stringer bell

Kirilloff and Larnach aren't rookies. I do agree that relying on five guys with less than a year's big league experience makes no sense until you're the '82 Twins or the Orioles, Pirates, or D-backs.

It seems that Lewis has the tools to be a good defensive SS. Some people aren't cut out for it though, although most every infielder that plays professionally started as a shortstop, even Sanó. I would agree that he probably will start in the minors, perhaps at Wichita, next year. It is going to take some time to get up to full speed.

Arraez has quite a bit of value, I think. He does have elite contact skills and is an average defender. I remember listening to Joe Nathan say that if Arraez stayed healthy, he was a candidate for 3000 hits. I know he was speaking to a Twins audience, but that’s a pretty strong endorsement. There probably are 5-10 teams with better 2B, but many clubs would want an on-base machine with three years of team control, and he’s only 24.

I wonder if we could get the OP to give us percentages at various positions. For example, on Lewis, is it 50% CF, 40% SS, or (in his opinion) is it a 90% chance that Royce will be in CF? Same for Martin. Same for Miranda. I am disappointed to see someone as plugged in as Cody sees neither Martin or Lewis as a long-term shortstop. It would be great to plug in one guy for five years at that crucial defensive position. I haven't seen much of either Lewis or Martin firsthand. I did see Lewis take Wheeler deep in an exhibition game in March of 2020, but when ST comes along next year that will be two years ago. What I am reading says that Lewis has superior tools and could develop into a special player. Martin has shown OBP skills and would have a floor of being a solid major league player. Miranda had a monster year at the highest level of minor league ball. Any or all of them could be playing for the Twins next year.

Three things: 1) Ehire Adrianza was (and is) a legitimate shortstop. That factor increases his value greatly. Gordon can't make that claim. 2) Not sure about this, but if Gordon has no options remaining, trying to send him to the minors probably would end his time in Minnesota. 3) Adrianza and Gonzalez are both switch hitters without discernible platoon splits. Gordon hits left handed and isn't a great fit for (limited) platoon duty, especially with Arraez around without a regular postion.

Kirilloff started 30 games in the outfield, 25 at first base, mostly when Sano was on the injured list. Yes, I agree that AK will eventually be a first baseman, but it would make sense for him to log more than a few games with Donaldson, Sano and Garver as DHs and perhaps Garver and Sano as as first base options.

We're dealing with SSS at the major league level, but Garlick hit five homers in 107 PAs, while Rooker connected nine times in 213 PAs. My math says Garlick hits it over the fence more frequently. Garlick would appear to be a better defender and he does have great splits against left handed pitching. He is almost three years older than Rooker. Yeah, I suppose if the choice came down to Garlick and Rooker, I would keep Rooker, but honestly I really don't see much future for either player. I certainly agree that the Twins need a bit more variety in their offense who could create runs by other means than hitting the ball over the fence.

I'm not a fan of Rooker. He has too many holes in his swing and is a poor outfielder. He will be 27 next year, so he's not really a prospect at this point. Finally, he has never hit left handers particularly well and that continued in his 200+ PA audition this year.

I think the keys for both Refsnyder and Coulumbe are surviving a forty man roster. The salary is of little impact, but keeping either of them instead of a minor leaguer with more upside would seem foolish.

I don't think anyone is suggesting moving both Garver and Polanco, I certainly wasn't. What I did say that both players held enough value to get a good return, perhaps enough to give the chance to contend next year, if a lot of other things go right. I looked back at my original post on this topic and it could be interpreted that " a couple of players" were both Polanco and Garver. I didn't intend to infer that. To me, trading a replaceable regular coming off a good year and signing the right free agents along with a lot of other things going right might be enough to get back to contention.

I think the Twins need improvement from the shortstop position on offense, but the defense at short has to be acceptable. Simmons was more than acceptable in the field, but the numbers show how bad he was with the bat. If the brain trust believes either Martin or Lewis can seize short it might make sense to save some money and sign a stopgap. I don’t want to see Simmons with the Twins any more. Considerable capital needs to be expended on a starting pitcher or two (one acquired by trade, one free agent?). Finally, no on Cruz. He’ll be 42 at midseason and he hasn’t torn it up for Tampa. But the real reason he’s no longer a fit is that they have several guys who can rotate as DHs and really can’t afford to carry a DH only IMHO.

To get better fast, the Twins will have to move a couple of players who had good seasons in 2021 (and thus high value). The next consideration is if they are replaceable from within. Polanco and Garver meet those criteria (also perhaps Donaldson). Those are the players to move and get a big return. Arraez would seem to be replaceable as well. He will hit and I don't think his defense is poor. Miranda plays the same positions as Arraez and offers some power potential. My final thought on this topic is in reference to Alex Kirilloff. I do think he will become an All-Star and he might win batting championships. However, he only had a couple hundred plate appearances and he's been dogged by a bad wrist. I think the injury problems take away from labeling him a sure thing and writing his name in the proposed starting lineup in ink. As a first baseman/corner outfielder he has to hit well above average to be a star. I think there's a chance of that, but I don't think we have any guarantees.

I'll start by pointing out that hindsight is 20-20. Particularly among position players, things usually even out in the course of a full year. Baldelli started the season with Donaldson injured in the first inning and a bunch of experienced position players not hitting including Garver, Sanó, Polanco and Kepler, as well as Cave, who due to injuries got a lot of playing time in the crucial first six weeks. Rocco stuck with all of them, which makes sense. Some guys came out of it, a couple namely Kepler and Cave, did not. Simmons was so anemic on offense, that his very good defense was negated by being a black hole at the bottom of the order. On the pitching side, Columé was dreadful, but guys like Duffey, Alcala and Thielbar weren't getting crucial outs. All four of those guys came out of it to a degree, although Columé was barely passable all season as a bullpen arm. In the rotation, Happ and Shoemaker started April with better than acceptable numbers, but both were beyond bad after their first few starts. The expected starting pitcher depth didn't develop as planned--Dobnak got knocked around and was injured, Duran wasn't great in AAA and got injured, Balazavic was injured immediately and inconsistent at Double A and so starts were given to Ober (success!) Barnes, Jax and Albers, none of whom were expected to contribute this year or maybe ever. Canterino, Winder and Enlow were all injured along with the aforementioned Duran so the high ceiling guys did not move up the ladder as anticipated. I think those things were largely out of Baldelli's control. Add in injuries to Buxton, who missed 100 games, and Garver, who missed more than 50, and it can be understood that maybe they wouldn't win the division or make the playoffs. I didn't like some of Rocco's decisions, but he had a roster with no real backup shortstop and bench players who are bat-first and mostly slow. As far as pitching decisions go, I would have liked to see the starters challenged to pitch a sixth or seventh inning more often, but I understand the concern that there isn't much in the tank after facing 18-20 hitters with max-effort fastballs and breaking balls and the possibility of injury does go up at some point. If I am grading the manager, I'd give him a C, which is average. I think the front office deserves a worse mark in providing talent for the major league team.

Both players changed teams at the trade deadline, why didn't you include the entire year for both? If you want to make an argument to bring either player in maybe they should be considered for the same period of time.

I think Refsnyder is a certain drop. He has no minor league options, did not even hit at replacement level, he's no longer considered an infield option and he's 30. Yes, he hit for a couple weeks, but that appears to be an aberration. If the team can sign him to a minor league contract, he could try his luck in St. Paul again and see if the injuries pile up as they did this year. I haven't mentioned Cave either. He's a capable outfielder, but his hit tool seems broken. To be a backup outfielder who would be penciled in for occasional starts on a corner, you have to be somewhat of a threat with the bat and Cave has hit worse than a backup catcher.

Just looking at his Triple A stats, Miranda has the highest batting average, second best OBP, third best slugging and second best OPS. I can't remember a better AAA season for any Twins farmhand.

Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites.

There hasn't been a huge amount of growth in Sano's offensive production through the years. He should be entering the peak of his career, but he's no better than his rookie campaign. Comparing him to the other former top 5 prospect, Buxton has shown notable improvement as a hitter in the last two years. I'm glad he's stayed relatively healthy and he has reached 30 homers for the second time. I just think the ceiling for Sano has diminished. When he came to the majors, I thought Miggy could become much more than he has become.

The Minnesota Twins are completing one of their most disappointing seasons in their history in one week. While they will only win around 70 games, they have major league talent under team control at every position except one--shortstop. Andrelton Simmons was acquired on a one-year deal and has shown himself to be a competent (not all-world) defender and has had a putrid offensive season. The consensus at this site is that he should not and will not return in 2022. By all measures, the 2021 Simmons has been among the worst hitters in MLB. Good luck elsewhere Simba. It didn't work out in Minnesota. Who replaces Simmons as the everyday SS next year? I think the question is interesting. The Twins can go several different directions, including moving Jorge Polanco back to short. I would think that any shortstop decision has to be made with an eye on some of the Twins top prospects. Royce Lewis will miss all of 2021 following knee surgery. Lewis has the potential to be the kind of five-tool star that Byron Buxton has teased us with when he has been healthy. Lewis also has a minor league resume that is considerably short of his potential and there are murmurs that he won't end up as a shortstop. Another top prospect is Austin Martin, obtained in the José Berríos trade, He also has a history at shortstop, but exclusively played outfield for Wichita since he was acquired by the Twins. Martin seems to have a much more refined hit tool than Lewis, with a high OBP and relatively low strikeouts. He hasn't demonstrated big power in the minors, however. Do the Twins believe either of these guys will be their everyday shortstop next year? I really doubt it. Lewis has almost no experience in the high minors and has essentially missed two years of baseball and while it is quite likely that Martin will make his major league debut next season, his most likely position will be outfield. A third minor league option is Wichita's regular shortstop this season, Jermaine Palacios. He has had a power surge and has been a shortstop through his minor league career. Could he make the jump? At least to start 2022, I think all three guys are longshots to even be on the major league roster. Of course, there are two possible candidates on the big league roster. Polanco has almost 500 games played at short, and while he isn't league average with the leather, he is a proven hitter. Nick Gordon has impressed, but despite playing a lot of shortstop in the minors, he's only logged 43 innings at short in this, his rookie year, with the Twins. Again, I have my doubts. However, I think the readiness of a replacement from the organization is the key to determining what type of player the Twins will seek to fill the void at shortstop. If they are convinced that one of their prospects will be an everyday shortstop in the majors by 2023, then the focus would be on more of a stopgap player, perhaps someone who might start the season as a regular, but could evolve into a utility player. If the feeling is that none of the prospects in the high minors can cut it as an everyday shortstop by 2023, then they have to sign someone with a bit more permanence. Signing someone from outside the organization for more than one year also would seem to create a glut of major league players. Sano and Kirilloff at first, Polanco, Arraez and Gordon at second, Donaldson at third with also Arraez capable at the hot corner. Add in that their near-certain Minor League Player of the Year, Jose Miranda, can fill first second and third and there seems to be too many players for the infield and DH positions. One additional thought--while he didn't get much love from Twins fans, I think the Twins missed Ehire Adrianza, or at least someone who could fill the role of Adrianza. Moving Polanco to shortstop whenever Simmons was hit for or had a day off seemed to disrupt the entire infield. Having a true backup shortstop who could fill in at other positions would have been a good thing for the Twins' roster. Having such a player in addition to Adrianza and Gordon might make the position player part of the roster very crowded. The frontline defense for the Twins was pretty good, but it seemed whenever a starter was subbed out, it would be for an inferior defender, sometimes weakening more than one position. I think that there is enough talent on the position player side for the Twins to contend, perhaps as soon as next year. To achieve the dream of contending, they would have to come up with pitching, but the late-season performances of Ryan and Ober offer hope that they might be pieces of the puzzle next year and that the minor leagues could possibly start producing good quality pitching from within the organization. There are decisions to be made. I don't see any clear path to solving the shortstop position problem, but there have to be answers somewhere. Falvey and Levine need to make the right choices in several areas to help bring the club back. Their jobs may depend on the choices they make.

Gordon had another good game. I do think his speed is welcome on a club that, besides Buxton, is full of plodders on the bases and in the field. Garver’s numbers, if projected to a full season, are among the best amongst catchers. Still not a fan of his defense.

As Tom said, the Twins bullpen has gone through a lot of players this year and most likely will again in 2022. They would be well advised to have fewer out of options guys than they have in years past so that they can be moved back and forth to AAA. Of the guys in that category this year, I believe Juan Minaya and Caleb Thielbar performed well enough to be brought back for sure. Duffey and Rogers will be in their last arb year. Alcala looks like he has turned the corner and might even be a closer candidate. The rest of the guys should be interchangeable.

After watching the Twins get nine runners on base with only six outs and score only two runs tonight, I would like to submit offensive inefficiency as something that went wrong. Considering the team OPS, they should have scored more runs, part of that is a lack of team speed and part of that might be lack of execution. My thought was that the team was snakebit—they made crucial mistakes at the worst possible times and were dreadful in game situations, extra innings and shortened doubleheaders. Some of those things have regressed to the mean, but the damage was done.

While it is worth noting that Sanó has struck out a bit less this year (per PA), it is equally important to point out that there has been no overall improvement in his numbers. Apparently, he is what he is—an inconsistent slugger prone to slumps and strikeouts. When he came into the league, I thought he had a chance to be another Frank Thomas, but his profile looks much more like Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis.

As pitching-poor as the Twins are right now, I think he might stay on the roster going in to 2022. There are a number of over-30 pitchers who have had moderate success that the Twins will need to decide on--Minaya, Coulombe, Farrell, Law and Thielbar. They can't and shouldn't keep them all, but two or three of them might help the club in 2022.

So many injuries! Calling Balazovic healthy ignores that he missed about two months of this season. The only player who has been healthy and in the Twins’ system all year is Miranda.