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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Lot of stuff to unpack for Brooks Lee, who looked like a high floor player at worst coming out of the draft and rising through the minors quickly. Is that player still in there? The bat speed and selectivity at the plate are clearly an issue: he's got the bat skills to put the ball in play often enough, but swinging at pitcher's pitches rather than waiting for something in his favor is going to hold him back, especially with the poor bat speed. Improving both would be ideal, but even getting one of those things where it needs to be would be impactful. Have to wonder whether there's ongoing impact on his swing from the back injury. Is that still holding him back from ripping line drives instead of lazy flies and easy grounders? He played 139 games this year so you'd think he was healthy, but back injuries are tricky things. I just don't know if he has the range to stick at SS for a full season. He makes good decisions out there, generally handles the balls he gets to well, but the arm isn't particularly strong even if it's pretty accurate. (his arm plays better at 3B even though it's frequently longer throws he's able to set and throw harder) He was pretty disappointing at the plate in 2025, but was actually better than he was in 2024. But an OBP under .300 isn't good enough and he'll need to push that SLG up to .400 to be a reasonable and consistent threat, rather than someone who runs into a homer by turning on a ball that someone left up. I haven't given up on Lee yet, but I'm disappointed in him so far. My expectations were significantly higher. He looked like a guy with a good hit tool and solid fundamentals with a high baseball IQ, and unless the hit tool perks up, he's a utility guy who shouldn't play SS much, which limits his viability on the bench, especially since he doesn't bring any speed to the table.
  2. jmlease1
    Heck, look at the corner OF for the Dodgers and Jays; a full season of Austin Martin might have made those teams quite happy...
  3. jmlease1
    Defensively, that's possibly true, but the fact that he hits at or above a league average level makes him a viable catcher. Catchers that can hit are few and far between these days, Cal Raleigh not withstanding. But this was the first season since his rookie year in 2020 that Jeffers put up a negative defensive bWAR, so there's also a possibility that this season was a bit of a statistical fluke and he could bounce back. Either way, he's still an easy tender. I was a little surprised that he didn't get moved at the deadline and that there was reportedly no market for him. But maybe other teams are looking at him more like Mr. Lenz seems to be and predicting further degradation in his catching and hitting.
  4. jmlease1
    This has certainly been the Twins model for building a bullpen as well. They haven't been spending significant resources on bullpen guys, they primarily have been building via waivers, minimum salary signings, and internal development (especially converting starting pitching prospects into relievers). And it's worked quite well for the Twins, overall. They haven't been spending big piles of cash on relievers and don't even look to extend their own guys to multi-year deals as a rule. Are the Twins following MKE's example, or did MKE follow the Twins? (better answer: both of them followed the Rays)
  5. jmlease1
    Yeah, I think the deck has been stacked a little here. What is a postseason waiver-wire claim in Kriedler doing here? He's not part of any core. Roden had 12 games with us. was he bad? He surely was, but it's 12 games. He got here the equivalent of 20 minutes ago, and was hardly the key piece in the Varland deal. The guys who were either looked at as being part of a core wave are/were: Julien, Wallner, Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Lee, Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, and Martin. Clemens, Gasper, Fitzpatrick, Paredes, McCusker, Kiersey...these were fliers and waiver claims. Even if Clemens has turned back into a pumpkin, it's not like we've lost anything. Rodriguez hasn't played a game in MLB yet, what's he doing here? There's plenty of worry and concern about the actually guys that matter without cherry-picking out everyone who didn't hit, or focusing only on the bad parts for every single player. Someone needed an editor here.
  6. jmlease1
    The converse can be true; several role-players get hot at the time same in a short series and suddenly the team with the $200M+ payroll is at home wondering what the hell happened. It's why if you have a chance to make the playoffs you should always go for it because things can get weird in a short series. But the elite players are more likely to be able to hold up when the benches, rotations, and bullpens tighten up. It certainly seemed to hurt the Brewers ability to put runs up on the board against the Dodgers, when Durbin was the only guy that was hitting. And if you're relying on getting baserunners and aggression to get you extra runs, that definitely seems to get harder in the playoffs.
  7. jmlease1
    It's a fair point. The fewer stars you have, the more you're relying on guys that raised your floor in the regular season to get hot during the playoffs. And part of what made MKE so successful in the regular season was not giving innings and ABs to bad players. (116 starts went to guys with an ERA+ over 100, and that doesn't include Misiorowski's 14 with an ERA+ of 95) They had a deep and quality bullpen; the only really bad guys in there that pitched for them were Alexander & Pavamps, who had 60 innings between them. None of their position players with more than 100 PA's had a bWAR at replacement level. (Joey Ortiz was the only real dog in the starters) They were also very healthy...which is something that makes a huge difference for every team and has nothing to do with style. But they didn't have a lot in terms of star power, which seemed like the wall they ran into against the Dodgers, who were able to get their pitching healthy (enough) for the playoffs and have plenty of stars in the lineup to generate runs.
  8. jmlease1
    role players and catchers it seems. But former star players rarely work out as managers. Some of them aren't interested/able to do the grind that good/great managers do in knowing everything that's going on with their team, obsessing about the details, crushing tape to find an edge, etc. Others struggle to communicate the how about things that they did as players or don't understand why players aren't able to just do something that the star player sees as just what a player is supposed to do...because they're asking players with lesser talent to do what they did. Now, if you think you can stack up the coaching roster with guys that do all the teaching and strategy prep and the manager is a CEO type whose primary responsibility is communicating with the media, setting an example/standard, handling the vibes and personalities of the clubhouse, etc then maybe someone like a Torii Hunter or Albert Pujols works? It's not like they don't know baseball, and the media loooooves Hunter, which would certainly generate some positive press. But would either be a good day-to-day manager? I think @dxpavelka is right: they'd be the exceptions to the rule.
  9. jmlease1
    He's an easy tender option for sure. I don't see him as getting traded in the offseason; this front office has shown itself to be pretty adverse to selling low on a player unless they're at the almost cut stage, and Ober is nowhere near that. If he has a sharp first half but Ryan & Lopez are still here and we're seeing more out of people like Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, etc I could see him get moved at the deadline? But still more likely that he's here for 2026 and maybe gets traded in his walk year (presuming the billionaire owners in MLB don't implode the 2027 season...) I like Ober. I think he's one of those guys that's never going to be an ace, but can be a playoff caliber starter.
  10. jmlease1
    I guess I like the fact that not every candidate in the pool is from exactly the same mold? In my experience, having a candidate pool where people have a range of experiences/pathways is a good way to help you find the right fit for the organization's needs. When you're slicing and dicing between 4-6 people that have the exact same profile it can start getting into just vibes, which isn't probably the best way. None of these look like deal-breaker, "oh god, why?!?" picks, but none of them are 100% slam-dunk, "hire them immediately for whatever salary they want!" picks either. Which is sort of to be expected?
  11. jmlease1
    Because they want to win. Their owner wants to win. They were woefully short on run prevention last season and it was an embarrassing collapse. Twins don't have to trade Ryan, and there will be multiple bidders if they make him available. They shouldn't be able to pry him loose without offering great prospects. Of course, if you're of the opinion that Falvey is a moronic incompetent who is responsible for every failure of the organization in the last decade and someone else was actually responsible for any successes...then yeah, we'll only get a bag of magic beans. I'll admit, the idea of trading a star pitcher to the Mets brings up unpleasant memories of what the potential return could be. Mets do have the prospect capital to make a deal that works for both teams. But I suspect McLean is off the table for them? The late season, successful debut in MLB makes him a guy they're counting on for 2026 in the rotation and swapping him for Ryan doesn't necessarily move the needle for them. They want a rotation that has Ryan and McLean leading the way, with guys like Manea & Montas moved off the roster, and guys like Peterson, Holmes, or Senga moved down to the back end.
  12. jmlease1
    agree on basically all of this. I think it would be very encouraging if the twins could & would lock up Ryan for the next 5-7 seasons (and I feel like the risk is fairly low, as these things go). I just fear that Cheap Pohlad payrolls make it more likely that he gets tendered and traded. Hope the scenarios you propose above come to pass. Even if Ryan isn't a true #1 (YMMV on him) he's still a guy who can anchor your rotation and be predictable in the kind of performances you can expect. I'd really hate to lose that. Plus, I really enjoy watching Ryan pitch.
  13. jmlease1
    I hope the Twins don't tender Joe Ryan. Because I'm hoping that they work out a long-term deal for 3-5 seasons. I recognize that I'm probably living in fantasy land. (we have ice cream cake here, so it's nice)
  14. jmlease1
    There's no question Royce was running better and looked much more comfortable doing it late in the season. I agree he won't likely ever get elite speed back, but if he can avoid leg injuries for once he can be an above average runner. The big question is whether or not he can make contact without swinging at everything. His month-by-month splits are interesting, if not exactly encouraging, for July-Oct. July was kind of the old Royce: hitting well, making hard contact, taking a few walks but not a lot. August was a mess: little contact, more walks, but no pop. Sept/Oct he started making contact again, but was swinging at everything (1 walk in the last 25 games? Oof.) Is he serious about hitting or guessing out there? I was pleased to see the improvement on defense; he looked much more sound and confident out there in the second half of the season, and didn't seem to be taking his troubles at the plate out into the field. Obviously, he gets tendered. Hopefully he can get on a good off-season program that gets him in a better place at the plate and with a strong and healthy lower half going into spring training. The talent is still there, and it's hard to believe that he simply won't hit if he can avoid significant leg injuries.
  15. jmlease1
    We should not. And no one, literally no one should believe anything anyone associated with Twins ownership says about the team's finances without access to the books and a forensic accountant. Sorry, Tom Pohlad: you're a nice guy, but your family has no credibility on this issue. Hells bells, no owner in pro sports have any credibility when it comes to finances. They will always slant things in whatever way is most beneficial to them at the time. Do I believe the Twins were on pace to lose $40M last season? Not really. And frankly, any losses they may have been taking were a result of their own mismanagement (media rights debacles, lack of business acumen to grow the team's popularity, reportedly loading it up with debt to avoid a capital call, inflating the payroll and then cutting it off...the list is long) If they want to lean in more on defense and speed on the baseball side...ok, I guess? It's a strategy choice, and maybe they'll get in the right players to do it. But the bigger issue is if Twins Way 2.0 is really just "bottom 5 payrolls until the union throws a fit".
  16. jmlease1
    On the one hand, they were part of some good success here. On the other hand they were both already here, and maybe we need a fresh voice more than a turn back to the good ol' days voice. I don't think you can blame Shelton for all the ills of Pittsburgh, but they did get the new manager bounce when he was sacked.
  17. jmlease1
    I'd bet Naylor getting 4 for $70M before Arraez a) getting 5 years, or 2) getting $70M. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but there was so little interest in him at $14M on an expiring last winter that I have trouble seeing anyone re-upping him for 5 years at the same rate. But Naylor is definitely getting more and for longer.
  18. jmlease1
    oh, I hear you. for some reason, pitcher injuries always seem worse. I'm not going to pretend this is entirely rational.
  19. jmlease1
    I think Rod Carew would have been all over modern analytics. This was a guy who adjusted his batting stance based on who he was facing on the mound, and very clearly thought a lot about what he was doing in the batter's box. Don't know about Oliva? Analytics like this can be really helpful for players that can incorporate it into their work. Jeffers has always seemed interested. The trick is always in translating the information into something that's actionable for the player. But that's no different than any of the old-school methods of improving a player's swing or results at the plate: what can the coach tell them that they can use to improve? For some guys, seeing the data helps them commit to an adjustment. Understanding the why makes it easier to try something different. Other might need a different approach, but that can still be based in data and information rather than being purely about vibes.
  20. jmlease1
    It's a real issue. While it does happen that great players can also be good/great managers, but often the skillsets are too different and the all-star player can't translate the things that made them great for other (lesser) talents. Many can't explain how they did something: they just did it. Now, some players who were thought of as great leaders can be CEO type managers who work the clubhouse and the media and leave the tactical and skills prep to their coaches. I think you see this in the NBA a fair amount, but the great players still flame out a lot too. For every Jason Kidd there's an Isiah Thomas. Molitor was manager of the year...but also got fired and never took another managerial job. YMMV on whether he worked out as manager? But that's a hall of famer who took a managerial job in the last decade. I think most great players aren't interested in the grind of managing, along with the travel, once they're in retirement.
  21. jmlease1
    No. If his arm might not play at 2B, it's not going to play at 3B. He's more likely to shift to 1B or OF than 3B. But Lewis' defense was looking good again at 3B, especially in the second half as he really got his legs under him. Moving him seems unlikely.
  22. jmlease1
    I both want the special arm and fear taking them. I would love to get a front-line college starter who could step in almost immediately. And I'd probably be too scared to take them! Oh, the injury risk... :P
  23. jmlease1
    It'll be interesting to see where Winokur, Mendez, and Amick are after a couple of weeks in the AFL. Feels like they all have some things to prove. And it should be a good test for Winokur & Amick in particular.
  24. jmlease1
    He seems like an interesting candidate? He certainly ground his way up, which you have to respect. Maybe that would help him understand the struggles young players have in adjusting to new levels of competition, and we're certainly going to be seeing a bunch of those guys. He does sound well-rounded, rather than someone known for doing one or two things really well, but who knows. I'd be surprised if the Red Sox didn't let him interview. And frankly, it would be a real knock against their organization if they didn't.
  25. jmlease1
    I don't hate Arraez, I just think he's got a limited skill set that doesn't help the Twins enough. I agree that Clemens shouldn't be getting a lot of time on a good team: he's a useful bench player who can swat some homers, get on a hot streak, and play credible defense at several positions. But I think we're keeping him for next season, so part of the equation at 1B is how can he be deployed optimally? With Arraez on the team, there's really no 1B time outside of defensive replacement that makes much sense. That's part of why Andujar might be a good fit: he pounds LHP, he might be able to play a quality 1B with reps, and while he's best at hammering LHP, he's not helpless against RHP so you don't have to put him in a strict platoon, which can help you from over-exposing someone like Clemens. Comping Arraez's OBP to Buxton's doesn't really help here: Buxton is a far superior all-around player, so finding a stat where Arraez looks the same to an all-star CF doesn't really sell me any more on Arraez; instead it says to me that Arraez needs to be able to do more things well to be anywhere near Buxton's level. With Wallner, it's not really even a question of which one is "better": we have Wallner under team control for cheap, he's got some useful skill sets that can make him a useful/valuable RF/DH. We shouldn't be picking between Arraez & Wallner. And as much as the Twins have needed more contact-oriented players the last couple of seasons, with Keaschall & Martin in the lineup, we do have more of that in place now. But if you were adding another contact heavy guy, wouldn't you want them to have the speed to go with it? Arraez isn't a bad player, but he's limited. Would he be getting any real consideration if he weren't a former Twin?
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