jmlease1

The 31 starts and 178 2/3 innings in 2024 suggest otherwise. he might miss a little time through the course of a season, but it's pretty reasonable to expect 25-30 starts from him. It's going to be very interesting to see where Ober lands next season; there's a case to be made that the loss of velocity or the lack of sharpness in commanding his pitches or both are what pulled him down last season and figuring out how to alleviate that is the real issue for him. I was looking at the contrast in his seasons between 2024 and 2025 through the lens of Game Score, and where Ober really fell off this past season was in those high quality starts, anything with a Game Score of 55 or higher, which generally gives you a starting pitching performance that gives your team an excellent chance to win, and probably has the pitcher exiting either tied or with a lead. Ober had 19 of those in 2024, and only 12 in 2025. The poor starts (anything with a Game Score equal to or under 40 remained the same (6 each), and there wasn't much difference in the ones in between either (6 in 2024 and 8 in 2025). Even the truly awful blowups were basically the same (Game Score of under 30 was 4 in 2024 and 3 in 2025) Not getting as many of those high-end starts is what really dragged Ober's season down; he only had 1 with a Game Score over 70 in 2025 (his last start of the year, in fact), while he had 9 of them in 2024. Finding those stellar starts again might require getting back a little of that velocity AND the command to go with a sinker? I'm certainly not ready to give up on Ober, and trying to trade him now would be a classic case of selling low. If they can get the hip right in the offseason it might make a world of difference.

Were they really all that much better? They were 13 games out of first when Shelton was fired, and finished the season 26 games back. They won 6 out of 8 at the end of the season to fluff the record a bit. They did a little better under Don Kelly, but it's not like he transformed them or anything once the yoke of Shelton was removed. I don't think crediting Shelton for the success of a generational talent makes a great deal of sense, but he didn't mess him up. Is it Shelton's fault they only had 1 hitter on the whole team who wasn't below average?

Doubtful. There are so few MLB managerial jobs, and while 4-7 of them open up every year there's a LOT of people who want one, and more than few that will bet one themselves rather than take a pass because it's not perfect enough for them. Plus, once you get in the door, you can add "MLB managerial experience" to the resume. And while the Cheap Pohlads are cheap, the cost of a manager isn't that significant. Or do you really think people interviewing for the job were demanding $4M AAV on a guaranteed 5 year deal?

I think the biggest complaint people are making about Shelton (that he's going to be nothing but a yes-man for Falvey) is one you could make for any hire made by this front office. Since ownership decided to keep Falvey & Co, they were the ones making the hire. You never know about this stuff. Sometimes the guys who flunked out in the first managerial role excel in their next one. Sometimes they flunk it again. At the end of the day, it's going to be more about the roster, the players, and how healthy the team is for how successful Shelton is. He wasn't my first choice, but he's not a disqualifying or embarrassing one. Hope he learned some things in Pittsburgh (what not to do , if nothing else).

Let me be clear: I didn't think it was crazy to take a shot on Outman this year. Next year? That's a different story. Keeping Outman looks like throwing good money after bad. If he sticks on the roster, we're likely to see him hitting poorly, playing little, and wasting a roster spot for months even if (as is likely) one of Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Gonzalez is ripping it up, especially if Larnach is still on the roster. There are 5 hitters on the roster that out-performed Larnach last season: Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, Wallner, and Martin. Larnach unfortunately, was closer to Kody Clemens than he was to any of the others (99 OPS+ vs 96). Martin may have only gotten 50 games, but did well, showing real improvement and value in LF, an ability to get on base and do things with his legs (some of them not so great, but it is what it is). Roden still has options, so the Twins could elect to start him back in AAA with all of the other high upside OFs they have piling up there, but picking Outman over any of them at this point seems more like ego than intelligence to me. While I don't dislike Larnach particularly, his limitations (adding nothing defensively or on the bases) added to his seemingly limited upside and increasing cost makes him almost a liability. I'd prefer to start filtering some of the OF talent from AAA sooner rather than later.

Or they simply can't communicate how they were able to do something to players with lesser talent. One of the biggest issues today is the stars have made so much money, they don't need the job or the income. Many of them already have other business interests that are more impactful on their lives. (Torii Hunter might make more off his BBQ empire than he would as a MLB manager)

It's possible for them to drop the payroll all the way down to the $65-70M range, but even for the Cheap Pohlads and their terrible mismanagement of the business aspects of baseball, that seems unlikely. If you take their words (leaked and otherwise) at face value, they were claiming a loss of $30M was pending on a payroll of $142M. Again, if you presume they're being honest about wiping out the team's debt with the addition of limited partners, that should take $12M off the books at a minimum (presuming a favorable 3% interest rate on the $400M in debt). If $112M was the break-even point in 2025 and you're taking $12M of costs off the books, you could assume a payroll in the $120-125M range would be supportable without losing money on an annual basis. (let me be clear: under no circumstances to I think anyone should ever believe a professional sports owner when they make claims about their money unless you have the books in front of you and a forensic account by your side...and even then, you should probably get a second opinion) Now, I'm quite certain that season ticket and ticket package sales are in the dumpster right now and attendance will be substantially lower than last season's poor showing, but even then it should take additional bungling for the team to lose money on a payroll of $110M. It's certainly possible, of course: they've botched the business of baseball even more than the on-field product over the past 30 years. I would guess the floor is somewhere in the $105-110M range, with an upper limit of $125M. But with the Pohlads at the helm, anything is possible. I'd hardly be shocked if they forced a Pablo trade and tried to sell the fanbase that we should be happy they "let" the front office spend back up to $95M. We've come to expect tone-deaf and clueless statements from them for sure.

With Roden on the roster and Jenkins and Rodriguez in AAA (or maybe in MLB) you don't really need to bring in a Margot or Bader to cover CF, do you? (not that bringing in Bader was a bad decision; he worked out quite nicely, and arguably had the best season of his career) And keeping Outman is dangerous because of his lack of options. This team is terrible (and to be fair, most teams are like this) at cutting their losses if a player isn't performing and cutting them from the MLB roster means they are likely gone from the organization. Teams chase getting value back from under-performing players constantly and for every 2023 Max Kepler there's at least one 2023 Joey Gallo. Beyond that, Outman's defense in CF looked shaky and the metrics on his defense have backed that up. The fear of Outman getting 300 horrible AB's is not crazy. Larnach provides an ok floor as a hitter at least. Backing Outman is like trying to convince people that Ed Julien's rookie season is still more determinative than his last two seasons. (And I was on Team Julien) Outman is in a very similar spot.

The fear that the organization will keep Outman is not a great reason for keeping Larnach. Larnach is definitely better than Outman at this point, a much better and more consistent hitter. Whatever else Outman offers (much better defense, potential speed on the bases) doesn't make up for it because he appears to be completely lost as a hitter. While I disagreed with the trade at the time, and still think it was a mistake even with Stewart getting injured almost immediately, taking a shot on fixing Outman in the second half of a lost season isn't in and of itself a crazy idea; the guy was 3rd in Rookie of the Year in 2023, so you never know. But he was awful in 2024 and worse in 2025. At his age and with these results, he looks like a Quad-A player. I'd keep Larnach over Outman for sure. But with our self-imposed payroll limitations from crappy ownership, I'd move on from Larnach too. Outman should be a candidate for a minor league deal after being cut, and keeping him to justify a trade is more sunk cost fallacy from this front office and another reason to move on from them.

I've been on the fence on Klein. Just not sure what his pathway is considering how many baserunners he allows, as noted in the article. I suspect he'd be more effective as a short outing reliever, and I certainly believe in giving starters who clawed up to the high minors a shot at relieving before moving on, so I'd lean towards protecting Klein. I think there's enough chaff to be culled off the 40-man (things open up further if guys like Outman and aren't around) to make room for someone who could be of use. (and I think this is why CJ Culpepper gets protected as well: both he and Klein are guys that could be stashed in a bullpen for a season and I could easily see a team taking a shot at them to see what they can get out of sticking them in the bullpen. They certainly wouldn't be attached to keeping them in a rotation) I'd rather keep someone like Klein at the back of the 40-man than a retread like Genesis Cabrera.

I'm guessing Mendez is hurt. He'd have to be to miss an entire week? Been a tough haul for Winokur and Amick. Neither have been able to use the AFL as much of a springboard into next season, which is a bummer. Boadas has done well, but 6 BBs in 10 innings isn't sustainable.

You have Outman on this roster? Good god, why?!? He's been dreadful for 2 seasons in a row at the plate and his defense has slipped to where I'd rather have Martin play backup CF (and I don't really want that) than him. There's zero competition there.

How are we getting those players on the roster to actually get ABs if we're keeping Larnach? Maybe your argument is really keep Larnach over Wallner? Personally, I would keep the cheaper one who at least has a defensive asset (his arm) and has produced at much higher levels previously as a hitter, but it's an argument. I'd like a full-time DH to produce at higher levels than Larnach, and the team's defense would improve if neither Larnach or Wallner were patrolling out there regularly. Did Roden play well enough to deserve being handed a job? No, but it's not uncommon for players to struggle in the first taste of MLB, and he may be able to handle CF, at least as a backup. Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez all have higher ceilings at this point than Larnach; is it really that useful to the Twins to win 76 games with Larnach and 74 games without him? Or might we win those extra couple of games by spending the money "saved" on a competent relief pitcher and figuring out which corner OF (let's not forget Fedko) is ready to make the jump by actually giving them MLB AB's? Larnach isn't a terrible player, but he's limited. He doesn't add anything defensively or on the bases, and even though he's on the better side of the platoon, he doesn't punish RHP so well that you're terribly excited about him DHing most days. That .759 OPS against RHP is ok...if you add something else to the table. Wallner has a career OPS of .881 against RHP. Larnach has never broken an OPS of .800 against RHP in any season in his career. For a team that's rebuilding, why are we spending very limited resources hoping for...ok? Also, let's not pretend Larnach has any real value on the trade market. He was clearly shopped and no one bought at the deadline, and with his price increasing I wouldn't expect any more buyers.

Here's the thing: for Larnach to have a rebound season, you have to buy that 2024 is his real level as a hitter. There's a real possibility that 2024 was his peak instead. Larnach has most been protected against LHP...because he's quite bad at hitting it. Career OPS of .585 is brutal. Did he improve last season while facing more LHP? Sure, but it was marginal (.608 OPS is still putrid). And while he hits RHP, he doesn't really mash them. Even in his best season as a pro, he only put up a .784 OPS against RHP. That's not bad, but it's also not good for a guy who adds nothing defensively any longer, nothing on the bases, and is unplayable against LHP. Larnach is a primary DH platoon hitter, and he's getting more expensive than his bat is worth, while also blocking younger players with more upside. At 29 he might hit better than he did last season, but the ceiling isn't high. Considering the exceptionally low payroll the Cheap Pohlads are likely to impose, is $4M+ on Larnach the best use of funds? I think I'd rather free the team up to play Wallner more at DH (a much better masher of RHP) and see what we have with Roden/Rodriguez/Jenkins/Fedko/Gonzalez, FIVE players who have hit in AAA and who all play much better OF than Larnach. Keeping Larnach at this point is just raising the floor and limiting the ceiling. The team is unlikely to be going anywhere next season unless multiple young(er) players have a breakthrough; keeping Larnach at this point pretty much ensures that fewer of them will even get an opportunity, and for what? An upside of ok performance against RHP from a platoon DH?

I'm finding the interest in Ron Washington in any capacity to be a bit baffling. The last 2 seasons for the Angels went poorly in every possible way and his managerial success was more than a decade ago in Texas. He may be well-liked and respected, but add in age and health and so forth he seems like a poor fit for any role that demands the daily grind and travel of a MLB coaching staff. I'm a little leery of Shelton; while it's not entirely his fault for the Pirates for sure...where's the evidence he dragged anything additional out of anyone? But who knows. None of these guys looks like an eff no on the face of it. Servais is the safest bet I suppose?

well, his barrel rate was down; after being at 18.8% and 17.5% he dropped to 13.8%, which seems significant, even if he was still better than most of the league. Combined with a career-low hard hit rate and substantially worse success against fastball in 2025 compared to the previous 2 seasons, I don't think it's just the eye test here. Now, he also may have had some bad luck here, but the results do show some concerning metrics. And we certainly saw the "heat zones" on Wallner showing how much better he was on balls down than up in the zone. I'm not out on Wallner or anything, but it does seem like he needs to make an adjustment to get back to where he was. I'm encouraged by the fact that despite his struggles he still was around league average for his chase rate and was able to keep taking walks at his same kinds of rates. A little better luck and a return to form on handling fastballs (however he does it) and he's a weapon again. It's very possible, but I'm not ready to predict he's going to be back as a 140 OPS+ guy yet. It would be a huge benefit to the Twin if he does, and I'm certainly not going to panic about his poor results with RISP or Late & Close yet; those are truly small samples.

Wallner is probably the most divisive hitter on the Twins roster right now. His style is going to be anathema for some people: lots of K's, lots of BB's, lots of HRs, not a lot else. If he slips, then the hounds will be after him. While I think Wallner was a bit unlucky last season, the real key for him is going to be whether or not he can handle high fastballs at the top of the zone. He definitely got exploited there last season, and my impression was he got attacked there more as the season went along. That suggests people are getting a book on him and if you show a weakness like that, which is exploitable by a lot of pitchers, even relievers with questionable control, you'd better adjust quickly or things will go sideways. He might be capable of bringing back some defensive value; while he's never going to be quick, he could still improve his route running and surety with the glove. He was substantially worse last season in the field than he's ever been, but it's hard to know if that's a fluke or a trend. It could be he's just too slow and not a good enough fielder to do more out there, or it could be he was more tentative after pulling the hammy and going into a new season he's back to being a solidly below average fielder instead of a dreadful one. But regardless, he's likely to be looking at a shift down to DH more. Which is fine if he's getting back to hitting like he did in 2023-2024. I'll be curious to see how Wallner does handling offspeed this season; he really struggled with it in 2025, but it wasn't a huge part of his diet, so that could have been one of those small sample flukes...or it could have been his success in previous years was the small sample fluke. If he lands at career averages in 2026 that will help tick things up a bit. He still takes his walks and reads the strike zone pretty well. I think he's likely to rebound some but until he shows he can handle the high fastball I'm concerned it will be a more modest improvement.

Is the issue with Miranda development or injuries? What if the real issue with Miranda is after the shoulder, back, and hand injuries he simply can't generate much power in his bat any longer, make enough hard contact, catch up with good fastballs, etc? Maybe the beaning impacted him a lot more than anyone realized? If that's the case, it won't matter if Tampa or someone else gives him a shot or not. It's convenient to blame Twins player development on Miranda falling apart, but he's hit in AAA just fine in multiple stints there (2021, 2022, and a cup of coffee in 2024). He struggled in 2023, a year where he was fighting injury in both AAA and MLB. His 2025 in AAA was the worst he's been at any level ever and it wasn't really close. Seems very possible that something has changed physically for him, even if he's technically "healthy"? It's a shame, but Miranda looks done with the Twins. He's unlikely to get offered a MLB contract with us with no options left, and I suspect he'll look elsewhere for a minor league deal or go overseas rather than try and make a comeback here. Such a promising 2022, and the first half of 2024 suggested he was all the way back from the injury-filled 2023. I mean, he was raking before getting hurt in 2024. Then he missed some time, got beaned, and it's gone completely to hell for him. Baseball can be cruel.

I love how people are convinced that they know Royce Lewis based on a few interviews, maybe some social media, and what they've watched on tv. If there's one thing that various reveals of player's private lives (both during and after their careers on the field have concluded) it's that we don't effing know them. We don't know what's in their heads, and we don't know what's in their hearts. You hope that the public face is matched by their private selves when it's a positive one and (in at least some cases) that a grouchy/unpleasant exterior is just a front for a cuddly teddy bear when things are negative. But you don't know. You can't. Hells bells, we've had people around here try and be the Body Language Doctor and sell the idea that a player was a bad teammate because of how they interpreted what they thought they saw in the dugout after a home run. Once. It's just as crazy to read too much or too little into a couple of statements from Royce Lewis. Maybe the "I don't do slumps" was just a bit of self-bravado from a guy who was a struggling or a signal that he's a delusional fool...or maybe it was just a careless comment. In 4 seasons, Royce Lewis has never had a healthy year. This was the healthiest year he's ever had, and he still only hit 106 games. I imagine that's taken a real toll. Hopefully having a healthy offseason lets him work on a hitting program that gets his bat speed and swing where it needs to be to catch up to fastballs again. Maybe a normal offseason lets him get comfortable in a process where he's not hacking at everything in order to make contact, and he gets a good base under him with his legs seemingly in better shape than they've been for some time. It was encouraging seeing his sprint speed tick up and him running comfortably. It's a big year for him next season. 3B is his, but he's got to hit or it won't be long before he's non-tendered and looking for someone to take a chance on him. Have a big year, and he could be looking at a serious extension. I'm rooting for him to figure it out. But I'm not going to pretend I know Royce Lewis or try to make judgments on whether he's selfish or any of this other psychoanalysis.

2027, if TB picks up his option. I guess you trade for him if you want him for 1 year at $12M or if you think TB will pick up his option? I have no read on whether or not TB will pick up his option or what he really gets on the open market as a 34 year old primary DH who can play (poorly) at 1B? I think he's worth the $12M, but TB has a history of dumping contracts like this, so maybe he\'s available, maybe he isn't. His RH bat is a great fit for the Twins, but seems out of their price range and still kind of leave a hole at 1B, since he only played 40 games there this season and has never been very good defensively.

Andujar is one of the more interesting bets to me as well. Getting him to 1B might be a good fit and even if he hit more like the guy with the A's this season than the Reds, he'd do fine in our lineup, and even when he's been struggling at the plate overall he can mash LHP, which we need. But he's also got a long history of injury and ineffectiveness to overcome. Goldy didn't field particularly well for NY last season, and frankly hasn't been up to his reputation defensively for several years now. But he's still much more likely to go somewhere that has a clear path to the playoffs than head to MN. (He looks like a guy nearing the end and hanging on to me and not a great fit for the Twins, especially because those guys often get overpaid based on rep rather than performance)

They're way off on Naylor, who is not only going to get a 4th year, but also an AAV closer to $20M than $15M. They're also too high on Arraez, who is going to be lucky to find a 3 year deal, and highly doubtful at $14M AAV after his last 2 seasons. Hoskins is interesting at this price point, but it's a risky bet. He's unlikely to hit like he did in the Philly days again, but an OPS+ in the 110-120 range isn't out of the realm of possibility. But there's also a real concern that he's constantly getting dinged up, missing real time, and barely a league average hitter, while not adding much defensively. (He's not a butcher at 1B, but he's unimpressive) It's asking a fair bit for someone to get back to where they were at 33 after 3 seasons marked by 1) a severe injury that cost him the entire season, 2) a fairly healthy but unimpressive return season that can't be blamed on just rust (Hoskins started out fast, missed some time, struggled, and then finished ok), and 3) a season where injuries wiped out most of the second half. Hoskins is the kind of bet the Twins don't have the payroll to buy themselves out of if they're wrong, which is the real problem. 2 years $14M would be a reasonable contract for a guy that fits a lot of their needs...if healthy and performing. And the Twins do have the ability to stash him at DH some to try and keep him healthy, which he barely did in MKE with Yelich the primary DH. To me, a lot of it depends on where the payroll lands. If it's in the $125M range, then it might be worth the gamble and you're not sacrificing filling other holes to roll the dice on a big bet at 1B. If it's in the $90-100M range, then the answer is no chance. But it's still a big bet on a guy who hasn't been good since 2022. Which veteran bet would you rather make? Hoskins bounces back, Andujar moves to 1B and comfortably rakes, Goldschmidt is willing to leave the Yankees AND has a Santana-esque resurrection, or something else? That feels like the realm we're stuck in with our market and ownership.

Improving the defense will certainly help Matthews and likely bring his ERA down closer to his FIP; YMMV on whether or not the Twins can or will accomplish that internally? Lewis showed in the second half that he's better than average at 3B defensively, so that should help some. Keaschall is a real question mark, but with a decent offseason, a spring training where he's actually playing the field, and a focus at 2B, we will certainly find out a lot more. To me, he looked like a guy who needed reps more than anything else at 2B; he's played relatively little in the field in the past 2 seasons, didn't play the field in spring training, etc. Having not used his arm regularly with the TJ I'm guessing no throws felt routine to him and there were clearly moments where he was thinking about making the throw when the ball clanged off his glove. Hopefully he'll be well-recovered from the last injury to allow him to do defensive work in the off-season and get reps in game situations in spring training. Too soon to give up on him at 2B, and he should have the tools to be at least average. Brooks Lee is definitely the area of biggest concern: he simply may not have the range and arm to be anything other than a below-average SS. He fields what he gets to and makes good decisions out there, but he's slow and doesn't have the plus arm. Who knows what happens with 1B, but if it's Clemens he's a quality defender there, with good range and a solid glove. I think the bigger area is whether changes in pitch mix can help Matthews be more reliable and finish off hitters. Can he really command 6 pitches? Might make a real different if he can drop 1 or 2 from his mix at least for now and focus more on his better offerings. The slider is easily his best pitch right now, but looking at his pitches on Baseball Savant, I have to wonder if the 4-seamer will play up more if he can work on the edges of the zone and get out of the heart of the plate? The plots on the changeup and little used curve suggest he isn't very consistent when they get used. Can he tighten that up or should those get shelved for a while? Lot of talent, hope he can figure it out. He has stretches where you think "this can really be a guy!" and other times where he can't finish guys off and the hits just start flying.

So happy to see Prielipp have a mostly normal season and not get shutdown for long periods. Was really afraid he might be Canterino part II and despite the electric arm not be able to stay on the mound. Feeling much more positive about him, and even if he does end up in the bullpen, I think he'll be a real weapon out there. Impressed with Dasan Hill who had a fine season for such a young guy. He should be fun to watch next season. Still not sure what I think about Klein. He did quite well in Wichita, but he's also 23: he should be able to hold up against AA hitters. Went back to surrendering too many baserunners in AAA, so I don't know where he really stands.

If Houston's floor is Belanger, then he's again one of those guys whose defense is among the absolute best to ever play the game. That's why it's so rare for guys who are all glove, no bat to stick: you have to be not just great with the glove but all-time levels of great. It's why I have trouble seeing that as a floor for Houston: he excellent with the glove, but is he all-time amazing? Mark Belanger: 8-time GG, led the league in dWAR 6 times, had a dWAR over 3 7 times...and finished his career with an OPS+ of 68 and was a league-average hitter exactly once. Andrelton Simmons: 4-time GG, led the league in dWAR 3 times, had a dWAR over 3 3 times and finished with an OPS+ of 87; was a league average or better hitter 3 times. Luis Aparicio: 9-time GG, RoY, led the league in dWAR twice, had 2 seasons of dWAR over 3, and finished with an OPS+ of 82. Was a league average or better hitter exactly once. (But did lead the league in steals 9 times!) Hall of Famer. Ozzie Smith: 13-time GG, led the league in dWAR 6 times, cleared 3 dWAR 5 times, finished his career with an OPS+ of 87. All-time leader in dWAR, had a gazillion steals, First ballot Hall of Famer. You get into rarefied air pretty fast with those elite defensive guys, even with ones whop couldn't hit much (or at all) Mets fans thought Rey Ordonez was going to be one of those guys and while he won 3 GG's, he only deserved maybe 2 (1 for sure) once his defense slipped he was replacement level quickly. If Houston plays defense like a young Ozzie Guillen he'll still make it even as a bad hitter, but that's the kind of standard you have to clear to be a real asset if you can't hit.