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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I don't think it is a start from scratch competition; SWR has pitched too well in MLB over the past 2 seasons for him not to get more consideration. I think the competition between Bradley, Matthews, and Abel has been more open, though I think there was a preference for Bradley to earn a spot. So far Abel has been the strongest of any of them, but it's spring training so who knows. But I agree: based on what we know, it should be Abel & Bradley in the last 2 spots, with Matthews as next man up in AAA with Morris.
  2. jmlease1
    I think that's a little unfair to Bell, who crushed in the second half of last season and simply stripping that horrific start in March/April shows a hitter who is more than slightly above average, especially with Bell's earlier production in his career. It's notable that the only season bell was below average as a hitter was the weird pandemic season, and while I wouldn't expect him to return to 2019 form, a 120 OPS+ is certainly viable, and that's much better than slightly above average. Larnach can produce some if he's protected from LHP. He can't hit LHP, he just can't. All his additional exposure (he got over 1/3 of his PA's against LHP in 2025 alone) didn't really help him: an OPS of .605 still stinks, even if it is an "improvement". But we simply don't have much room for a player like Larnach who has so little defensive utility and doesn't rake enough against RHP to be worth it for us. Hopefully Bell carries is fine 2nd half over to this season and rakes. Would prefer Larnach be dealt for whatever we can get to open up the opportunity for other, younger hitters, since I don't see him as having much of a future here.
  3. jmlease1
    I do like Lee's hands and arm in the infield. It is nice to feel confident that he will make the plays that he gets to, so if he can expand that range with quicker reactions, a better first step, better positioning, and/or just getting a little faster that would be great to see. Ideally, he gets forced off SS not because he's not cutting it there but because Culpepper pushes him. The real question for me is where his bat lands. He did improve from year 1 in MLB to year 2, but it wasn't a big leap. He's got to be more selective at the plate and swing at pitches he can drive, not just ones he can reach. Fewer grounders, more line drives, please. He has shown that he can turn on a ball and drop it in the seats, which should help him some; pitchers shouldn't be able to just groove one in as a "get over" pitch on a 3-ball count, so if he works those counts a little better he should see better results. Not giving up on him, but he's got work to do to stick as a starter, otherwise he's heading to the bench as a utility guy.
  4. jmlease1
    He did everything you could really ask of a prospect in his first full season of pro ball. Earned his promotion up to AA and kept on playing well. Probably got a little worn down as the season went along, so it'll be interesting to see if he can build up his strength and stamina without losing the speed. The defense was better than advertised in 2025, so I'll start worrying about his ability to stick at SS when he shows he can't. He's got the arm and speed to be good there, and he can improve his positioning with experience. Be interesting to see how he does in laying off breaking balls out of the zone this year. If he starts tightening that up it will bode well for his future. I expect to see him in AAA this season.
  5. jmlease1
    Wallner was really, really good in 2023 and in 2024. Are we really still arguing this? He had a down year in 2025, and now it's his last chance? Why is 2025 so much more determinative for you than 2023 or 2024? Could it be because it had the result you expect to see from a high K player and you want those players gone from the franchise? Look, if Wallner really does have a hole in his swing (that took pitchers 2 1/2 seasons to find) and he can't make adjustments, then he probably will struggle this season like he did in 2025 (even though he was still above league average as a hitter). Feel free to serve the crow...if he sucks. But even with the arguments that he "failed" last season and can be exploited, etc he had an OPS+ of 110. I will never understand the instant gratification thinking that has people looking to dump a player with a career OPS+ of 127 at the first sign of trouble.
  6. jmlease1
    I beg of you, do not modify "unique" (or "historic"). These are binary terms: something is either unique or it isn't. My biggest grammatical pet peeve. Otherwise, great article. I still think Abel & Bradley are more likely for the rotation than the bullpen, but I could see Zebby landing there, and would not be sad to see his 4-seamer working in the back of the bullpen...
  7. jmlease1
    The best result for the Twins is that Wallner returns to his hitting form of 2023-2024, but also plays more at DH because someone like GG is demanding playing time in the OF. (We'll see who fits better defensively; I think GG can be less harmful there, even if he doesn't have a tool like Wallner's arm, but YMMV) I do think there's a reasonable chance that Wallner is less painful in RF this season; while he played full time after coming back from injury in June on, I don't think his legs were ever all the way back under him in 2025. That may have impacted him at the plate as well? There's always going to be a cohort around here who will despise his game and minimize his positive impacts while loudly noting all of his deficiencies; such is life, I guess? RF seems to have plenty of depth, but it should: it's historically the easiest position to fill with the least defensive responsibilities outside of DH. Wallner should be able to hold it down just fine until someone outhits him with more defensive impact. It could end up being where Walker Jenkins gets a lot of time initially if he shows he's ready and Rodriguez has laid claim to LF. Oh, darn. What a shame that would be! :P
  8. jmlease1
    Overall BA for MLB last season was .245. It hasn't cleared .250 since 2019.
  9. jmlease1
    Larnach was pretty solid before the foot injuries. Wasn't quick, but the range wasn't terrible and he had a good arm and catch the ball well. Ever since the turf toe he looks more like he's 38 than 28 out there. It's a bummer. Nice to hear Martin looking solid in CF. He's had the tools, but looked uncertain out there.
  10. jmlease1
    Huge talent. If he can incorporate a little more aggression into his approach at the plate, attacking pitches that he can handle earlier in counts, it will likely mitigate some of his issues with K's. The other issue he's got is health: he just hasn't stayed on the field enough. At least he doesn't seem to be having a recurrence of the issues that he's had surgery on, but dude has never played 100 games in a season. His profile at the plate does give reasons to be skeptical: there's not a lot of contact, and you'd think it would be harder for him to collect the walks against MLB pitching. But he does make loud contact and clearly knows the strike zone. (and he will add on defense, not subtract) It does occasionally seem like some people around here want him to fail. Maybe because of the K's, maybe because he's a Falvey prospect, but it's disheartening.
  11. jmlease1
    You could argue for Joe Ryan starting? Keaschall certainly gets some (deserved) love. And there's probably some people that would argue the best reason to watch the Twins this year is to see how the prospects do? For me, it'll be Buxton, who seems to want to spend his entire career here, and I hope to hell it happens. I'd rather pass on the supposed trade value and keep one of the most electrifying players I've ever seen play the game, a guy who brings joy and excitement to the ballpark every time. (and I hope he's as good a dude off the field as he seems to be. because he seems like a pretty good dude.)
  12. jmlease1
    Byron Buxton patrolling CF is arguably the best reason to watch the Twins this year. He's one of my favorite Twins of all-time, one of the most exciting players the Twins have ever had. Sucks that's he's had so many injury issues, but when he plays (and he seems to have finally been able to play without pain last season, huzzah!) he is a delight to watch. Buxton's homers are great, but it's even better when he rips one into the gap and starts flying around the bases. Or when he pokes a single into RF or LF that makes the fielder have to move a little to chase down and suddenly the defender realizes they have to really hustle or Buck is going to leg it into a double. I think CF will be in good shape beyond Buxton soon; both Rodriguez and Jenkins can handle the position just fine. Rodriguez is probably the better CF, but his history of picking up frequent dings might be a reason to look to Jenkins, who isn't as good out there but still should be above average. Either way, they are not far off, and I would think if Byron (knock on wood!) goes down for an extended period they would get a call up, presuming one doesn't make the opening day roster. (me, I would have Rodriguez in MLB from the jump) There's sufficient coverage from Martin & Roden for now if Rodriguez isn't considered ready yet, and I think Outman would land in AAA if he gets cut and we really need more insurance. The Twins have OF options, especially if the prospects graduate and are allowed to play...
  13. jmlease1
    If Bell can hit like he did last season without the horrific, awful, terrible, no-good March/April that hung around his neck, then he's going to be a good add to the lineup and an effective hitter at 1B or DH. Yes, his defense isn't good and he has about as much range as a tree but he can hit. If his splits normalize a bit, his ability as a switch hitter will make sense in the lineup. As a 1-year option there's not much risk and pretty good reward if he hits like he did the second half of the season. Clemens can give him some relief on defense in the late innings as well (I'm less excited about Caratini as a backup 1B, but as a 3rd option he's ok). It comes down to hitting. If we get last season minus the dreadful start, we're going to be pretty happy with Bell in the lineup. If he's closer to league average as a hitter and sits in the 100-105 OPS+ range, then we're going to be less happy because that's not a lot of offense for someone who doesn't add on defense.
  14. jmlease1
    Feels a little high for me, but I tend to rank a bit more on production than projection. But he's definitely got boatloads of talent. If he can stick at catcher, then his potential will be higher, because at any other position he really needs to hit and it's hard to know where he's at on that skill. It seems like for every SS and C prospect (except for Houston) there's someone suggesting that they can't/won't stick at that position.
  15. jmlease1
    I think the thing to remember with Outman is he crushed AAA just fine in 2025, so is him pounding the ball in spring training just a repeat of his AAA work? Dude has always hit AAA pitching. He just stopped hitting MLB pitching and I have to wonder if his spring training is nothing but a mirage. I'm sure there have to be other metrics on which to judge him, but I don't really have them sitting on my ass in MN... Personally, I don't think Outman should have played his way on to the roster. I think the front office is still enamored of him, and would really like to be proven right on that deal.
  16. jmlease1
    I'm not going to get too hung up on KLaw being the outlier: he often prefers it that way. He's also the guy who was way down on Kaelen Culpepper...and then did a big revision after Culpepper did great jumping up multiple levels last season. So, you know. I think it's pretty fair to rank them in that middle third, at the edge of top 10. They've got enough injury concerns about top prospects to catch a ding, their preference on stocking up on late round college pitchers doesn't excite prospect developers and those guys tend to rise up older, which will always keep them out of the rankings. And frankly, they've had enough trouble graduating highly rated prospects to productive MLB players that they deserve a ding on that side too. But there's plenty of talent in the system, and much of it at AA or above, which is where we need it to be. Hopefully they can get them through. I'd love to see our farm system rankings plummet because we graduated Roriguez, Jenkins, Culpepper, Rojas, Mendez, etc into productive MLB players that can form a new core...
  17. jmlease1
    Do spring training stats mean anything or not, is one of the questions. Roden has been raking so far this spring...but Outman is hitting quite well too. I'm seriously down on Outman and don't want him being given a roster spot on scholarship...but who actually deserves to get the job is hard for me to answer. Larnach seems like a poor choice to continue on at this point, and I wish there was a trade out there that could bring back a competent RH reliever, and I'd be willing to add a lottery ticket prospect to get that done. That would position us to have someone like Roden or Rodriguez start in LF, free up DH time for Bell et al, and Martin would be a good fit as a 4th OF, especially if you have the R2 boys on the roster as potential backups for CF. I think it's time to break the logjam. deal Larnach, for whatever you can get, Cut Outman (if he wants to go to AAA, fine; I have no problem with him playing the season as a veteran injury replacement in Saint Paul). Let either Roden or Rodriguez seize the job with Martin playing against every LHP in existence and occasionally getting some time against RHP (with an "R" sliding to RF at times to get Wallner over to DH more) I don't hold Roden's poor debut against him; it's a tiny sample of his first test at MLB. I think Rodriguez can hit and field if he stays healthy. I'm enthusiastic about GG as well.
  18. jmlease1
    He's incredibly talented, I just hope his elbow doesn't explode. I have no issues with him continuing to work as a starter: as noted above, he needs innings and he needs to throw his pitches under game conditions, and starting is a perfectly fine way to do it. It's also far easier for a player to step down to a relief role than it ever is for a guy to stretch back out into starting, and with the injuries that have already cropped up it's not like the AAA rotation will be too overstuffed (especially with guys like Lewis or Klein or Raya already moving into bullpen roles.) Should he be 5th on the list? Tough call, because there's simply a ton of variance with him as a player. the ceiling is very high, but the floor is equally low because of the injury risk and time already missed. Performance will need to start matching the peripherals soon; it's all fine and good to talk about spin rates and movement and whiff rates as a prospect develops, but once you're up in the high minors it has to be matched with execution on the field. Looking forward to seeing how well he's able to command and control his offerings this season, but any LHP with his velocity paired with that kind of slider & changeup has pretty awesome potential.
  19. jmlease1
    I hope you're right about Houston, but right now that's the hitting profile we're seeing in A-ball, which is not what we should be projecting him for in MLB. 30 doubles and 8-10 homers looks pretty optimistic, and if he's not able to do damage on the occasional ball, he could end up getting overwhelmed by better pitching as those cheap walks disappear and he gets fewer bleeders through the infield. I hope he develops as a hitter, because the defense is absolutely legit. But it's fair to be concerned that he's Noah Miller pt 2: all glove, no bat. Miller made it to AAA last season, and got bullied at the plate. Now, he still might improve and he'll probably make it to MLB as a utility guy at some point, but he doesn't look like a starter at all, let alone a potential all-star. Culpepper, on the other hand, has a much higher upside. A lot of the prospect evaluators who had him moving off SS have backed off that and the bat impresses,
  20. jmlease1
    There's a ton to like here. I might have had him a little lower; I'm usually a little more skeptical of the very young A-ball pitching prospects until they get up to AA, but boy the upside here is impressive. After so many years of not having a LH starter (or one worth a damn), it's pretty fun to have some high level LHP prospects pushing their way up. Would love to have a LH starter that can throw real gas in the rotation, and Hill might be that guy sooner rather than later if he keeps developing like this. Should be an interesting year for him. Hope he stays healthy.
  21. jmlease1
    3-4 weeks, probably. The cons are you might be looking at calling up someone who isn't ready if there's an early injury. And the reality is, we're talking about 2 from the Abel/Bradley/Matthews group being in the rotation, so if the 3rd one gets bumped to the bullpen we're relying on Morris to be the 6th starter, since Festa (unsurprisingly) isn't likely to be ready by the start of the season. If Pablo were still here it would have been easy to drop one from Matthews/Abel/Bradley into the 'pen, but right now we're looking at the rotation being Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradley, Abel. I'd feel a lot better about the depth if it's Matthews & Morris in Saint Paul first in line than Morris, Prielipp, and Rojas (when the latter 2 still need work, no matter how impressive the upside is). If festa were available it might be different as well. I'll be happy if whomever lands in the 4th & 5th spots does it on performance. Abel is making a case and it's good to see.
  22. jmlease1
    Sure, but why wouldn't you try to have a prospect improve? I don't think anyone is trying to turn GG into Matt Wallner, but if he hit fewer grounders and hit the ball harder when he swung, he'd almost certainly hit more for extra-bases and be a better and more dangerous hitter. And the vast majority of prospects who fall apart with any tweak to their swing or approach are probably not going to make it, because there's very few hitters who last in MLB without making adjustments.
  23. jmlease1
    Happy to see Roden continuing to hit. Would be great if he has figured out some adjustments and can make it a real battle for the 4th OF slot; I simply do not want them giving it to Outman on scholarship. Mick Abel has immense upside. If he's commanding his pitches he can be a front-line starter, and if he beats out someone for a rotation spot, that's great.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm excited about GG. I wish it felt more like the twins were giving him a real shot to win a job in spring training, but with Larnach and Outman effectively blocking him (and Martin reasonably being ahead of him as a guy who showed out a little as a RH OF bat last season) it doesn't feel like he's going to be starting anywhere but AAA. I hope he forces the issue by knocking crap out of the ball. I will be watching to see how his defense progresses; while he has the arm and athleticism to handle either corner spot, the arm isn't exactly plus and his fielding hasn't been impressive. (Clearly he knows he has some work to do there) His bat is definitely his path forward, and hopefully he's able to keep making adjustments to refine his approach and add more hard contact. I think everyone would be fine if he's a high average, high OBP hitter with 30 doubles and 10-15 dingers, especially if he improves his defense. He's not a finished product yet, by any means. It was mildly concerning that he lost some of his patience at the plate when he reached AAA; it was a fairly significant drop off in walks in Saint Paul. But there's no question that he had an excellent season in 2025, and suggests that his uninspiring 2024 was really all about health. A lot of people were really down on the Polanco trade, but GG is poised to make it look pretty good.
  25. jmlease1
    I think if there's an early injury to Royce, plan B is Clemens, which isn't terrible as solutions go. But if Royce flames out, right now there isn't another internal solution that looks close to ready, unless you also have a different solution at SS (which they may or may not have). It's a little more scary because Royce has such an extensive injury history, but the reality is if Royce isn't a real factor on this team then the lineup is likely too much of a mess to be salvageable at this point. Super bummed that Miranda collapsed, and I always find it weird that him getting beaned isn't front and center every time when he comes up, because it's pretty hard to not see it as having utterly and tragically altered the course of his career. Before that he didn't offer "tenuous" depth, he looked like a guy who could be a quality bat. (am pleased to see him doing well in SD in spring training, and hope it works out for him) It was good to see Royce didn't carry his struggles at the plate out on the field and his defense has definitely improved. Hopefully he figures out some things at the plate and stays on the field.
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