stringer bell

Toronto has hired David Popkins as their hitting coach. I'm sort of surprised that he would find a job this soon. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/blue-jays-hire-david-popkins-as-hitting-coach.html

The Twins also had Billy Hamilton, another example of a one-tool speed player. He actually played in a couple regular season games with about zero impact. To the OP, the Twins don't have a lot of team speed. I'd like to see a team with 8-9 guys who could steal 20 bags and demonstrate good speed by having plus range, but that really isn't in the system. It would appear that Buxton will forever be limited by health to not be a huge SB threat and nobody else has the wheels to really turn a game with their legs. That said, guys with good speed could help their base running woes if they can get on the field--Helman, Keirsey Jr., Martin and Castro are examples. I just don't know if any of those guys (other than Castro) will make the team out of Spring Training, much less get regular playing time. Another key would be for guys to be healthy. Comments in post season threads about Lewis and Lee indicate they weren't 100% particularly during the last quarter of the season and both were regarded as much faster than their sprint speed stats demonstrated.

Remember Bubba Thompson? Speed as the only tool isn’t enough.

On the premise that no immediate help will be brought in, my Plan A would be for Miranda to get a lot of at-bats as the DH and 1B, with perhaps Kirilloff in a platoon. Plan B would be to move Lewis to first base. Plan C would be to giver Severino a shot. On Lewis, in the years since he broke in, he seems to have widened out to the point that he's not an option in the middle infield. Until his second half swoon, the bat would play anywhere. His main problem defensively has been throwing, so a move to first base could get an infielder across the diamond where the throwing wouldn't be much of a problem. If playing first would limit injury risk, that would be a bonus, but Lewis' injuries haven't come as a result of playing at short or third base. The corollary here is that I think Brooks Lee already is the Twins best option as a third baseman not named Willi Castro and with a little more experience, he would probably be a very good to elite option at the hot corner. On Miranda, a long time ago I post something about him needing to be a plus-plus hitter because of his tool kit. He isn't defensively gifted, he doesn't have (any) speed and his power is also below average. When all is going well, the hit tool makes up for that as we saw for a while in 2022 and 2024. I think Miranda will be okay at first, but he doesn't hold a job unless his bat plays well above average. Kirilloff has prospect pedigree and flashes (briefer than Miranda) of being a very good hitter. Because he has an option, I believe he gets one more chance at age 27 to establish himself. I've always been a big fan, but AK has frustrated me probably more than any other Twin of recent vintage.

Probably a good summary of the Rocco years. Going into 2025, there will be Wallner, Larnach and perhaps Julien or Kirilloff in Bucket #1. Bucket #2 would include Martin, Miranda, (maybe) and perhaps Helman (if you're drawing from the 40-man roster). Bucket #4 would be Correa, Lewis, Buxton and Castro. The key addition to move Willi into a hybrid of Bucket 1 and 2 would be the advancement and success of Brooks Lee. If Lee can validate his high draft and prospect status and become an everyday player, then Castro could move back to a platoon alternative, especially if mid season Miranda could also elevate himself to more than a part-time player. That's probably asking for too much, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. I don't know when or if Larnach or Wallner can move away from strict platooning as long as Baldelli is manager. My hope is that he modifies the plan in light of poor bench options from the right side if the Twins don't add someone with "lefty killer" cred. Jenkins and Rodriguez are getting closer and I'd hate to see possible superstars bench 25% of the time because they hit left handed.

I agree that Castro and the Twins would be best served if he played less and was available to be a defensive replacement and pinch runner on more occasions. BBRef had his WAR at 2.6 in '23 when he was used less and used more in his better defensive positions. I realize injury might have contributed to his second half fade, but also there should be other better options more of the time. Castro is an asset and he has outplayed his contract for two consecutive years. Fine tuning his usage could make him more valuable.

Yeah, they have a lot of slow guys. There aren't a lot of guys you'd want to try to steal a base with. I guess the one guy that surprised me is Lee. I thought he had close to average speed. Guys with average speed can be good base runners. Was Diaz the coach responsible for base running?

Left field.

I thought Willi should have been considered for a utility GG last year. He was very good at third and above average in left field and adequate in center in my estimation. This year, he spent more time at second (he was okay), short and center (stretched in those positions). I think/hope that he was slowed by a nagging injury in 2024 and he might be able to bounce back as a force on the bases in 2025. I agree that he provides starter level depth at five positions. He is still youngish and provides needed speed (even at 66 percentile sprint speed). I'm not sure he is a real candidate for extension, but he figures to be worth much more than the projected $6M+ that he will be due in 2025.

To me, depth is what the 2023 Twins had. They withstood injuries to Buxton, Lewis, Polanco, Kirilloff with players like Michael A. Taylor, Kyle Farmer, Solano and Willi Castro--all guys with experience--with Farmer, Solano and Castro able to cover multiple positions. In addition they brought up Wallner and Julien and both thrived. Unless the Twins bring in more experienced players, they might have nine or ten players who would be considered established major leaguers and that would include Julien, Kirilloff and Miranda who finished 2024 on a down note. I would guess Miranda is a lock to go north after spring training, but not Kirilloff or Julien. In fact many think Kirilloff will be non-tendered.

While I don’t disagree with any of the criticisms in the post I quoted, I would guess that 25 of the 29 teams that don’t win the World Series will have the same complaints. Despite the Twins reducing their strikeouts dramatically, they were less effective at scoring runs. Did they swing less “from their heels” or did they have different personnel? I think that they have a type of player they value and speed and athleticism aren’t as high as generating exit velocity. Good pitching masked some of their weaknesses and a poor last quarter of the season at the plate exposed the weak spots.

With the probable exit of Farmer there certainly is room for two utility type players—Eeles and Helman would fit in that category, along with Castro and Martin. I am skeptical of late bloomers and previously unheralded prospects who have a big year in the minors and don’t think it’s a sure thing that they can step up and be contributors to a major league team.

Agree with several posts above. Speed helps, but being smart and alert on the bases is something every player should work on. I’d love to see the club bring in players with more speed and that is the principal reason I want to see more of Martin, Keirsey Jr. and Helman. Also agree that Kepler was so cautious that he neutralized his better than average speed. Lewis might be better next year with a healthy off season. It seems pretty obvious that he was instructed not to push it after returning from injury.

Farmer is another FA. Tonkin and Dobnak would be automatics to be DFA'd IMHO. The questionable ones would be Helman, Keirsey Jr., Blewett, Funderburk, Canterino, Duarte and Winder. I also don't know what the value of Camargo is. It seemed he was recalled only in emergencies and only to come into a game in an emergency. I don't know if there's another catcher to add that would have options, perhaps someone who gets DFA'd next month, but if Camargo gets zero trust both as a hitter and receiver, he isn't worth a roster spot.

Most of the decisions are pretty easy. I would think taking the team option for Alcalá is a no-brainer, no qualifying offers and most of the arbitration decisions are easy, including a non-tender for Tonkin. It seems to me that the 40-man decisions are pretty clear cut as well: A DFA (again) for Dobnak and when he isn't claimed, an outright to Triple A, Raya is the only certainty to be added, while a case can be made for subtracting Canterino, Winder, Duarte, Helman, Keirsey Jr. and Camargo. Even if they keep most or all of the questionable calls, there will be space on the 40-man roster.

It seems that the consensus is that Goldschmidt isn't a realistic option for the question of "who plays first?" for the Twins in 2025. The Twins in-house options for the job are ...........underwhelming. 1) Miranda has played little first base and has been inconsistent as a hitter. He doesn't provide a lot of power and he doesn't draw a lot of walks. He needs to have a high batting average to be a real asset. 2) Kirilloff hasn't managed to have close to a healthy season and he turns 27 soon. His defensive metrics are poor. He's a former top prospect with one option (and last chance) remaining. 3) Julien is inexperienced at first base and doesn't seem to be a natural defender anywhere. His hitting fell off a cliff in 2024, despite being healthy. 4) Severino didn't make it out of AAA last year. He is also seen as a substandard defender wherever he plays and his AAA numbers don't scream promotion to the majors. The Twins might go with the in-house guys because supposedly there is no money in the budget to go outside the organization. This is a risk they shouldn't take IMHO, but is something that might be repeated for other weak spots on the roster.

mlbtraderumors.com has an interesting look at Luis Arraez, who is said to be seeking an extension. Arraez is a fascinating player with three batting championships and elite ability to make contact coupled with low power numbers and limited defensive value. The projected arbitration salary of $14.6M seems really high given his BRef 1.1 WAR.

Yeah, sacrifice all kinds of depth to bring in an aging first baseman. I think having quality behind the starting players is vital to sustaining a good season.

Agreed. Santana was well worth the money he received. If more guys had produced as expected, his above-average numbers would have been a nice bonus. OTOH, banking on another similar season for a 39 year old is a losing bet. My opinion on Santana turns on his pedestrian numbers as a left handed hitter. He's been below average against righties for years and 75% of pitchers are right handed.

I pretty much agree with @Danchat. I would add that it is really time to decide on the role for Varland at 27 years of age. I would also add that Topa hasn't been healthy for much of his professional career, so it is probably a risk, although not as much as Stewart. Left handed pitching is really scarce in the upper levels of the Twins' organization. If they go outside the organization, I think it will be for a left handed pitcher.

I think in retrospect the Ryan injury was the kill shot. Having three good to great starters covers up a lot, but having three rookies and two reliable guys really isn’t enough. The Twins ran out of major league ready depth and that is not on the field staff. Rocco made mistakes IMHO, but not having a capable right handed hitting OF and bullpen and rotation depth ended the Twins season.

On payroll, as has been covered on many threads on this site, the raises from arbitration and the first year of Pablo López' extension eat up almost all of the savings of the contracts of the Twins' free agents. Rocco Baldelli has put together a position player roster which allows for platoons at several positions. Do you propose that whoever is the starting nine start every day if they are healthy. What do the bench players do? When would they play, only when a starter is injured? I'm not a fan of pinch hitting for players in the middle innings and then seeing a lesser player trying to get a big hit in the late innings, but having a lineup reflect the handedness of the pitcher they are facing always has made sense.

If the Twins have Correa back ready to play 150 games, plus Buxton as healthy as he can be plus Lewis rested and refocused, they have the tent poles to be a good to great team. They'd have to "roll sevens" to have those guys play in excess of 130 games each, but .....you never know. On the pitching side, López, Ryan, and Ober is a good to great front of the rotation. Jax, Sands, Stewart and Durán a very good back of the bullpen. With that said, the club could compete next year without adding salary. The reinforcements would have to come from within--Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Rodriguez and maybe someone like Keirsey or Eeles. I don't think the should clear a path for their prospects until they have to and I don't think the start of 2025 is when they have to. If they struggle and again look like they're only better than the White Sox, the mid-to-late 20s guys should be on their way out making room for the younger guys.

How about A-Rod and Jeter. If you can't beat ém let them join.

The Pohlads used the tactics that just about every professional sports owner has used to get a facility. I don't particularly condemn them for it, but I don't think it is a feather in their cap. For three generations, the owners (Pohlads) have mostly stayed out of the spotlight and let their baseball people run the team. I think that is admirable and wise. Behind the scenes, I suppose whoever represented the family has set spending restrictions and sometimes it has appeared to be very shortsighted. However, the payroll cut last year makes more sense in light of the team being put up for sale in the off season. Also, the timing of the sale announcement indicated the TV deal figured into all of this. I suppose it is much easier to make a sale with a defined amount of TV money coming in as opposed to the uncertainty of the last couple of years.