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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    If he asks for $12-15M he will be told no. (and laughed at behind closed doors, probably) There will be precisely zero market for him at anything near that number. To other teams, he's probably only looking at offers in the $5-7M range. To the Twins he would be worth slightly more in that he has greater value to them as the lifelong Twin, the hometown kid, etc. Frankly, I'd be rather surprised if he got an offer higher than 1 year at $6M from another team.
  2. jmlease1
    If I had to bet, I'd go with a 1-2 deal. But Mauer is fairly sphinx-like: you never really know what he's thinking because he doesn't tell anyone. (which is why the dan barreiro's of the twins media use him as a punching bag so often) I don't think he goes anywhere else, even to chase a ring. He can still play and he's been pretty healthy the last two years, so i think he'll want to play. I think the FO isn't going to shove him out the door if he wants to play, unless his contract demands are ridiculous. they'd get crushed if Joe Mauer has a press conference where he says, "I wanted to keep playing, but they wouldn't even offer me a contract."
  3. jmlease1
    I don't mind them playing around with the "opener" concept. It's an opportunity in a lost season to try out some new concepts, try some people in some different roles and see how they react. It may not be a keeper, but I actually like the idea of pushing relievers & starters to do things outside of the regimented and hyper-defined roles they have been formed into over the last 30 years. Glad to see Kohl Stewart have a good outing. Not sure what his future is yet, but if he can throw strikes and finish off ABs with some efficiency he could be a good innings-eater with the weak contact he induces.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm excited about Rortvedt too. He took a very important step forward as a hitter this year. It shouldn't have been a surprise for him to have improved as a hitter when repeating a level for the first half of the season, but he kept it up after moving up to Ft. Myers, where he was young for the level and it's generally known as a pitcher's league (Alex Kirilloff not withstanding). I suspect he'll start the year in high A again next year and if he continues to hit like he did this season he'll move to AA around midseason. But the improved hit tool makes him a real live prospect now.
  5. jmlease1
    well, for those asking what more Gonsalves needed to do to make it out of AAA, we're seeing it here: he's got to cut down on the walks. Hopefully he's learning from this, but right now he looks like a guy who has a ways to go before he's ready to compete for a roster spot. I'm fine with continuing to run him out there this year, see how he responds to the adversity, see if he can start to make some adjustments...but this is pretty much what I expected to happen considering how many walks he was still giving up in AAA. I hope Kepler finishes strong this year, but this season feels like a disappointment to me. The defense continues to be good, but he hasn't taken the step forward on his hitting that I think everyone was hoping to see. That low BA is really holding him back.
  6. jmlease1
    What would he really have gained by jumping up another level to get into AA for a month at the end of the season? It's more likely to create misleading results than inform you of anything about him as a player and isn't going to advance his skill set in any significant way. he's still going to start next year at AA; 30 ABs isn't going to change that. One of the great things about Ft. Myers for developing prospects for the Twins is they have more advanced facilities there (because it's also the spring training home) than any other minor league affiliate. (consider the fact that he's coming off a major injury) It's an excellent place for a guy like Kirilloff to develop and rushing him out of there for 30 meaningless ABs doesn't seem like a smart, considered plan to me. He's a top prospect, he's going to being a huge riser in the offseason rankings, but right now the twins seem to have a plan for him and it's been working.
  7. jmlease1
    How are we feeling about Rortvedt's progression as a catcher? He's showing solid progress as a hitter this year, I think. If his defense and gamecalling is showing similar progress, he'll be moving up the prospect lists in the offseason.
  8. jmlease1
    Agreed. Royce is going to be fine. Let him finish out the season, hopefully he can bust out of the slump before the end, but it's a good lesson for him. Kirilloff is remarkable as a hitter. FSL hasn't fazed him at all, and that's wonderful to see. I'm guessing Lewis repeats the level to start next season, Kirilloff makes the jump to AA. Just a guess.
  9. jmlease1
    It's one of the reasons not to have pushed them up to AA this season. Letting them get through the year of full-season ball like this isn't a bad thing. It's not like either is old for the level. Kirilloff has cooled off some, so it will be interesting to see how he controls the strike zone going forward now that he's not hitting everything in the world. I suspect hell be just fine. Think either are AFL candidates?
  10. jmlease1
    He's arbitration eligible, but there's no reason not to bring him back. He's a solid back of the rotation guy who gives up a few too many hits and walks to be great. If he dropped 1 walk per 9 and 1 hit per 9 while keeping the K/9 where they're at this year (nearly a career high) he'd be a very nice pitcher. As it is, he's useful but not someone you give a multiyear deal to. But having a guy like him while you develop your younger guys with more upside is a good idea. I'm baffled by the idea he wouldn't be considered for the rotation next year.
  11. jmlease1
    Pineda's "start" is interesting. It'd be nice if he makes it back to pitch a little in MLB this season, but making sure he's ready for 2019 is the priority. Hmm. How do people feel about a rotation of Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Romero and one of Gonsalves/Thorpe/Meija? Not enough upside? too great a risk for regression/injury/inconsistency/growing pains? because right now, that could be the group we're looking at. Pineda's recovery will be worth tracking. When healthy, he should be a quality pitcher...
  12. jmlease1
    I'd shut down Reed, there's just no way he's right. Duffy has earned another run, as a reliever. Let's see if Hildenberger can work through it. Maybe he can adjust to the adjustments. Have we given up on May as a starter? If so, he should be a nice piece for next season. health is his problem, not ability. I do ascribe to the idea that relievers are fungible and the least consistent guys out there. there's very few that are worth paying big money on multi-year deals. So let's see what we can get out of the young guys. Moya & Rogers look good from the left side. Reed was fine until he got hurt, and should be the good vet for next year. May looks like he's healthy (so far) and give you a quality righty as well. Hildenberger and Duffy might be the other 2 pieces. That's not a bad 'pen for next year, just not one that's got a lot of big names. the question is going to be depth when guys inevitably get nicked up or struggle for a stretch. but I see no need to keep a belisle around or muck about with a washed up vet.
  13. jmlease1
    I doubt anyone is going to give up much for Forsythe, and he's a functional MLB 2B, so I'm fine with letting hold down the fort until the end of the year. Let him get some ABs and see if he's a guy they think can return to his TB form, or he's really a guy who's started on his decline phase and won't be a significant factor going forward. If the Twins evaluators run through the offseason and think he's the best option to hold things over for next season, I'd be ok with bringing him back on a 1 year deal. he could be a reasonable bridge to Gordon, if the team thinks Gordon isn't going to be ready next season. (who knows, maybe what we'll need is a bridge to Royce Lewis at SS, with Polanco moving over to 2B) I would not extend him now, no way. There's little chance the team could do a deal that would make sense for the club right now anyways; does anyone think Forsythe would accept a 1 year extension at $2M? I don't. I'm fairly certain his advisers would tell him "keep hitting, you're going to be a free agent, we can sell you better now that the dodger nightmare is over". he still might not get more than $2M or so, but someone might offer him a 2 year deal, someone might go higher (if he hits like he did in 2016, $5M would be a steal). Let it play out.
  14. jmlease1
    I think both things are pretty much a lock. Only thing that will keep him out of the AFL is the team deciding he needs a break after playing a full season coming off a significant injury. And he's definitely not going back to Ft. Myers after the way he's torn the cover off the ball. Next year will be a good test for him, facing pitchers that should have a more refined approach.
  15. jmlease1
    He needs to cut down on his BB and get deeper in games. He's having a fine year, and there's no doubt he'll be contending for a spot in the rotation next year but he's not a slam dunk. He doesn't have the kind of electric stuff that makes him a slam dunk, and his command/control is going to need to be strong in order to thrive. I expect he'll get a shot as a Sept callup. I don't know that it would help his development any to move him up any faster. Maybe coming up now for a start and getting shelled as the walks kill him would help him refine his approach and buckle down on that area, but I kinda doubt it.
  16. jmlease1
    This. The ability to keep the ball in the park and force guys to just keep beating the ball into the ground is a useful skill, especially in today's era of launch angle and emphasis on power hitting. Gibson changed the trajectory of his career from fringe starter/innings eater to mid-rotation backbone by making a few adjustments that added some Ks to his arsenal. Right now, Stewart looks like the old Gibson: useful, but probably not consistent enough to be a fixture. His ability to make some additional adjustments (he's still a fairly young guy, and remember Gibson didn't make this leap until his age 30 season) will determine his future. A bit more help from the D and he probably gets through 6 and we think about him a little differently. He's an interesting pitcher, should compete for a spot in the back end of the rotation next year, depending on what they do in free agency. He's still got some things to work on, but it's good he's getting this chance.
  17. jmlease1
    Because he's still walking too many guys? He's on pace for a career high in BB/9. Considering how many guys come up and nibble even more in their first spin at MLB, could be a recipe for disaster. i still expect him to get a look in Sept, but let's not pretend he doesn't have things to work on.
  18. jmlease1
    I've been very pleased with kepler's continued good defensive play, but I'm concerned about the hitting. there's some positives in the peripherals, but also some things that make you wonder if there's going to be much more advancement. drivelikejehu makes a good point: it's harder to blame this season's low BA on luck when kepler has never had a BABIB over .276 in his MLB career. What if last season was the aberration and we should expect something around .265? He might actually only be a little unlucky this year (.252) not significantly so. The ISO has been remarkably consistent: 2016: .189 2017: .182 2018: .187 I don't think the jury is in yet on Max; the fact that he's not getting crushed by LHPs this season is a good sign...but it's a pretty SSS. (I'm not ready to say he's figured it out based on 130 PAs) His struggles against RHP is a bit weird, after 2 seasons where he raked against them, so maybe the bad luck is concentrated there? not ready to give up on Max, but overall this feels like a disappointing season so far. maybe he'll finish strong? I'm rooting for him, to be sure.
  19. jmlease1
    They're throwing in the towel because the team underperformed and injuries/suspensions to key people made it worse. They're not in contention for the division (they were what...9 games back at the deadline?), they haven't been in contention for a wild card either, being even further back than for the division. They loaded up for a run at the division this year, adding veteran pieces to try to stabilize the rotation and the bullpen, and started the season with what should have been a solid lineup. It didn't work. So they're moving on from the people who are mostly going to be free agents next year. The only guy who wasn't is Pressly, and it seems like they got a good return for him. It's not the results we were hoping for, but it's not a sign that they don't have a clue or don't have a plan. I'd rather have cold-eyed realism about what this team is and what it is not than pie in the sky idealism about "maybe they can win 14 straight and get back in it!" (which still probably leaves them 4-5 back, but whatever)
  20. jmlease1
    Reed? No way. He's signed at a reasonable price for next season and is a good reliever, despite occasional struggles this season. He's a keeper in a good bullpen. Odorizzi is under team control for another season and is a solid mid-rotation starter who can gobble up some innings and be a veteran presence on a young staff. Morrison? Fine, but don't expect to get much. I'm fine with this deal. It's one of the reasons I was ok with the Rodney signing in the first place: I figured he'd be moveable if things didn't go well with the team and a 1 year deal is fungible. Looks like they got a lottery ticket on this prospect: great stuff with control problems and some mechanical issues. He's worth taking a shot on if you have confidence in your minor league staff. Let's get Curtiss up here and pitching high leverage situations. Let's give May a run at a closer's role and see how he reacts. How about seeing what Luke Bard has got going?
  21. jmlease1
    I have to say, I'm happier when Astros fans are saying the Astros overpaid...and Baseball America likes the return for MN.
  22. jmlease1
    I tend to see relievers as fairly fungible assets, so getting a good return on Pressly who has been frustratingly inconsistent in his time on the MLB roster is good. It's not like we don't have young relievers who look ready to contribute for the big club, so I don't see moving on from Pressly as a disaster by any means. I don't think this sends any real signals about next year's team at all. Trading Gibson or Odorizzi for A-ball lottery tickets might be a signal, but the real decision is going to be in free agency when we see what the FO does with all that payroll flexibility. They could be looking at $50M+ coming off the books allowing for a lot of room to sign FA pieces. If they don't spend to fill holes, then you'll know, but trading a reliever like Pressly doesn't real mean a lot on that front.
  23. jmlease1
    Part of me hates this deal, because Escobar was so fun to watch this season. Of the tradable assets, he's the guy I secretly wanted them to not find the right deal for and I could hope that he'd find a way to break the doubles record this season. But its hard for me to argue with selling after that pathetic KC series. And we could win 3 out of 4 against Boston and still be 6 back of cleveland with no real hope of wild card contention. There's some good high-upside prospects in here; no sure things, and I'm always nervous when reports are already getting ready to turn a starter into a reliever when a guy hasn't even gotten out of A-ball yet, but deals like this are how you end up with a deep strong system that turns out all-stars and lets you survive guys with high hopes busting. We will see what's next.
  24. jmlease1
    Kirilloff just keeps on rolling. I keep going back and forth on promoting him. It's been a pretty short time in High A. It's a fairly small sample size. He's only 20. But my goodness he just keeps. on. hitting! I'm not worried about walks when he's hitting over .380 with an OBP over .400. That seems fine to me. 30 games or so left in the minor league season. Does it make sense to jump him up another level for 30 games? Does it mean anything? Hard to think he shouldn't be starting at AA next season regardless, and going to the AFL sounds like a good idea too. I dunno, but it's starting to look like we might have a gem here.
  25. jmlease1
    This is a pretty weird Twins team. They're definitely under performing overall, they've had some bad luck, and they just haven't had a lot go right. Coming off a nice run into the all-star break, they fall flat on their face against an awful KC team. Then they come back and sweep Toronto? Glad to see Garver hitting. He's actually been pretty good this season, taken a solid step forward from his cup of coffee last year. He's still got work to do on his catching to stick back there as a starter, but he's already a nice asset with his hitting and positional flexibility. Oh, another "fun" Twins stat: Record in One Run Games: 5-17 .227 Yuck. There's your margin with Cleveland right there.
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