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TwinsDr2021

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  1. TwinsDr2021
    What does more than viable mean? Is is 108 1/2 inning with an ERA of 5? Or 140 2/3 inning with an 3.33 ERA? Is it averaging 5 innings a start with an ERA of 4.7? IMO he should start between 20 and 23 starts and pitch about 110 innings during the regular season. Is that more than viable?
  2. TwinsDr2021
    Joe Ryan's WAR last year was 1.2 which according to ESPN was 163rd in the majors behind the likes of Pagan, Brock Stewart and a whole lot of guys I haven't even heard of. Do I think he will be better next? Yes, do I think he will be as good as 2022, I am not sure of that. Edit- The Twins only won 9 more guys than Detroit last year and went into the season with maybe the best starting rotation in my lifetime and with Gray and Maeda (for depth), Mahle and a stud starting pitcher waiting for a chance in the minors (Ober), they still might be favorite to win the division but it more than worries me.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    In how many innings, the guy has 335 career innings and has been in the majors since 2019. I think he will be good this year and hopefully brought along slowly so he again can pitch in the playoffs if the Twins get there.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    So Lopez and Ober are better than replacement level, and the rest of the rotation is replacement level (maybe a bit bettter) or worse? Doesn't seem like a real plan for a division winning team.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    Honest question, who are the Twins stable of pitching prospects? I mean I like Festa, Raya, Lewis, SWR and some other prospects, but I am not optimistic of any of them being a factor in 24. Raya has pitched 65 and 63 innings the last two years so he will be on a innings limit (with most likely in the minors), Festa has pitched 103 and 92 the last years so he is likely to increase that by a good amount, but again likely in the minors, Lewis should also be fine on pitch count but will start the year in AA most likely so probably won't be much help until the summer, And while I like SWR I am not optimistic he will be anything more than replacement level next year. I agree with you on the division is not guaranteed next year.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    Julien will be 25 on April 30 next year, Lee will be 25 Valentines day 2026. Lee was in AAA at age 22 and Julien was in High A. Comparing what these two have done in the minors is ridiculous. You don't think if Lee was playing in High A last year in wouldn't have put up video game numbers?
  7. TwinsDr2021
    Currently either on the MLB roster or carrying a 2024 ETA, according to MLB.com, the Twins have Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Lee, Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, and Jose Salas (unlikely to debut, but meets these criteria). Is this really a log jam? Correa and Polanco (if not traded) are starters. You need back up for AK and Lewis until they prove they can stay healthy (Julien and Farmer). Salas is 21 (will be) and hasn't played above high A and hasn't been very good. Martin will be 25 when the season starts and has done little to nothing to force the Twins into opening a spot on the major league club. Severino is also another older prospect that hasn't forced the Twins to say he needs a spot but is good depth. Castro is a utility player and shouldn't be counted as part of a log jam. Which leaves the Twins Lee, the one guy that could actually force the Twins to make room for him (and I have been told will be better than Correa in the next year) I am not saying you don't trade Lee, but like Engelhardt said above who are those guys?
  8. TwinsDr2021
    In 2023 Pagan had 1 save, 8 holds and 5 blown saves. Which means he blew the lead in more than 1 of three games. He was so good he ended up tied for 119 in the majors in holds. He did have a pretty good run in September against some really bad teams. Good for him on getting crazy money!
  9. TwinsDr2021
    Imagine if they would have taken that advise for Miranda and AK last year? If you are giving Wallner RF, you sure as heck better have a good depth plan that doesn't include Gordon.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    Would you trade Ober or Ryan for this group? I for sure wouldn't and I bet the Angels wouldn't do this either. I like the idea but you are going to have to give up something of a higher value than that group of players.
  11. TwinsDr2021
    If the Twins think this, you don't trade him for anybody and to be honest you find a place for him right now in your infield. To expect a 23 year old minor league kid to better than a 29 year probable HOF player in one year might be setting the expectations a bit high? I mean nothing like absolutely setting up a kid to be considered a disappointment.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    I have no idea if the Cardinals are more or less analytical, but I will say the Twins being 4th in starting innings probably has to do more with the way the FO built the pitching staff then anything else. MN had 4 starters start 26 or more games, another start 20 and one with 10. and this was after Mahle got hurt. As opposed to the Cardinals who had 1 pitcher start over 21 games, two at 21 and one at 20. This isn't meant to be negative on the Twins approach at all it is meant as a positive to the FO work in building a starting staff, which IMO mean they are going to do what they can to replicate that this year. Meaning going out and probably trading for a starter and trying to get somebody signed to a minor league contract.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    agreed, hopefully someday the Twins will be able to do that. As of now it is Ober, if you are feeling generous you could say Ryan. Not the best track record for this FO.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    It kind of seems like pitchers that don't debut until their mid 20's don't generally work out (as starters and maybe even relief pitchers)? hmm, that doesn't seem like the narrative of the comments on this site. I think all of these pitchers will have some success in the majors at some point, but all seem like guys that you don't waste a 40 man spot on unless your team is terrible and are looking for some magic in a bottle to flip them at the deadline.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    The Twins have 5 guys? Lopez, Ober sure, Paddack hasn't had an ERA under 4 since 2019, Ryan has been over 4.00 two of his three years, and Varland? If you use that kind of criteria I think most teams have 5 guys capable. Now I like am OK with that staff but while I was against starting Ober in the minors last year, I am all for starting Varland there and bringing in another guy, because at this time there is little to no starting pitcher depth what so ever.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    I keep seeing this, the Twins have a surplus of outfielders. Currently on the Twins 40 man there seems to be 4 outfielders (one being Buxton), two utility guys, one A ball (probably AA this year) and AK. I am really not sure how people think this is a surplus?
  17. TwinsDr2021
    If the Mets would do that trade, IMO that is very easy to say yes to. I also like the Mountcastle trade. Not sure I give up Raya for only one year of Goldy.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    The Gray trade will look good forever regardless of what Petty does. He gave the Twins 303.2 innings over two years with a 2.90 ERA, ERA+ 142 and WAR of 7.7, and helped break the worst post season losing streak in history of all sports. All While Petty was pitching 165 innings in A ball. Now there is a plenty of time for this trade to also work out for the Reds.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    I am not sure the Twins are guaranteed anything next year. Currently Varland, Ryan, Paddack, Ober and Lopez is the starting staff and the back ups are SWR, Headrick and Festa?. So if they lose a starter or two things could go side ways real quick. On the other side, if any of the younger guys regress, rookies aren't good or injuries similar to the last few years there isn't a ton of depth there either. I think standing pat could put the Twins in a similar position to 21 and 22. And I don't see this front office putting themselves into that position again. So I see them doing some thing to shore up some depth, probably not in a big way but I see them bringing in at least one starter and maybe an outfielder with options (hopefully) I see them bringing them in a starter so Varland can start in AAA like Ober did last year and I see them bringing in somebody to replace Gallo (Hopefully right handed and much, much better) to platoon with Wallner at least to start.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, he just misses this year and gets in next year.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    At age 22 Julien was playing in both A ball leagues, Lee was AA and AAA, I don't think that equals outperformed at every level?
  22. TwinsDr2021
    no it means they are getting more credit for doing less. I am not complaining about the way pitchers are used, I am just stating the idea of comparing pitchers based on WAR isn't valid anymore. Unless you are comparing them to other pitchers in the same year.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Santana didn't really pitch poorly. he was actually really, really good going into July 6-4 with a no hitter and a 2.76 ERA. Then the wheels fell off in his last 5 starts 33 runs in his last 5 starts. I am pretty sure NO team would abuse a pitcher like the Mets did with him after a year off. Averaging 97 pitches per start with 134 in his no hitter, and averaging over 6 innings per start. I mean I can't imagine any starter pitcher averaging that any more. There is good reason to be careful what you could expect the second year though.
  24. TwinsDr2021
    I would do the trade if we get a QO, I love me some EROD but I have to admit last year did sour me a tiny bit on him. I do still think he has a chance to be something special but we are talking about a guy that has missed only 22 games in the last 5 years. (half or maybe more of the Twins missed that many just last year). He is a lifetime .251 hitter and has hit 53, 16 (in 57 games), 37, 40 and 46 homers. IMO if you have a chance for a guy like this take it and hope you can sign him, and if not take the draft choice. (now I would prefer that if we are going to trade EROD, it was for some top shelf pitching.)
  25. TwinsDr2021
    if guys now have higher WAR than in the past, wouldn't that mean replacement level is lower now? Nolan Ryan's in 1977 pitched 326 innings, ERA 2.87 and won 21 games and his WAR was 7.7. Nola had a WAR of 9.7 and pitched 212 innings. In more recent times Verlanders 2011 season, every metric was better than Nola's (except ERA 2.40 to 2.37 and ERA+ 172 to173) and Verlander (8.6) pitched pitched 39 more innings (in the same amount of starts) and yet his WAR was lower than Nola (9.7) I like Nola and think he is pretty good, but if he is elite, so is Pablo and a bunch of other good pitchers.
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