stringer bell

I think I'll just wait to check in on Friday.

Yes, he is slump prone. It seems the hot streaks are shorter and the slumps are longer the last two years. I do think last year's struggles were exacerbated by injuries, but if he's healthy enough to play a good center field, I don't think injuries are the real cause.

OMG, here we go.

It helps to hit 3-1 when it should be 2-2.

Still hitting 1.000

You mean tonight and on Thursday, correct?

A lot to like about the lineup—younger players Kirilloff, Larnach and Miranda all in with Santana on the bench. Miranda gets first base, AK in left and Larnach DH. Castro gets his first start at second. This was an opportunity to play Jeffers at catcher in consecutive games, but no.

I certainly agree that Cleveland will regress. Besides things noted here earlier, they have run into clubs when they've been crippled by injuries (Boston, Houston). I don't think Cleveland is particularly deep and I don't think their rotation is dominating. That said, when thing go right for a long while, sometimes they just continue to go right.

I think Emma and Walker are answers. Two of the top three prospects and neither are college bats, so if they arrive at 21-22 that will be a fast advance.

The Twins play their 60th game tonight in New York and currently have a record of 33-26, good enough for third place in the AL Central, but currently on pace for a wild card berth in the playoffs. While the record is about what was expected at the start of the year, being in third place in the Central and trailing the leader by six games is disappointing and unexpected. The disappointment is enhanced by an 0-5 record against division-leading Cleveland, which accounts for most of their deficit in the standings. How did we get here? Let's look at the components. Hitting--The Twins are 12th in runs per game and have featured an inconsistent offense. When they started 7-13, the offense was historically bad, hitting well below .200 as a team and trailing all teams in runs scored. Their 12-game winning streak righted the ship statistically and moved them above average in key team stats, runs scored, OPS, homers and team batting average. Individual leaders are Ryan Jeffers, who has hit 13 homers and has a slugging percentage over .500 and Max Kepler, who came back hot from injury and has posted a .796 OPS for the season. The Twins are middle of the pack in home runs (64) after finishing tied for first in the AL in that category last year. Injuries and strict platooning have again limited individual numbers. with only two players (both switch hitters) having reached 200 plate appearances thus far. Pitching--The numbers say the pitching has taken a step back. The Twins rank 18th in team ERA and 14th in runs allowed per game. This comes despite the staff striking out hitters at the second highest rate per inning pitched and the second lowest walk rate in MLB. The long ball has been a culprit, they have allowed the fourth most home runs. Breaking it down further, the starting staff has delivered a good number of well-pitched games, but there have been more stinkers than last year and the top four all are vulnerable to long balls (44 allowed in 257 innings), The bullpen was wracked by injuries early and is still missing a couple of high-leverage arms. Their performance has been uneven, but the current group seems to have hit their stride as of late. Closer Jhoan Durán missed the first month of the season and seems to have (at least temporarily) lost some velocity. Defense--Measured by errors, this is one of the top teams in baseball. The team has been charged with only 23 errors in 59 games. We all know that is not the true measure of team defense--the team has run out some poor defenders and several with limited range. This was most in evidence when former platinum glove winners Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa were on the shelf. In general, the Twins are pretty sound defensively, but in their bad stretches, mental errors and weak throwing arms showed up at the worst times. One metric--outs above average is pretty kind to the Twins, but zone ratings send another message. Overall, I'd rate the Twins defense as decent, but not flashy (except for Correa and Buxton). Performance factors that have come to light since Opening Day: Injuries--As noted earlier, the projected Twins' bullpen was hit by an epidemic of injury just before the season started. Four relievers were on the IL on Opening Day and two more have been added since. Three of the injured guys from the start of the season are back, so there is progress. On the position player side, Royce Lewis has missed all but a couple innings of the season so far. He may or may not be the Twins' best player. He is certainly exciting and charismatic. Other key guys--Buxton, Correa, Kepler--have missed time, but are back. The Twins haven't had to use the IL in almost a month, a welcome respite, but after all the April injuries, it seems to have balanced out. Reinforcements--Two former top prospects (Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach), who had fallen off the roster due to injury and substandard performance, were given another chance due to injury. Both have thrived. Larnach has an .803 OPS in over 100 plate appearances, while Miranda has put together a .780 OPS and played acceptable third base in Lewis' absence. Austin Martin also got his first taste of the major leagues. His results were mixed, probably highlighted by poor defense as an outfielder, despite the tools to be better than that. The bullpen has churned through several players, with mixed results. Newcomers Josh Staumont and Diego Castillo are currently in the bullpen and so far have looked good. Jorge Alcalá looks like his best self currently. What lies ahead? While the Twins currently sit in position to make the playoffs, winning the Central would be the preferred way to advance in postseason. With over 100 games remaining, there is plenty of time to overtake both Cleveland and Kansas City. It will take much better performance against the Guardians and continued winning baseball against the Royals. Some key numbers are the home run disparity--last year the Twins hit 39 more homers than their opponents. This year they are at -10. Another stat to check is strikeout disparity--last year the Twins set the all-time record with 1654 strikeouts, they struck out 1560 (tops in the AL) opponents for a differential of -94 Ks. This year they have fanned 504 times (12th in MLB), while opponents have whiffed 532 times, a plus differential. The team has done well in close games (11-4 in one-run games) and 1-0 in extra innings. They have had winning month in April and May and a winning record on the road (17-13). They are only seven games over .500 in part because of underwhelming veteran performance by newcomers Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana and holdovers Kyle Farmer and Christian Vázquez. The starting rotation has been healthy, but needs to be more consistent in the remainder of the season and it is likely that some current minor leaguers will make an impact on the balance of the schedule. For those of you to have the patience to read this long post, I hope you comment and add your own opinions. Even if you haven't read it all, make a comment on what you've seen or heard from the Twins in the first two months.

(I could have sworn I responded to this already) Anyway, if a right hander starts, one of Jeffers, Santana, Miranda/Lewis should be on the bench to start the game. If Kirilloff is starting a game at first base, the "handcuff"(your term) would be Santana. Batting for Larnach or Kirilloff, when a lefty enters, should be one of those guys, not Kyle Farmer. To me, it is a coin flip between Margot and Farmer as to who would get at bats when Buxton is rested or used as the DH. The same coin flip applies when a righty hitter bats for the left fielder--use Margot as the PH/LF or use Farmer and move Willi to left field. Farmer has pinch hit 11 times this year and played second base in 10 of them, indicating he hit for Julien and stayed in the game. In the eleventh PH he didn't play in the field. I think the reduction in playing time from him not pinch hitting for the starting second baseman will cost him more time on the field than he will gain from playing when Buxton/Correa are not on the field.

The one warning sign that he might be optioned was his position in the batting order of late. Larnach and Kirilloff have hit higher in the order, so that might have been an indication. By the same token, I expect the other guys in jeopardy of losing their current major league job (Kirilloff, Margot, Farmer) will get similar clues in the coming weeks.

The big difference here is that Castro is a switch hitter and will never be hit for by Kyle Farmer. Farmer will get his starts against lefty pitching and be hit for as soon as a right hander enters. When a left hander does enter the game, I don't think Farmer is the first choice to hit for Larnach or Kirilloff and I don't think any right handed hitter has hit for Kepler. There may be an occasion or two when Farmer starts because Buxton is either the DH or getting a day off, but they could go with the (slightly) better hitting of Margot in center field and keep Castro at second. With Correa having taken a day off on Sunday, I doubt he will have more than one day off in the coming weeks. I think it is only fair to say that projecting usage should be limited to a week or two. Injuries or a hot spell could change the equation, as it has for Jose Miranda.

Among those that survived this time, who is #1 on the demotion/DFA list? IMHO, the least safe player is Alex Kirilloff. That .220 average isn't good enough and he has less power than Trevor Larnach. The next guy is Kyle Farmer. His role is already diminished this year (and if he's only a platoon 2B, he can easily be replaced. #3 is Margot. He has had an uptick, but still is well below average as a hitter with a quite limited role.

I really doubt it will come to that. The Twins have had a run of good health and it never lasts. Injuries are on the horizon and probably multiple injuries at similar positions. That is just the way it goes. The Twins have Martin, Lee (soon), Wallner and now Julien at St. Paul. It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

I don't see Farmer playing more as a result of Lewis returning. He won't pinch hit and enter games for Castro, as he has for Julien. The first pinch hitter for Larnach would likely be Margot, with Castro staying at second base. Except for concerns about Lewis' health, I don't think there's a rationale to bring Farmer in to replace Royce (with Castro moving to third) as they have done with Miranda.

I don't follow the Brewers much (I know you're involved with a similar site covering them), but I would think there is some controversy keeping Chourio in the majors. He has a .602 OPS and negative WAR. The Tigers made a spot for Colt Keith and his OPS is .597. Sometimes young guys aren't ready although they have worlds of talent. Edit to add: Both of the guys I mentioned were given major league extensions before they played in their first major league game. It may also be why they are still in the majors right now.

The hitting numbers are awful in total and finding a slice where they're acceptable doesn't change the fact that he has an OPS of .513 about 38% of the way through the entire season. Farmer has made the most of his limited tools in his career, but a loss of even a little bat speed and losing half a step in the field could be the difference between acceptable and unacceptable. I think Father Time is winning the battle with Kyle's skill set.

Castro probably starts in the OF against lefties and moves to second when Farmer gets pinch-hit for.

Willi vs. right handed pitching. Probably Farmer against southpaws. One of Lewis, Miranda, Santana, Kirilloff or Larnach will sit against righties.

$6M guaranteed salary, RH bat, and versatility (3B, 2B & SS). I agree that Farmer should have been shown the door and I think he doesn’t stay if the Twins think Lee is ready.

I’m pretty surprised that it is Julien. I presume we’ll get a lot of Willi at second base and that Miranda will get plate appearances at first, third and DH.

Given the Twins recent history trading for and signing relief pitchers, I’d say no.

What is the Twins pitchers’ ERA in the first inning. It seems like everyone, except for SWR, gives up a disproportionate number of dingers in the first inning.

Willi has been terrific for the Twins. I would argue he was better across the board last year. His defense has been less steady and he’s been asked to play a lot more SS and CF. His base running hasn’t been as dynamic. On the plus side, he’s hit well from both sides of the plate and he’s played in every game, while leading the team in plate appearances. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets much more time at second base once Lewis returns.