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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Having someone who was below average defensively as a finalist is laughable; however since it increases Dozier's trade value, I am all for it...
  2. Thrylos
    Here are the leaders in several metrics, old school, new school and in between, among qualified (per fangraphs) AL 1B, with Mauer's ranking also included: Plus Minus: Moreland; Mauer 3rd Defensive Runs Saved: Santana, Moreland tie; Mauer 3rd RZR: Valencia (yes that one); Mauer 3rd Out of Zone plays made: Smoak; Mauer 4th UZR: Mauer 1st Fangraphs Def: Mauer 1st Fielding percentage: Valencia & Cabrera tie; Mauer 3rd Inside Edge 90-100% plays made: Moreland; Mauer 6th Range Factor: Abreu; Mauer 7th Should Mauer objectively be a finalist: Probably. Was he outrageously snubbed? Not really.
  3. Thrylos
    Two words: Brandon Morrow.
  4. Thrylos
    Unless you really know who was on the table, you cannot judge a non-made trade. Let's say that the Dodgers, in addition to DeLeon, to sweeten the trade they wanted to throw in a journeyman infielder to play second base for the Twins, named Chris Taylor; if that were the case, I'd say that the Twins were the losers in this non-trade. You never know unless you know all the names discussed and what the final offer was.
  5. Thrylos
    Not quite. Santana as a whole might had the second best season on the Yankees (because that is what WAR measures) but would not be the second best pitcher in the Yankees. Cumulative stats like WAR are influenced by IP. And Santana pitched a whole bunch of them, thus the higher WAR. For the post season you are really looking at pitchers' abilities to judge who will give you the best likelihood to win in a single game, so the numbers you need to use are something like FIP, K-BB%, etc. and not cumulative. Santana's 4.46 FIP would be 4th among Yankee starters, just above Sabathia's 4.49, and his 12.3 K-BB% would be 5th among Yankee starters...
  6. Thrylos
    Trades. Go after two of: Jacob deGrom, Jimmy Nelson or Chase Anderson, Alex Wood, Zack Godley, (or someone at that level and age) and call it a day. Dozier, Santana, Kepler, Garver, Vargas, Gibson, and every minor leaguer not named Romero, Jay, or Javier, or drafted in 2017, should be in play.
  7. Thrylos
    If they Twins wanted players to compliment a good rotation, Chatwood (and Lynn) would be very good targets. They need 2 pitchers on top of their rotation to compete in the post season. Chatwood and Lynn are not that. Enough with the Ryan era getting3 mediocre pitchers and see if one has a career year and extend him nonsense.
  8. Thrylos
    If Portland and Montreal want teams, Tampa and the Athletics are good candidates. However: Montreal could not support an MLB baseball franchise previously, why would anyone think that it can do it now? Portland could not support an NBA franchise previously (much less cost btw), I just don't think that it can support an MLB one. Even their AAA team (Beavers) had to leave. Now they got a new AAA team and it averages less than 4K tickets per game. No way.
  9. Thrylos
    Can the 'devil we know' pitch?
  10. Thrylos
    This team has to stop looking for number 3 type of pitchers. About time to do it right. No more half a$$ Darvish. Otani. That's about it as far as FA SPs this team should be after.
  11. Thrylos
    LAD could use a second baseman upgrade in the near future. Forsythe was horrible and Uttley will be retiring. The Cubs have Baez and the Yankees Castro, so it is unlikely that there will be interest there. The Mets and Diamondbacks need second basemen, as far as contenders go. So 3 pretty good openings there.
  12. Thrylos
    It is not only Gordon and Polanco, it is Escobar and Adrianza, as well
  13. Thrylos
    Devil's advocate: If Dozier were so good, why nobody was willing to give anything better than a rookie SP in return for him last off-season? That is a serious piece of data that should not be ignored and speaks directly about the league's perception of how good he really is...
  14. Thrylos
    I'd rather see the Twins use the $ to lock in Sano, Berrios, and Buxton, instead of spending it to extend people who soon will be past their primes. So they got to trade him, not extend him.
  15. Thrylos
    "Easy" based on old school measures like the ones mentioned, but based on others it was close. fWAR: Santana 2.9, Berrios 2.8 FIP: Berrios 3.84, Santana 4.46 K%: Berrios 22.6%, Santana 19.3% K-BB%: Berrios 21.1%, Santana 12.3% And you can fairly easily see Santana's drivers for decreased WHIP and ERA: BABIP: Santana .245, Berrios .289 LOB%: Santana 79.5%, Berrios .70.8% Santana was most valuable to the Twins, but slightly so based of fWAR, and Berrios pitched better than Santana this season, just not as much as Santana did.
  16. Thrylos
    I think that it is close between Mejia and Hildy. Mejia was the Twins' third best started (based on FIP, ERA and fWAR; was second best in K/9) and pitched 82 innings in 21 games. Hildy pitched mostly in the 7th and 8th inning so he was mainly a middle reliever and the RH setup man on occasion. Tied with Duffey (whom he replaced as the RH set up man late in the season) in 4th for Holds with 12 (Rogers had 30 and Belisle 17 before he moved to the closer position.) He was second in the team in WPA & WHIP, led in K%-BB%, and FIP. He pitched 42 innings in 37 games Given the sad state of the Twins' pitching in 2017 the high rankings among their peers do not matter much. Among a good pitching staff, a 4.50 ERA, 8 K/9, 4 BB/9 starter would probably be a 4th starter, and a 3.20 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 reliever with funky delivery would be a 7th inning guy. Flip a coin or pick the kind of contributor you value better: A 4th starter or a 7th inning guy. Mejia pitched about double the innings, while Hildy appeared in about double the games. Mind you, this is not about potential, it is about actual 2017 performance. It is that close.
  17. Thrylos
    Hate to say this, but if all of these made enough appearances in 2018 to qualify for a ROY award, it will not be a good sign for the Twins
  18. Thrylos
    Throwing some objective measures in the question: Position players fWAR 2017-fWAR 2016: Escobar 2.2 Buxton 1.8 Polanco 1.7 Rosario 1.6 Mauer 1.4 wOBA 2017 - wOBA 2016 Escobar .051 Rosario .045 Mauer .023 Buxton .008 Polanco -.015 wRC+ 2017 - wRC+ 2016 Escobar 34 Rosario 30 Mauer 14 Buxton 4 Polanco -12 So the top 5 look like: 1. Escobar 2. Rosario 3. Buxton - Mauer 5. Polanco or so. As far as position players go. Berrios' fWAR difference this season was 3.2, which is much higher than any position player, but it is comparing apples and oranges if use that as a subjective comparison measurement; however, his improvement was definitely more than the others, going from a negative value to a positive, something that no position player has done. So mine would have been: 1. Berrios, 2. Escobar, 3. Rosario.
  19. Thrylos
    Eddie Rosario's season is James Rawson's magic all the way. If there is one guy who deserves credit for the turnaround of the Twins in 2017, it is him (and Jeff Pickler.)
  20. Thrylos
    Great predictions! Mauer was looking different since the beginning of the season compared to previous seasons. Little number crunching back in April, predicted that he will hit .293/.379/.412. Not that far from his .305/.384/.417 actual... Hope he continues next season
  21. Thrylos
    That argument could had been valid if Molitor did not manage the 2016 Twins. He was the manager of the worst franchise team in MN ever.
  22. Thrylos
    Here is my take: a. By all evidence available out there, the Twins offered Molitor an one year contract for 2018 b. Molitor is the second oldest manager in the majors (t-w/Showalter) c. If one can praise Molitor as the leader of the 2017 team, he/she should also credit him with the 2016 debacle. d. I think that this is a face saving move from all parties involved and will conclude with Molitor retiring & accepting another position in the organization, a few more coaches (Allen, & Vavra for starters) not returning and a full blown coaching search.
  23. Thrylos
    My recipe for Twins success: a. get them early and get them often b. Santana pitches a GC shutout.
  24. Thrylos
    1.38 ERA, 1.102 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3.9 K/BB as a reliever, arguably the Twins' best reliever, Dillon Gee has to be on the roster.
  25. Thrylos
    The other thing that has to be noted is that Cleveland is only 2 games ahead of the Astros for ALCS home field advantage, so they will not slack in these 3 games. Both teams have to play for something (at least today. Hopefully a Twins' win and an Angels' loss tonight will take care of the rest of the season for the Twins... )
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