the expense of contact, it will be nice to see this plan in action without one of the all-time strikeout kings in the mix, pushing the offense toward a ridiculous extreme. View full article

A big reason Hall of Famer Joe Mauer was often underrated during his career was a collective failure to understand the value of a catcher who can hit, field and stay healthy. The decade since Mauer moved away from the position, however, has perfectly exemplified how hard it is to find quality two-way catchers. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Steven Bisig, Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Around this time 10 years ago, veteran Joe Mauer was preparing to report for spring training with a new twist: he was now a first baseman, no longer a catcher. Before a fateful concussion in 2013 forced his position switch, Mauer had been Minnesota's Opening Day catcher in nine of the 10 past years. (The lone exception: his MVP-winning 2009 season, where he got a late start due to injury.) In 10 years since Mauer's catching career ended, the Twins have had five different Opening Day starters at the position, with more than a dozen others making appearances. There have been some flashes of success and entertaining moments (La Tortuga!), but none of these catchers have come close to matching the durability, stability, or value that Mauer provided throughout his decade-long run behind the plate. Reflecting on how difficult Mauer has been to replace helps contextualize just how special he really was. Let's take a tour through Minnesota's catching carousel. We'll start by running it back to 2014, the start of the post-Mauer era. As a setup, here's a quick look at Mauer's fWAR, and the team's league-wide rank in catching fWAR, for each of his 10 seasons at catcher. 2004: 1.2 fWAR (Twins 20th in MLB) 2005: 3.4 fWAR (Twins 3rd in MLB) 2006: 5.8 fWAR (Twins 1st in MLB) 2007: 3.3 fWAR (Twins 4th in MLB) 2008: 6.4 fWAR (Twins 3rd in MLB) 2009: 8.4 fWAR (Twins 2nd in MLB) 2010: 5.7 fWAR (Twins 3rd in MLB) 2011: 2.1 fWAR (Twins 26th in MLB) 2012: 4.6 fWAR (Twins 16th in MLB) 2013: 5.2 fWAR (Twins 6th in MLB) Six straight years under Mauer, the Twins were a top five team for value from the catcher position. As we'll see, it's a level they've rarely been able to approach without him, although their current setup shows promise. 2014 Season (Twins 28th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Kurt Suzuki (115 catching starts, -0.1 fWAR) Needing to address the catcher position for the first time since Mauer arrived in 2004, the Twins signed Suzuki to a one-year, $2.8-million contract and made him their primary catcher. Suzuki was well-liked and actually made the All-Star team by batting .309 in the first half, but his empty, inflated batting average overstated his offensive impact, and he rated out very poorly on defense. Immediately after getting a 5.2-fWAR season from Mauer in his final year as a catcher, the Twins got a sub-replacement level season from his replacement. Other Catchers to Appear: Coming into 2014, there was some optimism around prospect Josmil Pinto as a potential long-term successor to Mauer, but that evaporated as the club get a better look at his limited defensive skills and athleticism. He made 26 starts and wasn't heard from again in Minnesota. Fringy veteran Eric Fryer also made 21 starts. 2015 (Twins 29th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Kurt Suzuki (123 catching starts, -1.0 fWAR) With Pinto falling out of the plans and no other compelling options emerging in the system, Terry Ryan made the dubious decision to double-down on Suzuki, who got a two-year extension midway through his first season with the Twins. In 2015, there was no magical first half and Suzuki was terrible all year long, ranking last among the league's catchers in fWAR. He still received more than three-quarters of the team's starts at the position. Other Catchers to Appear: Chris Herrmann served as Suzuki's primary backup, making 32 starts at catcher, but would be traded to Arizona for Daniel Palka in the ensuing offseason. Fryer made seven starts in his final season with Minnesota. 2016 (Twins 28th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Kurt Suzuki (92 catching starts, 0.0 fWAR) This was, mercifully, the final year of Suzuki dragging Minnesota's catching unit down to the league's dregs. Yet another campaign in which he failed to elevate above replacement level. During the previous offseason, the Twins had tried to chart a new future course at catcher by dealing Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy. The move backfired horribly and was one of Ryan's final missteps, speeding the end of his tenure as GM. Other Catchers to Appear: Murphy made only 23 starts behind the plate, posting a miserable .403 OPS in his lone stint as a Twin. Minor-league journeyman Juan Centeno got a whopping 47 starts at catcher and posted a -0.9 fWAR. I must admit I completely forgot about his existence before researching this piece. 2017 (Twins 11th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Jason Castro (104 catching starts, 2.1 fWAR) Improving the state of the catcher position was Priority No. 1 for Derek Falvey and the new Twins front office. The regime was barely settling in when they targeted and signed Jason Castro to a three-year deal in November 2016. Castro immediately stabilized the position as desired, putting up solid offense (93 OPS+) and quality defense to produce the highest WAR by a Twins catcher since Mauer's move. Other Catchers to Appear: Chris Gimenez stepped in as Castro's primary backup, starting 54 games and making a career-high 225 plate appearances. Meanwhile, a prospect named Mitch Garver debuted, making several appearances and four starts at the end of a stellar Triple-A season to plant his flag. 2018 (Twins 17th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Jason Castro (19 catching starts, 0.0 fWAR) The Twins opened the season with hopes of Castro leading a timeshare with Garver, but Castro would soon go down with an injury and miss most of the year. This opened the door for Garver to step up and prove his legitimacy; he led the team with 75 catching starts and slashed .268/.335/.414. Because his defense didn't grade out well, however, he was only worth 0.4 WAR in 103 games. Other Catchers to Appear: Another veteran journeyman, Bobby Wilson (remember him?), took over as the token glove-first veteran while Castro was down. He made 45 starts, posting a hideous 45 OPS+ but providing solid defense. Meanwhile, a novelty act by the name of Willians Astudillo first showed up, capturing the attention of fans by batting .355 during a late-season MLB debut. Gimenez and Juan Graterol made final appearances as Twins. We can't forget that Mauer himself also appeared at catcher near the end of this season, receiving exactly one pitch in a tearful send-off. 2019 (Twins 3rd in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Jason Castro (72 catching starts, 1.7 fWAR) For one glorious season, the Twins returned to being one of the elite teams in baseball at the catcher position. Castro helped by providing solid stability in the last year of his contract, but the standout success here was mostly driven by a breakout from Garver, who led the team in catching starts (73) and produced 3.9 fWAR thanks to a prodigious offensive explosion: .273/.365/.630, with 31 homers in 359 plate appearances. His .404 wOBA in 2019 was a mark that Mauer only bested once, in his MVP 2009 season. Other Catchers to Appear: This was a generally healthy season for the catching corps. Garver and Castro combined to cover 145 of the team's starts behind the plate, with Astudillo taking the other 17. 2020 (Twins 14th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Mitch Garver (19 catching starts, -0.1 fWAR) Garver was ready to take over as the Twins' No. 1 catcher. At least, that was the hope. The Twins signed free agent Alex Avila to form a platoon and hopefully carry forward the club's catching success from 2019. Unfortunately, both were struck by injuries and combined for replacement-level production, but Ryan Jeffers salvaged the unit with his excellent rookie campaign. Thus, a new hope had arrived on the scene. Other Catchers to Appear: The trio of Garver, Avila and Jeffers split the catching load almost evenly during the abbreviated COVID season (19/19/18) with Astudillo making the other four. 2021 (Twins 9th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Mitch Garver (53 catching starts, 2.2 fWAR) Between Garver and Jeffers, the Twins were in good shape with two starting-caliber catchers heading into the 2021 season. The Opening Day starter, Garver, bounced back with a productive campaign (.256/.358/.517 in 68 games) but once again struggled to stay healthy. Jeffers ended up getting the bulk of starts behind the plate (77) but his performance regressed as he posted a .289 wOBA (down from .346 as a rookie) and 0.7 fWAR. Other Catchers to Appear: Rounding out Minnesota's homegrown catching corps was Ben Rortvedt, who made 28 starts at catcher as a glove-only backup. La Tortuga made four more starts in his last hurrah as a Twin. 2022 (Twins 15th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Ryan Jeffers (56 catching starts, 0.9 fWAR) Despite his regression in 2021, the Twins placed their full confidence in Jeffers as the club's future at catcher, trading both Garver and Rortvedt away in the offseason. Their faith was not rewarded; Jeffers got hurt and his bat failed to rebound when on the field. The absence of Jeffers for much of the summer left Gary Sánchez as the leading backstop (80 starts), and it wasn't pretty. Sánchez did (surprisingly) grade out okay defensively to produce a respectable 1.2 fWAR, keeping Minnesota's catching corps in the middle of the pack. Other Catchers to Appear: This season was a reminder of how desperate teams can get when high-level catching depth erodes. Left to lean on Sánchez as their starter, the Twins acquired another no-hit veteran minor-leaguer in Sandy Léon and gave him 22 starts. A handful also went to Caleb Hamilton (3) and José Godoy (1). 2023 (Twins 9th in MLB) Opening Day Catcher: Christian Vázquez (91 catching starts, 1.0 fWAR) By last winter, the Twins recognized that maybe Jeffers wasn't going to be the guy, coming off back-to-back seasons plagued by injuries and poor production. As such, they went uncharacteristically big in free agency, signing Vázquez to a three-year, $30-million deal. Still believers in Jeffers, they likely hoped that over time, the starter-backup dynamic would shift. It happened quickly, as Vázquez slumped offensively all year while Jeffers emerged as one of the league's best-hitting catchers. Other Catchers to Appear: Not one. With both Vázquez and Jeffers staying remarkably healthy all year, the Twins never needed to call on a third catcher in 2023. 10 Years After Mauer: The Outlook Going Forward Joe Mauer's career at catcher was defined by unparalleled stability behind the plate. The argument about his shortened prime gained no traction in the Hall of Fame discussion, because voters recognized: At this position, 10 years of consistently elite play is an eternity. Given the resource scarcity, finding a capable starting catcher is enough of a struggle--as the Twins have learned. They've cycled through a lot of different backstops since Mauer, rarely capturing even glimpses of the impact he brought. (Garver in 2019 was the closest, but like so many at catcher, he just couldn't overcome the durability hurdles.) As we look ahead to 2024, though, there's reason to feel optimism about what lies ahead at the catcher position. Ryan Jeffers had a breakout season, and fully regained the team's confidence, as illustrated by his postseason usage. Vázquez didn't hit but was a steady, trusted defensive presence. I suspect the continuity and rapport of this duo played an underrated role in the team's pitching success. Their ninth-ranked fWAR at the position in 2023 probably understates what a relative strength the catcher position was for Minnesota. Thus, I'm not keen on breaking up the position to dump salary. Jeffers is ready to take the reins, coming off a 134 OPS+ in his age-26 season. I'll take this opportunity to note that Mauer also posted a 134 OPS+ in his age-26 season, and followed up with an MVP campaign in his age-27 season (171 OPS+). That's not meant to overset expectations, but the point is that Jeffers is entering his true prime and has shown the rare ability to star on both sides. It's why I view him as one of the organization's most prized assets. Meanwhile, Jeffers has a quality veteran partner alongside him in Vázquez, who would basically be a league-average starter in his own right. Both are under control for multiple years, leaving the Twins in the best shape they've been behind the plate since Mauer's Hall of Fame run reached an end. View full article

The Twins made another waiver claim on Wednesday, but this time, it's not a bullpen project. Instead, they're gaining some outfield depth and dynamic athleticism with the addition of speedy Bubba Thompson. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Outfielder Bubba Thompson was designated for assignment by the Yankees last week when they made the signing of free agent righthander Luke Weaver official. Five days later, the Twins have added him using one of their open 40-man roster spots. Thompson is a 25-year-old former first-round draft pick, selected by the Rangers 26th overall back in 2017. (That was the first season after Thad Levine left the Texas front office to join the Twins, in case you were curious.) After rising through the minor-league ranks, he made 181 plate appearances for the Rangers in 2022, slashing .265/.302/.312, and then saw a brief 37-game stint last year, posting a .520 OPS in 60 plate appearances. The Rangers designated him for assignment last August, and since then, he's passed through three organizations -- Kansas City, Cincinnati, and New York -- before landing with the Twins. Thompson's turbulent journey up to this point should probably serve as an indicator that his spot on Minnesota's roster is not terribly secure, but he's viewed as an intriguing player, and it's easy to see why the Twins would see him as a fit. The righty-swinging outfielder's calling card is, and always has been, his speed. He has chart-topping wheels at the prime Byron Buxton/Billy Hamilton level, registering a 100th-percentile sprint speed last season. He's 22-for-27 on stolen base attempts in the majors and went 150-for-181 (82.8%) as a prospect. The bat has obviously been less impressive, and his poor discipline makes it tough to see much upside there, but as a bench player, he could potentially fill a valuable role. Thompson has mostly played left field in the majors but has the speed and range to play center, where he's logged 2,500 innings in the minors. It's probably fair to describe him as a very poor man's Michael A. Taylor, with the potential for a little more if he can turn a corner in his late 20s. Thompson could profile as a potential part-time solution to the Twins' gap in center field this year, along with Buxton, Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin. Or he could just be a temporary pickup since they have an open spot on the 40-man roster, perhaps until they bring in a more complete solution, like Taylor, who remains a free agent. What are your thoughts on this pickup? Do you think Thompson can stick on the roster through spring training and maybe win an Opening Day spot? View full article