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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The real issue this team is facing right now is that they've been missing guys like Correa, Buxton, and Ryan for a long stretch now (and Ryan ain't coming back). That's a talent deficit, and it makes it harder to find room to rest guys. What I find ridiculous is this idea that the Twins need more "fire" (whatever the hell that means) or that players can't be tired because they're paid a lot. There's absolutely no way that these players don't care about the result and aren't giving their best effort; I dare anyone to call someone on the roster a malingerer and actually have anything to back it up other than being mad about their performance or because they just don't like that player's game. (hint: no one will have anything. no one.) They're struggling right now, and it sucks. The manager will probably get fired if they collapse all the way out of the playoffs, not because it's really Rocco's fault or because he's a bad manager but because it's a lot easier to change the manager than to change the players. Sometimes it even works, just getting a different voice can matter even if they're saying the same things. But unless this front office changes (and I know there are many on this site who want nothing more), the next manager won't substantively change all that much, it'll just be a change in personality.
  2. jmlease1
    Going to be a lot of starting pitching depth at AAA next season, which is great. Not going to be much room for a retread veteran there, which seems fine. Wonder if Lewis might start the season in AA just because of the crowding (and the fact that he missed a fair amount of time this year). Assuming no FA signings, the MLB rotation could be: Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack with AAA having Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, and Lewis (I think Varland moves to the bullpen from the jump next season). That's quite a bit of starting pitching depth. (and we still have guys like Culpepper, Adams, Jones, and Nowlin coming along) Good progress by the hitters this season in the minors, but the injuries were a bummer. Jenkins is the real deal, I keep having to remind myself that it's his first full pro season, because he's not acting like it. Thought GG and Doncon did fine in Cedar Rapids at age 20. Hopefully Keaschall comes back strong from the surgery; he was doing great before getting hurt. Emma will be the first OF called up next season, I think, and he has star power. Always interesting how you can have a ton of talent in the minors and the teams don't win, but guys cycle through quickly at times.
  3. jmlease1
    I think the Twins absolutely learned that lesson (maybe too well) about having backup and injury replacement options, which is why we acquired Margot, rather than just running with Martin. We went into this season with many options behind Buxton this season: Margot (in theory), Castro, then Martin, plus Helman, Kiersey... and of course in 2023 we had Michael A. Taylor. We're not calling up guys out of A-ball to start games on the MLB roster any longer.
  4. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins continues to impress. Please stay healthy! I keep having to remind myself that this is his first full season in pro ball. But I'm increasingly of the opinion that he will start next season in AA. Maybe the Twins will want to see more than 35-40 games at high A, but...maybe not! He's so good.
  5. jmlease1
    I'm not sure it matters much where he starts next season; I suspect he'll be in Wichita pretty quickly even if he starts in Cedar Rapids. he's flying through the minors at his age and I expect he'll make his MLB debut in 2026. What a talent.
  6. jmlease1
    He's exceptionally well-suited to play RF, where his cannon of an arm plays up and his range is less of an issue. His speed is more than enough to cover the area, but it does take him a while to get going, so he's not going to do as well on those balls where you need a great jump to get there. that's not as important in RF, though. he'll handle the balls that he can get under just fine, and has the ability to play balls effectively off the wall and keep runners from freely advancing. It's going to be interesting to see how he manages at the plate. He's right in his physical prime so it shouldn't be a surprise that a player who has always crushed baseballs is absolutely crushing baseballs. He's hitting the ball hard, he's hitting it in the air, and it goes a long way. If he makes enough contact, he should be able to do this, for as long as he's able to catch up to fastballs. I think where things fell apart for Sano was when the injuries started to take their toll and he couldn't catch up to the good fastball up in the zone any longer, but YMMV. nothing wrong with having a player with a unique profile. Wallner has a full season's worth of MLB games under his belt now and has put up an OPS+ of 140. He's improved at the plate every season, despite the Ks. Maybe he's just a different guy?
  7. jmlease1
    I'm going to be interested to see if/where Doncon lands on the prospect list next year. He's had a solid season this year, showing real improvement over his last year with the Dodgers and earning his way up to high A at 20. He's still playing plenty of SS, which says there's still decent performance defensively. It's a bummer that he missed basically all of August, so hopefully he can get in a little more game time before the end of the minor league season, but it seems like a successful one for him. I'm guessing he starts next season in Cedar Rapids and we'll see if he can earn his way to AA by midseason. His trade partner Noah Miller got promoted to AA recently, and has struggled with the bat. While his glove is excellent, I think we can see exactly why the Twins were ready to move on from him: he's simply no threat at the plate at all. While it's a small sample size in AA so far, it looks like facing pitchers with better command is going to be a real problem: he can't buff his numbers with walks the same way, not against guys who aren't afraid to throw him a strike and have the ability to do it when they need it. He's showing no real pop in his bat and without superior contact skills, even his excellent glove isn't going to be enough. I don't think the Dodgers "fixed" anything here. he's still fairly young and could develop as a hitter, but in 3 full seasons of professional baseball, he hasn't improved at the plate. Winokur is finishing the season strong, and that's good to see. he certainly had some challenges this season, but seems to have found his power stroke again. I think he'll move up to Cedar Rapids as well next year.
  8. jmlease1
    So happy to see E-Man off the IL and playing. Hope he finishes the season strong in AAA. He was absolutely mashing it before he got hurt. I expect him to start in AAA next season but we will certainly see him in MLB in 2025. Huge talent. Good to have Laweryson pitch well, but he's really had a rough last 2 seasons. I really thought he was going to become a bullpen option for the Twins by now after he looked so good in 2022, but he wasn't very good in 2023 in AAA and got demoted to AA this year...and has somehow been worse? Oof. Outside of some injuries it's been a very good year for the farm system , I think.
  9. jmlease1
    Because as a general rule, players tend to have better results with runners on base?
  10. jmlease1
    Tight win. Not great timing for SWR to have a poor outing; while it's great that the bullpen picked him up, they've been pretty overstretched and it seems unlikely that any of our top guys are available today. Duran may not have the 104 mph velocity this season, but it's pretty ridiculous for him to be throwing a splitter at 99. My goodness. TB is down this season, but they still have guys you've never heard of that will hurt you. Nice to see Rortvedt healthy and in MLB; if he can hit like this he'll be a quality second catcher.
  11. jmlease1
    What are you talking about? Rooker got an extended look in MLB with the Twins and wasn't very good, and then couldn't make a dent with 2 other franchises before finding success in Oakland. Let's not pretend he was disrespected by the Twins. I'm happy for him, but he clearly needed to make adjustments and not play in the field. Raley is kind of the same way, but also didn't spend all that much time with the Twins (and was hurt). But he needed multiple bites at the apple in MLB with a couple of franchises before finding success, and just like Rooker, didn't find success until he was nearly 30. Not sure what Gil is doing in here, other than being lumped in as a player who the Twins had that found success somewhere else, but we dealt him from rookie ball 7 years ago. He's having a fine season now, but he's also (unsurprisingly) gotten hurt and it's taken him forever to get to success in MLB. I mean, if the point is we should be giving chances to older prospects, then you should be thrilled to see Helman come up.
  12. jmlease1
    I would disagree on Castro & Jax. The projections on Castro were about assumptions of regression, since he'd only had one season where he'd shown he could be this level of player. But I think while the Twins weren't expecting him to be an all-star pick, they did think he could be this guy again, and so did the fans. So while the projection systems might not have seen it coming, plenty of other people did. Jax elevated to a different gear this season, but he's been a quality reliever the prior two years, so I'm not sure this was really a shocker either. We'll see whether he's able to sustain this new level next season, but I'm not exactly surprised to see a reliever in his prime have a career season. SWR is the real surprise. He'd been struggling a little in AAA, the velocity had been down, he hadn't really had extended periods of dominance in the minors recently, and while I still believed in his talent, it was hard to envision this level of sustained success in MLB this early. He's been good all season, and hasn't been showing sign of fatigue. It's really impressive to see him crushing the innings projections too: he's never pitched this many innings in a season, and it's not really all that close once you add in his AAA innings from this season. Great job by him in seizing the opportunity and not letting go.
  13. jmlease1
    Glad to see Rosario looking healthy and hitting back in AA. Hoping he keeps developing, would be a nice RH OF option if he can keep sharpening his skills. He's still pretty young, so seeing him do well despite missing a lot of injury time this season is good. Ohl is someone where I think the margins might end up being too fine for him to really make it as a starter in MLB, but you never know. Development is not linear, so maybe there's still a another gear to find, and it's not like he doesn't understand how to pitch. He might have trouble finding a slot in AAA early next season just because of the depth we're projecting up there.
  14. jmlease1
    Ober's change up looked really good. He'd had a little bit of a wobbly August, so good to see him have a strong outing, though the 1st inning HR made me a little nervous. Nice to have Royce get the bomb to win it. Made up nicely for not being able to get the big hit in the first with the bases loaded. Need him to get locked in again. I'm ready to see Varland slide into the bullpen again and give them a real boost, but it's understandable after Matthews awful turn that they're not ready to move him in yet.
  15. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins has definitely found his groove in Cedar Rapids. Not bad at all for 19. He's a heck of a prospect. Happy to see Rosario back in Wichita and getting some hits right away. I still like him as a player, and it's been a bummer he's missed so much time. I still don't know what to think about Raya. He's been ok this year in AA, he's been pitching deeper into games...compared to last year, at least. He can hunt Ks effectively, but is giving up too many free passes and looks more hittable. Really not sure what his future is.
  16. jmlease1
    See, this is the problem: you're doing this all on feel and guesswork. bWAR is a stat, it's just not a stat you like, so your dismiss it. How are you coming up with Miranda preventing 5 losses, and giving us 5 more wins if he had 100 more ABs? You don't have anything to back it up other than "he's a better hitter". He is a better hitter, but is he so much better a hitter and good enough defensively at 1B to be that much of a difference-maker at 1B? Since you don't have any real criteria, you can never be proven right or wrong about anything. Miranda spent 9 games in AAA this season. If we hadn't signed Santana and started Miranda at 1B this season, how would we have done when Royce went down? I'm not drinking the kool-aid, I'm being clear-eyed about this front office, and not pretending they suck because of style. They're not perfect: the Mahle trade was a real risk and a total bust. If GG doesn't pan out, the Polanco trade isn't going to look good (even with Polanco being diminished, something the league clearly recognized regarding his market). They haven't done well as buyers at the deadline, either missing opportunities or busting out. But we're seeing a real flow of young players up to the majors with a competitive club and a strong farm system, and the cupboard was looking a little bare when they arrived.
  17. jmlease1
    I hope Rodriguez is able to get some game time in before the end of the season and finish up healthy and positive. Bummer that the hand/wrist issues have kept him off the field so much, because he was a having a great season. Tons of talent there, and his plate discipline will serve him well as he heads towards MLB. dude can flat-out hit. Maybe he'll be a candidate for the AFL or some winter league work this off-season. Jenkins is doing great, really turned it on lately as he's gotten more comfortable in high A. Not bad at all for 19! It'll be interesting to see how fast the team pushes him next year. He might be ready for AA from the jump, but there's a reasonable argument for him to start next season back at cedar rapids. Regardless, I expect him to spend most of his time in Wichita and it's going to be fun to see how he fares against more advanced pitching. Dude has all the tools, despite being so young. Please stay healthy! Love seeing these two OFs rise through the system.
  18. jmlease1
    there's a lot of cherry-picking going on here. Take the all-star conversation: Twins had 2 this season, both signed by this front office. They had 2 last season, both signed by this front office. Luis Arraez may not have been drafted/signed by this FO but they certainly developed him and he was an all-star for the Twins in 2022 (along with Buxton). 2021 we stunk, but Nelson Cruz was an all-star, signed by the current FO. under the current format it's going to be challenging for the Twins to get more than 2 all-stars, so maybe evaluating success purely on all-star appearances doesn't make much sense. Reading your evaluation, someone unfamiliar with the twins might think they have no quality home-grown talent...but that's simply wrong. SWR might not have been drafted by the twins, but they certainly developed him and he's been a quality starter. Griffin Jax wasn't drafted by this regime, but they turned him into an elite reliever. they traded for Duran and developed him into an elite reliever too. Traded for and developed Alcala. Drafted Sands. So our top 4 relievers this season were all developed by this front office. and these are quality players with tons of value. the idea that our farm system at the end of the 2nd Ryan era was better than it is now is a bold statement; would love to see where the facts are to back it up. Twins current farm system is a consensus top 10, and that's after graduating players like Royce Lewis, SWR, Ed Julien, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner in the last couple of seasons. the "87 wins" line is nicely arbitrary and designed to make this front office look worse than it is. because it nicely avoids the fact that the team made the playoffs 4 out of 7 seasons and pretends that there wasn't a pandemic year where literally no team could possibly win 87 games, because they only played 60. They've won the division 3 times in 7 seasons. How did we do in the previous 7? won the division once (in the first of those 7 seasons), then finished last 4 times. Didn't win a playoff series. Didn't win a playoff GAME.
  19. jmlease1
    See, you're using your own term for "replacement level". I use that term in the context of bWAR, which defines it like this: WAR Explained (v2.2): 8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Replacement "Replacement" level is a guy you can sign off the street and do the job just as well. Santana is sitting at 2.1 bWAR for the season already.
  20. jmlease1
    Santana is a replacement level signing? he's sitting at 2.1 bWAR right now with a 109 OPS+, despite the horrifically slow start. Instead of getting hit by the aging stick, he's been basically the same player as last season and getting paid $1M less. That's neither replacement level nor horrendous, and without him we'd be flailing at 1B this year. Need to be accurate about this stuff when evaluating the FO. Margot, Jackson, Gallo? Sure. But they were right about Santana. (I was wrong)
  21. jmlease1
    Twins are currently 11th in most cash value of players lost this season by game ($30M) and tied for 9th in most players lost to injury to date (21), and 14th in games lost to injury (1,303). Cleveland and KC are doing much better on these metrics to date. The Twins depth is definitely being exhausted and and they're struggling because of it. the starting pitching has actually held up pretty well, but losing someone like Ryan is a big blow. Losing so much time from Buxton, Correa, and Lewis (all stars, all producing very well this season when healthy) is a big blow. They've caught dings everywhere except catcher and 1B, and while they've had depth to cover, it's running out and we're stretching people. the bullpen looks gassed, and the need to hold someone like Varland ready to start is limiting the ability to get reinforcements in. They might survive this, but it won't be easy. And this is exactly why the Twins were so cautious about moving on from someone like Margot, because they were frankly worried about running out of guys. personally, I feel like this is where ownership and the front office let the team down in not getting real reinforcements for the bullpen, which turned into the biggest need.
  22. jmlease1
    I would think that Levine would be the tougher one to keep right now, because as much as he might like it here the pull to be the top dog will be strong and he's likely to have suitors in the offseason. realistically the only reason for Falvey to want to leave is if a team with significantly more resources comes a-callin', and even then it might not actually be a better job. While the Pohlads don't spend to the levels fans would want and arguably should expect...from a front office perspective they also don't get down in the weeds and much about with the baseball operation. The current front office regime has overall done a good job. there have been some misses, both on the draft & development side (cavaco & sabato, for example) and on the free agent/trade side (Mahle, Gallo). but there have been some real highs there too (Royce, Wallner, Ober, SWR, Jeffers, Miranda on the draft/dev side and Cruz, Ryan, Pablo, Gray, Correa, Duran on the FA/trade side). And the farm system looks far stronger from top to bottom than when they started, which is impressive considering how many guys have graduated. I have concerns about their ability to manage sunk costs and whether they take too many injury risks, but the former is problem for all but the richest franchises I think and the latter might just be the peril of being a smaller market team and a risk you have to accept. Their creativity in finding lesser known college pitchers that they can develop is really quite impressive. they haven't won big in the playoffs, which is a debit that can't be ignored. YMMV on how much of that is on them vs ownership, or them vs the vagaries of a small sample size playoff. Otherwise the balance sheer is pretty strongly in favor of extensions, because the only other argument you hear is related to data-driven decision-making that some people DGAF about and want a change in manager and style of play (more bunting, steals, hitting for average over power, less platooning, starters throwing 120 pitches, etc) that simply isn't going to happen with this regime.
  23. jmlease1
    Watkins is immensely frustrating as a 3B coach; he's made some real whoppers out there. Feels like a bad fit for him. A little hard to tell clearly in this case whether Watkins is reacting to Kepler or Kepler is reacting to Watkins, maybe? But feels like neither covered themselves in glory. If Kepler's going hard from the jump and aware of the situation, maybe Watkins stays confident in his signals. Then again, it's Tommy Watkins who by all accounts is a really good guy and pretty meh in terms of his stop & go signals. Maybe Rocco was mad at Kepler for not knowing the situation and going hard. Maybe he was mad at Kepler for getting into it with Watkins. Maybe he thought Kepler threw Watkins under the bus a little. Who knows. Been a pretty mediocre year for Kepler with a lot of slumps. He's looked rotten the last 2 weeks (last night against the Braves he looked like he'd never seen a slider before when he came up in the 7th) and his 5-35 stretch over the last 2 weeks has dragged his whole month right now into the trash. Plenty to be unhappy about with Kepler, who isn't not exactly having a strong walk year.
  24. jmlease1
    It's been a bummer to have Rosario miss so much time this season, was really looking forward to seeing how he would handle AA this year. Wonder if they might send him back to the AFL just to get him some ABs or suggest he play winter ball or something? felt like he was holding his own in AA before he got hurt, which seemed fine for his age 21 season. Schobel's had a pretty inconsistent year. He was having a nice bounce in August but then went into an 0-24 slump. He's got some things to figure out. Maybe AFL would be a good call for him too. Jenkins has done pretty well this season despite the time missed to injury. More than holding his own at high A, even if he's not setting the world on fire, but he's doing just fine for 19. It'll be interesting to see how fast they push him for next season because the talent is right on.
  25. jmlease1
    And as soon as Royce or someone else like him starts scowling out there, they're going to get slammed for not being happy when they're getting paid millions of dollars to play a game. (come on, we've all heard that BS before too) People can be driven to improve and work like crazy and so on and still have a smile on their face and be upbeat and positive. You don't have to be a horrible miserable cynic like me to be successful. The idea that Royce Lewis is some kind of glad-hander who dodges criticism because he smiles and works the room is ridiculous.
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