TheLeviathan

No Maeda makes it a much more difficult proposition. It's ok that the team has to retool though, that's the life of a mid-market in baseball. Blame all the folks who prioritize short-term profits over the good of the game.

Every appearance with Barreiro confirms this. Can also confirm he has openly said he doesn't watch the Twins.

This is a really good summation and argument for the gamble.

I was speaking about the dozens here who insist on categorizing Buxton as merely unlucky rather than having a an established history of problems.

The guys who were starting aren't the Plan Bs? Or is there some particular season you're referencing?

I totally understand the David Ortizian Dread. However, framing his injuries as "unlucky" is only honest if you choose to completely ignore the pre-2021 past. And....well....I don't find that to be a terribly fair way to frame things. "Conveniently selective" comes to mind. You can be for the gamble without selectively re-writing history. This guy's prime, 25 year old freaky amazing athleticism has not saved him from being utterly brittle. That is part of the equation. It's 95% negative for the idea of an extension. But I'll bet on the combo of that 5% discount in cost and the Hail Mary it might all come together. As @gunnarthorsaid....they can afford to roll those dice. But let's not pretend that we're not betting on a longshot here.

This is the mass TD delusion I'm referring to. It's like this board needs a damn intervention. I would prefer not to repost Van's list but I feel like it's necessary: 2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP 2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP 2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP 2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP 2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP 2021: Hip injury/broken wrist You know what's not a good predictor of health? See above. Stop arguing that his most recent injury, while unlucky, is reflective of his situation. I'd feel BETTER if he had a bunch of consistent injuries to the same part of his body or unlucky breaks. But he doesn't. He's basically managed every injury known to man. He's amassed roughly 3 seasons of PA in 7 SEASONS. The argument that "we can't predict the future" is misleading because....of course we can't. What we use to predict is the past and play the odds. The past has given us clear information: this guy cannot be counted on to be healthy with any reasonable certainty. If we get lucky and he magically stops this 7 year run of consistent problems? Great. But for the love of all that's good in the world....can we stop sticking our heads in the sand? Or spinning this history as "unlucky". In his physical prime he's been out 60% of his career. You know what IS predictive? Age doesn't help that. As I said.....gamble away, but let's stop the spin-jobs. I want to resign him, but I'm going in eyes wide open: he is a massive injury risk and almost certain to miss significant time during that extension.

His impact when on the field is unquestionably important. I do wonder if the Twins' three decade long policy of not having a 4th outfielder who can play CF might be partly to blame too. In all seriousness....when was the last time we had a CF plan B? Even pre-Buck?

Spoken like a true Minnesota sports fan.

540 PAs in 3 seasons. That about says it all. Or I can let @Vanimal46do the legwork here: 2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP 2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP 2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP 2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP 2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP 2021: Hip injury/broken wrist I like how we keep spinning it as a positive that we can afford a guy with this laundry list of missed games. For the record, I'd offer him an incentivized deal because I'm a gambler, but my god is it hard around here to pierce the delusion that he's just "unlucky" or that magically 30+ year old human bodies get super tough and injury resistant. You'd think the dude's mutant powers suddenly kick in or something from the way people talk around here. All for the gamble, but we could do with less spin. It's dizzying.

Why is there no poll yet on how his next injury happens? That's the only thing that matters: the guy staying on the field until the end of the baseball season. Another injury, even an unlucky one, makes the entire situation even harder to work with.

Is Joe Ryan's delivery deceptive to lefties? A lot of those strike three swings/takes look like pitches major leaguers would hit, but the guys at the plate seemed really fooled. Anyone a Joe Ryan expert yet?

By statistical measure, and this falls in line with historical trends for shortstops his age, he's not the defender he was. The stats being used are wrc+ or OPS+ because they capture a fuller picture of the hitter's performance and then compare it to other shortstops/players around the league. Meaning the numbers we're posting capture the more complete story (Simmons is a bad hitter this year) and only fairly compare him to his peers at SS. (Which, again, compared to other shortstops....he's still a bad hitter) These are not "fantasy" stats or "bookie" stats. They are mathematical formulas that more accurately capture player performance. By every statistical measure we have, Andrelton Simmons is a bad baseball player. Nick Gordon might be too, but if he's not it helps the 2022 Twins. Simmons has no present and no future in helping the Twins.

There isn't a single Hall of Famer anywhere near that bad that has played professional baseball . Literally no one.

I fully admit, I'm not a fan of 60 OPS+ players in my favorite team's lineup. I'm a crazy person, clearly.

How can I argue with a position that cherry pick one measure to make their point with massive amounts of evidence to the contrary? Stone cold logic there sir.

Only twice in his career has his OPS been above average. And only barely both times. He has been demonstrably below average with the bat his entire career. He's going to 32. He isn't a hitting coach from being an asset. He's more likely an even worse liability than he already is as age saps his defensive abilities.

So our plan, from someone who keeps harp on winning as the most important, is to give a 32 year old, who has never been a good hitter, a hitting coach and he'll.....magically not suck anymore? Good lord.

FFS.

If Lewis is ready and our best available shortstop, then we can move Seager or Story or whomever to 3B and our infield defense is all the better.

This team seems inclined to shell out for hitters and has done so with Donaldson. In general, it's the safer investment of money than in a pitcher. So, with that in mind - go hard after Seager. He could be a cornerstone for close to a decade and you won't regret the money you paid out. He's 27, he can hit, he can field, a deal that's 8 years/200M is probably what it'll take and this team can afford that. Plus, he plays and helps out every pitcher who is put out there every day.

Well....you got one part of this right, but I got that feeling at the end of your post. I get that you think what you posted was well reasoned, but it was entirely composed of specious arguments. I suspect you might already be aware of that, if not you've consumed the misinformation intoxicant like a champ.

Quick thoughts: *It's not fair to dismiss the turnaround they pulled off with this club two years ago. What they did remaking that team from a pretty uneasy future to instant success is a feather in their cap. *It's also not fair to overlook just how badly they mangled the moves on the pitching side coming into this year. Every single choice they made flopped. *It's also worth noting, excuse or not, that the pandemic hit this team's gameplan pretty hard. I'm sure it hurt all the teams, but it definitely hurt the Twins on the pitching side significantly. That should be part of the evaluation here too. *2022 had a poor path to contention since about May 1st and got substantially worse as every major pitching prospect went down for lengthy time periods and stunted their development. Trades or not, let's not pretend one dude somehow is the magic elixir between 2022 Twins as champs or not, that's being naive. This team was always going to need to do significant retooling to their pitching to fix it for next year. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Yeah. We just went from 20 to 1 to 25 to 1 or some rough equivalent. Some of you are spinning the Berrios trade as giving away Babe Ruth or breaking up the '27 Yankees all in one trade. *I need to see where we are in August of 2022, at that point I'd feel better about evaluating them. I'd hate to cut ties as their moves show fruit and I think that's a fair timeline to harvest.

Well, that generally goes without saying.

I'm not sure I agree with this. I think if we're going to comp Gordon and Baddoo, it seems more likely that Gordon IS Baddoo than that he causes someone else to be. Nick Gordon was frequently in the top 100 prospects or close to it throughout his development. High draft pick with pedigree. Was moderately successful in 2019 and then pandemic nonsense. If there is anybody worth rolling the dice on it's him. Especially when we are regularly fielding guys with significantly less upside right now and likely going forward.