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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. That's an interesting "arbitration swap" Rosterman. If Gardy was still the Tiger skipper it would probably have more steam, but Eddie would give the Tigers a veteran, middle of the order bat and Boyd as a #4 or #5 would be very interesting.
  2. Just a couple more observations: Story is not just a "slightly better" hitter than Polanco. He's epically better. Story's defense is Gold Glove worthy. He would be a MAJOR upgrade over Polanco. The key with any deal for Story is to sign him to a long-term extension. I agree, you don't give up what we would in a deal for him to let him get away after one season. Story would be the position player the Twins build around. If there was any doubt on an extension, you don't make this trade. To afford Story's $18.2 million I include Sano in the trade and ask for a SP back Marquez or ?. The Rockies would be intrigued by Sano's power in Coors and they have a hole at 1B. Sano's $11.5 plus the departure of Rosario's $10 million makes Story affordable. And having Story is better than having Sano/Rosario. I understand the "why" for the Brewers in the trade. But if I was able to acquire BOTH Woodruff and Hader I'd be willing to give up a little more. Until Berrios takes that BIG step, Woodruff would be our #2 behind Maeda. Hader is certainly needed to hold down the 9th inning and let Duffey & Rogers own the 7th and 8th. I think some people posting don't understand what a special player Ketel Marte is. He's tremendously versatile. He would be a big upgrade over Arraez at 2B. He could play extensive games in CF if Buxton was injured. He's a really good hitter. He would be a "starter." An everyday lineup guy. He could play 2B, CF, SS, LF or RF. I like his defense at 2B much more than Arraez. But I also want Arraez in the lineup everyday and at the top of the order. So Marte is playing different positions frequently and hitting 2nd behind Arraez in our new lineup. The White Sox are building a team to contend for an extended period of time. The Indians, even if they trade Lindor will always compete because they PITCH. The Twins need to make some bold moves this off-season to remain the Big Dog in the division. The current cast of characters has flopped in the post-season. New blood is needed. Arraez 2B K. Marte LF N. Cruz DH T. Story SS M. Kepler RF Donaldson 3B Kiriloff 1B Garver C Buxton CF Rooker LF/1B/DH Maeda, Woodruff, Berrios, Pindea Rich Hill/Dobnak Hader, Duffey, T. Rodgers, Alcala, Theilbar, Colina, Wisler, It's an interesting team.
  3. Assuming each of these trades is viable (and I get the skepticism of some on this site) I do all three. I've been pining for Story for quite awhile. Polanco is a below average glove and an above average bat (when his pull happiness is under control). Story might be the best SS in baseball and that's saying something when you consider how much talent there is at that position. You make that trade and you sign Story long term. He would be the cornerstone of our franchise. I make trade #2 because I want Hader. He's a legit closer who we could limit the innings he's pitched, taking better care of him long term, because guys like Duffey and Rogers would own the 7th and 8th inning. Woodruff AND Hader is probably too much, and as good as Woodruff is I don't think the Brewers give up both. You get something else back instead (just trying to be realistic). Hader's contract makes it possible to give Story a BIG Time contract. Ketel Marte would be a regular player. Where does he fit best. Well before we get to that, he's the insurance for Buxton getting dinged. He plays CF and we leave Max Kepler in RF. But Marte looks to be BEST at 2B and that's where I would play him. What does this do to Arraez ? I love Arraez and think he should be the team's leadoff hitter. He's average to below average as a 2B-man. Certainly he's not in Marte's league defensively. Do we make Arraez our super-utility guy? And if we have Story and Marte what need have we for Polanco ? And we still haven't offered Sano in any trades, which I think we certainly should. I want Kiriloff at 1B next season. So possibly Sano and Polonco are included in some of these deals. Either way you'd have something like this: C Garver Jeffers 1B Kiriloff 2B K. Marte Arraez 3B Donaldson Blankenhorn SS T. Story LF Rooker CF Buxton RF M. Kepler DH Cruz SP Maeda, Berrios, Pineda ________ ______ BP Hader, Duffey, T. Rogers, Wisler, Theilbar, Alcala, Etc... The Twins haven't won a playoff game in forever. Make some BIG moves and become a REAL contender.
  4. Great article Mike ! Still, I haven't changed my mind. Gotta keep Buxton because he's our CF'er. Kepler doesn't have the overall success with the bat that Eddie has, but he's a better overall player in my mind. I've been banging the drum all off-season and will continue throughout the winter It's time to TRADE Sano !! We have Kiriloff and Rooker who are ready and frankly will be more "consistent" offensive threats than Sano. They will have consistently "better" at bats. Eddie is the odd man out. With Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach he is not cost effective. The Twins need to use the money saved from moving on from Sano and Rosario on other areas. For Sano, Colorado and Miami would be a couple of GM's I'd be calling. For Eddie, it's time to just let him go. That doesn't mean we can't cheer him on while he plays for another team. However, the Twins cannot move on from Sano and Eddie AND fail to bring back Nellie Cruz. They need Cruz in that lineup more than ever before. If they have the courage to move on from Sano and Eddie, I think they will find a way to bring Nellie back.
  5. So much of this comes down to what the Twins are willing to spend compared to the rest of MLB. I believe there are unique opportunities to upgrade the roster, but there are many different ways to do it. I'm all for trading Sano. I see the Rockies have a terrible rating at 1B. How interested would the Rockies be in having someone with Sano's power hitting in Coors? How about solidifying the infield defense with one of the best SS bats in baseball with a package for Trevor Story ? I'd like to trade Sano to CUT our salary so we can use $$ elsewhere. Story would ADD to the payroll but he'd be a heck of an addition. You only do this if you can sign Story to another 6-7 year contract but our lineup would be even BETTER with Story replacing Sano. I believe Story is GOOD and NOT a product of Coors Field.
  6. If the Twins traded Sano and his $11.5 million dollar salary and made Kiriloff the 1B-man that would open up ALL SORTS of possibilities. I believe the Twins offense would be fine without Sano and Rosario and we would be better defensively. Also, there is no way on God's Green Earth that Trevor May is in the same conversation/classification as Brand Hand. Just no way. Hand is far superior and has a track record that puts May to shame.
  7. I need some clarification guys. I've read that Kiriloff is actually an above average to good defensive 1B-man. I've also read he decent in the outfield. Not Buxton/Kepler good, but better than Rosario and Rooker. I haven't heard much about Rooker as a 1B-man. It's nitpicky but in any scenario without Rosario wouldn't we have have one of Kiriloff and Rooker in the lineup ? Also, if Sano was traded (yeah, I know I'm a broken record on this) wouldn't Kiriloff and Rooker BOTH be in the lineup? Who is at 1B and who is in LF ?? I just think both kids have shown they will HIT. In order to sign a free agent SP and/or RP the Twins MUST welcome the youth movement. BOTH Kiriloff and Rooker should break camp with the team.
  8. This is why I'm hoping the Twins trade Sano. I want to shed his $11.5 million in salary and put Kiriloff at 1B. Better fielder, more consistent hitter with the expectation of "better" at-bats. Not as much power...I think we'd be fine. I'd like to use the roughly $11-million in savings to make our favorite baseball team BETTER. A true closer---Brand Hand? Liam Hendricks? It would be interesting to see what the Twins could do with that $11-million.
  9. Nicely laid out and reasoned. I have a couple of changes, one of them big. C Gaver & Jeffers 1B Kiriloff 2B Arraez Schoop SS Polanco Adrianza 3B Donaldson OF Kepler, Buxton, Rooker, Cave DH Cruz SP Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Ray, Dobnak RP Hand, Duffey, Rogers, Alcala, Wisler, Stashak, Clippard, Ed. Colina In this scenario I trade Sano and put Kiriloff at 1B. I save 11.5 million. I'm not going to say WHO we trade Sano for, that could make for some good discussion elsewhere. But in not having Pillar, Sano and Soria we free up an additional 24.5 million. Rooker and Kiriloff are about 1.2 million total Brad Hand costs us 7.5 million. We still have about 7 million to play with. We could have a better backup SS, we could add another veteran piece to the bullpen or look for a bigger piece than Robbie Ray in the rotation. Having Rogers and Duffey for high leverage situations and a proven closer in Hand makes for a great bullpen.
  10. I also am a big fan of Javier. At least his potential, since he hasn't played much for a couple of years. I protect him, Rijo and Jax. I also think you gotta protect Colina. Guys that throw 100 mph with wipeout sliders are what every team is looking to pick up. Sure, his one appearance was not so good. But I was impressed with his "stuff.' He just looked REALLY jacked up for his first ever appearance.
  11. Hmmmm, so why not be bold and offer Trevor Bauer 3-years, $25 million per year. Take some "uncertainty" and make it "certain." That contract could be $5 to $10 million below his market value but it offers Bauer "certainty." It also offers the Twins certainty as they then prioritize their payroll for 2021-2023. They lock up an Ace at the top of their rotation and suddenly, instead of having to "Homer" their way to wins, they can pitch. Then the Twins can decide to move on from Sano and Rosario with Kiriloff at 1B and Rooker/Larnach in LF. There needs to be a youth movement for the Twins. They need to get some of these prized prospects up to the show. That will allow them the payroll flexibility to add a stud Ace like Bauer. Rather than wait for the market to freeze you out, be bold, and set the market and make a BIG statement.
  12. Good point oh Wise One. I concur.
  13. Boy, I think it's obvious. Put him back on the 40-man. Do they really have so many guys who are better prospects? And at his age? 2020 is/was a very "odd" year. Other than my determination to move on from Rosario and Sano I wouldn't make too many knee-jerk decisions. Littell has too much potential (and he's already demonstrated what that potential is) to just let him drift away (like Nick Anderson)!!
  14. Great Title !! I would trade Eddie for Hernandez (but I'd be willing to take any of the guys you mentioned). Eddie would give the Marlins a solid bat in LF or RF. The Marlins proved they are a young team on the rise and a solid major league hitter like Eddie may be just the thing they need. But the Twins should never have let Zac Gallon get away to Arizona, they need to add a young Marlin arm in a Rosario deal that allows Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach significant AB's.
  15. I actually LIKE a Twins lineup WITH Cruz but WITHOUT Rosario. Give me a Kiriloff or Rooker in Eddie place and I'm fine with that. Simmons intrigues me because he's such a great fielding SS. What would it take? That would make Polanco our super-utility guy in the infield. If our OF'ers are Buxton, Kepler, Rooker, Kiriloff and Cave/Wade we're O.K. Larnach could be part of the mix if Sano is traded (I hope so) and Kiriloff becomes our 1B-man. With his injury history, what would Simmons cost? What about Jose Iglesias ? I think we're fine with Garver, Jeffers and the Turtle.
  16. I'd inquire about a Sano to the Rockies trade for Story. We'd have to give up much more, but I've got to believe the Rockies would be tempted by Sano's power in that thin air. The Twins could play Kiriloff exclusively at 1B or even move Donaldson over there for a game here and there. But their defense would improve substantially at SS and Story in front of or behind Cruz in the lineup would be exciting. The Rockies wouldn't be interested in Polanco as they have a young SS (Brendan Rogers) who would step in, so this might entail dealing Polanco in a separate deal. How about Sano and either Duran or Balazovic?
  17. I certainly trade Sano. He's the most likely guy that SHOULD be moved (Rosario, alas will probably get released, which is unfortunate that you wouldn't get anything for him but also needs to be done. We have young talent that we need to employ). 1. Sano has tremendous power potential. True he has holes in his swing but the power is undeniable. Several teams should be interested. Trading Sano would free up payroll to employ elsewhere on the roster. Putting Kiriloff at 1B gives the Twins better defense. It would put a more consistent at-bat-by-at-bat hitter in the Twins lineup. 2. How would we use the $20 million dollars saved by moving on from Sano and Rosario? We push all our chips into the middle of the table and we sign Trevor Bauer and KEEP Nelson Cruz for another year plus a mutual option. Cruz is the most professional hitter in our lineup. We don't become any kind of a better lineup without Cruz in the #3 or #4 spot next year. Bauer, Maeda, Berrios, Pineda (Hill, Dobnak, etc... as #5). Solid starting pitching with the core of a solid bullpen (Taylor Rodgers needs to bounce back, but he will). 3. Moving on from Sano and Rosario allows the Twins to keep Cruz and go get Bauer. 4. Let the Youth Movement begin ! Jeffers, Garver, Kiriloff, Arraez, Rooker, Lewis, Blankenhorn, and a bunch of guys in our bullpen are VERY payroll friendly. So are Kepler, Polanco, Buxton and even Berrios and Maeda for that matter. Larnach is GOOD. He will be up pretty soon as well. The Twins have a bunch of young players that will be very payroll friendly for several years. It's time to leverage that so that Cruz, Donaldson and someone like Bauer can be fit into a payroll structure. 5. Getting something decent for Sano would be good. Waiting for someone to over-pay or the "perfect" deal would be a mistake. Getting anything for Rosario would be nice. But moving these two talented yet terribly inconsistent hitters out of our inconsistent lineup would be addition by subtraction. And what have the Twins got to lose ?? What they have hasn't been getting the job done (18 straight post season losses is NOT a mirage). Possible Twins Lineup in 2021 without Sano and Rosario: 1. Arraez 2B 2. Donaldson 3B 3. Cruz DH 4. Kepler RF 5. Polanco SS 6. Kiriloff 1B 7. Garver C 8. Rooker LF 9. Buxton CF Starting Rotation: 1..Bauer $30-$35 million one year deal (3-years if he'll do it). 2. Maeda 3. Berrios 4. Pineda 5. R. Hill/R. Dobnak That's a pretty good lineup. That's a GREAT rotation. If somehow Bauer gets away, go after James Paxton. Change is coming to the Minnesota Twins. With Falvey and Levine it will not be the moribund "treading water" philosophy of the Terry Ryan regime. Falvey & Levine are probably determined to break that 18-game post-season winless streak. They know they aren't going to do it with the status quo.
  18. Great topic, great opinions. I am mostly in chpettit19's corner, with a couple of changes. I start with Cruz. We haven't won a post season game in our last 18 tries. Our offense seems to desert us come the post season. Cruz was the ONLY hitter who showed up. I HAVE TO HAVE HIM. $10-$13 million-1year with a $10 million dollar 2nd year option. He wants to be here...we need him. Bring him back. Rosario is traded or DFA'd. Sano is TRADED. $10 million saved. Someone will be intrigued by his power. I have Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wade and maybe Cave in the Outfield. Garver & Jeffers are my catchers. Donaldson, Polanco and Arraez are 3B, SS, 2B. I get Royce Lewis up here as my super utility guy. Maybe he can play Winter Ball and play all over. But the youth movement MUST begin. Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and Dobnak are 4 starters. I offer Rich Hill one more year at 2-3 million. And then I pay $30-$35 million for Trevor Bauer. The Twins CAN afford both Cruz and Bauer. Kiriloff, Rooker, Lewis (and Larnach not too long after) need to be around Cruz and Donaldson. it's more important to get them up to the show than risk another lost of limited minor league season. I keep Rogers at $5-$6 million---He's much better than what he showed this year. He'll be back. All this could have a payroll of roughly $115-$120 million. Start the youth movement. Retain valuable vets. In 2-years we will know if Buxton should be our CF or if Lewis supplants him. If Kepler sticks and Kiriloff, Larnach and Rooker replace him. If Polanco is our SS or if Lewis or Wander Javier or somebody else is. And sometime in 2021 or 2022 Balazovic and Duran are knocking on the door. The Braves and Dodgers, the Rays and White Sox ALL have young players ready to emerge if they haven't already. We have to trust our young guys.
  19. There may not be a LOT of FA Starting Pitchers we should be interested in, but there is ONE GUY that would be a difference maker...Trevor Bauer. If you want to go head to head with Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, Blake Snell/Tyler Glasnow, ETC...you need a guy like Bauer. I would argue that the idea of dealing Sano, dealing or releasing Rosario, parting ways with Marwan allows the Twins to offer Bauer $30-$35 million in a one year contract. With Kiriloff, Rooker, Jeffers, and possibly Blankenhorn or Royce Lewis on the team (and possibly a Colina or Chalmers in the BP) there is ALL SORTS of payroll flexibility. I don't disagree with the idea of trading for additional starting pitching. I don't want to take anything off the table. But I see the Twins entering a period of a "skinny" rebuild by aggressively promoting young talent to play and learn next to guys like Cruz, Donaldson etc...
  20. Great takes everyone. I see the need to move on from Eddie. A non-tender is a distinct possibility. I'd trade Sano for a bag of baseballs right now, but honestly, there are teams that WILL be intrigued with his power. Look at the Indians making a deal for a similar player in Franmil Reyes. With young bats like Kiriloff and Rooker we're a net better offense. They take BETTER AB's than Eddie and Sano. Larnach is close and Royce Lewis will either be the future SS or CF'er depending on how soon he's ready.
  21. Absolutely bring Nellie back ! And give him 2-years to boot. He's far and away our best hitter. His next contract will be his last. TRADE SANO ! It's already time for Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach and it's pretty darn near the time for Royce Lewis. Sano, Rosario, possibly Polanco, Romo, May, Adrianza, Marwan, Avila, possibly Clippard (possibly not), and more should be traded or DFA'd. We can revise our payroll and move foward.
  22. Whoops ! Listed Wisler twice in the bullpen. (Darn Math !!). Doesn't change my overall outlook for the bullpen. Keep stacking up power arms that are young (ala the Royals in their back to back World series years). We've got talented young arms to unleash. Do it.
  23. 1. Eddie won't be back. It will be addition by subtraction. I would hope they could get something for him in a trade, but if not, let him go and make way for Kiriloff/Rooker. 10+ million saved. 2. Utility---Royce Lewis. it's time. He's also the RH bat 4th OF'er type that the team needs. He could play SS, CF, 3B and 2B. I like Travis Blankenhorn as well. These guys replace Marwan and Adrianza. However, I also like the idea of looking into a guy like Jose Iglesias. Good glove at SS (massive defensive upgrade from Polanco) and his bat has improved the last 2-years. I've said this in another post, but if Boston is really considering moving Bogaerts make a deal. Sano and Polanco for Bogaerts ?? Sano's bat in Fenway has to be tempting for the Red Sox, especially after they move on from JD Martinez. Polanco slots in at SS or 2B for Boston. Bogaerts would cost move than Sano and Rosario combined but if you're looking to bring up a LOT of our young talent we could afford it. Who wouldn't want Bogaerts instead of Polanco ??? 3. Rotation: Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, (Hill or Dobnak). Not a bad start. How would Trevor Bauer or James Paxton look in this rotation ? If we swung a deal for Bogaerts maybe this wouldn't be possible. But...maybe not. If we go out and get a Bauer or Paxton, somebody PLEASE tell Rocco not to take either out of the game after 5 innings, 80 pitches, zero or one run allowed and 8 or 9 K's !!! 4. Cruz. Any cost for Nellie is short term. You gotta have him back. He's our only truly professional hitter. He will need more frequent rest, but you have a wealth of young hitters who could get added AB's by rotating them through the DH. 5. Bullpen: Duffey, Rogers, Wisler, Theilbar, Stashek, Wisler, Alcala. That's 7 out of 8 guys. Bullpens are notoriously inconsistent year to year but 7 out of 8 spots look good "today.' I like May's power arm but he's getting more somewhere else and frankly, I'm tired of the frustration. Romo and Clippard are guys who get by on guile, I'd rather take a chance on a power arm like Colina or Chalmers. But I'd also look at a RH guy that can close---Liam Hendricks?? I want someone I can count on in the 9th inning for 2021. Taylor Rogers needs to prove it to me all year in 2021. Hendricks closing and Rogers in the 7th or 8th is something I like.
  24. Lots of interesting discussion and speculation. My 2-cents: I'd look for more of a re-tool (after all we've won the division 2 years running). But not a "light" re-tool. I'd be aggressive. They need to create a pathway for younger, affordable players like Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach. The idea of trading Sano to an NL team to be their DH is an excellent start. There is no denying he has tremendous power, but for me his AB's are just too "all or nothing--inconsistent." The same with Rosario. Moving Sano and Rosario while replacing them with Kiriloff and Rooker frees up up payroll and actually benefits the lineup with a couple of hitters who would look to have more consistently effective AB's. The unknown here is what could you get for each of these guys ? SP's ? RP's ? Other prospects ? That's speculation that will manifest itself more once the cold winter months are upon us. But moving on from Sano and Rosario are moves which not only must be contemplated, but eventually executed. Cruz MUST be brought back. He's the only truly professional hitter we have. We simply cannot be out bid for him if the feelings are mutual that he'd like to come back. Moving on from Sano & Rosario helps you sweeten the pot for Nellie. However, he's going to need more rest and he will probably have an injury or two, so Donaldson, Kepler, Kiriloff, Rooker etc...all need to be ready to DH as well. Buxton is vexing. The talent and importance to the Twins is obvious. But they need a RH 4th OF'er to guard against the inevitable. Kevin Pillar is a good suggestion and many here have mentioned him before. Perhaps there are a couple other, similar players. Polanco REALLY took a step back this year. I like the idea of a glove-first guy like Iglesias (who has become a better than average hitter). Is Boston serious about moving on from X. Bogaerts ??? If so, package Polanco and make a deal, even if it means giving up a Larnach, Balazovic etc...in the process. Would anyone disagree that Bogaerts would be a massive upgrade ?? There is no way the Yankees let DJ LeMahieu go. He's just been waaaay too good and after all, they're the Yankees. Like Cruz staying in Minnesota DJ staying with the Yanks makes too much sense. That said, Arraez needs to be our 2B-man and leadoff hitter. He's DJ without the power. He's just what the lineup needs...a table setter. I like the prospect of a rotation with Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and possibly Rich Hill on another one-year deal. Hill will miss starts, but when he's on the mound, he's effective, and we have Dobnak and others to pick up the slack. BUT...how would that rotation look with Trevor Bauer at the top ??? He's going to cost $30-$35 million. How serious is Bauer about one-year deals from now on. I'd talk to him. With the injection of Kiriloff, Rooker, Jeffers, Alcala, Colina, maybe Duran, possibly Lewis and Larnach the team friendly deal of Kepler, the fact that Arraez is affordable for the next several years etc...the Twins can afford to go big for a guy like Bauer. He will have plenty of suitors after an NL CY Young award so I hope the Twins don't get out-bid in the end like they did for Wheeler. Finally Rocco. As good as he was when balls were flying out of the yard in 2019 he was frustratingly BAD in 2020...especially in the post season. Look, we don't go out and get a guy like Bauer if the manager says "Nice job Trevor, 5 innings, 80 pitches, zero runs and 9 strikeouts?? Go sit down, Cody Stasheck has this going forward.
  25. I don't disagree with the idea of shaking things up. They should "consider" any of these possibilities. 1. Re-sign Cruz for two years. He's worth it. he's in great shape. Good grief, he was the only hitter they had in this playoff. 2. Sign Trevor Bauer and pay for it with the 18-million you will save from Odorizzi and then some. It may take $25-$30 million a year for Bauer. Bauer, Maeda, Berrios & Pineda would be a tremendous #1-#4. Figure out #5 & #6. 3. Explore trade possibilities for Rosario, Sano & BUXTON. It's time to move on from Eddie. It just is. Sano is SO wildly inconsistent. I thought 2019 he learned a lot from Cruz. In 2020 he showed he hadn't. Buxton is my controversial choice. He's a tremendous CF and his power seems to be emerging. Still, his SPEED is his #1 asset and he and Rocco can't figure out how to apply it. He's ALWAYS got something physically ailing him and it always affects his play and/or ability to get on the field. I'm ready to move on from Eddie and Sano, but I'd like to see what other teams would give up for Buxton. If I don't like it, he's my CF'er. If I do, Kepler is in CF, Rooker in LF and Kiriloff in RF. 4. Is Boston serious about trading Bogaerts ?? If so, I'd talk Polanco and others. Maybe Boston would be interested in Sano as well in a blockbuster. 5. The bullpen has pieces but May, Romo, Clippard etc...probably won't be back. This was a strange year. Maybe the Twins shouldn't "overreact." But as a fan I've seen the same crap out of Sano, Rosario, Polanco over and over again. You have 3 young emerging hitters in Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach. They play corner OF spots and 1B. Moving Rosario and Sano opens up two of those spots. You can afford Bauer if you leverage the lower salaries of the rookies for a couple of years. Be bold this off season. Consider nearly EVERYTHING.
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