TheLeviathan

I would argue the point is less that the offseason can't win you games as much as you might want to re-examine why you thought that list was an offseason winner.

Is it legal for both your middle infielders to contribute offensively?

Certainly one offseason isn't enough to make the rotation great, but much of the way the White Sox built their rotation can be matched by the Twins. Lynn was a trade. Kuechel was a mid-level pitching deal in FA. Giolito and Cease were prospects acquisitions. Rodon was there for the taking by anyone. The team will need to let their young starters get seasoned next year, but in 2023 they can absolutely be on the path the White Sox took. Just spend this offseason acquiring a Kuechel-like guy and look for a trade opportunity. Then trust your young arms.

Sure, but only because we drop 25M AAV on a shortstop.

I'm not sure I would classify this plan as "good". It's likely far less of a disaster as last year with some upside, but "good" seems highly unlikely. I would like to see Ryan, Ober, Dobnak start the year but there is a good chance they may need seasoning. Or stretching out. To supplement that I'd sign one Happ-like veteran as a filler. Maybe that's Pineda if he comes back reasonably, but I don't think he'll be worth it. Then I'd sign Jon Gray to a five year 70M deal. And I'd trade what we have to for Zac Gallen as a buy-low option. I hate speculating what that might be, but I'd pay it. Gallen-Gray-Ryan-Ober-Dobnak/Pineda/Warmbody Holding a Place for a Young Guy has potential to be good. Still probably not a good chance of it though.

It's all hypothetical, but in the pure hindsight article the best we could do is 72 wins which, yes, is in the WC, but that's best case scenario. I think that assuming not-league worst, but averagish, is more like where Cleveland sits. Maybe you can argue that's WC contention. I don't think I would. Too many injuries and things went wrong this year. I think that the root of those problems may be closer to 2 years old rather than 1.

I can get behind that. Though I'm not sure even with good moves this team was going to be in a better position with Buxton hurt most of the year and just too many things going wrong. I mean, you can't bat 1.000, so even if half the moves they made were better where does that land us? To me, still in a reset/retool position, but maybe I'm just being pessimistic. I definitely agree it seemed to come faster than I would've thought a year or two ago.

Did the Twins organization send out a press release with a headline like "Twins Declare Hard Work for Suckers and Old Fogeys. Team will Play the Game the Wrong Way, with Calculators in their Pocket Protectors" If no, then I guess Frank really kicked the stuffing out of that strawman. Even got you to be his sidekick on that silly fallacy.

Except he then retweeted his wife saying this (shortly after retweeting yet another anti-tech/analytics piece about robot umpires): Leadership begets Leadership... what is the organizational mantra? The Twins of the 80's & 90's were built upon fundamentals, team chemistry, players arrived early and left late because they loved being there. Analytics won't replace hard work & a big heart... ask Kirby Puckett! Ripping analytics was a clear implication and subtext to his post. As if analytics is opposed to fundamentals. It's implying the team doesn't care about clubhouse culture and attitude....despite being the FO and manager who has prioritized that more than any in my lifetime. Your tortured analogy only works if you are complaining about airplanes because they serve french fries. At which point, yes, the two opinions are tied together and I can examine your reasons on both and how you wed them together. He can have those opinions, but then he can be criticized for them as well. Pretending they don't exist or weren't the point is silly.

Both. Things went south and got compounded with poor moves.

I agree with the criticisms to a degree. Want to rip them that everything they did for this team this year was a total failure? Hell yeah. And they were over confident they could just fix anyone. But impugning analytics generally? At that point you're off the rails.

No Maeda makes it a much more difficult proposition. It's ok that the team has to retool though, that's the life of a mid-market in baseball. Blame all the folks who prioritize short-term profits over the good of the game.

Every appearance with Barreiro confirms this. Can also confirm he has openly said he doesn't watch the Twins.

This is a really good summation and argument for the gamble.

I was speaking about the dozens here who insist on categorizing Buxton as merely unlucky rather than having a an established history of problems.

The guys who were starting aren't the Plan Bs? Or is there some particular season you're referencing?

I totally understand the David Ortizian Dread. However, framing his injuries as "unlucky" is only honest if you choose to completely ignore the pre-2021 past. And....well....I don't find that to be a terribly fair way to frame things. "Conveniently selective" comes to mind. You can be for the gamble without selectively re-writing history. This guy's prime, 25 year old freaky amazing athleticism has not saved him from being utterly brittle. That is part of the equation. It's 95% negative for the idea of an extension. But I'll bet on the combo of that 5% discount in cost and the Hail Mary it might all come together. As @gunnarthorsaid....they can afford to roll those dice. But let's not pretend that we're not betting on a longshot here.

This is the mass TD delusion I'm referring to. It's like this board needs a damn intervention. I would prefer not to repost Van's list but I feel like it's necessary: 2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP 2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP 2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP 2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP 2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP 2021: Hip injury/broken wrist You know what's not a good predictor of health? See above. Stop arguing that his most recent injury, while unlucky, is reflective of his situation. I'd feel BETTER if he had a bunch of consistent injuries to the same part of his body or unlucky breaks. But he doesn't. He's basically managed every injury known to man. He's amassed roughly 3 seasons of PA in 7 SEASONS. The argument that "we can't predict the future" is misleading because....of course we can't. What we use to predict is the past and play the odds. The past has given us clear information: this guy cannot be counted on to be healthy with any reasonable certainty. If we get lucky and he magically stops this 7 year run of consistent problems? Great. But for the love of all that's good in the world....can we stop sticking our heads in the sand? Or spinning this history as "unlucky". In his physical prime he's been out 60% of his career. You know what IS predictive? Age doesn't help that. As I said.....gamble away, but let's stop the spin-jobs. I want to resign him, but I'm going in eyes wide open: he is a massive injury risk and almost certain to miss significant time during that extension.

His impact when on the field is unquestionably important. I do wonder if the Twins' three decade long policy of not having a 4th outfielder who can play CF might be partly to blame too. In all seriousness....when was the last time we had a CF plan B? Even pre-Buck?

Spoken like a true Minnesota sports fan.

540 PAs in 3 seasons. That about says it all. Or I can let @Vanimal46do the legwork here: 2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP 2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP 2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP 2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP 2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP 2021: Hip injury/broken wrist I like how we keep spinning it as a positive that we can afford a guy with this laundry list of missed games. For the record, I'd offer him an incentivized deal because I'm a gambler, but my god is it hard around here to pierce the delusion that he's just "unlucky" or that magically 30+ year old human bodies get super tough and injury resistant. You'd think the dude's mutant powers suddenly kick in or something from the way people talk around here. All for the gamble, but we could do with less spin. It's dizzying.

Why is there no poll yet on how his next injury happens? That's the only thing that matters: the guy staying on the field until the end of the baseball season. Another injury, even an unlucky one, makes the entire situation even harder to work with.

Is Joe Ryan's delivery deceptive to lefties? A lot of those strike three swings/takes look like pitches major leaguers would hit, but the guys at the plate seemed really fooled. Anyone a Joe Ryan expert yet?

By statistical measure, and this falls in line with historical trends for shortstops his age, he's not the defender he was. The stats being used are wrc+ or OPS+ because they capture a fuller picture of the hitter's performance and then compare it to other shortstops/players around the league. Meaning the numbers we're posting capture the more complete story (Simmons is a bad hitter this year) and only fairly compare him to his peers at SS. (Which, again, compared to other shortstops....he's still a bad hitter) These are not "fantasy" stats or "bookie" stats. They are mathematical formulas that more accurately capture player performance. By every statistical measure we have, Andrelton Simmons is a bad baseball player. Nick Gordon might be too, but if he's not it helps the 2022 Twins. Simmons has no present and no future in helping the Twins.

There isn't a single Hall of Famer anywhere near that bad that has played professional baseball . Literally no one.