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The Minnesota Twins played a bunch of very close games last week. Even when you're going well, that can be a dangerous dance, as they learned in suffering three straight one-run losses that sullied an otherwise strong stretch and widened their division deficit behind the unstoppable Cleveland Guardians. Image courtesy of Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/17 through Sun, 6/23 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 43-35) Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +25) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 73 | MIN 7, TB 6: Santana Delivers Pinch-Hit Walk-Off Single Game 74 | TB 3, MIN 2: Lewis Homers, But Error in 10th Proves Costly Game 75 | TB 7, MIN 6: Twins Fall in Extras Again Despite Miranda Magic Game 76 | OAK 6, MIN 5: Duran Blows Lead in Another One-Run Loss Game 77 | MIN 10, OAK 2: Offense Takes Off as Ober Cruises to CG Game 78 | MIN 3, OAK 0: López Electric, Buck Bashes in Victory IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES Jay Jackson, we hardly knew ye. Again. The team's decision to recall Jackson and re-add him to the 40-man roster, such a short time after designating him for assignment with a 6.85 ERA, was curious. Barely a week after returning to the fold, the veteran right-hander was DFA'ed once again, allowing five earned runs and three homers in four innings during his latest stint. There was little reason to expect much different from Jackson this time around, given that his untenable velocity was lower, not higher, during his brief time at Triple-A. Cycling back to him was a strange call by the front office, and a costly one: Jackson coughed up three runs in Thursday's 7-6 loss to Tampa before being sent out. Brought back to fill Jackson's vacant spot was Kody Funderburk, giving the Twins three lefties in the bullpen, for now. The relief corps is in a bit of a fluid state with Caleb Thielbar and his 7.71 ERA still on the roster, albeit now reserved for the lowest-leverage situations possible. Brock Stewart, who's been on the injured list since the beginning of May, still has no return date in sight. At the beginning of last week, Alex Kirilloff joined Stewart on the IL following an odd turn of events. The Twins had previously announced they were optioning Kirilloff to Triple-A, but reversed that decision when it was revealed that the struggling 26-year-old was dealing with a back injury, which apparently had not been communicated well. Not a great look. It's unclear what the timeline is for AK to get back on the field, but he'll surely do so in St. Paul when he's ready. HIGHLIGHTS Royce Lewis might as well build a home in this section of our weekly recap; it doesn't look like he'll be going anywhere. The third baseman amusingly claimed "slumps aren't a real thing for me" last week while somehow managing to keep on backing up that ridiculous notion. Not only has Lewis avoided lapsing into anything resembling a slump, but he keeps on crushing home runs and tracking toward the best start to a career in franchise history. After starting both ends of last Sunday's doubleheader, Lewis got the nod in all six of Minnesota's games last week, another highly encouraging sign for his health. He started three times at third and three times at DH, finishing 7-for-25 with three more homers. Lewis received his first intentional walk of the season on Wednesday but it probably won't be his last. Carlos Correa cooled down a bit following one of the best weeks in his career, but still managed to produce a pair of three-hit games, doubling and walking twice with just three strikeouts. Willi Castro remains an everyday force in the lineup, wherever he's playing defensively: he went 9-for-24 with five doubles and a big three-run homer. Carlos Santana has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball this month, and kept on clicking with an 8-for-21 week that included two doubles and a home run. José Miranda went 7-for-22 with two doubles, as well as a home run that could've been one of the biggest of the season for the Twins: a game-tying three-run shot while down to their last strike on Thursday. Unfortunately, his teammates couldn't get it done in an extra-innings loss. Miranda has the second-best OPS on the team behind Correa this season, and has been nothing short of a godsend for the lineup. While I wouldn't necessarily call him a godsend, Austin Martin has been a heck of an addition since replacing Kirilloff on the roster. I wondered about his functional redundancy with Manuel Margot, but Martin has proven plenty useful. He found his way into five of six games last week, starting four, and went 6-for-14 with three walks, two steals and four runs scored. At a time where every remotely non-essential position player on the Twins roster needs to be continually justifying his spot, with a few hitters loudly making their cases in Triple-A, Martin is among those answering the call, and so is Margot. It's been awesome to see all these bats come alive. Also worth filing under "awesome to see": Bailey Ober's dazzling performance on Saturday in Oakland. It's been a bumpy ride this year for the big righty, who was hoping to take the next step atop the Twins rotation, but he's been dialed in for his past two turns against Oakland, lowering his ERA from 5.13 to 4.50 on the season. In his latest start he put together one of the most efficient complete games you'll ever see, working around a pair of solo homers to get through nine innings of two-run ball with 10 strikeouts on just 89 pitches. After setting a season high with 16 swings and misses in his previous start, Ober got 20 whiffs in this one. Granted, both these outings came against a fairly poor A's lineup, but not every Twins pitcher has looked so effective against Oakland. Exciting stuff from Ober. On Sunday, Pablo López followed up on Ober's statement start with a big one of his own, putting together one of the most dominant performances of his career against the Athletics. With his fastball touching 97 MPH, López struck out 14 hitters over eight shutout innings, holding Oakland's lineup to one walk and pair of singles. López had struggled in his first start of the week, allowing five earned runs in four innings against Tampa, and he came into Sunday with an 8.49 ERA over his past six starts. So suffice to say, this breakthrough was much-needed, and lovely to see. LOWLIGHTS Chris Paddack is going off the rails in worrisome fashion, and looks to be in need of a break. He made his second consecutive ugly start against the Athletics on Friday night, once again battling with command and diminished stuff. His fastball velocity dropping down to the 90-91 MPH range, and his command wavering, Paddack got through 4 ⅔ innings. He was lucky to allow only three earned runs on five hits and three walks, after failing to get through three frames in his previous home start against Oakland. The right-hander's workload management has been a big topic of conversation, coming off his second Tommy John surgery, and that will only ramp up if his performance continues to trend this way, with a 7.79 ERA in four June starts. Louie Varland, who might've been in line to step in for Paddack in the near future, unfortunately experienced a nightmare outing for the Saints on Sunday, allowing 11 earned runs on five homers in 2 ⅓ innings. Could Varland be rerouted back into a relief role for the second half? It's now worth asking more than ever. His ongoing troubles as a starter seems to call for a change, and the state of the Twins bullpen may also play a role in making the argument. Aside from Griffin Jax, who's been among the league's finest relief arms, it's tough to feel much confidence in Rocco Baldelli's array of options right now. Twins relievers not named Jax allowed nine earned runs in 14 ⅓ innings (5.65 ERA), and the bullpen was tagged with losses in all three games where Minnesota came up short. Granted, they weren't given much margin for error, but these were not the highest-quality opponents. Jhoan Durán's brutal outing on Friday was most concerning of the bunch: Entering to pitch the eighth, he hit leadoff man Tyler Soderstrom with a pitch, then served up a two-run homer on the first pitch to Shea Langeliers, turning a one-run lead into a deficit in the blink of an eye. The command and the stuff continue to lag for Durán, whose xERA is up by more than a run from last year (2.60 to 3.65). His strikeout rate is down a full 10 percentage points, from 32.9% in 2023 (96th percentile) to an average-ish 22.8%. He seems to have minimal trust in his fastball – with good reason, as opponents are hitting .320 with a .403 xwOBA against it – and his overall arsenal just doesn't work that well without the big heater setting the tone. I'm not sure what's to be done about that, if he's indeed healthy, other than keep hoping he can fight his way through these ostensible mechanical issues, perhaps in a relatively lower-leverage role. On that note, it's worth pointing out that Jax, not Durán, got the three-run save opportunity on Sunday. But the Twins don't really have the luxury of using Durán anywhere other than key spots, especially so long as Stewart remains sidelined. TRENDING STORYLINE Big hitters are on deck in St. Paul, and they are waiting for their chances to step up to the plate at Target Field. Last week we talked about the ridiculous run that Matt Wallner has been on for the Saints; he launched two more homers last week, although he also struck out 14 times. It's the top prospect Brooks Lee who is now fiercely knocking on the door for a big-league chance, after going 10-for-22 with three doubles, three home runs and 11 RBIs in five games. Lee has a 1.017 OPS through 14 total games with the Saints, mixing in strong plate discipline and sharp defense around the infield. He made his first start of the season at second base on Thursday, perhaps setting the stage for him to eventually factor in at that position for the Twins. He needs to wait his turn, with the Twins infield thoroughly fortified at the moment. But it's invigorating to see Lee immediately thriving after a two-month absence, and putting himself in position for a debut as soon as the opportunity arises. His presence provides a comforting safety net behind some of Minnesota's most critical pieces. With Correa, Lewis, Miranda and Castro carrying so much of the load offensively, it's really nice to know there's a guy like Lee on hand who could step into any of their roles in the event of an injury. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins will remain out west as their road trip rolls on with stops in Arizona and Seattle. The D-backs are a fairly mediocre sub-.500 team this year following their charmed World Series run in 2023, but the Mariners will present a real test for these Twins, who have played at nearly a 110-win pace outside of their 0-14 record against the three top teams in the American League (NYY, BAL, CLE). Seattle currently leads the AL West with the most wins in the AL outside of those three, so the Twins can buoy the case for their legitimacy with a strong showing against the Mariners, from whom they took two of three at Target Field back in early May. Thursday's game will be the 81st of the season, marking the official halfway point. TUESDAY, JUNE 25: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Brandon Pfaadt WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Ryne Nelson THURSDAY, JUNE 27: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Jordan Montgomery FRIDAY, JUNE 28: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Logan Gilbert SATURDAY, JUNE 29: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Bryce Miller SUNDAY, JUNE 30: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Bryan Woo View full article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/17 through Sun, 6/23 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 43-35) Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +25) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 73 | MIN 7, TB 6: Santana Delivers Pinch-Hit Walk-Off Single Game 74 | TB 3, MIN 2: Lewis Homers, But Error in 10th Proves Costly Game 75 | TB 7, MIN 6: Twins Fall in Extras Again Despite Miranda Magic Game 76 | OAK 6, MIN 5: Duran Blows Lead in Another One-Run Loss Game 77 | MIN 10, OAK 2: Offense Takes Off as Ober Cruises to CG Game 78 | MIN 3, OAK 0: López Electric, Buck Bashes in Victory IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES Jay Jackson, we hardly knew ye. Again. The team's decision to recall Jackson and re-add him to the 40-man roster, such a short time after designating him for assignment with a 6.85 ERA, was curious. Barely a week after returning to the fold, the veteran right-hander was DFA'ed once again, allowing five earned runs and three homers in four innings during his latest stint. There was little reason to expect much different from Jackson this time around, given that his untenable velocity was lower, not higher, during his brief time at Triple-A. Cycling back to him was a strange call by the front office, and a costly one: Jackson coughed up three runs in Thursday's 7-6 loss to Tampa before being sent out. Brought back to fill Jackson's vacant spot was Kody Funderburk, giving the Twins three lefties in the bullpen, for now. The relief corps is in a bit of a fluid state with Caleb Thielbar and his 7.71 ERA still on the roster, albeit now reserved for the lowest-leverage situations possible. Brock Stewart, who's been on the injured list since the beginning of May, still has no return date in sight. At the beginning of last week, Alex Kirilloff joined Stewart on the IL following an odd turn of events. The Twins had previously announced they were optioning Kirilloff to Triple-A, but reversed that decision when it was revealed that the struggling 26-year-old was dealing with a back injury, which apparently had not been communicated well. Not a great look. It's unclear what the timeline is for AK to get back on the field, but he'll surely do so in St. Paul when he's ready. HIGHLIGHTS Royce Lewis might as well build a home in this section of our weekly recap; it doesn't look like he'll be going anywhere. The third baseman amusingly claimed "slumps aren't a real thing for me" last week while somehow managing to keep on backing up that ridiculous notion. Not only has Lewis avoided lapsing into anything resembling a slump, but he keeps on crushing home runs and tracking toward the best start to a career in franchise history. After starting both ends of last Sunday's doubleheader, Lewis got the nod in all six of Minnesota's games last week, another highly encouraging sign for his health. He started three times at third and three times at DH, finishing 7-for-25 with three more homers. Lewis received his first intentional walk of the season on Wednesday but it probably won't be his last. Carlos Correa cooled down a bit following one of the best weeks in his career, but still managed to produce a pair of three-hit games, doubling and walking twice with just three strikeouts. Willi Castro remains an everyday force in the lineup, wherever he's playing defensively: he went 9-for-24 with five doubles and a big three-run homer. Carlos Santana has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball this month, and kept on clicking with an 8-for-21 week that included two doubles and a home run. José Miranda went 7-for-22 with two doubles, as well as a home run that could've been one of the biggest of the season for the Twins: a game-tying three-run shot while down to their last strike on Thursday. Unfortunately, his teammates couldn't get it done in an extra-innings loss. Miranda has the second-best OPS on the team behind Correa this season, and has been nothing short of a godsend for the lineup. While I wouldn't necessarily call him a godsend, Austin Martin has been a heck of an addition since replacing Kirilloff on the roster. I wondered about his functional redundancy with Manuel Margot, but Martin has proven plenty useful. He found his way into five of six games last week, starting four, and went 6-for-14 with three walks, two steals and four runs scored. At a time where every remotely non-essential position player on the Twins roster needs to be continually justifying his spot, with a few hitters loudly making their cases in Triple-A, Martin is among those answering the call, and so is Margot. It's been awesome to see all these bats come alive. Also worth filing under "awesome to see": Bailey Ober's dazzling performance on Saturday in Oakland. It's been a bumpy ride this year for the big righty, who was hoping to take the next step atop the Twins rotation, but he's been dialed in for his past two turns against Oakland, lowering his ERA from 5.13 to 4.50 on the season. In his latest start he put together one of the most efficient complete games you'll ever see, working around a pair of solo homers to get through nine innings of two-run ball with 10 strikeouts on just 89 pitches. After setting a season high with 16 swings and misses in his previous start, Ober got 20 whiffs in this one. Granted, both these outings came against a fairly poor A's lineup, but not every Twins pitcher has looked so effective against Oakland. Exciting stuff from Ober. On Sunday, Pablo López followed up on Ober's statement start with a big one of his own, putting together one of the most dominant performances of his career against the Athletics. With his fastball touching 97 MPH, López struck out 14 hitters over eight shutout innings, holding Oakland's lineup to one walk and pair of singles. López had struggled in his first start of the week, allowing five earned runs in four innings against Tampa, and he came into Sunday with an 8.49 ERA over his past six starts. So suffice to say, this breakthrough was much-needed, and lovely to see. LOWLIGHTS Chris Paddack is going off the rails in worrisome fashion, and looks to be in need of a break. He made his second consecutive ugly start against the Athletics on Friday night, once again battling with command and diminished stuff. His fastball velocity dropping down to the 90-91 MPH range, and his command wavering, Paddack got through 4 ⅔ innings. He was lucky to allow only three earned runs on five hits and three walks, after failing to get through three frames in his previous home start against Oakland. The right-hander's workload management has been a big topic of conversation, coming off his second Tommy John surgery, and that will only ramp up if his performance continues to trend this way, with a 7.79 ERA in four June starts. Louie Varland, who might've been in line to step in for Paddack in the near future, unfortunately experienced a nightmare outing for the Saints on Sunday, allowing 11 earned runs on five homers in 2 ⅓ innings. Could Varland be rerouted back into a relief role for the second half? It's now worth asking more than ever. His ongoing troubles as a starter seems to call for a change, and the state of the Twins bullpen may also play a role in making the argument. Aside from Griffin Jax, who's been among the league's finest relief arms, it's tough to feel much confidence in Rocco Baldelli's array of options right now. Twins relievers not named Jax allowed nine earned runs in 14 ⅓ innings (5.65 ERA), and the bullpen was tagged with losses in all three games where Minnesota came up short. Granted, they weren't given much margin for error, but these were not the highest-quality opponents. Jhoan Durán's brutal outing on Friday was most concerning of the bunch: Entering to pitch the eighth, he hit leadoff man Tyler Soderstrom with a pitch, then served up a two-run homer on the first pitch to Shea Langeliers, turning a one-run lead into a deficit in the blink of an eye. The command and the stuff continue to lag for Durán, whose xERA is up by more than a run from last year (2.60 to 3.65). His strikeout rate is down a full 10 percentage points, from 32.9% in 2023 (96th percentile) to an average-ish 22.8%. He seems to have minimal trust in his fastball – with good reason, as opponents are hitting .320 with a .403 xwOBA against it – and his overall arsenal just doesn't work that well without the big heater setting the tone. I'm not sure what's to be done about that, if he's indeed healthy, other than keep hoping he can fight his way through these ostensible mechanical issues, perhaps in a relatively lower-leverage role. On that note, it's worth pointing out that Jax, not Durán, got the three-run save opportunity on Sunday. But the Twins don't really have the luxury of using Durán anywhere other than key spots, especially so long as Stewart remains sidelined. TRENDING STORYLINE Big hitters are on deck in St. Paul, and they are waiting for their chances to step up to the plate at Target Field. Last week we talked about the ridiculous run that Matt Wallner has been on for the Saints; he launched two more homers last week, although he also struck out 14 times. It's the top prospect Brooks Lee who is now fiercely knocking on the door for a big-league chance, after going 10-for-22 with three doubles, three home runs and 11 RBIs in five games. Lee has a 1.017 OPS through 14 total games with the Saints, mixing in strong plate discipline and sharp defense around the infield. He made his first start of the season at second base on Thursday, perhaps setting the stage for him to eventually factor in at that position for the Twins. He needs to wait his turn, with the Twins infield thoroughly fortified at the moment. But it's invigorating to see Lee immediately thriving after a two-month absence, and putting himself in position for a debut as soon as the opportunity arises. His presence provides a comforting safety net behind some of Minnesota's most critical pieces. With Correa, Lewis, Miranda and Castro carrying so much of the load offensively, it's really nice to know there's a guy like Lee on hand who could step into any of their roles in the event of an injury. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins will remain out west as their road trip rolls on with stops in Arizona and Seattle. The D-backs are a fairly mediocre sub-.500 team this year following their charmed World Series run in 2023, but the Mariners will present a real test for these Twins, who have played at nearly a 110-win pace outside of their 0-14 record against the three top teams in the American League (NYY, BAL, CLE). Seattle currently leads the AL West with the most wins in the AL outside of those three, so the Twins can buoy the case for their legitimacy with a strong showing against the Mariners, from whom they took two of three at Target Field back in early May. Thursday's game will be the 81st of the season, marking the official halfway point. TUESDAY, JUNE 25: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Brandon Pfaadt WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Ryne Nelson THURSDAY, JUNE 27: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Jordan Montgomery FRIDAY, JUNE 28: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Logan Gilbert SATURDAY, JUNE 29: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Bryce Miller SUNDAY, JUNE 30: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Bryan Woo
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There's been buzz around these parts regarding the subject of overrated players, with Carlos Correa's name popping up as such in a recent player poll. That's pretty laughable, as Correa has emphatically underscored with his performance since. But if we want to actually talk about overrated MLB players, there's another name I'd submit, for the sake of making some broader points about modern baseball theory and analysis. (Not to mention Twins fan FOMO.) Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and John Jones-USA TODAY Sports As Cody Christie covered here last week, Carlos Correa's name appeared among the top three for "most overrated player" in a spring player poll conducted by The Athletic. It should be noted that relatively few players opted to answer this question, and Correa came in third with a mere four total votes. Still, his connection with this label does seem to hint at a wider perception gap. In the first round of MLB All-Star voting, released a few days ago, Correa ranked 10th among MLB shortstops. Tenth! For a name with that recognition level, who was having a good season even before the current torrid streak got underway, that is simply wild. Star Tribune columnist LaVelle E. Neal III tweeted last week that "standards haven't been met" by the high-salaried shortstop, demanding more offense from a player who'd been well above average by virtually any metric. As Correa's current rampage got underway, Neal doubled down, even as his own newspaper ran a glowing piece full of clubhouse quotes marveling at Correa's exceptional leadership and culture-shaping impact. It's very weird to see. When healthy, Correa is one of the most well-rounded players in baseball. A defensive whiz at shortstop; a disciplined and consistent offensive threat at the plate. He's among the slower middle infielders you'll come across, but that is literally the only significant mark against him in terms of player profile. He does everything well, on and off the field. Yet so many scribes and fans seem to undervalue him while waxing poetic and reminiscing for the days of a bygone singles hitter, who legitimately does only one thing well. That's right. I'm here to say that Luis Arráez is in fact the most overrated player in baseball, and I continue to believe that the Twins front office executed a master stroke by taking advantage of his inflated valuation to acquire Pablo López. Let's be clear: I'm not saying Arráez is a bad player, by any means. He's won two straight batting titles, and looks to be on his way to a third. He's just a very one-dimensional player. There's obviously value in making contact and hitting singles at an unparalleled rate, but the name of the game is overall production. In this regard, Arráez amounts to a pretty average player. Consider this: while Arráez is hitting a robust .318, his OPS (.733) is 13 points lower than that of Carlos Santana (.746), whose batting average is just .239. Minnesota's 38-year-old scrap-heap free agent signee has a significantly higher fWAR (1.1) than Arráez (0.7), who would rank 10th among Twins position players in that metric. You might feel WAR is overrated. You might feel Arráez's contact-oriented production is preferable to more of a walk-driven OBP and power-fueled OPS. I can buy into those beliefs, to some extent. But production is production, and there's really no argument for Arráez being vastly more productive than Santana (as one example), especially when you account for the chasm in defense. Your mileage may vary when it comes to fielding stats, but it's plain to the eye test that Santana is a good defender and Arráez is a very poor one, who costs his team runs. That has to be factored in. But seemingly, it's not. Arráez is currently the leader in All-Star votes at second base for the National League, edging Ketel Marte -- who's been immensely better through any lens other than batting average -- by 7,000 votes. I'm sorry, but that's the definition of overrated. And Correa ranking 10th among AL shortstops, behind Zach Neto and J.P. Crawford, is the definition of underrated. While I'm sure many will interpret it as one, this is not intended as a hit piece on Luis Arráez. I love Arráez! He's one of the most likable players around, and his style of play is enjoyable to me. It was awesome that Correa recently credited conversations with Arráez for helping enable his success this year. The point here is more about the continually exaggerated perception of batting average as a standalone measure of value, or strikeouts as some supreme detriment, and Arráez (who leads the league in GIDP) happens to be the poster child this year. Arráez's Padres lead the major leagues in batting average (.259). But they rank 10th in OPS, and 10th in runs scored. The Twins rank 15th out of 30 teams in average, but eighth in OPS, and they've scored three more runs than San Diego in four fewer games. That's a perfect reflection of the point at hand here. Production is production. No team in baseball is using batting average as the primary evaluator of it. The gap between production and perception is the clearest way to objectively characterize a player as overrated or underrated. From this perspective, the narratives around Correa and Arráez are astoundingly twisted up, even on the home front. View full article
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Let's Talk About Who's Actually the Most Overrated Player in MLB
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
As Cody Christie covered here last week, Carlos Correa's name appeared among the top three for "most overrated player" in a spring player poll conducted by The Athletic. It should be noted that relatively few players opted to answer this question, and Correa came in third with a mere four total votes. Still, his connection with this label does seem to hint at a wider perception gap. In the first round of MLB All-Star voting, released a few days ago, Correa ranked 10th among MLB shortstops. Tenth! For a name with that recognition level, who was having a good season even before the current torrid streak got underway, that is simply wild. Star Tribune columnist LaVelle E. Neal III tweeted last week that "standards haven't been met" by the high-salaried shortstop, demanding more offense from a player who'd been well above average by virtually any metric. As Correa's current rampage got underway, Neal doubled down, even as his own newspaper ran a glowing piece full of clubhouse quotes marveling at Correa's exceptional leadership and culture-shaping impact. It's very weird to see. When healthy, Correa is one of the most well-rounded players in baseball. A defensive whiz at shortstop; a disciplined and consistent offensive threat at the plate. He's among the slower middle infielders you'll come across, but that is literally the only significant mark against him in terms of player profile. He does everything well, on and off the field. Yet so many scribes and fans seem to undervalue him while waxing poetic and reminiscing for the days of a bygone singles hitter, who legitimately does only one thing well. That's right. I'm here to say that Luis Arráez is in fact the most overrated player in baseball, and I continue to believe that the Twins front office executed a master stroke by taking advantage of his inflated valuation to acquire Pablo López. Let's be clear: I'm not saying Arráez is a bad player, by any means. He's won two straight batting titles, and looks to be on his way to a third. He's just a very one-dimensional player. There's obviously value in making contact and hitting singles at an unparalleled rate, but the name of the game is overall production. In this regard, Arráez amounts to a pretty average player. Consider this: while Arráez is hitting a robust .318, his OPS (.733) is 13 points lower than that of Carlos Santana (.746), whose batting average is just .239. Minnesota's 38-year-old scrap-heap free agent signee has a significantly higher fWAR (1.1) than Arráez (0.7), who would rank 10th among Twins position players in that metric. You might feel WAR is overrated. You might feel Arráez's contact-oriented production is preferable to more of a walk-driven OBP and power-fueled OPS. I can buy into those beliefs, to some extent. But production is production, and there's really no argument for Arráez being vastly more productive than Santana (as one example), especially when you account for the chasm in defense. Your mileage may vary when it comes to fielding stats, but it's plain to the eye test that Santana is a good defender and Arráez is a very poor one, who costs his team runs. That has to be factored in. But seemingly, it's not. Arráez is currently the leader in All-Star votes at second base for the National League, edging Ketel Marte -- who's been immensely better through any lens other than batting average -- by 7,000 votes. I'm sorry, but that's the definition of overrated. And Correa ranking 10th among AL shortstops, behind Zach Neto and J.P. Crawford, is the definition of underrated. While I'm sure many will interpret it as one, this is not intended as a hit piece on Luis Arráez. I love Arráez! He's one of the most likable players around, and his style of play is enjoyable to me. It was awesome that Correa recently credited conversations with Arráez for helping enable his success this year. The point here is more about the continually exaggerated perception of batting average as a standalone measure of value, or strikeouts as some supreme detriment, and Arráez (who leads the league in GIDP) happens to be the poster child this year. Arráez's Padres lead the major leagues in batting average (.259). But they rank 10th in OPS, and 10th in runs scored. The Twins rank 15th out of 30 teams in average, but eighth in OPS, and they've scored three more runs than San Diego in four fewer games. That's a perfect reflection of the point at hand here. Production is production. No team in baseball is using batting average as the primary evaluator of it. The gap between production and perception is the clearest way to objectively characterize a player as overrated or underrated. From this perspective, the narratives around Correa and Arráez are astoundingly twisted up, even on the home front. -
I was out there last weekend for the series as well and we had an awesome time. It was fun to read your perspective John, thanks for sharing! That first picture of downtown at night is spectacular, did you take that??
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/10 through Sun, 6/16 *** Record Last Week: 6-1 (Overall: 40-32) Run Differential Last Week: +22 (Overall: +16) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 66 | MIN 5, COL 0: Paddack Throws Fire, Lewis Homers to Seal Win Game 67 | COL 5, MIN 4: Comeback Falls Short After Thielbar Meltdown Game 68 | MIN 17, COL 9: Bats Go Bananas in Series-Clinching Slugfest Game 69 | MIN 6, OAK 2: Correa's Hot Bat Powers Twins to Victory Game 70 | MIN 6, OAK 5: Kepler's Big Game Culminates in Walk-Off Game 71 | MIN 6, OAK 2: Correa and Lewis Fuel Fourth Straight Win Game 72 | MIN 8, OAK 7: Twins Fend Off Pesky A's to Lock Up Sweep IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES Following in the footsteps of Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff was demoted to Triple-A last week, subtracting another key left-handed bat from Minnesota's offensive mix. It was hard to argue against the demotion on merit, as Kirilloff has looked ineffective at the plate for a vast majority of the season, while offering no positive value on defense. Kirilloff is hardly one to wear his emotions on his sleeve, but to me his mounting frustration seemed evident. There's been nothing free and easy about his game. Hopefully a reset of his own at Triple-A can rejuvenate Kirilloff's confidence and swing. In the meantime, Austin Martin has returned to serve as a dynamic bench weapon and part-time player. Louie Varland also made it back across the river this past week – twice in fact. He made a spot start on Tuesday to give the rotation a break, and took advantage of the opportunity with five shutout innings. Varland shuttled back to the minors after the start, but returned as the extra man for Sunday's doubleheader, pitching long relief in the nightcap and helping bridge to the late relievers in a sweep-clinching win. Varland will now go back to Triple-A, but definitely with an added level of faith from the Twins. Curiously, it was Jay Jackson recalled to fill the new roster vacancy, after spending a few weeks outside of the active and 40-man rosters. His reinstatement meant a DFA for fellow fringe reliever Diego Castillo, who showed little control or ability to miss bats. Castillo elected free agency on Sunday. HIGHLIGHTS Soft competition or not, the Twins are a team you can't help but believe in when Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are healthy and clicking. Right now that is very much the case. Lewis finds himself on an eight-game hitting streak after going 10-for-24 with four more home runs, extending his remarkable power-hitting rampage since coming off the injured list. He got Friday night off as a matter of maintenance, but started all six other games, including each end of Sunday's doubleheader (homering in both, naturally). That seems like a great sign for his physical state, and his swing is clearly healthy as could be. Lewis struck out once in 27 plate appearances the past week and has only six total strikeouts in 12 games. Meanwhile, he's slugging a cool .951. Simply unreal. Correa posted his first career five-hit game on Wednesday, part of a spectacular week that saw him notch 17 knocks in 31 at-bats. He found his power stroke in a big way, launching three home runs after entering the week with five on the season. Correa is batting .431 in the month of June, with 16 RBIs in 14 games. He's potentially putting himself in position for All-Star consideration, although competition at shortstop is stiff. Contrary to what you might've heard, standards have most definitely been met. Seeing Lewis and Correa excel to this degree is delightful, but not entirely surprising. We know who they are when healthy. That's been less clear lately for Buxton, who's struggled to find his footing offensively in the first half. This past week he showed real signs of getting on track, putting together his best stretch of the season so far at the plate. Buxton tallied eight hits in 19 at-bats with a home run, a triple and six RBIs. Most encouraging: he drew two walks and struck out only twice all week. For much of the first two months, Buxton looked like he was struggling to catch up, but now he's flashing a bit more quickness and connecting on his pitches. Obviously it's a very small sample against largely sub-par pitching, and Buck needs to prove he can avoid lapsing back into a strikeout-filled slump, but his rise is very much worth keeping an eye on. If he's tilting back toward his prime form with the bat, that's a major game-changer for the Twins lineup. Some other highlights in an overpowering week that saw the offense produce 52 runs on 88 hits (14 homers) in seven games: Max Kepler snapped his slump in a big way on Friday night, producing one of the biggest individual performances of the season as the team debuted their blue-and-yellow City Connect uniforms in front of a packed house at Target Field. Kepler gave them a good show: he delivered a game-tying three-run homer, then survived a 99-MPH fastball to the elbow, staying in the game to later come through with a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth. His OPS jumped nearly 40 points (.721 to .759) from this game alone. Carlos Santana continues to beat the "cooked" allegations in a big way. He's become a legit run-producer in the lineup, driving in nine runs in his seven games last week with two homers and two doubles. Santana's been raking for over a month now, putting a slow start firmly in the rearview mirror and – in doing so – changing the narrative a bit regarding the front office's offseason moves. (On that note, Manuel Margot also had a very solid week, contributing four hits and three walks in a growing role.) If you've been waiting for Willi Castro to come back down to Earth ... you're gonna have to keep waiting. He just keeps on coming through and last week was no different, with the free-swinging utility man going 10-for-29 with eight runs scored (and another HBP, naturally). Castro has truly embodied the everyday multi-positional role, leading the team in games played while factoring in at five positions at least semi-regularly. Even Christian Vázquez has started to find some power (three doubles and three RBIs last week), helping offset the ongoing lull from Ryan Jeffers. José Miranda is making himself an essential cog in the lineup; he went 6-for-17 and came through with the game-winning home run in Sunday's doubleheader nightcap. Yeah, the Twins hitters were doing all this damage against some generally poor pitching and low-grade opponents. But the numbers count, and they matter. The Twins might be getting fat off soft competition, but to overly stretch that metaphor, the layers of fat gained now can serve as warmth and sustenance in the event of upcoming dry spells. Or something. Basically what I'm saying it's good to get yourself elevated up over the .500 mark, however you can do it, and now the Twins find themselves back eight games in the black. LOWLIGHTS It wasn't all rays of Minnesota sunlight for the Twins, and specifically their pitching staff. Pablo López delivered another underwhelming outing on Wednesday, lasting only five innings against the Rockies, then handed the ball to a bullpen that flirted with blowing a six-run lead before the offense pulled away. Simeon Woods Richardson gave up a first-inning grand slam to Oakland on Friday and lasted only four innings. Chris Paddack is a perplexing case. He looked about as good as we've seen him in his first start of the week, shutting out the Rockies over 6 ⅓ innings, and then looked about as bad as we've seen him in his second start on Sunday night, coughing up five earned runs in 2 ⅓ against a poor A's lineup. I continue to wonder if the Twins will find a way to get Paddack a break at some point this summer, as he advances toward a 170+ IP pace. We'll see. Varland's strong showing could play a role in setting that up. In the bullpen, Jhoan Durán keeps getting the job done despite – I would argue – relying on smoke and mirrors. He didn't give up a hit in his 2 ⅓ innings over three appearances, and converted his eighth consecutive save, but Durán's stuff is noticeably down and his K-rate has plummeted. (He struck out just one of 10 batters faced last week, with two walks, and has a 10-to-8 K/BB ratio over his past 16 innings.) Unless the big righty can rediscover his dominant edge and start missing more bats, it feels like only a matter of time before all of the increased contact catches up with him. Much as it pains me to say it, Caleb Thielbar appears to not have it anymore at age 37. Dating back to last year, he's had a tough time staying healthy and the execution on his pitches has been lacking. Hitters are taking advantage. Since the start of 2023, including the playoffs, Thielbar has surrendered 12 home runs in 49 ⅔ innings, often in very damaging situations for the team. That was the case on Tuesday, when Thielbar was charged with four earned runs while recording zero outs in an eventual 5-4 loss to Colorado. Rocco Baldelli ran him back out there the next day to try and salvage some confidence with a big lead, but Thielbar was again unable to get a single batter out, allowing three runs (one earned) on a hit and two walks. In total, the left-hander gave up five earned runs without getting an out in his two appearances, lifting his ERA from 5.17 to 8.04 on the season. It's truly sad to see from a local guy whose baseball journey has been one for the storybooks. I'll never forget some of Thielbar's best moments in a Twins uniform, but the team can't let sentiment get in the way of decision-making, and you have to wonder how long they can reasonably keep sticking with him. Kody Funderburk is a pretty clearly superior option at Triple-A. I would guess that an IL stint is more likely than a DFA for Thielbar, who is the highest-paid pitcher in the bullpen at more than $3 million. Maybe his hamstring still isn't fully right? Even if the 37-year-old has degraded skill-wise, what we saw this past week was beyond the pale. TRENDING STORYLINE Down at Triple-A, Matt Wallner is rather loudly making his case for a return to the big leagues. The demoted outfielder has been on an absolute tear following a slow start in Triple-A, notching a pair of four-hit games over the past week and boasting a .397 average with nine home runs in 14 games this month. Wallner's success at the plate has been underpinned by huge improvements in discipline, which was a severe weakness for him in the early part of the season. As the Twins transition back into some tougher competition and aim to chip away at their division deficit, they're going to want to put their best foot forward, and it sure looks like the optimal version of this lineup should feature Wallner's bat against right-handed pitchers. The question is when and how an opportunity will open up for him. I was a little surprised to see the Twins pick Martin over Wallner as Kirilloff's replacement on the roster, given that Martin seems to offer a fair amount of redundancy with Margot as a righty-swinging outfield bat. But Martin has looked good, and it seems unlikely the Twins will reverse course on their decision too quickly. For now, Wallner may simply have to wait his turn, even as he continues to utterly obliterate minor-league pitching. LOOKING AHEAD The homestand continues following a day off on Monday, with the Tampa Bay Rays arriving in town on Tuesday for a three-game set. These aren't your typical Rays: they are in last place in the East, four games below .500, and have uncharacteristically not pitched very well, but this is a team that always battles the Twins hard. Following that series, the Twins head to Oakland for a rematch against the Athletics team they just swept at home. With their stars currently shining bright, there's no reason to think the Twins and their offense can't keep the good times rolling and keep fattening up as we approach the season's midpoint. TUESDAY, JUNE 18: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Civale v. RHP Pablo Lopez WEDNESDAY, JUNE 19: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Joe Ryan THURSDAY, JUNE 20: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Littell v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson FRIDAY, JUNE 21: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Joey Estes SATURDAY, JUNE 22: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP JP Sears SUNDAY, JUNE 23: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Hogan Harris
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In what was likely the easiest week they'll encounter on their entire schedule, the Twins welcomed two of the worst teams in baseball to Target Field and they more than took care of business, showcasing their new threads and some red-hot bats while winning six of seven. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/10 through Sun, 6/16 *** Record Last Week: 6-1 (Overall: 40-32) Run Differential Last Week: +22 (Overall: +16) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 66 | MIN 5, COL 0: Paddack Throws Fire, Lewis Homers to Seal Win Game 67 | COL 5, MIN 4: Comeback Falls Short After Thielbar Meltdown Game 68 | MIN 17, COL 9: Bats Go Bananas in Series-Clinching Slugfest Game 69 | MIN 6, OAK 2: Correa's Hot Bat Powers Twins to Victory Game 70 | MIN 6, OAK 5: Kepler's Big Game Culminates in Walk-Off Game 71 | MIN 6, OAK 2: Correa and Lewis Fuel Fourth Straight Win Game 72 | MIN 8, OAK 7: Twins Fend Off Pesky A's to Lock Up Sweep IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES Following in the footsteps of Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff was demoted to Triple-A last week, subtracting another key left-handed bat from Minnesota's offensive mix. It was hard to argue against the demotion on merit, as Kirilloff has looked ineffective at the plate for a vast majority of the season, while offering no positive value on defense. Kirilloff is hardly one to wear his emotions on his sleeve, but to me his mounting frustration seemed evident. There's been nothing free and easy about his game. Hopefully a reset of his own at Triple-A can rejuvenate Kirilloff's confidence and swing. In the meantime, Austin Martin has returned to serve as a dynamic bench weapon and part-time player. Louie Varland also made it back across the river this past week – twice in fact. He made a spot start on Tuesday to give the rotation a break, and took advantage of the opportunity with five shutout innings. Varland shuttled back to the minors after the start, but returned as the extra man for Sunday's doubleheader, pitching long relief in the nightcap and helping bridge to the late relievers in a sweep-clinching win. Varland will now go back to Triple-A, but definitely with an added level of faith from the Twins. Curiously, it was Jay Jackson recalled to fill the new roster vacancy, after spending a few weeks outside of the active and 40-man rosters. His reinstatement meant a DFA for fellow fringe reliever Diego Castillo, who showed little control or ability to miss bats. Castillo elected free agency on Sunday. HIGHLIGHTS Soft competition or not, the Twins are a team you can't help but believe in when Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are healthy and clicking. Right now that is very much the case. Lewis finds himself on an eight-game hitting streak after going 10-for-24 with four more home runs, extending his remarkable power-hitting rampage since coming off the injured list. He got Friday night off as a matter of maintenance, but started all six other games, including each end of Sunday's doubleheader (homering in both, naturally). That seems like a great sign for his physical state, and his swing is clearly healthy as could be. Lewis struck out once in 27 plate appearances the past week and has only six total strikeouts in 12 games. Meanwhile, he's slugging a cool .951. Simply unreal. Correa posted his first career five-hit game on Wednesday, part of a spectacular week that saw him notch 17 knocks in 31 at-bats. He found his power stroke in a big way, launching three home runs after entering the week with five on the season. Correa is batting .431 in the month of June, with 16 RBIs in 14 games. He's potentially putting himself in position for All-Star consideration, although competition at shortstop is stiff. Contrary to what you might've heard, standards have most definitely been met. Seeing Lewis and Correa excel to this degree is delightful, but not entirely surprising. We know who they are when healthy. That's been less clear lately for Buxton, who's struggled to find his footing offensively in the first half. This past week he showed real signs of getting on track, putting together his best stretch of the season so far at the plate. Buxton tallied eight hits in 19 at-bats with a home run, a triple and six RBIs. Most encouraging: he drew two walks and struck out only twice all week. For much of the first two months, Buxton looked like he was struggling to catch up, but now he's flashing a bit more quickness and connecting on his pitches. Obviously it's a very small sample against largely sub-par pitching, and Buck needs to prove he can avoid lapsing back into a strikeout-filled slump, but his rise is very much worth keeping an eye on. If he's tilting back toward his prime form with the bat, that's a major game-changer for the Twins lineup. Some other highlights in an overpowering week that saw the offense produce 52 runs on 88 hits (14 homers) in seven games: Max Kepler snapped his slump in a big way on Friday night, producing one of the biggest individual performances of the season as the team debuted their blue-and-yellow City Connect uniforms in front of a packed house at Target Field. Kepler gave them a good show: he delivered a game-tying three-run homer, then survived a 99-MPH fastball to the elbow, staying in the game to later come through with a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth. His OPS jumped nearly 40 points (.721 to .759) from this game alone. Carlos Santana continues to beat the "cooked" allegations in a big way. He's become a legit run-producer in the lineup, driving in nine runs in his seven games last week with two homers and two doubles. Santana's been raking for over a month now, putting a slow start firmly in the rearview mirror and – in doing so – changing the narrative a bit regarding the front office's offseason moves. (On that note, Manuel Margot also had a very solid week, contributing four hits and three walks in a growing role.) If you've been waiting for Willi Castro to come back down to Earth ... you're gonna have to keep waiting. He just keeps on coming through and last week was no different, with the free-swinging utility man going 10-for-29 with eight runs scored (and another HBP, naturally). Castro has truly embodied the everyday multi-positional role, leading the team in games played while factoring in at five positions at least semi-regularly. Even Christian Vázquez has started to find some power (three doubles and three RBIs last week), helping offset the ongoing lull from Ryan Jeffers. José Miranda is making himself an essential cog in the lineup; he went 6-for-17 and came through with the game-winning home run in Sunday's doubleheader nightcap. Yeah, the Twins hitters were doing all this damage against some generally poor pitching and low-grade opponents. But the numbers count, and they matter. The Twins might be getting fat off soft competition, but to overly stretch that metaphor, the layers of fat gained now can serve as warmth and sustenance in the event of upcoming dry spells. Or something. Basically what I'm saying it's good to get yourself elevated up over the .500 mark, however you can do it, and now the Twins find themselves back eight games in the black. LOWLIGHTS It wasn't all rays of Minnesota sunlight for the Twins, and specifically their pitching staff. Pablo López delivered another underwhelming outing on Wednesday, lasting only five innings against the Rockies, then handed the ball to a bullpen that flirted with blowing a six-run lead before the offense pulled away. Simeon Woods Richardson gave up a first-inning grand slam to Oakland on Friday and lasted only four innings. Chris Paddack is a perplexing case. He looked about as good as we've seen him in his first start of the week, shutting out the Rockies over 6 ⅓ innings, and then looked about as bad as we've seen him in his second start on Sunday night, coughing up five earned runs in 2 ⅓ against a poor A's lineup. I continue to wonder if the Twins will find a way to get Paddack a break at some point this summer, as he advances toward a 170+ IP pace. We'll see. Varland's strong showing could play a role in setting that up. In the bullpen, Jhoan Durán keeps getting the job done despite – I would argue – relying on smoke and mirrors. He didn't give up a hit in his 2 ⅓ innings over three appearances, and converted his eighth consecutive save, but Durán's stuff is noticeably down and his K-rate has plummeted. (He struck out just one of 10 batters faced last week, with two walks, and has a 10-to-8 K/BB ratio over his past 16 innings.) Unless the big righty can rediscover his dominant edge and start missing more bats, it feels like only a matter of time before all of the increased contact catches up with him. Much as it pains me to say it, Caleb Thielbar appears to not have it anymore at age 37. Dating back to last year, he's had a tough time staying healthy and the execution on his pitches has been lacking. Hitters are taking advantage. Since the start of 2023, including the playoffs, Thielbar has surrendered 12 home runs in 49 ⅔ innings, often in very damaging situations for the team. That was the case on Tuesday, when Thielbar was charged with four earned runs while recording zero outs in an eventual 5-4 loss to Colorado. Rocco Baldelli ran him back out there the next day to try and salvage some confidence with a big lead, but Thielbar was again unable to get a single batter out, allowing three runs (one earned) on a hit and two walks. In total, the left-hander gave up five earned runs without getting an out in his two appearances, lifting his ERA from 5.17 to 8.04 on the season. It's truly sad to see from a local guy whose baseball journey has been one for the storybooks. I'll never forget some of Thielbar's best moments in a Twins uniform, but the team can't let sentiment get in the way of decision-making, and you have to wonder how long they can reasonably keep sticking with him. Kody Funderburk is a pretty clearly superior option at Triple-A. I would guess that an IL stint is more likely than a DFA for Thielbar, who is the highest-paid pitcher in the bullpen at more than $3 million. Maybe his hamstring still isn't fully right? Even if the 37-year-old has degraded skill-wise, what we saw this past week was beyond the pale. TRENDING STORYLINE Down at Triple-A, Matt Wallner is rather loudly making his case for a return to the big leagues. The demoted outfielder has been on an absolute tear following a slow start in Triple-A, notching a pair of four-hit games over the past week and boasting a .397 average with nine home runs in 14 games this month. Wallner's success at the plate has been underpinned by huge improvements in discipline, which was a severe weakness for him in the early part of the season. As the Twins transition back into some tougher competition and aim to chip away at their division deficit, they're going to want to put their best foot forward, and it sure looks like the optimal version of this lineup should feature Wallner's bat against right-handed pitchers. The question is when and how an opportunity will open up for him. I was a little surprised to see the Twins pick Martin over Wallner as Kirilloff's replacement on the roster, given that Martin seems to offer a fair amount of redundancy with Margot as a righty-swinging outfield bat. But Martin has looked good, and it seems unlikely the Twins will reverse course on their decision too quickly. For now, Wallner may simply have to wait his turn, even as he continues to utterly obliterate minor-league pitching. LOOKING AHEAD The homestand continues following a day off on Monday, with the Tampa Bay Rays arriving in town on Tuesday for a three-game set. These aren't your typical Rays: they are in last place in the East, four games below .500, and have uncharacteristically not pitched very well, but this is a team that always battles the Twins hard. Following that series, the Twins head to Oakland for a rematch against the Athletics team they just swept at home. With their stars currently shining bright, there's no reason to think the Twins and their offense can't keep the good times rolling and keep fattening up as we approach the season's midpoint. TUESDAY, JUNE 18: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Civale v. RHP Pablo Lopez WEDNESDAY, JUNE 19: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Joe Ryan THURSDAY, JUNE 20: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Littell v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson FRIDAY, JUNE 21: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Joey Estes SATURDAY, JUNE 22: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP JP Sears SUNDAY, JUNE 23: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Hogan Harris View full article
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Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good points all around in these comments. I guess the big (happy) takeaway is that we're having these discussions because the Twins are so remarkably healthy right now. Knock on wood and all that. There's been many a year where attrition at the MLB level would be rendering the debate around Wallner's handling moot. -
Coming off a breakthrough rookie season, Matt Wallner struggled mightily throughout spring training, but it was mostly shrugged off by him and his coaches. The sample is small and the games don't matter, was the refrain more or less. Once the games did start mattering and Wallner's bat failed to start battering, the vibe quickly changed. Just 13 games into his season, with a .080/.273/.240 slash line and 17-to-3 K/BB ratio in 33 plate appearances, the Twins decided to send Wallner down. The hope was that a trip to St. Paul would help Wallner get right in a hurry. Instead, it merely verified that his plate approach was truly broken. Playing at a level where he crushed in both 2022 and 2023, Wallner looked totally lost in his first couple weeks with the Saints, slashing .152/.204/.261 with 21 strikeouts in three walks through his first 11 games and 49 plate appearances. Almost identical to his numbers in the majors. In early May he went through a bit of a power streak, but the indicators of plate discipline were still pretty alarming: 33 strikeouts and four walks through 20 games at Triple-A; a 37% K-rate and 4% BB rate. He just wasn't going to sustainably succeed the way. No one can. On May 12th, Wallner did something he hadn't all year: he drew two walks in a game. It was a notable development from a player who had drawn seven total free passes through 33 games. Then he drew two walks again three games later. And again two games after that. Since that date, May 12th, Wallner has a 36-to-20 K/BB ratio that looks radically different from what we saw in the first seven weeks of the season. In 19 games during that span (entering play Friday) Wallner has a palatable 29% K-rate and an excellent 16% BB-rate. He's slashing .214/.341/.505 for an .846 OPS that is very strong despite being suppressed by a .230 BABIP. If we zoom into a more recent sample, the numbers are even more impressive: in his past 15 games, Wallner is batting .316 with a 1.126 OPS, eight homers and 17 RBIs. In 66 plate appearances: 15 strikeouts (23%) and eight walks (12%). Seeing Wallner launching home runs all over the place -- most recently he crushed two as part of a four-hit night in St. Paul's 18-run barrage against Louisville on Thursday -- is obviously great. But it's not necessarily all that telling. He's always going to be able to obliterate the baseball when he gets a hold of it. Putting forth better plate appearances and getting himself in position to get pitches he can wallop (or spitting on those he can't) is the key for Wallner. Now he's finally doing those things, in convincing fashion. Wallner's eventual turnaround in Triple-A offers hope for Edouard Julien, who is going through a similar spell of initial struggles following his demotion, as well as Alex Kirilloff, who's now joined the two in the minors. Of course, it won't matter unless Wallner can channel the newfound confidence back into major-league success, and you wonder how long it will take for him to get that chance. The front office chose Austin Martin as the call-up instead of Wallner when they sent down Kirilloff earlier this week, which surprised me somewhat given the need for another quality left-handed bat. But with that need in mind, Wallner's return can't be too far off. We can officially and unequivocally say at this point he's earned it. What are your thoughts? Would you be looking for a way to get Wallner back up into the Twins lineup quickly, or would you keep him in the minors until an opportunity naturally arises?
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The homegrown slugger endured a tumultuous start to this season at the major-league level, and didn't initially look a whole lot better after being demoted to the minors in April. The past few weeks, however, have brought a lot of positive signs, suggesting that Matt Wallner may be ready to return and make an impact in the near future. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Coming off a breakthrough rookie season, Matt Wallner struggled mightily throughout spring training, but it was mostly shrugged off by him and his coaches. The sample is small and the games don't matter, was the refrain more or less. Once the games did start mattering and Wallner's bat failed to start battering, the vibe quickly changed. Just 13 games into his season, with a .080/.273/.240 slash line and 17-to-3 K/BB ratio in 33 plate appearances, the Twins decided to send Wallner down. The hope was that a trip to St. Paul would help Wallner get right in a hurry. Instead, it merely verified that his plate approach was truly broken. Playing at a level where he crushed in both 2022 and 2023, Wallner looked totally lost in his first couple weeks with the Saints, slashing .152/.204/.261 with 21 strikeouts in three walks through his first 11 games and 49 plate appearances. Almost identical to his numbers in the majors. In early May he went through a bit of a power streak, but the indicators of plate discipline were still pretty alarming: 33 strikeouts and four walks through 20 games at Triple-A; a 37% K-rate and 4% BB rate. He just wasn't going to sustainably succeed the way. No one can. On May 12th, Wallner did something he hadn't all year: he drew two walks in a game. It was a notable development from a player who had drawn seven total free passes through 33 games. Then he drew two walks again three games later. And again two games after that. Since that date, May 12th, Wallner has a 36-to-20 K/BB ratio that looks radically different from what we saw in the first seven weeks of the season. In 19 games during that span (entering play Friday) Wallner has a palatable 29% K-rate and an excellent 16% BB-rate. He's slashing .214/.341/.505 for an .846 OPS that is very strong despite being suppressed by a .230 BABIP. If we zoom into a more recent sample, the numbers are even more impressive: in his past 15 games, Wallner is batting .316 with a 1.126 OPS, eight homers and 17 RBIs. In 66 plate appearances: 15 strikeouts (23%) and eight walks (12%). Seeing Wallner launching home runs all over the place -- most recently he crushed two as part of a four-hit night in St. Paul's 18-run barrage against Louisville on Thursday -- is obviously great. But it's not necessarily all that telling. He's always going to be able to obliterate the baseball when he gets a hold of it. Putting forth better plate appearances and getting himself in position to get pitches he can wallop (or spitting on those he can't) is the key for Wallner. Now he's finally doing those things, in convincing fashion. Wallner's eventual turnaround in Triple-A offers hope for Edouard Julien, who is going through a similar spell of initial struggles following his demotion, as well as Alex Kirilloff, who's now joined the two in the minors. Of course, it won't matter unless Wallner can channel the newfound confidence back into major-league success, and you wonder how long it will take for him to get that chance. The front office chose Austin Martin as the call-up instead of Wallner when they sent down Kirilloff earlier this week, which surprised me somewhat given the need for another quality left-handed bat. But with that need in mind, Wallner's return can't be too far off. We can officially and unequivocally say at this point he's earned it. What are your thoughts? Would you be looking for a way to get Wallner back up into the Twins lineup quickly, or would you keep him in the minors until an opportunity naturally arises? View full article
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It's no secret that Rocco Baldelli likes to embrace the platoon advantage, a tendency that is well supported by data. Unfortunately, recent roster moves are making it increasingly hard for him to build optimized lineups against the very pitchers that have stymied the Twins offense. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports It's hard to argue with the decision to demote Alex Kirilloff to the minors, in a vacuum. His latest performance -- 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in a one-run loss to the Rockies on Tuesday -- punctuated a lengthy slump that saw him slash .143/.221/.325 with six extra-base hits since the start of May. It's also hard to argue with the decision to promote Austin Martin as a corresponding move, in a vacuum. Martin has been an on-base machine since returning to Triple-A, posting a .449 OBP with 18 walks in 78 plate appearances. That's the kind of discipline and consistency Minnesota's lineup could use. The problem with swapping out Kirilloff for Martin, nine days after demoting Edouard Julien to make room for Royce Lewis, is that it further skews the problematic balance of lefty/righty bats on this roster, which has already been forced to make do without Matt Wallner, who was expected to be a key threat versus right-handed pitchers. Manager Rocco Baldelli will now be hard-pressed to fill out an optimized lineup against righties, who have been a critical pain point for the Twins offense. Minnesota has actually performed quite well against lefties, slashing .266/.312/.429 in 631 plate appearances against them, with Wednesday's ambush of Colorado southpaw Austin Gomber serving as the latest success story. Against righties, the Twins have been significantly worse, slashing .227/.307/.394 for an OPS that is 40 points lower. That is an issue, of course, because right-handed pitchers are far more prevalent: 75% of Minnesota's total PAs have come against RHP, which is pretty standard. Replacing Kirilloff and Julien with righty bats leaves the Twins with just two pure left-handed hitters on the roster: Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach. Kepler has of course been mired in a massive slump (.389 OPS in his past 18 games) and Larnach always seems at risk of falling into one. Beyond them, you have a switch-hitter in Carlos Santana, who has been better against lefties than righties this year and in his career, and another in Willi Castro, for whom the same applies. From there, it's all righties. For now, that might not feel like such a bad thing -- Twins RH batters have a respectable .715 OPS against RH pitchers, which is 9% better than the league average -- but you have to wonder how that's going to hold up if Baldelli is forced to write in the names of Martin, Jose Miranda, Manuel Margot and Kyle Farmer against righty starters too frequently. Here's what the three demoted lefty hitters did against right-handed pitching last year, and what the Twins are missing: Julien: .274/.401/.497 (360 PA) Kirilloff: .300/.373/.485 (263 PA) Wallner: .281/.409/.561 (208 PA) Losing all that outstanding production is a pretty clear-cut prime culprit in the team's overall offensive woes. I'm not saying that keeping them around was necessarily going to be the solution, but stacking the entire roster with right-handed bats also doesn't seem to be it. In order to truly get their lagging lineup on track, it's imperative for the Twins to get at least one of these lefty bats back on the roster in functional form, and preferably two or all three. There is plenty more right-handed pitching ahead. View full article
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Swapping Kirilloff for Martin Magnifies Minnesota's Matchup Problems
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
It's hard to argue with the decision to demote Alex Kirilloff to the minors, in a vacuum. His latest performance -- 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in a one-run loss to the Rockies on Tuesday -- punctuated a lengthy slump that saw him slash .143/.221/.325 with six extra-base hits since the start of May. It's also hard to argue with the decision to promote Austin Martin as a corresponding move, in a vacuum. Martin has been an on-base machine since returning to Triple-A, posting a .449 OBP with 18 walks in 78 plate appearances. That's the kind of discipline and consistency Minnesota's lineup could use. The problem with swapping out Kirilloff for Martin, nine days after demoting Edouard Julien to make room for Royce Lewis, is that it further skews the problematic balance of lefty/righty bats on this roster, which has already been forced to make do without Matt Wallner, who was expected to be a key threat versus right-handed pitchers. Manager Rocco Baldelli will now be hard-pressed to fill out an optimized lineup against righties, who have been a critical pain point for the Twins offense. Minnesota has actually performed quite well against lefties, slashing .266/.312/.429 in 631 plate appearances against them, with Wednesday's ambush of Colorado southpaw Austin Gomber serving as the latest success story. Against righties, the Twins have been significantly worse, slashing .227/.307/.394 for an OPS that is 40 points lower. That is an issue, of course, because right-handed pitchers are far more prevalent: 75% of Minnesota's total PAs have come against RHP, which is pretty standard. Replacing Kirilloff and Julien with righty bats leaves the Twins with just two pure left-handed hitters on the roster: Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach. Kepler has of course been mired in a massive slump (.389 OPS in his past 18 games) and Larnach always seems at risk of falling into one. Beyond them, you have a switch-hitter in Carlos Santana, who has been better against lefties than righties this year and in his career, and another in Willi Castro, for whom the same applies. From there, it's all righties. For now, that might not feel like such a bad thing -- Twins RH batters have a respectable .715 OPS against RH pitchers, which is 9% better than the league average -- but you have to wonder how that's going to hold up if Baldelli is forced to write in the names of Martin, Jose Miranda, Manuel Margot and Kyle Farmer against righty starters too frequently. Here's what the three demoted lefty hitters did against right-handed pitching last year, and what the Twins are missing: Julien: .274/.401/.497 (360 PA) Kirilloff: .300/.373/.485 (263 PA) Wallner: .281/.409/.561 (208 PA) Losing all that outstanding production is a pretty clear-cut prime culprit in the team's overall offensive woes. I'm not saying that keeping them around was necessarily going to be the solution, but stacking the entire roster with right-handed bats also doesn't seem to be it. In order to truly get their lagging lineup on track, it's imperative for the Twins to get at least one of these lefty bats back on the roster in functional form, and preferably two or all three. There is plenty more right-handed pitching ahead.- 71 comments
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Once again, the Minnesota Twins were on a nice little roll when they ran into the New York Yankees on the schedule. Once again, that dreaded meeting sent them into a depressing death spiral, leaving us all to question the true quality and capability of this frustrating Twins team. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/3 through Sun, 6/9 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 34-31) Run Differential Last Week: -12 (Overall: -6) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (8.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 60 | NYY 5, MIN 1: Royce Returns to Familiar Result in NYC Game 61 | NYY 9, MIN 5: Yankees Pounce on Paddack, Win Again Game 62 | NYY 8, MIN 5: Twins Shrink in the Bronx Once Again Game 63 | PIT 3, MIN 0: Lineup Can't Support Strong Ryan Outing Game 64 | PIT 4, MIN 0: Slumping Offense Comes Up Empty Game 65 | MIN 11, PIT 5: Twins Break Through in Extras to Win NO PODCAST EPISODE THIS WEEK SINCE I'M ON THE ROAD IN PITTSBURGH. BUT WE'LL BE BACK NEXT WEEK. SUBSCRIBE ON APPLE OR SPOTIFY SO YOU DON'T MISS OUT! NEWS & NOTES Royce Lewis made his long-awaited return to the Twins after spending two months on the injured list, and as we learned last Sunday, Edouard Julien was the unlucky victim of a roster crunch. The slumping second baseman was optioned to Triple-A, where he homered on the first pitch he saw on Wednesday. Hopefully it'll be a short stay in the minors for one of Minnesota's most talented and crucial hitters. Julien was joined at Triple-Al by Brooks Lee, who completed his rehab in Single-A and now looks to get fully back on track in his pursuit of a major-league debut. Lee notched three hits and a pair of walks in his first week back in action at St. Paul. HIGHLIGHTS They went to waste thanks to the Twins offense, but both Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson delivered excellent outings in Pittsburgh. Ryan bounced back from his worst start of the year in Houston with seven innings of two-run ball, striking out eight with only two hits allowed. Woods Richardson's outing was even more encouraging, all things considered; he took a shutout into the seventh inning and finished with just one run allowed, striking out six. SWR showcased his newfound velocity bump, averaging 94 MPH with the fastball and touching 97, which would've been unheard of a year ago. The right-hander now owns a 2.84 ERA in 10 starts, and the Twins have gone 7-3 in those games. He's been a lifesaver for the back of the rotation. Offensively, the return of Lewis was really the lone bright spot. He homered in his first two games back, but unfortunately his energy did not prove contagious. LOWLIGHTS The lineup is currently a woeful mess, filled with hitters who've either been slumping most of the year or previously hot bats that have gone ice cold. In the latter bucket, you have Max Kepler (4-for-22, 9 K, 1 BB) and Ryan Jeffers (2-for-15). Jeffers is batting .129 with a .286 SLG since May 15th; he's actually been worse over that span since Christian Vázquez. Both Kepler and Jeffers have seen their outstanding numbers hurdle back to Earth, which is disappointing but not entirely unexpected. It's a little tougher to accept the performances of players who've been unable to find any offensive game all year. Byron Buxton is in that group. He picked up three singles in 19 at-bats last week, with six strikeouts and no walks. He's now slashing .223/.276/.357 on the season. As a Buxton fan, I was hoping he'd round into form as he settled and got comfortable, but we're now in June and he's shown no real improvement or progression. At this point, his offensive game seems very limited, and I'm not sure his defensive impact is offsetting his negatives at the plate. That said, there's not much to be done other than keep running the veteran out there and hoping he can find a pulse at the plate. Alex Kirilloff is not so lucky as to have a $100 million contract keeping him locked into the roster. He's been in a perpetual slump since about the third week of the season, and is coming off another poor week in which he went 1-for-12 to lower his OPS to .674. Kirilloff has played in 55 games this season and has tallied multiple hits in two of them. Honestly, I'd be surprised if he isn't sent down on Monday. Generally, I'm not sure what to say about this club. After flopping against the Yankees again, they are now 0-14 against the three best teams in the American League (NYY, CLE, BAL) and they have a negative run differential on the season. Their ace Pablo López has a 5.45 ERA – one of three starters with an ERA above five – and their closer Jhoan Durán is at 4.60. Nobody is really playing up to their potential. Rocco Baldelli's previous penchant for keeping his team out of prolonged funks has disappeared, with three different five-game losing streaks already on the books. It's getting much tougher to say, "They'll come around." Come around to what? They roster isn't even beat up really. They just haven't been good, nor have they given any substantial reason for anyone to be confident that will change. TRENDING STORYLINE Things are kind of slipping away from the Twins. They find themselves 8 ½ games out of first place here in mid-June, with roundly underwhelming performances across the board. Will they shake things up? As mentioned earlier, I would expect to see a fairly significant roster move in the coming week, such as swapping out Kirilloff for Matt Wallner. I also wouldn't be surprised to see something like the dismissal of the hitting coach. If David Popkins and his hitting instruction program are not failing, you wonder what that it would look like if they were. LOOKING AHEAD It gets easier from here. The Rockies and Athletics are abjectly bad teams. Hopefully the Twins will rattle off some wins at home. Not sure it'll be all that fulfilling or satisfying even if they do. MONDAY, JUN 10: ROCKIES @ TWINS – RHP Dakota Hudson v. RHP Chris Paddack TUESDAY, JUNE 11: ROCKIES @ TWINS – RHP Cal Quantrill v. TBD WEDNESDAY, JUNE 12: ROCKIES @ TWINS – LHP Austin Gomber v. RHP Pablo López THURSDAY, JUNE 13: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Luis Medina v. RHP Joe Ryan FRIDAY, JUNE 14: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Mitch Spence v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson SATURDAY, JUNE 15: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Joey Estes v. RHP Bailey Ober SUNDAY, JUNE 16: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – LHP JP Sears v. RHP Chris Paddack View full article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/3 through Sun, 6/9 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 34-31) Run Differential Last Week: -12 (Overall: -6) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (8.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 60 | NYY 5, MIN 1: Royce Returns to Familiar Result in NYC Game 61 | NYY 9, MIN 5: Yankees Pounce on Paddack, Win Again Game 62 | NYY 8, MIN 5: Twins Shrink in the Bronx Once Again Game 63 | PIT 3, MIN 0: Lineup Can't Support Strong Ryan Outing Game 64 | PIT 4, MIN 0: Slumping Offense Comes Up Empty Game 65 | MIN 11, PIT 5: Twins Break Through in Extras to Win NO PODCAST EPISODE THIS WEEK SINCE I'M ON THE ROAD IN PITTSBURGH. BUT WE'LL BE BACK NEXT WEEK. SUBSCRIBE ON APPLE OR SPOTIFY SO YOU DON'T MISS OUT! NEWS & NOTES Royce Lewis made his long-awaited return to the Twins after spending two months on the injured list, and as we learned last Sunday, Edouard Julien was the unlucky victim of a roster crunch. The slumping second baseman was optioned to Triple-A, where he homered on the first pitch he saw on Wednesday. Hopefully it'll be a short stay in the minors for one of Minnesota's most talented and crucial hitters. Julien was joined at Triple-Al by Brooks Lee, who completed his rehab in Single-A and now looks to get fully back on track in his pursuit of a major-league debut. Lee notched three hits and a pair of walks in his first week back in action at St. Paul. HIGHLIGHTS They went to waste thanks to the Twins offense, but both Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson delivered excellent outings in Pittsburgh. Ryan bounced back from his worst start of the year in Houston with seven innings of two-run ball, striking out eight with only two hits allowed. Woods Richardson's outing was even more encouraging, all things considered; he took a shutout into the seventh inning and finished with just one run allowed, striking out six. SWR showcased his newfound velocity bump, averaging 94 MPH with the fastball and touching 97, which would've been unheard of a year ago. The right-hander now owns a 2.84 ERA in 10 starts, and the Twins have gone 7-3 in those games. He's been a lifesaver for the back of the rotation. Offensively, the return of Lewis was really the lone bright spot. He homered in his first two games back, but unfortunately his energy did not prove contagious. LOWLIGHTS The lineup is currently a woeful mess, filled with hitters who've either been slumping most of the year or previously hot bats that have gone ice cold. In the latter bucket, you have Max Kepler (4-for-22, 9 K, 1 BB) and Ryan Jeffers (2-for-15). Jeffers is batting .129 with a .286 SLG since May 15th; he's actually been worse over that span since Christian Vázquez. Both Kepler and Jeffers have seen their outstanding numbers hurdle back to Earth, which is disappointing but not entirely unexpected. It's a little tougher to accept the performances of players who've been unable to find any offensive game all year. Byron Buxton is in that group. He picked up three singles in 19 at-bats last week, with six strikeouts and no walks. He's now slashing .223/.276/.357 on the season. As a Buxton fan, I was hoping he'd round into form as he settled and got comfortable, but we're now in June and he's shown no real improvement or progression. At this point, his offensive game seems very limited, and I'm not sure his defensive impact is offsetting his negatives at the plate. That said, there's not much to be done other than keep running the veteran out there and hoping he can find a pulse at the plate. Alex Kirilloff is not so lucky as to have a $100 million contract keeping him locked into the roster. He's been in a perpetual slump since about the third week of the season, and is coming off another poor week in which he went 1-for-12 to lower his OPS to .674. Kirilloff has played in 55 games this season and has tallied multiple hits in two of them. Honestly, I'd be surprised if he isn't sent down on Monday. Generally, I'm not sure what to say about this club. After flopping against the Yankees again, they are now 0-14 against the three best teams in the American League (NYY, CLE, BAL) and they have a negative run differential on the season. Their ace Pablo López has a 5.45 ERA – one of three starters with an ERA above five – and their closer Jhoan Durán is at 4.60. Nobody is really playing up to their potential. Rocco Baldelli's previous penchant for keeping his team out of prolonged funks has disappeared, with three different five-game losing streaks already on the books. It's getting much tougher to say, "They'll come around." Come around to what? They roster isn't even beat up really. They just haven't been good, nor have they given any substantial reason for anyone to be confident that will change. TRENDING STORYLINE Things are kind of slipping away from the Twins. They find themselves 8 ½ games out of first place here in mid-June, with roundly underwhelming performances across the board. Will they shake things up? As mentioned earlier, I would expect to see a fairly significant roster move in the coming week, such as swapping out Kirilloff for Matt Wallner. I also wouldn't be surprised to see something like the dismissal of the hitting coach. If David Popkins and his hitting instruction program are not failing, you wonder what that it would look like if they were. LOOKING AHEAD It gets easier from here. The Rockies and Athletics are abjectly bad teams. Hopefully the Twins will rattle off some wins at home. Not sure it'll be all that fulfilling or satisfying even if they do. MONDAY, JUN 10: ROCKIES @ TWINS – RHP Dakota Hudson v. RHP Chris Paddack TUESDAY, JUNE 11: ROCKIES @ TWINS – RHP Cal Quantrill v. TBD WEDNESDAY, JUNE 12: ROCKIES @ TWINS – LHP Austin Gomber v. RHP Pablo López THURSDAY, JUNE 13: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Luis Medina v. RHP Joe Ryan FRIDAY, JUNE 14: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Mitch Spence v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson SATURDAY, JUNE 15: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Joey Estes v. RHP Bailey Ober SUNDAY, JUNE 16: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – LHP JP Sears v. RHP Chris Paddack
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In Sunday's series finale against the Houston Astros, Rocco Baldelli made a familiar move: he pivoted away from his starting pitcher early, counting on his bullpen to carry the freight in a close game. Simeon Woods Richardson wasn't at his best, but he was still at 66 pitches in the fifth inning of a one-run game. Rather than let him see the Houston lineup for a third time, Baldelli turned to his relief corps. The outcome was also familiar: Minnesota's bullpen locked it down with 4 ⅔ shutout innings to set up and seal a 4-3 victory. The Twins improved to 11-4 in one-run games on the season, with Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Steven Okert, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán combining to stifle Astros bats and set the stage for José Miranda's heroics. The Twins are now 9-3 in their last 12 games since snapping a seven-game losing streak, and during this span, those five relievers who pitched on Sunday have allowed a total of one earned run in 26 ⅓ innings, good for a 0.34 ERA. Durán converted all seven of his save attempts during that span. For the season, Minnesota's bullpen ranks seventh among MLB teams in ERA (3.69) and sixth in FIP (3.72), despite being without one of their three best relievers (Brock Stewart or Durán) for literally every game. This unit has certainly not been without its hiccups; inflated ERAs from now-absent relievers Jay Jackson and Kody Funderburk took a toll, as did a pair of rough outings from Durán in Cleveland. But in its current form, there is a whole lot to like about the bullpen makeup and its outlook. The closer has been highly effective, even if his velocity is down a bit. Late-inning contributors are getting it done across the board. And Griffin Jax. Hoo boy. I wrote about Jax's potential to rise and command the Twins bullpen just ahead of the season, coming off a ridiculously impressive spring camp. The righthander has lived up to the hype, and then some. He ranks ninth in the majors with a 1.88 FIP, and seventh with a 2.15 xERA. Jax's Statcast page is an array of blindingly bright red sliders, illustrating the underlying dominance that fuels his numbers. Jax's sweeper has been an absolute wipeout pitch, as anticipated. Opponents have an xBA of .191 against it and an xSLG of .219 – no one can handle the freakish 89-MPH breaking ball. It slices across the batter's field of view like a buzzsaw. Somehow, he only seems to be getting better and stronger. On Sunday, he unleashed a 98.6-MPH fastball, the hardest of his career. At some point, the Twins will (hopefully) get Stewart back, but as things stand, this looks like a deep and overpowering bullpen, led by Durán and Jax but with capable performers throughout. I promise: this article isn't intended to serve as a jinx (although it may function as one, especially with the Twins heading into Yankee Stadium). Rather, take it as a token of appreciation for what the relief corps has accomplished through the first third of the season, and especially of late, despite being pressed heavily by a ton of close games. Bullpens only tend to get noticed and discussed when they're struggling. Let's celebrate the fact that, right now, Minnesota's relievers are doing the opposite. They're pitching out of their minds, and have played a massive role in getting the Twins right back on track.
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Since recovering from their stumble out of the gate, the Minnesota Twins have been one of the winningest teams in baseball, largely because they are performing phenomenally in close games. For all the fluctuations we've seen from the lineup and rotation, their (mostly) steady and stellar bullpen has been the unsung hero in Minnesota's ability to play at a 90-win pace in the absence of Royce Lewis. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports In Sunday's series finale against the Houston Astros, Rocco Baldelli made a familiar move: he pivoted away from his starting pitcher early, counting on his bullpen to carry the freight in a close game. Simeon Woods Richardson wasn't at his best, but he was still at 66 pitches in the fifth inning of a one-run game. Rather than let him see the Houston lineup for a third time, Baldelli turned to his relief corps. The outcome was also familiar: Minnesota's bullpen locked it down with 4 ⅔ shutout innings to set up and seal a 4-3 victory. The Twins improved to 11-4 in one-run games on the season, with Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Steven Okert, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán combining to stifle Astros bats and set the stage for José Miranda's heroics. The Twins are now 9-3 in their last 12 games since snapping a seven-game losing streak, and during this span, those five relievers who pitched on Sunday have allowed a total of one earned run in 26 ⅓ innings, good for a 0.34 ERA. Durán converted all seven of his save attempts during that span. For the season, Minnesota's bullpen ranks seventh among MLB teams in ERA (3.69) and sixth in FIP (3.72), despite being without one of their three best relievers (Brock Stewart or Durán) for literally every game. This unit has certainly not been without its hiccups; inflated ERAs from now-absent relievers Jay Jackson and Kody Funderburk took a toll, as did a pair of rough outings from Durán in Cleveland. But in its current form, there is a whole lot to like about the bullpen makeup and its outlook. The closer has been highly effective, even if his velocity is down a bit. Late-inning contributors are getting it done across the board. And Griffin Jax. Hoo boy. I wrote about Jax's potential to rise and command the Twins bullpen just ahead of the season, coming off a ridiculously impressive spring camp. The righthander has lived up to the hype, and then some. He ranks ninth in the majors with a 1.88 FIP, and seventh with a 2.15 xERA. Jax's Statcast page is an array of blindingly bright red sliders, illustrating the underlying dominance that fuels his numbers. Jax's sweeper has been an absolute wipeout pitch, as anticipated. Opponents have an xBA of .191 against it and an xSLG of .219 – no one can handle the freakish 89-MPH breaking ball. It slices across the batter's field of view like a buzzsaw. Somehow, he only seems to be getting better and stronger. On Sunday, he unleashed a 98.6-MPH fastball, the hardest of his career. At some point, the Twins will (hopefully) get Stewart back, but as things stand, this looks like a deep and overpowering bullpen, led by Durán and Jax but with capable performers throughout. I promise: this article isn't intended to serve as a jinx (although it may function as one, especially with the Twins heading into Yankee Stadium). Rather, take it as a token of appreciation for what the relief corps has accomplished through the first third of the season, and especially of late, despite being pressed heavily by a ton of close games. Bullpens only tend to get noticed and discussed when they're struggling. Let's celebrate the fact that, right now, Minnesota's relievers are doing the opposite. They're pitching out of their minds, and have played a massive role in getting the Twins right back on track. View full article
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By taking five of seven from the Royals and Astros, and extending their series winning streak to four in a row, the Minnesota Twins continued to play exceptional ball. Their resurgent run will be tested on a coming trip to the East Coast, but a crucial reinforcement is on deck with Royce Lewis set to return. Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/27 through Sun, 6/2 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 33-26) Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: +6) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 53 | MIN 6, KC 5: Twins Ward Off KC Comeback, Win Opener Game 54 | MIN 4, KC 2: Early Lead Holds Up Behind SWR and Bullpen Game 55 | KC 6, MIN 1: Royals Get to Ober Again, Lineup Silenced Game 56 | MIN 7, KC 6: Jeffers and Correa Power Big Comeback Game 57 | MIN 6, HOU 1: Lopez Dominates as Twins Roll Houston Game 58 | HOU 5, MIN 2: Astros Launch Four Homers Off Ryan Game 59 | MIN 4, HOU 3: Miranda Lifts Off, Bullpen Locks Down IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES Royce Lewis's return is officially imminent. The Twins shared on Sunday that if all went well in his final rehab tuneup with the Saints on Sunday – and seemingly they did, as he got through four ABs with a hit, a walk and a strikeout – he was expected to rejoin the team on Tuesday in New York. Minnesota will be getting back their best hitter as they look to build on their recent success and erase the memory of a brutal Target Field sweep at the hands of the Yankees in mid-May. Of course, activating Lewis will require a corresponding move, and it sounds like we have a pretty clear read on who that's going to be. We'll get to that decision in a bit. The Twins made only one roster move over the past week, calling up reliever Diego Castillo as a fresh arm on Monday after sending down Kody Funderburk last Sunday. Justin Topa was moved to the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster for Castillo, who showed some encouraging signs in a pair of scoreless two-inning appearances. I'm not trying to jinx anything or whatever, but it deserves to be noted how much the physical attrition has slowed for the Twins following an early-season flurry. They haven't made an IL move since placing Byron Buxton and Brock Stewart on May 2nd. Buxton has since returned and looks to be in a fairly good place. Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Jhoan Durán are among other key players who've spent time on the shelf but came back strong and without setbacks. Hopefully the same will be true of Lewis soon. To me, this is the under-discussed story of Minnesota's turnaround. They've gotten healthy and they're about to get healthier. They're playing almost at full strength and that has allowed them to rattle off series wins with impressive consistency. Nick Paparesta and the training staff deserve a ton of credit for building on what they started last year. You can't control people getting hurt, but you can control how you address and manage the handling of those injuries. It's tough to argue the Twins haven't been doing an amazing job on that front, based on results. HIGHLIGHTS Amusingly, almost all of the players who appeared to be on the roster bubble in the face of Lewis's impending return enjoyed pretty strong weeks as they sought to make their case for sticking around. José Miranda led the way by adding three more home runs and driving in six, coming through with a game-changing boost on Sunday that put a stamp on his locked-down roster spot: tying home run in the sixth, go-ahead double in the eighth. Trevor Larnach also hit three homers and drove in six runs between his four starts. Alex Kirilloff followed up his big weekend against Texas with three more RBIs on three hits in 11 at-bats. Edouard Julien showed signs of emerging from his lengthy slump, notching four hits and a couple walks in 15 plate appearances, although it looks to have not been enough. Meanwhile, even the struggling veteran contingent managed to post some production. Carlos Santana had one of his better weeks of the season, going 6-for-18 with a homer and four walks in a vintage snapshot. Manuel Margot notched four hits and three walks in 15 plate appearances, and has actually come through in a few big spots of late. These performances from contributing role players served to create a tougher decision for the front office, as they prepare to integrate another core player into their roster mix. Lewis will rejoin a team led by a thriving Correa, who is living up to his big-money contract with stellar play on both the offensive and defensive sides. Correa has resumed being a stalwart defensively at short – improving from 64th percentile in Outs Above Average last year to 93rd percentile – and his bat has bounced back in a big way, with an OPS that is 22 points above the league average. On Thursday he came through with a huge bases-clearing triple to help seal up a series victory over the Royals, shrinking the division gap. Outbursts of production from guys like Larnach and Miranda are great to see, but this team's true upside hinges on that core trio of Correa, Buxton and Lewis being healthy and spearheading the charge. So it's really good to see Correa doing his thing. Buxton's bat still hasn't quite come around, but he's moving around well and at least starting to take some better ABs (three walks last week, four all season previous). I'm encouraged by the fact he appeared in all seven games, starting six, while showing no visible impairment from the balky knee. On the pitching side, Pablo López rebounded after two poor starts the previous week, delivering another brilliant performance against the Astros in Houston. López tossed seven innings of one-run ball on Friday night, striking out six with one walk. Hopefully he's ready to put his short run of struggles behind him. LOWLIGHTS Just in time for López to turn around his downward performance trend, other Twins starting pitchers were doing the opposite. The good ol' ebbs and flows of baseball. Home run regression caught up in a major way with Joe Ryan, who gave up four long balls in Houston on Saturday, after surrendering only seven through his first 11 starts. Simeon Woods Richardson was tapped by the Astros for a pair of bombs on Sunday, equalling the number he'd allowed in his first nine starts. Chris Paddack gave up two home runs against Kansas City on Thursday, his second multi-HR game of the season and first since April 16th. Paddack continues to be a tough one to figure out, often looking like a different pitcher from start to start with wavering variations in velocity and stuff. He's already at 61 innings on the season, putting him on pace for nearly 170, which would easily be a career-high. You've got to think the Twins have plans to give Paddack – coming off his second Tommy John surgery and with just 27 innings pitched in the majors over the past two years – a break at some point in the relatively near future. Cody Pirkl wrote over the weekend about the possibility of calling up red-hot pitching prospect David Festa to fill in for a spell. There is likely no replacement coming for Christian Vázquez, who continues to draw semi-regular starts as the team's part-time catcher while remaining mired in a remarkable void of offensive production. He's clearly not anything close to a good hitter at this point, but you would think at some point a few hits would start falling in for the 33-year-old, who's been arguably the worst in the majors and can't buy a bucket. He managed one single in 11 at-bats last week, dropping his line to .161/.179/.196 on the season. Vázquez has drawn two walks in 119 plate appearances this year. Opposing pitchers are going right after him and he can't do a thing about it. I doubt parting ways with Vázquez is something the Twins would consider, given his contract situation and his persisting defensive value, but that's not really an option at the moment anyway. No. 3 catcher Jair Camargo just started to work his way back from a six-week IL stint in the minors. Kyle Farmer's staying power is probably lower than Vázquez's, even if he appears to have avoided the chop this time around. Farmer was really the only member of the Royce Lewis bubble group to not have a good week, and his role has been severely diminished. The veteran started three games last week, getting pulled from each after two plate appearances. He managed one single in eight plate appearances, and now has a .513 OPS on the season. He hasn't played a complete game front to back since May 21st. TRENDING STORYLINE The mystery around the Lewis roster decision was lifted after Sunday's game, with Julien reportedly hugging teammates following a conversation in the manager's office. The writing was somewhat on the wall with Julien's production stifled over the past several weeks, and his placement in the lineup dropping from the top to bottom against righties. I'm still a bit surprised by this decision and not sure I agree with it. Julien has been a valuable contributor in spite of his offensive struggles, thanks to his much-improved fielding. I'm not convinced Castro is a better option regularly at second, given how it affects his flexibility, and Farmer is clearly not – maybe not even on defense at this point. I realize that Julien has not been at his best but I'd just as soon have him work through it in the majors rather than Triple-A, where he'll likely overwhelm the opposition with his control of the automated strike zone. Is that going to be a meaningfully fruitful experience for the 25-year-old, as opposed to just letting him work through things in the majors? I guess we'll see. There's something to be said for getting some good swings in and feeling the rhythm again. Interestingly, Julien will soon be joined in the Saints infield by Brooks Lee, who's currently rehabbing in Single-A. Matt Wallner also shows signs of finding himself at the plate. The Twins will have some real threats lurking in the high minors as we roll toward the second half. Even though Farmer and Margot may have survived this round, the clock is clearly ticking on these underperforming veterans if they can't pick things up in a hurry. LOOKING AHEAD There's nothing like a trip to Yankee Stadium to test whether the Twins can maintain their mojo. Minnesota was cruising merrily along before running into the Bronx Bombers last time, and it sent them into a weeklong death spiral, from which they've since bounced back admirably. Can Lewis help them avoid a relapse in the House of Pain? Old demons will be at play, especially with Luis Gil – the young star right-hander whom Minnesota traded as a teenager for Jake Cave – set to start against Minnesota in the opener on Tuesday. From there, the Twins head to Pittsburgh, for a series at PNC Park which I will be attending. (Can't wait!) At this point it looks like the Twins will avoid rookie sensation Paul Skenes, though they're slated to run into another one in Jared Jones next Sunday. TUESDAY, JUNE 4: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Luis Gil WEDNESDAY, JUNE 5: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Carlos Rodon THURSDAY, JUNE 6: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Marcus Stroman FRIDAY, JUNE 7: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Mitch Keller SATURDAY, JUNE 8: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Quinn Priester SUNDAY, JUNE 9: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Jared Jones View full article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/27 through Sun, 6/2 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 33-26) Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: +6) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 53 | MIN 6, KC 5: Twins Ward Off KC Comeback, Win Opener Game 54 | MIN 4, KC 2: Early Lead Holds Up Behind SWR and Bullpen Game 55 | KC 6, MIN 1: Royals Get to Ober Again, Lineup Silenced Game 56 | MIN 7, KC 6: Jeffers and Correa Power Big Comeback Game 57 | MIN 6, HOU 1: Lopez Dominates as Twins Roll Houston Game 58 | HOU 5, MIN 2: Astros Launch Four Homers Off Ryan Game 59 | MIN 4, HOU 3: Miranda Lifts Off, Bullpen Locks Down IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES Royce Lewis's return is officially imminent. The Twins shared on Sunday that if all went well in his final rehab tuneup with the Saints on Sunday – and seemingly they did, as he got through four ABs with a hit, a walk and a strikeout – he was expected to rejoin the team on Tuesday in New York. Minnesota will be getting back their best hitter as they look to build on their recent success and erase the memory of a brutal Target Field sweep at the hands of the Yankees in mid-May. Of course, activating Lewis will require a corresponding move, and it sounds like we have a pretty clear read on who that's going to be. We'll get to that decision in a bit. The Twins made only one roster move over the past week, calling up reliever Diego Castillo as a fresh arm on Monday after sending down Kody Funderburk last Sunday. Justin Topa was moved to the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster for Castillo, who showed some encouraging signs in a pair of scoreless two-inning appearances. I'm not trying to jinx anything or whatever, but it deserves to be noted how much the physical attrition has slowed for the Twins following an early-season flurry. They haven't made an IL move since placing Byron Buxton and Brock Stewart on May 2nd. Buxton has since returned and looks to be in a fairly good place. Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Jhoan Durán are among other key players who've spent time on the shelf but came back strong and without setbacks. Hopefully the same will be true of Lewis soon. To me, this is the under-discussed story of Minnesota's turnaround. They've gotten healthy and they're about to get healthier. They're playing almost at full strength and that has allowed them to rattle off series wins with impressive consistency. Nick Paparesta and the training staff deserve a ton of credit for building on what they started last year. You can't control people getting hurt, but you can control how you address and manage the handling of those injuries. It's tough to argue the Twins haven't been doing an amazing job on that front, based on results. HIGHLIGHTS Amusingly, almost all of the players who appeared to be on the roster bubble in the face of Lewis's impending return enjoyed pretty strong weeks as they sought to make their case for sticking around. José Miranda led the way by adding three more home runs and driving in six, coming through with a game-changing boost on Sunday that put a stamp on his locked-down roster spot: tying home run in the sixth, go-ahead double in the eighth. Trevor Larnach also hit three homers and drove in six runs between his four starts. Alex Kirilloff followed up his big weekend against Texas with three more RBIs on three hits in 11 at-bats. Edouard Julien showed signs of emerging from his lengthy slump, notching four hits and a couple walks in 15 plate appearances, although it looks to have not been enough. Meanwhile, even the struggling veteran contingent managed to post some production. Carlos Santana had one of his better weeks of the season, going 6-for-18 with a homer and four walks in a vintage snapshot. Manuel Margot notched four hits and three walks in 15 plate appearances, and has actually come through in a few big spots of late. These performances from contributing role players served to create a tougher decision for the front office, as they prepare to integrate another core player into their roster mix. Lewis will rejoin a team led by a thriving Correa, who is living up to his big-money contract with stellar play on both the offensive and defensive sides. Correa has resumed being a stalwart defensively at short – improving from 64th percentile in Outs Above Average last year to 93rd percentile – and his bat has bounced back in a big way, with an OPS that is 22 points above the league average. On Thursday he came through with a huge bases-clearing triple to help seal up a series victory over the Royals, shrinking the division gap. Outbursts of production from guys like Larnach and Miranda are great to see, but this team's true upside hinges on that core trio of Correa, Buxton and Lewis being healthy and spearheading the charge. So it's really good to see Correa doing his thing. Buxton's bat still hasn't quite come around, but he's moving around well and at least starting to take some better ABs (three walks last week, four all season previous). I'm encouraged by the fact he appeared in all seven games, starting six, while showing no visible impairment from the balky knee. On the pitching side, Pablo López rebounded after two poor starts the previous week, delivering another brilliant performance against the Astros in Houston. López tossed seven innings of one-run ball on Friday night, striking out six with one walk. Hopefully he's ready to put his short run of struggles behind him. LOWLIGHTS Just in time for López to turn around his downward performance trend, other Twins starting pitchers were doing the opposite. The good ol' ebbs and flows of baseball. Home run regression caught up in a major way with Joe Ryan, who gave up four long balls in Houston on Saturday, after surrendering only seven through his first 11 starts. Simeon Woods Richardson was tapped by the Astros for a pair of bombs on Sunday, equalling the number he'd allowed in his first nine starts. Chris Paddack gave up two home runs against Kansas City on Thursday, his second multi-HR game of the season and first since April 16th. Paddack continues to be a tough one to figure out, often looking like a different pitcher from start to start with wavering variations in velocity and stuff. He's already at 61 innings on the season, putting him on pace for nearly 170, which would easily be a career-high. You've got to think the Twins have plans to give Paddack – coming off his second Tommy John surgery and with just 27 innings pitched in the majors over the past two years – a break at some point in the relatively near future. Cody Pirkl wrote over the weekend about the possibility of calling up red-hot pitching prospect David Festa to fill in for a spell. There is likely no replacement coming for Christian Vázquez, who continues to draw semi-regular starts as the team's part-time catcher while remaining mired in a remarkable void of offensive production. He's clearly not anything close to a good hitter at this point, but you would think at some point a few hits would start falling in for the 33-year-old, who's been arguably the worst in the majors and can't buy a bucket. He managed one single in 11 at-bats last week, dropping his line to .161/.179/.196 on the season. Vázquez has drawn two walks in 119 plate appearances this year. Opposing pitchers are going right after him and he can't do a thing about it. I doubt parting ways with Vázquez is something the Twins would consider, given his contract situation and his persisting defensive value, but that's not really an option at the moment anyway. No. 3 catcher Jair Camargo just started to work his way back from a six-week IL stint in the minors. Kyle Farmer's staying power is probably lower than Vázquez's, even if he appears to have avoided the chop this time around. Farmer was really the only member of the Royce Lewis bubble group to not have a good week, and his role has been severely diminished. The veteran started three games last week, getting pulled from each after two plate appearances. He managed one single in eight plate appearances, and now has a .513 OPS on the season. He hasn't played a complete game front to back since May 21st. TRENDING STORYLINE The mystery around the Lewis roster decision was lifted after Sunday's game, with Julien reportedly hugging teammates following a conversation in the manager's office. The writing was somewhat on the wall with Julien's production stifled over the past several weeks, and his placement in the lineup dropping from the top to bottom against righties. I'm still a bit surprised by this decision and not sure I agree with it. Julien has been a valuable contributor in spite of his offensive struggles, thanks to his much-improved fielding. I'm not convinced Castro is a better option regularly at second, given how it affects his flexibility, and Farmer is clearly not – maybe not even on defense at this point. I realize that Julien has not been at his best but I'd just as soon have him work through it in the majors rather than Triple-A, where he'll likely overwhelm the opposition with his control of the automated strike zone. Is that going to be a meaningfully fruitful experience for the 25-year-old, as opposed to just letting him work through things in the majors? I guess we'll see. There's something to be said for getting some good swings in and feeling the rhythm again. Interestingly, Julien will soon be joined in the Saints infield by Brooks Lee, who's currently rehabbing in Single-A. Matt Wallner also shows signs of finding himself at the plate. The Twins will have some real threats lurking in the high minors as we roll toward the second half. Even though Farmer and Margot may have survived this round, the clock is clearly ticking on these underperforming veterans if they can't pick things up in a hurry. LOOKING AHEAD There's nothing like a trip to Yankee Stadium to test whether the Twins can maintain their mojo. Minnesota was cruising merrily along before running into the Bronx Bombers last time, and it sent them into a weeklong death spiral, from which they've since bounced back admirably. Can Lewis help them avoid a relapse in the House of Pain? Old demons will be at play, especially with Luis Gil – the young star right-hander whom Minnesota traded as a teenager for Jake Cave – set to start against Minnesota in the opener on Tuesday. From there, the Twins head to Pittsburgh, for a series at PNC Park which I will be attending. (Can't wait!) At this point it looks like the Twins will avoid rookie sensation Paul Skenes, though they're slated to run into another one in Jared Jones next Sunday. TUESDAY, JUNE 4: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Luis Gil WEDNESDAY, JUNE 5: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Carlos Rodon THURSDAY, JUNE 6: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Marcus Stroman FRIDAY, JUNE 7: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Mitch Keller SATURDAY, JUNE 8: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Quinn Priester SUNDAY, JUNE 9: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Jared Jones
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Through the first third of the season, the Minnesota Twins offense hasn't exactly been the imposing powerhouse we hoped it would be. But they bats have still been pretty decent overall, despite facing some major tribulations, and high-caliber help is on the way. The outlook for this offensive unit remains bright, even if the lineup has been navigating some murky times in April and May. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The biggest concern for the offense heading into this 2024 campaign, as I outlined during the offseason, was the threat of regression coming for three players who were all key contributors to the offense as rookies: Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien. Each of the three posted an OPS+ north of 130 in 2023, during which they were worth a combined 6.8 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs. Well, that sophomore regression bug bit right on cue. Lewis missed almost the entire first two months with an injury. Wallner batted .080 in 13 games before being demoted to the minors, where he's struggled to find himself. Julien has been the most productive of the bunch, but entered play on Monday with a sub-.200 batting average, his OPS+ down 40 points from last year. Julien's unraveling plate approach is forcing the Twins to consider a similar course of action as they took with Wallner. In spite of these developments, through 52 games, the Twins have been almost exactly a league-average offense. Among 30 MLB teams, they rank 16th in runs scored, 15th in wOBA, and 14th in fWAR from position players. In addition to the massive drop-off in production from the aforementioned sophomore trio, the Twins have also endured injured list stints from Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, as well as jarringly lackluster performance from the likes of Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot and Christian Vázquez. The latter, in particular, has been an extraordinary drain: Vázquez ranks last in the majors in OPS (by 40 points) among players with 100+ plate appearances, and has individually accounted for more than 5% of the team's total at-bats. In light of all these hindrances, it really is pretty amazing that the Twins have managed to remain in the middle of the pack as an offensive unit. It speaks to a few different things – how good guys like Correa, Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro and José Miranda have been, but also how much the bar has been lowered for league-wide production as a whole. The average big-league hitter currently has a sub-.700 OPS, which provides valuable benchmarking context. We're in an environment where, say, Buxton's .250/.296/.414 slash line is better than average, even though it's not the level anyone hopes to see from him. Generally speaking, pitchers are running the show right now in Major League Baseball, and that's important to keep in mind when evaluating how teams are performing offensively. All of this is to say that the Twins have really nowhere to go but up. We've likely seen their floor over the first third of the season, and it still was not abnormally bad compared to the league as a whole. The distribution of their run-scoring, with a dominant 20-game run surrounded by drought-filled stretches, has certainly been unusual, but that kind of thing tends to even out in the long term. Meanwhile, reinforcements are on the way. Lewis is rehabbing in Triple-A and could rejoin the lineup as soon as next weekend, restoring the team's best hitter to the No. 3 spot in the batting order. Brooks Lee also started a rehab stint last week, piling up a bunch of hits in rookie ball, and is set to take the next step to Single-A this week en route to St. Paul. In spring training he was making a strong case for stealing a roster spot; Lee's switch-hitting bat looks ready to roll. On top of all that, the Twins also have an outfield prospect named Emmanuel Rodriguez with a 1.079 OPS as a 21-year-old at Double-A. It's only a matter of time before the ultra-patient slugger gets promoted to Triple-A, and from there it's not out of the question he could join the fold with a second-half rookie jolt akin to what Minnesota got from Julien and Wallner last season. It's easy to get caught up in some of the underwhelming performances we've seen and the generally uneven nature of the Twins offense. League-average production is nothing to get excited about. But it feels like what we've seen so far is the downside of this lineup, whereas going forward, it's easy to see plenty of upside. View full article
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The biggest concern for the offense heading into this 2024 campaign, as I outlined during the offseason, was the threat of regression coming for three players who were all key contributors to the offense as rookies: Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien. Each of the three posted an OPS+ north of 130 in 2023, during which they were worth a combined 6.8 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs. Well, that sophomore regression bug bit right on cue. Lewis missed almost the entire first two months with an injury. Wallner batted .080 in 13 games before being demoted to the minors, where he's struggled to find himself. Julien has been the most productive of the bunch, but entered play on Monday with a sub-.200 batting average, his OPS+ down 40 points from last year. Julien's unraveling plate approach is forcing the Twins to consider a similar course of action as they took with Wallner. In spite of these developments, through 52 games, the Twins have been almost exactly a league-average offense. Among 30 MLB teams, they rank 16th in runs scored, 15th in wOBA, and 14th in fWAR from position players. In addition to the massive drop-off in production from the aforementioned sophomore trio, the Twins have also endured injured list stints from Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, as well as jarringly lackluster performance from the likes of Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot and Christian Vázquez. The latter, in particular, has been an extraordinary drain: Vázquez ranks last in the majors in OPS (by 40 points) among players with 100+ plate appearances, and has individually accounted for more than 5% of the team's total at-bats. In light of all these hindrances, it really is pretty amazing that the Twins have managed to remain in the middle of the pack as an offensive unit. It speaks to a few different things – how good guys like Correa, Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro and José Miranda have been, but also how much the bar has been lowered for league-wide production as a whole. The average big-league hitter currently has a sub-.700 OPS, which provides valuable benchmarking context. We're in an environment where, say, Buxton's .250/.296/.414 slash line is better than average, even though it's not the level anyone hopes to see from him. Generally speaking, pitchers are running the show right now in Major League Baseball, and that's important to keep in mind when evaluating how teams are performing offensively. All of this is to say that the Twins have really nowhere to go but up. We've likely seen their floor over the first third of the season, and it still was not abnormally bad compared to the league as a whole. The distribution of their run-scoring, with a dominant 20-game run surrounded by drought-filled stretches, has certainly been unusual, but that kind of thing tends to even out in the long term. Meanwhile, reinforcements are on the way. Lewis is rehabbing in Triple-A and could rejoin the lineup as soon as next weekend, restoring the team's best hitter to the No. 3 spot in the batting order. Brooks Lee also started a rehab stint last week, piling up a bunch of hits in rookie ball, and is set to take the next step to Single-A this week en route to St. Paul. In spring training he was making a strong case for stealing a roster spot; Lee's switch-hitting bat looks ready to roll. On top of all that, the Twins also have an outfield prospect named Emmanuel Rodriguez with a 1.079 OPS as a 21-year-old at Double-A. It's only a matter of time before the ultra-patient slugger gets promoted to Triple-A, and from there it's not out of the question he could join the fold with a second-half rookie jolt akin to what Minnesota got from Julien and Wallner last season. It's easy to get caught up in some of the underwhelming performances we've seen and the generally uneven nature of the Twins offense. League-average production is nothing to get excited about. But it feels like what we've seen so far is the downside of this lineup, whereas going forward, it's easy to see plenty of upside.
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The staggeringly streaky Minnesota Twins stayed true to form last week, extending their losing streak to seven games before once again turning on a dime to win their next four in a row. They haven't been able to gain any ground in a Central division led by two scorching hot teams, but for now the Twins stopped the bleeding and held mostly steady, and that's just what they needed to do. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/20 through Sun, 5/26 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 28-24) Run Differential Last Week: +1 (Overall: +4) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 47 | WAS 12, MIN 3: Slump Worsens with Beatdown in DC Game 48 | MIN 10, WAS 0: Twins End Losing Streak with a Bang Game 49 | MIN 3, WAS 2: Duran Squeezes by to Secure Series Game 50 | MIN 3, TEX 2: Bullpen Locks Down Tight Win Over Texas Game 51 | MIN 5, TEX 3: Another Key HR from Kirilloff Lifts Twins Game 52 | TEX 6, MIN 2: Lopez Struggles Again, Offense Snoozes IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES The biggest news development of the week (month? year??) was Royce Lewis getting the thumbs-up to kick off his rehab stint in the minors. He joined the St. Paul Saints on the road in Buffalo and started at DH for them on Saturday and Sunday, finishing 3-for-9 between the two games. As if to make a statement about the health of his leg (one that the Twins apparently did not enjoy), Lewis immediately stole second base after singling in his first at-bat. This will probably run longer than the typical rehab assignment, since Lewis is coming off a two-month absence, and the Twins have every reason to be cautious and minimize any risk of a setback or aggravation. He could return for the series in Houston next weekend (the very site he debuted last year) but it's also very possible he stays with the Saints throughout the week, joining the big-league club later on their road trip through New York and Pittsburgh. Either way, Lewis is on track to make it back quicker than expected from a scary injury that can sometimes require up to half of a season to heal. The 24-year-old's ability to bounce back again and again from these major physical hurdles continues to be as impressive as what he's accomplished in his (all too brief) time on the field. Fingers crossed that things keep progressing smoothly for him as he ramps up and starts playing defense. Some additional positive injury news from the farm: Minnesota's top two prospects simultaneously fired up their own rehab stints in the minors, with both Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee getting started in the rookie-level Florida Complex League last week. It's great to see Jenkins, out since Opening Day with a hamstring injury, resume his journey to conquer the low minors. But Lee's return to action has greater short-term implications for the Twins and their lagging offense; Lee could be an option to join the team within a month or so if he looks good in Triple-A upon being activated. On the bullpen front, a couple of moves worth mentioning: Jorge Alcalá was recalled in place of Caleb Boushley, and Jay Jackson accepted his assignment to Triple-A following last week's DFA. Kody Funderburk was optioned to Triple-A following Sunday's game, with the Twins expected to call up a fresh arm on Monday. HIGHLIGHTS Several strong performances contributed to a winning week for the Twins, but none were more refreshing to see than that of Alex Kirilloff, who delivered a pair of crucial home runs over the weekend against the defending champs. Mired in a deep funk, Kirilloff's batting average had sunk below .200 before he picked up four hits in his past 10 ABs, including go-ahead homers that proved decisive on Friday and Saturday. Teammates remarked that Kirilloff's showing of emotion after the latter home run, a game-breaking three-run blast, was a rarity. Kirilloff's prolonged mega-slump (he slashed .147/.219/.284 in 35 games from April 8th to May 21st) has played a substantial role in the offense's inability to stay in a rhythm. At his best he's one of the team's top bats, and at a minimum they need him to produce respectably while playing offense-driven positions. It's too soon to say Kirilloff's struggles are fully behind him, but the power flurry over the weekend was extremely encouraging. Also supplying power for the offense last week were Byron Buxton (two home runs in a blowout win over Washington on Tuesday), Carlos Correa (two homers, two doubles and a triple on the week), and Max Kepler, who homered, doubled twice, and drew three walks in five games. The offense as a whole remains pretty uneven and wasn't overly impressive last week, but with these guys swinging the bat well, Lewis on his way back, and Lee building up in the minors, it's easier to feel some confidence in the outlook for this unit. The pitching staff rebounded from a rough start to the week, posting a 2.72 collective ERA in five games after coughing up 12 behind Pablo López on Monday. Joe Ryan, who has emerged as the clear-cut leader of this staff and rotation, fittingly played the role of stopper with a masterful outing on Tuesday, holding the Nationals scoreless over seven innings to lower his ERA to 3.15 on the season. Ryan could make a bid for an All-Star nod if he continues to deliver with this consistency and quality. It was a much-needed week of redemption for Jhoan Durán, who was coming off a Pagán-esque nightmare series in Cleveland and has been raising some eyebrows with his reduced velocity. Durán's save attempt in Washington on Wednesday gave off "here we go again" vibes after he surrendered a homer and single to the first two batters he faced, but the right-hander managed to strand the tying run on base and secure a win before closing out back-to-back wins against Texas at Target Field. You can certainly argue that Durán, who has a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio over his past eight appearances, still doesn't look quite up to his usual standard. But he's mostly getting the job done, and insists that his velocity issues are more mechanical than anything. It's a long season and he's got plenty of time to get right. In the meantime, he'll welcome all the help he can get in the bullpen, which has settled into a nice groove after parting ways with Jackson. On Friday night, Durán teamed up with Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Steven Okert to fire four hitless innings, protecting a one-run lead following five solid frames from Bailey Ober. A similar script played out on Saturday, when Cole Sands threw two perfect innings as a bridge to Durán after a five-inning start from Chris Paddack. That's a formula that Rocco Baldelli loves to successfully deploy. LOWLIGHTS We talked about Kirilloff and his slumping bat being a major factor in the shortcomings of an offense that has scored five or more runs just twice in their past 12 games. But more broadly, it's a lack of all-around effectiveness from their slate of key left-handed bats – sans Kepler – that is stifling the team's run-scoring prowess. Much of the offseason discourse centered on the need to add a right-handed bat to help balance the lineup against southpaws, but as it turns out, the Twins have proven far better against left-handed pitching, with an OPS about 80 points higher. Right-handers have routinely kept this lineup in check, and that's obviously problematic given their prominence in the pitching pool. Like Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach cooled off dramatically after a strong start for the Twins. He's hitting just .192 with one extra-base hit in 52 May at-bats, including 2-for-his-last-25, and hasn't driven in a run for more than two weeks. Pitchers have found pretty reliable ways to attack him, often with breaking balls that run down and in, and Larnach has been unable to make an adjustment. Nonetheless, he was elevated into the leadoff spot on Sunday, due to being deemed a superior option to Edouard Julien, who was finally downgraded from his usual perch atop the batting order as his sophomore slump persists and worsens. A 1-for-13 week with one walk and five strikeouts dropped Julien's OPS to .674, which is rough when you consider his OPS sat at .830 entering May. It's been a truly rotten month for Julien, and his deteriorating plate approach is the most troubling aspect. In the past, Julien has been susceptible to slumps in hitting production but has always been able to offset them with his world-class discipline, drawing enough walks to remain an on-base threat and keep the line moving when the knocks aren't coming. That's gone amiss. Julien has drawn just one walk in his past 12 games and his OBP is dangerously close to falling below .300. Dropping Julien from first to eighth in the batting order against a righty on Sunday was the first step toward trying to address his increasingly worrisome spiral in performance at the plate. The next step might be approaching soon. TRENDING STORYLINE As Lewis works his way back toward the big-league roster, someone's current spot is at risk. It would be unlike the Twins to cut bait on someone like Kyle Farmer at this point, as much as doing so might seem to make sense. The most straightforward swap would be sending down José Miranda, who's been filling in as regular third baseman in Lewis's absence, but given how much the Twins are struggling to string runs together, you wonder if they'd want to subtract one of their best bats. Miranda was 5-for-17 with a homer last week and ranks fourth on the team in OPS behind Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and Correa. In light of what we just covered regarding Julien's downfall, the preferable path might be sending him down to Triple-A alongside Matt Wallner for a sophomore reset of his own, while keeping Miranda's bat available to the MLB club. But that's not as easy to accommodate logistically. Who steps in as regular second baseman in this scenario? Lewis? Moreover, we just talked about how much worse the Twins have been against righties than lefties this year; is subbing in a RH bat for a LH one – even someone who's been scuffling like Julien has – really going to be a helpful solution? I'm not claiming to have the answer either way. But I do think we're at a point where any extreme upcoming week from either player, good or bad, could significantly influence the decision. So it'll be interesting to see how Miranda and Julien perform in the next couple of series ... and also where Lewis is making starts defensively in Triple-A. LOOKING AHEAD A huge series lies ahead to close out the homestand, as the Twins welcome the Kansas City Royals to town for a four-game set. Given how woefully short Minnesota has come up against the other world-beating team they're chasing in the Central, there's some heightened pressure to show up and take this series or at least earn a split. Even if the season is still relatively young, you don't want to be creating distance between yourself and multiple teams ahead of you in the standings. From there the Twins will head to Houston to open a nine-game road trip against the team that eliminated them a year ago. This year's iteration of the Astros is a far cry from past powerhouses, but they've been playing better ball lately and are never an opponent to be dismissed. MONDAY, MAY 27: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Alec Marsh v. RHP Joe Ryan TUESDAY, MAY 28: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Ragans v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson WEDNESDAY, MAY 29: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Seth Lugo v. RHP Bailey Ober THURSDAY, MAY 30: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Brady Singer v. RHP Chris Paddack FRIDAY, MAY 31: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Spencer Arrighetti SATURDAY, JUNE 1: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Ronel Blanco SUNDAY, JUNE 2: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHP Framber Valdez View full article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/20 through Sun, 5/26 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 28-24) Run Differential Last Week: +1 (Overall: +4) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 47 | WAS 12, MIN 3: Slump Worsens with Beatdown in DC Game 48 | MIN 10, WAS 0: Twins End Losing Streak with a Bang Game 49 | MIN 3, WAS 2: Duran Squeezes by to Secure Series Game 50 | MIN 3, TEX 2: Bullpen Locks Down Tight Win Over Texas Game 51 | MIN 5, TEX 3: Another Key HR from Kirilloff Lifts Twins Game 52 | TEX 6, MIN 2: Lopez Struggles Again, Offense Snoozes IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES The biggest news development of the week (month? year??) was Royce Lewis getting the thumbs-up to kick off his rehab stint in the minors. He joined the St. Paul Saints on the road in Buffalo and started at DH for them on Saturday and Sunday, finishing 3-for-9 between the two games. As if to make a statement about the health of his leg (one that the Twins apparently did not enjoy), Lewis immediately stole second base after singling in his first at-bat. This will probably run longer than the typical rehab assignment, since Lewis is coming off a two-month absence, and the Twins have every reason to be cautious and minimize any risk of a setback or aggravation. He could return for the series in Houston next weekend (the very site he debuted last year) but it's also very possible he stays with the Saints throughout the week, joining the big-league club later on their road trip through New York and Pittsburgh. Either way, Lewis is on track to make it back quicker than expected from a scary injury that can sometimes require up to half of a season to heal. The 24-year-old's ability to bounce back again and again from these major physical hurdles continues to be as impressive as what he's accomplished in his (all too brief) time on the field. Fingers crossed that things keep progressing smoothly for him as he ramps up and starts playing defense. Some additional positive injury news from the farm: Minnesota's top two prospects simultaneously fired up their own rehab stints in the minors, with both Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee getting started in the rookie-level Florida Complex League last week. It's great to see Jenkins, out since Opening Day with a hamstring injury, resume his journey to conquer the low minors. But Lee's return to action has greater short-term implications for the Twins and their lagging offense; Lee could be an option to join the team within a month or so if he looks good in Triple-A upon being activated. On the bullpen front, a couple of moves worth mentioning: Jorge Alcalá was recalled in place of Caleb Boushley, and Jay Jackson accepted his assignment to Triple-A following last week's DFA. Kody Funderburk was optioned to Triple-A following Sunday's game, with the Twins expected to call up a fresh arm on Monday. HIGHLIGHTS Several strong performances contributed to a winning week for the Twins, but none were more refreshing to see than that of Alex Kirilloff, who delivered a pair of crucial home runs over the weekend against the defending champs. Mired in a deep funk, Kirilloff's batting average had sunk below .200 before he picked up four hits in his past 10 ABs, including go-ahead homers that proved decisive on Friday and Saturday. Teammates remarked that Kirilloff's showing of emotion after the latter home run, a game-breaking three-run blast, was a rarity. Kirilloff's prolonged mega-slump (he slashed .147/.219/.284 in 35 games from April 8th to May 21st) has played a substantial role in the offense's inability to stay in a rhythm. At his best he's one of the team's top bats, and at a minimum they need him to produce respectably while playing offense-driven positions. It's too soon to say Kirilloff's struggles are fully behind him, but the power flurry over the weekend was extremely encouraging. Also supplying power for the offense last week were Byron Buxton (two home runs in a blowout win over Washington on Tuesday), Carlos Correa (two homers, two doubles and a triple on the week), and Max Kepler, who homered, doubled twice, and drew three walks in five games. The offense as a whole remains pretty uneven and wasn't overly impressive last week, but with these guys swinging the bat well, Lewis on his way back, and Lee building up in the minors, it's easier to feel some confidence in the outlook for this unit. The pitching staff rebounded from a rough start to the week, posting a 2.72 collective ERA in five games after coughing up 12 behind Pablo López on Monday. Joe Ryan, who has emerged as the clear-cut leader of this staff and rotation, fittingly played the role of stopper with a masterful outing on Tuesday, holding the Nationals scoreless over seven innings to lower his ERA to 3.15 on the season. Ryan could make a bid for an All-Star nod if he continues to deliver with this consistency and quality. It was a much-needed week of redemption for Jhoan Durán, who was coming off a Pagán-esque nightmare series in Cleveland and has been raising some eyebrows with his reduced velocity. Durán's save attempt in Washington on Wednesday gave off "here we go again" vibes after he surrendered a homer and single to the first two batters he faced, but the right-hander managed to strand the tying run on base and secure a win before closing out back-to-back wins against Texas at Target Field. You can certainly argue that Durán, who has a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio over his past eight appearances, still doesn't look quite up to his usual standard. But he's mostly getting the job done, and insists that his velocity issues are more mechanical than anything. It's a long season and he's got plenty of time to get right. In the meantime, he'll welcome all the help he can get in the bullpen, which has settled into a nice groove after parting ways with Jackson. On Friday night, Durán teamed up with Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Steven Okert to fire four hitless innings, protecting a one-run lead following five solid frames from Bailey Ober. A similar script played out on Saturday, when Cole Sands threw two perfect innings as a bridge to Durán after a five-inning start from Chris Paddack. That's a formula that Rocco Baldelli loves to successfully deploy. LOWLIGHTS We talked about Kirilloff and his slumping bat being a major factor in the shortcomings of an offense that has scored five or more runs just twice in their past 12 games. But more broadly, it's a lack of all-around effectiveness from their slate of key left-handed bats – sans Kepler – that is stifling the team's run-scoring prowess. Much of the offseason discourse centered on the need to add a right-handed bat to help balance the lineup against southpaws, but as it turns out, the Twins have proven far better against left-handed pitching, with an OPS about 80 points higher. Right-handers have routinely kept this lineup in check, and that's obviously problematic given their prominence in the pitching pool. Like Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach cooled off dramatically after a strong start for the Twins. He's hitting just .192 with one extra-base hit in 52 May at-bats, including 2-for-his-last-25, and hasn't driven in a run for more than two weeks. Pitchers have found pretty reliable ways to attack him, often with breaking balls that run down and in, and Larnach has been unable to make an adjustment. Nonetheless, he was elevated into the leadoff spot on Sunday, due to being deemed a superior option to Edouard Julien, who was finally downgraded from his usual perch atop the batting order as his sophomore slump persists and worsens. A 1-for-13 week with one walk and five strikeouts dropped Julien's OPS to .674, which is rough when you consider his OPS sat at .830 entering May. It's been a truly rotten month for Julien, and his deteriorating plate approach is the most troubling aspect. In the past, Julien has been susceptible to slumps in hitting production but has always been able to offset them with his world-class discipline, drawing enough walks to remain an on-base threat and keep the line moving when the knocks aren't coming. That's gone amiss. Julien has drawn just one walk in his past 12 games and his OBP is dangerously close to falling below .300. Dropping Julien from first to eighth in the batting order against a righty on Sunday was the first step toward trying to address his increasingly worrisome spiral in performance at the plate. The next step might be approaching soon. TRENDING STORYLINE As Lewis works his way back toward the big-league roster, someone's current spot is at risk. It would be unlike the Twins to cut bait on someone like Kyle Farmer at this point, as much as doing so might seem to make sense. The most straightforward swap would be sending down José Miranda, who's been filling in as regular third baseman in Lewis's absence, but given how much the Twins are struggling to string runs together, you wonder if they'd want to subtract one of their best bats. Miranda was 5-for-17 with a homer last week and ranks fourth on the team in OPS behind Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and Correa. In light of what we just covered regarding Julien's downfall, the preferable path might be sending him down to Triple-A alongside Matt Wallner for a sophomore reset of his own, while keeping Miranda's bat available to the MLB club. But that's not as easy to accommodate logistically. Who steps in as regular second baseman in this scenario? Lewis? Moreover, we just talked about how much worse the Twins have been against righties than lefties this year; is subbing in a RH bat for a LH one – even someone who's been scuffling like Julien has – really going to be a helpful solution? I'm not claiming to have the answer either way. But I do think we're at a point where any extreme upcoming week from either player, good or bad, could significantly influence the decision. So it'll be interesting to see how Miranda and Julien perform in the next couple of series ... and also where Lewis is making starts defensively in Triple-A. LOOKING AHEAD A huge series lies ahead to close out the homestand, as the Twins welcome the Kansas City Royals to town for a four-game set. Given how woefully short Minnesota has come up against the other world-beating team they're chasing in the Central, there's some heightened pressure to show up and take this series or at least earn a split. Even if the season is still relatively young, you don't want to be creating distance between yourself and multiple teams ahead of you in the standings. From there the Twins will head to Houston to open a nine-game road trip against the team that eliminated them a year ago. This year's iteration of the Astros is a far cry from past powerhouses, but they've been playing better ball lately and are never an opponent to be dismissed. MONDAY, MAY 27: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Alec Marsh v. RHP Joe Ryan TUESDAY, MAY 28: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Ragans v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson WEDNESDAY, MAY 29: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Seth Lugo v. RHP Bailey Ober THURSDAY, MAY 30: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Brady Singer v. RHP Chris Paddack FRIDAY, MAY 31: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Spencer Arrighetti SATURDAY, JUNE 1: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Ronel Blanco SUNDAY, JUNE 2: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHP Framber Valdez
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This Twins season is already showcasing the many ups and downs of this everyday game. The team pulled out of a brutal early slump, played brilliantly for three weeks, and then once again fell flat on their faces over the past week, with some of the worst performances we've seen all year. Will the real Minnesota Twins please stand up? [chairs scrape] Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/13 through Sun, 5/19 *** Record Last Week: 0-6 (Overall: 24-22) Run Differential Last Week: -24 (Overall: +3) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 41 | NYY 5, MIN 1: Bombers Cool Off Red-Hot Minnesota Game 42 | NYY 4, MIN 0: Pablo Battles, Offense Bottled Up Game 43 | NYY 5, MIN 0: Yankees Sweep Away Punchless Twins Game 44 | CLE 3, MIN 2: Ramirez Beats Duran, Sleepy Twins Game 45 | CLE 11, MIN 4: Slide Continues in Sloppy Blowout Game 46 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Guardians Get to Duran Again in Walk-Off IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. FIND THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES The Twins got back Byron Buxton following a relatively short stay on the injured list. The 30-year-old was activated in Cleveland on Saturday, 15 days after being shelved with knee inflammation, thus giving the team a much-needed defensive upgrade in center field, as well as a boost on the basepaths--where he made things happen late in Sunday's game. In a corresponding move, Austin Martin was sent back to Triple-A, where he'll focus on jumpstarting his offensive game; Martin is batting just .224 with a .644 OPS through 30 big-league games, which doesn't work too well when the defense has largely been underwhelming. In the bullpen, it looks like Jay Jackson's time as a Twin has already reached an end. Last week in this column, I noted that "patience from the coaching staff has to be wearing very thin, especially with Jackson," with his performance going beyond merely bad and venturing into the realm of unusable. Another disastrous outing on Saturday (1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER) proved to be the final straw; Jackson was designated for assignment after the game. We'll see where the 36-year-old goes from here. He might end up passing through waivers and going to St. Paul, but (as Rocco Baldelli noted) unless he can find some of his lost velocity, there's really no chance for Jackson in the big leagues. It's unfortunate to see, as a lot of people (including me) were really rooting for the guy. But bargain-bin reliever signings are what they are. For now, Caleb Boushley has been called up to fill the vacant bullpen spot, although that hardly seems permanent. I would expect to see Jorge Alcalá return soon to assume a similar role to Jackson's. But, with the Twins and Alcalá these days, you never know. HIGHLIGHTS Um, well, let's see. Simeon Woods Richardson pitched pretty well on Friday night, holding Cleveland to one run over 5 ⅓ innings, with no walks allowed and a whole bunch of grounders. He did his part to get Minnesota off to a strong start in a key series, even if no one else answered the call. Through six starts and just over 30 innings with the Twins this year, SWR has a remarkable 2.97 ERA. True, a glance at his Statcast sliders suggests this level of success is probably not sustainable, but regardless, it's really encouraging to see what Woods Richardson is doing at age 23 in the majors, especially given that many had more or less written him off coming into this season. Chris Paddack also closed out the week with a very strong and encouraging outing, holding Cleveland to two runs over eight innings on Sunday – the deepest start of his career – but like Woods Richardson's start two nights earlier, it was all for naught thanks to a lineup that right now is incapable of even putting up a fight. LOWLIGHTS It was simply staggering to watch this offense, which lit up the league – including some very high-caliber pitching – over the course of nearly a month, completely shut down over the past week. They looked about as limp and lifeless as they did in their worst moments during the season-opening 7-13 slump that we all hoped to forget. Over the course of six games against the Yankees and Guardians, Twins hitters batted .166 with just 10 extra-base hits (three homers), seven GIDP, and 36 runners left on base. They scored only nine runs total, and four of those came essentially in garbage time, late in Saturday's blowout loss to Cleveland. The offensive group was so roundly terrible over the past week that it hardly feels worthwhile to call out individual culprits, but these players and performances are especially alarming: Carlos Santana saw his nice little hot streak come to an abrupt halt, following last weekend's three-homer outburst by going 3-for-24 with no extra-base hits, no RBIs, no walks, and seven strikeouts. His OPS, which was briefly flirting with .700, is now back down to .630. When you're getting this kind of production out of your everyday first baseman, it puts a real hamper on the lineup as a whole. Getting zero production from your leadoff man is also a pretty major impediment for a lineup, and unfortunately that's been the case for Minnesota with Edouard Julien failing to find his groove at the plate. He went 2-for-18 without an RBI or run scored, striking out six times without drawing a single walk. Aside from a few flurries of power, Julien's been a far cry from the consistently imposing offensive threat we saw last year. Walks are down, strikeouts are up, and Julien is slugging just .204 in the month of May. Trevor Larnach went 0-for-13 with five strikeouts, extending his hitless streak to 18 plate appearances while drawing starts as the No. 2 hitter. Another key lineup spot delivering nothing whatsoever, which helps tell the story of this offense lately. You hope Larnach's just going through a temporary slump rather than reverting to the famine-over-feast form that has largely defined his inability to break through in the majors. Especially because there are really no alternatives to take his ABs. Alex Kirilloff has been awful for about six weeks and Matt Wallner looks broken in Triple-A. Christian Vázquez carries the lowest expectations of any hitter on the team, given his role as a glove-first backup catcher, but he's still managing to fall drastically short of them. Vázquez went 0-for-9 and fell to 1-for-30 in the month of May, during which he has drawn zero walks. Out of 308 major-league players with 80 or more plate appearances, Vázquez ranks dead last with a .174 wOBA. This looks like an aging, worn-down player who has completely lost his ability to produce anything at the plate, and that is legitimately scary to contemplate with the suddenly budget-strapped Twins on the hook for $20 million this year and next. Beyond all the conspicuously awful performances, what strikes me most is the inability of anybody to step up and break this miserable pattern. Ryan Jeffers launched another homer to open last week but has otherwise cooled from his otherworldly heater, which is understandable. Max Kepler too experienced a not-unexpected downswing. But where is everyone else? Royce Lewis ain't walking through that door. (Not for a few more weeks, at least.) The offensive ineptitude that plagues this lineup is frustratingly contagious, with fruitless at-bats and futile innings continuing to pile up in perpetuity. The Twins managed to post one crooked number in the entire week, and that came in a meaningless circumstance. In six games they went 4-for-32 with runners in scoring position, and three of those four hits came in that ninth inning on Saturday, so again, meaningless. The timing of this collapse could have hardly been worse, coming against a Yankees team that has notoriously terrorized the psyche of Twins fans for more than two decades, and a rival Cleveland team that grew its lead in the AL Central, taking back five games in the standings. It's almost impossible to imagine a more morale-crushing turn of events following that charmed 17-3 run. Seeing the Minnesota Twins sink back into this sorry state after seemingly finding their way out of it makes it pretty difficult to believe this is not – to a large extent – simply who they are. TRENDING STORYLINE If the Twins offense continues to flounder like this, and the front office finds itself looking for a way to jolt them back to life, there aren't many appealing options in the organization at the moment. Brooks Lee remains sidelined indefinitely. The 40-man roster is largely bereft of standout bats. Martin was part of the problem before going down, and Wallner, as we discussed, is a mess. Yunior Severino is batting .148 at Triple-A. But looking down just a little further, to Double-A, we find Emmanuel Rodriguez, who's been the biggest bright spot in the Twins system thus far. While the entire major-league lineup was flailing and failing over the past week, Twins Daily's No. 3 prospect was busy going 6-for-17 with two homers, a triple and NINE walks for the Wichita Wind Surge, improving his OPS season to 1.028 on the season. He's only 21, and you certainly don't want to rush a developing prospect out of panic, but if the Twins are looking to shake things up and find some sort of spark for the offense, it's an option. Really at this time their only option. LOOKING AHEAD A pair of left-handed starters are on tap in Washington, where the Twins will face a sub-.500 Nationals team that offers a decent chance to get right. Get ready to see old friend Joey Gallo, who is batting .129 for his new team. Over the weekend, the defending champs will visit Target Field, with the Rangers in town for three games. Here's hoping for better days ahead. MONDAY, MAY 20: TWINS @ NATIONALS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Mitchell Parker TUESDAY, MAY 21: TWINS @ NATIONALS – RHP Joe Ryan v. LHP Patrick Corbin WEDNESDAY, MAY 22: TWINS @ NATIONALS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Jake Irvin FRIDAY, MAY 24: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Lorenzen v. RHP Bailey Ober SATURDAY, MAY 18: RANGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Chris Paddack SUNDAY, MAY 19: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jon Gray v. RHP Pablo Lopez View full article
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- carlos santana
- christian vazquez
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/13 through Sun, 5/19 *** Record Last Week: 0-6 (Overall: 24-22) Run Differential Last Week: -24 (Overall: +3) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 41 | NYY 5, MIN 1: Bombers Cool Off Red-Hot Minnesota Game 42 | NYY 4, MIN 0: Pablo Battles, Offense Bottled Up Game 43 | NYY 5, MIN 0: Yankees Sweep Away Punchless Twins Game 44 | CLE 3, MIN 2: Ramirez Beats Duran, Sleepy Twins Game 45 | CLE 11, MIN 4: Slide Continues in Sloppy Blowout Game 46 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Guardians Get to Duran Again in Walk-Off IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. FIND THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES The Twins got back Byron Buxton following a relatively short stay on the injured list. The 30-year-old was activated in Cleveland on Saturday, 15 days after being shelved with knee inflammation, thus giving the team a much-needed defensive upgrade in center field, as well as a boost on the basepaths--where he made things happen late in Sunday's game. In a corresponding move, Austin Martin was sent back to Triple-A, where he'll focus on jumpstarting his offensive game; Martin is batting just .224 with a .644 OPS through 30 big-league games, which doesn't work too well when the defense has largely been underwhelming. In the bullpen, it looks like Jay Jackson's time as a Twin has already reached an end. Last week in this column, I noted that "patience from the coaching staff has to be wearing very thin, especially with Jackson," with his performance going beyond merely bad and venturing into the realm of unusable. Another disastrous outing on Saturday (1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER) proved to be the final straw; Jackson was designated for assignment after the game. We'll see where the 36-year-old goes from here. He might end up passing through waivers and going to St. Paul, but (as Rocco Baldelli noted) unless he can find some of his lost velocity, there's really no chance for Jackson in the big leagues. It's unfortunate to see, as a lot of people (including me) were really rooting for the guy. But bargain-bin reliever signings are what they are. For now, Caleb Boushley has been called up to fill the vacant bullpen spot, although that hardly seems permanent. I would expect to see Jorge Alcalá return soon to assume a similar role to Jackson's. But, with the Twins and Alcalá these days, you never know. HIGHLIGHTS Um, well, let's see. Simeon Woods Richardson pitched pretty well on Friday night, holding Cleveland to one run over 5 ⅓ innings, with no walks allowed and a whole bunch of grounders. He did his part to get Minnesota off to a strong start in a key series, even if no one else answered the call. Through six starts and just over 30 innings with the Twins this year, SWR has a remarkable 2.97 ERA. True, a glance at his Statcast sliders suggests this level of success is probably not sustainable, but regardless, it's really encouraging to see what Woods Richardson is doing at age 23 in the majors, especially given that many had more or less written him off coming into this season. Chris Paddack also closed out the week with a very strong and encouraging outing, holding Cleveland to two runs over eight innings on Sunday – the deepest start of his career – but like Woods Richardson's start two nights earlier, it was all for naught thanks to a lineup that right now is incapable of even putting up a fight. LOWLIGHTS It was simply staggering to watch this offense, which lit up the league – including some very high-caliber pitching – over the course of nearly a month, completely shut down over the past week. They looked about as limp and lifeless as they did in their worst moments during the season-opening 7-13 slump that we all hoped to forget. Over the course of six games against the Yankees and Guardians, Twins hitters batted .166 with just 10 extra-base hits (three homers), seven GIDP, and 36 runners left on base. They scored only nine runs total, and four of those came essentially in garbage time, late in Saturday's blowout loss to Cleveland. The offensive group was so roundly terrible over the past week that it hardly feels worthwhile to call out individual culprits, but these players and performances are especially alarming: Carlos Santana saw his nice little hot streak come to an abrupt halt, following last weekend's three-homer outburst by going 3-for-24 with no extra-base hits, no RBIs, no walks, and seven strikeouts. His OPS, which was briefly flirting with .700, is now back down to .630. When you're getting this kind of production out of your everyday first baseman, it puts a real hamper on the lineup as a whole. Getting zero production from your leadoff man is also a pretty major impediment for a lineup, and unfortunately that's been the case for Minnesota with Edouard Julien failing to find his groove at the plate. He went 2-for-18 without an RBI or run scored, striking out six times without drawing a single walk. Aside from a few flurries of power, Julien's been a far cry from the consistently imposing offensive threat we saw last year. Walks are down, strikeouts are up, and Julien is slugging just .204 in the month of May. Trevor Larnach went 0-for-13 with five strikeouts, extending his hitless streak to 18 plate appearances while drawing starts as the No. 2 hitter. Another key lineup spot delivering nothing whatsoever, which helps tell the story of this offense lately. You hope Larnach's just going through a temporary slump rather than reverting to the famine-over-feast form that has largely defined his inability to break through in the majors. Especially because there are really no alternatives to take his ABs. Alex Kirilloff has been awful for about six weeks and Matt Wallner looks broken in Triple-A. Christian Vázquez carries the lowest expectations of any hitter on the team, given his role as a glove-first backup catcher, but he's still managing to fall drastically short of them. Vázquez went 0-for-9 and fell to 1-for-30 in the month of May, during which he has drawn zero walks. Out of 308 major-league players with 80 or more plate appearances, Vázquez ranks dead last with a .174 wOBA. This looks like an aging, worn-down player who has completely lost his ability to produce anything at the plate, and that is legitimately scary to contemplate with the suddenly budget-strapped Twins on the hook for $20 million this year and next. Beyond all the conspicuously awful performances, what strikes me most is the inability of anybody to step up and break this miserable pattern. Ryan Jeffers launched another homer to open last week but has otherwise cooled from his otherworldly heater, which is understandable. Max Kepler too experienced a not-unexpected downswing. But where is everyone else? Royce Lewis ain't walking through that door. (Not for a few more weeks, at least.) The offensive ineptitude that plagues this lineup is frustratingly contagious, with fruitless at-bats and futile innings continuing to pile up in perpetuity. The Twins managed to post one crooked number in the entire week, and that came in a meaningless circumstance. In six games they went 4-for-32 with runners in scoring position, and three of those four hits came in that ninth inning on Saturday, so again, meaningless. The timing of this collapse could have hardly been worse, coming against a Yankees team that has notoriously terrorized the psyche of Twins fans for more than two decades, and a rival Cleveland team that grew its lead in the AL Central, taking back five games in the standings. It's almost impossible to imagine a more morale-crushing turn of events following that charmed 17-3 run. Seeing the Minnesota Twins sink back into this sorry state after seemingly finding their way out of it makes it pretty difficult to believe this is not – to a large extent – simply who they are. TRENDING STORYLINE If the Twins offense continues to flounder like this, and the front office finds itself looking for a way to jolt them back to life, there aren't many appealing options in the organization at the moment. Brooks Lee remains sidelined indefinitely. The 40-man roster is largely bereft of standout bats. Martin was part of the problem before going down, and Wallner, as we discussed, is a mess. Yunior Severino is batting .148 at Triple-A. But looking down just a little further, to Double-A, we find Emmanuel Rodriguez, who's been the biggest bright spot in the Twins system thus far. While the entire major-league lineup was flailing and failing over the past week, Twins Daily's No. 3 prospect was busy going 6-for-17 with two homers, a triple and NINE walks for the Wichita Wind Surge, improving his OPS season to 1.028 on the season. He's only 21, and you certainly don't want to rush a developing prospect out of panic, but if the Twins are looking to shake things up and find some sort of spark for the offense, it's an option. Really at this time their only option. LOOKING AHEAD A pair of left-handed starters are on tap in Washington, where the Twins will face a sub-.500 Nationals team that offers a decent chance to get right. Get ready to see old friend Joey Gallo, who is batting .129 for his new team. Over the weekend, the defending champs will visit Target Field, with the Rangers in town for three games. Here's hoping for better days ahead. MONDAY, MAY 20: TWINS @ NATIONALS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Mitchell Parker TUESDAY, MAY 21: TWINS @ NATIONALS – RHP Joe Ryan v. LHP Patrick Corbin WEDNESDAY, MAY 22: TWINS @ NATIONALS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Jake Irvin FRIDAY, MAY 24: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Lorenzen v. RHP Bailey Ober SATURDAY, MAY 18: RANGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Chris Paddack SUNDAY, MAY 19: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jon Gray v. RHP Pablo Lopez
- 16 comments
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- carlos santana
- christian vazquez
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Great to see! Nelly is the best and I'm sure he'll thrive in this role.

