Thrylos

Not quite. LaMarre is replacement level Morrison has a career 5.6 fWAR in 864 games before this season. This is about 1 fWAR per 150 games, or, in other words, one win above replacement, which is not superstar level, but it is not replacement level....

Players do tend to hit better at home. At some point that factor has to be deducted from the alleged "Coors Field Effect". FWIW the Coors Field park factor is 115 (TF is 103 btw). So take 15% off his home slash line (actually only 15% of the hitting for the OBP because a walk is a walk) and becomes a park neutral .342/.407/.657 that is still pretty monstrous. He has been successful at Coors field and that's where he is playing and paid to play You got to compare his contract to those of the other outffielders and not of second basemen. His $AAV is below Trout, Cespedes, Heyward, Stanton, JD Martinez, Justin Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury contracts. And only Cano's as far as second basemen go. For a good reason: Every failed with the glove SS (just like the current Twins' second baseman) can play second base and not many can play centerfield. Pedroia is making about $15M AAV, Murphy $12 and Kinzler was at $11M last season. And that was before the prices dropped. Those numbers are the absolute max that Dozier will be looking at for about 3 years or so. An aging CF can move to a corner position or first base if he cannot play his position. A short aging 2B can only move to DH if he cannot play his... Apples with apples.

Not.Even.Close. If Dozier ever hits .331/.399/.601 like Blackmon did last season, then he might have a case. Otherwise he better keep continuing the whining regarding rookies bunting against the shift...

The AAA starter is TBD (same as the AA), but I'd love to see the Twins have a hard time making a decision, if, let's say, Romero opens the season with a no hitter while Hughes is Hughes and cannot get high A bats out...

One does not have to bunt against the shift. Getting a hit the opposite way, will work better for his team than a bunt. And, unlike bunts, not too many teams are practicing hitting the opposite way. It will take pulling the trigger a bit later than usual. Just some food for thought.

I second that opinion on Ben Rodriguez based on what I saw this Spring. Big guy who plays much smaller as fast as speed and plate coverage goes. He will hit with power, he does have the frame, but seems like he has the ability to avoid bad swings, which goes very far. There is no way he is a catcher at 6'6" and his glove and footwork have a bit to go at first base, esp going after lower balls, but I think that it is a matter of reps. Really impressive for a 38th round pick.

Other than Sunday the 8th that the forecast calls for 70% chance of 3-5 inches of snow, there does not look like much precipitation during game times. Also, the Seattle and Twins have no games on Friday and they might want to move that Sunday game then or play a scheduled doubleheader on Saturday. They'll figure it out.

The level of competition in AAA and AA is pretty similar, with the difference that the AA has some younger organizational players who will never make it to the bigs because they have certain flaws, while the AAA has older players who were not good enough to stay in the bigs when they made it because they have certain flaws. Both leagues have prospects also. It really does not matter at that level and the Twins (and any other team) can promote someone from either AAA or AA the same... The only difference is few extra $ in players pockets in AAA, which in the case of Gordon and Gonsalves who both received decent bonuses does not matter that much...

Eyeballing those, looks like about 9 K/9 from the pen this season. Not bad. If it happens.

Glad he is managing Detroit...

Nope. I am not. I am doubting that S and BS (and W and L) matter as indicators of performance. If Rodney did not induce that double play with the Twins' 5-men infield, Hildenberger and not him would had "lost" the game. FWIW Glen Perkins had a career 81.7% save conversion with the Twins. Much worse than Rodney had last season and there are plenty of Twins' fans who loved Perkins as a closer.

lemme see: are you trying to say that a deviation of 0.034 (or 3.4%) is significant when n=55?

Dariel Crespo (because there is a Daniel, his brother who used to be in the Yankees organization for a moon) Chris Heisey was released as well, technically a minor leaguer, albeit not really

J.T. Realmoto's bone bruise on his back, which landed him on the DL, will stop you from making that trade; at least until you figure that he is back and healthy.

Two of the things that have to be mentioned about this game (and are positive) are: The Twins' ability to come back from a situation that Baltimore's win probability was 96.3% at some point, instead of going belly up. Molitor's substitutions when the Twins where hitting (LaMarre PR for Morrison & Grossman PH for Buxton) were essential for this, as was his move to play with 5 infielders to get to that inning ending double play at the 10th. It seems that relay of interesting information and correct use of that information is happening. What is important is for the Twins to win series. They have 2 more games and can win the series at Baltimore.

Déjà vu all over again.

90-72 Win the AL Central Offensive player: Miguel Sano Most home runs: Miguel Sano Starting pitcher: Jose Berrios Relief Pitcher: Addison Reed Twins rookie: Gabriel Moya

With Stassi and Vargas at 1B in Rochester, Rooker might skip that stop...

This is a non-story, other than the hurt Burt's ego. It did not go away. Burt's name went away. It is relaunched as "the winner's circle" and will expand to involve TV viewers as well... Here

MiLB.com has published their annual Twins' prospects primer.

Logan Morrison's contract is not an one year contract... The Twins have an option for 2019 as well. Other than Lynn, potentially, who would have given a long term contract to the other 2?

Here is the Rochester roster from their PR department (I can see a couple of incorrect things btw) :

MLB.com just published a list of the prospects who are most likely to contribute for each team this season. Here is the AL Central's list; cannot say I disagree with their Twins' pick.

Good stuff. Re: Rosario and zone judgement. O-swinging% is just one indicator of zone judgement and really need to look at additional indicators, as well as progression, esp. for players who have not yet reached their primes. His O-swinging% has dropped from 45.6% to 41.7 to 37.6 while his O-contact% at those pitches has increased from 63.5% to 65.5 to 72.0. Also his K% has dropped from 24.9% and 25.7% to 18% while his BB% has increased from 3.2% and 3.4% to 5.9% In other words, swinging outside the zone is not a cardinal sin, if you make contact. And he makes good contact: His batting average increased from .267 and .269 to .290 while his BABIP actually decreased from .332 and .338 to .312. If he adds those .020 points back to his BABIP (which in not a guarantee; but in 2017 he hit the ball as hard as in the previous years and with pretty much the same pull-straight-opposite values, indicating that it might be an outlier) we are talking about a .310 or so hitter and close to an .875 OPS (up from his .835 last season...) I liked what I saw in ST from both Kepler and Buxton and I think that the will have good starts with Kepler continue taking meaningful PAs against LHP like he did this Spring

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- This is my last Spring Training Notes piece for this season. As with the previous seasons I finish my Spring Training notes with a prediction of how the Twins will do this season based on what I have seen this Spring. I think that 2018 will be an interesting season for the Twins. They improved a lot in the off-season addressing some of their glaring weaknesses, namely starting and relief pitching. On the other hand, there are some situations that can be disrupting for the team. Here is a closer examination: Starting Pitching: Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn are light years ahead of the likes of Bartolo Colon (15 starts), Hector Santiago (15 starts), Phil Hughes (9 starts), and a whole lot of others (16 starts) who started in 2017. Ervin Santana is a question mark and that was even before his injury that seems to be lingering into May. On the other hand, I believer that improvement from Jose Berrios (primarily) and Kyle Gibson (secondarily) as well as potential positive contribution by Trevor May, will offset the loss and regression of Santana. Based on what I have seen, Fernando Romero might be the best pitcher of the Twins at this point, and if healthy he can make a tremendous contribution in the second half of the season. Bullpen: The Twins did improve in the bullpen. Part of it was addition, part of it was subtraction. The question is whether they improved enough to have a top bullpen. Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke are useful players with varying degree of usefulness. However, does any of them strike fear in opposing batters? Would any of them have a place in one of the top bullpens? Maybe Reed, as far as the second question goes. Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers were hit hard and often in the Spring and not sure how this will translate into the season. Other than Gabriel Moya, and maybe John Curtiss and Jake Reed, there are not many reserves who project as "lights out". And that is what the new and improved Twins' pen misses. Maybe the aforementioned May, the injury-nursing Phil Hughes (who is projected in long relief, but way back in the day was Mariano Rivera's successful set up man.) or possibly Michale Pineda might jump into that role. Alternatively, depending on the team's record come July, a trade for a "lights out" arm, might be in the works. All in all an improved bullpen, but in no means a top bullpen. It is hard not to improve one of the 5 worst bullpens in the league, but still it needs work. Position Players: The Twins' young core seems much improved from last season: Miguel Sano who has the allegations now behind him and can focus 100% on baseball will play with a chip on his shoulder and will make some damage. Byron Buxton is a much better hitter than I have seen him be previously, and based on what I saw this spring, he will finally bring his speed on the table. Max Kepler is also improved. He is taking meaningful PAs against LHPs, something that was not true last season. Jorge Polanco's head was in his positive test all Spring and it showed. Hopefully he will come back ready in the second half. Logan Morrison will be a good addition and if he hits behind Sano, he will give him the protection he did not have in 2017. Eddie Rosario was hurt most of the Spring and I did not have much of an opportunity to form an opinion, but if he repeats 2017, and there is no reason he could not, the Twins will be happy. With Eduardo Escobar moving into at starting SS at least for the first half of the season, you have a Twins' 2018 double play combination that hit 55 HRs in 2017, second only to Cleveland. His double play partner, Brian Dozier, and his free agency status might be a distraction this season. He talked a lot about it, as he did about the decreased FA compensation this off-season. He also did not do very well with the bat this Spring. Not sure whether the two things are related or not, and hopefully it will not carry into the season. The same with the other upcoming free agent, Joe Mauer. Mauer's situation is different and Mauer has not been vocal about it and I don't think that it will affect him. It will be great if Dozier and Mauer will speak with their bats regarding their upcoming free agency. Competition: Do you remember when the Twins' reigned over a weak AL Central, other than times when one of the other teams was super competitive and they were neck to neck? This season the AL Central will look a lot like that with Cleveland staying about the same on paper and the improved Twins, the only teams with a winning record in 2017 and the rest of the division weakening. Maybe not the White Sox, if the young players surprise, but Detroit and Kansas City are in full rebuild mode. According to fangraphs, the Twins have the second easiest schedule (on paper), but this should not be much of a relief, because Cleveland has the easiest. Prediction: The 2017 team won 85 games, but overachieved. I think that the 2018 Twins will finish with a record of 90-72, securing at least a wild card spot, and the AL Central will come down to the wire between the Twins and Cleveland. Unfortunately, unless there is major improvement (or surprises) in the bullpen , this does not seem like a team that will move deep into the post-season, unless the bats go crazy. And this can happen. So you have it. This is my last Spring Training Notes post, since the Twins start the season this Thursday at Baltimore, after they play an exhibition game in Washington against the Nationals. To see all the notes and coverage of the 2018 Twins' Spring Training, including my daily live reports from Fort Myers in the second half of March, please visit here