stringer bell

Good health Pablo! I think Skubal will be really good, as well, but López is ahead of him right now.

José Godoy, a catcher who had a minute with the 2022 Twins, signed a minor league deal with the Rangers along with the obligatory invitation to Spring Training. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/rangers-sign-three-to-minor-league-deals.html

The reason it is kind of a big deal is that the team has struggled hitting left handed pitching since at least 2020. There are "regulars" at seven positions and the catchers will split time regardless of who is pitching. Of the left handed hitting "regulars", all showed pronounced platoon splits and last year, so did Willi Castro. Plugging in Farmer and Santana helps things, but Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien all were pretty bad versus lefties last year. Kepler was better, but his lifetime OPS vs. lefties is .141 worse than against right handers. It would be better balance to add one more right handed bat in the outfield. Going forward, it's not a disaster to go with the projected starting lineups, but they remain far better against right handers.

I picked 89 wins last year and came up a bit over. I think the same number is optimistic, but heck, I see green grass outside during the first week of February! Since a year ago, there are probably four new starters in the everyday lineup and the Twins now have a twenty-something ace to lead their rotation. Injuries will happen, unexpected results, both positive and negative are a near certainty. Although there are plenty of question marks, I'll guess high again on win total.

Conventional Wisdom?

Larnach and Miranda can be optioned this year. I would expect both to start their season in St. Paul and both to have chips on their shoulders.

I reluctantly agree with the likely choices of Thompson and Duarte. It seems the club likes both guys and they probably have some hope of getting them through unclaimed. Other choices would be the two out-of-options guys on the edge of the 26-man roster--Nick Gordon and Jordan Balazovic. I don't see either of those guys going unclaimed, Balazovic because of potential and Gordon because of past performance. I wonder if either or both can be traded for similar value with options or for prospects.

Bobby Witt is what Royce Lewis is, but without the injury history, and he's a true shortstop. I would say it is a no-brainer to extend Witt, he's gonna be great as long as he's healthy. I'm not so sure that the Tigers extending a guy who wasn't so highly regarded but raked in the minors is a great move. We shall see. In general, I don't think taking cues from Detroit or KC is the way to go. The Royals have been building and rebuilding since they went to the World Series in '15(?) and the Tigers were dreadful for the last seven years. Both teams have had a lot of Top 5-10 picks in the last decade. Durán has two years of service time, Lewis one-plus, Julien less than one. Maybe after this year, and with more revenue certainty, the Twins will look at locking up some of these guys.

My hope is that Santana starts some of the time versus right handed pitching and most of the time versus left handers, until and unless Alex Kirilloff shows he can hold his own against lefties. Against right handed pitching the DH/1B role (paired with Kirilloff) looks like any of six non-catcher position players could DH with Castro taking a place in the field, the other option being Kirilloff and Santana both in the lineup, one at DH and the other at first. Against lefties, Farmer, Santana and probably Castro get starts with three of four of Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner and Kepler getting days off, maybe only two if Willi continues to struggle against port siders.

To me DeSclafani is a double-edged sword. I don't think his upside is that low. He signed a nice contract three years ago as a middle of the rotation starter. His problem since has been injuries. He only pitched 19 innings in 2022 and less than 100 last year. DeSclafani was very effective for his first six starts (1/3 of his season) and reasonable effective through May (11 starts). I have to believe that his ineffectiveness in his last seven starts (28 ER in 32.1 IP) was the result of injury and he was shut down after July 23rd. Why this is a double edged sword is that it's quite possible the Twins will get minimal innings out of him. I've seen here that he's not yet throwing in the off season, so he really might not provide depth to the rotation at all. The other side of this is, if he gets fully healthy, I think there's a great chance that he'll give the Twins a lot more than Kenta Maeda did last year. Honestly, I think the chances are greater that he is never healthy and thus a non-factor, but there is some hope that he could be a real contributor. Regardless, I don't see him as a Bundy type who is going to throw substandard stuff over the plate and hope that he has great command and good BABIP luck every time out.

To me, the rotation looks pretty good if, and it is a huge if, the top three guys establish themselves this year. It seems the consensus is that López is and will be a #1 pitcher. I really like him too, but another good/great year would move him up to that level among people who aren't cheering for the Twins. The same for Ryan and Ober as above average starters--last year's performance was that, but they need another year to back it up IMHO. If those three can put up the innings and other numbers, then the rotation is pretty good. I also like Paddack to be really good this year, fully healthy and motivated. The #5-#8 spots are not well defined and there's not a ton of upside. My fervent hope is that this group's performance is not what determines success or failure.

They certainly haven't spent the kind of money that a #2 starter would command. They've brought in two older guys still under team control--Topa and Jackson--as an interesting twist in addition to Stewart last year.

The position player side of the house looks well stocked with projectable talent and several young players on the cusp of stardom on the big league roster. I am less certain about pitching.

Maybe I'm missing something, but is there anything to suggest that Camargo is going to be anything but a backup catcher? I know he showed some power last year in AAA, but Andrew Stevenson showed power in St. Paul, too.

So you're saying that from this group (Miranda, Severino, Martin) it should be expected that they should be able to produce what Santana did last year? To me, that is an unknown. For different reasons, there are questions with each of these Twins prospects (I guess prospect isn't the right word for Miranda). I really don't know what to expect from any of them, at least as far as helping the Twins this year. Yes, there is the risk of his taking up valuable roster space much like Logan Morrison (that's just for you Brian). While front offices and managers seldom dwell on mistakes they made, this could be an opportunity to show that performance is required and patience is not infinite, more so now than in 2018.

Farmer appears to be a good guy and he's a capable utility infielder, but for over $6M, he is a luxury. The most important thing for a utility infielder is to be a capable shortstop. At his age (34 in August) Farmer doesn't have nearly average range for a shortstop. The Twins have three other options if Correa would go down short term or long term. Lee would replace CC4 in the event of a disabling injury, while both Willi Castro and Royce Lewis could fill in if Carlos is out for a few games. This is no rap on Farmer, but I don't know of a single team that would consider acquiring him to be a regular infielder at this point.

It's not my intention to defend the previous poster, but I do notice you didn't have Taylor, Solano and Farmer among the "washed up veterans" you listed. Also, I'll point out that Joey Gallo played last year at age 29, considered a prime year for MLB ballplayers. Bringing in veterans "that are good" costs money and prospects, for example Sonny Gray. Loading a team, and particularly a bench, with young players is a poor strategy. The Twins opted in 2023 to bring in Farmer, Taylor, Solano and Gallo as depth pieces although Gallo became the starting first baseman when Kirilloff wasn't ready to go. This year, they've brought in Carlos Santana at less than half the salary for a similar role. I don't know if Wallner would have been successful out of the gate as a regular outfielder, maybe or maybe not, but he would appear to be the only rookie that could have/should have been promoted earlier. Mid market teams do need to develop their young talent and get value when they trade or sign free agents. I agree that too many 30-plus vets on a team can hurt in the long term. However, I don't want to see another time where a minor league outfield (Cave, Celestino, Contreras with Gordon at second base) is trying to win a division. A proper mix of youth and experience is necessary to win in the regular season and compete in the post season.

Carlos Santana was a solid player for a full decade for the Cleveland franchise. With Cleveland being in Minnesota's division, Twins fans saw plenty of Santana from 2010 to 2020. Santana has moved around a lot since 2020, playing for the Royals, Pirates, Mariners and Brewers and will turn 38 in two months. His stats have been debated on other threads here at Twins Daily, with (perhaps) the consensus being that he hasn't been really good since 2019, but that he adds value because he's a good defender at first base and a switch hitter with stronger hitting as a right handed batter. In glancing at Santana's stat line for 2023, two numbers hit me as significant and way better than expected. According to BBRef Santana compiled 2.7 WAR--that number would have been better than all Twins position players except Ryan Jeffers and Max Kepler--and the other number was 86 RBI. While some dismiss RBI as purely an opportunity stat, only the recently departed Jorge Polanco has exceeded that number since the Bomba Squad year of 2019. No Twin has driven in more than 66 runs in the past two years. I am old school enough to be impressed by 86 RBI despite a .240 average and middling .749 OPS. So how did Santana get to 2.7 (BBRef) WAR? It appears that defense plays an oversized role. BBRef credits Santana with 11 runs above average defensively in 2023, which accounts for all of his runs above average. Now what about those RBI? I checked Santana's splits and saw several interesting numbers--he had opportunity, he hit almost exclusively in the #3 and #4 spots in the order (145 out of 147 games), He produced well in RBI situations. Santana had a .899 OPS with runners in scoring position, compared to a pedestrian .699 with no one in scoring position. He got people home from third base--10 for 34 with 23 RBI with less than two outs and 6 for 18 with 9 RBI with two outs. Santana's best inning for hitting was the 8th--in 53 plate appearances, he hit .370 with a 1.062 OPS. In the close and late stat, Carlos hit .316 with a .929 OPS and finally with two outs and runners in scoring position Santana put up a .834 OPS. Carlos Santana's tank might be a lot closer to "E" than "F", but if he can duplicate his performance from last year, he will be worth the roster spot and the $5.25M that he is owed. I honestly hope he isn't used as much as he was in 2023, but his availability and durability have been constants in his long career. That is enhanced by his switch hitting. To me, he fits the profile of "reliable veteran". Add in that Santana has been considered a positive presence in the clubhouse and was traded for by contending clubs in each of the last two years (each made the playoffs), I think his signing might be better than the reaction it has generated.

Add Michael A Taylor for somewhere between $6M and $8M and call it a day. Using Taylor in center when Buxton is unavailable and in left vs. lefties would enhance the offense enough to justify the price tag. I think that the Twins are only going to acquire another starting pitcher by trading prospects from their farm system, which IMHO limits the choices to non-contenders. Pitchers are too darned volatile to rigidly class as #1, #2 etc. Who had Nathan Eovoldi as the ace that put Texas over the top? Sonny Gray was great in 2023, but will he be near as good in 2024? We've had surprise Cy Young winners almost as often as not. The true aces are few and far between and most likely all going into the Hall of Fame. Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander in the last generation. Cole and Wheeler probably today. It wouldn't surprise me if a year from now Luzardo was considered an ace, but it wouldn't surprise me if he moved back down lists where he became available and affordable. I have a hard time thinking the Twins should throw money at Montgomery and/or Snell.

Good to hear a positive report about Smooth's time in Milwaukee. He is used to playing every day, but I think the role for him with the Twins would be less than every day play unless Kirilloff is injured. I do hope Santana is a positive clubhouse presence, which would make up somewhat for losing Polanco.

Nah. Farmer's not that good of a hitter to play a corner OF, even against left handed pitching. He's decent at second and third, but his range at short is suspect. I would think range in the outfield would be a real issue.

Adding what the Twins will pay both Topa and DeSclafani yields a net of $5.25M in the Polanco transaction. So, 100% of that money was used in signing Santana. If the Twins decide their self-imposed limit is on the high end of estimates ($140M) there would be plenty of room to add another player or take on the salary of one of many mid-tier pitchers. If the Twins want to add a position player, presumably on a one-year deal, Michael A Taylor looks like a great fit. Last year's split versus left handed pitching was excellent (.914 OPS) and we all know he is a fine defensive outfielder who could fill for Buxton absences. Kiké hasn't been good for a couple of years and if he isn't a decent center field option there is no reason to consider him.

A year later, the Twins had three outfielders beat Nick's number versus right handed pitching (Castro .803, Wallner .970 and Kepler .832). Injuries do happen and perhaps Gordon will get opportunities, but there is no more guarantee that he will duplicate that .793 OPS than any of the three from 2023. I don't see him as useful on the 2024 team as it is constructed right now.

Nit pick,--I would consider Castro the super-utility player and Gordon the fourth outfielder. If the Twins salary budget is $125M-$140M with the reduced Bally money, they do have somewhere around $5M-$15M to spend. It would be tight getting Soler for that money, but adding Michael A Taylor or the salary of a decent pitcher is possible. Where and when does Gordon play? I don't see much room unless he is the primary sub for Buxton (I'd prefer Castro).

Texas, defending a World Series victory, probably won't trade anyone, even if they sign Montgomery. The have deGrom and Scherzer coming back from injuries and probably not available until midseason. The Angels, OTOH, would be more likely to build their farm system and cashier one of their pitchers. Tyler Anderson is essentially what DeSclafani was a year ago, similar contract, really good two years ago. The Twins would have to pay less in prospects to acquire Anderson. Patrick Sandoval is 26 and in his arb years. He was also very good in 2022. The third lefty starter for the Angels is Reid Detmers. He is pre-arb so his salary is the minimum, but given that he has four years of team control remaining and struck out more than a hitter per inning, he would be very expensive, in terms of prospects, to acquire. If the Twins could get Detmers without losing any of their top 5 prospects, I would hope they would do it. Actually, I'd say the same for Sandoval.