jmlease1

I think Rod Carew would have been all over modern analytics. This was a guy who adjusted his batting stance based on who he was facing on the mound, and very clearly thought a lot about what he was doing in the batter's box. Don't know about Oliva? Analytics like this can be really helpful for players that can incorporate it into their work. Jeffers has always seemed interested. The trick is always in translating the information into something that's actionable for the player. But that's no different than any of the old-school methods of improving a player's swing or results at the plate: what can the coach tell them that they can use to improve? For some guys, seeing the data helps them commit to an adjustment. Understanding the why makes it easier to try something different. Other might need a different approach, but that can still be based in data and information rather than being purely about vibes.

It's a real issue. While it does happen that great players can also be good/great managers, but often the skillsets are too different and the all-star player can't translate the things that made them great for other (lesser) talents. Many can't explain how they did something: they just did it. Now, some players who were thought of as great leaders can be CEO type managers who work the clubhouse and the media and leave the tactical and skills prep to their coaches. I think you see this in the NBA a fair amount, but the great players still flame out a lot too. For every Jason Kidd there's an Isiah Thomas. Molitor was manager of the year...but also got fired and never took another managerial job. YMMV on whether he worked out as manager? But that's a hall of famer who took a managerial job in the last decade. I think most great players aren't interested in the grind of managing, along with the travel, once they're in retirement.

No. If his arm might not play at 2B, it's not going to play at 3B. He's more likely to shift to 1B or OF than 3B. But Lewis' defense was looking good again at 3B, especially in the second half as he really got his legs under him. Moving him seems unlikely.

I both want the special arm and fear taking them. I would love to get a front-line college starter who could step in almost immediately. And I'd probably be too scared to take them! Oh, the injury risk... :P

It'll be interesting to see where Winokur, Mendez, and Amick are after a couple of weeks in the AFL. Feels like they all have some things to prove. And it should be a good test for Winokur & Amick in particular.

He seems like an interesting candidate? He certainly ground his way up, which you have to respect. Maybe that would help him understand the struggles young players have in adjusting to new levels of competition, and we're certainly going to be seeing a bunch of those guys. He does sound well-rounded, rather than someone known for doing one or two things really well, but who knows. I'd be surprised if the Red Sox didn't let him interview. And frankly, it would be a real knock against their organization if they didn't.

I don't hate Arraez, I just think he's got a limited skill set that doesn't help the Twins enough. I agree that Clemens shouldn't be getting a lot of time on a good team: he's a useful bench player who can swat some homers, get on a hot streak, and play credible defense at several positions. But I think we're keeping him for next season, so part of the equation at 1B is how can he be deployed optimally? With Arraez on the team, there's really no 1B time outside of defensive replacement that makes much sense. That's part of why Andujar might be a good fit: he pounds LHP, he might be able to play a quality 1B with reps, and while he's best at hammering LHP, he's not helpless against RHP so you don't have to put him in a strict platoon, which can help you from over-exposing someone like Clemens. Comping Arraez's OBP to Buxton's doesn't really help here: Buxton is a far superior all-around player, so finding a stat where Arraez looks the same to an all-star CF doesn't really sell me any more on Arraez; instead it says to me that Arraez needs to be able to do more things well to be anywhere near Buxton's level. With Wallner, it's not really even a question of which one is "better": we have Wallner under team control for cheap, he's got some useful skill sets that can make him a useful/valuable RF/DH. We shouldn't be picking between Arraez & Wallner. And as much as the Twins have needed more contact-oriented players the last couple of seasons, with Keaschall & Martin in the lineup, we do have more of that in place now. But if you were adding another contact heavy guy, wouldn't you want them to have the speed to go with it? Arraez isn't a bad player, but he's limited. Would he be getting any real consideration if he weren't a former Twin?

Justin Lebron is interesting, but the step back he took in SEC play is a little worrisome. Feels like there's a real step down after Cholowsky from the college ranks? But is that because Cholowsky just looks like such a can't miss star prospect or because the other guys are lesser talents? Interesting question. And some people might like the way they see Lebron's tools translating and value his quickness. Seems like things are really open right now after Cholowsky.

I think Adams and Ohl are interesting options for middle relief, and have potential to do better. I would definitely be looking at Raya for a relief role; he's got the stuff and seems less and less likely to make it as a starter. Funderburk did well enough to have a role, but I would prefer he not be the only LHP in the bullpen. If you keep Topa & Sands there's still 2-3 spots you need to fill, and those need to be back-end guys not middle relievers. Just don't know if they're ready to move anyone from the Festa/Mathews/Bradley/Morris/Abel group into the bullpen yet, and I understand the reluctance. I'd like to see them spend $15-20M on the bullpen (for once) to get a quality set-up guy, someone with experience closing games, and a LH option in some combination. That, plus Sands, Topa, Ohl, Adams, and Funderburk takes this bullpen from disaster zone to acceptable...with potential for more if guys like Adams or Ohl show an ability to step up, and someone like Raya is able to be a quality reinforcement for the inevitable injury/ineffectiveness of someone in the 'pen. I don't think there's a good path to a quality bullpen internally alone. They burned it down too far for that, and there needs to be some outside infusions to support the internal candidates. (even finding a Sergio Romo type would help)

It's fascinating when someone becomes so blinded by hatred and/or contempt like this that they can't see any possible way for a person to do anything correctly. The idea that a managerial candidate from another organization can't possibly be good because Falvey might like them is pretty wild.

Listen, you're the one who brought up Arraez vs Goldschmidt. The knock on Arraez is he hasn't produced that well for the past two seasons. He's currently showing exactly one skill: contact. Now, he's elite at it and it generates a lot of hits for him, but he's giving you nothing else. He doesn't walk, he doesn't hit for power, he doesn't run, he doesn't defend...and he only does his one big skill against RHP. That's a limited player. I'm not going to pretend Wallner isn't a limited player: he is. He's not a good fielder, despite a superior arm, and when it's going badly for him he's a K machine. But he's also cheap and a very reasonable candidate for a rebound, since 2025 was far and away his worst season in MLB (I think we can ignore the cup of coffee he got in 2022). You're talking about giving Arraez $15M. Diaz & Andujar are both better fits at 1B for the Twins. Diaz is a poor defender, but he fits with Clemens backing him up, being a defensive replacement late in games, and letting Diaz hit. Notably, Diaz had exactly 6 fewer hits than Arraez, while taking a lot more walks and clouting 25 dingers to boot. But it's a fairly big assumption that TB will decline the $12M option, considering how well he played last season. Andujar is an interesting option. He's got limited experience at 1B, but he's also a player who might do better getting off 3B and trying to play OF and just sliding in as a 1B/DH guy. He's appeared there, even if the experience is limited. Last season's hitting might have been a high point, though; he really struggled for 4 seasons in a row before finally getting back on track a bit in 2023. So there's some risk that he's more of a 105-110 OPS+ guy rather than a 125 thumper. But he's got a fine track record of hitting LHP and can hold up ok against RHP, allowing the team to mix and match with Clemens (whom I presume will be on the team). I suspect his price tag will be more in the $6-8M range, which might actually fit the Cheap Pohald Payroll. I'd certainly prefer someone like Naylor (even if he's a LH hitter who isn't great against LHP) but Naylor has likely priced himself out of the Twins market.

Giving Arraez $15M per season is a fireable offense. I know he's a super likable dude and was a very popular ex-Twin, and he's extra appealing to the "strikeouts are the greatest evil in the baseball universe" crowd, but he's not a great choice for 1B for almost any team and especially bad as a fit for the Twins. And $15M? Why would anyone give him a raise at this point? Which is more likely: Arraez returns to his 2023 form at 29 with bad knees, or continues as he's been the last 2 seasons? Arraez has really reduced the number of walks he takes and basically swings at everything now. It's great that he led the NL in hits, but not great that his OBP was in the Wallner/Larnach/France range. He's got little to no pop in his bat (in part because he's swinging at everything with a lot of weak contact), has zero speed, and is poor defensively at 1B (he's a tiny elf, no exactly getting a big target to throw at). He really shouldn't play 2B at all any longer, either, but thankfully we don't really have a need there. But for the Twins, he's an especially poor fit, because he simply doesn't hit LHP (and has never hit LHP) which means you can't even do a split with someone like Clemens that makes any sense. There's a reason SD was trying to dump his salary last season, and I doubt they're going to make much effort to bring him back. If anyone gives him $15M per season, I'll eat my hat.

I think he's a solid middle reliever and $2M is a reasonable rate. The injury issues are the biggest concern there, but I'd say it's still worth the risk there coming off a pretty healthy season. Considering how there's a real possibility of how many spots are potentially getting filled with inexperienced relievers (Adams, Ohl, Raya, maybe Festa, etc) who are not just inexperience at being MLB players but inexperienced at being relievers, really...having a vet presence in Topa who has already been here isn't the worst idea. Pay the $2M, don't try and play games with arbitration to (maybe) chisel out $150K.

It's a little amusing to see Aaron Boone's name here as a potential comp when Yankees fans are ready to fire him into the sun. Torii might be fine. He's the risk/reward candidate, I think? The vibes would definitely change, which would help. The real question is what happens if/when the team has their first losing streak (and if the Cheap Pohlads stick him with a payroll under $100M, they will have a long losing streak at some point, possibly many of them) or something like that. Will Torii play to the media or his team? There's evidence from him as a player that he might play to the media, but he's also older, more experienced, and no longer a player. So you don't know. The people looking for a different type of tactician or for less general strategy to be directed from the front office will probably be disappointed. The people who expect the manager to be spending lots of time themself drilling players on the fundamentals will also likely be disappointed. The people who want a little more fire and more interesting interviews from the manager are likely to be happier. I do think the team would be wise to pair a manager like Torii with an experienced hand as a bench coach. Personally, I think Torii Hunter would be a manager whose flaws will be minimized when his players are healthy and performing well and maximized when they're injured and underperforming. Which applies to a lot of the league.

I agree that the Twins should be able to find a 1B at a reasonable price that fits even their limited budgets (and frankly they should be able to spend a decent amount rather than just dumpster dive unless the Cheap Pohlads are bound and determined to clear an 8 figure profit for themselves and their new partners in year 1 of this limited whateverness). But whoof, there's a lot of dumpster diving on that list. Guys to avoid: Santana (really be betting on a bounce back at his age of 912?), France (who defended well, hit poorly), Bell (a butcher in the field), Wade (poor 1B and really sucked last season), Tellez (probably worse than Clemens), Turner (probably cooked at 41 and retiring), Moncada (never played 1B), Hoskins (hasn't been the same player since a serious injury), and Goldschmidt (hit the age wall and rep will overprice him). Increasingly it looks like there's 2 guys at the top of the market in Alonso & Naylor (probably out of the Cheap Pohlad league). The Japanese guys would be showing some creativity. Could we land either? No idea, but it's intriguing. Best of the rest: Mountcastle (who swings at everything), Diaz & Andujar (not good defensively, but they can hit and do it from the right side), Arraez (bad defender, unplayable against LHP, declining), and O'Hearn (not great defensively either, wish he was RH). Diaz, if he's let go by TB ($12M isn't unreasonable, but it's TB) might still be gettable? Andujar might hit enough to be worth a shot and maybe getting him permanently at 1B ticks the D up? If the Cheap Pohlads don't tank the payroll completely (I can't believe I'm begging for a payroll of $125M from these greedy twerps) I'd go hard at Diaz (if TB lets him walk) or Andujar early and get a RH 1B on a 2-year deal if they'll go for it. Might be a little too high on Andujar, but he's going to thump LHP, can hold up on RHP well enough (and get spelled by someone like Clemens) and there's a little more upside there. Diaz will hit. Won't do a lot else, but...

Best player available. Would love to get Cholowsky; everything about him to date screams "star quality". And I don't worry about position for the draft: guys this good will get on the field. I'd love to have the problem of deciding who should be the long-term SS for the Twins, Culpepper or Cholowsky.

I think there's a good argument for Carlos Correa to be on this list. Sure, he wasn't as straight-up bad as some other players, but he was the highest paid player at the start of the season and by bWAR barely managed to get himself above replacement level while starting 93 games. The difference between expectation and performance was really high. Adams wasn't good, of course, but he only threw 33 innings and showed signs of life as a 1 inning reliever late in the year. I'd swap Adams for Correa. I mean, Brooks Kriske really stunk, but it was 12 innings after the season had reached "It doesn't matter anymore" stage. Outman was dreadful, but did it matter, other than making people angry that we brought him in at all? Sucks seeing Brooks Lee on this list. I've been very high on him, and he hasn't shown out in MLB yet at all. I haven't given up on him yet, but next season is a big one for him.

Easy choice to tender. What his specific role should be in the Twins bullpen in 2026 is a little more murky, but there's no question he'll be part of it. I feel like he could actually do well as a classic 9th inning guy, rather than maybe being a "fireman" deployed against the heart of a lineup in late & close regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th, or 9th. But YMMV.

Nailed it. If Pablo gets moved, it means the payroll is going to be locked at under $100M for sure and the only way to add anything to the team was to create more payroll space. But trading a dollar for 2 quarters, a dime, and a nickel is a classic way to ensure you lose. I'd hate the idea of trading Ryan; he's a great pitcher who is also very fun to watch. He's a player you'd hope to extend, not deal. But in theory you could move him and get a really big return, even if it might take another couple of seasons to develop that talent. Pablo would still bring back quite a bit, but less likely to get the truly high end, low-risk prospects. The one thing trading Pablo could do is bring back a proven MLB bat with a $10M+ contract...but I just don't see it happening.

I think you have to non-tender him and then see if there's something you want to work out. I don't hate him as a middle innings mentor, I guess and the difference between league minimum and what he'll command should be largely irrelevant. I just don't want him clogging up a guaranteed roster spot? If we hadn't decimated our entire bullpen, I highly doubt we'd be having this conversation about Tonkin (he'd be a non-tender for sure), which leads me to think he should just be a non-tender period.

The scale they show at Baseball Reference for WAR lists 8+ as MVP quality, 5+ as all-star, 2+ as starter, 0-2 as Reserve, and less than 0 as replacement level. But the difference with any bRef overlap is irrelevant. Regardless, if you're not able to generate positive WAR, you would be considered replacement level, which includes players who produce negative WAR. They don't have an extra category for "so awful you shouldn't be allowed in MLB any longer" or anything to separate out the just 0 to -1.0 from the -1.0 to -2.5. They're all just considered "replacement level". Which describes Genesis Cabrera very very well.

It's actually been exactly 10 seasons in a row of losing records for the Pirates; they had a nice 3 year run with McCutchen where they made the playoffs with some good teams that couldn't get out for the first round. Very Twins-like. Of course they had 20 years of losing records and no playoffs from 1993-2012 after losing Bonds...

He does look like he can be a good reliever in a competent bullpen. While I'd prefer for him not to be the only LHP in there, the mechanical change followed by improved results have me hopeful his performance after the deadline wasn't just small size but a reflection of what he's actually capable of now. He was one of the very few bullpen positives we saw after The Decimation. If he can be a Thielbar type for the next several years that would be very useful.

I mean, Cody is the king of click-bait stories/headlines. There's reason to fear: if you have bad/cheap ownership, it's easy to have the whole thing collapse on you and stink for extended periods of time. After 1992, we had 8 seasons in a row where the club finished 4th or 5th in the division under TK. After an extended period of success under Gardy, we saw 4 straight 90 loss teams that were really really bad. But Pittsburgh has also drafted poorly over the last decade outside of Skenes. Looking at the first 2 rounds from the last decade, outside of Skenes (a generational talent) their best picks were: Lodolo (who they didn't sign), Baz (who they traded), Triolo (pretty good!), and a trio of ok pitchers. Not great. They've gotten basically zero value from their later round picks as well. If you look back, you're not finding a Bailey Ober or a Griffin Jax in there. Even with the Twins struggling to translate prospects to consistent regulars, there's little question that the Twins have drafted better than the Pirates. Pirates have some potential in their rotation, but after Skenes their 2nd best starter would have been the Twins 4th best starter. Not great. Their bullpen was pretty good, but so was the twins before we intentionally decimated it. As bad as the Twins lineup is, Pittsburgh had 1 hitter on their entire roster who was above league average. ONE. Frankly, I'm amazed the Pirates won 70. Don Kelly might be a magician.

"replacement level player" is a specific term of art. and no one is saying it means they were good. If you have negative WAR, you're considered "replacement" level and the team should be able to replace your production with a random free agent. This absolutely sounds like Genesis Cabrera, who sucked and was available as a free agent twice last season. Offering him arbitration is a fireable offense IMHO. But the point to the article was to try and find a reason why someone might do it, so Seth got creative and really reached and found a scenario. It's crazy, but it was a theory.