stringer bell

Agree on Celestino. Despite the fast start, and decent defense, he wound up with .5 WAR in 122 games and almost 400 plate appearances. To be fair, he only had 57 days of ML service going into 2022.

I think Mateo would be a "good get" in that he has speed and is a really good defender (+5 Zone Runs, +13 Runs Saved per BBRef). He was a 3 WAR player despite only an 81 OPS+. I would think he'd be the principal shortstop and a lesser fielder (Arraez, Polanco, Miranda) would be the DH on most occasions. Having six regulars for five positions (IF + DH) works in today's game, especially with a couple of the guys hitting lefty.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I wonder if the hand and wrist injuries result from HBPs and if so, with him continuing to get hit it would seem likely that he will continue to deal with wrist and hand injuries. I guess time will tell.

To give ‘em Smalley, we’ll have to throw in three TDers.

I think Martin brings skills to the table that the Twins definitely need. He is more OBP than power and provides base stealing speed. He projects as an above-average glove in the field with versatility and he hits right handed while the Twins have few right handed hitting outfielders. To me, he should have more value to the Twins than for anyone else

He was released, not traded. Apparently that removed the vesting option.

I’m pretty certain that there was a vesting option for Andrus that he didn’t reach. He had been dreadful for years, but did come alive when acquired from Oakland. His body of work doesn’t merit an 8-digit payday, but he still does a good job in the field and was pretty good for the White Sox.

Three possible first basemen on the 40-man--Arraez, Kirilloff, Miranda--but I like Alex's defense the best at first base. The tool for putting together the blueprint has Arraez as the default, so someone has to actively change that to move him away from first base.

Echoing the comments here, great news about Martin. In the past week, I’ve posted a blog entry about him and his skill set as well as penciled him in on my 2023 blueprint. So yes, I’m pulling hard for him.

Trying to be realistic here. Either the Twins should bring back Carlos Correa or sign a high-profile starting pitcher. Although they have been historically reluctant to spend on pitchers, they have in the last three years made two signings no one saw coming--Donaldson and Correa--and I propose they take the next step and sign an ace-level arm (Carlos Rodon) for five years at $25M per year. In my mind, Omar Narvaez and Ryan Jeffers share the catching position 50-50 and while Luis Arraez is listed as utility, he's an everyday player somewhere, particularly against right handed pitching. I choose Elvis Andrus as the bridge shortstop with Royce Lewis and perhaps Brooks Lee waiting in the wings. I have Austin Martin making a big jump to be a right handed hitting outfield and infield option from Opening Day and the probable center fielder in the event of a disabling injury to Buxton. This would be the last chance for Polanco and Kepler as Twins and honestly it wouldn't surprise me if one or both of them is traded in the off season, although I don't like seeing them moved coming off injury plagued poor seasons. On the pitching side, there seems to be much agreement on the majority of the starting rotation and the back of the bullpen. I added Jovani Moran, who pitched well for the Twins last year and Ronnie Henriquez, who has started or worked multiple innings in relief. Ober is listed as a reliever, but would be a swing man, possibly a sixth starter and filling in when the inevitable injuries occur. Finally, I tacked on an additional $100 or $200K to players who are no longer rookies. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.89M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($0.80M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Elvis Andrus ($6.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.80M) 4th OF: Nick Gordon ($0.80M) Utility: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.00M) SP1: Carlos Rondon ($25.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.90M) SP5: Sonny Gray ($11.99M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.90M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Bailey Ober ($0.80M) RP: Ronnie Henriquez ($0.70M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) Payroll is 10.73% under budget

I like seeing a left handed hitting catcher to share with Jeffers. Also like the idea of adding Puk or someone like him.

Apparently trades are made for both Polanco and Kepler? I think that is within the realm of possibility, but who comes back for them? Additionally, if Larnach and Wallner are your corner OFs, I'm pretty certain Wallner will be in right field with Larnach in left. I don't foresee Lee starting at shortstop on Opening Day, although I wouldn't rule him out from getting the most reps at short this year.

My #1 free agent target for the Twins is Rodon. I don't think the Twins would be interested in Aaron Hicks for about $10M per year unless the Yankees paid his salary. As far as IKF goes, he accumulated 2.9 WAR (per BBRef) despite an 84 OPS+ and will be eligible for arbitration this year. Unless the Yankees non-tender him (doubtful), I don't think the Twins will be interested in IKF in a trade.

Stashak has had multiple injuries and is older. He also has far less upside than Enlow. If the Twins choose only one to protect on the 40-man roster, they really have to go with Enlow. It is obvious that relievers aren't as highly regarded as starters, making it quite possible that the Twins might cut ties with both of these guys.

I'd give MVP to Correa, with Urshela runner-up. Maybe a relief pitcher can and should be considered and Duran's performance merits consideration. I'd place him third with Buxton fourth and Arraez fifth.

The Twins will soon officially have a shortstop vacancy. Carlos Correa has informed the media (and I presume the Twins) that he will opt-out of the second year of his contract. One possibility, Jermaine Palacios, has been DFAed and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have shown no tendency to use in-house options Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon or Gio Urshela as a regular shortstop. Brooks Lee hasn't been with the organization a year out of college and looked pretty rough on defense in the minors. In addition, the Twins have shown a real lack of speed and base running ability. Finally, having a guy who is capable of playing center field in Byron Buxton's absence and filling in at the outfield corners would be ideal. I'm talking about a better hitter than Gilberto Celestino. So, who am I calling on to step up? Austin Martin, of course. The guy was formerly listed as the Twins' top prospect and he played shortstop most of the season in Wichita. Regardless of his ability to play short, he has outfield experience and the requisite speed to cover center field. Moreover, he has profiled with excellent ob=base skills and was among the minor league leaders in stolen bases. Martin has exactly the skills that the club needs to add. Martin will have a chance to show what he has to offer in the Arizona Fall League. Obviously, Martin has a lot of making up to do. He hit and fielded poorly at AA for Wichita. He has slipped down the prospect ratings because of his performance and he hasn't found a power stroke. I don't hold any illusions that it would be a huge surprise for Martin to vault himself into contention for an Opening Day spot particularly as a shortstop. I am saying that he has the particular skills that give him a path for quick advancement to the major leagues. It is all there in front of him. A more likely scenario for Martin would be for him to impress sufficiently that he would be in line for a recall either as an infielder or outfielder at some point during the 2023 season. I will be checking the AFL results in the hope that Austin Martin can restore his prospect status and eventually be a contributor for the Twins.

I believe Andrus didn’t make the vesting option and is an unrestricted free agent.

While I agree with the choice and also think it’s a nice feel-good story, I do want to point out that Gordon faded the end of the year and also, when used in the infield, showed himself to be a below-average fielder there. It could be that he wore out after essentially being a regular the entire second half. His platoon splits also were pretty severe. It could be his role would be as a platoon outfielder going forward.

After considering this for a day, yes the Twins need to upgrade over Kyle Garlick. His age, lack of durability and extreme platoon splits profile him as a RH hitting specialist and the Twins need more than that. The rest of the outfield contingent also presents serious durability issues. In each of the last two years Larnach, Kirilloff and Buxton couldn’t finish the season, Max Kepler has faded in the stretch the last three years and has been impacted by injuries. Mark Contreras and probably Matt Wallner never should have seen a major league field. They need a (near) full-time outfielder and it would be desirable if he had some speed and center field capabilities.

Post-All Star game, Arraez hit .289 with a .326 OBP. His second half OPS+ was 103. I love what Arraez provides, but his overall value this year and going forward is good, but not great. He’s a good player and I commend him for going out at less than 100% and learning a new position. I don’t think he’s untouchable, but it should take a lot to move him.

I wonder if they don't go with Gio at shortstop next year until Lewis/Lee are ready. Gio played a lot of shortstop for the Evil Empire down the stretch last year and was slated to be their starting shortstop until the Twins traded for Urshela and gave them Kiner-Falefa. I really don't like the idea of weakening two spots in the infield defense (third and short) even temporarily, getting both Miranda and Urshela in the lineup is a good plan. That would mean either Arraez or Kirilloff plays first base. Gio had a very good year and stayed on the field. He earned his pay raise and the free agent pickings at third base are pretty meager. The Twins should definitely bring him back for his last arbitration season.

Fulmer has had a decent year, but hasn't been anything special since his trade to Minnesota. The Twins don;t have much history of paying free agent relievers. I doubt they make a serious move for Fulmer unless it is a bargain. Lopez has been a disappointment, although I can see his stuff being very effective. Since he is under team control for next year, I think he comes back and is the principal setup guy, probably getting closing chances when Duran isn't available. Add Thielbar, Jax, Moran and a healthy Alcala and the bullpen is in much better shape at the start of 2023 than it was in 2022.

Smeltzer had over two years of service time going into 2022. It might be close, but I think he also is eligible for arbitration and could be non-tendered or offered a minor league contract a la Jake Cave in 2022.

Aaron Sanchez should be a free agent after this season. He already had over six years of service going into the year. Edit to add: Sanchez was added to the roster today and Megill placed on the IL. It shouldn't make any difference as far as to his impending free agency at the end of the season.

I think the Twins will try to pull the plug on Garlick. I believe he will be arbitration eligible and they will non-tender him. Why cut him loose? He is a specialist in an era of short benches and he suffered three separate disabling injuries. He’ll be 31 before spring training starts and it doesn’t figure that he’ll be healthier or more productive than he was this year. That is not to say that the Twins might not offer him a minor league contract with an opportunity to win a spot this spring. He also still has an option IIRC.