TwinsDr2021

Are you trying to be funny here? Stashak(28) has 72 MLB innings and has 9 holds in 4 years, Moran is in the minors, Alcala (27) looks like there is potential but has pitched 87.2 innings has 1 save, 11 holds and 5 blown saves. (and some innings from Winder) The Twins success has come been 126 innings from Ober, 53 innings from Duran and that is pretty much it, all the rest have basically come from trades.

I don't think the Twins can count on Maeda, Ober, Winder or Dobnak for anything more than mop up innings the last couple weeks of the season if that. I would expect at least two starts or multiple relief innings in the minors and if that would probably have to happen by next week, if they haven't started that by September I see no chance, unless Ober comes out throwing like 100 and the Twins rush him up. Fingers crossed Larnach can come up and do well, it might be important for his future with the Twins.

Not that it is a huge difference but he turns 22 next month, which is still plenty of time to get a good major league pitcher, but as I have posted before the older a prospect debuts the less chance it becomes to be a star.

Sorry I meant to type ALL Stars. Miranda was drafted in 2016 and AK in 15, both prior to this this FO, as was Pressly, Escobar, Dozier, Gaterol (all used to get others, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Arraez, Garver, Gordon ) but that really wasn't point, my point was All Stars. And Royce Lewis was the first pick in the draft 2017 which they also inherited from the previous regime. This FO has done an amazing job of trading for players, there is no doubt, Obo, Maeda, Duran, Alcala and others, but drafting and FA are real questions right now.

First I have been done complaining about when the Twins take out Pitchers, it is pretty easy to guess/know when Rocco is going to take somebody out, If you pay attention to batters faced, innings, and pitch count you should be able to know about 90% of the time. It is what it is. But couldn't you also say/ask this "We'll also never know, but would yesterday's game have played out differently if Ryan was allowed to face Taveras in the seventh?"

Isn't this more a shot at the FO than anything, I mean there is no denying they were given some talent when they signed on and if the argument is they don't have enough, that has to fall squarely on their shoulders correct? The only stars they have brought in are Odo (2019), Cruz(21) and one could argue Maeda in 20. That is it all the rest were inherited from the previous FO.

100% agree on the hitters, besides Arraez ever other hitter has been disappointing. Buxton, Correa and Polanco have a combined 43 doubles, 17 players alone have over 30 and Freeman has 40 that is pathetic. Miranda has been really, really god the last few months but spent the month plus as an automatic. The Bullpen killed the teams no doubt, but was that because they were terrible or because of the usage? I would say a combo of both. The Twins knew at the beginning of the year there starters would be held back on pitching count/innings and they did nothing to prepare for this, then later in the year when the pitchers were hurt, they again didn't change the pattern. As of late they have changed a bit using relief pitchers long (or multiple innings) what the heck took so long? Using Smeltzer for 3 the other night has been what we have been screaming for all year?

The guys on the radio said it pretty clear yesterday, there are times when a starter has to go longer, and between the pitchers failing and at times Rocco not letting the starter pitch though things it has caused issues with the bullpen. They said when you off days you can let the starter pitch 5 and bring 4 one innings guys to get a win, but when you play 6 games in 7 days or whatever that can't work there aren't enough relief pitchers to pitch that many innings that many days in a row. It was the 5 inning yesterday (I am paraphrasing) but they said Ryan has to be able to finish at least the 6th today with his low pitch count but he will probably need to go 7. To me that is were Rocco lacks the most understanding that not every game can be played like the playoffs, sometimes you have to let a pitcher (Starter or Relief) pitcher try to go a little further or try to get out of trouble, because it affects more than just the game being played it can affect a whole series or the next few days. For example pulling Bundy after 5 1/3 worked a couple of days ago, but did it have an effect the last couple of days? IDK Not saying Bundy should have went further, just saying how many games did they win doing this but end up costing them games after that?

Can he better? Sure anything is possible the odds say no, but Berrios only has 10.6 WAR though age 28 so it isn't like he needs to do a ton in the next 6 years to get there. But he only has 251 minor innings in 4 seasons. Berrios pitched 103.2, 140, 166.1 he three full years in the minors, and fourth year he pitched 169.2innings (111.1 in AAA and 58.1 with the Twins) To me the big difference is going to be SWR will more likely than not be asked to do what Berrios has been asked to do and that is be a tradition starter, He basically has never been asked to pitch much more than 4 innings a game. I am hoping he becomes good/great but with any twins pitching prospect his ceiling seems to be Joe Ryan.

I would like to point out Joe Ryan did the impossible. He walked the first two guys in the 6th inning (YES THE 6 inning) and got out of the inning without giving up a run. Based on what people have been writing on here, I didn't think it was possible that a starting pitcher could get out of a jam after the 5th innings.

Lets not forget Jax will be 28 at the start of next season and lets be honest 3.74 ERA doesn't scream shut down back end relief pitcher pitcher, Winder 26 in less than 2 months, and Ober just turned 27 and have combined less than 80 MLB innings this year after pitching 72 and 108 last year, Duran was a top 5 starting pitcher prospect two years ago and now is bullpen pitcher (very good/great bullpen pitcher) We are talking about the Cole Sands that has given up 16 earned runs in 21 innings this year? Sure he has come up in pitched 5 innings but lets see how that continues to go. Ryan isn't from any prospect pipeline, he has pitched 9 more minor league innings with the Twins than Paddock, Gray and Mahle. Really good trade but should be considered no different than Gray or Mahle.

I would add Miranda to this.

And Theilbar had gone 12 games in a row without an earned run, that had to end at some point, sadly it wasn't in a 6 - 3 game or something.

Alcala is out for the year, and from last friday - Maeda (elbow) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Friday and will throw another bullpen Monday, So I think we can assume we won't see him for quite a while if at all this year.

You say random games but I just happen to be using a few examples out of hundreds. I could point out the game against the Tigers where Ryan went 5 innings gave up 3 hits, 1 run no walks and 9 k's while pitching 78 pitches while facing 20 guys. (I am not saying he should or should not have been taken out) and you are trying to tell everybody that is reading this thread that is every team does this? That is what you are saying. OR just recently against the Royals Ryan pitched 5 1/3 giving up 6 hits, 2 runs,2 BB and 6 K's 80 pitches and faced 24 batters and was taken out after striking out a guy with a man two men on base in a 3-2 game and Brent Rooker up (again not saying he should or shouldn't have been taken out, but you are saying that everybody pulls him there, and there are hundreds of examples where teams don't. There are example after example of games similiar to these, and your come back is that individual games don't count because of averages? Didn't you say when good pitchers are going good teams let them go further? Does that average that include bad starts and openers? Because if you think of bad starts as less than 4 innings for example, Ryan has 0, Bundy has 3, Gray has 2, Archer has 3, Smelzter has 2, Winder 1, Ober 2, Mahle 1, Chi Chi 1, That is 15 starts (shorter than 4 innings) for the Twins and zero openers, so based on this shouldn't the Twins averages be higher? Shouldn't the twins compared to a team that has openers be higher? How do the Twins compare to other teams like them that send a starter out every time? Not sure what this means, since we basically agree on everything except you/me disagree on much further the Twins have gone on limiting their starting pitchers to exposure more than other teams..

To be fair to the Twins they also have had younger guys come up Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Berrios. It just seems like Atlanta guys have shined brighter. Albies and Acuna were young international signings, Grissom was a 11 round pick and Harris a 3rd rounder in 2019 both high school picks and completely amazing they were not affected by the Covid year like all the Twins prospects. Back on topic, It seems like a no-brainier to sign these young guys early for how many years were Kepler and Polanco for example considered great trading chips compared to the guys that didn't sign these contracts. Sure you might miss on a guy or two but the upside is so much higher that it seems like a gamble worth taking.

Not hard to admit because that isn't at all what the conversation has been about, you have tried to make it that, but my points have been how the Twins do thing compared to the rest of the league. I am not mad at all on how the Twins are treating starting pitchers. Do I hate it? absolutely! If I was the GM of the Twins would I being doing something similiar? Absolutely in the major leagues, not in the minors but that is a different topic. It should be super easy to prove the Twins are doing it exactly like other teams, but nobody has even tried to prove that, shouldn't that be fairly easy, shouldn't like 80% of the games be the examples? And when I have pointed out numerous games that happen daily the come back is the Twins pitchers are just not good enough isn't that more reflective of the job the FO is doing? I think the consensus on TD is that Berrios has been pretty terrible this year correct? On three occasions he has been allowed to face the number 9 hitter, and once face the lead off hitter 4 times (total times a Twins pitcher has faced the 9 hitter - Twice), 14 times he has faced 25 or more batters in a game, that is 3 more than the whole Twins team. Again I could do this exercise over and over and over, with pitchers that aren't Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer) on just about every teamand you still going to try and save that it is 2 hitters a game? I get it that the average innings per start is going to be fairly close at the end of the year, but quite a bit of that will be a bunch of longer starts and a bunch of shorter shorts, but that isn't how the Twins get their average (they don't have a bunch of the longer games) But hey if you want to continue to mislead people into believing they the are doing exactly what everybody else is doing, you be you and other people can say generally understand what the Twins are doing at any given time, but there are teams and pitchers that wouldn't be taken out in certain scenarios.

Or the Twins just don't have the Stud pitchers needed to go further (innings, BF, innings per start) when ALL the pitchers in minors are pitching the same amount of innings or less than the major league club? I think Louie Varland the 24 year old pitcher recently promoted to AAA is averaging the most innings per start (5) (or at leas the most inning pitched in the minors) and went 5 1/3 in his first start while allowing 1 hit and 2 walks)

I would for sure don't see any reason not to. Not to get off topic but how the heck does Atlanta continue to turn out young stud prospects? (Age debuted) Harris (21), Grisson (21), Contreras (22), Austin Riley(22), Dansby Swanson(22), Acuna Jr (20), Ozzie Albies (20), Fried (23), Strider (22), Kyle Wright(22)

So we are talking pitches per start now and team records, young guys? I thought it was about TTO, limiting exposure? The goal posts seem to move every time something that might go against this comes up. The argument that Keller and lynch doesn't hold water, because I could point out game after game, where teams lost pulling the pitcher one inning earlier or facing less batters than Lynch or Keller, and just as many games where they pitcher went the same amount of innings or batters faced as Lynch and Keller and didn't give up any runs. I use Dan Dunning as an example because he basically is a 27 year old no name pitcher that has been allowed to face 25 batters or more 8 times this year (Which is 3 less than the whole Twins pitching staff). His team is 3 - 5 in those starts one was 3 -1 win, one was a 5-3 loss, one was a 6-5 loss, was one a 2 -1 loss, one was a 7-6 loss in extra innings, these are not blow outs ( 4 of them were prior to June 4th, so they weren't out of contention at that point) He averages more pitches per start, more innings per start and more batters faced per start than any Twins Starter, and my guess is if you asked most people on TD if they would trade him straight up for Ryan or Gray the answer would be a He!! no. Why is it so hard to people to admit how the Twins are treating their starters this year is mostly the same as everybody else but more extreme? And if the answer is because the Twins pitchers just aren't as good, we should be hammering on this FO, shouldn't we be? I mean how many years does it take to find one guy, just one like Dunning (or the dozens of other pitchers doing similiar things for example? I mean the Texas Rangers are paying Perez 4 million dollars to do things the Twins pitchers can only dream of doing? and yet the Twins are paying Bundy more, Archer just 500K less, They traded a first round pick to get Gray and their best pitching prospect/Rookie has completed 5 2/3 innings in 5 of his last 15 starts.

I love this statement, because it has been pointed out in this thread and others that what you said is not 100% true (absolutely teams treat starting pitchers very similiar and in some cases exactly the same as the Twins and I could point out multiple examples from any random night this season), But it also has been proven that pitchers on other teams on a nightly basis do face more batters pitch more pitches per start or more innings per game and earlier in the thread I posted the names of some of these pitchers and it isn't only the top few pitchers in the league and then the comeback is the Twins pitchers just are not good enough or they don't have a number 1 instead of just agreeing that yes the twins are doing something the league is doing but to more extreme way. I don't understand if you believe this how you are not calling for heads to roll in this front office? How many years have they run the Twins and they haven't came up with 1 starting pitcher that is even a bit better than league average? (When has the likes of Keller, Lynch, Martin Perez, Dane Dunning became #1 types?)

That is the question, if you are going to let your starter pitch the 5th against batters 1-4, why then all of sudden start throwing out TTO int he 6th, which I think everybody assumes are less batters than 1 - 4? Maybe we don't have all the numbers, and the top few guys in the lineup don't benefit from seeing a guy a third time, because they are so good every time or pitchers work them different and a third time isn't really an advantage and it is the lesser hitters that improve from seeing a pitcher the third time? I mean that isn't' what people are saying but maybe what the teams are doing? I feel pretty comfortable saying that nobody has said that, But based on the numbers the Twins are doing something a bit different. I mean when 24 different pitchers in the last two days have faced 25 or more guys (two days in a row against the twins) and the Twins have done it 11 times all year, you have to admit something is happening. Dane Dunning (who?) just did it for the 7th time today.

Brendan Rodgers of Colorado (.285/.338/.434/.772), Sean Murphy of Oakland (..251/.327/.450/.777), J.T. Realmuto (.258/.331/.436/.767) are the closest comparison to players to the TTO numbers. Jesus Aguilar, Kepler, Gurriel are examples of FTO. I hardly think it is fair to say facing a third time though is like facing Freeman, Betts, Turner and Smith every batter. Comparing what teams averages are doesn't make any sense what so ever to me in this context, I can't actually grasp the logic behind it. It makes me feel either you or the Twins can't grasp these numbers, because ever single Twins starter (minus Archer) averages facing the top 3/4 in the order every game and barely if ever above that, So they are letting the best hitters on the other team have a third go round with the Twins average at best starters then taking them out against the worst hitters? How in the world does that make any sense? It is like they are stacking the deck against their own pitchers or intentionally doing something to make them look worse?

It means they face less batters, thus they pitch less innings and this is proven by being 28th in the league in starter innings. If they were in the middle or top half it could mean they are more efficient.

I am not sure how ERA works in this (see previous post) but out of a 100 hitters that is 3 hits, 1 extra guy on base (2 if you round up) and looking at slugging it seems those extra couple of hits are homers? With the way people talked I expected the numbers to be way worse, especially since (I assume) the numbers shew heavily to the top of the order guys?