RonCoomersOPS

This. I'm not even sure the Mahle deal cracks the top 10 worst Twins trades ever. And even if it was the actual worst one ever, I still make it because the intent behind it was to address an area of need for a playoff run.

You don't want to lose Kepler for nothing, which is probably what will happen if we hold onto him into next year. That's JR-ball, and we've no reason to return to that. You also don't want him to have a good-not-great season next year, only to accept a qualifying offer and turn back into a pumpkin in 2025. We already have a couple of large contracts that aren't really performing and don't particularly need another. Any return won't be great, but we have the depth to cover his bat. We'll lose a fair bit on defense, surely, but given the need to add another plus arm to the rotation and the grim financial situation, I think you have to move Kepler for the best available return and allocate his dollars to the rotation.

I think you trade Polanco and Kepler for lower returns than they really deserve, in order to create playing time for young guys and also to free up dollars for the likes of Burnes, Gray, Nola, etc.

The Padres need pitching and and first base/corner outfield help. I'd dangle one of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober with Kirilloff and Larnach and see what happens. Soto would be an excellent get, and he's not going to cost *that* much as he's only got one year of expensive control left. I'm less interested in Alonso. Paying big bucks for a first baseman just seems like a Terry Ryan-level bad idea to me (reserve those big paydays for plus up the middle guys or plus-plus corner OF guys).

Larnach, Kirilloff, Ober, and Balazovic to the Friars for Juano Soto and Robby Snelling. Polanco, Kepler, and Connor Prielipp to the Mariners for France, Hancock, and Colt Emerson. Emmanuel Rodriguez, David Festa, and Tanner Schobel to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes. I'm a little over the TD budget, but right at the upper end of the budget that Falvey suggested might be available. This is a (potentially much) better team, though, than the one that just broke our playoff losing streak. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Ty France ($5.00M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Juan Soto ($33.00M) CF: Austin Martin ($0.77M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) DH: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Yunior Severino ($0.77M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($1.00M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Corbin Burnes ($10.5M) SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Emerson Hancock ($0.77M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.26% over budget

Probably has something to do with being better at his job than anyone else, inside the org or outside of it, who might try to come for his gig?

Twins make moves, acquired players don't turn into Willie Mays and Sandy Koufax, this site hates the team for it. Twins don't make moves, probably still win a weak division, this site hates the team for it. Whether the Twins make moves or not, they fail to beat a team who sold players by more than 20,000 runs, this site hates the team for it. You people make me really dislike baseball, baseball fans, and my home state.

That's true, but once Pineda and Gibson went down we found ourselves putting Randy Dobnak on the bump in game two. I love Dobnak and think his is a great story, but the odds of him holding up under the bright lights of a October baseball in New York were never good and the odds of him having sustained success were worse still. And then there's the whole Devin Smeltzer, Kohl Stewart, and Lewis Thorpe experiments that had to break just right to get us into the playoffs in the first place...

I don't think overrated is the right word for that team. There's no question that that team could rake, and I think they fully deserved the 101 wins they recorded that year. I think "unbalanced" is a better word. The 2019 team had a bunch of really, really good hitters that got to benefit from the juiced ball and an organizational shift toward hard contact for XBH over slap singles and using speed; on the pitching side, though, it was still basically Berrios, Odorizzi, and pray for rain.

He was hurt for a lot of the season, but when healthy Bailey Ober lapped expectations at least a couple times. Griffin Jax emerged from a mediocre showing as a starter in 2021, and became a reliable power arm out of the pen. It didn't all go according to plan this year, but the FO was really aggressive at the deadline and brought in players who should make the team much better this year. And they did it without totally burning down the farm.

I think the Twins are going to go all in on offense this year, and let some of their young guys give it a go in the pitching staff. I'd expect the 5th starter to be fairly fluid, based on who has the hot hand at the moment, and we might also see that from the 4th starter spot depending on Bailey Ober's health. I'd guess I'll have to do that once or twice with the #1 and #2 starter spots, too, but what the heck...I want to see how some of our AA and AAA guys do in the majors this year. I'm still moving Kepler and Polanco in order to get younger/healthier/more productive guys into the lineup, and the upshot is that they should both bring back some interesting young talent. I'm also not counting on anything from Kirilloff coming into the year, so he's part of my trade that brings in Murphy. This is probably an extremely high risk roster, but I think there's enough offense and defense here to offset some of the risk I'm taking with the pitchers. C: Sean Murphy ($3.50M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Eduoard Julien ($0.70M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Carlos Correa ($32.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Mitch Hanniger ($10.00M) DH: Jose Abreu ($12.00M) 4th OF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($5.50M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP4: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Evan Sisk ($0.70M) RP: Emilio Pagan ($4.00M) Payroll is 7.21% under budget

Eovaldi got a QO today. Given the state of the farm and the apparently FO's ability to find guys deeper in the draft (see also Eduoard Julien), I'd try like hell to avoid signing guys like Eovaldi.

Arraez's knees likely let him play more games as a first baseman, and I like Gordon as a super-utility guy. Also, depending on how well he hits, Julien is potentially just a placeholder at second base for that Lee fellow we drafted this summer.

I have Polanco going to the Mariners in exchange for RHP Tyler Dollard, OF Zach DeLoach, 1B/3B Tyler Locklear, and old friend RHP Prelander Berroa. I also have Kepler, Urshela, and money going to Chavez Ravine in exchange for LHP Maddux Bruns and backstop Dalton Rushing.

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.70M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Carlos Correa ($37.00M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Gary Sanchez ($8.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Jameson Taillon ($17.50M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Michael Fullmer ($4.00M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.70M) Payroll is 6.57% under budget

And then when the ace joins the 65 other players on the IL for half the season, then you've got three players' worth of money providing zero value to the team instead of one guy hurt and two still able to help the team.

Boras was his agent last year, too.

They haven't lost me, not even close really. However, one thing I'd really like to see them do is re-evaluate their player strength and conditioning strategy. Part of that is acquiring fewer guys with known injury concerns (Paddack, Archer, Mahle), but the bigger part in my view is figuring out how to stop the players going down with injuries en masse down the stretch. I guess the only other thing I'd really like to see them do is continue trusting in their minor league player development, and keep calling guys up. I'd love to see Brooks Lee and Austin Martin make the team out of spring training, especially if the alternatives are guys like Cave and Palacios. SWR, Varland, Ober, and Winder are here and deservedly so. Keep them up here, and prioritize figuring out how to get the Festas, Canterinos, Sisks, Enlows, and Balazovics of the system to join them. We finally have guys coming up who don't look completely lost or overmatched, so keep pushing for more of that.

Subject to the Correa opt-out situation, I'd like to give Lee a shot at the big league shortstop gig right out of spring training next season. When Lewis gets healthy, Lee could go to second base (If it was up to me, I'd move Polanco this winter), or third base if one of Julien or Martin looks ready to take over at second by then.

This FO arrived in 2017. It is currently 2022. I'll leave it to you to accurately calculate which year of the 5-year plan they're in. I'll also mention, again, that it's worth recognizing just how far behind the times the Twins were when this FO came in. And that this new FO lost a year of minor league player development just as they were really starting to catch up. This FO definitely needs to go through some re-planning exercises this winter and challenge some of their assumptions and practices around player development. However, if their jobs are threatened, or even ended, this winter then the Twins are going to end up with a reputation as a toxic organization and they're never going to be able to bring in better people to steer the baseball side of the business.

They currently have 17 guys on the injured list, including 80% of a starting rotation (and that's _after_ getting two starters back in the last week or so), an entire starting outfield plus two outfield depth pieces, both of their first two first base options, and 3 of their 4 up-the-middle defenders. The car has broken down, caught fire, exploded, and set half the surrounding neighborhood on fire. No team dealing with that level of injury problems is going to make a serious playoff run, much less make another playoff team nervous if they somehow manage to get to the postseason. I would argue that the two biggest things that the Twins could and should do this winter are 1) bring in a new training staff and 2) re-spin their analytics resources to be more holistic and systems-oriented, especially as it relates to player training, nutrition, etc.

Why could that be? Perhaps it has something to do with a guy taking a little while to feel comfortable in a new setting with higher expectations, and/or a number of Twins fans acting with all the entitlement and long-term thinking ability of a 7 year old?

Falvey has had five years, not seven years, and one of those years was a total loss from a minor league development perspective. And let's not forget that he was taking over for a guy whose pitcher development strategy was originally conceived of (and seemingly not iterated on even once) during the early years of the Cretaceous Period.

No. Bailey Ober has already shown success at the major league level. So has Josh Winder. Those guys being injured doesn't somehow make them cancel out the successes they've had, especially since they aren't career-ending injuries, and those injuries certainly don't suddenly make Ober and Winder's early results not count for Falvey and Levine. And, since the question was pitching in general -- not just starting pitching -- I'd like to introduce you all to a guy call Jhoan Duran. If he doesn't count as a success story simply because he's not starting this year, then I question if we're not just bitching for bitching's sake.

Bonds is on the short list for greatest player of all time even without the roids. It's sort of ridiculous that he's not in the hall of fame. However, he was obviously using PEDs near the end of his career and if we're going to ban Charlie Hustle for cheating...