TheLeviathan

I like how your prices all seemed very cognizant of being fair and not homerish. I'd have liked to see you lay out the roster after all your moves along with the salary bottom line. My biggest plus there was the Arraez trade idea (does STL need a 2B?), but I'm worried about Chris Taylor as an every day SS.

Clearly you are not well-versed with Ace Ian Anderson the One True Pitching God. At least I assume that's what he is because the rest of the NL Champion Braves certainly aren't pitching like aces. And the Astros? Yeah...go take a gander at all the aces they rode to the World Series! Playoffs are a small sample. Teams with depth and luck win in the postseason. There is no magic formula and certainly not one where aces win championships.

I wasn't necessarily speaking for me. There are a lot of fans that are upset with starters who can't/don't pitch many innings. Robbie Ray was doing that before it was cool. (Driving up 100+ pitch counts in 4 innings. It was a common issue in his time with AZ) I only brought it up because people tend to look at "aces" as top end guys who are workhorses and Ray has a suspect history on that front. If the Twins invested in him I'd be fine with that.

The 2021 season had Buxton and the guys on the mound absolutely mattered. Partly because having Byron Buxton doesn't really mean you actually get all that much Buxton, but one baseball player cannot singlehandedly will a team to competence. Just ask Mike Trout.

While true, the value of being cost controlled is still attached to the value you bring as a player as well. While I think Max Kepler is a fine player, and perhaps a guy I'd rather bet on to rebound from last year, I'm not sure his production makes the ability to control his costs all that attractive. I could be totally wrong, I just don't see that the direction Oakland would go if they dealt Manaea.

Yes, but it was also a career high by about 20 innings for him. I'm not sure that's what we would expect going forward. Historically he's about a 5 inning guy.

We're back to using the word "ace" very loosely I see. If people don't like their starters being pulled after 5 they're going to hate Robbie Ray. We need good, consistent pitchers. Who cares how you slot them.

No, in favor of us. A SP has more value than a corner OF all things being equal. I don't see any reason why the A's would take that deal when they can add OF for less than that cost.

I like the ideas, but there are two I find unlikely: SP Jon Gray is going to get 3 years and 45M. maybe more. I can't imagine Kepler is going to get Maenea. That seems really imbalanced.

I think the salaries are a tad light. But then I am of the opinion the team will push up the budget this offseason. Not putting any money down in Vegas on that though.

I think Knebel is in the 3 year 8-10M AAV range. He has a track record and his late season work indicate a worthy investment. But I'd pay him that and the Twins certainly can.

Nice analysis in your post. The alternative is you bring in short-term contracts and let injuries and the depth rotations require let you sort those things out over time. There is no reason to believe right now that Ober is written in stone. Ryan either. They should get opportunities next year from the get-go, but the other guys will need to earn theirs in the inevitable stretches where they will be there to be had.

On each point: 2) I think the conversation with Miami starts with feeling out who they like and who they are prepared to offer. They clearly want catching and we have it. They clearly have pitching and we want it. So the framework is there, how it hashes out from there is pretty hard to predict. Sixto's injury is worrisome, but what he showed when he first came up was brilliant. It's a risky move to be sure. 4) Maybe he does. If I'm the Dodgers I could see them keeping Turner and Taylor and rolling with those two instead. But yes, the possibility definitely exists that he is retained by LAD. I like Story and then Simien in that order. I like Correa, of course, but this entire plan is based on going under where the heavy bidding starts and sniping guys who won't be number 1 on all the shopping lists. I see Stroman the same way even though I really like him. 6) My brain has this weird thing about Austin Martin. Every time I want to say something about him my brain says "His name isn't spelled how you think!" and then I just make some stupid thing up and confuse myself and others, clearly. I meant the kid we got for Berrios. I think he's a future LFer for this team and that is the dude I want there down the stretch.

Maybe. Projections are difficult but but what you're proposing is not a common contract given out anymore. I think people should really look back over the last 5 years of free agents. Seager isn't Machado or Harper or Cheatin' Gerrit Cole. He's a tier lower and my contract reflects that tier.

Agree with Nick....bench coach? Absolutely. DH? No.

Well said. His skill set is rare these days. Keeping him around will help this team but it's past time to give him a defensive home to get comfy in.

I think it's a reasonable price range relative to past seasons. A bump for sure.

I appreciate the effort and math that went into this. I personally would probably shave another 10% off of every tier and the base and would feel more comfortable. I've always thought the $/WAR figures were a tad silly and even with your excellent work recalibrating them I still think it start too high. Great read!

I wouldn't fault anyone for their desire to spend more on pitching. I do like Thor as well but I could see that getting dicey. My idea is to float in under the top tier and snipe guys early so you aren't in bidding wars. And, personally speaking, I'd rather put 27M into an every day player. For 42M I have Seager and Gray, but the alternative of Rodon and (insert 10M SS here) doesn't sound nearly as good to me. Especially since I have some confidence a few of these young guys are going to stick. If I thought the Twins could get Alcantera with Garver, I'd be all over that. I think Sixto Sanchez is a swing for the fences kind of addition.

All fair. If Seager stays I go after Story next. The Twins have the money to pull this off. I think Arraez and Kepler have such low trade value relative to their contracts that trading them would be poor asset management.

I do agree that Sanchez has real upside, but catching is a market with a real scarcity and Florida has openly stated their interest in improving there. I can see the argument that there would need to be more with Garver, but I disagree it would be that imbalanced.

Yeah, but with some regular time at a regular position that might improve as well. You'll take that from a guy who can be a 113+ OPS player.

Full transparency: This is not a team intending to compete in 2022. This team is loading up for 2023. Trades and Extensions: Sign Byron Buxton to a 7 year, 119M contract with incentives Trade with Florida Marlins - Mitch Garver for SP Sixto Sanchez Trade with New York Mets - Josh Donaldson (plus 14M spread over two years) for RP Jose Butto Let Colome walk. Release Austidillo, Refsnyder, Minaya, and Cave. Free Agency: Sign Corey Seager a 5 year 27M contract to play shortstop Sign Michael Pineda back to a 2 year 24M contract with incentives Sign Jon Gray to a 3 year 45M contract Sign Sandy Leon to a 1 year, 2M contract Sign Leury Garcia to a 1 year 5M contract Sign Corey Knebel to a 3 year 24M contract Sign Ehire Adrianza to a 2 year, 3M contract Lineup/Defense C - Jeffers 500k 1B - Kiriloff 500k 2B - Polanco 5.5M SS - Seager 27M 3B - Arraez 2M LF - Rooker 500k CF - Buxton 17M RF - Kepler 6.75M DH - Sano 9.25M Bench - Gordon 500k Bench - Sandy Leon 2M Bench - Leury Garcia 5M Bench - Garlick or Larnach 500k Bench - Adrianza 1.5M Regular Lineup - Arraez-Buxton-Seager-Polanco-Kiriloff-Sano-Kepler-Rooker-Jeffers Rotation/Bullpen SP - Gray 15M SP - Ryan 500k SP - Ober 500k SP - Pineda 12M SP - Sixto Sanchez 500k CL - Rogers 6.7M BP - Alcala 500k BP - Duffey 3.7M BP - Theilbar 1.2M BP - Knebel 8M BP - Dobnak 800k BP - Gant 3.7 Total Salary: 138.6M (Including the 7M deferred) Rotation Depth: Gant, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Balazovic, Winder, Duran, SWR Bullpen Depth: Butto, Thorpe, Moran, Stashak, Strotman? Other assorted AA and AAA guys OF Depth: Larnach needs to hit himself into a job. Marten should be a guy looking to get the job in LF. As soon as mid-summer. Almost the entire bench, plus Kiriloff and Arraez can also play in the OF. IF Depth - Adrianza is a jack of all trades, Gordon as well. Being a lefty and a switch hitter gives some options for lineups. Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda should be in this conversation mid-summer as well. Catching depth: Leon exists to give Ben Rotrevedt time to be the long-term backup. The idea here is that 2022 is a transition year. So, let Rooker/Larnach and Jeffers and Arraez play. Martin is going to take 2B or LF eventually. Lewis and Miranda are going to be up to take over other positions eventually. The team is strong up the middle, depth is better, and the team is primed for a 2023 coming out party. Ditto the rotation - Gallen, Sanchez, Ryan, Ober, and the fleet of young arms gives this team options and upside. Bullpen is stabilized. By September 1 I’d love to see this group: Seager-Buxton-Polanco-Kiriloff--Marten-Larnach-Miranda-Kepler-Jeffers with a rotation of Gray-Ryan-Ober-Sanchez-Duran/Balazovic That group is an upgrade here or there in 2023 from being a real force if we develop our talented youngsters.

The answer is clearly yes. However, that doesn't mean he should be shopped. Polanco is an extremely valuable player and one the team can keep around for some time at a reasonable price.

The crux. Josh Donaldson has a bad history of missing time due to injury. His numbers are trending down and he is aging. He makes a lot of money. Therefore it is "unrealistic in the real world" to think his value will go anywhere but down as his career progresses. Therefore anyone suggesting he would have more value at the deadline is plainly wrong. /End unfair framing That's how we play this game right? Of course, all of those things are true. In fact, they are more factual than any of your assertions. Yet characterizing your argument as "unrealistic in the real world" would be a terribly unfair framing. So I haven't done it. Yet you repeatedly do this. Merely having facts does not lead to a certain conclusion. It is the basis for a justified conclusion, not a certainty. (And I have several times over acknowledged you have a justified belief. Alas the reverse is not true) It is still very much possible JD could be more valuable at the deadline. At no point, despite an array of facts, have I questioned the validity or realisticness of your stance. Only stated my disagreement. By contrast, you have questioned the validity of my stance on the flawed logic I showed above. It's a BS tactic. Is there a chance Donaldson will not be tradeable until an inopportune time in the offseason? Yes. However, over the last few years player signing dates have been pushed further and further back so how likely that is highly debatable. It's definitely not an absolute or a fact like the ones I stated above. Could there be a limited market for Donaldson? Yes. Is it an absolute, unrealistic fact that is true? Quite obviously no, that's speculation. We disagree about probabilities, which is fine. We shouldn't be stating the other's position as absurd or unrealistic in absolutes. It's unfair framing, perhaps you can join me finally in ending that.