Nick Nelson

Starting pitching was a defining strength for the Twins in 2023, propelling them to a division championship and postseason advancement. This unit suffered significant talent losses during the offseason, but the club is hoping internal risers can offset the negative impact. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray was not only Minnesota's best pitcher last year but also the team MVP. Replacing the void he left atop the rotation is one of the Twins' biggest challenges following an offseason that yielded no outside additions designed to do so. The front office is hoping that increased roles for returning players and key breakthroughs from young talent can make up for the loss of Gray, who's already dealt with renewed right hamstring issues after signing a $75 million deal with the Cardinals. Even if he was back, there was almost no chance Gray was going to replicate his career year, so one way or another, the continued success of Minnesota's rotation was always going to depend on other returning arms taking the next step. Now the pressure is heightened. Fortunately, it's a group that's well poised to deliver. TWINS STARTING PITCHERS AT A GLANCE Starting Rotation: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland Depth: Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick, Randy Dobnak Prospects: David Festa, Marco Raya, Corey Lewis, Charlee Soto, C.J. Culpepper Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 2nd out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30 THE GOOD Finally, the Twins have a true ace starter. There's really no quibbling with the distinction for Pablo López. After being acquired from the Marlins for Luis Arraez and signing a long-term extension, López bookended a sensational age-27 season by propelling the Twins to their first and last wins. He fired 5 ⅓ shutout innings on Opening Day, and in Game 2 of the ALDS, he blanked the Astros over seven innings in Houston. In between, López was an All-Star and clearly one of the league's most effective, dominant starting pitchers. His 234 strikeouts tied NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell for third-most in the majors, and López ranked 10th among all pitchers in fWAR. On the few occasions where the right-hander got roughed up, it almost always seemed to owe more to bad luck than bad pitching. Statcast corroborates this impression: López's 3.00 xERA was considerably lower than his 3.66 ERA, and was in fact the best in all of baseball. Having celebrated his 28th birthday earlier this month, López is in the heart of his prime. He looks healthy and strong in camp coming off a career-high workload (194 IP). Rocco Baldelli uncharacteristically made no secret of López's status as No. 1 starter this spring, and the righty's presence is easily the biggest reason for optimism about this rotation – maybe even this team. Even in Gray's absence, the Twins should have the ability to go at least four deep with above-average starters, with lots of reason for optimism around the top four entering the season, with the fifth spot more of a question mark. Ober has consistently been good when he's pitched in the majors, and he was as good as ever last year, successfully pushing his own workload to unprecedented heights while looking the part of a worthy No. 2 starter. There was no thought of forcing him to start the season in Triple-A this time around. Ryan also pitched to the level of a frontline starter for a time, before an undisclosed injury in July sent his performance in the tank, but he rebounded after time on the injured list. Ryan is one of the league's premier strikeout artists and has been excellent for long stretches. He's got to keep the home runs at bay, but his upside is easy to see if that happens. There's optimism around Ryan and some of the tweaks he's making to address the issue. Paddack is a key figure in Minnesota's rotation outlook. He looked pretty good in his five starts in 2022 before going down with an elbow injury and requiring Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for most of last year. Paddack threw fire during a late stint out of the bullpen, and has impressed with his stuff and velocity this spring. If the right-hander can stay healthy and pitch up to at least his career baseline (3.93 FIP) he'll be a big factor in the success of this unit. Given the stakes surrounding his improvement, and the implications if he's not up to the task, Varland will be one of the most pivotal players in the Twins rotation picture. He was set to follow the Ober path as a top reinforcement at Triple-A, but Anthony DeSclafani's elbow issues have vaulted Varland back into the rotation spotlight after he excelled in a relief role late last year. The 26-year-old is having a very impressive spring, and there's hope that developing a two-seamer will elevate his game in a starting role. THE BAD DeSclafani was the front office's lone offseason addition to the rotation. Now he's out of the picture before he had a chance to enter it. The veteran came to camp with hopes of moving past last year's flexor strain, but was unable to bounce back and now appears destined for elbow surgery. The Twins still boast a more than respectable starting five, but the depth behind those five is vastly more suspect than it was a year ago. There's far less margin for error, which is troubling because there is considerable potential for error. In every rotation spot behind López at the top, credible concerns exist. Ryan was horrible in the second half, and below average overall. Ober blew past his record workload and got sent back to Triple-A in late August as the team felt his performance was waning. It's striking that despite their strong work throughout the regular season, the Twins didn't trust either of Ober or Ryan to get any leash in a postseason start. Paddack has thrown 27 total innings in the past two seasons and as good as he looked after coming back last year, that was as a reliever. He's a real wild card but the Twins are counting on him to deliver quality innings and help offset their losses, especially with DeSclafani going down. It's a precarious gamble for a pitcher who hasn't thrown even 110 innings in a season since he was a rookie in 2019. Then you've got Varland, who shows promise but has much to prove in the rotation. He has yet to demonstrate he can be an impact starter in the majors; he had a 5.30 ERA and 5.49 FIP in 10 starts last season. From there you start delving into completely unproven prospect depth, via Woods Richardson, Festa and other prospects. There's talent and intrigue within this group but very little major-league experience. THE BOTTOM LINE It's fair to say that the Twins aren't in nearly as good of a position from a rotation quality and depth standpoint as they were a year ago, with Gray, Maeda and Mahle all on hand. At the same time, it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees. The Twins are in much better shape with starting pitching than a vast majority of teams around the league, as reflected by a top six projection from FanGraphs at the position. López is the kind of building block that others envy, and the kind that Twins fans themselves have envied pretty much ever since his idol Johan Santana departed. Ober, Ryan and Paddack have given us reason to believe they can support Minnesota's unquestioned ace as key complementary pieces. But Derek Falvey's pitching pipeline will be tested if more injuries strike. By leaving themselves little room for error, the Twins are leaving themselves ample room for potential criticism. Catch up on the rest of our spring position previews: Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter View full article

Unless they stumble across someone like Nelson Cruz, the Twins have made it pretty clear they prefer to use the designated hitter position as a revolving door, leveraged mostly for situational matchups and partial rest days. We'll likely see that philosophy embraced to the extreme this year, with nothing resembling a clear-cut regular at the position. Image courtesy of Sam Navarro–USA TODAY Sports Last spring, the Twins were shoehorned into a plan at designated hitter that was far from ideal, with Byron Buxton's physical limitations restricting him to DH-only availability. It looked to be working for a while, as Buxton jumped out to a hot start at the plate in April, but as his performance deteriorated, he became a liability in this offense-driven position. As Buck himself acknowledged, by a certain point he "wasn't really helping the team." It doesn't seem like an experiment that Buxton or the Twins are interested in repeating, so while I do expect to see him rotate through a decent amount, I can't envision any scenario where he's starting 80 games at DH again. Instead, the Twins figure to go with a fairly diverse mix of players at the position, giving opportunities to bat-first players and regulars who could use a day off their feet. Let's take a look at how this group shapes up, and where the strengths and weaknesses lie. TWINS DESIGNATED HITTERS AT A GLANCE Starter: Alex Kirilloff Backup: Edouard Julien Depth: Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, José Miranda, Trevor Larnach Prospects: Gabriel Gonzalez, Kala'i Rosario Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 8th out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 16th out of 30 THE GOOD Kirilloff is currently lined up as the primary DH against right-handed pitchers, at least to start the season. He could be very well suited for the task, as a former first-round draft pick and top prospect renowned for his hitting ability. Even through injuries he's posted a decent .274/.329/.440 slash line in the majors against righties, and last year he elevated that to .300/.373/.485, which would be stellar production from the strong side of a DH platoon. Coming off shoulder surgery, Kirilloff has had a very encouraging spring at the plate, piling up extra-base hits. Julien also figures to get some of those DH starts against RHP, though the frequency may be influenced by how his defense looks at second early on. Wallner will probably get used here a decent amount on days where Rocco Baldelli wants to inject a bit more range into the outfield via Willi Castro or Manuel Margot. That leaves Larnach buried on the depth chart and waiting for some sort of opportunity to materialize, either here or in the outfield corners. Having a Triple-A contingency like that on hand is a fine luxury for the Twins; he's slashed .230/.331/.411 against righties in the big leagues and like Kirilloff, the former first-rounder exhibits clear potential for more. The Twins are organizationally very deep on quality left-handed bats, so they shouldn't have much trouble plugging a good one in at DH in those majority of RHP matchups. The flip side of the platoon is where more uncertainty exists. THE BAD If Buxton is healthy and frequently rotating through DH against left-handed starters as a matter of maintenance, the Twins will be in solid shape. But if Buxton's too hurt to play center field he's probably not going to be a great option at DH, even against lefties (last year he batted just .180 against southpaws). Beyond him, the lack of clear right-handed options for this spot is one of the few noticeable shortcomings on a generally well-rounded position player corps. When the Twins face a LHP on Opening Day in Cole Ragans, who gets the nod at designated hitter? One of the catchers? Not the most exciting proposition, coming off the year Christian Vázquez just had, though he did show some power against lefties. Miranda? He's probably not on the roster to start the season, though he could vault himself into this mix easily if he hits. Guys like Margot, Castro and Carlos Santana can plug in against left-handers, but they're known more for their gloves than their bats, making them less than ideal fits at DH. Beyond their core nucleus of Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, the Twins are much more lefty-heavy in terms of their makeup of bats. This puts a special emphasis on two upcoming prospects specifically: Gabriel Gonzalez and Kala'i Rosario, ranked fourth and 13th on our top prospects list. These are promising righty sluggers with the potential to flat-out mash southpaws. Gonzalez, headliner of the Jorge Polanco trade, slashed .310/.360/.556 against them in Single-A as a 19-year-old. Rosario slashed .275/.362/.549 versus LHP en route to earning Midwest League MVP honors for Cedar Rapids. Neither outfielder is considered much a defender, so an opening against left-handed pitchers at the DH spot in Minnesota could be a great ticket to the big leagues for either. But Gonzalez and Rosario are both probably at least another year away from making an impact. THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins have assembled a lot of good bats and we'll likely see a bunch of them filter through the DH spot this year. Between Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner and Larnach, they're going to have plenty of juice against right-handed pitching. Against lefties? That's a bigger question, although there are a number of bats capable of stepping and and producing here. Expect to see a wide distribution of starts at this position, with heavy platooning to provide advantageous matchups on a daily basis. Catch up on the rest of our position previews: Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Right Field View full article

The Twins took another flier on a starter with arm concerns, and they are once again seeing the downside. After experiencing renewed elbow soreness this spring and trying to battle through it, projected fifth starter Anthony DeSclafani looks likely to miss most or all of the season. What are the implications for the Twins' rotation? Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports Anthony DeSclafani has been a very productive, valuable starting pitcher as recently as 2021, which is undoubtedly why he intrigued the Twins as a throw-in to the package they got back from the Mariners for Jorge Polanco. If healthy, DeSclafani seemed like a fine fit for the back of the rotation, capable of helping make up for the quality innings Minnesota is losing from Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. As with past acquisitions such as Chris Paddack and Tyler Mahle, however, the "if healthy" caveat has proven to be a costly one. DeSclafani's elbow concerns were known after he missed the second half of last season with a flexor strain and received a PRP injection to bolster his healing. He arrived at Twins camp reporting that he felt fine, but the elbow didn't take long to start barking again. DeSclafani and the team initially downplayed the issue, but the righthander has been unable to get going. He hasn't thrown in a Grapefruit League game and came out of pitching in a minor-league game over the weekend not feeling great. On Monday, the Twins revealed the corresponding bad news: he's been shut down due to ongoing issues with his flexor tendon and is slated for a consult with orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Nothing has been finalized, but Derek Falvey acknowledged that elbow surgery is on the table. Dr. Meister, who performed reconstructive elbow surgeries on Maeda, Paddack and Mahle, is known as "the maestro of Tommy John surgery" and has been credited with revolutionizing the procedure. With their lone rotation addition going down before the season begins, it seems to be back to square one for the Twins rotation. DeSclafani was meant to provide the sort of additional depth that enabled Minnesota to weather the absences of Paddack and Mahle last year, as those hurlers recovered from Tommy John surgery. Now, Plan A is out the window, seemingly moving their only established contingency plan into the season-opening rotation. Louie Varland has looked great this spring, inspiring hope that he'll be up to the task, but the Twins will surely need to depend on more than five starters this season, and the depth behind Varland is now almost entirely unproven. Monday's unfortunate news coincided with a smattering of tough injury updates on pitchers from the Twins, who shared that Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar will also open the season on the injured list, as will promising minor-leaguer Matt Canterino. Arm-ageddon, indeed. With DeSclafani officially out of the picture indefinitely, will the front office try to find another veteran in the remaining free-agent crop? Notably, both Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain available, with the start of the season 10 days away. It might be time to ask the Pohlads once more about opening the wallet a bit wider. View full article

Rocco was asked about this topic after Bailey Ober's start last Thursday (he was pulled with two outs in the second, then re-entered to pitch the third). Here was his response, FWIW: "It's not just a helpful rule, I think it's a good rule. I think it's good for the game and all of the players that are trying to get ready for a season. We could wedge him in there and keep him going or stick him down in the bullpen to throw by himself to get his work in, which is what you used to have to do, but I think it's a good way of the league adapting and giving the players really an opportunity to get ready. So it's good, I think we'll always take advantage of it as long as it's part of the rules. I think Major League Baseball likes this rule and so do we."

The Twins are relying on internal improvement to help offset the loss of Sonny Gray atop the rotation. Bailey Ober, with a few new tricks up his sleeve, might be their best hope to emerge as a frontliner alongside ace Pablo López. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports FT. MYERS, FL – Bailey Ober was better than you think last year. There seems to be a widespread perception that he was a fine mid-rotation starter, but little more. Opening the season in the minors, and getting sent back down in August, may play a role in that perception, along with his strikeout rate looking pedestrian compared to the likes of Pablo López and Joe Ryan. But when you take a step back and look at the overall numbers, Ober was fantastic: a true top-of-rotation starter from a production perspective. Only 17 pitchers in the major leagues threw 140 or more innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better in 2023. Ober was one of them. What more could you want from a No. 2 starter? Maybe that's why, when asked about how Ober can improve and take the next step this season, manager Rocco Baldelli finds it tough to summon an answer. "Bailey’s a difficult one to talk about in that conversation because he does a lot of different things really well, and has from truly the day he walked in the door at the big-league level," Baldelli said after Ober's latest start against Toronto on Thursday. "Could he go from exceptional to very exceptional? It's like, I don't know, maybe." Possibly, Baldelli too has taken notice of the way Ober seems to be underrated in discussions of the Twins rotation and its caliber. As the Twins skipper points out, Ober has already made a lot of the necessary adjustments and improvements necessary to unlock the success he had last year. So it might be more about sustaining than gaining for the big righty. Still, it's hard to overlook how much pressure is on him, along with Ryan and Chris Paddack, to help fill the void of Sonny Gray's loss. And for as good as Ober was, there are a couple of key areas in which he has a chance to up his game. Fortunately, there have been promising signs on both fronts. The first is fastball velocity. While it plays up for hitters due to Ober's extension and release point, his four-seamer averaged just 91.3 MPH last year, which ranked in the 13th percentile among all major-league starters. The pitch still worked for him, holding opponents to a .306 xwOBA, in part because – as mentioned – it feels like it's coming in harder since he releases it so close to the plate. (Known as perceived velocity.) But this underscores how much more effective that pitch could be if he can add just a couple ticks. Encouragingly, Ober threw a fastball earlier this spring that registered as his fastest ever measured by Statcast (94.8 MPH). He's been in the 92-93 MPH range quite often, including the first couple innings of Thursday's start, though there was a noticeable dropoff thereafter. It should be noted that Ober also flashed increased velo last spring but it didn't carry over to the regular season. Ober doesn't see any secret formula to keeping his fastball in the 92-93 range deeper into starts and through the season. It's a matter of staying healthy, putting his work in, and not overthinking it. "My movement and mechanics are gonna take care of the rest," he said. "I feel like whenever it’s coming out good is when I’m not thinking as much out there and it’s just coming natural." The other area where Ober is aiming to level up his repertoire is the addition of a new breaking ball, potentially to replace his slider, which got hit harder than any other pitch last year (.320 xwOBA). Statcast classifies the new pitch as a cutter, though some people view it as simply a harder slider than the 81-MPH version he used in 2023. "Whatever you want to call it. Something that's hard and goes to the left," Ober said earlier this spring. He's been using it plentifully in spring action as he attempts to "have it pretty dialed in and consistent when the season starts." In his latest outing he threw more cutters (nine) than curveballs and sliders combined (five). The same was true in his previous starts this spring. Averaging around 85 MPH, the cutter gives hitters a harder offspeed pitch to complement his outstanding changeup and big slow curveball. A new go-to breaking ball for Ober? "We'll see what it turns into," he said. "We’ll see what the hitters keep telling us. It’ll be good to have both to play with. Something softer with bigger movement, and then something that’s a little bit harder." Circumstances have changed dramatically for Ober in one year's time. Last spring he was the odd man out in a crowded rotation; now he's an essential fixture in their starting pitching mix, and maybe the team's best chance for a legitimate No. 2 behind López. Fastball velocity and the success of his cutter will be key things to watch early in the season as he looks to add the finishing touches to his already impressive game. While it might be a tall order (pun intended), Ober going from exceptional to very exceptional might be just what the Twins rotation needs to maintain the latter distinction in Gray's absence. View full article

Major League Baseball added a new wrinkle to break the monotony of spring training this year, adding a Spring Breakout game for each team to showcase their top prospects in a head-to-head competition against those from another organization. I was in attendance for Minnesota's first-ever Spring Breakout on Saturday, against the Tampa Bay Rays. Here are some things that stood out. Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports The minor leagues and prospect development are one of the unique aspects of following baseball compared to other sports. There's a whole different universe of teams, players and stories to track throughout your favorite team's system, all summer long, with implications on the future of the big-league club. Obsessing over prospects is one of my most valued aspects of baseball fandom, and I know many readers and writers here at Twins Daily feel the same. As such, MLB's decision to introduce these Spring Breakouts as a league-wide convention in the late stage of camp struck me as an excellent one. It's a way to lean in and celebrate prospect culture, intermingling advanced young players who are nearing MLB-readiness (i.e. Brooks Lee) with teenagers who've barely gotten their feet wet at the pro level (i.e. Brandon Winokur). About 30 minutes after Saturday's standard Grapefruit League contest between the Twins and Rays concluded, the prospect showdown got underway, essentially serving as the back end of a doubleheader at that ballpark. The seven-inning affair saw Tampa's prospects build a sizable early lead before Minnesota broke through with an eight-run third to take the lead, but the Rays battled back to tie the game 8-8, which ended up being the final score. Here are five observations I came away from the prospect showcase with: 1. Jenkins misses out Much of the event's luster was unfortunately siphoned away in the lead-up, as we learned a couple of days beforehand that Walker Jenkins, the Twins' top prospect and one of the highest-rated in baseball, would not participate. Jenkins is dealing with a quad strain that is considered minor. He's still been very present around the minor-league fields while I've been here, and he's still been hitting. It sounds like the Twins just don't want to push him to run at full speed in game situations at this time, which is understandable. But still a big bummer given that Jenkins figured to be the main attraction for this game aside from Rays top prospect Junior Caminero (No. 4 in all of baseball, per MLB Pipeline). 2. Festa throws fire Twins starter David Festa, ranked by Twins Daily as the organization's fifth-best prospect entering 2024, got the starting nod and demonstrated why he's so highly regarded. He may have been a little extra revved for his first-inning matchup against Caminero, against whom he threw his hardest pitch of the day: a four-seamer that clocked at 96.8 MPH. Festa totaled 35 pitches over 1 ⅔ before being removed in the second. He gave up a run on a walk and two hits, but generally looked impressive, striking out three of the eight batters he faced while inducing some ugly swings. 3. Soto is electric yet erratic We've all been waiting a long time to get eyes on Charlee Soto. Minnesota's second pick in last year's draft after Jenkins (34th overall) didn't pitch after joining the organization, setting him up to make his pro debut this year. Minnesota doesn't often pursue high school arms in the draft, especially with such a high pick, but Soto was considered special, boasting a high-octane arsenal that dazzled scouts in the prep circuit. That arsenal was on display when the 18-year-old entered to pitch in the third inning. He unleashed a barrage of fastballs in the 97-98 MPH range, topping out at 98.5, along with several sliders and changeups in the upper 80s. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily to command these pitches, throwing just nine of 21 for strikes and issuing two walks, including one with the bases loaded that led to his getting pulled after recording only two outs. Soto seemed to have his own dedicated cheering section behind him plate. That, along with the opportunity to finally pitch before fans in a pro stadium, might've led to him being a little overly amped up. But his control will be something to watch this season as he gets going in real minor-league games. It's pretty clear the stuff is legit. 4. Emma flashes his skills No. 3 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez is an exciting talent because of his dynamic skill set: power, speed, patience, defense. He started in center field and had a chance to show off some of the things he can do. In his first at-bat he tapped a single the other way, then stole second base. In his second AB he drew a walk with the bases loaded to pick up an RBI. The only hurdle that threatens to hold Rodriguez back is his difficulty making consistent contact. That wasn't an issue in this game but it was apparent during his time on the major-league side this spring, where he struck out 13 times in 24 plate appearances. Then again, he was the youngest player in camp, having just turned 21 at the end of February. 5. Gonzalez gets a hold of one Gabriel Gonzalez, centerpiece of the package received from Seattle for Jorge Polanco, has a rep for two things: swinging at almost everything, and doing damage when he makes contact. Both qualities were on display in the Breakout. In his first at-bat, Gonzalez swung at three of the four pitches he saw, including a couple that were well out of the zone, and struck out. In his second, he came up with the bases loaded and delivered a two-run double, getting the end of his bat on a pitch at the knees from lefty Drew Sommers and poking it into left center. He did draw a four-pitch walk in his third trip to the plate, dialing back the signature aggressiveness a bit, though none of the pitches were close enough to be tempting. Last year, between two levels of Single-A in the Mariners system, Gonzalez drew only 36 walks in 535 plate appearances, but posted an .837 OPS with 18 homers and 84 RBIs. Did you watch this televised prospect showcase on Saturday? What caught your eye? I'd love to hear your thoughts on the game, or the general concept of this Spring Breakout prospect showcase, in the comments. View full article

Is this the end of an era in right field? Entering his final year under contract, Max Kepler's stock is as high as it's been in years. If the longest-tenured Twin can recapture the form he showed in the second half last year, it would bode very well for both his and the team's outlook. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports This will be Max Kepler's eighth consecutive Opening Day start in right field for the Twins. Ever since the 2017 season he's been a constant out there in a career that has included some lofty highs and frustrating lows. Now, we finally appear to be reaching the end of the road for Max in Minny. Kepler evaded the swirling trade rumors this past offseason, but he's due for free agency after 2024 and the team appears in no position to extend or re-sign him. The stakes are high as he looks to bolster his market and help elevate one of the most clear-cut contenders of his lengthy tenure. TWINS RIGHT FIELDERS AT A GLANCE Starter: Max Kepler Backup: Manuel Margot Depth: Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff Prospects: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kala'i Rosario Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 8th out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 10th out of 30 THE GOOD It was business as usual for Kepler last year. Then it wasn't. He slumped his way into the All-Star break with a .688 OPS but then a switch finally flipped for the outfielder. He came out of the break on a six-game hitting streak and never looked back, slashing .306/.377/.549 in the second half and playing a pivotal role as Minnesota went 42-29 to lock up the division. Kepler finished with 2.6 fWAR, third-highest on the team and second-best of his career, which is awfully impressive when you consider that as of mid-July he was at about zero. Just as it seemed he was completing his gradual descent into mediocrity, Kepler stunningly turned the tables and recaptured the high-end form of his 2019 season. Now we'll see if it sticks. Nothing about Kepler's second-half emergence seemed illegitimate. He was crushing the ball consistently, with a 92.4 MPH post-break average exit velocity that led the Twins and ranked 15th in the majors. His approach at the plate was dialed in. Kepler's always graded out pretty well on the Statcast sliders and last year he was blazing red, with all the attributes of a well-rounded star player. Offensive output was the icing on the cake for a right fielder of rare defensive caliber. Kepler's range and athleticism are extremely uncommon in the province of slow-footed sluggers. Over the past five seasons he ranks second among MLB right fielders in defensive value, per FanGraphs. It's been an underrated aspect of the outfielder's value, and when he's hitting Kepler's impact in the field really shines. Over the past few seasons, Kepler has mostly been healthy and available, but he's run into the occasional IL stint. If that happens again, Wallner is an obvious choice to slide over from left. It seems clear that beyond 2024 this position will belong to the strong-armed Wallner, and as we discussed in the left field preview, there's much to like about his outlook now and going forward. THE BAD Kepler's huge second half reversed a long-running trend of performance decline spanning several seasons. Since his career year in 2019, his OPS+ had dropped from 109 to 98 to 92, and the 2023 campaign was looking like another step downward. By the All-Star break, calls for the Twins to move on were loudening. In spite of newly implemented shift limitations, Kepler's signature struggle – generating consistent results when putting the ball in play – continued to hold him back, with a .213 BABIP in the first half. After mid-July it all came together, as Kepler enjoyed a run of batted-ball success like never before, posting a .351 BABIP in the second half. He finished with a career-high .260 average, driven by an overall .288 BABIP that bested his previous career benchmark by 40 points. How much of that was legit and how much was the byproduct of an extended locked-in hot streak? That's really the key question entering a pivotal walk year for Kepler. The talent has always been there, and we've seen sporadic bursts of standout production at times, but outside of 2019 he's never been able to sustainably harness it. Even in looking at Kepler's excellent second half in 2023, we can see the emergence of another negative trend leading up to the finish line, with a flat postseason performance. Another point of regression risk for Kepler is his performance against left-handed pitching. This will be important since it's likely he will be platooned out of the lineup far less frequently than Wallner or Edouard Julien. Kepler held his own against southpaws last year, slashing .250/.320/.432 after posting a .677 OPS against them in 2022 and .509 in 2021. THE BOTTOM LINE Kepler's post-break surge last year secured him a place in the team's 2024 plans, but it's hard to see a future for him here beyond that. The Twins are banking on the right fielder channeling his turnaround into a big year that approximates his 4-WAR campaign in 2019. If he's able to do so it would be huge for both him and the team, setting Kepler up for a big free-agent payday while adding another All-Star performer to Minnesota's potentially loaded lineup. If Kepler lapses once again and reverts to the same sub-mediocre form as he did in the first half last year, the Twins may feel compelled to accelerate their plans for Wallner to succeed him as long-term right fielder. It will be interesting how much his lengthy tenure and status factor into that decision as the team chases championship aspirations and, as always, keeps an eye to the future. Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series: Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Center Field View full article

Much of the Minnesota Twins' outlook in 2024 feels like it boils down to this position. A healthy Byron Buxton is the definition of a game-changer, but the Twins lost a proven veteran safety net behind him during the offseason and could be scrambling if he goes down again. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Unfortunately, contingency planning in center field has been a constant consideration for the Twins front office over the past decade. In 2023, their backup plan worked out beautifully, as Michael A. Taylor was able to step in and deliver with the oft-injured starter once again unavailable. This year the Twins are going in a different direction in the backup role, while hoping the starter can at long last buck a long-running negative trend. Perhaps no position on the roster exposes us all to a wider range of outcomes. TWINS CENTER FIELDERS AT A GLANCE Starter: Byron Buxton Backup: Manuel Margot Depth: Willi Castro, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodríguez, Brandon Winokur Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 24th out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 7th out of 30 THE GOOD Buxton showed up to camp talking a big game about how much better he was feeling, and so far he's been backing it up. In stark contrast to last year, the 30-year-old was able to hit the ground running this spring. He's moving around comfortably and participating in all activities with no issue. He's already made several starts in center, after making zero defensive appearances last spring or summer. Early returns on his latest knee surgery are very promising. That's huge news. As Bobby Nightengale wrote recently for the Star Tribune, "Twins players and coaches believe a healthy season from Buxton is more impactful than any trade or free agent acquisition," and that belief is warranted. Over the past five years, when playing center field, Buxton has been one of the biggest difference-makers in the major leagues (on a per-game basis). His slugging percentage is 11th-highest among all hitters since 2019; he has the best stolen-base percentage in MLB history; and he's a Platinum Glove winner in center. It says a lot about Buxton's sheer talent and physical prowess that last year, even while essentially playing on one leg, he still registered 94th-percentile sprint speed and was in the 91st percentile for baserunning value. He also continued to post impressive batted-ball metrics when making contact and managed a career-high walk rate, as he struggled to consistently find his swing. Buxton is on track to start in center field on Opening Day, which would be a beautiful sight to see. From there, it's going to be touch-and-go all season, as we know, but for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins, a reasonable (albeit optimistic) hope might be to get 100 or so starts from Buxton in the outfield and have him available for the playoffs. It's the type of outcome that would dramatically improve Minnesota's viability as a World Series contender. It's also a major long shot. THE BAD Buxton has played 100 games in a single season just once, in a career spanning nine seasons. He's coming off his most depressing campaign yet, ruined by a knee injury that became a chronic problem. For all the good vibes right now, we have to be realistic, and so do the Twins. That's why they prioritized adding a credible backup option to replace Taylor, even if they waited until spring training was underway to finally pull the trigger. Acquiring Margot gives the Twins a veteran player with 450 career starts in center field, putting a crucial layer of depth between Buxton and the likes of Castro, Martin or Keirsey. If he's starting once or twice a week in center, and plugging into the corner spots against lefties, Margot should be a fine roster piece. If Buxton goes down again, and Margot is needed as basically an everyday player in center – as Taylor was last year – he'll be stretched. Margot was barely above replacement level for the Rays in 2023, rendering him a salary dump toss-in when Tampa sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. He was 9% worse than average at the plate, same as for his career, and while great in the corners, he's a lesser defender than Buxton or Taylor. After Margot, the depth chart gets even shakier, with the Nick Gordon trade removing another theoretical option from the mix. Castro is next in line, but very stretched in center. Martin offers an intriguing skill set at the position with his speed and aggressiveness, but we'll see how ready he is. If Buxton doesn't, Martin would be my dark horse candidate to lead the team in center-field starts. THE BOTTOM LINE A somewhat healthy Byron Buxton is the difference between the Twins being a top-tier or bottom-tier team in the league in center field. It really is that simple, and the FanGraphs forecast illustrates it well enough. Last year, with Buck sidelined, the Twins ranked 24th among 30 teams in fWAR at the position, even with Taylor playing great defense and hitting 21 bombs. This year, they're projected to be seventh, and that's with Buxton making 350 plate appearances. That seemingly modest target is one he's reached just twice in his career, leaving us all to dream on what could be if Buxton finally shakes off the injury woes and stays on the field. At least for now, there's legitimate reason to hope and believe. Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series: Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field View full article

People aren't talking about not having Sonny Gray this year. They're talking about the failure to even try and replace what he provided, which was stable and reliable front-of-rotation impact, and that did play a very important role in their success last year. I don't know why people keep throwing around this stat about having a losing record in his starts like it's meaningful. He was the Cy Young runner-up! Imagine what their record would've been in those games with Anthony DeSclafani starting them.

Traditional powerhouses like New York and Houston show signs of fading, at least temporarily. For an upstart contender like the Minnesota Twins, the window is wide open. Can they seize this opportunity and take command as the big boss in the American League? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports For most of the past few decades, there's been at least one monolithic kingpin looming over the American League, the so-called "team to beat." For a club like the Minnesota Twins, saddled with certain limitations and disadvantages by their market and ownership, going up against the likes of the New York Yankees and Houston Astros has often felt (and played out) like an unfair proposition. Those storied franchises play in two of the country's biggest cities, and they reap the benefits in terms of resources, routinely ranking among the highest payrolls in baseball. Their rosters tend to be star-studded and deeply experienced. It's no coincidence that, of Minnesota's last eight trips to the playoffs, they've been ousted by either New York or Houston in seven. The Twins have plenty of company in this regard. The Yankees were a dynastic postseason force around the turn of the century, reaching the World Series seven times from 1996 through 2009 and winning five titles. Then, New York's long stretch of domination finally reached an end. From 2010 to 2016, the AL felt like more of an open race, with the Yankees failing to hold strong in October and even missing the playoffs three times. Notably, four of the seven World Series during this span featured teams from the American League Central: Detroit in 2012, Kansas City in 2014 and 2015, and Cleveland in 2016. No team from the division has gone since, of course, because starting in 2017, the Houston Astros dynasty was officially underway. Houston has been to the ALCS seven straight years, reaching the World Series four times and winning it twice. Not since New York's late '90s run had any team in baseball managed such a prolific and consistent run of postseason success. They've been blocking the way for other AL contenders in similar fashion. Last year, as the Twins prepared to face the Astros in the playoffs, I spat out a bit of a hot take: "Houston looks like a declining dynasty whose über-impressive reign in the AL may be reaching its end." Not your older brother's Astros, I declared. They went ahead and shut me up by defeating Minnesota 3-1 in the series to advance to the ALCS, where they fell to the Rangers. But I still believe the underlying point--that many of the Astros' key players are aging and showing signs of decline--is a valid one that could influence the American League's outlook, this year and beyond. Already, 41-year-old ace Justin Verlander is dealing with shoulder issues that will force him to open the season on the injured list. And what about the good ol' Yankees? Now going on 15 years removed from their last World Series appearance, they are looking to revive their reputation as a powerhouse, and they made an emphatic move to assert themselves as such with the blockbuster addition of Juan Soto. But in contrast to all the good vibes and positive storylines in Twins camp, New York is besieged by early challenges with their most critical players. Gerrit Cole is experiencing elbow issues and is slated for an MRI. Aaron Judge is reportedly feeling "beat up" already by the spring training grind, after missing nearly two months last year with a toe injury that he acknowledged will require "constant maintenance" going forward. It also must be noted that, even with Cole winning the Cy Young and Judge posting a 1.019 OPS last year, the Yankees still only won 82 games and finished in fourth place. Despite their star power and MLB-leading payroll, the Yankees just aren't all that imposing. They're gonna have a hell of a fight on their hands just getting out of the AL East. The landscape of the American League feels very different from the National League, where two "super teams" are entering the season as heavy favorites. It'd be a surprise if anyone gets past both the Dodgers and Braves, though as the Diamondbacks showed us, it can happen. Meanwhile, in the AL, plenty of teams have legit shots, even if Houston and New York remain slight favorites. Here's a look at the current pennant odds for both leagues, per FanDuel: NL Winner Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers (+165) Atlanta Braves (+215) Philadelphia Phillies (+800) St. Louis Cardinals (+1600) Chicago Cubs (+1700) AL Winner Odds Houston Astros (+380) New York Yankees (+460) Texas Rangers (+600) Baltimore Orioles (+650) Seattle Mariners (+900) Minnesota Twins (+900) Toronto Blue Jays (+1000) Tampa Bay Rays (+1300) That's eight AL teams with better odds to reach the World Series than all but three NL teams. An open race. With the American League's two highest-spending and most imperious teams looking vulnerable, the window is now thrust open for other aspiring contenders to break through and take a shot at establishing their own dynasties. The Twins, who have the best odds of any AL team to win their division, are obviously at the center of that mix. They'll need to fend off the defending champs, of course. Then again, the Texas Rangers, too, had a quiet offseason amid TV revenue uncertainty. (One of their biggest additions was Tyler Mahle.) The Rays are always going to be a factor. The Orioles are on the rise, bolstered by the addition of Corbin Burnes. The Jays will be formidable again. The Mariners are in a similar spot to the Twins, with a powerful lineup and good pitching. Fortuitously, all of these other teams happen to reside outside of the Central, meaning they'll be battling each other (and the Yankees and Astros) all year while Minnesota is poised for relatively smooth sailing if they play up to expectations. The opportunity in front of the Twins to rise above this clustered pack is part of why I'm so disappointed that they chose to dial back this offseason, rather than putting their foot on the gas. The failure to replace Sonny Gray with another frontline talent sticks out as a notable miss, but there's always the trade deadline. With or without Gray, Minnesota does have all the ingredients for a hugely successful season and deep playoff run: ace starter, high-powered bullpen, and a star-studded lineup featuring proven October performers. Don't sleep on them as the potential best team in the American League and No. 1 seed for the playoffs. Relative to past years, there is little standing in their way--other, perhaps, than themselves. 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Matt Wallner was built to be a right fielder, with the kind of defensive skill set that scouts dream on at the position (namely his scale-topping arm strength). For now, though, right field remains occupied by longtime tenant Max Kepler, so Wallner and his boom-or-bust offensive profile are staying in left. Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports Left field has hosted some of the great power-hitting performances in modern Twins history – from Jacque Jones to Josh Willingham to Eddie Rosario. Last year a rookie entered the fold capable of mashing with the best of these storied sluggers. But Matt Wallner has plenty to prove entering his first full season, and the long-term plan in left field isn't totally clear with the 26-year-old presumably shifting to right after this year. Here's a rundown of Wallner's outlook as primary left fielder, and what's behind him on the depth chart, now and going forward. TWINS LEFT FIELDERS AT A GLANCE Starter: Matt Wallner Backup: Manuel Margot Depth: Willi Castro, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach Prospects: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Austin Martin Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 14th out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 19th out of 30 THE GOOD Wallner isn't competing for a starting job this spring – left field belongs to him. That's how convincing his showing in 76 games as a rookie for the Twins was. The Forest Lake native launched 14 homers and posted a 139 OPS+ in 214 plate appearances, flashing the core attributes of a prototypical power bat. He ranked third on the Twins in average exit velocity, third in launch angle, and second in barrel rate. The slugging was impressive, but mostly expected. What really made Wallner's debut exciting was the well-rounded nature of his play. He drew walks at a strong 11% clip. He found enough hits outside of the homers to produce a respectable .249 batting average. He played solid defense, despite mostly being used at a position that he rarely played while coming through the system. (In the minors, 258 of Wallner's 281 defensive starts came in right field.) This isn't a one-trick pony. Wallner is a ballplayer. But to be sure, pure raw power is the main attraction here. It's the trait that got him drafted in the first round (in 2019), earned him Minor League Player of the Year honors (in 2022) and holds his ticket to potential stardom in the big leagues. Wallner has the kind of power where – when he connects – everyone in the park knows it's gone at that moment. The clip below exemplifies this well: It will be exciting to see what Wallner can do in a full season. His underlying metrics weren't good just by Twins standards last year – they were elite by the league's standards. His 18.8% barrel rate would've ranked third in the majors if qualified, behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. His average exit velocity was the same as Mike Trout's. As long as he keeps regression at bay, Wallner is going to be a lethal force against right-handed pitching, and possibly the cleanup hitter. Against lefties, it's best to keep him shielded. Wallner batted .119 against southpaws last year. The addition of Margot forms a natural platoon partnership in left, and heading into the season, that's probably the tentative plan. Margot doesn't have much power, especially in comparison to Wallner, but he's a career .281 hitter against LHP with a .341 on-base percentage, and a superior defender in left. Margot will be a great backup to Wallner so long as he's not needed in center. That's a fairly big caveat. In all likelihood, we'll see a lot of Castro here, probably a fair amount of Martin, and maybe a bit of Kirilloff if Carlos Santana is stationed at first. Larnach will be stuck in Triple-A waiting for an opportunity, which is unfortunate for him but convenient for the Twins. I still believe in his bat. THE BAD I mentioned earlier that Wallner was among the team leaders in exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate. You know who led the Twins in each of those categories? Joey Gallo. Point being: hitting the ball hard doesn't mean much if you're getting beaten in a vast majority of your at-bats. That didn't happen to Wallner in his limited rookie sample, but it's clearly the concern going forward as the league adjusts. His playoff performance gave a glimpse of Wallner's downside, as opposing pitchers were able to bear down and neutralize his threat, holding him hitless in eight at-bats. He's going to have spells where he slumps badly and strikes out a ton. It's the nature of the beast for his player profile. Minimizing and mitigating those rough patches will hold the key to his sustained impact. Wallner managed to keep his strikeouts relatively in check as a rookie. His 31.5% K-rate would've led the majors in 2003 but ranked fifth on the Twins in 2023; in other words, it's not really an extreme whiff profile in today's game. If he remains in that range, one can feel fairly confident in the 26-year-old's continued offensive success. Regardless of what happens with Wallner this season, the future in left field feels uncertain thereafter. With Max Kepler expected to depart as a free agent, the door will be open for Wallner to move back to his natural position, leaving left field unspoken for. Unless Larnach can find a way to re-establish himself this year, it's anyone's guess who might be next in line. Right now, the next best hope internally looks like Emmanuel Rodriguez, who we have ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the system. He's currently a center fielder but generally viewed as a future corner guy, and Rodriguez could be knocking on the door of the majors by year's end. Like with Wallner, his ability to make consistent contact will be make-or-break. Gabriel Gonzalez, the centerpiece of the Jorge Polanco trade, could also be a factor here in the years to come. But in all likelihood both players are multiple seasons away from being impact big-leaguers. They need to show they can handle the high minors before they enter the conversation to become next in a lineage of slugging Twins left fielders. THE BOTTOM LINE Keeping Kepler on the roster for one final go means the Twins have a bit of an overabundance of corner outfielders, in the short term. And so Wallner goes to left, Castro stays on the bench, and Larnach remains in Triple-A as an insurance policy, while Rodriguez and Gonzalez are free to develop in the minors unrushed. These are all good things, as far as the team is concerned – layers of depth to protect against injury or extreme regression. Larnach in particular is a luxury, a 27-year-old former first-rounder who has mashed in the minors and performed decently in the majors. Even with Nick Gordon – who led the team in left field starts two years ago – shipped out, the Twins have plenty of current and future depth, with the addition of Margot rounding things out nicely. It will be very interesting to see how this position takes shape for Minnesota in the years ahead, because the likelihood of Wallner remaining here past 2024 feels very low. Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series: Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop View full article

Minnesota's fifth starter has been hurt in camp and is behind schedule. With Anthony DeSclafani's status for the start of the season in doubt, it's worth mapping out the team's early schedule to get a read on how they might handle the rotation and delay a decision. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Anthony DeSclafani missed almost the entire second half last year with a flexor strain, which is often – but not always – a precursor to a more serious elbow injury or surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) and stem cell injections in August to boost healing, rehabbed during the offseason, and showed up to Twins camp reporting that he was 100 percent. However, the 33-year-old has been slowed this spring by renewed soreness in his elbow, putting him behind schedule in his build-up. It's natural for this development to set off alarms but DeSclafani downplayed the severity of the issue, and no imaging was done, which is telling. Hopefully just a hiccup. He threw a bullpen on Friday and told reporters he felt good. We should learn more on Monday or Tuesday. Even in a best-case scenario, DeSclafani might have a tough time building up adequately to be prepped for a normal start on April 2nd, when the Twins play their fifth game. Opening Day is suddenly only 18 days – or about three rotation turns – away, and DeSclafani has still seen zero game action this spring. If there are any setbacks or something more serious comes to light, the Twins will need to figure out another plan for the fifth starter role to start the season. (Hello, Louie Varland – having a great spring so far, for what it's worth.) If indeed this was a bump in the road, and DeSclafani is able to start getting into games and ramping up, the Twins will take whatever time they can buy before they need to call upon him in the regular season. Luckily, the early schedule is set up to accommodate them, at least for a bit. Here's a mapping of the first eight games of the season, and which pitchers I would expect to start them: March 28, @ KC: Pablo López March 29: Day off March 30, @ KC: Joe Ryan March 31, @ KC: Bailey Ober April 1: Day off April 2, @ MIL: Chris Paddack April 3, @ MIL: Pablo López (+1 day rest) April 4, vs CLE: Joe Ryan (standard rest) April 5: Day off April 6, vs CLE: Bailey Ober (+1 day rest) April 7, vs CLE: Chris Paddack (standard rest) April 8, vs LAD: ??? This is where things get interesting. Thanks to three days off mixed into the first two weeks, the Twins were able to easily skip the fifth starter the first time through the rotation. They could do so again here, because López is available on standard rest, as Ryan would be the following day. But at that point they'd need to make a call. After getting a break following the home opener, they play 12 straight days. One way or another, someone outside of the top four is going to be needed against Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers. If it's DeSclafani, the Twins had better be confident he's primed for the task, having seen zero game action since last July. If it's Varland, we'd better hope his adjustments to cut down on homers prove to be effectual, because that's a lineup that will feast on mistakes. Another possibility, I suppose, is that the Twins could open the season with DeSclafani on the 15-day injured list, carry a long reliever (e.g. Brent Headrick or Matt Canterino) in his place, and then use that pitcher as the bulk guy in a bullpen game against Los Angeles. This would give Rocco Baldelli a very deep bullpen for the first stretch of games, and would give DeSclafani a full month from now to get himself up to game speed. He'd be eligible to be activated from the IL on April 12th, in time for his next turn in the rotation after skipping the first two. We'll know more soon about the plan for DeSclafani. If things are going to get back on track with him, as he indicated, then the Twins will be facing a timing crunch with the start of the season less than three weeks away. But there are strings they can pull to accommodate his delayed timeline and try to get him in a good place for his first start with the new club. How would you handle the opening stretch of the schedule? Would you show patience to stick with DeSclafani or go another direction? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments. View full article

The first season of Carlos Correa's mega-deal with the Twins was mostly underwhelming, but ended on a high note. Now he's looking to rebound into MVP-caliber form, while leading a team with clear World Series aspirations. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins managed to win the AL Central and advance in the playoffs last year despite receiving a career-worst season (by far) from Carlos Correa, freshly signed to a franchise-record $200-million contract. Imagine what they're capable of this year, if he can return to something resembling his typical All-Star form. That's what the Twins are banking on from their $36 million man, whose salary accounts for more than a quarter of total payroll. Spending limitations prevented the front office from being able to add much around Correa and their young core this year, so the Twins will need him to elevate and earn the hefty paycheck on the field if they want to achieve their ambitious goals. TWINS SHORTSTOPS AT A GLANCE Starter: Carlos Correa Backup: Kyle Farmer Depth: Royce Lewis, Willi Castro Prospects: Brooks Lee, Danny De Andrade Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 15th out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30 THE GOOD In a very disappointing 2023 campaign, Correa left a strong lasting impression, posting an .840 OPS in 15 September games and then starring for the Twins in October, where he batted .409 with three doubles and four RBIs in six games. Delivering when it counted most (along with his obvious leadership impact and dependable availability) made it feel like the team got no shortage of value from Correa, even as his on-field results suffered. While there were definitely concerning signs in his performance decline, Correa is still only 29 and was battling plantar fasciitis for much of the season, so there's reason to view 2023 as a blip, rather than a trend. He experienced similar offensive struggles in the abbreviated pandemic season, when he slashed .264/.326/.383, but bounced back with a career-high 6.2 fWAR in 2021. Minnesota is hoping he's got a similar turnaround in him now, at a critical moment. Early signs in camp are promising. Correa says he's now pain-free, after the foot issue lingered into the offseason. He reports that he worked on his mechanics during the winter to gain more confidence in his swing, which was evidently out of whack last year. At his best, Correa is clearly one of the best shortstops in baseball, and his impact goes well beyond what he provides on the field. Even a modest offensive rebound would make him a highly valuable overall asset to the team, while a return to his previous norm will likely put him in the MVP conversation. THE BAD It's convenient to pass off Correa's unprecedented struggles last year as entirely the byproduct of his plantar fasciitis, and to assume he'll put it all behind him now that the issue has (ostensibly) been resolved--maybe too convenient. Correa was originally diagnosed with the foot injury on May 24. At that point, he was slashing .213/.302/.396, which is nearly identical to his total line for the season (.230/.312/.399). April, when the shortstop was theoretically most healthy, was in fact his worst month. As the season progressed, Correa never managed to get going, grounding into a league-leading 30 double plays as he persistently failed to make authoritative contact. In particular, Correa struggled to crush fastballs, posting a -5 Run Value against them after being plus-17 in 2022. And while he made plenty of flashy plays in the field, his defensive metrics were more ordinary than elite, for a second consecutive campaign. It's difficult to parse how much of this can be attributed to aging, versus physical decline, versus randomness, versus the foot injury specifically. I guess we'll find out soon enough. But it's impossible for Correa's tumultuous free-agent journey prior to last season not to loom in one's mind, when it was followed by such poor performance in year one. THE BOTTOM LINE As he proved last year, it'll take a lot to force Minnesota's unofficial captain off the field. In the event he does get sidelined, Farmer is the top backup, having started 27 of the 28 games Correa missed last year, and Castro is back as secondary depth. In a career-worst year for Correa, the Twins still ranked in the middle of the major-league pack for shortstop production and snapped a 20-year postseason curse. Just think what they can do if he manages to prove that 2023 was, indeed, an outlier. Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series: Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base View full article

At long last, Royce Lewis smashed onto the scene with an unforgettable rookie season, cementing his status by adding a sensational performance in the playoffs. The hype train is full steam ahead as Lewis looks to put his health troubles behind him and stay on track as a budding superstar. Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports Third base is a tough position. It has a high offensive standard but also a considerable degree of defensive difficulty, requiring springy athleticism, quick reflexes and a strong arm. Players who can field the position well and produce at the plate – often former shortstops – are highly valued, and represent some of the league's biggest stars, from Jose Ramirez to Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado and beyond. Following an arduous journey for their former No. 1 overall pick, the Twins hope they now have a player capable of ranking among these heavyweights. Their true ceiling as a team this year largely hinges on it. TWINS THIRD BASEMEN AT A GLANCE Starter: Royce Lewis Backup: Kyle Farmer Depth: Willi Castro, José Miranda, Austin Martin Prospects: Brooks Lee, Danny De Andrade, Tanner Schobel Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 10th out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30 THE GOOD It took a little longer than everyone hoped, but Lewis has finally arrived, looking very much like the franchise centerpiece that Minnesota envisioned when they drafted him first overall seven years ago. Well, maybe not specifically what they envisioned; the ultra-athletic Lewis always flashed star potential, but back when he was a wiry teenage shortstop with blazing speed we might not have pictured him as a buffed up slugger with 40-HR power. Since being drafted, Lewis has lost a bit of his high-end speed while maturing physically and enduring multiple major knee injuries. But he's still pretty fast, and he's added enough power to swap that in as a top-shelf skill. In just 70 big-league games, the 24-year-old has launched 17 home runs (including five grand slams) and slugged .549. That's not including the four postseason bombs that legitimized his breakout on the national stage. Despite his relatively small sample of play in recent years, Lewis's performance in 2023 was convincing for all who witnessed. MLB Network now has him ranked as a top 100 player in the game. Vegas has him on par with the likes of Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve in terms of MVP odds. The typically conservative FanGraphs system projects a 4-WAR season, which is All-Star level. Lewis was solid defensively in his first go at third base, and it should be noted: this really was his first go. Although he played some third in high school, Lewis had barely fielded the position in the minors before being thrust into it full-time as a big-league rookie. With experience under his belt and a full spring to sharpen up, I wouldn't be surprised to see the former shortstop elevate his defensive impact significantly at the hot corner. THE BAD Even if he continues to be a great player, and maybe even the team's best player, fans should brace for some level of regression following the ridiculous run we saw from Lewis last year. His .393 wOBA would've ranked ninth among qualified big-leaguers, between Juan Soto and Bryce Harper – an awfully high bar for his first full season. With that said, Lewis's name hardy feels out of place being mentioned alongside those greats, which says a lot. His emphatic showing last year erased almost all doubt regarding his ability. Availability, on the other hand, remains a question mark. His arrival in the majors was sidetracked by back-to-back ACL tears. Even after making his triumphant return last year, the third baseman was plagued by soft-tissue injuries, to the point where he nearly had to sit out the playoffs. All signs are positive health-wise in early spring, but the Twins have been conditioned to plan for the possibility of life without Lewis. In the event he becomes unavailable, third base loses much of its luster for the club, with Farmer and Castro as the veteran backups and Lee as the possible solution in a long-term scenario. Having a top prospect on deck as a fallback, in the event of another lengthy absence from Lewis, is a pretty good place to be. But as mentioned in the second base preview, expectations for Lee should be kept in check as a rookie. One wild-card in the deck here is Miranda. He was the team's Opening Day starter at third last year, but now his viability at the position feels very much in question. His defensive chops at third were never considered strong, and last year Miranda looked especially rough before he was shut down, but who knows how much the shoulder injury factored into that. If Lewis gets sidelined early in the season, and Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Santana are holding it down at first, Miranda could get one more chance to step back in at the hot corner. We'll need to see Miranda get any kind of action defensively this spring before that possibility comes into play, however. He continues to be limited to DH duty for now. THE BOTTOM LINE An intermingling of top prospects past and present, with Royce Lewis supplanting José Miranda and diverting the path of Brooks Lee. If Lewis gets sidelined again, Miranda is in the mix with Farmer, Castro and others as a short-term fill-in, with Lee lined up as a longer-term replacement if needed. There are contingencies in place should something go amiss with Lewis, but the team's potential really depends on him continuing to feature as the heart of the lineup as he did last season and in the playoffs. Now that he's finally entering a season healthy and experiencing a normal big-league camp, it really feels like the sky is the limit for Lewis and the Twins at third base. Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series: Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base View full article