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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    This sounds like one blaming the damn wall for causing injuries if one willingly hits his/her head against. It is not the Damn Yankees, it is the Damn Twins (1994-now) that are prone to go belly up against better opponents (including those Yankees.) Realizing this, figuring out the root clause, and hoping that the new FO will clean it up, is much more productive than blaming the wall one bangs his/her head against.
  2. Thrylos
    I'd like to see what teams do against Hildenberger once there is a book out on him and/or when they faced him a few times. The one guy I like from the current Twins pen, and I believe that he should be around next season, because he has contributed a lot in the long man role, but flies under the radar because of his awful numbers as a starter, is Dillon Gee. Here are his 2017 splits as a reliever: 1.53 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.16 WHIP (.310 BABIP), 19.3 % K%, 13.4 % K-BB%. Better than Kintzler's numbers. No, I would not put him as a closer, but he could be the class of the league, as far as mop up men are concerned and the Twins should have a good look and try to re-sign him this off-season.
  3. Thrylos
    Bit of nitpicking: The Elizabethton Twins will remain a Twins team for ever (or until the Twins decide to sell them.) They belong to the Minnesota Twins. Whether the Twins might decide to move the team they own in the future (like the New Britain owners decided to move their team to Hartford) is a different story. So the Twins Appalachian League Team (it is not really an "affiliate", it is owned) might stay in Elizabethton for a bit longer. Still some hoops to jump in Elizabethton, and the final approvals will be in the winter, but so far it looks good. But there is no certain affiliation agreement, like it is with Rochester and Chattanooga. It is more of a landlord relationship (like the Twins had with the authority that ran the Metrodome) with the City Council and it is lease-based. Details, but pretty important, I think. The Twins have a ton of power on what they want to do with their Appalachian League Team currently in E-Town, much more than they have with any of their affiliates (in Rochester, Chattanooga, Fort Myers, and Cedar Rapids,) as is the case with their other 2 owned teams in the GCL and DSL...
  4. Thrylos
    Let's see: Rogers: 3.19 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB Lefties in post-season rosters (guessing here) Red Sox: David Price Fernando Abad (2.98 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3 K/BB) and maybe Robby Scott (3.97 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB) Indians: Andrew Miller (1.58 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, 12.8 K/9, 4.8 K/BB) Tyler Olson (0.00 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5 K/BB) Yankees: Chapman (3.50 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 3.3 K/BB) Jordan Montgomery Jaime Garcia maybe Chasen Shreve (3.98 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 2.4 K/BB) Astros: Tony Sipp 6.29 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.4 K/BB Fransisco Liriano 5.40 ERA, 1.886 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.0 K/BB (sample size 11-2/3 IP) Maybe in Liriano's spot, and I really had not realized how bad the Astro's pen really is. Not Twins' bad, but pretty bad. The other thing here is that some pens will not have more than 1 lefty specialist in the post-season roster, and they could have their 4th and 5th starters in the pen as well. The biggest issue with Rogers (and the rest of the Twins bullpen pitching staff) is the lack of strikeouts. They just do not over power batters and batters do not seem scared to face them. That's really what the Twins need in their pen. 2-3 really scary people and they have none, right now.
  5. Thrylos
    Ok. Give me the one (or 2) players that the Indians, Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees would cut or sit for Rogers and/or Hildenberger. I just cannot find anyone.
  6. Thrylos
    Here is the question that the Twins need to answer: How many of the players in the Twins' pen today could be in the Indians', Astros', Red Sox', and Yankees' post-season bullpens? If they cannot name names (and I doubt that they can, other than mop up,) that pen needs to be rebuilt next off-season big time, and start cutting ties...
  7. Thrylos
    That is subjective. Objective measurements, 2nd half AL: fWAR 1. Lindor 3.4 2. Donaldson 3.0 3. Upton 2.8 - Trout 2.8 5. Altuve 2.7 6. Buxton 2.6 - Dozier 2.6 - Santana 2.6 wOBA 1. Santana .421 2. Donaldson .419 - Trout .419 4. Upton .417 5. Chirinos .410 6. Altuve .405 ...... t11. Buxton .398 wRC+ 1. Trout 168 2. Santana 164 - Donaldson 164 4. Upton 163 5 Altuve 158 6 A Garcia 155 - Chirinos 155 ... 13 Buxton 148
  8. Thrylos
    Good stuff, but you got to check on some ETAs (Gonsalves & Rooker. Their ETAs are in the past and did not happen). Also, I would be surprised if Jonathan Rodriguez ever makes it with the Twins. Matter of fact, he is a free agent again
  9. Thrylos
    mea culpa. Still it is the same: Not winning a series from one of the worse teams in baseball at home, and losing 2 games in a row from such a team, while competing for the post-season is not acceptable. Period.
  10. Thrylos
    The context is: Zach Granite + what Buxton will bring in a trade, and the names I threw out there were: Starling Marte + Mitch Keller, Shane Baz, Felipe Rivero > Buxton long term Not Granite > Buxton long term. Short term when Buxton was slumping (and was hurt) was a viable option . I still think that the Twins will be better if they trade Buxton for a return like that (2 top of the rotation prospects, one ready in 2018, a gold glove outfielder buying low, and probably someone who will become the premier closer in baseball), in the long term. Tossing things there out of context just to elicit a reaction, without trying to discuss the whole argument in its context, is at least pitiful, mean spirited, and trolling...
  11. Thrylos
    Before the Toronto series, I might have agreed. But when a team that is last on its division, 11 games under .500 comes to your home and wins 2 out of 3, and having to have a phenomenal comeback to get a single victory, I would have problems both with the "effort" (or lack thereof, other than yesterday), or the cohesion of this team. On another matter, fWAR (and bWAR, and WARP) does not really work well to show reliever contribution. Also the difference between a 0.3 to a 0.6 WAR is statistically insignificant The best metric to show that is likely win probability added. Here is that for today's stuff ( > 10 IP) Trevor Hildenberger 0.84 Matt Belisle 0.57 Dillon Gee 0.5 Taylor Rogers 0.36 Michael Tonkin 0.04 Alan Busenitz -0.04 Ryan Pressly -0.2 Tyler Duffey -0.43 Buddy Boshers -0.53 Duffey really has cost the Twins some games. Another thing that WPA is a great indicator (and you can see it in the case of Busenitz and Tonkin, and Perkins who has a -0.01) is of the leverage that players have been used. The 3 mentioned have been used in low leverage situations, so they cannot really affect the outcome of the game much. Duffey (and Pressly) did negatively and the 4 with the positive contributions did so positively. The fact that Boshers is still around (and Vielma is not) is more than puzzling. I just don't want to hear about extending Belisle now
  12. Thrylos
    Interesting rankings.... Here are the top 10 wRC+ rankings, plus the numbers of some names mentioned: Rooker (A+ only 162 PA) 166 Rodriguez 164 Garver 159 Paul (A+ only 264 PA) 149 Granite 144 TJ White 144 Andy Wilkins 141 Wade 135 (Javier 131 - but didn't you have a short season list too?) Zander Wiel 125 Palacios 124 Hague 122 Blackenhorne 121 Max Murphy 120 Gordon 117 Diaz 114 Pretty close, but the subjective rankings are slightly different. Some of those guys, like Palacios, and Gordon (surprised for the non-mentions of the "Twins #1 prospect" ) really dropped after they were promoted or later in the season. Wilkins was the big miss of the group. Rooker is the class of this list. Might be in the majors middle of next year sharing reps at 1B with Mauer and platooning with Kepler when and if needed, and the starting first baseman in 2019.
  13. Thrylos
    Way ahead of the others, both in age and (fewer) years of club control...
  14. Thrylos
    Using xPE (Moran 169.3) Moya 111.7 - only his Twins' numbers Anderson 82.1 Hector Lujan 69.1 Bard 56.8 Hackimer 54.5 ----- (Turley 51.2) (Hildey 44.1) (Busenitz 38.6) Vasquez 35.7 (Curtiss 32.6) Moran had the best season but he is short season. Using xPE because it approximates SIERA the closest (good luck finding MiLB SIERA) and I think that SIERA is probably the best metric in evaluating pitching performance, esp. relievers (along with WPA, but even better luck finding those numbers.) Using xFIP the ranking goes like: Moya 0.92 Vasquez 2.28 Tonkin 2.49 Bard 2.55 Anderson 2.58 --- Curtiss - 2.78 Lujan 2.83 Hackimer 3.27 The issue I have with xFIP is the artificially high weight on HRs, thus pitchers who suppress the HR, like Tonkin, are ranked artificially higher than where they should be. ERA is just an awful metric for a reliever. A reliever who comes in with the bases loaded and 2 outs can walk 3, get an out and come out with 0 ER. WHIP should always be normalized for BABIP, esp. when you go across leagues, assuming that team defense is not equivalent among different teams. Moran had a phenomenal season, he should be rewarded for it
  15. Thrylos
    The absence of Luke Bard is puzzling. He had a 1.332 WHIP, but that was driven by his ridiculous (.389 BABIP) other than that, his peripherals were better than most listed. The absence of Gabriel Moya who had an ever better season than Curtiss (0.76 ERA, 0.775 WHIP, 13.4 K/9, 2.4 BB.9) is inexcusable. He had the best season than any of the Twins' minor league relievers, wearing both the Twins' uniform and not, and in my book he is the Twins' minor league reliever of the year.
  16. Thrylos
    Here is someone from the forgotten affiliate whose season is close,but no cigar, to Baddoo's: Alberoni Nunez: 48-193, .352/.420/.545 (.965), 3 HR, 7 3B, 9 2B, 38 RBI, 11 SB My ranking would be objective using wRC+ Akil Baddoo 183 (GCL) Alberoni Nunez 172 (DSL) Yeltsin Encarnacion 165 (DSL) Shane Kennedy 160 (APL) Jordan Gore 158 (GCL) Rubuen Santana 154 (DSL) Rainis Silva 147 (GCL) Brent Rooker 145 (APL) Benjamin Rodriguez 144 (APL) Jean Carlos Arias 138 (APL) Colton Burns 138 (GCL) Davinson Pimental 137 (DSL) Royce Lewis 136 (APL) Samuel Vasquez 136 (DSL) Shane Carrier 135 (GCL) Wander Javier 131 (GCL) but I would not think of Rooker or Lewis as part of this list, because they graduated the short seasons. And this should be who had the best season at his level and not who is the best prospect, and it is hard to deny the data that shows that Baddoo did...
  17. Thrylos
    IIRC he was not fired after the season when the team L 103...
  18. Thrylos
    Plenty? Let's see who was fired after the season: The hitting and first base coach of a team that had the worst pitching and fielding in baseball; every one in the Front office, but that man who was responsible for the Fort Myers improvements, stayed. That's like blaming Jerry and Stelly for the 99 L season...
  19. Thrylos
    Cute and with substance. Allen, Molitor, Vavra are not mass firings from a 103 L staff. I explained in depth why they need to go away from a team that has improved despite them.
  20. Thrylos
    You cannot judge Molitor without bring 2016 into conversation. He is the leader of the worst team the Twins had had since they moved to MN. The pitching has sucked equally in 2016 and 2017, if you take ERA and the other numbers (like WHIP) that are affected by the much improved Twins' fielding in 2017. Allen has to go, no matter how you look at it. About time that the Cleveland Pitching Guru brings someone who knows pitching to be the pitching coach. Vavra has to go too, if not for any other reason, just because of the Gardenhire and the 99+96+96 (and now +103) taint. Molitor needs to go as well because he does not understand the concept of win probability and the fact that you have higher win probability with a man on first and no outs vs with a man on second and 1 out. Bunting your hottest hitter multiple times in a game and in a series should be a fatal offense for a manager in 2017. Same with burning one of the 2-3 reliable bullpen arms (Rogers) you have, just to get one out. Hope that he goes Kelly's way, with his head up and the team in an upswing and goes to Fort Myers to do what Kelly used to do. He is 61. Kelly was a decade younger when he retired.
  21. Thrylos
    I am not defending Gleeman here. (And, of course, he posted that junk out of context, which was that Buxton should be traded for 2-3 players who can contribute now and in the future. But this is another discussion) Anyways. Matter of fact, if Souhan's write up is about Gleeman, Souhan is even further off the point, because Gleeman is not a "blogger" by any means. He has been gainfully employed by third parties doing his stuff about baseball for a while, just like Souhan has...
  22. Thrylos
    Really excited about Baddoo. He made leaps and bounds as far as development went this year and should be in the conversation for a top 10 prospect Rooker might be the steal of the draft. I can see him with the Twins some time next season and replacing Mauer at 1B in 2019. Aggressive somewhat, but I think that it is realistic (but we got to see how he will play in Chattanooga next season.) Good to see Blackenhorn pick it up as well. Interesting to see where he will end up position wise. From the Forgotten Affiliate: Yeremi De La Cruz .364/.450/.576, 6 BB, 5 K, 1 HR Alberoni Nunez .311/.429/.533, 9 BB, 9 K, 1 HR, 6 SB Samuel Vasquez .319/.439/.489, 9 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, 13 SB Ruben Santana .327/.421/.469, 8 BB, 6 K, 0 HR, 2 SB
  23. Thrylos
    Agree'd, but name calling and cheap shots is Souhan's MO. If y'all do not remember, this is what he wrote when the Twins traded Slowey Talking about "integrity" and "professionalism". This is what Souhan is all about.
  24. Thrylos
    Agreed. And after today, I have seen enough of Buddy Bo, as well.
  25. Thrylos
    Simple. Just like with football: The Twins' FO instead of tossing nuggets to Souhan, if they have concerns about Sano's weight, they should talk to their employee and give him a weight limit. And report that fact to the media. Or not.
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