stringer bell
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Everything posted by stringer bell
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If the Twins don't acquire major league talent by trade or free agency, one of Helman, Martin or Keirsey will probably start the season in St. Paul and would be next man up. Rodriguez might also be in consideration for promotion pretty early in the season, but he's another left handed hitter. -
So maybe Keirsey is ideal as Buxton's backup. We do know that Buxton won't play every day, even if healthy. Having a guy (Keirsey) who you don't worry about rusting on the bench to fill in for the 20% of games when Buck is rested is good. Plus Keirsey can pinch run and be used as a defensive replacement for one of the many slow guys who will be starting for the Twins.
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Regrettably, the reverse is also true. Some guys are Triple A All-Stars and really can't cut it in the majors. Andrew Stevenson put up similar numbers to Keirsey in 2023 and got a few chances with the Twins late. He was a Triple A star but a no-power, weak bat center fielder. In 2022, former overall #1 pick Tim Beckham was great in St. Paul, but lousy with the Twins (SSS) and I think he's out of baseball. The Twins minor league staff has two major jobs--develop talent and identify players that can help the big club. If they're half-hearted about promoting someone like Keirsey or Helman, I think it indicates doubt that they believe their abilities will carry over on the highest level. The fact that both of these guys are "old prospects" makes me even more skeptical. I'm a Twins fan and want them to do well, so I'll be pulling for both of those guys, but I will be surprised if either is a major contributor to a good Twins team.
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- austin hays
- byron buxton
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I'm a bit of a skeptic about Keirsey, but I think he'll get his chance this year. Unless the Twins add a center field capable big league outfielder, he is the obvious choice. If the Twins analyze last year, a key player (Willi Castro) wore down in large part because he spent too much time in the highest spectrum defensive positions (center field and shortstop), so in 2025, someone else should be the primary backup to the oft-injured Buxton. Austin Martin is another option, but his defense was poor and his offense was ordinary. Keirsey is clearly the best in-house option, at least for now.
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Why would non-clutch stats be inflated? If a team has lousy defense shouldn't that show up equally during the high and low leverage stats? All the AL Central teams played the White Sox 13 times--perhaps that is how the top three pitchers in the AL were from the Central.
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To tag on to Bean’s comment, I’m pretty sure the Twins’ ground ball percentage was extremely low. Add that to a low number of base runners on base, especially first base, the Twins had far fewer double play opportunities than most, if not all, other teams. That doesn’t mean they were good at turning two, but explains at least part of the disparity compared to other teams.
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I'd put one finger on the inherited runners stat for sure. In that regard the Twins were awful. The defense got worse as the year went on in large part because of the extended absence of Kepler, Buxton and especially Correa. Two rookies (Martin and Lee) didn't show out as good gloves Castro was put in places where he was stretched. Some of this is the variation from year to year. Sometimes poorly hit balls fall in and rockets are caught. It seemed to me that was the case for the Twins in 2024. Another thought is that pitching out of the stretch might have diminished effectiveness for some, although many deliveries nowadays are almost the same whether runners are on base or not.
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Getting a bit off the topic but I'm compelled to say that Arraez is an absolute unicorn, much rarer than Matty Alou. He makes contact and avoids strikeouts far and away better than any of his peers. Last year his value was limited because he clogged the bases, didn't hit for power and played DH (mostly) and significantly his walk rate plummeted to 3.6%, far below average and much lower than his previous seasons.
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Hence the comparisons (in that specific area) to Julien.
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Thanks for the awesome article. Royce has been figuratively knocked down, now he must dust himself off and adjust. I think he will, but this is another player who needs to prove something at this point in time.
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Low bar.
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The size and swing remind me of Kepler. I would hope that would be his floor. I, too, would not want him compared to Arraez. Starting a 20-year old in Wichita is aggressive enough for me. I hope he hits St. Paul in May and is in consideration for promotion to the majors by the end of the season.
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The last two posts combined pretty much guarantee a productive healthy Rodriguez will debut next year. There is room on the present roster for a center field capable left handed hitter, actually I’d say there is need for such a player. Given his sparse resumé in the upper minors, there is also justification to start him in the minors, maybe even at Wichita. Given the Twins roster flexibility, an injury or ineffectiveness from any of a whole host of players should give the opportunity to promote the #2 prospect. If healthy, I expect Emmanuel Rodriguez to be very good very soon. I hope it is as soon as I’m playing golf in Minnesota.
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Agree to disagree. I do think there is a difference between Chourio and Merrill and Rodriguez and I think Rodriguez' problem with making contact, especially with off-speed, is a bigger deficiency than either Merrill or Chourio was facing, enough so that a hundred or two hundred plate appearances at AAA would be beneficial. We shall see.
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That's a factor as well. Team control is a big deal.
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I want to comment about outfield defense first. With Buxton in center, the Twins are fine with Larnach and Wallner in the corners IMHO. Larnach has always been an okay outfielder but without great tools--speed and arm--but if healthy he's average to a little above average. Wallner has improved and with a chance to be full-time in right field, I think he'll be better than okay. He has better than average speed and a plus-plus throwing arm. Wallner has improved markedly on defense in the year plus he's been a major league player. With a guy like Buxton between them, their relative lack of range is diminished. I do think Rodriguez will improve the D when he is promoted, but I would expect some mistakes due to inexperience in his first year. I brought up platooning and I am hoping for at least the Kepler model, where Max wasn't pinch-hit for but often (almost always in 2024) he didn't start against left handed starters. Part of that was because of Kepler's superior defense compared to his right handed platoon mate, which should be the case for Rodriguez and Jenkins when he arrives. As to comparisons with Chourio and Merrill, I don't know if Emma's pedigree is in that range. IMHO, Rodriguez has more deficiencies in his game to handle (if not master) and so does need more seasoning. As I said, if he blows everyone away in the spring, I think the Twins could take him north, but I don't think that is the plan at this time.
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Don’t want to put too much of a damper on a high prospect, but I remember several posters asserting Lee’s readiness. Rodriguez is younger and doesn’t have even a half season’s worth of PAs above Class A. Unless he’s absolutely blows the doors off this spring he probably will (and should) go to the minors. I think performance will dictate how soon he’s promoted and I hope he gets it right on his first try in the majors.
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Rodriguez is supposed to be a big-time prospect, the kind you insert and and expect to thrive like Royce Lewis. Can Baldelli resist the urge to strictly platoon him when he arrives with the big club? I'm not a Rocco hater, but if the Twins are going to bring up their best hitting prospects, I don't think they should be protected to the extreme. The #1 prospect is also a left handed hitter with even a better pedigree than Emma. It would be a shame to have both become platoon options.
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Good article. Johan deserves a long look for sure. I hope he makes it. Nathan is my all-time favorite Twins pitcher. He was great in the regular season for a long time. I think the anti-reliever bias will doom his hopes for the Hall unfortunately. I'll add that the Hall of Fame has been extraordinarily kind to Twins players recently. Jack Morris (only a Twin for one year, I know), Tony-O and Kaat all have gotten in with less than slam dunk cases to be admitted and Mauer getting in on the first try was also a stretch.
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Personally, I'm resigned to the reality that trading Vázquez will not improve the club in 2025. I expect the Twins to roll with Jeffers/Vázquez for a third straight season. It is quite apparent that there is a dearth of talent in the catching position in the Twins system and acquiring someone who would project to contribute in 2026 and beyond should be a high priority. Maybe it is Rushing, maybe it is someone else.
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- ryan jeffers
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I think front offices are caught up in the "high floor" stuff. Taking players like Margot and Farmer as examples of this in that they know "he can't be really bad" because the player is an experienced veteran. Then comes the first half of the 2024 for both of these players--near total disaster. Both rallied enough that they weren't DFA'd but either season could have been replaced by a minimum salary rookie with some potential to be better.
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Anyone remember last season? Just before Opening Day, Thielbar, Durán and Topa all went on the IL. Expecting everyone to be healthy on Opening Day is a stretch IMHO. They'll need all of the guys on the 40-man roster and probably more. I can't imagine a healthy Topa will be sent to St. Paul. He's experienced success for a whole season, much in high leverage, and none of the other guys have beyond Jax and Durán. Varland is probably a lock to convert to the BP and might be a late-inning option. The team is definitely lacking from the left side, both in the rotation and the bullpen. Trading or adding a lefty to the staff to add a bit more balance makes sense.
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- michael tonkin
- justin topa
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This is what payroll restrictions are doing. Shopping at the Dollar Store stinks, but the payroll of the 37 on the roster eats all of the budget.
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Dozier is one of my all-time favorites. He made the absolute most of his talents and became a slugger. Dozier didn't hit many tape-measure shots, but was able to learn how to pull the ball and get it in the lower deck in left field. He wasn't blessed with a strong arm, so the move to second was needed. He had enough range to be good at second and enough speed to take extra bases and steal a few bags. He contributed in all facets of the game. I met Brian in the spring when he had converted to second base and he was polite and humble. He became a favorite of mine from that point.
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- brian dozier
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I think I saw that Topa is getting $1.225M this season with a buyout of $515K on a $2M club option. Much like the Alcalá contract of '24, he is a very affordable option for 2026 if he is healthy for the majority of the season. The signings of Stewart and Topa for a little over $2M is good business and if between the two they are healthy for 160 to 180 games that is a win over all. Given their injury histories, expecting either one to be healthy for the whole season is wishful thinking, but expecting a season or so out of the combination is more realistic.
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- willi castro
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