GKuehl

Definitely a beneficiary of being on the 40-man roster, as he likely didn't deserve the promotion after his last 2 outings at AAA (whereas someone like Smeltzer who maybe deserved the promotion more would have required a 40-man move since he isn't already on the 40-man). Sands looked nervous at first, but once he settled in, he looked confident and capable of getting major leaguers out. He definitely looks like another intriguing arm that our pitching pipeline is starting to churn out!

Winder > Ober? When he comes back does Ober slot into the bullpen with Winder retaining a rotation spot?

Over the course of a full season, I think our defense will be one of our primary strengths. With Buxton manning CF, the importance of the range of the corner OFs is diminished. Our infield defense, particularly with Arraez playing more 1B and less anywhere else, is absolutely stellar, with gold glove candidates in Polanco and Correa up the middle. Plus, Jeffers has continued to be fantastic at stealing strikes for our pitching staff.

Our biggest flaw at this point is the bullpen and a lack of trustworthy, power arms to finish off games. It's already bitten us in the butt a few times early, but thankfully we were able to shake those games off and not let them crater our season like the Colome games early last season. Deploying Caleb Thielbar as our #1 lefty out of the pen is extraordinarily risky, and I understand that his stuff has still been as good as it was last year, but his ability to locate and make important pitches has been absent in the early going. Duffey and Stashak haven't resembled the pitchers they were in 2019 and 2020, and I think they're best left for medium-low leverage spots rather than the late innings of a close game. Griffin Jax looks like this year's Matt Wisler, which could be a fantastic development for this team, but it's difficult to trust this early on. Alcala, who we were really counting on to get some big outs for us this year is out for the foreseeable future and maybe even the entire season. At this point, the only relievers I trust to get big outs late in games right now are Duran, Joe Smith, and maybe Pagan. However, I wonder if some bullpen reinforcements are on the way. I know that it's early, but is it ever too early to start looking at reinforcements? While Matt Canterino, Ronny Henriquez, and SWR are all looked at as starting pitching prospects (and we don't want to damage their longterm outlook and value by forcing them into relief roles), I think there would be some value in calling one of them up to the big league club fairly soon. Canterino has incredible stuff, and we're likely to watch his workload closely. I would rather he uses his electric club to help the big league club than 3-inning starts every 5th or 6th day at AA. Further, Henriquez lacks prototypical size for a SP, so he may be best destined for the bullpen anyway Why not give him a taste at the big league level? And SWR is tearing it up at AAA, and while there is certainly value in keeping him stretched out as a starter for when we need him later in the year, he could be immensely valuable in the bullpen in August if we want to watch his innings as the year progresses. This team looks ready to compete, and I think we have the resources to plug some of our biggest needs from the inside, chiefly by deploying Canterino and Henriquez as flamethrowers in the major league pen.

Larnach is hitting way too well for him to go down when AK comes back. There’s no reason Larnach can’t man LF with AK at 1B and Sano splitting time at DH with Sanchez.

Joe Smith is an absolute bargain at just $2.5 million! It’s really nice to have another guy we can trust to come in and get big outs down in the bullpen.

With how well Bundy has been pitching, I wonder how likely it is we pick up his $11 million option next season (with a $1 million buyout if we don’t pick it up). After he inked his deal, I figured it was just a 1-year deal with almost no shot we’d choose to pay Bundy $11 million next season. However, he looks like a guy that can perform well, particularly after he looks to have reinvented himself and bought into the Wes Johnson “sliders, sliders, and more sliders” model.

As a devoted Pat Neshek lover, I’d have to say Neshek really isn’t a good example. You mention that relievers “burn bright and die out quickly,” but Neshek had 9 seasons after leaving the Twins with a sub-4.00 ERA and 6 of those with a sub-3.00 ERA. It doesn’t look like his opponents ever really adjusted to him — he just dealt with injuries his last few years here that made him ineffective in a very small sample.

I’ve gotta imagine things will turn around at some point — just way too many guys are underperforming their career numbers like you noted. While the argument that the weather has been a hindrance in the early going often seems like a useless trope, there have been way more than a handful of balls that would have gone for extra bases in July that have been knocked down by the wind or caught on the warning track. Better days are ahead, there’s just too much talent for this lineup to not be at least average.

After watching Duffey blow another game, I’m hard pressed to label Duffey a “good arm.” I wouldn’t mind if his “good arm” were pitching for another team in the near future.

While I agree with the general sentiment that Larnach has looked a lot better at the plate so far, this feels a bit TOO positive about a hitter with a .176 batting average and a .446 OPS (in an admittedly small sample) so far. He had that ball he smashed to center a few games ago that Kike Hernandez "dropped" that should have been credited as a double, which would make his numbers look more palatable considering how small the sample is. While his underlying numbers (exit velo, barrels, etc.) show better things are seemingly on the way, I'm a bit hesitant about proclaiming that Larnach is back and here to stay. P.S. I really like Larnach and think he'll be a really good major league hitter for a long time.

I’ve been wondering if we’ll see Arraez spend a little time at 1B, especially with how Sano and Kirilloff have both been struggling, to put it mildly. Urshela is better than being relegated to the smaller half of a platoon against LHP, but we need Arraez’s bat in the lineup too. I think we’ll see Arraez a fair amount at DH as well. I was also wondering last night when we pinch hit Arraez for Celestino whether Urshela could slide over to 1B so Arraez could take over 3B with Kirilloff coming in in LF. Time will tell, but I’m extraordinarily frustrated with watching Sano aimlessly swing and miss or hope to take a walk. We have some flexible pieces, so I’m curious to see how flexible they can be.

I was trusting this article: https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sports-columnists/story/2022-03-26/padres-reliever-emilio-pagan-home-runs-manager-bob-melvin Guess your research was better than mine!

Pagan had a 2.77 ERA until his final 10 1/3 innings last year.

We didn't just give up Rogers to slot Paddack into the pen. Paddack has legit stuff -- just a few years ago he looked like the next ace starting pitcher. His stuff hasn't declined, so there's no reason to think he couldn't be our 2nd best starter this year behind Sonny Gray. I would move Bundy to the pen. Whether or not he wants to move to the pen is irrelevant; he's under contract so do what's best for the ballclub, not what's best for Bundy. Why not start Archer, let him go 3-4 innings, and then let Bundy follow him up for 3 innings? It would be a bad move to demote Ober to the bullpen when he looks like a longterm #4 starter, especially when he'll be back in the rotation in a few weeks once one of the other starters gets tired or underperforms (looking at you Mr. Bundy). I like this move for us -- 3 seasons of a controllable starting pitcher with big upside. If Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, SWR, etc. show that they are ready later this season or next, Paddack could always be dealt to another team in need of starting pitching. We also get a freebie bullpen piece who looked good last season outside of his final 10 innings of the year. Pagan had a sub-3.00 ERA prior to the his final 10 innings last year, and if we can just limit his home runs, he could be a quality middle reliever. B+ move for the squad, even though I hate to see Rogers go.

Interesting premise, but I’m not sure how much it’ll matter in a couple of years. As long as you have young, inexpensive, and controllable talent, you’re in a great spot. Whether the players are at AAA or in their 2nd season in the Bigs, they still have a fistful of controllable years and we can either play them or package them for even more, higher-end talent. Also, who knows who the next Jose Miranda is going to be. Last year, he wasn’t on many of our radars, yet we’re now talking about him like he’s of the same ilk as Martin and Lewis.

I agree with the decisions to send Larnach and Miranda down for the time being. Both of them have immense potential, but they need more than periodic playing time, and each of them would be relegated to a redundant bench piece on the fully-healthy 28 man roster. As a lefty corner outfielder, it wouldn’t make much sense to keep Larnach around when Kepler and Kiriloff, two left corner outfielders, are our presumed starters in the corner OF spots. This looks like good news for Rooker, who can take over in LF with Kiriloff sliding to RF for Kepler against tough lefty SPs. With Miranda, he just wouldn’t see much more than spot starts at the beginning of the year, especially since it looks like one of Arraez or Urshela will probably be on the bench on opening day and Miranda looks best suited for 2B/3B just like Arraez.

At this point, it's better than nothing. My only worry is that this is the final move -- I'm still holding out hope for a top-tier starter via trade. But I wonder if teams are asking for the moon to part with their quality SP (aka Arraez, Martin, and Winder, or some similar package, for Montas).

Our team is flush with redundant players, particularly corner outfield/corner infield/DH-type players. To name a few, Kepler, Kiriloff, Sano, Sanchez, Urshela, Rooker, Miranda, Larnach, and, to some extent, Arraez. While we all hope that Larnach and Miranda can get some major league ABs, it may be tough absent an injury.

Yeah, I'm in agreement with you here! One question I've been wondering for a while is where Miranda might get some AB's. He's a bit redundant with many of our players, as he profiles best at 3B, 1B, and DH, same with Arraez, Urshela, Sano, Rooker, and then Sanchez and Larnach at DH. I would love if he forces his way into the lineup, but if he were, it would probably force Sano and/or Sanchez to the bench most days of the week.

That was the toughest choice for me, since I don’t feel like any of Jeffers, Sano, or Sanchez deserve the 5-spot at this point. I chose the less known commodity in Jeffers in the hope that he can grow to deserve it, but I would quibble with slotting in Sano, Sanchez, or Urshela there.

While I understand the love for Arraez in the leadoff spot, I just can't justify him getting the most at bats out of Buxton, Correa, or Polanco. That's why I think slotting him into the 4 spot could make a great deal of sense, as he's a lefty bat who can follow up an at-bat against Correa by working the count and capitalizing on any mistakes the pitcher might make after breathing a sigh of relief that he made it through C4. Here's my ideal lineup, trying to balance handedness (which Rocco always seems to care a lot about) with lineup balance. 1. Buxton, CF (Right) 2. Polanco, 2B (Switch) 3. Correa, SS (Right) 4. Arraez, 3B (Left) 5. Jeffers, C (Right) 6. Kiriloff, LF (Left) 7. Sano, 1B (Right) 8. Kepler, RF (Left) 9. Sanchez, DH (Right) Let me know what you think!

My best guess on the next "Core 6": Byron Buxton, who I think we re-sign next offseason for 5 years, $100 million, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Jhoan Duran, and Jordan Balazovic. I also thought long and hard about putting Luis Arraez in here because of how much I love his bat at the top of the lineup. While re-signing Buxton presents a huge risk because of his injury history, his potential is too high for us to give up on; we play so much better when he is manning CF. Kirilloff looks like he'll be the Twins 1B for the next decade or so, with Larnach taking over RF. I am curious to see where Lewis ends up long term, is he an infielder or an outfielder? I'm extremely excited about this next phase of arms coming up through the system, Duran and Balazovic are the top two, but there is genuine depth within our organization's pitching depth with Canterino, Winder, Sands, Enlow, etc. I am sure that there will be a few surprises/breakouts, maybe someone like Sabato or Wallner will breakout in a big way. I still believe that this current version has enough talent to contend. Even after having watched these first two months of the season, if we could start the season over right now, I would still bet on the Twins making the playoffs. I'm curious to hear thoughts from the rest of you! Comments, critiques?

It felt to me like Baldelli was trying to keep Rogers fresh and ready for the Mariners series, especially since the Mariners lineup has a lot of lefty bats. I think we’ll see a lot more of Rogers used in the role of a typical lefty reliever whose usage is determined more by the matchups than the inning.

I know that Sano usually starts off each season slow, but his performance thus far has definitely been alarming. He looks lost up there at the plate, taking close pitches with 2 strikes and hoping to draw a walk. How is this the same hitter who tore up the league in 2015??