stringer bell

We didn't know it then, but the death knell for the 2024 Twins probably occurred when Joe Ryan went down. It forced weaker rotation options up the ladder and eventually the toll on both the remaining starters and the bullpen resulted in diminished performance for the entire pitching staff. The Twins pitching wasn't worthy of a playoff spot in August and September and the hitters couldn't bail them out (for sure!!). Three rookies comprised the back end of the rotation in September with mixed results and too many short starts. Simeon Woods Richardson was in the rotation for most of the season. He started 28 games and logged 133+ innings, pitching to a 4.17 ERA. Not bad for a fifth starter, which is where SWR was for the majority of the season. Woods Richardson's stats don't show dominance, but he kept his team in games and showed some veteran moxie for a guy who performed the entire season at age 23. David Festa got a shot and was predictably up and down. He posted good strikeout numbers, didn't walk many, but allowed some big numbers. He worked 64+ big league innings. Finally, Zebby Matthews debuted after putting up great numbers in high A and AA ball (and a brief interlude at St. Paul). On balance, Zebby didn't look ready for the bigs. allowing 51 hits and 11 homers in just 37 innings. Assuming Ryan returns and continues to be a fine starter, the Twins will have a good front three--Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Ryan. It would appear two of last year's rookies would complete the rotation, although Chris Paddack could be considered. I suppose Louie Varland could be considered, but it didn't go well for him as a starter with the Twins last year. Who are the fourth and fifth starters and will there be anyone else under consideration when pitchers and catchers report in February?

It makes it hard to be a fan. A year ago and even at midseason, it seemed like there was a chance to win this year and a pretty good immediate future. Now the club is voluntarily tying one hand behind their back.

If they are all let go, who goes on the 40-man roster? If they drop three or four players in order to pay major league minimum they are giving up before the season starts.

I share your skepticism, but giving Keirsey and Helman a chance during Spring Training is fine given the team’s self-imposed salary constraints.

Santana is a rare one in that he always plays and does some damage, particularly against left handed pitching. Yes, his defense is good (better than any in-house option), but the Twins need more offense particularly against right handers. Kirilloff can get one more chance, but it’s almost certainly his last with the Twins. I still think he can be a good to great hitter, but the sand is coming through the hourglass.

I think that if the Twins don’t look like contenders at the break, many guys will be gone and the next wave (Emma, Jenkins, maybe Keaschal) will be up. Very suspicious of older players breaking in and being good players at 26-28.

Byron Buxton eclipsed the 100 games played mark for only the second time in his career in 2024. While 100 games is a significant amount, it left center field manned by lesser players about 40% of the time. In 2024, the presumed backup was Manuel Margot, but he was not up to the job either defensively or offensively. Willi Castro, Austin Martin and DeShawn Keirsey Jr. all logged time in Buck’s absence. Buxton figures to return next year and it has to be expected that someone else will be in center fora significant number of innings. Who will that player be, and should it be someone else? I’ll add my $.02 at this point. Buxton last year was an All-Star talent as represented by his 3.6 WAR in 102 games. Due to injuries, he’s no longer an All-World defender, but he’s very good with a fielding glove in his left hand. The injury history is just too long to expect a full active year and it is worth noting that two earlier injuries (knee and hip) recurred which cost the bulk of his lost time. I think it is really important to have a good player ready to fill for the times Buxton is out of the lineup. My other thought is that I’m not sold on Keirsey Jr. to be more than a 4A player. He has some speed and is supposed to be a good center fielder, but I don’t think he can hit enough to be trusted for long stretches as the primary center fielder.

No mention of the beaning? Miranda’s performance suffered after he was hit in the helmet. It is tough to count on Miranda after his poor second half. As noted, he has always chased too much and he’s not really a power hitter.

To be consistently competitive is a worthy goal for small and mid market teams IMHO. However, if the idea is to always be looking three years in the future at the expense of the current team is a copout, especially if this is meant to argue against “going for it” when there’s a chance to make a playoff run.

First a couple of housekeeping notes--I am convinced that the Twins will not add significant payroll in 2025. I am less convinced that the current players will all return, but will proceed with the hypothesis that players from the organization will be promoted to provide depth to the 40-man roster and eventually the active roster. I intend to start several threads about questions about the 2025 Twins and rather than make blog entries that few people read or participate in, I'll start them in this forum. Now, on to Willi Castro. Castro got more plate appearances than any other Twin in 2024. He played very well in the first half of the season and displayed record setting versatility, playing in more than 25 games at second base, shortstop, third base, left field and center field. He got an All-Star nod when Carlos Correa went out with an injury. Like much of the team, Willi faded in the second half. His offensive numbers were league average with an OPS+ of 102. Someone with Castro's versatility is worth more than his raw numbers to a team, but his 1.6 WAR in 2024 doesn't justify automatic regular duty. Castro particularly struggled as a right handed hitter, ending the year with an OPS of only .674. Last year, Castro was the #1 relief option at shortstop, at least until Brooks Lee was recalled and was also a top relief option in center field unless he was needed in the infield. The composition of the roster in 2025 might put Willi down the pecking order at those two key defensive positions and free him to play somewhere else on a more or less regular basis. IMHO, I think Castro will be given a more or less regular gig to start 2025 and I think that position will be second base. Other second basemen on the 2024 team include Edouard Julien who may have played his way out of favor or into the minors and Brooks Lee, who would seem to need a bit more time in AAA before he can assume a regular position in the majors. Injuries could change that and Willi could be a regular starter elsewhere. Personally, I think it would be beneficial to have Castro not play quite so much. He stole less than half as many bases as in 2023 and was less effective defensively as well. Starting Castro between 100 and 120 games would seem to be the sweet spot. What is the opinion of Twins Faithful on TD? I hope this can generate some conversation and maybe make us all a bit more optimistic about the coming season.

Disagree totally with your characterization that Jeffers and Lewis had brief periods of success. Jeffers was excellent for the second half of 2023 and even better for the first six weeks or so of 2024, a stretch of about 100 games started. Lewis' first 150-160 games were also excellent. I don't consider that to be a brief period of time. Why you bring up Gordon and Garlick in comparing them to current Twins young players is a mystery to me, particularly Garlick, who was not a young player when acquired and absolutely no one ever saw him as more than a role player for a competitive team. IMHO Gordon was never particularly highly regarded by the current field staff or front office and on balance I think they were right. Finally, minor league fielding statistics are pretty close to meaningless. While I concur that none of the players you have singled out were good on defense in 2024, the guys with range and arms can develop into above-average defenders

As a whole, the players listed haven’t taken off, but OTOH all are relatively young and only Jeffers has reached 1000 plate appearances. Lewis and Jeffers both had extended periods when they looked like All-Stars and Lewis looked like a Top 20 position player. Giving up on players when their value is down is a recipe for disaster for a mid-market team. I expect most of these players will be better in 2025, and if they aren’t, the Twins won’t be relevant.

Plenty of 40-man room and no money to spend. I would expect they don’t non-tender anyone and bring in a bunch of questionable arms and bats. Given the rosy future of three other teams in the division, if the struggle early next year, anyone with a decent salary will be on the block. Sad.

He’s on the border of Super 2. I think he’ll qualify for arbitration.

Coaching changes are like putting a Band-aid on a large open wound. It might cover up the worst, but it doesn’t cure or heal. The Twins didn’t have enough talent to deal with late-season injuries and ineffectiveness They finished fourth in their division and need to get better without increasing payroll, according to reports. I don’t think any new coach will be a miracle worker.

Those of you looking back can say you were right to trade Julien, but what does that prove and what does that say about Julien's future? I guess I get sick of "I told you so" IRL and more so on the interwebs. It doesn't make sense to let a guy go for minimum value after he demonstrated well above average to elite numbers in 2023. This is true for Julien and it is true for Kirilloff. It was true for Larnach and Miranda going into this year. All indications are that the club will keep payroll down next year and most of their savings from expiring free-agent contracts will be eaten up by pay raises to existing players. Having Julien, Kirilloff and Lee all starting in St. Paul next year to fill in when injuries occur or when players struggle. It likely will be the last shot for Edouard with the Twins.

To extend on my previous comment, this was a way to keep payroll down for 2024 and presumably 2025, since the Twins would be able to keep all five guys on arbitration salaries in 2025, if they performed well. I suppose they didn't think all five would succeed, but going 0-fer with those five guys made the bullpen a weakness most of the season. Every team deals with injuries for their pitching staff. The Twins took chances on guys with substantial injury histories and crapped out. Topa was coming off a healthy season with excellent results, so he was probably the surest bet and he missed 157 games.

In 2024 Twins bet on acquiring older (over 30) pitchers who were under team control and therefore didn’t have big salaries. This included Topa, Steven Okert, Josh Staumont and Jay Jackson, along with the returning Brock Stewart. Injuries got Stewart and Topa and the other three guys were ineffective.

Eight games to go and Lee is on the active major league roster despite a pretty bad slump since returning from injury. I think he would have been better served by staying in St. Paul all summer, but injuries necessitated his recall. He's made plenty of defensive mistakes, but I think he has the skill set to be an acceptable shortstop and a really good third baseman and probably a good second baseman as well. Figuring out the defensive placement of the Twins' best hitters will be a next-year's problem I guess. It wouldn't surprise me if Lee doesn't make the team out of ST next season, but he'll get his chances and I would expect far better results in 2025.

I would say that middle-of-the-diamond defense is highly regarded by the Twins (and everyone in MLB). Much less so for the corners. Absence due to injuries to Buxton and Correa have shown how valuable their defense is to the current team. Personally, I don't have a problem with several players moving around if they are able to do that. I would say that Willi has shown he is capable in a few spots and acceptable in a couple more. IMHO, Lee needed all season in St. Paul not only to hone his hitting, but improve his defense and the same is true for Austin Martin defensively--with work he could/should be a decent left fielder and acceptable in center, but I don't think he got the reps to be comfortable and it showed this year. Another defensive disappointment has been Margot, who hasn't been able to adjust to being much less speedy and athletic than he was prior to his leg injuries. If ever someone was an "old 29" it is Margot. Primary third basemen Lewis and Miranda left something to be desired. I think Miranda has worked hard at third and is adequate, but he doesn't have first rate defensive tools and Lewis needs time at third (or whatever position he ends up at) and specific work on footwork and throwing if he continues to be a third baseman.

Logging that MLB service time one day at a time.

Tigers won in extras, Royals got trounced. The Twins control their own destiny against the Royals. Mariners up early as well. The postponement means López will start tomorrow and then Friday, but wouldn’t be available to pitch Game 1 of a first round series. If they move Ober to Tuesday, he would pitch the finale against the Orioles and if they have a playoff spot locked up, he could pitch Game 1. If Ober has to pitch regular season Game 162, I guess SWR would start the opener if they make the playoffs.

I think that every team in baseball will lament their lack of situational hitting. The Twins have been bad, but most teams are. The Red Sox performance last night with seemingly infinite chances to win the game would be Exhibit A. The personnel on this team is not suited to a running game--full stop. The leader in steals is again Castro, but he's 14 for 23, not a winning percentage. They have made huge progress in making contact and last night was a prime example. However, in the end making soft contact doesn't pay off and currently many Twins are not making hard contact. The list of hitters that are struggling is long--Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, Vázquez, Santana, The list that is doing well is pretty short. That is similar to the first twenty games of the year, but the problem now is exacerbated by a rookie-laden starting rotation in uncharted territory and an overworked and suspect bullpen.

mlbtraderumors.com has an item that Devers might be done for the year. It appeared last night that he couldn't get the ball across the infield and he didn't look good at the plate, so I am not surprised.

Pablo just about has to go seven innings today. The Red Sox and Twins should be equally worn down, but the Twins have played three straight extra-inning games.