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nova_twins

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Everything posted by nova_twins

  1. nova_twins
    Why not just acquire Bobby Witt instead? lol
  2. nova_twins
    For sure, the Twins need to draft well, make good international signings, etc., but that's just not the problem right now in the organization. It's farm system is already above average in depth and quality.
  3. nova_twins
    Teams are very good at protecting the right players at this point, why pick some random pitcher that isn't better than a bunch of existing minor league arms?
  4. nova_twins
    I love following prospects but there is no number of prospects that can guarantee MLB success -- you could look back at prospect snapshots of several organizations combined, say 150 "legit" prospects -- and easily fail in many cases to produce a good MLB team. The Twins need to improve their MLB club. Picking up a few random prospects is beyond pointless.
  5. nova_twins
    There is no rational reason to trade Buxton, it's such a bad idea I don't even worry about it happening.
  6. nova_twins
    Ober has minimal value at this point, he didn't look good down the stretch and has a long history of injuries during his career. I would trade him for a marginal prospect and move on. SWR currently projects as a 5th starter, not much trade value there either. I do think he's a breakout candidate but other clubs can't assume that happens. Lots of really bad trade speculation in this thread, other GMs have no interest in parting with upside for backend starters.
  7. nova_twins
    The case against O'Hearn is that he's maybe around a 0.5 - 1 win upgrade to the current roster and not worth using up what little money is available. Very well might not be realistic financially. But he does have positives. Last season he was actually a little above average in running speed, so he does have some athleticism. Being able to focus on only 1B would undoubtedly be helpful as well. There's also an indirect upgrade by letting Clemens backup 2B and 3B against right handers.
  8. nova_twins
    The Twins will have leftover money from the #3 pick to sign multiple HS players in the $2 million dollar range. Regardless of anything else it will be a hugely important draft for the organization.
  9. nova_twins
    Not at all, in fact it's the exact opposite - crying over every tiny issue obscures real problems.
  10. nova_twins
    I don't post much because there's too much negativity and uninformed discussion on here. I was fine with the deadline moves and don't think falvey or Rocco etc are incompetent. This news is really bad, just objectively disastrous. The Pohlads decided to have their cake and eat it too, and the only way to thread that needle is to run low payrolls. Ultimately this may just be the first step in giving up control once the labor situation is resolved and buyers have more confidence. But that still yields a bad situation in the short term.
  11. nova_twins
    What else can the front office do except be confident in their work? Resign? Even if some people did you can't turn over the whole organization. I honestly don't understand the premise of the article. The reason the Twins traded relievers is because that's who was available to trade. Additionally, relievers are historically volatile in terms of health and performance. Under new ownership, the 2026 bullpen could be rebuilt, not to elite status but adequate. Without new ownership there's no hope anyway.
  12. nova_twins
    This is cherry picking. In 2015 the Marlins ranked 30th in payroll and in 2016 they ranked 26th. At an overall level payroll did not drop.
  13. nova_twins
    That's just not true. Payroll went up and then as a strategy, used by other clubs, in year 3 they blew up the failed core and started over. There are never guarantees but anyone who buys the current core is going to want to try and make the playoffs.
  14. nova_twins
    It's very unlikely new ownership will come in running low payrolls, bordering on inconceivable. If an ownership group puts up 1.5-2 billion for their shiny new toy, they're going to want to win. The biggest risk is actually that the owners will make bad personnel decisions, or will interfere with baseball decisions. If a sale happens, payroll will go up, probably by a very significant amount.
  15. nova_twins
    Yeah they're just screwed with Paddack. Not even sure what the upside scenario is at this point. He comes back near the end to hopefully salvage some small amount of trade value? (meaning another club would pay a portion of his salary, certainly no one is taking all 7.5) If he could hold up physically out of the bullpen, might get some 2025 value there, but that seems doubtful too.
  16. nova_twins
    Hitting in the Bigs is hard, so any prospect can be doubted in that regard . . . Look at how Wyatt Langford has struggled this year, for one example. Or Torkelson completely busting. Winokur was a known commodity for the 2023 draft but it seems that other clubs weren't very interested at the $1.5 million price point, which is mid 2nd round money. With his 120 RC+ in A-ball at 19, Winokur is outpacing most similar 2023 signees and definitely tracking up in prospect status. Important to keep in mind that ceiling is disproportionately valuable, and Winokur has that.
  17. nova_twins
    Camargo has a 66 RC+ in AAA so it's hard for me to see what the Twins can do to replace either one. If they could move all of Vazquez' salary, they may well do it, but even with this hot streak I'm not sure how likely that is. They could trade for a catcher but I'm skeptical that's the position they would use surplus to target. Maybe.
  18. nova_twins
    Wallner will never be an asset against LHP. In-season ZiPS projects his 'true talent' as 123 RC+, standard corner platoon bat.
  19. nova_twins
    Per Fangraphs, Houston gave up a 50 FV player and a 45 FV, plus a throw in, which is definitely a significant price for Kikuchi unless you're convinced that for the first time in his career, he'll actually be good rather than just seeming like he should be good. Ownership cutting payroll had two impacts here - first limiting the options, but also they have made it extremely problematic to trade away prospects, because going forward even mediocre free agents are too expensive. I don't expect the Twins to give up significant prospect capital in any deals going forward, unless they swap one cheap player for another for positional reasons.
  20. nova_twins
    I like the 3rd and 4th picks. Overall this reminds me of 2021 when they took multiple guys that they then traded early in their pro careers. Everyone knows what's coming, a barrage of mid major starters, a strategy I like (also what a lot of teams do if you look at the numbers).
  21. nova_twins
    Culpepper isn't underslot. DeBarge maybe a little, but that's not super valuable in a weak draft.
  22. nova_twins
    Not a fan of selecting two very similar, low ceiling players like that. It's supposedly a bad draft so maybe there are legit problems with the 'upside' choices but still . . . Particularly odd given that the org is a little light in OF depth.
  23. nova_twins
    The Twins seem increasingly comfortable building depth in the middle and late rounds, so I would guess they'll focus on upside with their early picks. They're being linked in media to a lot of mid-upside college hitters like Waldschmidt, which is consistent with their drafting history, but I'm more inclined to see someone like Gillen, or even Brecht, college player but higher risk/ceiling.
  24. nova_twins
    The draft results take so long to ultimately play out that it's not easy to evaluate. One wrong way of doing it is cherry picking, like this article. What if someone got in a car accident, would that make it a bad pick in retrospect? The Sabato pick was under unusual circumstances. Pitchers get hurt. Etc. The relevant question for analysis is how the Twins are drafting compared to other teams.
  25. nova_twins
    Keaschall is already at AA, it's odd that wasn't updated in the article since it's already been a few days and the article was just posted. Also the OF position he's trying is CF, which is a premium position and not like being hidden in LF. He had some injury before the season which impacted his usage as well. Anyway I like him a lot as a prospect, he has good athleticism and has produced consistently in his career.
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