stringer bell

Somewhat surprised that Thorpe wasn't claimed, but everyone is crunched for 40-man room.

Well, he's been an All-Star as often as Correa. I guess that shows that All-Star appearances aren't an exact indication of how good a player is. I see he had thoracic outlet surgery, same as Phil Hughes. How many pitchers have recovered and thrived after such a surgery? Better to have someone than no one, but I have my doubt how well he will do. I'm guessing they thought he has more in the tank than Cueto. I am wondering who gets taken off the 40-man roster to make room for Archer.

Stolen bases are overrated, but speed is not (IMHO). Arraez should be the starting 3B most often against RH pitching. Kirilloff should be in almost every day. Sanó and Sánchez are lousy defensive players, so they should DH most often.

Palacios seemed to take a quantum leap last season, so if he were to do the same thing this season…… maybe he could be an impact major leaguer. Someone may have mentioned this before, but I googled Palacios and he was listed at 6-0 and 145 pounds. I am not going to win a lot of prizes guessing weights, but I’m guessing he is north of 180 now. It points out the pitfalls of signing teenagers—they physically mature so differently and unpredictably. For every Nick Gordon, there’s a Miguel Sanó.

Maybe in 2023. Arraez and Martin both look like top of the order guys to me and there is a pretty good chance that Martin will make his debut this year.

I was thinking the same thing. Correa and Buxton could be two of the very best players in all of baseball and either could exceed 7 or even 8 WAR.

If the Twins carry only three outfielders plus Kirilloff, I think Larnach wins out. He homered again today (no. 2) and he would be in line for quite a few starts in left when Sánchez catches. Celestino profiles better as a backup OF, but if Larnach is given more than a couple starts a week, I’d prefer to see him in the lineup.

After the lockout, big trades and a huge free agent signing (who knew Joe Smith would be available?), the Twins are zeroing in on Opening Day 2022. They will carry 28 players for the month of April, allowing additional ramping up for pitchers. I don't claim to all-knowing, but I have listened to and watched Twins baseball since Calvin moved the team to Met Stadium. The roster I'm predicting will include 15 pitchers, about as many as the Twins used in some full seasons in the 60s. Okay, here goes: PITCHERS: 15--Five starters, three openers/multi-inning, seven bullpen. Starters--Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder. Comment: There is still a decent chance that the Twins will add a rotation piece either by trade or free agency. I hope they do. This would appear to be the year that a pipeline to the majors is established with prospects graduating to fill rotation spots long-term. Openers/Multi-inning relievers--Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe, Jhoan Duran. Comment: This is the group impacted positively by the expanded rosters. All three have been primarily starters since coming to the Twins organization. Due to ineffectiveness and a closing window, Jax and Thorpe have been designated relievers (Thorpe is also out of options) and Duran is coming back from a season where he logged less than 20 innings. Duran is a top prospect who might have 2022 as a bullpen year and then return in 2023 as a starter or he may become a full-time reliever now for the balance of his career. Bullpen--Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Taylor Rogers. Comment: Cotton and Romero are pure guesses for two spots in the bullpen. Cody Stashak and Jovani Moran are also candidates among the rostered pitchers. A non-roster guy or two could be a candidate to take a spot, but the Twins have a stacked 40-man roster for now. In particular I've liked what I've seen out of Juan Minaya since midsummer of 2021. Barring injury, at some point in 2022 he will be pitching for the Twins. I just don't think he will be there on Opening Day. CATCHERS: 3-Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez, Jose Godoy. Comment: Godoy makes the club as a third catcher because I think Gary Sanchez will be used fairly often as a DH. Rocco doesn't overuse catchers, he'll basically alternate Jeffers and Sanchez behind the plate, but if Sanchez is DHing as much as 25% of the time, having a third catcher would make sense. Godoy appears to be functional, but not a candidate for everyday play. INFIELDERS: 6-Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Gio Urshela. Comment: Top prospect Jose Miranda doesn't make it here, although after last year's breakout, he really should. I've listed Kirilloff as an outfielder, he'll also get a lot of time in the infield. Gordon might log some time in the outfield as well. Four players at second, short and third--Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Urshela--should cover almost all the starts leaving Gordon without much playing time. Sano will DH a considerable amount. OUTFIELDERS: 4--Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler. Comment: Brent Rooker misses the cut here in my estimation due to his lack of flexibility and fielding deficiencies. Larnach is the better defender and hits left handed. If the Twins are using Sano at DH (and Kirilloff at first) it opens considerable playing time for Larnach in left field. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the club pick up a right handed outfielder, who can run and play defense to add to the Opening Day roster.

Should the Twins look for a veteran to fill the fifth spot? With what is left on free agent market, I don't think it is a considerable upgrade. So IMHO the question becomes what is the best for the player? I don't think Winder would be damaged beyond repair if he was sent down after struggling. Does he give the team a better chance to win than anyone else? I don't know, but I certainly could be convinced that he is the best option. The Twins do have a lot of near-ready talent in the upper minors. They will probably have to cull the herd a bit which probably gives them impetus to trade prospects for an established starter. I can endorse such a move, but what the current front office hasn't done is choose the right people to let go. They will have lots of guys to plug in to try and stick in the rotation.

I think Celestino would be fine if Buxton has a disabling injury. The more time before this happens, the better. Unless the Twins make a trade of prospects for player, they are going to have 40-man issues I think.

Old people unite! ?

Nothing unexpected. My question would not only be where Martin will be playing, but what position he will play, particularly since there are other options at AA and AAA.

Hasn't it been determined there will be 28 to start the season? That was the announcement that accompanied the "ghost runner" news.

Correct. Also, defensive metrics continue to be inconsistent. DRS and OAA seem to grade players far differently. Throwing arms are also tough to grade, I think. Throwing remains Polanco's biggest defensive problem. He isn't consistently accurate and while second doesn't expose lower arm strength as much, that also has been a problem for Jorge. Jeffers uses the knee-down catching style and it seems to open the door for stolen bases and also makes some lateral movements more difficult. I do think he's a pretty good receiver and do hope that he get the lion's share of work behind the plate. Buxton and Correa are premium defenders at the two most crucial defensive positions in fair territory.

Thanks for the report. I'm glad to hear information about players. I sat next to Tonkin when he was in the Twins organization at a minor league exhibition game in Fort Myers. He had been sent down the day before and wasn't very talkative, to say the least. Big guy (6'7"). Do players still get hard feelings when going through arbitration? It looks like the Twins went slightly above the midpoint for both Sanchez and Arraez. I'm guessing either the players settle or the Twins win if they go all the way through the process.

I will watch with interest to see the substitution pattern at second and short. Does Polanco move over to short if Correa is out? Does Arraez get time at second if Polanco is out or DHing?

I don't think Nick Gordon is a candidate to be a regular in left field. First of all, in 200+ plate appearances last year, his WAR was .2. Secondly, he wasn't rated that high defensively in left (SSS). To keep Kirilloff at first and Sano in the DH role, it would be ideal for Larnach to step up and perform like he did for the first month in a Twins uni. Having Sano at first and Kirilloff in left hurts the overall defense in both positions.

I know that he hasn't exactly like doing it, but Sano is the logical choice to be the DH on this club. I see that Miggy has lost 25 pounds, good for him and his long-term health, but that still isn't going to make him a good defender anywhere on the diamond. Some guys aren't good fielders and two of them are Rooker and Sano. Kirilloff may be needed in left and right field, but easily his best position is first base. I hope he plays a majority of the games there and that the injury bug doesn't continue to follow him. There are knots in this roster that need to be unraveled. It is my hope that youth and superior defense will be served in unraveling most of those knots.

There is Enlow's spot, but if the Twins sign Cueto, then they'll have to let someone go and Romero does figure to be the one.

From the time they made the Garver trade, it seems that the Twins were convinced that Jeffers is a starting catcher. Despite the low BA, his OPS+ was 83, okay for a catcher and he's 24 years old, the same age as Ben Rortvedt. I don't think Jeffers' defense is outstanding, but he's not bad. The team has lost their depth pieces at catcher and it is crucial that the catchers they have stay healthy.

I don't care if Rooker's speed is average, by every metric I seen he's a lousy outfielder and he doesn't hit enough to overcome that or to be a DH. I agree on Sano. He should be the primary DH. The way that Rocco handles catchers, both will get a lot of starts. I would expect the breakdown is somewhere betweeen 50-50 and 65-35. Depending on how much of that time, Sanchez is behind the plate, he should get some at bats as a DH. I do think the pairing of Jeffers and Sanchez is unfortunate--their strengths and weaknesses as hitters are similar and neither is much of a limitation of limiting base stealing.

What I like about this contract is that Correa should be expected to perform at the highest level for the whole thing, no declining years figured into a long-term contract. What I don't like is that he can walk after a single season, but walk years are often the most productive in a player's career.

Okay, players who are below average defenders: 1) Sanó 2) Sanchez and 3) Kirilloff (LF). Arraez is okay (neutral) at both second and third. Sanó has been the superior hitter to Sanchez and if he’s the primary DH, Kirilloff can play first where he’s above average. Baldelli had a silver slugger catcher in 2019 and played him about 60% of the time (when healthy)), so if Sanchez is the second catcher, he gets 30-40% of games behind the plate. Arraez should platoon at third with Urshela and get some starts at second when Polanco gets a day off or is the DH. A left fielder is needed in this scenario (with Kirilloff also serving there on occasion and also to give Kepler a day off). Hopefully Larnach or someone else steps up.

Sanó at DH for 100 games. Arraez at third, Kirilloff at first. Left field? Sometimes Kirilloff, but Larnach and maybe someone like Garlick against lefties.