stringer bell

I share Ash's caution. Leases are broken all the time and absentee ownership could be worse than what the team has now. I wasn't loving the direction the current ownership was pointing, but I don't think they have been the worst owners in MLB by a long shot.

Assuming pretty much status quo (few added, expired contracts subtracted), the Twins need their three top right handed hitters to be healthy more than they were in 2024. That would mitigate the need for right handed power from an outfielder or first baseman. There is a dearth of left handed pitching at the top of the organization, it is a long shot the Moran or Funderburk or Headrick could be effective in the BP. I actually think the Twins should try Headrick as a starter (at St. Paul). Finding an effective lefty reliever amongst the broken toys in free agency would be helpful for sure. I've been a believer that Lewis could be an All-Star third baseman. With the arrival of Brooks Lee, who looks like a natural at third, and Lewis' defensive struggles, maybe the Twins should consider moving Lewis to first base. For the first 130 games of his career, it appeared Lewis' bat would play anywhere, including first base. Miranda would be available to fill either spot, back them up and be used as a principle DH. I like the delayed potential of Austin Martin (and he offers some speed, which the rest of the roster has in short supply). It would be another gamble to slot him in Margot's role, but I would think he would be as effective as Margot was. Depending on others, Willi Castro is kind of a wild card. I think he should start the season as the regular second baseman, but he could be in the outfield as a fourth regular. To answer the headline of this thread, I do think there is room for improvement almost everywhere. I think the Twins will try to handle the weak spots internally with only low level free agent signings. If everything clicks, they are a contender, but much more likely is a major shakeup at the All-Star break or next post season.

My prediction is that at least one of the Twins' free agents everyone considers gone--all but Santana--will return to the team and make the Opening Day roster. In order of likelihood--1) Thielbar 2) Farmer 3) Desclafani 4) Kepler 5) Margot.

Just a note about caught stealing percentages--most of the time a stolen base is on the pitcher, not a catcher. Of all stolen base attempts, a catcher only truly has a chance on maybe 30% of the time. This is especially true when a right hander is on the mound and the Twins probably threw the highest percentage of right handed innings in the majors last year. The way to limit stolen bases is not allow runners on base and to have a lead. I think Vázquez is probably .01 second quicker releasing the ball than Jeffers and might have a little bit stronger arm. In a situation where hundreths decide safe and out, that is significant. That said, Jeffers is about average in today's game as a thrower in limiting stolen bases.

I think Camargo is merely a guy they kept on the roster because in today's game a third catcher is necessary. He wasn't given much of a chance to play because Rocco saw him as less good, both offensively and defensively, than either Vázquez or Jeffers. His numbers at St. Paul were pedestrian. If Vázquez or Jeffers is dealt, the Twins would need to get a major league catcher.

I had uninterrupted TV broadcasts so I didn’t listen to much radio broadcasts, but I thought (in limited exposure) that Atteberry was fine and pretty interesting. Gladden OTOH, has no redeeming value as a broadcaster, either commentary or PxP.

Last year, the team seemed deep and finished strong. This year almost everyone slumped late and the team appeared exhausted at the end of the year. Same manager and pretty much the same coaching staff. Regarding the platooning complaints, the major criticism was not allowing the young lefty hitters a chance to face lefty pitchers. I submit that defense was part of this decision, with Margot, Farmer and Santana all being considered superior to their left handed counterparts (not sure if that is factual with Margot). As was mentioned in the OP, the infield had a +11 DRS with the same guys who struggled so mightily in the field in August/September and gave it all back.

Very interesting posting and the fact that the performance by the same players was so much better until the final quarter of the season is puzzling. They seemed to all fatigue at once and I don’t see any real explanation for it.

If 2024 showed anything, it proved that “you never know” rings true more often than not. José Miranda was largely forgotten when the Twins broke camp, Royce Lewis was thought to be on a superstar track and Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff were questions only because of health and defense. Add in Brooks Lee with a less-than-overwhelming debut and the infield is closer to “hot mess” than top notch. The Twins need to sort out who plays first, second and third with Carlos Correa returning at shortstop. It should be noted that none of the infielders listed in this post even so much as 80 games started at a single position. Oh my. Third base—Miranda played the most innings at third in 2024 mostly because Lewis missed almost the entire first half of the season. Miranda is not a gifted defender, but played defense well enough to be satisfacory. His bat has to be well above average to make him an asset. Lewis missed a lot of time with injuries and really struggled down the stretch. His defense was so-so due to throwing problems. Lee came up and showed good skills and instincts at the hot corner. After a hot start, he slumped as a hitter. One of these guys needs to claim third base. My hope is that Lewis comes to camp ready to break out again and be a star in ‘25, claiming third base for the rest of the decade. Second base—Lee could contend here as well. He showed enough range and instincts to project decent defense at second to project him as a regular second baseman Julien had a dreadful sophomore year, flailing at the plate and showing little improvement in the field. It is way too early to write him off, but he might not start 2025 with the Twins. My pick for primary second baseman to start the season is Willi Castro, until and unless he is needed elsewhere. First base—Miranda could move to first, more or less permanently if Carlos Santana (or someone else outside the organization) isn’t signed. There is little first base depth on the roster or in the high minors except for the oft-injured Alex Kirilloff. I’m hoping for a Miranda/Kirilloff job share with plenty of DH at-bats. Neither health or performance is a sure thing. I am not counting on Lee breaking camp with the Twins. There aren’t many sure things in putting together an infield. Hopefully 2025 will provide some answers to the questions that come out of 2024

I tend to be more pre-Rocco than anti-Rocco, but with all he did all season to protect his players, why did they play like such a tired team in August/September?

Castro was stretched at short and center and the best defenders on the team are Correa and Buxton, so prolonged use of Willi at short and center is going to hurt the defense compared to Buxton and Correa. Willi is okay to above average at second, third and left field. If he plays the majority of the time in those positions he won’t be replacing superior defenders and he’s about league average himself.

It seems everything changed with the TV fiasco. The Twins added López and extended him to add to the expensive long-term contracts for Buxton and Correa. They had Gray on on 9-digit contract, had Polanco and Kepler on fairly expensive (but competitive deals) and added Vázquez and then came the 2023 trading deadline and 2023 off season. The Twins have Ober and Ryan at bargain prices compared to their performance and have a ton of guys in the arbitration cycle. All of those guys will make substantially more if they stay healthy and reasonably productive. They certainly should try to be competitive next year since they figure to have an outstanding top three starters. If they start slowly, we may see the move towards Emma and Jenkins, along with other young players. It's a waste of talent from their best position players.

We didn't know it then, but the death knell for the 2024 Twins probably occurred when Joe Ryan went down. It forced weaker rotation options up the ladder and eventually the toll on both the remaining starters and the bullpen resulted in diminished performance for the entire pitching staff. The Twins pitching wasn't worthy of a playoff spot in August and September and the hitters couldn't bail them out (for sure!!). Three rookies comprised the back end of the rotation in September with mixed results and too many short starts. Simeon Woods Richardson was in the rotation for most of the season. He started 28 games and logged 133+ innings, pitching to a 4.17 ERA. Not bad for a fifth starter, which is where SWR was for the majority of the season. Woods Richardson's stats don't show dominance, but he kept his team in games and showed some veteran moxie for a guy who performed the entire season at age 23. David Festa got a shot and was predictably up and down. He posted good strikeout numbers, didn't walk many, but allowed some big numbers. He worked 64+ big league innings. Finally, Zebby Matthews debuted after putting up great numbers in high A and AA ball (and a brief interlude at St. Paul). On balance, Zebby didn't look ready for the bigs. allowing 51 hits and 11 homers in just 37 innings. Assuming Ryan returns and continues to be a fine starter, the Twins will have a good front three--Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Ryan. It would appear two of last year's rookies would complete the rotation, although Chris Paddack could be considered. I suppose Louie Varland could be considered, but it didn't go well for him as a starter with the Twins last year. Who are the fourth and fifth starters and will there be anyone else under consideration when pitchers and catchers report in February?

It makes it hard to be a fan. A year ago and even at midseason, it seemed like there was a chance to win this year and a pretty good immediate future. Now the club is voluntarily tying one hand behind their back.

If they are all let go, who goes on the 40-man roster? If they drop three or four players in order to pay major league minimum they are giving up before the season starts.

I share your skepticism, but giving Keirsey and Helman a chance during Spring Training is fine given the team’s self-imposed salary constraints.

Santana is a rare one in that he always plays and does some damage, particularly against left handed pitching. Yes, his defense is good (better than any in-house option), but the Twins need more offense particularly against right handers. Kirilloff can get one more chance, but it’s almost certainly his last with the Twins. I still think he can be a good to great hitter, but the sand is coming through the hourglass.

I think that if the Twins don’t look like contenders at the break, many guys will be gone and the next wave (Emma, Jenkins, maybe Keaschal) will be up. Very suspicious of older players breaking in and being good players at 26-28.

Byron Buxton eclipsed the 100 games played mark for only the second time in his career in 2024. While 100 games is a significant amount, it left center field manned by lesser players about 40% of the time. In 2024, the presumed backup was Manuel Margot, but he was not up to the job either defensively or offensively. Willi Castro, Austin Martin and DeShawn Keirsey Jr. all logged time in Buck’s absence. Buxton figures to return next year and it has to be expected that someone else will be in center fora significant number of innings. Who will that player be, and should it be someone else? I’ll add my $.02 at this point. Buxton last year was an All-Star talent as represented by his 3.6 WAR in 102 games. Due to injuries, he’s no longer an All-World defender, but he’s very good with a fielding glove in his left hand. The injury history is just too long to expect a full active year and it is worth noting that two earlier injuries (knee and hip) recurred which cost the bulk of his lost time. I think it is really important to have a good player ready to fill for the times Buxton is out of the lineup. My other thought is that I’m not sold on Keirsey Jr. to be more than a 4A player. He has some speed and is supposed to be a good center fielder, but I don’t think he can hit enough to be trusted for long stretches as the primary center fielder.

No mention of the beaning? Miranda’s performance suffered after he was hit in the helmet. It is tough to count on Miranda after his poor second half. As noted, he has always chased too much and he’s not really a power hitter.

To be consistently competitive is a worthy goal for small and mid market teams IMHO. However, if the idea is to always be looking three years in the future at the expense of the current team is a copout, especially if this is meant to argue against “going for it” when there’s a chance to make a playoff run.

First a couple of housekeeping notes--I am convinced that the Twins will not add significant payroll in 2025. I am less convinced that the current players will all return, but will proceed with the hypothesis that players from the organization will be promoted to provide depth to the 40-man roster and eventually the active roster. I intend to start several threads about questions about the 2025 Twins and rather than make blog entries that few people read or participate in, I'll start them in this forum. Now, on to Willi Castro. Castro got more plate appearances than any other Twin in 2024. He played very well in the first half of the season and displayed record setting versatility, playing in more than 25 games at second base, shortstop, third base, left field and center field. He got an All-Star nod when Carlos Correa went out with an injury. Like much of the team, Willi faded in the second half. His offensive numbers were league average with an OPS+ of 102. Someone with Castro's versatility is worth more than his raw numbers to a team, but his 1.6 WAR in 2024 doesn't justify automatic regular duty. Castro particularly struggled as a right handed hitter, ending the year with an OPS of only .674. Last year, Castro was the #1 relief option at shortstop, at least until Brooks Lee was recalled and was also a top relief option in center field unless he was needed in the infield. The composition of the roster in 2025 might put Willi down the pecking order at those two key defensive positions and free him to play somewhere else on a more or less regular basis. IMHO, I think Castro will be given a more or less regular gig to start 2025 and I think that position will be second base. Other second basemen on the 2024 team include Edouard Julien who may have played his way out of favor or into the minors and Brooks Lee, who would seem to need a bit more time in AAA before he can assume a regular position in the majors. Injuries could change that and Willi could be a regular starter elsewhere. Personally, I think it would be beneficial to have Castro not play quite so much. He stole less than half as many bases as in 2023 and was less effective defensively as well. Starting Castro between 100 and 120 games would seem to be the sweet spot. What is the opinion of Twins Faithful on TD? I hope this can generate some conversation and maybe make us all a bit more optimistic about the coming season.

Disagree totally with your characterization that Jeffers and Lewis had brief periods of success. Jeffers was excellent for the second half of 2023 and even better for the first six weeks or so of 2024, a stretch of about 100 games started. Lewis' first 150-160 games were also excellent. I don't consider that to be a brief period of time. Why you bring up Gordon and Garlick in comparing them to current Twins young players is a mystery to me, particularly Garlick, who was not a young player when acquired and absolutely no one ever saw him as more than a role player for a competitive team. IMHO Gordon was never particularly highly regarded by the current field staff or front office and on balance I think they were right. Finally, minor league fielding statistics are pretty close to meaningless. While I concur that none of the players you have singled out were good on defense in 2024, the guys with range and arms can develop into above-average defenders

As a whole, the players listed haven’t taken off, but OTOH all are relatively young and only Jeffers has reached 1000 plate appearances. Lewis and Jeffers both had extended periods when they looked like All-Stars and Lewis looked like a Top 20 position player. Giving up on players when their value is down is a recipe for disaster for a mid-market team. I expect most of these players will be better in 2025, and if they aren’t, the Twins won’t be relevant.

Plenty of 40-man room and no money to spend. I would expect they don’t non-tender anyone and bring in a bunch of questionable arms and bats. Given the rosy future of three other teams in the division, if the struggle early next year, anyone with a decent salary will be on the block. Sad.