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Everything posted by Thrylos
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There are people who have said "blow up the farm" for pitchers like Gray and Quintana and Stroman. Young controllable Aces do not grow on trees, and the Twins really need one, but those 3 are not. Chris Archer on the other hand, is. I would not mind blowing up the farm for Chris Archer, because he will be part of the future (which will not be "mortgaged") and because in positions of immediate need, the "farm" is not that great to begin with. On the same breath, I would trade Dozier, Santana, and Kintzler for further young, controllable rotation and pen help. Maybe Cameron disagrees with this type of thought.
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I was doing some reasearch to write a profile for Garcia, and I think that another reason that the Twins should like that he is only a rental is his injury history. His pro career kinda goes like this: 2006 - first pro season out of High School 167-2/3 IP 2007 - second pro season - shut down in July with elbow lssues - R&R 2008 - third pro season - elbow blow - TJ surgery 2009 - fourth pro season TJ rehab 2010 - fifth pro season, partial after rehab 163-1/3 IP 2011 - sixth pro season, full, all the way to the WS. Ring! 220-1/3 IP 2012 - seventh pro season, half season lost with labrum inflammation & rotator cuff strain - R&R 2013 - eighth pro season, in May rotator cuff and labrum surgery 2014 - ninth pro season Shoulder "inflamation" R&R in ST, back for a month, TOS surgery Relatively "healthy the last 2 seasons". 171-2/3 IP in 2015 and 113 so far this season. They guy had the combined surgeries of Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins and Trevor May. His innings are getting up there. Again. No matter what, the team that will be signing him in 2018 will be living on a prayer. Hope it is not the Twins... (And as much as we despise the Twins' med stuff decisions to rest and see what happens before final surgery, the Cards' was not that much better in Garcia's situation)
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Twins Complete Trade for Braves LHP Jaime Garcia
Thrylos commented on Brandon Warne's blog entry in BW on the Beat
"Ynoa, who turned 19 at the end of May, was signed by the A’s for Twins as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic for $800k. He’s the younger brother of Michael Ynoa, the ballyhooed pitching international prospect signed by the Oakland A’s in 2008 for a then-record $4.25 million" FTFY -
Article: BREAKING: Twins Acquire Garcia From Braves
Thrylos replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
FYIY, I had Ynoa as the Twins' 20th prospect last off-season with an ETA of 2020 (which after this season seems generous) with Jay, Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia, Burdi, Graterol, Stewart, Melotakis all ahead of him, and the other former Twin of today, Justin Haley one stop behind at 21. Really this trade was Ynoa for Garcia and Haley for Recker. The first part I can deal with. Ynoa has mechanical issues big time and regressed this season. The second part makes me think that something else might be brewing, because I cannot see how would anyone in their right mind trade Haley for Recker, instead of picking up a free agent catcher from the independent leagues. -
Why don't you throw in Gonsalves and Romero as well.... Graterol should be as close to untouchable as anything in the Twins' organization, because he has the highest ceiling of any of their pitching prospects (albeit comes with more risk than someone like Romero) Jay (and Burdi) should be anchoring the tail end of the Twins' pen for a long time, not traded for a rental. Glad that it did not happen with Burdi. The Braves gave to the Cardinals the following for Garcia: Luke Dykstra, Chris Ellis, and John Gant. Dykstra has a career .687 OPS in 4 seasons and just reached high A Ellis has a career 4.94 ERA in 4 minor league seasons and he is in AAA Gant was a mop up man, and spot starter with 4.86 ERA in 20 games (7 starts) For half the season, half of the value of the above, that would be either Ellis or Gant and Dykstra. In other words in Twins' comparables, either someone like Slegers or someone like Haley and Sean Miller. Not anyone with real potential.
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Article: Twins Now A Destination For Pitching
Thrylos replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sure, but: You are in Oregon now. Compare that with Minnesota. Not only in April through October, but if you have a family, in December through February, as well. I'd take San Diego for lesser $. Quality of life outside ballgames does matter, and if you are not from Minnesota getting used to living there in the winter can break you.- 17 replies
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Article: Twins Now A Destination For Pitching
Thrylos replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd wait for top free agents to snub New York and LA to come to Minnesota, and then I'd call it a "destination". Short of that, it attracts mediocrity, as usually.- 17 replies
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Article: Searching For Relief
Thrylos replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
5. and place in the AAA DL. Michael Kohl- 125 replies
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Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided
Thrylos replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
FTFY -
Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided
Thrylos replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One h too many for that guy -
Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided
Thrylos replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that this is wrong. Once you are in, you will go as far as you can. It is not a roll of the dice. Where that, probability says that the Twins would had been in 2 World Series in the 00's, winning one. Did not happen, because they were not build to win in the post season. -
Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided
Thrylos replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not sure that this is what it will take. I think that they need 2 relievers better than Kintzler, 1 starter better than Berrios, and one OF/DH bat with pop to have a chance. They have to go past the Astros. They are 1-5 against them this season. Same with Boston, they are 2-5 against them this season. A seventh inning guy and a 4th starter will not cut the mustard... It is not about making the post-season, it is about winning in the post-season. And if you are not going to win, you might as well get something for people who will not be around next season and/or are guaranteed to decline, and hope that this something will be better now and in the long run... -
Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided
Thrylos replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Casual baseball fans, like Vikings' fans, maybe do not understand the subtleties of the sport, like guaranteed contracts, non-tradeable draft picks etc. One of those subtleties is that a team can compete by "selling" older declining assets at their peak and replacing them by long term assets. Kintzler, Santana, Dozier should all go to greener pastures with the sum of their return making the Twins more competitive in 2017 and beyond. That's "selling" and "buying"; an option not on that poll and bit foreign to football... -
This was likely written before last night's game, because I am not sure what Pressly is pulling together... The more and more I am looking at the pen, the more and more I think that the Twins should blow it up. Kintzel (2.18 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.98 xFIP, 82.9% LOB% & .254 BABIP) will regress soon and when he does, he better wear another uniform. His value is on its peak and if the Twins can get one good prospect, instead of nothing when he leaves as a free agent, this will be a gain. The killer Bees (Breslow, Belisle, Boshers) gotta go. Pressly is the Gibson of the bullpen. Lots of potential, but something in their heads tells them to throw fat pitches down the middle. This leaves: Duffey, Rogers, Hildy. I'd do what the Wsux did with Sale and bring up Romero and have him pitch late in the games. Then open up a revolving door and have the 3 hottest arms among (alphabetically) Bard, Bucenitz, Curtiss, Melotakis, Reed, Rosario, Turley, (and I would add Hildy to the rotation if he cools of.) As far as a closer goes, E. Santana and Dozier can be traded for a couple young controllable MLB-ready starters and a young controllable MLB-ready fireballer. That's what I would do.
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Article: Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?
Thrylos replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Actually this has been the norm with the Twins. Here is where College hitters selected on the first round (or sup first) have played in their first pro seasons: 2012 Levi Michael A+ 1997 Matt LeCroy A/A+ 1994 Todd Walker A+ 1991 Dave McCarty A+ 1991 Scott Stahoviak A+ Truth is they have not selected many college hitters very early, but when they did, they started them in Ft Myers, other than LeCroy who started in A and ended up at Fort Myers, and as a C, that is an aggressive path. Norm. Nothing unusual, other than the fact that they selected a college hitter that high- 54 replies
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Article: A Look Back: The 2005 American League Cy Young
Thrylos replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Been a long time, but this reminds me a bit of 1987 when the Twins traded for the then 42 year old Steve Carlton and filled the Dome every time he pitched. IIRC his first start was a attendance record for the time. Not that Colon had the career that Carlton had, but his numbers are a lot like Jack Morris's, and he got a late start making his MLB debut at 24. Will be interesting to see if people are going to go to the ballgame just to see him pitch, like they did with Carlton. FWIW Carlton went 1-5 with a 6.70 ERA in 9 games, 7 starts. Hope that Colon's leash is shorter. Re: 2005 Cy Young vote: that was a travesty but back then "wins" was a hard currency among voters (and still is for some reason.)- 21 replies
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He is 26 in A ball. 3 years older than league average. That's why
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Article: Deadline Primer: Internal Options
Thrylos replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Quick: Pick the one that does not belong in this group. Hint: Has a fork stuck in him- 37 replies
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Article: Deadline Primer: Internal Options
Thrylos replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well... I think that it is more of evaluation than incorporation. And some of that will happen at the minor league level with some players not making it to the bigs. For example: The one time I saw Slegers pitch in a game this season he was horrible. From what I have seen throughout his career, his stuff, like Wheeler's, just does not translate to the bigs. Maybe in the pen, if he can add 3-4 mph. Maybe. And then I think that his ceiling might be Tonkin... More than nit-picking: I would love to figure out what "solid" and "ok" is. Data: Game Scores (50 is average) Mejia's last four starts: 62, 61, 51, 51 Gibson's starts since his return: 30, 48, 53, 59, 28, 45, 49, 42, 58, 15 Jorge's starts: 42, 21 So "solid" Mejia, has been from above average to high average, while Jorge's "solid" start was way below average. I'd say that Mejia has been "good to very good" the last 4 starts, and that Jorge "struggled" in both of his starts, with the last one being horrible. Gibson's "ok" includes 3 horrible starts, 2 very good starts, 2 average starts, 1 above average start, and 2 below average starts. That is not "ok" by any means. Gibson, since his return has been "up and down", but mostly "not very good". For comparison's purpose, Nik Turley's game scores were 34, 13, and 20, Adam Wilk's 24 and Nick Tepesch's 29 (Nothing "ok" about any of those either) So if the "Nik Turley experiment didn’t work as a starter" It would be fair to say that the Felix Jorge experiment did not work, because he really was pitching at the Turley territory, and Gibson, also was there is about 1/4 of his starts post recall... Just not many SP options internally. I'd like to see Romero and Gonsalves make it (in that order) just because I would like to see them pitch for the Twins, but I don't want to see them pitch like Jorge or Turley and someone has to evaluate whether they can do that before they bring them up.- 37 replies
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Value. Which means that based on what Quintana brought, Archer (and whoever they have higher) would bring the top 4 prospects in baseball or something; thus it is unrealistic, thus the "faulty" remark. And I just noticed that they have Madison Bumgarner who is untradable right now, ahead of Quintana and Stroman. Faulty for sure.
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No and No way a. I ranked Gordon as the Twins' 5th prospect last off-season b. I ranked Vielma as the Twins' 14th prospect last off-season Ranking someone as the 5th best prospect does not mean "never been high"; It is pretty high. Just not as high as the "norm". If I thought that Vielma would have a better career than Gordon, I would have ranked him higher than Gordon. I do think that Vielma will be a better shortstop than Gordon. So, I am pretty high on Gordon, but I am not saying that a. he will be a shortstop in the majors or b. he will be a superstar and borderline hall of famer, like some. I think that he projects as a solid bat like Greg Gagne or Todd Walker and likely a second baseman. Re: Rollins' career 95 OPS+ : It is still better than HOFer Ozzie Smith's 87. Use WAR.

