ashbury

Sasaki's agency telling all but three teams they aren't final candidates also serves as an indication of sorts.

Don't top bullpens also not lead the majors in inherited runner scoring percentage with 41% the year before?

Brock Stewart has never pitched as many as 35 major league innings in a season. He's already 33 years old. To expect a pitcher with this kind of resume to be a major reason that the Twins' bullpen could be one of the best is just wishful thinking. Aside from that, with Cleveland's bullpen mostly intact from last year, I don't see how our top-4 plus a cast of thousands can be considered on a par with the best.

I will miss him a lot more than I will miss filmmaker David Lynch who also died today.

Here's what's on the Twins' official site at the moment. Senior Vice President, General Manager: Jeremy Zoll Vice President, Assistant General Manager: Daniel Adler Vice President, Hitting Development & Acquisitions: Alex Hassan Vice President, Amateur Scouting: Sean Johnson Vice President, Baseball Operations Strategy & Innovation: Josh Kalk I assume some new wording will be in place shortly. But already having VP in their titles makes for a relatively small actual change, and with no one jumping in the hierarchy.

Feels to me like the outcome starts with Minnesota getting outcoached. And it's not as though the Rams had some kind of super game plan - they just copied what the Lions figured out the week before. KOC and company didn't seem to have a counterpunch in mind that would make an overly aggressive defense pay 5 yards at a time. Instead they seemed to have blind loyalty to an offensive line that was simply not up to the task of running a long-pass oriented game plan. Time after time, Darnold rejected the choice of throwing short when protection was collapsing; I doubt it was mere stubbornness on his part, but adherence to a plan ("they'll get open if you are just patient enough") that we can see had no chance of success because of lack of personnel up front. Put Darnold behind an offensive line like Kurt Warner was blessed with, back in the day, and sure, he could have stood around and waited for the receiver of his choice to get open, but those magic setups for QBs are rare. I didn't like the choice to go for it on fourth down late in the second quarter. Just punt it and plan to go to the locker room down 17-3 and regroup. Instead, they thought the chance of going to halftime down only 17-6 was worth enough to gamble against it turning out the way it did and lose the game for all intents and purposes right on the spot. Getting it to 17-10 with a touchdown was becoming a longshot at that point anyway, setting aside the fourth-down situation. There's times when going for it on fourth and two near midfield makes sense, but not there. That play was needless desperation disguised as aggressiveness, high risk and low reward, and it cost them.

FangRaphs provides Zips projections for Kirilloff and Margot in their Twins writeup, so I don't know how much care is invested in the process, either. (Or else I am misreading.)

Would we rather live in a possible universe or one that is complete fantasy?

You said: Would you be capable of writing a daily sports column in a newspaper somewhere, if asked? ChatGPT said: Yes, I would be capable of writing a daily sports column for a newspaper, if asked. I can offer insights on a wide range of sports, analyze games and player performances, discuss trends, and provide predictions, all while adapting to a particular style or voice that fits the publication's tone. Would you like an example of how that might look? You said: Sure. ChatGPT said: Here’s an example of a daily sports column: Title: The Resilience of the Underdog – How Small Markets Are Rewriting the Playbook By [Your Columnist's Name] January 13, 2025 In a league defined by superstars, high payrolls, and big-market dominance, the rise of small-market teams is nothing short of exhilarating. Whether it's the NFL’s rise of the Detroit Lions or the MLB’s surprise playoff run by the Baltimore Orioles, there's something uniquely satisfying about seeing the underdog emerge from the shadows and challenge the status quo. Take the NFL, for instance. As the season hurtles toward its playoff climax, the Lions are a case study in perseverance and savvy management. After decades of mediocrity, Detroit has built a team that is tough, disciplined, and—most impressively—dangerous. Head coach Dan Campbell has instilled a culture of grit, and quarterback Jared Goff, often dismissed as a journeyman, has found a home in the Motor City. It’s a story of vision meeting execution. The Lions' success isn't the result of some high-dollar free agent splurge but rather a smart draft strategy and building around the right players. The NFL’s competitive balance system has given teams like Detroit an equal shot at success, and the Lions have seized it. If they can make it to the Super Bowl this year, they’ll prove that you don’t need the flashiest roster to make a legitimate title run. Similarly, in Major League Baseball, the Orioles’ surprising ascension to postseason relevance is a testament to patience and smart player development. After years of languishing near the bottom of the standings, Baltimore has emerged as a powerhouse, with an eye-popping combination of homegrown talent and savvy trades. The emergence of players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson is a reminder of how effective drafting and player development can be when teams prioritize sustainable success over quick fixes. These stories are more than just anomalies—they are becoming the new norm. The small-market teams are finding ways to not only survive but thrive in a landscape where it often seems that money talks louder than anything else. For fans in places like Detroit and Baltimore, these victories are more than just wins on the scoreboard—they are symbols of hope and validation that, yes, even the most overlooked teams can rise to the top. As we look ahead to the postseason in both sports, the question becomes: is this the beginning of a broader trend? Could more small-market teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA, or the Milwaukee Brewers in MLB, continue to challenge the traditional powerhouses? The rise of these underdogs could lead to a more balanced and unpredictable future for American sports, where success is determined more by strategy and heart than by the size of the wallet. It’s a thrilling thought for fans everywhere, especially those who’ve long watched from the sidelines as the same elite teams dominated. The story of this season, regardless of the ultimate champions, is one of resilience and opportunity. So here's to the small markets that refuse to fade into the background. You’re not just surviving the modern sports era—you’re changing it. This is just a snapshot of the kind of content I could write, blending analysis with storytelling while maintaining a sense of excitement and relevance. Would this fit the kind of column you had in mind?

By my memory, this managerial strategy was an aberration, as though the team was trying to encourage Max to bring out other parts of his game besides just the homers. Turns out, thanks to a glance at bb-ref.com, he moved around quite a bit in the batting order but the single greatest number of plate appearances he had during his career so far has been at... leadoff. (By a small margin.) Not an aberration or momentary whim at all. But here's the funny thing. Guess where he achieved his best OPS during his career. Right, at leadoff. .810, and he didn't top .800 batting anywhere else. There's statistical bias in this, plus chicken-and-egg - was Max surprisingly comfortable at the top of the order, or did the manager put him there when only he thought Max was going well? Who knows. But Leadoff Kepler was nowhere near the fiasco that Leadoff Margot turned ou-... hey, wait, not to threadjack or anything, but guess what Manuel Margot's OPS was as a leadoff hitter for the Twins? .832. Gimme more of that L/R leadoff platoon please. 😀

It's the walks. That's what's polarizing for me. I look for comps to other players, and really can't find any. Judge and Soto get lots of walks now, but not like ERod. MLB average BB% was 8.2 this past season. Judge's rate was 18.9 and Soto's was 18.1, the two best in the majors. They drew nowhere near these rates when they were in the minors - it developed as pitchers gained respect, presumably. Our guy drew walks 25.1% of the time at AA this past year. It was even higher a couple of years ago at single-A, a little lower the next year at high-A. 25% is just not sustainable, unless he's capable of being a completely new kind of player. Maybe he is, but it seems like an unwise bet. So he'll probably always walk a lot, but what becomes of the portion of walks that seem destined to vanish into thin air? Do they turn into called third strikes, when he faces pitchers who can put the ball where they want? turn into swinging third strikes, as he finds himself in unaccustomed counts due to better pitching? turn into weak contact that harms his batting average? turn into the current mix of results he currently has? I am not confident at all about that last one. The closest comp I found, a year ago when I was delving into the question, was actually Eduoard Julien. Not just within the Twins' farm system, but anywhere. Julien himself is still an open question, after one successful year in the majors - and then one year that was, um, not successful, in ways that his approach to the plate made maddening. And yet, ERod has already defied my expectations from a couple of years ago when his extreme walk rate became a topic of discussion. So I really don't know what to expect. We'll just have to wait and find out. No way would I trade him. I'm a prospect hugger to begin with, but he's above and beyond in that regard. There's a 10% chance he turns into something really special at the plate. There's also a 10% chance his approach doesn't translate to the majors at all. Unlike with most minor league prospects, I'm skeptical about my usual minors-to-majors translations of his stats. IOW, polarizing.

"Better Lucky Than Good." -- Mrs Ash just now

DOINK!

Ah, so you mean the Orioles will make a trade, not that the Twins-Orioles specifically will trade. I was confused by the word "they".

I feel liberated to snark in either direction as conditions dictate!

Third time's the charm, LOL.

Didn't tune in in time to see the earlier play where they went for it instead of taking the points, but if it was an error, then this one feels like just compounding it.

Then Falvey will be able to spend more on free agents, just with a new team. He won't be sidelined for longer than the next off-season, as some team with deeper pockets will like his resume. St Peter, yeah, he gone.

Involving Pablo Lopez? Or a smaller-scale trade?

Hustle Coach Gettin' After It Coach Battlin' One's Tail Off Coach Headfirst Sliding Coach All these positions are currently open, so he can take his pick.

Deal from positional oversupply only after you've established positional oversupply. Cartaya is a project at this point.

Yes, I still remember the lobotomy they required when I too moved into the Bay State. / At least, I think I remember it....

Concur. I keep going back to the MLBTR article, 5 days old now so possibly out of date, which had a headline of "Sale Of Twins Could Be Reached By Opening Day" but the body of the article had a more circumspect "a sale agreement could be in place as soon as Opening Day." Anyone who has bought or sold a home has had a similar situation - you get an agreement signed, and then there is a period of time until closing, during which any of several steps could still fall through. I tend to go with the "agreement in place" wording until we hear something more definitive; any loosening of the payroll pursestrings will not likely occur just due to an agreement being put in motion. Of course, it is possible that the agreement IS already in place and due diligence is underway and we won't hear more until the "closing" date is much nearer - buying a ballclub isn't totally similar to buying a house and the Twins aren't a publicly traded corporation where transparency is required.

Someone in the front office talks about payroll? Let's switch to our personal pet peeve. Which players are you talking about, anyway? Max Kepler played 100% of his defensive innings in RF in 2024. Byron Buxton was in CF when he played. Carlos Correa was at SS when available. Carlos Santana was at 1B, and Jeffers and Vazquez both were at catcher except for a couple of emergency stints at 3B for the latter. Royce Lewis had 3B to himself except he got injured for a long while and then in September they decided to try him elsewhere; his backup Jose Miranda played there basically all the time during his absence. There was some DHing mixed in for several players since there wasn't a fulltime DH on the roster. That leaves LF and 2B, which might have been more stable except for the injuries elsewhere which opened up temporary needs. The regulars played where they belonged, except when they got injured or played themselves out of a starting role and got sent to AAA. If the complaint was that backups like Willi Castro and Manuel Margot and Austin Martin moved around a bit, well, that's the nature of being utility players. It's not like the manager said, "hey, lets swap 2B and 3B just for the fun of it, this coming week, then we'll switch back." They tried several people in CF in Buxton's absence, and no one grabbed the opportunity.