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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Yes and no? I think Clemens is valued for his defense, and they'd like to protect Bell by having him DH more. Caratini is interesting, but a lot of what they're saying has to be taken with a grain of salt (aka, ignored as being Bee Ess). They have to keep Jeffers from pouting, they want to puff their new signing, all that. But one of the biggest reasons Caratini is here on a 2 year deal is it means we have a real catcher for 2027 regardless of what happens in 2026. Now, you can trade Jeffers without having to go into desperation mode at catcher. If you don't deal him and he leaves next season, you're not up the creek. Will they find time for him at 1B & DH? sure...but a lot of it will be fill-in for injury, not first choice. I think part of the question on Clemens is whether they see him as the primary backup to Lewis and/or Keaschall, or if they're planning on Kreidler or whomever lands as the backup SS doing more of that?
  2. jmlease1
    Definitely the kind of numbers you like to see for a reliever, and suggests that the issue with his fastball being flat is the sort of thing that impacts more as batters see it more and get a feel for it. In a relief role, that's much harder to do. I think Festa makes a lot of sense to transition to the bullpen; with his shoulder questions and the other depth in the rotation, along with his pitch mix seem to line him up really well. And as a transitioning starter, he'd be able to throw 2 inning stints as needed as he adjusts to the role without any real trouble, giving them more windows to get him experience while they see if he's ready for higher leverage roles. It makes more sense that having him start the year in Saint Paul, IMHO. And there's others that feel ahead of him in the rotation at this point, especially with the shoulder concerns, which can't be ignored. Develop the slider. Add a little velocity to the fastball. Keep crushing it with the change. That could be a fearsome reliever.
  3. jmlease1
    defensively, Clemens is the best 1B we have, unfortunately. He's one of the more logical backups at 3B and 2B, really. But as a LH bat who is garbage against LHP, you are correct: he isn't a great fit. I agree on Raya: he should be moving to the bullpen. He definitely hit a wall as a starter in AAA and has a lot of guys ahead of him on the starting pitching depth chart (presuming the list in the OP for the MLB rotation is correct, Matthews, Abel, Rojas, and Morris are all ahead of Raya at this point). Even if Preilipp goes bullpen as well there's 4 guys in the minors ahead of him. They don't need to wait for him to get called up before sliding him into the bullpen.
  4. jmlease1
    I hope this is right and Outman doesn't get a job on scholarship simply because he's out of options. Maybe the fact that Falvey is gone will increase that likelihood? But I'm still desperately afraid we're going to get stuck with him as the supposed 4th OF regardless of how he performs in spring training and they'll keep chasing value on him even if he sucks at the plate when the season starts like he has the past 2 years. (and with his defense having slipped, he's even less attractive) Twins have historically not been good about dealing with the sunk cost fallacy, and while Outman on or off the roster isn't likely to be determinative of the season (that's going to be much more about whether Wallner & Lewis bounce back, Keaschall is who who hope he is, Buxton stays healthy, etc) not keeping Outman just to avoid losing control over an asset (especially when it ain't much of an asset to begin with) would be a good sign in a change of administration. Is Roden the answer? I don't know, but he's got little left to prove in AAA. I'd much rather find out now (with Jenkins and Rodriguez and Gonzalez all hopefully pushing for a shot by their performance, not just their tools) than keep wasting time on Outman. The bullpen needs work. It just does. While I do think you can (and should) build bullpens on the cheap, using internal resources and converted starters, it will take some time and you need a couple of pillars. I wouldn't object to seeing Festa slide to the 'pen? He could be a weapon there and after the TOS (which still scares me no matter how many times they say "no, it's the good kind!") it might be a better spot for him. The Slim Reaper as an eventual closer? I'm interested. I thought Bradley was out of options? Love to be wrong, but I think he is.
  5. jmlease1
    Wallner and Jeffers are both legit starters. Varland and Sands are quality relievers. Julien finished top 10 in RoY before falling apart. Steer has been starting for the Reds; trading him away is a different issue from the draft. Apparently you've decided to write off Festa. Matthews, Morris, Adams, Culpepper, Jones, MacLeod, NOwlin and Preilipp for the pitching pipeline? (and a reminder: Falvey never said he was going to only draft his way to a pitching pipeline: Ryan, Abel, SWR, Bradley, and Rojas all count) The Twins pitching depth is far better than it was before Falvey got here. Is just is. Falvey hasn't developed enough hitters from his drafts and development and it's a fair reason to let him go (if Jenkins and at least 1 of GG, Emma, Mendez, or Culpepper hit then his record starts looking better) but the idea that he hasn't substantially improved the Twins prospects when it comes to pitching just isn't true. But I get it: you want all-stars. Looking forward to seeing you hold the next front office to precisely the same standard...
  6. jmlease1
    I need data rather than a feeling, though. It's easy to remember a few times when Wallner whiffed on a high heater, but whether he actually has a hole in his swing? Memory from watching doesn't tell you enough; people inevitably weight the most notable ones and draw conclusions that don't necessarily match to the reality over time. "If you want to convince me of something, Mrs. Landingham, show me numbers!" - Jed Bartlet.
  7. jmlease1
    2018 draft had Larnach, Jeffers, and Sands as 3 of their first 4 picks and they developed Funderburk in the late rounds. While not a grand slam, it's hardly a bad draft, especially for a team drafting late in the round. 2019 was a big miss on the first round pick, but Wallner and Steer early, with Varland and Julien late probably make up for it. The fact that they traded Steer, Varland, and Julien is irrelevant to whether the draft was good or not. 2020 this could end up looking like a disaster and might be one of the more fair picks. Sabato is organizational filler, Soularie is gone from the organization, Raya is struggling to make the last step, and Rosario has been exposed to the Rule 5 draft. This draft might end up being a big fat zero unless Raya successfully transitions to the bullpen and COVID or not, it would be a black mark on their draft record. 2021 still undecided, but they did successfully leverage Petty into Sonny Gray, and have had multiple pitchers make MLB (Adams, Festa, Ohl) with guys like MacLeod, Nowlin, and Fedko still in the system. Jury's still out? 2022 way too soon to call this one of the worst moves of the Falvey regime; while Lee has been disappointing, he is already in MLB. Prielipp is looking like he might have been worth the risk, and while Schobel and Lewis look like they may have topped out, there's still plenty of potential in Matthews, Morris, Culpepper, and Jones that it hardly looks like a bust. If you only evaluate drafts based on whether or not they came up with an all-star...then yeah, it hasn't worked out. But they have drafted guys with enough talent to be MLB players and contributors. Doing a "all their drafts are crap!" and pretending that makes it Falvey's 5 worst moves is...silly. Could they have done better? Sure, but find me a team that couldn't. Want to say that striking out on Cavaco & Sabato in consecutive drafts? That's a more than fair statement and a reasonable contender. lumping in all their drafts as being the worst moves? Hard to justify.
  8. jmlease1
    The problem with the Correa deal wasn't necessarily the deal itself, it's the fact that it was premised on ownership maintaining a level of spending that they very quickly undid. Correa's contract (much like Buxton & Lopez's deals) is fine in the context of a $150+M payroll. At $130M it gets much more difficult, and at $110M it's nigh-impossible. Was the Correa deal the problem or was it the terrible ownership? I think I would have the Nelson Cruz signing on the list, as well: it worked out great, filled a need wonderfully, and they were even able to parlay him into Joe Ryan in a later deal. The Mahle deal didn't work out...but the rationale behind it made quite a bit of sense and injuries are injuries. CES has been awful overall, and while Steer has been ok, his tumble down the defensive positions is notable...as has his rapid decline. The Sonny Gray trade certainly should rank highly, IMHO: they got exactly what they needed, received draft pick compensation when he left, and Petty sure doesn't look ready.
  9. jmlease1
    Zoll is a pretty smart guy and quite talented, and I think it was a good idea to split off the business side from the baseball side again...but the Twins have still bungled this again. If you're going to drop your top guy, you do it at the end of the season and before you hire a new manager. Don't let the old boss hire such an important position, even if you're going to promote from within. Regarding Zoll...maybe he's the right fit? Twins have failed to successfully translate enough of their top talent to consistent MLB players in recent years, especially on the position side. Maybe Zoll can fix that, but it's not like he got here yesterday, so is he the solution or was he part of the problem. Time will tell? Hopefully Tom Pohlad hires someone smart, forward-thinking, and creative to run business operations and turn things around there. The Twins have utterly botched that side of the house, even more than the baseball side, over the past 2 decades. They've botched media deals, failed to grow their fan base (which isn't just about the on-field product, sad to say), screwed up the finances...the list is almost endless on the failures on the business side. They've literally got one success on that side of ledge: getting Target Field built (and with a public subsidy). That is simply not good enough. But the Pohlad track record doesn't suggest they're going to bring in a real leader to drive the train there.
  10. jmlease1
    except Santana did recover...for one season. Hit well for Texas in 2019 playing all over the field...and then was gone again. I could see Julien finding his swing again for a run...and then falling off the planet again. But at least Santana could credibly play some different spots defensively.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm bummed that it didn't work out for Julien; he was so good in 2023 and had an excellent MiLB track record at the plate that I really thought he could course-correct and adjust, but it never came around for him. Maybe a new environment will help, but he never found a defensive position he looked comfortable in (he had stretches where he looked fine at 2B, but goodness did he ever get in his own head out in the field) and without that he has to hit to play. (I was also a little baffled that the Twins never unleashed him on the basepaths, but they clearly must have felt that his minor league success at swiping bags was just a function at no one holding anyone on) Can't really object to moving from him and I'd rather have room for a player with some upside. I was a little surprised they picked Ohl to move off the 40-man, especially when they had all these crap utility guys, but they really must not think his stuff is going to play up. We'll see if they're right. Decent move by the Rockies: pick up some distressed assets for little costs and see if you can find something at the MLB level. They certainly have opportunity. Twins weren't going to get anything for either guy, so getting a lottery ticket like Kaminska seems fine.
  12. jmlease1
    Well, this is the question: is Brooks Lee the guy who was a consensus top 8 pick (and many had him top 5) who was also a consensus top 50 prospect in 2023 and 2024 or the guy who has struggled mightily in MLB? This season might tell us a lot about it, He's had some injuries, which have likely sapped him some, but he still played a lot in 2025. Lee never absolutely ruined the league in the minors, but he was also never overwhelmed. You look at his aggregate minor league stats, and this is a guy who always put up an OPS above .800 at basically every level. And while he wasn't good last season, he did improve at the plate from 2024 to 2025. Not enough to be sure, and his defense last season certainly was worse than what we hoped...but he didn't totally flail either. Maybe the best argument for Lee is that he's got some pretty obvious areas for growth, and the biggest one is better command of the strike zone. If he stops chasing and expanding the strike zone it'll almost certainly give him a significant boost. That's probably a better position to be in than "this guy can't handle a MLB fastball"?
  13. jmlease1
    I think they saw Jackson as a viable backup, but only as a backup. Caratini provides cover for 2027 (presuming there is a season) regardless of what happens with Jeffers. Under normal circumstances, I'd be ok with exposing Jackson to waivers and letting him get paid in AAA as strong insurance against a big injury, but this team's self-imposed payroll limits (based on their terrible business practices) makes this abnormal and him more likely for another trade. Right now they're PLANNING on Jeffers being the Opening Day starter, and PROJECTING him to catch 100 games, but it won't take much for Jeffers catching to land closer to 80 again
  14. jmlease1
    If you're just picking through guys on the roster that have already thrown in the Twins bullpen, he's as likely a suspect as anyone. I doubt Adams, Ohl, or Klein have anything locked down.
  15. jmlease1
    I don't mind this move. Hopefully he's still got something left (late career LHP...with the small sample sizes they can really bounce around a bit on their effectiveness year over year) but his veteran status and experience in closing games and filling other relief roles should be of use to the inexperienced twins bullpen as well. He was very good for SF in 2024 and effective for the Reds in 2025 (less so for the Cubs). The K's have dipped a little, but he's still able to get outs when he hits his spots for guys on both sides of the plate. I wouldn't be shocked to see him finishing some games early in the season as the Twins shake out who from their younger pitchers is ready for higher leverage roles. I'd still love for them to get someone with a little more upside, someone who has a little more dominance in them to reinforce the bullpen (probably right-handed), but this fits one of the slots I was hoping they might fill, so no complaints from me about this signing.
  16. jmlease1
    That does seem to be how the Twins front office perceives him. It's very difficult for fans to accept this because of his performance as a Twin (where he was not an acceptable choice in CF, nor in the lineup) and his history with the Dodger over the past 2 seasons. Handing Outman a job on scholarship may not doom the season or anything, but it's hard to see it as anything other than an ego-driven decision to justify the acquisition in the first place (which is silly, since it was always marginal, lottery-ticket kind of move) or an irrational fear of "losing the asset for nothing" (also silly since Outman has functionally no value at present). I'm sort of ok if Outman is really just getting a spring training invite to see if he's turned some things around, figures something out with the new coaching staff, etc and has to earn a spot in a competition with others, with an understanding that his lack of options does guarantee him anything. But that's not how it appears, and the usual silence from the front office and coaching staff about this kind of stuff leaves us little option but to speculate that they intend Outman to be the 4th OF.
  17. jmlease1
    Maybe, but the Brewers fans in my life aren't happy with this trade. (and the starting pitcher market is never closed, right?)
  18. jmlease1
    why do you keep posting this ridiculous complaint on every thread?
  19. jmlease1
    I don't particularly care that much about the ranking within the selections, but As wonderful as Jack Morris' 1 season was with the Twins, it was 1 season and he wasn't even the best pitcher on the team during the regular season. (Thanks, Kevin Tapani for having a career year in 1991!) I'd pick Viola (also a WS winner and WS MVP, and deserved his Cy in '88 and was just as good in '87). If you're counting the Senators years, then it's Camilo Pascual...but I can get only going with Twins seasons. I'll take Frank's extra seasons and sustained greatness (he was awesome for the Twins in '89 before getting dealt) over 1 game of magic. Johan, Kitty, and Bert are easy picks, and I'm down with Radke getting the call. Big Bad Brad was so consistent, he always gave you a chance. He had 1 bad season his whole career (and still had an ERA+ of 95). Even with his shoulder falling off in his final season at 33 he put up an ERA+ of 104 and gave the team 28 starts. (those 2006 Twins are the ultimate "what if?" team to me; a healthy Liriano and Terry Ryan doing something, anything to improve the lineup...) I think people forget just how good Radke was because it was such a high-scoring environment and he played on some rotten teams...but Radke is a twins legend to me.
  20. jmlease1
    all of these acquisitions of terrible infielders are pretty awful. But I don't mind the twins being patient with the market and making moves late to try and get good value from the free agent marketplace, especially since the Cheap Bad at Baseball Business Pohlads have nerfed the payroll. It's fine so long as they're not dogmatic about it. You'd hope they would still also look for opportunities to strike before the markets get set as well? I mean, Terry Ryan used to get all his business done by Christmas, as if finishing up your free agency period early got you some extra credit somewhere, and also used to apparently take some pride in coming in under his budget, so let's not pretend all was well previously. The issue isn't that the Twins are late, it's that they've been adding crappy middle infielders who all look like dreadful hitters without being elite defenders, haven't touched the bullpen at all, and are carrying too many LH outfielders who aren't good defensively (and in some cases aren't good at...hitting.) I hope it comes together, but if Outman is the 4th OF, Larnach is the DH, we've added no relievers, and the backup SS is pulled from one of these clowns, it will not be a successful offseason, despite solid moves for Bell and Caratini.
  21. jmlease1
    #15 (Outman) might not be the most pressing or impactful, but it's the one that drives me the craziest. It's the one that feels like the test case for whether the Front Office can move on or be trapped by the sunk cost fallacy. I didn't like the trade when it happened, because Brock Stewart was worth more with the Twins than they ever going to get for him in a deal, but at the end of the day taking a flier on Outman making a bounce back last season wasn't crazy. But he was awful with the Twins and showed absolutely no real improvement as a MLB player. He didn't hit (the fact that he hit slightly better for Twins than the Dodgers shows how unplayable he was in LA) and his defense looked dreadful. Why exactly should we expect him to improve at 29 after 2 lost seasons? Everything about him is screaming "Quad A player who had a fluke MLB season before the league figured him out" and with his defense imploding, what value does he add? We have plenty of LH OF bats that need playing time/opportunity. Guys with better upside. Guys who can play a more legit CF. If Outman makes the roster, it would be a sign to me that the front office prioritizes "being right" over reality, would rather chase value than cut their losses, and a signpost that there's something fundamentally flawed in their player evaluation if they keep giving Outman chances. I could be wrong. Outman might suddenly put it together again. But the odds are strongly against it. And if the Twins place a bet on Outman as part of how they're going to improve the offense and defense for this team, it looks like a terribly stupid bet based more in arrogance than reality. And if they can't get the easy ones right, why should anyone feel confident they can get the big ones right?
  22. jmlease1
    This is an interesting possibility and would be a fine way of ensuring you have sufficient insurance in the upper minors to cover a significant injury to either Jeffers or Caratini (or have basic competence ensured if there's another sell-off at the deadline). Would he actually pass through? Not sure, but the risk seems appropriate. The Twins roster still has some issues that need addressing: not happy with the backup SS options (nor the dumpster diving claims they've made), the OF doesn't make sense (I'm sorry, if Outman gets a job on scholarship I'm going to be furious), and the bullpen needs reinforcements not just internal options. But I like the bolstering of catcher, so long as it doesn't shut off improvement for every other aspect of the squad.
  23. jmlease1
    As it stands, I like adding Caratini to the squad. He can hit a bit, which is hard to find at catcher, and looks like a good partner for Jeffers to at least somewhat split the job. There's a little positional flexibility in that he can cover some 1B if needed and having that option in a pinch is nice, though I'd prefer he not really be DHing. Is it the best use of the limited resources available to the Twins due to their self-imposed budgetary limitations from the Cheap Pohlads? I dunno, but it at least seems reasonable and should raise the floor. I'm concerned that they're only going to dumpster dive for bullpen support, and while I do believe we have young pitchers that make sense to slide into the bullpen and could certainly have early success...it's asking a lot. In a vacuum, I like this signing. In the context of the roster and the payroll, I have concerns.
  24. jmlease1
    Allison is a pretty fair pick. I just love Mack and don't hold the baseball strike/lockout/work stoppage against him; felt like he had a couple more big years in him as a Twin, but can't blame him for going overseas to get paid.
  25. jmlease1
    How many Twins from the previous regime got serious consideration? The more history you pile up and the more Hall of Famers you put in from your franchise, the higher the bar is for every position and every generation after. Think about how good you actually have to be to displace Rod freakin' Carew! And we're only talking about 9 positions here, and catcher, 1B, 2B, CF, and RF are manned by hall of famers. Maybe Kaelen Culpepper displaces Roy Smalley some day. Or Walker Jenkins grabs Shane Mack's slot. But this is going to be hard for anyone new. If it was easy, we'd have a terrible history with no titles.
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