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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Nice bounce back win! Now let’s take the series tomorrow.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Your points are well taken. Going into this season, there was much hope that we had some developing depth among our prospect starters. Outside of Ryan, has that really occurred? Catching is an issue. It’s too bad Jeffers got hurt as his bat was just coming around. I think he’s a solid major league catcher. Assuming we can’t get Correa to stay, the Lewis injury really hurt. He’s a special young man. Assuming he returns and can perform as he was, I’m quite content with an infield of Arraez/Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis and Miranda with those five essentially playing everyday in some capacity (including DH, but we have to slot in Buxton as DH as well). Btw, outside of Polanco - who is on a very attractive contract - all of those players are cheap and tied up for a while. Buxton, Larnach, possibly Kepler, and/or some combo of Martin, Wallner and Celestino in the outfield are solid enough. Gordon and Steer are our utility players. Buxton (notwithstanding Kepler if we keep him but his salary may be better utilised applied to pitching), is the only one of that group who costs money. So plenty of money to throw at building/rounding out our starting staff, rebuilding our relief core around Duran and Jax, and adding catching depth. Just my opinion, but I like our core of controllable youngsters and financial flexibility over the next several years. That is why I’m a seller of anyone not likely to contribute and/or is expensive if we can add to this core and build our staff. This would sadly include Correa if we can’t lock him up (which I’d love to see happen). One other thing though - Rocco’s performance needs to be seriously evaluated. I’m not convinced he’s the right manager (there, I touched the third rail).
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Did we all see what the M’s gave up for Castillo? We’d have to completely gut our prospect list to get to that level - and we need 3-4 Castillo types to realistically have any chance to contend. The data points are there. It’s ok to take a step back and reevaluate where this team truly stands with a clear mind and open eyes. Sure - we are clinging to a rapidly evaporating division lead. But we are obviously more than one or two players away. Our window should be more open next year and then the following year than it is now. Any moves we make should be to enhance that realisation, not jeopardise it. Watching last night’s game, I was dumbfounded and saddened to see Rocco leave our top young starter in to give up 10 runs. After Machado it was perfectly clear to everyone it was not Ryan’s night. Rocco leaves him in to get battered for four more runs to get one more out. That was inexcusable. I hope Ryan can either forget or learn from that. Psyche’s in young pitchers can be tricky. Looking for a strong rebound game today!
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. And let’s not forget the two walks. That’s inexcusable. But we shouldn’t let Duran off the hook either. He had a walk fest going in the 8th and came within a cross up of walking in the go ahead run (given how things are going, I’m surprised that pitch didn’t go the backstop lol). Really just more of the same mental mistakes that we’ve come to expect - yesterday it was relievers walking multiple batters late in the game and a base running error that likely cost us at least one crucial run. It’s like little league out there sometimes. But sadly getting to be so typical.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    I seem to recall in Ball Four Bouton describing the Seattle Pilots’ pitchers meeting before a game around that era to go through how they were going to approach each Twins hitter in the lineup. At the end of the meeting they had eight “ok, I guess we just pitch around hims”. Also, Oliva and Kaat are still studs well into their 80’s, Geez, those guys are really doing well. I could only wish to be that sharp and active when (if) I get there.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Arraez is really good - what an incredible at bat to drive in two and open up the lead. Wow.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of different opinions already. Love it. The decision likely rests on a number of factors. Consider the following: 1, What is the probability that Correa is back next year by signing a long term deal? If so, what is the impact on our FA budget? 2. What moves do the Twins make to shore up our pitching, particularly in the bullpen, prior to the deadline? How do those moves, or lack there of, impact our chances to make/advance in the playoffs. 3, What type of return would we get for Correa? Are we talking multiple solid prospects or is it just salary relief? So it’s a bit like trying to solve a multi linear equation. If the answers to #1, 2, and 3, are slim to none and slim just left town, none, and decent to strong - you trade him. If the answers are high, a few solid additions, and not much, you keep him. It’s the other scenarios where it gets trickier.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Wow, how things have changed in a mere 4 months. Although we still have some developing talent just getting an extended look in the bigs for the first time this year, the sad fact remains: organizationally, we are weak on the mound. Very weak - both currently and prospectively. We tried to retool last year and the possibility of a modicum of success remains. It’s not enough though; so, unfortunately, we have to keep at it. This franchise is unlikely to win a playoff series, let alone the World Series, without significant additions on the bump. So how do we accomplish that. Given our prospect situation, two obvious options exist? Trades and free agency. The more cash we have, the more viable the second option becomes. So the solution is clear: trade anyone who is expensive and is not going to be part of the core between ‘23-‘26 for whatever pitching we can get. The list includes Kepler, Sano, Correa (assuming he doesn’t reup by the deadline), Sanchez and Urshela. Even if we received only a couple of decent prospects in return, the cost savings alone would free up approximately $40MM or more to be used on the mound.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Super post and super draft analysis. Thank you.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    If he will commit to reup - no. I know, that’s a blinding statement of the obvious. If he will not commit to reup, then the question gets more difficult. The analysis would seem to require weighing what players can be received in return vs. the combination of the probability the Twins can make it into the playoffs and past the first round plus the probability that he will reup (or sign a new deal) with us after the season. This comparison also needs to take into effect any other moves the Twins make at the deadline (which could impact the prospects for playoff success). All things being equal, if a) he does not reup (seems likely), b) the Twins do not upgrade their pitching staff before the deadline (unclear) and c) the Twins can receive a solid return (not sure about this, but he is Carlos Correa - some contender must want him), I’d move him for sure. Sad, but in this scenario, playoff success is unlikely and the more important priority would be to build toward a better window in ‘23 and beyond.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Agree - Lee is a very solid pick and we were lucky he fell to us. I know a MLB team never really drafts for need, but the system does seem to be short catching and long 3B/2B/LF. Parada seemed like he could’ve been a fast mover (but Lee should be too). The fact that Parada fell to the Mets at 11 might indicate the Mets were targeting him ($?). Overall, Lee is a great pick who should be a solid major leaguer - hopefully for the Twins.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    I know I’m in the minority on this, but it’s hard to see why we would mortgage our future by trading any legitimate prospect or big leaguer likely to be part of the plan in 2023 and beyond for any rest-of-year rental. It’s painful to say, but based on our play over the past month, we’re just not that good and have too many holes to fill, mostly on the mound, to truly be considered real contenders. Let’s see how the rest of this series plays out, but the data points are starting to accumulate. Sure, we may hold on to take the weak central, but we should still be focusing on a bigger open window over the next several years. So if we move anyone, move the players who are not likely to be here next year - the list might include Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez. Maybe even Correa if you can’t get a commitment out of him - even though by keeping him you still retain some chance of catching lightning in a bottle this year.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Arraez is hitting 0.400 with RISP. There is someone more “trusted” than that?
  14. Nashvilletwin
    I’d like to think that as well, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The ChiSox played like little leaguers tonight with the triple play base running gaffe, bailing out a wild Pagan in the ninth, and the walks in the 10th. The outcome, as enjoyable as it was, was not assured really at any point. Yes, we probably have a better squad than either of our primary AL Central rivals (although Cleveland’s pen vs. ours is a great equalizer). But there is a lot of ball left to play. Looking forward to tomorrow’s game.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    You are correct. 8 blown leads 7th inning and beyond. Duffy -2, Pagan - 6.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    The bullpen implosion was a disaster - unfortunately, not that unexpected of this club. I mean, we are kinda getting used to it, right? Pagan is, like, 9/15 in save situations. The thread will focus on this I’m sure. However, the little things from the position players once again bit this team in the rear. Arraez’s throwing error in the first was unnecessary and led to a run. Celestino not picking up the 3rd base coach and stopping at second likely cost the Twins another run. That’s a net two runs, proving costly. No need to even mention the passed ball. We need to clean up these little things because they are having a big impact. Our relief corp isn’t strong enough to overcome these mental mistakes in the field, at the plate, and on the base paths.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    I used “showboating” which might be a bit harsh, although he certainly was “admiring” his hit. Regardless of whether he thought it was a dinger, a foul, or two perfect throws nabbed him, you run hard out of the box. We’ve all been taught that since tee ball and your team is playing your top nemesis in a close divisional race for goodness sake. Hey, but no harm no foul. I like the kid and hopefully he was reminded of a good lesson. So go get ‘em today Jeffers!
  18. Nashvilletwin
    So much to like in this game. There are lots of ups and downs in a season, but right now our starting staff is very solid. Also, just for the psyche, it was a superb bounce back win, Now to nitpicking. We still need to clean up our mental errors. Jeffers showboating out of the box instead of running hard led to him getting thrown out at second. Then on the next pitch, Miranda gets picked off third on a failed Celestino safety squeeze. Instead of 2nd and 3rd with no outs, we had nobody on and two outs. Luckily, these mental lapses didn’t come back to haunt us as similar ones have in the past. If we truly want to contend, we will need to be mentally tougher. Great win though after a disappointing morning.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    It’s perfectly ok to question some of Rocco’s moves when his strategies don’t work. It also is appropriate to give him credit when they do. Having Pagan up and ready if needed in the 6th was a good move as was having him come in to finish the inning. That move may have saved the game. Good move Rocco. Also, several people commented yesterday about Archer’s pitch count. Rocco is making a good call saving him for later in the year. It’s not clear Maeda will make it back and we have a number of young guys who might be near their ideal yearly innings count come September. Another good strategy by Rocco.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Geez, let’s not be so touchy everyone. I’m sorry for pointing out that we didn’t move a single lead off batter on first over, despite having 5 opportunities in the first 8 innings in a close one run game. That’s a managerial decision. It didn’t work out. I didn’t say fire Rocco or that he’s an idiot or that he’s a bad person. I just said that his strategy did not work and he has to be held accountable for that. After all, it’s his call. The Rockies successfully hit and run with one out and a guy on first - who made it to third on the play and then scored the winning run on a infield grounder fielders choice. I’m sorry if it upsets some of you that some of us would like to see the Twins, who have been shut out a league leading number of times and seem to struggle to score runs some nights, try to use a bit more small ball to manufacture a run or two in tight, low scoring games. It’s just an opinion from someone who watches every game and cheers hard for the Twins at all times. I think we all want to the same thing - to see the Twins win! It’s ok to disagree about the manner in which we hope to see that accomplished.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Actually, I take back everything I wrote on this thread. Rocco had probably predetermined that he was using Duffy in this game come hell or high water. Therefore, in his mind, moving a runner into scoring position in a tight game would have been fruitless. He thought a big inning would be our only hope. So once Duffy making an appearance was inevitable, did Rocco really have a choice? Lol.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry, but in a close game like this one clearly was shaping up to be, moving a runner into scoring position with a man on first and no outs is paramount. Can anyone really argue with this tried and true baseball paradigm? The Twins had five chances to do so in the first eight innings. The fact that no efforts to steal, sacrifice or hit and run were taken is a managerial decision. So yes, I blame Rocco for at least not trying to move the those runners up. Remember, the Rockies scored their only run as a consequence of a successful hit and run. So their manager took a chance and ours didn’t.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    The issue tonight was the inability to move a lead off runner on first over to scoring position. They had five opportunities in the first eight innings tonight. Not once were they able to accomplish that time proven demand on a hitter with the first two batters following the lead off batter. The only time they got a runner in scoring position was on a throwing error in the eighth with two outs. Sorry, but that is inexcusable on two fronts: 1) batter execution and 2) managerial strategy. Both are all to common to this team. Would it hurt Rocco to just try to manufacture a run once in a while? So yes, I blame Rocco for this one too.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Well, after watching these two games, I’d say it’s likely we are sellers at the deadline. It’s not because we lost these two games per se - although they both were horrific losses. Rather, it’s because it’s very clear that the Guardians are a better ball club. With respect to hitting, the two clubs are probably pretty similar, although the Twins probably have the edge if Buxton is mashing versus flailing. The Guardians staff is demonstrably better, with the most significant difference in the bullpen arms. At the moment it’s hard to say if the Twins even have one shut down arm (maybe Duran). The Guardians have several. The key to a truly contending club is a shut down pen (many of us TDers have been raising this point constantly). The Twins do not have a shut down pen and have no hopes of having one unless they raid their prospects at the deadline. The Guardians pen has had shutdown performance and looks like it has legs for the rest of the season, Fielding wise, the last two games show how many little mental mistakes we make. Rocco has never developed a mentally strong fielding team. It was our bugaboo last year and it’s starting to rear it’s head again, Don’t focus on the actual errors - that stat is misleading. Focus on the little league mental mistakes (Larnach throwing home in the 9th was the sole reason the winning run scored later in the inning) - there are just too many of them day in and day out. And now we are also developing a mental block about finishing off games. Finally, Francona is a better manager. That actually counts for a lot - probably 6-12 games a year. Rocco’s in game strategic decisions are simply too often mistakes. The last two games are just the most recent examples of this blinding statement of the obvious. We have a fun team. Love to watch them. But the Guardians have the better club - pretty much across the board. Hope we turn things around - things can change. But the sad truth is that Guardians are better constructed to contend than the Twins.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Nick, after my booster I immediately contracted tinnitus. I have permanently lost 50% of my hearing in my left ear and have the constant sound of static in the ear. It is INCREDIBLY debilitating. I’m told it will never go away. According to my internist, my ENT doc, and my wife’s cancer drs., this is a documented long term side effect of the Pfizer shots and is prevalent in a higher percentage of people than is being reported. None of those physicians are anti-vaxxers, in fact, just the opposite. And I’m not either. But the risk is not zero and is likely as high or higher than my risk of long-term health issues from getting Covid - particularly these latter strains. I am a mid 50s active male in great shape and no morbidities and my remaining years will be significantly negatively impacted by my decision to get the booster. Just an FYI from an incredibly reasonable person.
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