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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    it's a fun question! I think there's some belief in the Twins organization that Rodriguez is actually the better CF at this point, but that neither are expected to make it their long-term position? The possibilities are really exciting to have an OF of Buxton flanked by Rodriguez in LF and Jenkins in right with Martin as an option off the bench (especially as a RH bat) and Wallner in more of a DH role that occasionally plays RF. I just hope the Twins don't play service time games with Jenkins in particular, but cheap-ass dumb Pohlad ownership... Morris has been on a good run to close the season, and I'm high on him as a future starter. Can he stay healthy and be an impact arm? I'm leaning towards Preilipp and Raya moving to the bullpen to keep them healthy and give the bullpen some non-waiver wire, high impact arms (Adams looks like he could have success there too). Tait has done fine this season; you can see the tools, and while the overall numbers don't jump off the page, doing it in his age 18 season (he just barely turned 19) in High A should change the calculus. He'll need to bring the OBP up, but no complaints for a guy adjusting to High A at a young age and dealing with a trade and a new organization. I suspect he'll be looked at favorably for his projectability. Curious to know more about Sam Armstrong. he seems to have settled in after a shaky start and done some good work in Wichita, but I really don't know much about his pitches or what his ceiling might be. Be great if we ended up plucking a guy who stagnated in another system and we helped him find another gear, but he hasn't exactly dominated even in his best games. Not sure what to think about him other than he probably doesn't need to be in AA next season?
  2. jmlease1
    You're stretching it a lot to say that Roden is "easily" the best bet of the three between Fedko, Martin, and Roden. He might be a better bet than Fedko; probably a better defender at this point, but we really can't say as a hitter until Fedko gets a look. But Martin has shown substantial improvement at the plate this season and has actually done something in MLB to earn a job. It's fair that people including me are probably too down on Roden because of the trade that brought him here, but what has Roden really done to get enthusiastic about? He's hit well in less than a season's worth of ABs in AAA and totally flopped in his first taste of MLB. Martin wasn't great in his first taste of MLB at age 25 either, but he was better than Roden. Roden didn't even look particularly good in the OF.
  3. jmlease1
    Julien got sent down, rightfully, this season and hit well again in AAA. .879 OPS is good even in the International League. It made sense to call him back up once space opened up on the roster. Miranda is the one who has completely imploded.
  4. jmlease1
    Because Fedko really shouldn't be playing CF and the book on Outman was that he could. Plus, Fedko hasn't been added to the 40-man yet. I don't think Outman should be on the Twins in 2026, but I'm ok with settling the issue once and for all now...and I'd kind of prefer that Fedko not get any of the stink of this season on him and have the (rightfully) bitter and angry fans turn on him if he doesn't immediately Keaschall it. I'd like the OF to be Buxton, Jenkins, and either GG or E-Rod in some orientation, and I'd be fine with 2 of Larnach, Fedko, and Martin on the bench for the OF (with Wallner at DH and capable of stepping into RF as needed). That's an OF for now and the future. I suspect we'll get stuck with Roden and a minimum salary scrap-heap veteran, though.
  5. jmlease1
    I like the revisionist history on prospects that looked great immediately and then fell apart (or weren't all immediate and consistent all-stars) that the Twins somehow "ruined" them...and that most of these guys were ever considered in Jenkins class. Royce Lewis looked great from the jump...and then suffered another major injury. He's been littered with them, and it unquestionably relates to his struggles to be a consistent player. But he's developing nicely at 3B defensively (above average with the potential to be a plus defender). He's the last prospect we've had that is on the same class of prospect as Walker Jenkins. Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda were never so highly regarded. (Martin made some top 20 prospect lists early on; Wallner & Julien weren't even considered top 100 guys, and Miranda barely cracked into that when he had a late bust-out season) In past 20+ years the only prospects we've had that were truly in this class have been Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis...and now Walker Jenkins. Even Brooks Lee, who was well-regarded is much more like Martin. Even Keaschall, who is doing great, never ranked so high. (Sano eventually rose to these kinds of rankings, but it took time.) It still guarantees nothing, but to be in the Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis cadre is pretty awesome. Jenkins has answered every question so far, except whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season. Which, considering what has happened to so many quality Twins prospects, including their absolute top-tier guys scares me...but none of the injuries he's had have been serious or the type to have long-term effects. (It's not like he blew out a knee or has a disc problem in his back) I just hope they do a long-term deal with him (7 seasons sounds fine) and he's starting from Day 1 in RF or LF and gunning for RoY.
  6. jmlease1
    Polanco looks pretty much like he did in 2019 & 2021 with the Twins. I'm sure he made some adjustments after a pretty poor 2024, but he's also playing as a primary DH now with only about 20% of his time at 2B, so maybe the fact that he's playing so little in the field is keeping him healthier/fresher to hit.
  7. jmlease1
    This is ridiculous. Polanco was moved off SS to try and keep him healthier, not forced to keep playing a position that would keep aggravating his injuries. Miranda was looked at to play more 1B and DH after injuring his shoulder. Your speculation on Kirilloff is ludicrous: he sustained a significant back injury (ask Aaron Gleeman how much fun it is) and was looking at another arduous rehab with no assurance of success. It wasn't about "not getting a fair shake at DH/1B". You're simply making stuff up to fit your view of things you perceive as wrong with this front office. There's literally nothing to support your conclusions about Kirilloff other than you want to clean house with the front office, manager, and development staff. Miranda's inability to hit after being sent back down to AAA suggests that after the back and shoulder injuries he simply can't swing the way he used to, and hasn't been able to adapt to a new approach at the plate that gives him any success within his current physical status. To me, he looks like a player who is more limited physically now, and simply can't make the same kind of hard contact he used to. He's never been a disciplined hitter, but used to be able to still make hard contact when he swung, and now it looks like he can't cover the same amount of the plate and still hit the ball hard. He needs to hit to be an effective player, and it may well be that the cumulative injuries have taken that away from him with his old approach...and his lack of plate discipline may be impeding his ability to change to a different, more disciplined approach that would allow him to hit better. It looks awful for him. Maybe a winter off, a total reset with rest and strengthening over the offseason could get him back on track...or maybe he's just not going to be able to do it. But I doubt it's about "heart". And it certainly has nothing to do with the situations Polanco & Kirilloff found themselves in.
  8. jmlease1
    Gasper didn't do well behind the plate last night, but I was actually a little surprised he got the error; seems to be almost random when the scorer gives those out for players trying to catch a foul ball. But it wasn't a good day in the field for either team. Outman may have had his best day at the plate since becoming a Twin, but looked like a guy who needs to be moved out of CF. And yet, we still did better than the Angels, who kicked the ball around even more. I'm still nervous about Martin's SLG being below his OBP, but if he can keep getting on base like this and find a few xbhs then he's going to have a role. He's starting to look like a classic leadoff man, so if he can get better with his decision-making on the bases, that might be a real asset. Be nice to have guys like Martin and Keaschall getting on base for big boppers like Buxton. I'm not ready to declare Royce Lewis fixed, but he's definitely looking better. The question is whether or not he can find this more consistently. And I'd definitely like to see him get to a point where he's comfortable taking walks and not hacking so much (still gets himself out too often chasing pitches out of the zone). But this was a good game. And he's had some recently where he's hammered the ball hard and it's just been right at someone. So hopefully he's finding a process that's working better. His play at 3B is certainly encouraging: he's back to looking like a real asset there. Happy to see Adams rack up 4 K's in relief and keep runs off the board. not thrilled to see him walk 2 in 1 2/3, but like seeing them test him as a reliever and not a bulk innings/starting role. Be great if he takes to the transition in role.
  9. jmlease1
    and the fact that St. L offered more years and more guaranteed money than anyone else. It's always about the money first, everything else second. (and I'm not knocking Sonny Gray for it one bit! He took the money and job security and went somewhere that had other ancillary benefits to him. Good for him.)
  10. jmlease1
    I think the headline here has probably overclocked where expectations should be set for Martin going forward. "Integral member" suggests that a) he's going to be a starter in 2026, and 2) that he'll be a significant part of the success or failure of that team as a player that will be counted on to really produce. I think that's probably aiming a little high for what Martin's role will be and should be, unless he keeps improving and heads more towards his ceiling as a player. I've been trying to think of reasonable Twins comps for Martin, and here's where I landed: Floor: Bobby Kielty (inconsistent hitter who got on base and could play a few spots in the OF; good enough to be a backup for several seasons by overstretched as a starter) Ceiling: Shannon Stewart (speedy OF who got on base a lot, hit pretty well and was best in LF; zero all-star appearances but a couple of seasons where you could make an argument and generally was a solid starter for 6+ seasons) Possible: Matt Lawton (speedy OF who got on base a lot but wasn't outstanding enough as a defender to play CF and didn't have enough pop to really play RF, but was a decent starter for several seasons) Possible: Dan Gladden (inconsistent hitter but good OF with solid speed and almost no pop) I think Martin can be better than Kielty (there's more speed and upside defensively), but it's probably a reach to get to Stewart. But if he's a Gladden or Lawton...that's a very useful player, even if they're not a star. We'll see. He's been doing much better this season, battling for walks and showing improvement in the field; even with some shockers on the bases, he's also shown upside there. I'm not ready to call him "integral", but part of fielding a good team is not giving innings to bad players and raising the floor. I think we'll have to look to guys like Jenkins to raise the ceiling, but if Martin can raise the floor by being a Matt Lawton? That will make a difference.
  11. jmlease1
    It's why I'm skeptical about Sabato! Historically, Sabato has done better at taking walks than he's shown so far in AAA, but it's a huge question mark and a reason why he's not getting a look I'm guessing. But he's at least got the unknown factor going for him and hits RH. I'm certainly skeptical about him, but I'm pretty convinced about who Kody Clemens already is, and it shouldn't be starting at 1B for the Twins.
  12. jmlease1
    More like 98% money, 2% closer to home, 0% anything to actually do with anyone at the Twins. He hasn't been used any differently with St. L than he was with the Twins when healthy 2023 - 5.75 innings/start 2024 - 5.93 innings/start 2025 - 5.64 innings/start So if he really has a beef with Rocco, he's having the same fight with Marmol. (more likely? Sonny Gray has never wanted to come out of any game he's started in his pro career whether he's getting shelled or not)
  13. jmlease1
    A silly story. Losing Gray wasn't the reason the Twins collapsed: losing Gray and not using the money saved by not re-signing Gray to shore up the squad is why the Twins have collapsed. Remember, Gray left and the Twins cut payroll. If they had brought Gray back they would have had to dump money somewhere else, because ownership mandated a payroll reduction. Now, the Twins were never going to offer a contract like St. Louis did, and they were almost certainly right not to. Gray was fine last season (not great, but a decent starter) and this season he's been more like SWR than a leader of a rotation. I guarantee people around here would be losing their minds at him getting paid $25M for what he's producing. Gray has been healthy, but he hasn't been great. I certainly wouldn't feel very good about being on the hook for $25M for Sonny Gray for 2026! It's all about "right-sizing" the payroll and pulling the rug out from under everyone by ownership. Not losing Sonny Gray's so-called "leadership".
  14. jmlease1
    right. McCusker also plays OF and Sabato doesn't. I have zero interest in seeing any more of the unfortunately named Outman, but I don't know if it makes that much difference getting Fedko a cup of coffee at the end of this gross season or not. I guess I'd rather make sure there's no doubt that guys like Outman aren't around in 2026? I don't really believe in Sabato either, though I respect how he's ground his way up to AAA after having real struggles to adapt. But I'd rather take a look at Sabato at 1B than waste time with Clemens, who is a truly inconsistent player and has such a dreadful OBP that I doubt the occasional home run barrage is worth it in the end.
  15. jmlease1
    I would drop both from the 40-man in the offseason; at this point I don't know if Outman gets picked up, frankly, but what do we lose if he does? His defense has slipped, he can't hit MLB pitching, and we have younger prospects with much more ceiling at this point. Same with Keirsey: he can't hit. His defense is excellent and his got nice speed, but he's a defensive replacement/pinch-runner, and that's simply not good enough. How many teams can afford to carry a 13th man with that limited of a role? I don't think either sticks on a MLB roster in 2026; they might land on the 40-man but neither has shown anywhere near enough to be a serious contender for a 26-man roster IMHO. Quad-A players.
  16. jmlease1
    This is going to be fun. Martin is exactly the kind of player a lot of people around here have been demanding that the Twins get in here for several years, and now that he's here I'm going to sit back and watch as the comments fly picking him apart. It'll be a long run of "I want this kind of player, but not THIS player". Martin looks like he could be a decent 4th OF to me, with the added bonus of being able to play 2B in a pinch. That's not quite super-utility levels but there's some positional flexibility. He's certainly looked better defensively in the OF, but has a ways to go on his route-running. That said, it's the kind of skill that he should be able to improve on and he has the tools for it. The baserunning has been...inconsistent. Tools are there, but training is not. Considering how bad of a 3B coach Tommy Watkins seems to be...is he getting any help with improvement? The speed is at least there when he should be able to be above average. Martin is not going to hit for power. That's clearly been scrapped. But he makes a lot of contact, can leg out the occasional swinging bunt, and takes his walks, so there's some viability there, especially if he starts getting plunked with regularity again like he did in the minors. He's showing that he can get on base. But with almost no pop in his bat at all, there's a real limit to his ceiling at the plate. I'd rather have Martin than Outman or Roden, which seems to be the competition right now. I'd prefer Martin to Clemens and his sub-.300 OPS too. But he should be a bench player, not a starter. He'd fit just fine if the primary starting OF was Buxton, Jenkins, and GG.
  17. jmlease1
    Rojas should not be in AAA. There was little reason to move him in there (especially with so many starters already as options) and all he's done at AAA is get his brains beat in. It's not like he'd proven mastery over AA; dude only had 4 starts there for Toronto before they called him up for 1 start. To me, this screams of "we need to prove that we were right about trading away Varland!" rather than doing what's best for his development...and one thing this front office has shown is that they're not great at admitting that they've made an error. He's got great talent, but needs real work. He should have gone to Wichita from the jump and if they wanted to see more of him this season he could have finished in AAA since the season runs longer. or send him to the AFL if they want him to get some additional work. But this has been dumb. Walker Jenkins is ripping it up and I'm not the least bit surprised. It's why there wasn't any reason to panic by the slow start as he got acclimated. That said, I don't see any good reason to call him up to MLB for the last dregs of this wasteland of a season. All we'd be doing there is a PR stunt, and I doubt it would do anything for his development. Keep the stink of this season off our best prospect. (and frankly don't give the short-attention span fans any reason to turn on him if he doesn't immediately smash it) Start him with the Twins in 2026 and give him a shot at Rookie of Year and give us all some hope, but he doesn't need to be part of the dumpster fire of 2025 to save a flailing front office and an embarrassing ownership.
  18. jmlease1
    Hunter's durability matters, but he's never had the ceiling that Buxton has. Torii never put up an OPS+ over 130; Buxton has done it 4 times. (as noted elsewhere: Torii was a better hitter in CA than in MN) It's not just about WAR. Hunter was a very good and occasionally great player who was durable and remarkable for staying consistently very good well into his 30's. Buxton is a great player who has battled injuries for his entire career. Hunter also piled up Gold Gloves during an era where they were still struggling to evaluate defense and kept giving it to the same guys year after year. Or do you really think Torii deserved all of those? Remember this was the era that Jeter won a bunch of GG's, and he was literally never the best defensive SS in the AL by any standard other than "he's the famous Yankee"
  19. jmlease1
    I think that's fair for low-A, but they're playing with their peers for the most part at High-A. Is AA a bigger and better test? Sure. Amick has done fine, but not staying on the field has put him behind a bit. Think he's shown enough at 3B to keep getting reps there, and I have no problem with him splitting time between 3B and 1B while we see if his bat plays. He's got a lot more value if he can be passable at 3B even if he's likely to be primarily a 1B. Overall he's done fine for his first full season as a pro, just wish he hadn't gotten hurt. Hate seeing prospects getting set back by injury.
  20. jmlease1
    He deserves it, but the team's El Stinko could leave him out of it. Sadly, if he hits more bonuses, I'm sure the Cheap Pohlads will use it as an excuse to lower the payroll more. ("We have to make sure we have room to pay Buxton's incentives! We can't possibly increase payroll with this expense hanging over our heads!" - Joe Pohlad, probably)
  21. jmlease1
    The formula for Bohorquez is pretty simply: command your pitches well enough so you don't walk 3-4 guys and let your stuff carry you and he has success. Nice to see him continuing to develop. He's done pretty well since hitting Cedar Rapids, and hopefully they'll be able to stretch him out a little more next season. Kaelen Culpepper definitely looked like he might be hitting a wall in August; it was easily his worst month, with everything going in the wrong direction: less contact, more K's, fewer walks, no power. Good to see him having a good week and hopefully finishing strong. If the biggest thing he has to work on in the offseason is building up stamina and learning how to handle the grind of the long season, I think we're in a great place. I'm hoping Rosario can keep raking and finish up Sept strong as well. Needs to make sure he keeps taking his walks; he seems to be a player that gets out of whack when he starts swinging at everything, but he's done a good job this season of pulling himself out of slides and his august was awesome. I'd rather see him on the 40-man than a retread like Outman. Happy to just see Amick back playing, but the homers are a nice bonus. Hopefully he's feeling good and can get some ABs in. Have to wonder if he might be a candidate for the AFL, since he missed a big chunk of time?
  22. jmlease1
    I hope he never leaves and plays his full career in MN and goes down in Twins history as a beloved player. (I think he should go down in history as a beloved player even if he leaves, but some people get mad about it. what's crazy is it seems like equal numbers seem mad that he keeps saying that this is his home and he never wants to go anywhere else) Regardless of what happens, I'm going to remember Buck for the unbelievable catches, the thrill of him legging out a triple, the awesome homers, and watching opposing defenses panic as he turns on the jets for a "routine" play and makes it into something more. Love watching that dude play. Was at the game last night and it sucked having them blow the game in the 9th...but Buck was worth watching all game. Made hard catches look easy. Made a ton of catches. racked up another triple (the most consistently exciting play in baseball), and tried to give us hope with a double in the 9th.
  23. jmlease1
    I was referencing all MN pro sports owners, not just the Twins. I mean, Norm Green may have been a far bigger a$$hole, but I don't recall him screwing the fans and then acting like he was doing us a favor...
  24. jmlease1
    He looks great, and he's the best reason (and one of the only reasons) to watch the Twins finish out this depressing season. I love Byron Buxton. I'm thrilled that he's finally able to play healthy and pain-free and do all the things that have made him one of the most exciting Twins in franchise history. Last night's game ended in disappointment once again, but watching Buck cruise for a triple and double was delightful. He can make the awesome look easy.
  25. jmlease1
    Nothing like a disaster season with the most tone-deaf ownership in MN history to put Twins fans on tilt. Buxton has been great all year and anyone who is turning on him at this point needs a nap.
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